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Signs of Revival After Years of Pain

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Signs of Revival After Years of Pain FT SPECIAL REPORT Greece Monday July 7 2014 www.ft.com/reports | @ftreports Signs of revival after years of pain Inside » Growth worries Economy makes progress but a Then come long-awaited negotia- lasting recovery is Confidence is slowly tions with the EU and IMF on debt the big challenge relief. These are made more compli- returning but hurdles cated by differences over whether Page 2 Greece should be offered another debt still loom ahead, “haircut” on top of its 2012 sovereign debt restructuring as the Fund would Cheaper debt is writes Kerin Hope prefer, or settle for the commission’s proposal of a lower interest rate and a sign of times lengthening of maturities. Return to global he signs of economic crisis “We will be in a room with two are visible everywhere in elephants and we’ll have to tiptoe capital markets Athens, from shuttered shops between them in order to come away marks turnround and graffiti-sprayed public with an agreement,” says a senior buildings to people of all Greek official. “But what matters is to Page 2 Tages ransacking dustbins in wealthier reduce the debt burden for the next neighbourhoods of the capital. generation by one means or another.” Six years of recession, the deepest A third worry for Mr Samaras is the Stumbling on in memory, have taken a heavy toll election by parliament next February on Greece. of a new president to replace the Next few months The country’s output shrank by incumbent Karolos Papoulias, who is will be critical for almost 25 per cent, as tens of thou- retiring. sands of family-owned businesses col- If parliament fails to elect a presi- survival of the lapsed, while pensioners and the dent with the required three-fifths ND­Pasok coalition unemployed suffered a disastrous fall majority, a general election must be in living standards amid deep cuts in held, which pollsters already forecast Page 3 social spending. would lead to the formation of With jobs disappearing at an another coalition government. This unprecedented rate, more than 100,000 would delay the completion of struc- Optimism over skilled Greeks migrated to work in tural reforms aimed at boosting com- Germany, the UK and the Gulf states, petition and making Greece more visitor numbers knowing that it may be years before attractive to investors. Tourism bounces they can resume careers at home. Still to be addressed is the politi- The crisis also pushed desperate cally sensitive question of a new aid back – now for a Greeks into voting for insurgent yet Cup that cheers: fans at the Fifa World Cup in Brazil, where Greece reached the last 16 for the first time AP package for Greece after the current move upmarket backward-looking parties, Syriza on EU programme runs out at the end of the far left and the neo-Nazi Golden this year, even though the IMF is to Page 4 Dawn on the right. Both support a by disputes with contractors, and the of 1.5 per cent of national output, be heading for a sustained recovery. disburse another €16bn over the next return to statist policies that triggered increasing availability of loans from before interest payments. This sug- The first is the European Central 18 months. financial collapse and the threat of a newly recapitalised banks. gests that improvements in tax collec- Bank’s stress testing of eurozone The “troika” of officials from the “Grexit” – Greek exit – from the euro. Greece’s successful return to inter- tion are being maintained, even banks this year, which is expected to commission, the IMF and the Euro- On FT.com » Yet there are signs that wrenching national capital markets in April has though a small group of politically- give an accurate picture of Greek pean Central Bank have identified a reforms imposed in return for the cur- boosted confidence in the country’s connected Greeks are still able to lenders’ non-performing loan portfo- looming funding gap of some €12bn, Exports bolster rent €172bn bailout by the EU and the medium-term prospects, encouraging avoid paying their full tax obligations. lios, settle a long-running debate yet Greek finance ministry officials International Monetary Fund are hedge funds and private equity groups These developments contribute to about the banks’ recapitalisation claim it is smaller and can be plugged sales at mattress finally starting to bear fruit. to take a closer look at Greek compa- the narrative of a Greek “success needs and lead to writedowns of bad through careful management of the maker Coco­Mat Growth is set to turn positive this nies that have survived the crisis. story” being promoted by prime min- debt on a scale that will prevent public finances and judicious borrow- year and accelerate in 2015, driven by Budget figures for the first five ister Antonis Samaras and his govern- “zombie” companies from draining ing on international capital markets. www.ft.com/ a boom in tourism, the revival of EU- months show revenues on track to hit ment. However, more hurdles must be funds needed for healthy businesses greece­2014 backed infrastructure projects stalled this year’s target of a primary surplus overcome before Greece can claim to to grow. Continued on Page 3 2 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES MONDAY JULY 7 2014 Greece Credit expansion and loan quality are priorities Cheaper debt says loans left unserviced This year the four banks lack of liquidity, because at Alpha Bank, says the offered from September, marks change Banks for more than 90 days stood have raised another €8.3bn banks are reluctant to effort to transform Greece’s with banks able to borrow at €77bn or 36 per cent of on international capital extend credit to support a introverted, consumption- at 0.25 per cent provided The ECB stress tests the total portfolio in April. markets to bolster capital recovery. They point out oriented economy into one they meet the ECB’s lend- are focusing minds, Senior Greek bankers say adequacy ratios, following a that credit to the private based on exports and ing target. in fortunes they are expected to peak stress test carried out by sector has been shrinking investment has already Greek banks have lost says Dimitris early next year. the Bank of Greece together since 2010, falling another “left many corporate bor- more than €79bn of deposits One of Mr Stournaras’s with BlackRock, an invest- 3.7 per cent in April on an rowers with business mod- since the crisis erupted in Kontogiannis first tasks will be to con- ment management com- annual basis. els based on the old para- 2009, through capital flight Second, evidence has sider whether Greece pany. The fund-raisings Bankers are quick to digm in distress. and withdrawals of savings Capital markets mounted that Greece’s for- Greece’s economy is stabil- should set up a standalone have also allowed banks to reject such criticism. Chris “We shouldn’t expect the by households hit hard by tunes have changed. “We ising after six years of “bad bank” for systemic repay preference shares restructured Greek banking the recession. Until their After the woes of have reached an inflection recession and will need banks’ non-performing held by the Greek state. sector to help revive such recent return to capital four years ago, point,” says George Sarave- credit expansion to achieve loans – which would However, the Interna- companies through liquid- markets, the banks relied los, a Deutsche Bank strate- a sustained revival of require additional funding – tional Monetary Fund says ‘The banks’ role will ity injections. The role of heavily on ECB funding sentiment turns, gist. “The big problem over growth. or rely on pressing the banks may need as much as be to fund ventures banks will be to fund ven- and emergency liquidity the past three years was Yet the country’s four banks’ internal restructur- €15bn in extra capital to tures in extrovert sectors assistance from the Greek says Ralph Atkins that we could not see the systemically important ing units to move faster. write down bad loans more in extrovert sectors that have robust business central bank. light at the end of the tun- banks, recapitalised with Previous efforts to aggressively. It argues that models,” Mr Lianeris says. Petros Christodoulou, In just a few hours one day nel in terms of stability. more than €35bn over the restructure key sectors that an overhang of private debt that have robust However, the banks’ deputy chief executive at in early April, Greece dem- “But at the end of last past year, are taking a cau- have a high percentage of will undermine growth if business models’ capacity to boost lending National Bank of Greece, onstrated just how much year, things stopped getting tious stance ahead of this bad loans – among them the resources remain trapped in will also depend on their the second-largest commer- the tide of global investor worse. It changed percep- year’s European Central hotel, construction and fish- unproductive activities. access to the ECB’s new cial lender, is cautious sentiment had turned in its tions.” Bank stress tests. farming industries – have Some local analysts dis- Megalou, chief executive of programme of cheap loans about TLTRO funding, even favour. Greece has reduced its With one of the world’s been constrained by diffi- agree. Kostas Manolopou- Athens-based Eurobank, known as “targeted long- though it would allow The country’s first foray current account deficit and highest ratios of non- culties in persuading banks los, head of research at says: “The credit contrac- term refinancing opera- banks to provide liquidity into global capital markets is running a budget surplus performing loans, Greek and company owners to co- Investment Bank of Greece, tion is mainly a function of tions” or TLTRO.
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