Sporadic Ethnic Violence Why Has Kenya Not Experienced a Full Blown Civil
Sporadic Ethnic Violence Why Has Kenya Not Experienced a Full-Blown Civil War? 5 MWANGI S. KIMENYI AND NJUGUNA S. NDUNG’U xtreme poverty and the collapse of law and order can become mutually reinforcing, producing a conflict trap (Blomberg et al. 2000; Elbadawi, ENdung’u, and Njuguna 2001). In Sub-Saharan Africa, many countries are caught in such a conflict trap and one out of every five people is directly affected by civil wars (Elbadawi et al. 2001). In Kenya, poverty levels almost doubled in the 1990s, a decade marred by ethnic violence, but the country has avoided the con- flict trap.This chapter analyzes civil conflict in Kenya and asks why the cycles of ethnic conflict have not escalated into a full-blown civil war. A civil war can be said to occur when a trigger factor, or a combination of fac- tors,results in what may be referred to as a “tipping point,”when factions in a soci- ety engage in an all-out armed conflict. Before that tipping point is reached, a country may be characterized by tensions but not by widespread conflict.For many countries, the triggers for a civil war are not strong enough to result in a tipping point;hence such countries are characterized by relative peace,although there may be tensions within the society among different factions. In a number of studies, Paul Collier and his colleagues have sought to explain the determinants of civil wars.They provide a systematic analysis of the causal factors of civil war initiation, duration, and recurrence.
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