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Explaining the Varying Electoral Appeal of the Vlaams Blok in the Districts of Antwerp

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Explaining the Varying Electoral Appeal of the Vlaams Blok in the Districts of Antwerp Explaining the varying electoral appeal of the Vlaams Blok in the Districts of Antwerp Peter Thijssen and Sarah L. de Lange SUMMARY. The Vlaams Blok (now Vlaams Belang) has been among the more successful of Europe’s far-right parties. But there is still a good deal of statisti- cal analysis which might be done to help identify the factors in their success. This study looks at the best available data from electoral returns in the nine dis- tricts of Antwerp, which has been the locus of the Vlaams Blok’s support. A sta- tistical comparison is made between various social and economic factors, and the level of support for Vlaams Blok in an attempt to identify significant corre- lations. INTRODUCTION Since their resurgence in the 1980s, far-right parties in Western Europe have received a great deal of attention from the scholarly community. Many theories have been formulated which might account for the elec- toral successes of these parties. For instance, we now have a fairly detailed sociological profile of the average extreme-right voter. Nonetheless, it remains a challenge to the discipline to explain inter- and intra-national variations in the support for far-right parties. This statistical study aims to fill in a part of the second lacuna, and to outline the varieties of far-right support at the local level. Through an analysis of both the demand for, and the supply of, far-right parties in (sub-)local elections, we believe we can gain a better understanding of the shadings of the support for far-right parties in general. The object of our study will be the Vlaams Blok, a party of the extreme right which has fared particularly well in Flanders since the early 1990s. Its main strong- hold is the city of Antwerp, where a third of the population has voted for ETHICAL PERSPECTIVES: JOURNAL OF THE EUROPEAN ETHICS NETWORK 12, no. 2 (2005): 231-258. © 2005 by European Centre for Ethics, K.U.Leuven. All rights reserved. ETHICAL PERSPECTIVES – JUNE 2005 the party (33.0%). However, support for the Vlaams Blok is unevenly distributed across the nine districts of Antwerp. It gets its highest level of support in Deurne (37.9% share of the vote), while Berchem is the party’s weakest district (25.3%). To explain these variations, we will first look into the demand for a party like the Vlaams Blok at the meso level. Does the Vlaams Blok have more fertile soil in some districts than in others? Secondly, we will analyze what the Vlaams Blok has to offer to the voters in the districts of Antwerp. Although the party contests (sub-)local elections with a single political pro- gramme, it runs different lists in the districts. Thus, we will pay special atten- tion to the candidates who represent the Vlaams Blok at the district level. THE ELECTORAL SUCCESS OF THE VLAAMS BLOK IN ANTWERP Antwerp has long been the stronghold of the Vlaams Blok. In 1982, the party participated for the first time in the Flemish local elections. In Antwerp, the Vlaams Blok managed to secure 2 of the 55 seats in the city council. The big breakthrough came in 1988, when the party increased its share of the vote to 17.7%, winning 10 seats in the city council thereby. In 1994, the Vlaams Blok progressed even further, winning 28.0% of the votes and thus sending 18 members to the city council. The local elections in 2000 brought a novelty to Antwerp. Not only were there direct elections for the city council, but for the first time citizens could also vote for the newly introduced district councils. In the elections for the city council the Vlaams Blok secured 33% of the vote, and consolidated its leading position. The elections results of the Vlaams Blok in the districts of Antwerp are presented in Table 1. Table 1. – Election results of the Vlaams Blok in the nine Antwerp districts (in %) District Election results 2000 Antwerp 28.1 Berchem 25.3 —232— THIJSSEN/DE LANGE – EXPLAINING THE VARYING ELECTORAL APPEAL OF THE VLAAMS BLOK IN THE DISTRICTS OF ANTWERP Bezali 29.0 Borgerhout 35.3 Deurne 37.9 Ekeren 29.4 Hoboken 37.3 Merksem 34.6 Wilrijk 26.2 Table 1 shows that the election results of the Vlaams Blok vary consider- ably over the nine districts of Antwerp. As mentioned above, in Berchem the party nets its lowest percentage of votes (25.3% of the popular vote), and in Deurne its highest (37.9%), which makes the range of the Vlaams Blok score 12.6%. The average Vlaams Blok score over the nine districts is 31.5%, the standard deviation is 4.84%. There are five districts in which the Vlaams Blok performs below the average, namely Antwerp, Berchem, Bezali (Berendrecht-Zandvliet-Lillo), Ekeren, and Wilrijk. In four districts the party achieves a score above the average, namely Borgerhout, Deurne, Hoboken, and Merksem. In Figure 1, the geographical distribution of the Vlaams Blok vote shares in the various districts is presented. The districts in which the party scores below average are light grey, the districts in which it scores above average are dark grey. One can see that Antwerp is not build up of con- centric circles like most large cities. It is therefore difficult to state that the success of the Vlaams Blok is concentrated in the outskirts of Antwerp. Most districts in which the Vlaams Blok results are above average are clustered on the east side of the city. Here we find the neighboring dis- tricts of Borgerhout, Deurne and Merksem. The fourth district in which the Vlaams Blok performs above average, Hoboken, is isolated on the south-west side of Antwerp. In the following sections, we will try to explain why the Vlaams Blok achieves higher results in certain districts than in others. In order to for- mulate a satisfactory explanation, we will make a twofold analysis of both the demand for, and support of, the Vlaams Blok in the nine districts of Antwerp. First, we will analyze the relationship between the socio-eco- —233— ETHICAL PERSPECTIVES – JUNE 2005 Figure 1. – Geography of the Vlaams Blok in Antwerp nomic characteristics of the districts and the success of the Vlaams Blok. It is possible that these contextual factors will make some districts better breeding ground for right-wing extremism than others. Second, we will assess the appeal of the Vlaams Blok in the various districts. That is, we will analyze whether the party has presented itself with better lists and candidates in some districts than in others. THE DEMAND SIDE OF SUPPORT FOR THE VLAAMS BLOK AT THE (SUB-)LOCAL LEVEL There are numerous (and sometimes conflicting) theories aiming to explain the current success of far-right parties. In large part, the focus of theories is —234— THIJSSEN/DE LANGE – EXPLAINING THE VARYING ELECTORAL APPEAL OF THE VLAAMS BLOK IN THE DISTRICTS OF ANTWERP on the demand for far-right parties, that is, on the questions of who is attracted to the far right, and why. Demand-side theories offer explanations for the success of far-right parties at the micro, meso, and macro levels (e.g. Coffé, 2004; Eatwell, 2003; Lubbers, Scheepers & Billiet, 2000; Swyngedouw, 1998). For the focus of our research, the districts of Antwerp, only meso-level or contextual variables are available. Since demand-side meso-level theories have hitherto been underdeveloped, we will also translate some micro-level explanations to the meso level. A first group of demand-side theories attempts to explain why under- privileged social groups (blue-collar workers, low-ranking white-collar workers, the less-educated, those with lower incomes, and the unem- ployed) are over-represented in the electorates of the extreme right.1 Various lines of reasoning are used to account for this over-representation. A first argument holds that the underprivileged see ethnic minorities as their economic competitors, because ethnic minorities work in the same sectors as manual and lower white collar workers, share a low level of edu- cation with underprivileged autochthones, and are more commonly unemployed than the average citizen. The underprivileged therefore per- ceive ethnic minorities as a threat and become increasingly xenophobic, which makes them more likely to vote for the far right. A second line of reasoning holds that the underprivileged feel more threatened by societal developments, such as globalization and post-industrialization, than do other social groups. These developments intensify the subjective depriva- tions of the underprivileged, which stimulates a heightening political dis- satisfaction, and re-enforces authoritarian attitudes. Both political dissat- isfaction and an authoritarian outlook increase the likelihood of voting for the extreme right. The arguments presented above attempt to account for the over-rep- resentation of underprivileged voters in the electorate of the far right at the individual level. When one transposes these individual-level theories to the meso level, the hypothesis becomes: —235— ETHICAL PERSPECTIVES – JUNE 2005 Hypothesis 1: The far right will have more success in areas (in this case, districts) with high percentages of underprivileged inhabitants than in areas with low percentages of underprivileged inhabitants. Meso level theories identify two factors that may explain variations in the success of far-right parties. The first is the presence of ethnic minorities; the second is the level of unemployment. When an area has a large num- ber of ethnic minorities, or has seen an increase in this number, ethnic minorities are more likely to be perceived as a threat and xenophobia will be on the rise. This will benefit the extreme right. The same goes for unemployment: when an area has a large number of unemployed, or has seen an increase in this number, subjective deprivation is more likely to be experienced.
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