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4273 Mechanisms of Policy Change Inside International
Angelos Angelou LSE| European Institute Word count: 4,273 Mechanisms of policy change inside International Organizations during times of crisis: Evidence from the cooperation of the Troika institutions vis-à-vis the handling of the Greek debt Abstract This note will establish that the observed mechanisms of policy change inside the EC and the ECB vis-à-vis the handling of the Greek debt disconfirm certain central theoretical expectations of the policy change literature. By juxtaposing the most basic theoretical insights of the policy change research with a new dataset that describes the interactions of the Troika institutions regarding the handling of the Greek debt we will establish that the mode of change inside the two European institutions was unexpected and puzzling from a theoretical point of view. The study of such a failed most-likely case will provide detailed insights regarding the processes of change inside IOs during times of crisis and will allow us to modify the respective hypotheses of the policy change literature. Introduction The Eurozone bailouts have been a matter of extensive academic and political discussion. One of the less examined aspects of the crisis is the cooperation between the three organizations that undertook the drafting and the daily management of the programs. The International Monetary Fund (IMF), the European Commission (EC) and the European Central Bank (ECB), created an ad hoc body, the Troika that operated as the directorate and the meditator via which the debtors coordinated with their creditors. This note will use one of the numerous disagreements that arose during this cooperation in order to study the process of policy change inside the three Troika bodies. -
Calendar of Benoît Cœuré, November 2016 1
Calendar of Benoît Cœuré Member of the ECB's Executive Board November 2016 Meeting / Event Date (incl. topic / meeting participants, as applicable) Location Tuesday, 1 November Meeting with HSBC, on global economic and financial Frankfurt developments Wednesday, 2 November Banking Industry Dialogue ECB Meeting with high-level independent evaluator of past ECB European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) and European Stability Mechanism (ESM) financial assistance programmes, Ms Gertrude Tumpel-Gugerell, on ex post evaluation of EFSF and ESM programmes Governing Council ECB Thursday, 3 November Meeting with Morgan Stanley, on developments in the ECB European Union Europe on Credit Series, organised by Harvard Universityʼs Cambridge, Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies – keynote MA address on “Sovereign debt in the euro area: too safe or too risky?” Friday, 4 November Meeting with Harvard University, on research on monetary Cambridge, policy and financial regulation MA Sunday, 6 November Meeting with US Federal Reserve System, Ms Janet Basel Yellen, and Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Mr William C. Dudley, on global economic and financial developments Monday, 7 November Bank for International Settlements (BIS) – bi-monthly Basel meetings Eurogroup Brussels Tuesday, 8 November Executive Board ECB Meeting with Mr Vivien Lévy-Garboua, on a project for the ECB French Treasury on post-trade activities in Europe Calendar of Benoît Cœuré, November 2016 1 Meeting with media Frankfurt Wednesday, 9 November Meeting with media Lyons Les -
Risk and Regulation Monthly November 2020 Contents
CENTRE for REGULATORY STRATEGY EMEA Risk and Regulation Monthly November 2020 Contents CONTENTS HIGHLIGHTS COVID-19 BANKING CAPITAL MARKETS INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT CENTRAL BANK OF IRELAND OTHER CONTACTS Highlights In Ireland, the Central Bank published the outcome of its thematic review of fund management companies. It was found that a significant number of firms have not fully implemented the framework for governance, management and oversight in fund management companies. The European Commission published a consultation on AIFMD. This ask respondents whether fund delegation rules should be accompanied with quantitative criteria or a list of core functions that cannot be delegated. For a full list of COVID-19 related regulatory, monetary and fiscal policy initiatives, please see our report available here. COVID-19 Speech by Pablo Hernández de Cos, Governor of the Bank of Spain, on EU Spain's experience with risks and ECB vulnerabilities in the corporate sector as a result of the COVID-19 crisis Speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board at the ECB, on the Speech by Luigi Federico Signorini, ECB’s monetary policy in the pandemic Deputy Governor at the Bank of Italy on mobilising private finance for a Interview of Christine Lagarde, green recovery and hence “building President of the ECB on the role of the back better” ECB in non-normal times Macroprudential bulletin covering the Speech by Randal K Quarles, Vice usability of capital buffers Chairman for Supervision of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve ECB - -
POLITICAL CLIMATE REPORT Prior to the Prior to to Assuage the Uncertainty That Has Been Plaguing the Argentine Economy Since April This Year
CONTACT INFORMATION POLITICAL & REGULATORY RISKS [email protected] Juan Cruz Díaz [email protected] www.cefeidas.com Madeleine Elder +54 (11) 5238 0991 (ARG) [email protected] +1 (646) 233 3204 (USA) Megan Cook Torre Bellini [email protected] Esmeralda 950 Sergio Espinosa Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires [email protected] (C1007ABL) República Argentina Political Climate Report - ARGENTINA September 28, 2018 POLITICAL CLIMATE REPORT IN THIS ISSUE The Macri administration is looking to restore confidence in the markets Page 3 following weeks of economic turmoil. A modified agreement between Government reduces cabinet ministries Argentina and the International Monetary Fund, changes in central bank in effort to show austerity strategy and the ongoing debate to finalize the 2019 budget may prove Page 5 pivotal to stabilize the local economy. With brewing social unrest, Unions hold fourth general strike ongoing corruption investigations into the previous administrations and Page 6 Macri’s announced bid for reelection in 2019, the government will have Carlos Rosenkrantz named new to perform a delicate balancing act between mitigating short-term president of the Supreme Court unrest and achieving longer-term objectives. Page 7 More chapters in the notebooks scandal Tying it all together: the IMF agreement, central bank Page 8 changes, and the 2019 budget G20 watch In late August and early September, the Macri administration scrambled to respond to a fresh plunge in the already-depreciated Argentine peso (relative to the U.S. dollar). The crisis culminated in a series of measures taken by the government to reassure investors and restore confidence in the markets, including renegotiating the USD 50 billion stand-by agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), tightening 2019 budget and cutting the number of ministries. -
Ignazio Visco: the fi Nancial Crisis and Economists’ Forecasts
Ignazio Visco: The fi nancial crisis and economists’ forecasts Commencement address by Mr Ignazio Visco, Deputy Director General of the Bank of Italy, to the students of the Master in Public Economics at the Faculty of Economics, La Sapienza University, Rome, 4 March 2009. While I alone am responsible for the views put forward in this paper, I wish to thank Fabio Busetti, Michele Caivano, Eugenio Gaiotti, Alberto Locarno, Sergio Nicoletti Altimari, Patrizio Pagano, Fabio Panetta and Stefano Siviero for discussions on its various parts and for their practical assistance. The original speech, which contains various links to the documents mentioned, can be found on the Bank of Italy’s website. 1. Introduction T IS PERHAPS early to draw lessons from the crisis that has hit the global economy. The crisis appears severe and widespread, its effects far-reaching and long-lasting. IMeasures of various kinds have been taken or are in the process of being taken regarding monetary policy, the use of public resources and the revision of rules and institutions on which the proper functioning of the markets and the operation of fi nancial intermediaries depend. The present is undoubtedly a period of maximum efforts on the part of economic policy and overall political action, efforts that are directly proportional to the seriousness of the crisis. But this is also a moment in which the interpretative models used in analyzing our economies start being reconsidered and attempts are being made at identifying the reasons underlying the failures of markets, economic policies and economists’ forecasts. Besides, this is also necessary in order to better defi ne interventions – global, substantial, focused and lasting – aimed at overcoming the crisis and, as far as possible, preventing, with the design of new rules, new institutions and new policies, such serious instability from occurring again. -
Centro Estratégico Latinoamericano De Geopolítica Informe Apuntes
Centro Estratégico Latinoamericano de Geopolítica Informe Apuntes sobre el gabinete económico de Mauricio Macri Por Agustín Lewit y Silvina M. Romano Tal como se esperaba, el gabinete de ministros que acompañará a Mauricio Macri en su presidencia tiene una fuerte impronta neoliberal, pro-mercado y empresarial. Previo a la asunción formal, varios de los ministros realizaron acciones que preanuncian lo que será el rumbo económico del gobierno entrante. Al respecto, alcanza con mencionar tres de ellas: 1) La conversación que mantuvo el flamante ministro de Hacienda argentino, Alfonso Prat-Gay, con el secretario del Tesoro estadounidense, Jacob Lew, al cual le adelantó las líneas macroeconómicas del futuro gobierno, antes de que el mismo las haga explícita en el propio país; 2) la reunión del flamante secretario de Finanzas de Argentina, Luis Caputo, con representantes de los fondos buitre para avanzar en un posible acuerdo entre las partes; y, 3) los anuncios de la flamante canciller argentina, Susana Malcorra respecto a que “el ALCA no es una mala palabra”, haciendo alusión a la posible futura firma de un TLC con EEUU. En líneas generales, una devaluación de la moneda, sumada a una mayor apertura comercial y a la toma de deuda son las coordenadas que marcarán el nuevo rumbo económico del país. Vale la pena recordar que la devaluación implica, básicamente, la licuación de los ingresos de los asalariados y una transferencia de riqueza hacia los sectores con capacidad para dolarizar sus activos, generalmente grande firmas locales y multinacionales. Esto ayuda a comprender en buena medida el grupo de gente seleccionada para los ministerios. -
Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis Briefing ...A Briefing on the Status, Causes and Solutions for the Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis
Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis Briefing ...a briefing on the status, causes and solutions for the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis October 22, 2012 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis - Current Status The European Central Bank (ECB) at its meeting in Septem- Europe Big-Four 10-year Bond Yields ber finally came to the rescue and offered to directly partici- 7.50% Spain Spain 7.00% pate in a bailout program for struggling countries such as Italy 6.50% Spain. The ECB promised to use its unlimited balance sheet Germany 6.00% to help stabilize the Eurozone debt crisis, taking a big step France forward and succeeding in causing Spanish and Italian bond 5.50% 5.00% yields to drop sharply. There are still many obstacles to over- 4.50% Italy come, but there is finally a sense that there might be a path 4.00% forward in the Eurozone debt crisis without an implosion of 3.50% France the euro or the loss of Eurozone members. 3.00% 2.50% The markets at present are waiting for three major events. 2.00% 1.50% First, the markets are waiting for a deal that provides Greece Germany 1.00% with its next 31 billion euro tranche of bailout aid. Second, 9/10 11/10 1/11 3/11 5/11 7/11 9/11 11/11 1/12 3/12 5/12 7/12 9/12 the markets are waiting for Spain to formally accept the bail- out program offered by the ECB and the Eurozone through its European Stability Mechanism (ESM) permanent bailout in Spain and Greece and protect Italy from contagion. -
POLICY INSIGHT No.68 December 2013
abcd a POLICY INSIGHT No.68 December 2013 The aftermath of the crisis: Regulation, supervision and the role of central banks Ignazio Visco Governor, Bank of Italy Introduction trillion at the end of 2006, 700 at the end of 2007 and still 700 trillion in December 2012. The financial crisis has brought to the fore a number of issues. It has been severe and Financial deepening, by allowing greater widespread, and has affected many economies diversification of risk and making finance in different and long-lasting ways. Maintaining accessible to larger numbers of countries and firms, financial stability has once again become a major can be instrumental to broadening economic concern of policymakers and central banks are development. But there is a risk that finance turns heavily involved in this endeavour. A clear need into an end in itself, with consequences that can has emerged for a substantial overhaul in financial be more damaging as the system becomes more regulation and supervision, also considering that interconnected and the potential for externalities the financial system of tomorrow will most likely increases. be rather different from the one that has developed over the last two decades. Scepticism has grown At the same time, the interaction between about the role of finance in the economic system, monetary policy and financial stability becomes and especially its apparent separation from, if not more relevant as heightened financial complexity conflict with, the real economy. We should take amplifies the widespread non-linearities in the stock of what has gone wrong, and in so doing dynamics of financial and economic variables, and reflect on the way forward – as it is already taking the consequences of interconnections between the shape – as well as on how to better link our theories financial and the real side of the economy. -
FOREWORD by the WTO DIRECTOR-GENERAL Promoting, Openness, Fairness and Predictability in International Trade for the Benefit of Humanity…
FOREWORD BY THE WTO DIRECTOR-GENERAL Promoting, openness, fairness and predictability in international trade for the benefit of humanity… We all now know that no nation alone can ensure clean air, an efficient tax system or face the great challenges of our age without the cooperation of others. That's why we created international institutions and agreements such as the United Nations, the World Bank, the International Labour Organization, the Antarctic Agreement and the World Trade Organiza- tion. As the nation state is responsible for negotiating and ratifying these agreements, there is an urgent need for governments to ensure there is accountability and ownership of these institutions by governments. This is a complex challenge. The WTO is a government-to-government organization. We don't tell governments what to do. They tell us. We operate by consensus, thus every member government has veto power. Our agreements are negotiated by ambassadors or ministers who represent their governments and who, in turn, are responsible for advancing their government's agenda. That's why it is important for parliamentarians and legislators to know about the institutions they own and fund. It is important for them to also know that they have access to an invaluable resource at the WTO Secretariat to help them pass the right rules for their country and for their people. To me one of the measurements of an ordered society is how we manage differences. Is it by the rule of law or by force? Ours is an imperfect rules based system in need of constant attention. There is growing controversy about the benefits of 'globalization'. -
New IMF Program, New BCRA Governor, New Policies
27 Sep 2018 Research Briefing | Argentina New IMF program, new BCRA governor, new policies Economist Argentina and the IMF have agreed on a new, revised stand-by arrangement Carlos de Sousa increasing the size of the program from $50bn to $57.1bn. More importantly, the revised program secures the government’s financing needs through 2019, as Senior Economist $51.2bn of the $57.1bn will be made available by end-2019. Thus, Argentina +44(0)20 3910 8016 should not need to tap global markets until 2020. The inflation targeting framework will be replaced by a target of 0% base money growth until June 2019. The BCRA will have to let the markets set the 7-day Leliq rate as high as necessary to achieve this goal. The new policy stance is much more contractionary than the previous one, which let the monetary base to increase by 5.4% m/m on average in the last three months. The BCRA has also introduced a set of moving bands on its floating exchange rate regime and will only intervene when the peso exceeds a wide 34-44/$1 range. FX interventions will be limited to just $150mn per day, but as monetary aggregates contract in real terms and domestic demand falters due to the ongoing recession, the local demand for FX will eventually decline. An appreciation to the lower band is not implausible. Yesterday, 26 September, Argentina and the IMF announced their much anticipated The revised IMF revised stand-by arrangement. The new program increases the total available funds from program is sufficient $50bn to $57.1bn, slightly larger than the $53-55bn that had been expected. -
Political Climate Report
CONTACT INFORMATION POLITICAL & REGULATORY RISKS [email protected] Juan Cruz Díaz [email protected] www.cefeidas.com Heidi Lough +54 (11) 5238 0991 (ARG) [email protected] +1 (646) 233 3204 (USA) Madeleine Elder Suipacha 1322 - PB “A” [email protected] Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires Megan Cook (C1011ACD) [email protected] República Argentina Tattie Knutson [email protected] Political Climate Report - ARGENTINA February 7, 2017 POLITICAL CLIMATE REPORT IN THIS ISSUE The government made a dynamic start to the year, defining a clear Page 2 set of goals for 2017 and making changes to key posts. It is betting that high public works spending will generate an economic Other changes to key government posts recovery and increase its electoral chances in the upcoming midterms, although inflation and securing foreign investment will Successful tax amnesty draws billions out of hiding continue to be major challenges. Moreover, as the elections approach, opposition actors will begin to more actively resist the Page 3 government’s agenda, hinted at in recent weeks by a deterioration Dujovne’s debut in relations with powerful labor unions. When Congress resumes Ruling by decree sessions, this will likely be reflected in increased reluctance to back government-led legislation. However, the government’s position is Page 4 stable enough to ensure that even a difficult year would not Challenges in the year ahead seriously threaten governability. Will Trump’s policies sour Argentine-US ties? Prat-Gay departs in shake-up ahead of New Year Page 5 The resignation of Treasury and Finance Minister Alfonso Prat-Gay Collective bargaining season looms in a day after Christmas was the first major change to President key test for gov’t Mauricio Macri’s cabinet since he took office a little more than a Page 6 year ago. -
Argentina Rising
AN ADVERTISING SUPPLEMENT TO THE WASHINGTON POST #Argentina #TheWorldfolio Friday, April 28, 2017 01 ARGENTINA RISING President Mauricio Macri’s message of integration with the international community has drawn the praise of foreign investors and world leaders. Will it be enough to break with historical trends at home and establish long-term, inclusive growth? A century ago, Argentina was “Our society looks at our one of the world’s ten wealthiest nations, as the grand buildings past of cyclical crises and towering over the streets of Bue- at the examples of coun- nos Aires attest. From the ornate tries that have been able Teatro Colón from 1908, one of to develop sustainably and the world’s finest opera houses, to the French-style Retiro railway sees that we can achieve station from 1915, the city’s ar- much more if we come chitecture speaks to the glory of together and try to imple- this once-eminent nation. But as ment not only economic a result of economic mismanage- ment by successive governments, and political change, but Argentina is no longer synonymous also changes in values” with prosperity, and instead has seen its reputation damaged by MAURICIO MACRI, the hyperinflation of 1989-90, the economic meltdown of 2001 and President of Argentina its run on banks, to its headline- grabbing loan default in 2014 with a group of holdout bondholders. notion of being integrated to the From the local and international world in terms of investment, investment outlook, however, it trade, technology and ideas has seems as if better days are on the to be reinforced by every area in way.