Assessing the Vulnerability of Marine Life to Climate Change in the Pacific Region

Assessing the vulnerability of marine life to climate change in the Pacific Region Jonatha Giddens1, Donald Kobayashi1, Mark Nelson2 1.NOAA Fisheries Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center 2.NOAA Fisheries Office of Science and Technology Outline • Project overview • VA general methodology • Progress • Pacific Islands preliminary results • Next steps Which species are most at risk? Cartoon drawn by Bas Kohler at ECCWO 2018 Scale of assessment methods adapted from Holsman et al. 2017 Where are the assessments being done? Morrison et al. 2015; Hare et al. 2016 Pacific Islands Vulnerability Assessment 6 Methodology framework Stock Vulnerability Exposure Sensitivity • Temperature (air, bottom, SS) Habitat specificity • Salinity (surface, bottom) • • Complexity in reproduction • Ocean acidification (pH) • Prey specificity • Early life history survival & • Mixed layer depth • Sensitivity to OA • Precipitation • Sensitivity to temperature settlement requirements • Currents (NS, EW) • Population growth rate • Windstress (Mag, NS, EW) • Stock size/status • Surface oxygen • Other stressors • Dispersal of early life stages • Sea level rise • Adult mobility • Chlorophyll, productivity • Spawning cycle Taxonomic scope 83 species 33 families 6 functional groups Methodology overview: sensitivity • T rait-based • E xisting knowledge + expert opinion • Group workshop to discuss results Methodology overview: exposure Surface oxygen – hammerhead shark • Measure of how much a species is likely to experience a change in climate • Spatial overlap - species’ current distribution and the expected climate change • Mean change is related to current variability • Changes in variability are measured with an F-test (future variability/current variability) Modeled exposure factors from www.esrl.noaa.gov (ensemble, RCP 8.5). Very High Pelagics High Sensitivity Slender armorhead Moderate Striped marlin Two spot snapper Bigeye tuna Mahimahi Low Skipjack tuna Wahoo Yellowfin tuna Low Moderate High Very High Exposure Sharks Very High Oceanic whitetip shark High Scalloped hammerhead Sensitivity Silky shark Pelagic thresher Moderate shark White-tip reef shark Gray reef shark Low Low Moderate High Very High Exposure Very High Deep slope High Deep-water red snapper Moderate Sensitivity Hawaiian grouper Slender armorhead Deepwater longtail red snapper Golden eye jobfish Goldflag jobfish Green jobfish Low Lavender jobfish Oblique-banded snapper Pink snapper Rusty jobfish Low Moderate High Very High Exposure Very High Coastal High Moderate Sensitivity Bigeye scad Bonefish Greater amberjack Low Mackerel scad Mullet Threadfin Low Moderate High Very High Exposure Very High Coral reef: High Blacktip grouper Jacks, Moderate Whitesaddle goatfish Bluefin trevally Emperors, Sensitivity Bluestripe snapper Dash-and-dot Goatfish, goatfish Giant trevally Snappers Humpnose big-eye Low bream Orange-striped emperor Peacock grouper Yellowfin goatfish Yellowstripe goatfish Low Moderate High Very High Exposure Very High Coral reef High parrotfish Bumphead parrotfish Moderate Sensitivity Steephead parrotfish Blue-barred parrotfish Bullethead parrotfish Marbled parrotfish Pacific longnose parrotfish Low Palenose parrotfish Redlip parrotfish Spectacled parrotfish Tanned-faced parrotfish Low Moderate High Very High Exposure Very High Coral reef surgeonfish High Achilles tang Bluespine unicornfish Moderate Sensitivity Eyestripe surgeonfish Yellow tang Bristle-toothed surgeonfish Low Convict tang Sleek unicornfish Low Moderate High Very High Exposure Very High Arceye hawkfish Other coral reef High Ornate butterflyfish Achilles tang Green damselfish Moderate Humphead wrasse Little spine foot Sensitivity Blotcheye soldierfish Brassy chub Brown chub Gold spotted Low spinefoot Humpnose big-eye bream Pinecone soldierfish Sabre squirrelfish Tripletail wrasse Low Moderate High Very High Exposure Very High Invertebrates Limpet Black teatfish Collector urchin High Maxima clam Surf redfish White teatfish Sensitivity Black sea cucumber Kona crab Moderate Palolo worm Spiny lobster Blue octopus Low Samoan crab Low Moderate High Very High Exposure Primary drivers of vulnerability are high exposure scores for SST, OA, O2 Next steps: Vulnerability narrative Hare et al. 2016 How will results be used? Science Identify: •Vulnerable species •Key environmental drivers •U nknowns in species biology and ecology Management •Provide context for fisheries management decisions • Identify future scenarios + potential actions •Support resilient oceans and human communities Awknowledgements • The thinkers: Mark Hixon, Rob, Howard Choat, Charles Birkeland, Marlowe Sabater, Ivor Williams, Michael Trianni, Phoebe Woodworth-Jefcoats, Jacob Asher, Bruce Mundy, Mark Fitchett, Johanna Wren, Joseph O’Malley, Melanie Hutchinson • Support: Headquarters; Roger Griffis; Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center: Michael Seki, Evan Howell; Ecosystem Sciences Division: Frank Parrish, Rusty Brainard; JIMAR: Jeff Hare, Melanie Abecassis; Early discussions: Lida Teneva, Malin Pinsky, Jen Howard. .

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