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Croatia Political Briefing: Enhancing the Capabilities of Croatian Armed Forces Valentino Petrović

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Croatia Political Briefing: Enhancing the Capabilities of Croatian Armed Forces Valentino Petrović ISSN: 2560-1601 Vol. 42, No. 1 (HR) July 2021 Croatia political briefing: Enhancing the Capabilities of Croatian Armed Forces Valentino Petrović 1052 Budapest Petőfi Sándor utca 11. +36 1 5858 690 Kiadó: Kína-KKE Intézet Nonprofit Kft. [email protected] Szerkesztésért felelős személy: CHen Xin Kiadásért felelős személy: Huang Ping china-cee.eu 2017/01 Enhancing the Capabilities of Croatian Armed Forces Summary This paper will present the latest events surrounding the Croatian purchase of the new fighter jets. After long speculation on official tenderers and financial details of their offers, the Government decided to choose the French one, which includes 12 Rafale F-3R fighter jets. At one point, almost two years ago, the country was close to choosing Israeli F-16 jets, but the negotiations fell apart. Now, it appears that the decision was between the two allies from NATO, the United States and France, with Croatia eventually choosing the latter. Introduction After almost a two-year-long speculation on what fighter jets Croatia will decide to buy or, more importantly, whose fighter jets, the decision has finally been made and became publicly known in late May. The Croatian Government led-by Prime Minister Andrej Plenković decided to opt for French Rafale F-3R fighter jets, therefore, closing any theories that the first choice was the Lockheed Martin F-16 Block 70 jets from the United States. After the decision was disclosed, the Government officials expressed their satisfaction with the way the negotiations were carried out. President Zoran Milanović expressed his content as well, even though there were indications that he favored the United States offer. The Negotiations on the New Fighter Jets During the whole process of negotiations, there were four tenderers in competition: besides the French Rafale and the United States F-16 fighter jets, Sweden submitted its offer for the Saab Gripen C/D model, while Israel offered twelve second hand F-16 Block 30 jets. There were lots of rumors about what decision would be the best for Croatia. Some even argued that at this point, amid the economic and social uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak, it would not be wise to purchase military planes nor equipment and that all the efforts need to be focused on the welfare of Croatian people, that is, in making the business environment safe to prevent massive shutdowns and the possibility of rising unemployment levels. We could further debate on this matter especially taking into account the global economic effect of the 1 coronavirus pandemic, but more importantly the economic situation in Croatia. Furthermore, one must not disregard the consequences of two major earthquakes that struck Croatia in 2020, “from the financially more devastating one in Zagreb back in March 2020 to the emotionally destroying one in December in Banovina, which produced a sea of homeless people, together amounts to 11 to 12 billion euros, ten times more than the cost of a combat squadron”1. On the other hand, the negotiations on the purchase of new fighter jets started before the emergence of COVID-19, and this particular decision was seen as a main priority of the country, at least from the military and security perspective. It is well known that the MIG-21 fighter jets that the country bought from Ukraine back in 2013 are obsolete, with their operational life ending in 2024, while some of them are even regarded as defective and, thus, had to be stopped from using2. Be that as it may, it appears that the Croatian Government has firmly decided to go into this endeavor, regardless of economic difficulties surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic and post-earthquake reconstruction, both of which have already taken their toll. Moreover, ever since he was elected a country’s president, Zoran Milanović said he would not undermine the Government’s efforts in modernizing armed forces, especially the Air Force’s aging fleet, despite his often “misunderstandings” and “exchange of words” with Prime Minister Plenković. Thus, both heads of the executive branch in Croatia have given their blessings for the country to launch the negotiation process with the aforementioned tenderers. Some may find this curious, taking into account the differences between Plenković and Milanović, and the fact that they often take opposite positions when it comes to certain questions, especially those related to internal policy. However, in this particular matter, their opinions went hand in hand, with Milanović keeping a neutral position, even though he mentioned several months ago that the best solution would be to choose the offer of the United States. Nevertheless, knowing their diplomatic background and political orientation toward Euro-Atlantic partners and values, it was reasonable to assume that the decision would include either French or American fighter jets. The Reactions on the Purchase Not everyone in Croatia was satisfied with the decision the Government made. The right- wing Homeland Movement (Domovinski pokret, DP) “issued a release stating that the US bid 1 Simmonds, Lauren. 2021. Croatian Fighter Jet Saga Continues, Decision Coming Soon? Total Croatia News https://www.total-croatia-news.com/politics/50407-croatian-fighter-jet. 2 Oestergaard, J. Kasper. 2021. Rafale Fighter Jet Acquisition: A Major Leap Forward for the Croatian Air Force. Defense & Security Monitor https://dsm.forecastinternational.com/wordpress/2021/06/07/rafale-fighter-jet- acquisition-a-major-leap-forward-for-the-croatian-air-force/. 2 should have been accepted, saying that the purchase of such aircraft primarily confirms the strategic military and political alliance between two countries. Yet, according to DP, France was not an ally during the Homeland War and the politicians currently in power are not allies of Croatia either”3. These statements were expected, if nothing, then due to the political differences and confrontations between the ruling Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) and the Homeland Movement. As it is known, the two parties are in political quarrel ever since Miroslav Škoro, now the leader of the Homeland Movement, announced his candidacy for the 2019 presidential elections. As both HDZ and Škoro take the large majority of their electorate from the right side of the political spectrum, HDZ was quite offended when Škoro told his supporters not to vote for then-President Kolinda Grabar Kitarović, who was in the runoff of the presidential race against Milanović, after he lost in the first round. In the end, Milanović won, which provoked HDZ to take every opportunity to put the blame for his election on Škoro. According to Prime Minister Plenković “with the Rafale purchase, Croatia is gaining a powerful strategic deterrent for the next 30 to 40 years, which significantly strengthens the nation’s airspace protection and position within NATO and multiplies the overall combat capability of the Croatian Armed Forces. ‘With this move, Croatia will for the first time reach the level of spending 2 percent of GDP for strengthening its defense capabilities…’”4. Furthermore, the Prime Minister underlined that the country got the best fighter jets for the lowest possible price, that is, for the least money, as the overall amount estimate around 999 million euros. Apart from 12 F-3R Rafale fighter jets, among which the oldest one is produced ten years ago, the purchase includes simulators, equipment, and training for Croatian pilots. The financial details were not disclosed nor they ever will be, according to Prime Minister Plenković, but the media suggestions are estimating that the United States offer for F-16 Block 70 was around 1.8 billion dollars, while the Swedish offer for Gripen C/D model was somewhat more than 1 billion euros5. There were some indications among experts in military equipment that Swedish jets would be the best, as the Gripen C/D model has already been successfully delivered to Hungary and Czech Republic. Moreover, Göran Martensson, Director General of FMV (Defence Materiel Administration), underlined the cost-effectiveness of the Swedish offer, while Jonas Hjelm, Saab’s Vice President, said: “To this day, when 50 Swedish companies employ more 3 Trkanjec, Željko. 2021. Croatia to buy Rafale fighter jets from France. Euractiv.com https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/short_news/croatia-to-buy-rafale-fighter-jets-from-france/. 4 Oestergaard, J. Kasper. 2021. Rafale Fighter Jet Acquisition: A Major Leap Forward for the Croatian Air Force. Defense & Security Monitor https://dsm.forecastinternational.com/wordpress/2021/06/07/rafale-fighter-jet- acquisition-a-major-leap-forward-for-the-croatian-air-force/. 5 Žabec, Krešimir. 2021. Nepoznati detalji francuske ponude i ponuda konkurenata: Koliko će ustvari koštati Rafalei? Jutarnji.hr https://www.jutarnji.hr/vijesti/hrvatska/nepoznati-detalji-francuske-ponude-i-ponuda- konkurenata-koliko-ce-ustvari-kostati-rafalei-15076995. 3 than 10.000 people in Croatia, I don’t remember ever having heard about any failed, non- transparent or overvalued projects that came to Croatia from Sweden. For more than 20 years now, as long as Saab has been present in Croatia, our solutions have been successfully implemented and used in the military and civilian sectors without any problems”6. Conclusion All in all, the main concern of military analysts was whether Croatian pilots would even be in a position to use all the benefits of having such fighter jets. Additionally, some consider that Croatian infrastructure is obsolete and cannot sustain the utilization and maintenance requirements. Ivan Selak, a prominent and retired military pilot, commented that Rafale jets are currently the best, however, he argued that Croatia does not have enough pilots, and posed a question whether these pilots could use all the advantages that the new jets offer. The bottom line, the final decision, as we already said, was expected, and the choice was only between the two NATO allies.
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