Persistence and Activation of Right-Wing Political Ideology Davide Cantoni Felix Hagemeister Mark Westcott* May 2020 Abstract We argue that persistence of right-wing ideology can explain the recent rise of populism. Shifts in the supply of party platforms interact with an existing demand, giving rise to hitherto in- visible patterns of persistence. The emergence of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) offered German voters a populist right-wing option with little social stigma attached. We show that municipalities that expressed strong support for the Nazi party in 1933 are more likely to vote for the AfD. These dynamics are not generated by a concurrent rightward shift in political attitudes, nor by other factors or shocks commonly associated with right-wing populism. Keywords: Persistence, Culture, Right-wing ideology, Germany JEL Classification: D72, N44, P16 *Cantoni: Ludwig-Maximilians-Universitat¨ Munich, CEPR, and CESifo. Email:
[email protected]. Hagemeister: Ludwig-Maximilians-Universitat¨ Munich. Email:
[email protected]. Westcott: Vivid Economics, Lon- don. Email:
[email protected]. We would like to thank Leonardo Bursztyn, Vicky Fouka, Mathias Buhler,¨ Joan Monras, Nathan Nunn, Andreas Steinmayr, Joachim Voth, Fabian Waldinger, Noam Yuchtman, Ekaterina Zhuravskaya and seminar participants in Berkeley (Haas), CERGE-EI, CEU, Copenhagen, Dusseldorf,¨ EUI, Geneva, Hebrew, IDC Herzliya, Lund, Munich (LMU), Nuremberg, Paris (PSE and Sciences Po), Passau, Pompeu Fabra, Stock- holm (SU), Trinity College Dublin, and Uppsala for helpful comments. We thank Florian Caro, Louis-Jonas Hei- zlsperger, Moritz Leitner, Lenny Rosen and Ann-Christin Schwegmann for excellent research assistance. Edyta Bogucka provided outstanding GIS assistance. Financial support from the Munich Graduate School of Economics and by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft through CRC-TRR 190 is gratefully acknowledged.