Assessing the vulnerability of marine life to climate change in the Pacific Region
Jonatha Giddens1, Donald Kobayashi1, Mark Nelson2
1.NOAA Fisheries Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center 2.NOAA Fisheries Office of Science and Technology
Outline • Project overview • VA general methodology • Progress • Pacific Islands preliminary results • Next steps Which species are most at risk?
Cartoon drawn by Bas Kohler at ECCWO 2018 Scale of assessment methods
adapted from Holsman et al. 2017 Where are the assessments being done?
Morrison et al. 2015; Hare et al. 2016 Pacific Islands Vulnerability Assessment
6 Methodology framework Stock Vulnerability
Exposure Sensitivity • Temperature (air, bottom, SS) Habitat specificity • Salinity (surface, bottom) • • Complexity in reproduction • Ocean acidification (pH) • Prey specificity • Early life history survival & • Mixed layer depth • Sensitivity to OA • Precipitation • Sensitivity to temperature settlement requirements • Currents (NS, EW) • Population growth rate • Windstress (Mag, NS, EW) • Stock size/status • Surface oxygen • Other stressors • Dispersal of early life stages • Sea level rise • Adult mobility • Chlorophyll, productivity • Spawning cycle
Taxonomic scope 83 species 33 families 6 functional groups Methodology overview: sensitivity • T rait-based • E xisting knowledge + expert opinion • Group workshop to discuss results Methodology overview: exposure Surface oxygen – hammerhead shark • Measure of how much a species is likely to experience a change in climate • S patial overlap - species’ current distribution and the expected climate change • Mean change is related to current variability • Changes in variability are measured with an F-test (future variability/current variability)
Modeled exposure factors from www.esrl.noaa.gov (ensemble, RCP 8.5).
Very High
Pelagics High
Sensitivity Slender armorhead Moderate Striped marlin Two spot snapper Bigeye tuna Mahimahi Low Skipjack tuna Wahoo Yellowfin tuna
Low Moderate High Very High
Exposure
Very High Sharks
Oceanic whitetip shark High Scalloped hammerhead
Sensitivity Silky shark Pelagic thresher Moderate shark White-tip reef shark
Gray reef shark Low
Low Moderate High Very High
Exposure
Very High
Deep slope High
Deep-water red snapper Moderate
Sensitivity Hawaiian grouper Slender armorhead Deepwater longtail red snapper Golden eye jobfish Goldflag jobfish Green jobfish Low Lavender jobfish Oblique-banded snapper Pink snapper Rusty jobfish Low Moderate High Very High Exposure
Very High
Coastal High
Moderate
Sensitivity
Bigeye scad
Bonefish
Greater amberjack Low Mackerel scad
Mullet
Threadfin
Low Moderate High Very High
Exposure
Very High
Coral reef: High
Blacktip grouper Jacks, Moderate Whitesaddle goatfish Bluefin trevally Emperors, Sensitivity Bluestripe snapper Dash-and-dot Goatfish, goatfish Giant trevally Snappers Humpnose big-eye Low bream Orange-striped emperor Peacock grouper Yellowfin goatfish Yellowstripe goatfish Low Moderate High Very High Exposure
Very High
Coral reef
High parrotfish Bumphead parrotfish Moderate
Sensitivity Steephead parrotfish Blue-barred parrotfish Bullethead parrotfish Marbled parrotfish Pacific longnose parrotfish Low Palenose parrotfish Redlip parrotfish Spectacled parrotfish Tanned-faced parrotfish Low Moderate High Very High
Exposure
Very High Coral reef surgeonfish High
Achilles tang Bluespine unicornfish Moderate
Sensitivity Eyestripe surgeonfish Yellow tang Bristle-toothed surgeonfish Low Convict tang Sleek unicornfish
Low Moderate High Very High
Exposure
Very High
Arceye hawkfish High Other coral reef Ornate butterflyfish
Achilles tang Green damselfish Moderate Humphead wrasse Little spine foot
Sensitivity Blotcheye soldierfish Brassy chub Brown chub Gold spotted Low spinefoot Humpnose big-eye bream Pinecone soldierfish Sabre squirrelfish Tripletail wrasse Low Moderate High Very High Exposure
Very High Invertebrates Limpet Black teatfish
Collector urchin High Maxima clam Surf redfish White teatfish Sensitivity Black sea cucumber Kona crab Moderate Palolo worm Spiny lobster Blue octopus Low Samoan crab Low Moderate High Very High
Exposure Primary drivers of vulnerability are high exposure scores for SST, OA, O2 Next steps: Vulnerability narrative Hare et al. 2016 How will results be used? Science Identify: •Vulnerable species •Key environmental drivers • Unknowns in species biology and ecology Management •Provide context for fisheries management decisions •I dentify future scenarios + potential actions •Support resilient oceans and human communities
Awknowledgements • The thinkers: Mark Hixon, Rob, Howard Choat, Charles Birkeland, Marlowe Sabater, Ivor Williams, Michael Trianni, Phoebe Woodworth-Jefcoats, Jacob Asher, Bruce Mundy, Mark Fitchett, Johanna Wren, Joseph O’Malley, Melanie Hutchinson • Support: Headquarters; Roger Griffis; Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center: Michael Seki, Evan Howell; Ecosystem Sciences Division: Frank Parrish, Rusty Brainard; JIMAR: Jeff Hare, Melanie Abecassis; Early discussions: Lida Teneva, Malin Pinsky, Jen Howard.