The 'Silent Hunt': Turkey Eyes Strategic Roles for Its New Attack Submarines

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The 'Silent Hunt': Turkey Eyes Strategic Roles for Its New Attack Submarines Foreign Policy & Security 2020/05/EN September 2020 THE ‘SILENT HUNT’: TURKEY EYES STRATEGIC ROLES FOR ITS NEW ATTACK SUBMARINES Dr. Can Kasapoğlu | Director, Security and Defense Research Program, EDAM Foreign Policy & Security 2020/05/EN THE ‘SILENT HUNT’: TURKEY EYES STRATEGIC ROLES FOR ITS NEW ATTACK SUBMARINES Dr. Can Kasapoglu | Director, Security and Defense Research Program, EDAM Executive Summary Between 2022 and 2027, Turkey is set to receive six on the Gezgin (the Voyager) project, mimicking those of Reis-class submarines (based on Germany’s advanced the US and Russia with the Tomahawk and Kalibr missiles Type-214-class) with air-independent propulsion (AIP) respectively. If successful, the integration of submarine- systems that combine long endurance and silent navigation. launched cruise missiles and submarines with AIP systems The new platforms will boost the nation’s military capacity, would be tantamount to a breakthrough for the Turkish most notably as to land-attack capabilities in littoral settings military’s strategic weapons arsenal. along with other signature advantages in submarine warfare. The Reis-class will not only benefit the Turkish Navy In the long-run, however, Turkey’s emerging undersea but also Turkey’s defense technological and industrial base. fleet can be assigned to a more strategic role. Turkish Leading companies are playing critical roles in the project, defense planners aim to build a long-range & high-precision generating cumulative know-how which can be transferred conventional deep strike capability through sea-launched to the Milli Denizaltı (the national submarine) plans in the cruise missiles (with submarine-launched variants) based coming years. 2 Foreign Policy & Security 2020/05/EN Geopolitics of Submarine Warfare Submarines are geopolitical chess-pieces in a broad-array of the deterrence factor that submarines bring to the seas. struggles ranging from great power competition to regional An adversary would theoretically know the range and military balance calculus of flashpoints situated in different endurance of the submarine, yet, within these parameters, corners of the world. Throughout military history, these boats the platform can be anywhere at any time3. The longer a have proven to be game-changers at strategic, operational, boat can navigate without surfacing – and the more silent it and tactical levels. World War 2 offers invaluable lessons in can proceed –, the more it would pose deterrence through this respect. The US-led allied submarine campaign in the ambiguity. Moreover, with adequate numbers, a fleet of Pacific, for example, devastated Imperial Japan’s merchant submarines can sustain a long, even continuous presence fleet, constituting one of the leading causes behind the in an area of strategic interest with one platform relieving collapse of the Japanese war-economy. Likewise, the another systematically. German U-boat activity during both of the world wars posed great challenges1. Military-futuristic studies suggest more ambitious roles along with challenges to submarines. Some experts anticipate Submarines are valuable assets due to their ability to that manned submarines will need to shift from their front- combine advanced features in concepts of operations line tactical roles – resembling combat aircraft – to more (CONOPS) and weaponry. Underwater boats can run silent, coordination hub roles like aircraft carriers. In the meantime, dive deep, and hide from the adversary’s eyes. Besides, anti-submarine warfare networks will have an increasing they are platforms that carry game-changer weapons, such reliance on more complex sources other than radiated noise, as nuclear arms and conventional high-precision missiles, thus, making acoustic silencing not adequate to maintain an as well as complex sensors and electronics. Last but not undersea boat’s stealth. In return, manned submarines “will least, following the nuclear technologies introduced to the have incentives to reduce their exposure to risks in hostile battle-space, submarines play critical roles in great power littorals while maximizing their use of a growing array of rivalry in the world’s oceans2. deployable acoustic and non-acoustic decoys and jammers to prevent detection”4. Also, large unmanned underwater Having left its port and dived, a submarine can only be vehicles are likely to take part in tactical operations, such detected by the application of a complex search effort as intelligence gathering, land-attack, and anti-ship tasks, in in a relatively large area. The very element of uncertainty the future, especially in hostile littoral settings. introduces a significant multiplier-effect when it comes to 1 Robert Farly, “These 5 Submarines Redefine What It Means To Be “Silent But Deadly”, The National Interest, September 9, 2020, https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/ these-5-submarines-redefine-what-it-means-be-%E2%80%9Csilent-deadly%E2%80%9D-168663, Accessed on: September 22, 2020. 2 For a detailed assessment, see: James F Dunnigan, How to Make War, 2003. 3 Janis Cocking, Australia’s Requirement for Submarines, Australian Government Department of Defence Science and Technology, 2016, pp.3-4. 4 For a good military-futuristic study, see: Bryan Clark, The Emerging Era in Undersea Warfare, CSBA, 2015, p.17. 3 Foreign Policy & Security 2020/05/EN AIP System Equipped Submarines When it comes to Turkey’s Reis-class case, analytical focus abbreviation) come with several advantages. First, when needs to take into consideration two specific aspects, air- fed with good military intelligence as to the adversary’s independent propulsion systems and submarine-launched buildup, they are robust ambush-layers thanks to their cruise missiles with conventional roles. quietness and endurance. Besides, the underlying design philosophy behind these advanced boats makes them The AIP systems allow conventional submarines to remain ideal assets for short and medium-range surveillance underwater longer by enabling them to recharge their tasks too7. Available writings suggest that in naval warfare batteries without surfacing for air. Present technologies settings favoring maneuverable platforms, such as littoral highlight three main types of AIP systems – Stirling Cycle, waters, SSPs can have a clear upper-hand8. Closed Cycle Steam Turbines [MESMA in the French designation], and Fuel Cell – of which the latter, necessitating AIP submarines can be militarily effective tools, especially in fewer moving parts and using hydrogen and oxygen to short and medium-range missions by extending the “tactical generate power, looms large as ‘the state-of-the-art’ way- ‘trade-space” for diesel-electric submarines. Their ability to forward for the submarines of the class5. The Turkish Navy’s sustain slow, long, silent patrol is noteworthy in this respect. forthcoming Reis-class, based on the German Type 214, will Finally, future improvements in the AIP technologies can lead use the fuel cell technology6. to a double, or even triple boost in a typical fuel cell module’s power output, in which case, would bring about better trade- AIP system-equipped submarines (SSP in military offs between underwater speed and endurance9. Submarine’s Land-Attack Roles in Context Apart from the AIP submarines, one has to develop a forces’ chemical warfare activities on civilians, as well as the thorough understanding of these platforms’ conventional Russian Navy’s Kalibr salvos into the Syrian battleground, high-precision land-attack roles to better grasp what the remain telling in this respect. Likewise, the conversion of Reis class would mean to Turkey. some of the US Navy’s Ohio-class nuclear-tipped ballistic missile submarines into nuclear-powered conventional Today, the world’s advanced submarine fleets adopt critical attack platforms – now equipped with Tomahawk Block land-attack roles which manifest a new geopolitical reality in IV missiles – is a good example. Following the START II their military use. Especially in littoral settings with no assured Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, limiting the number of access ashore, navies’ precision land-attack capability from strategic missile submarines to 14 from 2002, instead of the sea offers interesting options to political decision-makers decommissioning four excess boats, the US Navy has and military planners10. The US Navy’s punitive strikes with converted them for conventional long-range precision strike Tomahawk missiles on the Syrian regime following Assad’s roles along with SEAL special operation troops delivery11. 5 Robert Farley, “The Navy Is Overlooking Air-Independent Propulsion Submarines At Its Own Peril”, The National Interest, January 2020, https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/navy-overlooking-air-independent-propulsion-submarines-its-own-peril-117831, Accessed on: September 8, 2020. 6 The Turkish Navy, https://www.dzkk.tsk.tr/icerik.php?dil=1&icerik_id=75, Accessed on: September 8, 2020. 7 Robert Farley, “The Navy Is Overlooking Air-Independent Propulsion Submarines At Its Own Peril”, The National Interest, January 2020, https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/navy-overlooking-air-independent-propulsion-submarines-its-own-peril-117831, Accessed on: September 8, 2020. 8 Ibid. 9 Edward, C. Whitman. “Air Independent Propulsion”, Undersea Warfare Magazine, https://www.public.navy.mil/subfor/underseawarfaremagazine/Issues/Archives/issue_13/propulsion.htm, Accessed on. September 23, 2020. 10 For detailed information, see: Owen R. Cote, “Innovation in the Submarine Force: Ensuring
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