ETHIOPIA Food Security Outlook Update November 2010

Poor water availability in the southeast likely to follow below-average Oct-Dec rains Key Messages Figure 1. Estimated food security outcomes, October to December 2010  To date, the performance of bega/hageya/deyr rains has been below average as predicted. This has resulted in shortages of pasture and water in the southeastern pastoral and agropastoral parts of the country.

 Land preparation and planting of transitional crops, mainly sweet potato has been carried out as usual in SNNPR. Performance of these crops will highly depend on the performance of the sapie rains in December that are predicted to be normal to below normal this year.

 Overall meher season crop harvests (October to January) are expected to be normal to above normal this year, except in areas that were affected by water logging, floods, and yellow wheat rust, resulting in an overall improvement

in food security in dominantly meher crop producing parts Source: FEWS NET and WFP of the country. Figure 2. Estimated food security outcomes, January to March 2010

Updated food security outlook through March 2011

The period November to March is typically a time of stable food security in Ethiopia given the meher harvest (October to January) which contributes 90 to 95 percent of total annual crop production. With the start of the harvest, staple food prices typically decline, further contributing to the improvement of food security. This year, the overall performance of meher season crops has been average to above average, although localized shocks led to reductions in production in some areas. In most pastoral parts of the country, the gu/gana/sugum (April to June) rains were also average to above average, improving overall pastoral conditions. Prices of staples in these areas are low and livestock prices are high. However, despite these Source: FEWS NET and WFP general improvements in food security, poor households across For more information on FEWS NET’s Food Insecurity Severity much of the country continue to be moderately to highly food Scale, please see: www.fews.net/FoodInsecurityScale insecure due to chronic issues and a range of different shocks, including the poor start of the deyr/hageya rains.

Food security in most parts of Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples Region continues to be good following average to above‐average meher season production. The performance of wheat and barley crops, however, is reported to be below average due to yellow wheat rust in mid‐ and highland areas of Guraghe, Siltie, Kembata Tembaro, Hadiya, and Wolayta zones and in the wheat and barley producing woredas of Gamo Gofa. The wheat rust is expected to result in substantial

This report provides an update to the October 2010 FEWS NET Food Security Outlook report which estimated food security conditions through March 2011. The next Outlook report will be released in January and will cover the January to July 2011 period. FEWS NET Washington FEWS NET Ethiopia 1717 H St NW FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The authors’ views expressed in this Tel: 251 11 662 0216 publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency Washington DC 20006 [email protected] for International Development or the United States Government. [email protected]

www.fews.net/ethiopia

ETHIOPIA Food Security Outlook Update November 2010

wheat yield reductions in these zones. Wheat is an important source of cash Figure 3. Precipitation Anomaly (mm) and food in many livelihoods zones in these areas. For example, wheat’s NOAA/CPC RFE Climatology Method, contribution to total annual cash income ranges from 20 to 60 percent across October 1 to November 10, 2010 the different wealth groups in Hadiya Kembata Cereal and Enset Livelihood Zone. In the coffee producing woredas of Sidama and Gedeo zones, coffee production is expected to decline by 30 to 55 percent due to excessive rainfall during the kiremt (June to September) period compared to last year. In addition, coffee production is cyclical, with every other year (including this year) tending to be poor, regardless of climatic conditions. Although the production of coffee is low, the farm gate price of coffee is reported to be 40 to 50 percent higher than that of last year. This is expected to partly offset the decline in coffee producer income related to poor production. However, the impact of the reduced production on labor demand and wages will persist and is expected to have a negative impact on the food security of the poor and the very poor people in these zones that depend on income from coffee labor. These people are expected to continue to be highly food insecure through the outlook period.

Land preparation and planting of sweet potato has taken place normally in central SNNPR. Sweet potato is an important transitional crop which is Source: NOAA consumed during the lean season between March and May before the belg season harvest begins in June/July in these areas. Performance of sweet potato will depend on the sapie rains in December that are predicted to be normal to below normal this year. If the rains perform below normal and result in poor production of sweet potato, there will be a high level of food insecurity in this densely populated part of the country due to shortages of food at the household level.

The overall meher season performance in Gambella region was good this year except for parts of the region that were affected by floods. Prospects for fishing are good this year due to good performance of the kiremt (June to September) rains and recession agriculture is expected to begin soon with the decline in river levels. There haven’t been any fresh conflicts in the region and most of the region continues to be generally food secure except for the border woredas with Sudan where about 24,000 people remain displaced due to conflict with Sudanese communities across the border. There could be increased displacement in these border woredas with the referendum in Sudan in January making these woredas highly food insecure.

Overall food security has also improved in the eastern meher producing areas with the start of the meher harvest (barley, wheat, beans, lentils, and teff) in October as well as ongoing PSNP and emergency food aid distributions in some zones, such as East and West Hararghe zones of Oromia. Meher season production is generally good this year following the normal to above normal kiremt season rains. The above‐normal rains led to flooding in North and South Wollo and Oromia zones of Amhara region which affected thousands of people and caused significant damage to crops in the middle of the growing season. Most people displaced by the floods have returned to their areas of origin and some have replanted their fields, however it was late in the season and the kiremt (June to September) rains may have ceased before the crops were able to mature. Detailed information on the performance of replanted crops and food security situation of the people affected by the floods is expected from the meher season assessment that is scheduled to start on the 21 November and will take three weeks. There was also an outbreak of yellow rust in the wheat growing areas, with the most affected areas being North Shewa and South Gondar zones. In East and West Hararghe zones of Oromia, crops which were replanted following dry spells and water logging, were then affected by the early cessation of the kiremt rains. Finally, critical water shortages are also reported in the lowland woredas of Midega Tola, Kumbi, parts of Gursum, and Babile woredas of East Hararghe zone.

The meher harvest will improve access and food availability at household level and hence food insecurity among most poor households will remain moderate through March 2011 in these areas. However, many households in the most flood affected woredas of North Wollo, South Wollo, and Oromia zones of Amhara and some woredas of East and West Hararghe zones of Oromia regions are likely to be highly food insecure as of January due to the anticipated loss of harvest as a result of excessive rains, water logging and moisture stress. These areas include parts of Kobo, Habru and Guba Lafto of North Wollo; Dewa Chefe, Artuma Fursi and Jile Timuga of Oromia zone; and Ambassel, Kalu, Tehuledre, Dessie Zuria and Leghida woredas of South Wollo zone. Moisture stress in woredas like Ebinat of South Gondar and Bati of Oromia zone of Amhara

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2 ETHIOPIA Food Security Outlook Update November 2010

region also affected meher season crop production. High food insecurity will also persist until the next belg harvest begins in June/July 2011 among poor households in the predominantly belg producing areas of North and South Wollo zones of Amhara that have high dependence on belg season crops.

The food security situation in Afar region and the northern two zones of Somali Region is generally stable, although chronic water problems in some of the northern woredas and the impacts of severe floods along the banks of Awash put some of the hardest hit areas at risk of food insecurity in the coming months. The overall stability in food security is because of improvements in the physical condition and productivity of livestock that resulted from good pasture and water availability following good Karma (main season) rains between July and September. Milk production, particularly from camels and shoats, has improved significantly. Prospects for rain‐fed crop harvests in many agro‐pastoral areas, including Argoba, Abaala, Semurobi, Dallol and Kuneba woredas, is promising following the normal to above‐normal karma rains. In addition, ongoing emergency food distributions have contributed to stable household food access. Nevertheless, in the drought‐prone woredas of Kori, Bidu, Berahle, Elidaar, Hadelleala and Erebti, pasture and water availability is poor and is not expected to last until the next rainy season that starts in March. Severe flooding that occurred along the middle and lower courses of Awash River in August/September prevented access to the usual grazing grounds and damaged crops on irrigated fields in parts of Amibara, Awash Fentale, Buremudaitu, Gewane, Mile, Dubti, Ayssaita and Afambo woredas. Thus, pastoral communities that typically depend on these areas for grazing their livestock are expected to migrate to neighboring regions of Oromia and Amhara in search of pasture which could lead to conflicts.

Performance of the deyr/hageya rains to date is below average in the southern zones of Somali region (Figure 3). The rains have been relatively better in South Omo of SNNPR and lowlands of Bale, Borena and Gujii zones of Oromia Region. Increased internal livestock movement in search of better pasture and water has already been reported in parts of Gode, Korahe and Fik zones. Water shortages have been reported in Legehida, Salahad, Dihun, Gerbo, Segeg and Mayumuluk woredas of Fik zone, Aware, Gunagado and Dagahmadow woredas of Degehabur zone, Adadle and Denan woredas of Gode zone and Hargelle, Bare and West Imi woredas of Afder zone of Somali Region. Although most parts of Borena zone of Oromia Region received near normal Hagaya rains during the same period, rains were below average in Miyo, Arero and Dire woredas and availability of water and pasture is expected to deteriorate rapidly if the performance of the rains does not improve during the remainder of the season.

Prices of local and relief food remain low, except in areas where security related market access problems are ongoing and limited access and high transportation costs increase staple food prices (Korahe, Fik, parts of Dagehabur and Gode zones zones of Somali Region). Similarly, prices for imported food items such as rice and sugar continue to be high in southern Somali region due to the current inflation of Ethiopian Birr against the US dollar. For instance, the price of rice and sugar increased from 750 Birr and 880 Birr in October to 850 Birr and 930 Birr in November 2010 in Korahe zone. Significant and persistent increases in the prices of such food imports will eventually increase the number of middle and better off household’s switching to local food staples which in turn could drive increased prices for local staples and relief foods which are relied upon by poorer households.

Livestock prices also remain at the high level of September 2010 due to high external demand for livestock during the Hajj season (October to November) in all the concerned areas. Prices are expected to decline during the Jilaal (dry and hot) season as livestock body conditions deteriorate and external demand decreases. Food security will therefore deteriorate to highly food insecure particularly for the poor households beginning January with the start of the dry Jilaal season.

Seasonal calendar and critical events timeline

Source: FEWS NET

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 3