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Erdogan's Snap Election Gamble

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Erdogan's Snap Election Gamble Erdoğan’s Snap Election Gamble: Too Little, Too Late? © 2018 IAI by Sinan Ekim Turkish President Recep Tayyip This rush to usher in the new system is Erdoğan announced on 18 April that in many ways a telling sign of weakness Turkey’s elections would be pushed on behalf of the Turkish president. If ISSN 22532-6570 forward by eighteen months. With the Erdoğan had waited, the vote might date set for 24 June, the vote will include not have worked in his favour. Yet, both parliamentary and presidential recent developments show that fast- elections, a first in the history of the forwarding the elections may not yield Turkish Republic. the expected results either. The vote will also complete Turkey’s After rising to power in 2002, Erdoğan’s political transition underway since the Justice and Development Party (AKP) constitutional referendum of April 2017, tripled the Turkey’s GDP by 2011, which sanctioned several amendments winning successive national elections to Turkey’s constitution. These will with an increased vote-share ever effectively institutionalize a populist, since. Indeed, a more robust economy one-man system of government that and nationwide improvements in jeopardizes legislative and judicial welfare standards were hallmarks of the independence and consolidates powers party’s earlier years in power. in the office of the president.1 The new system would have entered into Today, Turkish finances are again force in November 2019, but will now coming under severe strain. effectively take shape after the elections Government liquidity is barely enough a few weeks from now. to keep the economy afloat for another four months.2 Turkey’s economy is 1 Sinan Ekim and Kemal Kirişci, “The Turkish constitutional referendum, explained”, in Order from Chaos, 13 April 2017, http://brook. 2 “Gezici: AK Parti ve MHP meclisteki gs/2o21N7y. çoğunluğunu yitirecek” (Gezici: AKP and MHP IAI COMMENTARIES 18 | 32 - JUNE 2018 IAI COMMENTARIES Sinan Ekim is Junior Researcher at the Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI). 1 Erdoğan’s Snap Election Gamble: Too Little, Too Late? tittering into a crisis, which risks a strengthening dollar and a widening snowballing into a full-blown recession. current account deficit, the Turkish lira is now in a free-fall.5 Erdoğan is therefore seeking a speedy transition to the new constitutional The government is exploring ways order, solidifying his authority before to improve the economic situation. the looming crisis erupts with full Pledges for a restructured system of strength. Yet, his efforts may be too taxation, more tax-breaks, as well as © 2018 IAI little, too late. lower inflation, interest rates and a current account deficit – as outlined in The downward economic trend is the AKP’s campaign manifesto6 – are already taking its toll: unemployment wide off the mark, however. Turkey is growing, government spending needs a fundamental shift in economic remains high, a 300 billion dollar foreign and monetary policy, including debt is raising concern and very little higher interest rates, which will not investment is flowing into the country. be forthcoming if the president’s According to data compiled by the New meddling continues. ISSN 2532-6570 World Wealth research group, 12 per cent of the millionaire population (that Without these changes, it is not is, people whose personal assets top 1 clear how Erdoğan plans to ward off million dollars in net worth) emigrated the impending financial meltdown from Turkey in 2017, the largest exodus and scale back the already growing of its kind in a single country.3 discontent among his electorate. Pushing the elections forward is Financial markets have also lost unlikely to pay off. confidence in Erdoğan’s leadership, which has effectively chipped away The move was also meant to blindside at the independence of Turkey’s the opposition. Yet, Erdoğan’s efforts central bank. Markets had rallied when have backfired. For the first time since early elections were called in April, 2002, the opposition is pushing back. welcoming the possibility of a shake- up at the top. They languished again Six presidential candidates are running after Erdoğan announced that he in the election, but none are expected to would tighten his grip on monetary reach an outright majority. The top two policy after the vote, signalling that candidates will advance into a second more of the same would be in store round that will take place on 8 July. should he remain at the helm.4 Against 5 Onur Ant, “How Markets Won: Erdoğan to lose majority in parliament), in Deutsche Concedes a Hated Rate Hike to Save the Lira”, Welle Türkçe, 9 May 2018, http://p.dw.com/ in Bloomberg, 24 May 2018, https://www. p/2xOxl. bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-24/ 3 Ruchir Sharma, “The Millionaires Are Fleeing. how-markets-won-erdogan-concedes-a-hated- Maybe You Should, Too”, in The New York Times, rate-hike-to-save-lira. 2 June 2018, https://nyti.ms/2LViNd8. 6 AKP, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s 4 Laura Pitel, “Recep Tayyip Erdoğan: Turkey’s Election Manifesto for 24 June 2018, May strongman grapples with the markets”, in 2018, p. 24, http://www.akparti.org.tr/upload/ Financial Times, 25 May 2018. documents/ingilizcema.pdf. IAI COMMENTARIES 18 | 32 - JUNE 2018 IAI COMMENTARIES 2 Erdoğan’s Snap Election Gamble: Too Little, Too Late? This run-off will likely see Erdoğan Islamic headscarf and may therefore compete against either Meral Akşener be an ideal representative for these of the Good Party (İyi Parti), an off- constituencies. Turkish pollster Gezici shoot of the ultra-nationalist, far-right has projected that 70 per cent of MHP Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), voters and 10 per cent of AKP voters, or Muharrem İnce of the Republican along with 30 per cent of CHP voters, People’s Party (CHP), Turkey’s largest may migrate to the Good Party.7 opposition and a long-standing secular © 2018 IAI rival to the AKP. In contrast, Kurdish voters are likely to represent a greater challenge for Both Akşener and İnce are effectively Akşener. Her track record vis-à-vis targeting key constituencies that have the Kurds, during her brief stint as shifted away from the AKP – foremost, minister of the interior in 1996-1997, the urban conservatives and the Kurds, is not exactly pristine, as this period representing 5 per cent and 18 per cent coincided with some of the worst state- of the electorate respectively. Given sponsored human rights violations these numbers, the actions (or even against Kurdish communities in ISSN 2532-6570 inactions) of these constituencies Turkey’s recent history.8 could make or break Erdoğan’s electoral chances, especially if they rally behind To her credit, however, she has an opposition candidate in the event of adopted a rather conciliatory tone a run-off. for nationalist standards. During the campaign, she called for the release Akşener is not a new figure in Turkey’s of Selahattin Demirtaş, the jailed political scene, but her Good Party is. leader of the Kurdish-dominated Founded in October 2017, the party Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP). Yet, is a direct political competitor to the she also remained silent on more AKP and the MHP. Like Erdoğan and pressing issues, such as how to resolve MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli, Akşener the country’s decades-old Kurdish is rooted in Turkey’s conservative question, possibly fearing a backlash milieu, placing her in the centre-right from her nationalist base. Nevertheless, of Turkey’s political spectrum. This her defence of socially conservative is precisely what makes her more values suggests she may still collect appealing. Indeed, for a demographic Kurdish votes in a possible run-off with that has lost its penchant for Erdoğan Erdoğan come 8 July. or Bahçeli but still share their political and ideological persuasions, she stands İnce has displayed an almost complete out as a refreshing newcomer. disregard for the CHP’s political playbook – which may in fact work to Yet, she also strikes a chord with traditional conservative voters that 7 “Gezici: AK Parti ve MHP meclisteki had shifted over to the CHP because çoğunluğunu yitirecek”, cit. there was simply nobody to vote for in 8 Kareem Shaheen and Gokce Saracoglu, Turkey’s centre-right. Akşener might “Turkey’s iron lady: ‘It’s time for the men in power to feel fear’”, in The Guardian, 3 May 2018, be pious, yet she does not to wear the https://gu.com/p/8gjtq. IAI COMMENTARIES 18 | 32 - JUNE 2018 IAI COMMENTARIES 3 Erdoğan’s Snap Election Gamble: Too Little, Too Late? his benefit. Despite his party’s legacy As per Turkey’s new electoral law, the 10 of hard-line secularism, he has been per cent threshold to enter parliament able to connect with religious voters. is discarded for parties on a coalition Born into a conservative family, İnce ticket,12 allowing the opposition to supports the right of female civil appoint more parliamentarians. servants to wear the Islamic headscarf, Furthermore, it will represent a blend prays regularly and has even delivered of centre-right, centre-left, Islamist and public statements following Friday nationalist factions, and will therefore © 2018 IAI prayers, invoking such rhetoric as “we be able to collect votes from a much Sunnis”.9 larger percentage of the population. In fact, polls predict the coalition could İnce has also engaged in what may dominate parliament by 40-50 seats. prove to be a successful outreach to Turkey’s Kurds, unprecedented in CHP If this is indeed the case, the opposition praxis. He has criticized the lifting of could become a real stumbling block for Kurdish lawmakers’ immunity from the AKP even if Erdoğan is re-elected as prosecution; referred to the Kurds as the country’s president.
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