THE MARCH 31 LOCAL ELECTIONS IN TURKEY NEBI MIŞ • HAZAL DURAN ANALYSIS MARCH 2019 NO.50 THE MARCH 31 LOCAL ELECTIONS IN TURKEY NEBI MIŞ • HAZAL DURAN COPYRIGHT © 2019 by SETA All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reprinted or reproduced or utilized in any form or by any electronic, mechanical or other means, without permission in writing from the publishers. SETA Yayınları ISBN: 978-605-7544-37-7 Layout: Hasan Suat Olgun Printed in Turkey, İstanbul by Turkuvaz Haberleşme ve Yayıncılık A.Ş., 2019 SETA | SİYASET, EKONOMİ VE TOPLUM ARAŞTIRMALARI VAKFI Nenehatun Cd. No: 66 GOP Çankaya 06700 Ankara TÜRKİYE Tel: +90 312 551 21 00 | Faks: +90 312 551 21 90 www.setav.org | [email protected] | @setavakfi SETA | İstanbul Defterdar Mh. Savaklar Cd. Ayvansaray Kavşağı No: 41-43 Eyüpsultan İstanbul TÜRKİYE Tel: +90 212 395 11 00 | Faks: +90 212 395 11 11 SETA | Washington D.C. 1025 Connecticut Avenue, N.W., Suite 1106 Washington D.C., 20036 USA Tel: 202-223-9885 | Faks: 202-223-6099 www.setadc.org | [email protected] | @setadc SETA | Kahire 21 Fahmi Street Bab al Luq Abdeen Flat No: 19 Cairo EGYPT Tel: 00202 279 56866 | 00202 279 56985 | @setakahire SETA | Berlin Französische Straße 12, 10117 Berlin GERMANY Tel: +49 30 20188466 THE MARCH 31 LOCAL ELECTIONS IN TURKEY CONTENTS ABSTRACT 7 INTRODUCTION 8 LEADING DYNAMICS OF THE MARCH 2019 LOCAL ELECTIONS 9 WHAT THE MARCH 2019 ELECTION MEANS TO POLITICAL PARTIES 12 VISIONS FOR LOCAL GOVERNMENT: FROM PAST TO PRESENT 15 CONCLUSION 25 setav.org 5 ANALYSIS ABOUT THE AUTHORS Nebi Miş Nebi Miş is the Director of Political Studies at the SETA Foundation. He is also faculty member in the department of Political Sciences and Public Administration, and the Middle East Institute of Sakarya University. Dr. Miş received his BA in International Relations from Sakarya University in 2003, and his MA in 2005. He received his Ph.D. from Sakarya University upon completion of his doctoral thesis titled “Securitization Politics of Turkey: 1923-2003” in 2012. He also worked as a researcher for Katholieke Universiteit Leuven in Belgium for a year during his Ph.D. studies. His research areas include political systems and institutions, democratization, Kurdish issue, Turkish civil-military relations, security politics in Turkey, Islamism and democratization in the Middle East. His articles have been published in various national and international academic journals. Dr. Mis is also the co- editor and co-writer of several books such as “Democracy Watch: Social Perception of 15 July Coup Attempt”, “Turkey’s Presidential System: Model and Practices”, “The AK Party’s Fifteen Years in Politics”. Hazal Duran Hazal Duran graduated from TOBB University of Economics and Technology Departments of International Relations and Turkish Language and Literature (double major) in 2012. She completed her MA in Modern Turkish Studies (MTS) at İstanbul Şehir University. Duran con- tinues her doctoral studiesat Bilkent University, Department of Political Science. She works as a Researcher at SETA Ankara Directorate of Political Studies. 6 setav.org THE MARCH 31 LOCAL ELECTIONS IN TURKEY ABSTRACT The analysis explains the March 2019 local election’s significance to Turkish politics and concentrates on the ways in which the visions of various politi cal parties for local government have changed over the years. On March 31, 2019, Turkey will hold local elections in 30 metropolitan districts, 51 provinces, 922 counties, 32,105 neighborhoods, and 18,306 villages. This lo- cal election will be the fifteenth electoral contest since the Justice and Develop- ment Party (AK Party) came to power 17 years ago. Yet there will be a range of new dynamics at play, as Turkey’s political arena undergoes major changes. The April 2017 constitutional referendum facilitated the country’s transition from the parliamentary system of government to a type of presidentialism known as the “Presidency System of Government.” The country’s political arena has been reshaped under the new system. On June 24, 2018, Turkey held a national election for the first time under presidentialism. Parliamentary and presidential elections took place on the same day and various political parties contested races by forming electoral alliances among themselves. Those alliances made a signifi- cant impact on the election results. A large number of political parties will participate in the March 2019 local election as part of broader electoral alliances. As a matter of fact, those electoral alliances have deepened since last year’s national election, with each alliance endorsing a joint mayoral candidate in many provinces. In some cases, they even jointly nominated a group of candidates for the city council. As such, Turkey will discover for the first time how electoral alliances will influence voter behav- ior in local races. This analysis explains the March 2019 local election’s significance to Turkish politics and concentrates on the ways in which the visions of various politi- cal parties for local government have changed over the years. Accordingly, the analysis primarily discusses the upcoming election’s key dynamics. It proceeds to analyze the March 2019 election’s significance for each major political party’s internal agenda and future projections. Moreover, this analysis offers a detailed account of how each political party’s vision for local government has changed over the years and how their respective visions have been tailored for the 2019 local election campaign. Finally, it identifies a number of issues that will pos- sibly set the post-election political agenda in Turkey. setav.org 7 ANALYSIS (CHP), the Good Party, and the Felicity Party (SP) together on the basis of opposition to the AK Party and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. In the end, President Erdoğan and the AK Party claimed their fourteenth con- secutive victory, including parliamentary and presidential elections, and constitutional refer- endums. Having received 52.59 percent of the popular vote, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan became Turkey’s first president under the new system of government. The People’s Alliance, which the AK Party and the MHP had formed joint- ly, attained parliamentary majority with 53.66 percent. The AK Party claimed 295 parliamen- INTRODUCTION tary seats with 42.56 percent of the vote and The June 2018 presidential and parliamenta- the People’s Alliance, together with the MHP’s ry elections, which took place shortly before 49 parliamentarians, managed to control a to- the 2019 local election, represented a turn- tal of 344 seats.1 ing point in Turkey’s political history for two Turkey’s formal transition to the presiden- reasons. First, those elections were a critical tial system after the June 2018 elections raised threshold for the transformation of the coun- a number of questions about the potential try’s political system since the transition to impact of the new rules and the introduction presidentialism had already been accepted by of electoral alliances in the first local election the April 16, 2017 constitutional referendum. under the new system. In this regard, each po- Moreover, various political parties could form litical party assessed how joining an electoral electoral alliances for the first time under the alliance might help or hurt them. In the end, new rules, which set apart the June 2018 elec- they decided to join forces in what they con- tions from previous electoral contests. sidered key districts. Whereas the AK Party Ahead of the June 2018 elections, Tur- and the MHP jointly endorsed candidates in key’s leading political parties formed two ma- 51 provinces and many counties, the CHP jor alliances. The AK Party and the National- and the Good Party adopted the same strategy ist Movement Party (MHP) formally joined in 50 provinces. The Peoples’ Democratic Par- forces, with the implicit support of the Grand ty (HDP), in turn, supported the CHP-Good Union Party (BBP), to contest the election as Party alliance by not contesting the election in part of the People’s Alliance - whose stated pur- 11 provinces. pose was to protect Turkey’s interests at home 1. For analyses of the June 2018 election results, see Ali Çarkoğlu and abroad with an emphasis on native and and Kerem Yıldırım, “Change and Continuity in Turkey’s June 2018 Elections”, Insight Turkey, Vol: 20, No: 4 (2018); Nebi Miş, “Yeni national values. Its opponent, the Nation Al- Siyasal Sistemin İlk Seçimleri ve Sonuçlarının Karşılaştırmalı Analizi” liance, brought the Republican People’s Party [A Comparative Analysis of the First Election under the New Political System and Its Outcome], Muhafazakar Düşünce, No: 54, (2018). 8 setav.org THE MARCH 31 LOCAL ELECTIONS IN TURKEY TABLE 1. ELECTORAL ALLIANCES AMONG POLITICAL PARTIES BY PROVINCE The People’s Alliance The Nation Alliance HDP Provinces Where the HDP Provinces Where the MHP Will Support the Provinces Where the Good Party Will Will not Contest in Favor of AK Party Support the CHP the Nation Alliance Ağrı, Ankara, Antalya, Ardahan, Artvin, Aydın, Adana, Ankara, Antalya Artvin, Balıkesir, Bilecik, Bitlis, Bolu, Burdur, Bursa, Aydın, Bartın Bilecik, Bolu, Burdur Çanakkale, Denizli, Diyarbakır, Eskişehir, Bursa, Çanakkale, Edirne, Erzincan, Istanbul, Ankara, Izmir, Erzurum, Gaziantep, Giresun, Hakkari, Hatay, Eskişehir, Giresun, Hatay, Istanbul, Adana, Mersin, Hatay, Aydın, Istanbul, Izmir, Kahramanmaraş, Kocaeli, Izmir, Kahramanmaraş, Kastamonu, Antalya, Bursa, Gaziantep, Konya, Malatya, Mardin, Muğla, Muş, Ordu, Kırklareli, Kırşehir, Malatya, Muğla,