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Botswana Population Projections 2011-2026

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Botswana Population Projections 2011-2026 STATISTICS BOTSWANA BOTSWANA POPULATION PROJECTIONS 2011 – 2026 Statistics Botswana. Private Bag 0024 Botswana Tel: (267) 367 1300. Fax: (267) 395 2201. Email: [email protected] Website: www.cso.gov.bw POPULATION PROJECTIONS FOR BOTSWANA 2011-2026 Published by STATISTICS BOTSWANA Private Bag 0024, Gaborone Phone: (267)3671300, Fax: (267) 3952201 Email: [email protected] Website: www.cso.gov.bw Contact: Census and Demographic Analysis Unit Census and Demography Division Printed and obtainable from STATISTICS BOTSWANA Private Bag 0024, Gaborone Phone: (267)3671300, Fax: (267) 3952201 November 2015 COPYRIGHT RESERVED PREFACE This Population Projections Report is another product of a series of reports that are derived from the 2011 Population and Housing Census data. It is one of the main volumes in the 2011 Population and Housing Census series of publications. The report contains the projected counts of the future population. Unlike in the previous projections, which projected for a 30 year period, the current report projects the population for the next 15 years using the 2011 census data as the base population. These population projections are presented at national, district. A report on locality population projections will be published separately. The main purpose of producing population projections is to provide an estimate of the future population as a common framework for use in planning, policy formulation and decision making in various sectors of the economy. This would assist the planning process in presenting a future outlook of the population. This includes among others; informing the allocation of the resources from the central government to local areas and plan ahead for the provision of servies. I hope you will find this publication useful for planning and other purpose. Anna Majelantle STATISTICIAN GENERAL November 2015 POPULATION PROJECTIONS FOR BOTSWANA 2011-2026 i Contents PREFACE..................................................................................................................................................i EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.....................................................................................................................................................vi CHAPTER 1........................................................................................................................................................................1 1.0 INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................................1 1.1.1 The Need for Population Projections.................................................................................................................1 1.1.2 Type of Projections.............................................................................................................................................1 1.1.3 Review of Documents on Demographic Indicators Relevant to the Projections.....................................1 CHAPTER 2........................................................................................................................................................................3 2.0 FERTILITY AND MORTALITY RE-ANALYSIS.........................................................................................................3 2.1 A Re-Analysis and Estimation of Fertility from the 2001 and 2011 Censuses.........................................4 2.2: A Re-Analysis and Estimation of mortality from the 2001 and 2011 Censuses............................................4 2.2.2 Estimation of Childhood and Adult Mortality from Children Ever Born and Maternal/Paternal Orphanhood................................................................................................................................8 2.3 Computing Net-Migration from the 2001 and 2011 Censuses....................................................................11 CHAPTER 3......................................................................................................................................................................12 3.0 METHODOLOGY................................................................................................................................................12 3.1 Approaches to the Projections.......................................................................................................................12 3.1.1 The Cohort Component Method....................................................................................................................12 3.1.2 Issues in the Cohort Component Method.....................................................................................................12 3.1.3 The Ratio Method of projecting the district populations.............................................................................13 3.2 Projections Scenarios.......................................................................................................................................13 3.3 Projections Assumptions...................................................................................................................................14 3.4 Base and End Year of the Projections............................................................................................................16 CHAPTER 4......................................................................................................................................................................17 4.0 RESULTS...............................................................................................................................................................17 4.1 Projected Absolute Numbers..........................................................................................................................17 4.2 Projected Age-Sex Distributions.......................................................................................................................17 4.3 Projected Key Demographic Indicators........................................................................................................17 4.4 Projected District Populations..........................................................................................................................17 4.5 Urban-Rural Projections....................................................................................................................................17 CHAPTER 5.....................................................................................................................................................................18 5.0 DISCUSSION, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS..............................................................................18 5.1 Discussion and Conclusion..............................................................................................................................18 6.0 REFERENCES......................................................................................................................................................93 7.0 APPENDICES........................................................................................................................................................20 Appendix 1: Projected Absolute National Population Size......................................................................................21 Appendix 2: Age-Sex, High Scenario 1a Projections................................................................................................22 Appendix 3: Age-Sex, High Scenario 1b Projections.................................................................................................23 Appendix 4: Age-Sex, Medium Scenario Projections................................................................................................25 Appendix 5: Age-Sex, Low Scenario Projections.....................................................................................................27 Appendix 6: Age-Sex, HIV/Aids Scenario Projections...............................................................................................29 Appendix 7: Single Year-Age Distributions, (0-30 Years, Both Sexes), High Scenario 1a Projections..................31 Appendix 8: Single Year-Age Distributions (0-30 Years, Both Sexes), High Scenario 1b Projections...................33 Appendix 9: Single Year-Age Distributions (0-30 Years, Both Sexes), Medium Scenario Projections..................34 Appendix 10: Single Year-Age Distributions (0-30 Years, Both Sexes), Low Scenario Projections............................36 Appendix 11: Single Year-Age Distributions (0-30 Years, Both Sexes), HIV/AIDS Scenario Projections...............37 Appendix 12: Demographic Indicators: High Scenario 1a Projections*...............................................................38 Appendix 13: Demographic Indicators: High Scenario 1b Projections................................................................39 Appendix 14: Demographic Indicators: Medium Scenario Projections...............................................................39 Appendix 15: Demographic Indicators: Low Scenario Projections......................................................................40 POPULATION PROJECTIONS FOR BOTSWANA 2011-2026 ii Appendix 16: Demographic Indicators: HIV/AIDS Scenario Projections...............................................................40 Appendix 17: District Projections: High Scenario.....................................................................................................41
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