Ignazio Visco: the fi Nancial Crisis and Economists’ Forecasts
Ignazio Visco: The fi nancial crisis and economists’ forecasts Commencement address by Mr Ignazio Visco, Deputy Director General of the Bank of Italy, to the students of the Master in Public Economics at the Faculty of Economics, La Sapienza University, Rome, 4 March 2009. While I alone am responsible for the views put forward in this paper, I wish to thank Fabio Busetti, Michele Caivano, Eugenio Gaiotti, Alberto Locarno, Sergio Nicoletti Altimari, Patrizio Pagano, Fabio Panetta and Stefano Siviero for discussions on its various parts and for their practical assistance. The original speech, which contains various links to the documents mentioned, can be found on the Bank of Italy’s website. 1. Introduction T IS PERHAPS early to draw lessons from the crisis that has hit the global economy. The crisis appears severe and widespread, its effects far-reaching and long-lasting. IMeasures of various kinds have been taken or are in the process of being taken regarding monetary policy, the use of public resources and the revision of rules and institutions on which the proper functioning of the markets and the operation of fi nancial intermediaries depend. The present is undoubtedly a period of maximum efforts on the part of economic policy and overall political action, efforts that are directly proportional to the seriousness of the crisis. But this is also a moment in which the interpretative models used in analyzing our economies start being reconsidered and attempts are being made at identifying the reasons underlying the failures of markets, economic policies and economists’ forecasts. Besides, this is also necessary in order to better defi ne interventions – global, substantial, focused and lasting – aimed at overcoming the crisis and, as far as possible, preventing, with the design of new rules, new institutions and new policies, such serious instability from occurring again.
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