1 Nuclear, MissileNuclear, Missile & Space Digest & Space Digest

Volume 12, Number 1 A Fortnightly Newsletter from the Indian Pugwash Society January 15, 2020

Convenor Contents A. India Amb. Sujan R. Chinoy  IAF Phase of Indo - Russian Tri- Services Exercise Indra 2019 in Pune, Gwalior, Babina and Goa  Year End Review: Department of Atomic Energy  Year End Review: Department of Space  A look at data breaches, cyberattacks India saw in 2019  Blow to NASA ISS mission: what happened?  RPV and core catcher shipped to Kudankulam 4  'Pokhran tests, Kargil War made India stronger': Amit Shah hails Vajpayee on birth anniversary Executive Council  Chandrayaan 2 to all-women spacewalk: Top 5 exciting space moments of 2019 Cdr. (Dr.) Probal K. Ghosh  ISRO planning to launch satellite Aditya to study sun: PM Modi Air Marshal S. G. Inamdar (Retd.) B. China Dr. Roshan Khanijo  US-China tech war's new battleground: undersea internet cables Amb. R. Rajagopalan  Report shows China publishes the most AI research papers, but they lack impact Dr. Rajesh Rajagopalan  Japan's defence chief hits out at Beijing on South China Sea, military build- Shri Dinesh Kumar up Yadvendra  BeiDou Navigation Satellite System completes deployment  China's supergun worries Pentagon watchers  Chinese rocket sends Ethiopia's 1st satellite into space  China's lunar rover Jade Rabbit-2 breaks record of working time on Moon  China's 10,000 ton-class destroyer equipped with long-range land-attack missiles  Stalled talks with U.S. not good for North Korea, South Korea tells China  Third Long March 5 mission to begin soon  Commercial space industry is soaring  Commercial suborbital carrier rocket launched in China  China to complete Beidou-3 satellite system in 2020  China exports Beidou system products to over 120 countries, regions

Indian Pugwash Society No.1, Development Enclave, Rao Tula Ram Marg, Near USI , Delhi-110010 Email: [email protected]

Tel. No (91-11) 2671-7983 Fax No. (91-11)2615-4192 2 Volume 12, Number 1 January 15, 2019

 Roaring rocket lifts satellite into space  China moves ahead with major science, technology sectors under 2030 goals

C. Pakistan  Pakistan Writes to UN, Says India Placed Missiles in Kashmir  USA-India nexus essentially anti-Pakistan  Cyber threats to Digital Pakistan

D. USA  U.S. Congress pressures Trump to renew Russia arms control pact  US regulator approves first SMR site licence  NRC seeks public comment on SMR regulation  In rare move, U.S. and Iranian envoys talk after U.N. meeting on nuclear deal  U.S. renews waiver on COSCO's Dalian tanker unit hit by Iran sanctions  U.S. envoy meets second senior China diplomat as North Korea tensions rise  USA, Japan need new nuclear, says US Commerce Secretary  US?builds a force for space wars of the future  Russia's Lavrov says Trump told Putin U.S. will continue looking for arms treaty solutions: Ifax  New aircraft to support US radiological emergency response  U.S. ready to deal with any North Korean 'Christmas gift': Trump  U.S. promises action on any North Korea missile test: White House

E. Europe  EU Overcomes Nuclear Divide to Reach Key Green-Finance Deal  New EU rules agreed on 'green' investments  Bulgaria's nuclear dreams move a step closer to reality  Wind and Solar Farms Are Putting European Nuclear Out of Work  Japan Working With Europe to Uphold Nuclear Agreement  China, EU Powers Agree to Help Save Iran Nuclear Deal  French push for Washington influence and their own 'very special relationship' draws UK suspicion  Iran blasts France for 'interference' over jailed academic  Russia warns EU over crumbling Iran nuclear deal

F. Russia  Russian Strategic Missile Forces to be fully equipped with modern systems by 2024  Russian Strategic Missile Forces to test-launch 6 ICBMs in 2020  Smolensk unit 3 gets licence extension  Russia to track Earth-Threatening asteroids from robot-inhabited nuclear-powered polar Moon base  Russia connects floating plant to grid  World's First Floating Nuclear Plant Goes Online in Russia - Rosatom  Russian heavy nuclear-powered missile cruiser to leave repair dock in 2020 3 Nuclear, Missile & Space Digest

 Russian latest nuclear-powered submarine gets new control system  Russia ready to include Avangard, Sarmat systems in New START after its extension - Lavrov  Last of four Kola units gets extended operation licence  Putin: Russia developing land-based version of Tsirkon hypersonic missile  Putin: advanced weaponry reaches 82% in Russia's nuclear triad  'Deadliest ever': Russia launches new 4th-gen nuclear-powered submarine  Rosatom plans accident-tolerant fuel loading  Russia to build five nuclear icebreakers by 2026  Russia Deploys Hypersonic Weapon, Potentially Renewing Arms Race  Russia, China to hold more U.N. talks on lifting North Korea sanctions: diplomats  Russia's Bilibino 2, Novovoronezh 4 get licence extensions  More nuclear energy for Turkey as Russia starts work on 2nd power unit for Akkuyu plant

West Asia G. Iran  Iran to U.S. Treasury: Sanctions are the war itself  Araghchi says Iran's dealings with INSTEX entering its final stage  EU chief diplomat: Iran has not violated JCPOA  Paris serious in salvaging Iran nuclear deal: envoy  No deal can survive if there is no balance between gives and takes, Araqchi says of JCPOA  Iran to continue reducing JCPOA commitments to create a balance: Shamkhani  Iran is testing new uranium enrichment centrifuges, President Hassan Rouhani says  Iran and US both undermining nuclear deal says UN political affairs chief  Iran president says country testing new advanced centrifuges  U.S. sanctions are 'collective punishment', Iranian diplomat says  In rare move, U.S. and Iranian envoys talk after U.N. meeting on nuclear deal  UN says US withdrawal from nuclear deal is 'source of regret'  Iran may not take fifth JCPOA step if INSTEX goes into effect: senior MP  'China, Europe support implementation of nuclear deal'  Iran installs Arak heavy water reactor's secondary circuit  Iran unveils development at Arak reactor in face of U.S. pressure  Nuclear deal is in trouble: British diplomat  Tel Aviv repeats allegations against Iran's peaceful nuclear and defense missile programs  Zarif says it is unlikely Europe to quit nuclear deal  Iran in worst days of sanctions: Rouhani H. Israel  Israel determined to target Iranian positions in Syria I. Turkey  Turkey is going nuclear by 2030: Part 2  Turkey, Israel gas cooperation lucrative for capitalizing on East Med resources  Turkey accuses US Congress of 'hostile' behaviour 4 Volume 12, Number 1 January 15, 2019

 Turkey solidified regional presence with East Med move  Highlights of Turkish energy market in 2019  Akkuyu NPP signs coolant equipment agreement with Russian, German firms  Second unit in Akkuyu nuke plant to begin construction in early 2020

East Asia J. Japan  Contractors want 70 billion yen more for safety at nuclear plant  Calls grow to preserve factory that survived atomic bombing  Severed section of JR Joban Line in Fukushima to reopen in March  Japan briefs Iran on plan to send forces to Middle East  Government proposes release of Fukushima water to sea or air  Japan's NHK delivers erroneous North Korean 'Christmas gift'

K. North Korea  Biegun may hold secret meeting with NK in Beijing: ex-unification minister  U.N. condemns North Korea rights abuses, Pyongyang rejects resolution  N. Korea establishes info website on science, technology  US watching North Korea for 'Christmas gift' missile launch  North Korea warns U.S. could 'pay dearly' for human rights criticism  NK leader presides over expanded Central Military Commission meeting of Workers' Party  North Korea threat looms as China, Japan, South Korea leaders meet  North Korea's Kim holds military meeting as tension rises under looming deadline  U.S., North Korea talks 'more important than anything', South Korea tells China  North Korea leaning toward China and Russia as it defies U.S.  New construction seen at missile-related site in North Korea  NK may consider timing of nuclear talks amid uncertainty in US politics: source  NK propaganda outlet denounces US surveillance operations  Kim Jong Un urges 'positive and offensive' security measures ahead of nuclear talks deadline  Kim Jong-un stresses 'aggressive measures' for security  Kim calls for 'diplomatic, military countermeasures' ahead of end-of-year deadline

L. South Korea  Biegun arrives in Seoul amid deadlock in NK-US nuclear talks  Biegun proposes meeting with North Korean counterparts  FOC assessment for OPCON transfer is most important task next year: defense minister  Prospects dim for US-N. Korea nuclear talks: ministry  Biegun wraps up trip to S. Korea with his call for NK dialogue unanswered  Seoul likely to send troops to Strait of Hormuz  Moon to hold summit with Xi next week amid stalled NK nuke talks  S. Korean firm shortlisted for Bulgarian nuclear plant project  Biegun suggests US remains open to talks with N. Korea 5 Nuclear, Missile & Space Digest

 N. Korea may launch 'maximum gray-zone' provocations for US concessions in 2020: expert  Unification minister proposes 'tentative deal' for NK nuclear impasse

M. Misc  IAEA approves four projects for Uzbekistan  Is a New Nuclear Age Upon Us?

N. Op-Ed India  Meet India's Fighter Jet Armed With Supersonic Nuclear Missiles  India's National Cybersecurity Policy Must Acknowledge Modern Realities Pakistan  Pakistan Cannot Get Enough Of America's F-16 Fighting Falcon USA  Talk With Iran Now. Time Is Fleeting.  Viewpoint: Only the atom, not fossil gas, can deliver robust climate action  Congress's Christmas gift to Trump: A new nuclear weapon  With China, the US must avoid a repeat of its disastrous war in Afghanistan Russia  Roscosmos plans 20 launches of Soyuz rocket in 2020  Russian scientists ready to design reusable space launch system in 8 years  Russia replaces orbital missile early warning system with new satellites  Look Out America: Russia's Hypersonic Avangard Nuclear Missile Is Going Live  U.S. Submarines Are Getting New W76-2 Tactical Nuclear Warheads (And It Might Be a Giant Mistake)  Russia to launch new Angara carrier rocket in 2020  Russian Navy to get carrier for nuclear super-torpedo Poseidon next year - manufacturer  How The U.S. Navy Remains The Masters Of Modular Nuclear Reactors  Russia's Meteor-M satellite hit by micrometeorite  Satellites delivered to orbit by Briz-KM upper stage - Russian Defense Ministry  America Is Driving The Return Of Russia's Nuclear "Dead Hand" West Asia Iran  From Nuclear to NewClear  Iran Newly Breaches Nuclear Deal Israel  Does Israel Have Nuclear Missile Submarines?  Can Israel combat Iran at the UN?  Middle East Disaster: Nuclear War Between Russia and Israel Is Possible Turkey  Turkey Threatens to Close Key U.S. Air Base That Houses Nuclear Bombs  CHP rules out sanctions, threats on Turkey-US ties 6 Volume 12, Number 1 January 15, 2019

East Asia North Korea  Chief of KPA General Staff urges US to watch its mouth  Diplomacy is best way  Wrong signal to North Korea  NHK's false alarm South Korea  Christmas gift - for whom?  Unhappy holidays  Fragile peace  'Pivot' to China  Shutdown of nuclear reactor

O. Think Tanks  Kudankulam: One Incident, Many Facets  Good news for climate change: India gets out of coal and into renewable energy  As the US, China, and Russia build new nuclear weapons systems, how will AI be built in?  AI-controlled nuclear weapons, smallpox labs, and nuclear disinformation: The best of 2019 in disruptive tech coverage  The six best nuclear risk stories of 2019  IAEA Highlights and Achievements in 2019 - a Year in Review  US-India space cooperation: Moving away from the burden of the past

P. Interviews/Reports  Iran's Nuclear Program: Status  Gorbachev: Don't give up hope for world without nuclear weapons 7 Nuclear, Missile & Space Digest

A. India  At present there are 22 reactors with installed capacity of 6780 MWe IAF Phase of Indo - Russian Tri- operating above 80% plant load factor Services Exercise Indra 2019 in in the country. Pune, Gwalior, Babina and Goa  Six Pressurised Heavy Water Reactors PIB Delhi, December 16, 2019 (PHWRs) of 700 MWe capacity each are at different stages of construction Exercise INDRA - 2019 is the second edition which would add 4200 MWe. of Joint Tri Services Exercise between Indian and Russian Armed Forces which is being  Four VVER reactors (KKNPP-3 to 6), conducted from 10-20 December each with 1000 MWe capacity are 2019 simultaneously at Pune and Gwalior under construction. for Air Force elements.  Nuclear Fuel Complex (NFC), has IAF is undertaking service specific and joint completed supply of 37 element fuel missions during the exercise. Russian bundles to Kakarapar Atomic Power Federation Air Force (RFAF) element is Plant (KAPP3), first 700MWe PHWR, participating in the exercise along with IAF towards initial core requirement by counterparts. establishing fabrication facility for 37 element fuel bundle manufacture. The broad theme for the exercise is to organise a Joint Task Force for undertaking https://pib.gov.in/newsite//erelease.aspx planning and execution of air operations for eliminating terrorists at the request of the third country under UN mandate. However, Year End Review: Department of combined missions between IAF and RFAF Space would also be undertaken for enriching PIB Delhi, December 30, 2019 experience and maximising training value in terms of interoperability. Following are the initiatives of Department of Space during the year 2019: https://pib.gov.in/newsite/ PrintRelease.aspx?relid=195922 Missions and Project Related Activities

Year End Review: Department of  ISRO has successfully accomplished 13missionsincluding06 launch vehicle Atomic Energy missions and07 satellite missions PIB Delhi, December 24, 2019 during the year 2019. The major policies and programmes by the  50 foreign satellites from 07countries Department of Atomic Energy (DAE) during were launched on commercial basis the year 2019 are given below: during this period.

i. Nuclear Power Programme:  PSLV-C44 successfully launched Microsat-R and Kalamsat-V2 on  Kaiga Atomic Power Station (KGS-1) has January 24, 2019 from Sriharikota. set the world record of 962 days of continuous operation.  On February 06, 2019GSAT 31 communication satellite was  Tarapur Atomic Power Station Units successfully launched from Kourou, (TAPS 1 &2), connected to the grid in French Guiana onboard Arianespace April and May 1969, have completed 50 rocket. years of safe operation. TAPS- 1&2 are currently the oldest operating power  EMISAT was successfully launched reactors in the world, producing reliable onboard PSLV-C45 on April 01, 2019 power at about two rupees per unit. from Sriharikota. The launch viewing 8 Volume 12, Number 1 January 15, 2019

gallery was inaugurated and opened to  The first-ever NavIC demonstration the public for viewing launches live from using the Snapdragon Mobile Sriharikota. Platforms was showcased by Qualcomm during the India Mobile  On May 22, 2019 RISAT-2B radar Congress at New Delhi on October 14- imaging earth observation satellite was 16, 2019 successfully launched onboard PSLV- C46 from Sriharikota.  A new center namely Human Space Flight Centre (HSFC) is created within  The successful launch of GSLV-MK III ISRO/DOS with the responsibility to M1, India’s most powerful launch act as the lead center for Human Space vehicle, was accomplished in July Flight Program, Gaganyaan.The 22,2019. This launch vehicle is capable Gaganyaan project has the objective of of launching 04 ton of satellites into demonstrating human space flight Geosynchronous Transfer Orbit (GTO). capability to Low Earth Orbit (LEO) The mission carried Chandrayaan-2 with 3 crew members for 5-7 days in Orbiterspacecraft to its intended orbit and to safely recover them after orbit.The instruments are continuously the mission. providing very useful science data.  Overall configuration of GSLV-MK III,  On November 27,2019 Cartosat-3, a crew escape system, crew module and third-generation agile advanced satellite service module for Gaganyaan have having high resolution imaging been finalized. An MoU is executed capabilitywas successfully launched by with Indian Air force for crew selection PSLV-C47 from Sriharikota. and training. Institute of Aerospace Medicine is identified for crew  On December 11,2019, PSLV-C48 selection and screening criteria. This successfully launched RISAT-2BR1radar process is in progress. imaging earth observation satellite from Sriharikota.  NewSpace India Limited (NSIL), Bengaluru, a wholly owned  India’s first inter-planetary mission Government of India Company under “Mars Orbiter Mission (MOM)” Department of Space, was completed five years in Martian orbit in incorporated on 6th March 2019. The September 2019. business activities of NSIL is mainly  Astrosat, the first Indian multi- driven towards enabling Indian wavelength space observatory, industries to productionise space completed four years in orbit in Sept systems and to exploit the commercial 2019. The data has been made open to opportunities emanating from the public. Astrosat has more than 900 Indian space programme. registered users from 24 countries.  Commissioning of the Second Vehicle  Global Standards body 3rd Generation Assembly Building at Sriharikota to Partnership Project (3GPP), which improve the frequency of launch. develops protocols for mobile telephony,  The notable development of the year has approved India’s regional navigation was technology transfer of Li-ion to system NAVIC. Indian industries.10 industries were  Qualcomm Technologies Inc. in selected for the transfer of the Li-ion collaboration with the Indian Space cell technology from ISRO. Research Organization (ISRO), has https://pib.gov.in/newsite//erelease.aspx developed & tested chipset platform across their portfolio which can support the Indian Regional Navigation satellite system, NavIC. 9 Nuclear, Missile & Space Digest

A look at data breaches, construction in India have been loaded on cyberattacks India saw in 2019 to a cargo ship in the port of Saint Petersburg, Russia. The shipment of Deccan Herald, December 16, 2019 equipment - 9000 cubic metres in total - is A CIO survey found that 69 per cent of the thirteenth for unit 4, Rosatom said, on Indian organisations are at risk of data a route spanning 15,000 kilometres. breaches. Data breaches cost Indian Units 3 and 4 are AES-92 design VVER- organisations an average of around Rs 12.8 1000 units under construction as the crore, from July 2018 to April 2019, as per second phase of the Kudankulam plant in an IBM report. India ranked 15th in terms Tamil Nadu. Kudankulam 1 and 2, both of ‘total cost of breach’, as mentioned in the VVER-1000 units, have been in operation 2019 Cost of a Data Breach Report. since 2014 and 2017, respectively. A third www.deccanherald.com/national/a-look-at-data- phase using the AES-92 design is also breaches-cyberattacks-india-saw-in-2019- planned. 785987.html “Despite the objective difficulties arising from the increased load at the port due to Blow to NASA ISS mission: what the approaching end of the year, we’ve happened? fulfilled our obligations to the customer Indian Express, December 21, 2019 and shipped the necessary equipment,” Rosatom’s first deputy director for projects A space capsule built to ferry astronauts to in India, Alexander Kvasha, said. Rosatom the International Space Station (ISS) has subsidiary and general contractor for the failed its first test flight, and will now return Kudankulam project, AtomStroyExport, to Earth without completing its mission. The announced earlier this month that the core capsule, named Starliner, has been built by catcher for unit 3 had been installed. A Boeing, and was successfully launched by core catcher - also referred to as a core melt NASA from Cape Canaveral, Florida, on localisation device, or core trap - is Friday morning (evening in India). designed to catch the molten core of a reactor in the unlikely event of a What went wrong? meltdown, preventing it from escaping the The United Launch Alliance (ULA) Atlas V containment building. rocket lifted off successfully, and Boeing’s http://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/RPV- CST-100 Starliner separated as expected. and-core-catcher-shipped-to-Kudankulam-4 Updates on the flight tracker on the NASA website said it was “flying on its own, ‘Pokhran tests, Kargil War made embarking on its inaugural flight to the International Space Station”. The rocket was India stronger’: Amit Shah hails supposed to fall in the Pacific Ocean near Vajpayee on birth anniversary Australia, while Starliner, “after a series of The New Indian Express, December 25, orbital adjustments”, was to be “on course 2019 for rendezvous and docking with the space station at 5 am on Saturday, December 21”. Home Minister Amit Shah on Wednesday paid tributes to former Prime Minister Atal https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/blow- Bihari Vajpayee on his 95th birth to-nasa-iss-mission-what-happened-6177521/ anniversary and said the Pokhran nuclear tests and Kargil War in the late 1990s RPV and core catcher shipped to created a strong image of India in the Kudankulam 4 world. “Former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee Ji left an indelible mark in Indian World Nuclear News, December 23, 2019 politics with his nationalistic thinking, The reactor pressure vessel and the core impeccable image and dedicated his life catcher for Kudankulam unit 4 under to the nation. In the life of Atal Ji, based 10 Volume 12, Number 1 January 15, 2019

on ideology and principles, there was no ISRO planning to launch satellite mere fascination of power. Under his Aditya to study sun: PM Modi leadership, the country saw good governance,” Shah tweeted in Hindi. India Today, December 29, 2019

https://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/2019/ Prime Minister Narendra Modi in his last dec/25/pokhran-tests-kargil-war-made-india- ‘Mann ki Baat’ programme of this year on stronger-amit-shah-hails-vajpayee-on-birth- Sunday said that the Indian Space anniversary-2080816.html Research Organisation (ISRO) is planning to launch a satellite called Aditya to study Chandrayaan 2 to all-women the sun. “India is quite advanced in the spacewalk: Top 5 exciting space field of astronomy, and we have taken path-breaking initiatives in this field. ISRO moments of 2019 has an astronomical satellite called India Today, December 28, 2019 ASTROSAT. Moreover, they are planning to launch a satellite called Aditya, to study From India’s Chandrayaan 2 mission to the the sun,” said Modi. first all-women spacewalk and commercial crew milestones by US-based companies, The Prime Minister further said that India 2019 offered several exciting moments for has many powerful telescopes around the space enthusiasts. India’s ambitious and country including a giant meter-wave keenly watched lunar mission, telescope near Pune and other powerful Chandrayaan 2, was expected to make its telescopes located in Kodaikkaanal, soft landing on the surface of the Moon on Udagamandala, Guru Shikhar and Hanle September 7. While the whole nation waited Ladakh. with bated breath, Chandrayaan 2’s lander ‘Vikram’ lost communication with the https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/isro- ground stations. But the Orbiter component planning-launch-satellite-aditya-study-sun- of Chandrayaan 2 spacecraft made it to the pm-modi-1632362-2019-12-29 Moon without any glitch. B. China In a huge milestone for China, which is attempting to position itself as a leading US-China tech war’s new space power, the country’s Chang’e-4 lunar battleground: undersea internet probe on January 3 became the first cables spacecraft to make a soft landing on the far Meaghan Tobin, South China Morning side of the Moon. The probe, comprising a Post, December 14, 2019 lander and a rover, touched down at the pre-selected landing area at 177.6 degrees In the contest between the US and China east longitude and 45.5 degrees south for dominance over the world’s technology latitude on the far side of the Moon. The infrastructure, the latest battle is taking programme Chang’e (named in honour of place under the Pacific Ocean. While the a goddess who, according to Chinese legend, US has been upping the pressure on its lives on the Moon) intends to send a manned allies not to include equipment made by mission to the Moon in the long term and Chinese telecom giants like Huawei and although no deadline has been set, some ZTE in their 5G systems, Chinese experts indicated it may be around 2036. companies have gained a foothold in some of the world’s most essential https://www.indiatoday.in/science/story/ communications infrastructure – undersea chandrayaan-2-to-all-women-spacewalk-top-5- internet cables. exciting-space-moments-of-2019-1632192-2019- 12-28 https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/ article/3042058/us-china-tech-wars-new- battleground-undersea-internet-cables 11 Nuclear, Missile & Space Digest

Report shows China publishes the BeiDou Navigation Satellite most AI research papers, but they System completes deployment lack impact Deng Xiaoci, Global Times, December 17, South China Morning Post, December 16, 2019 2019 China successfully sent the 52nd and 53rd China published more AI journal and satellites of its domestically developed conference papers in 2018 than Europe, BeiDou Navigation Satellite System (BDS) having passed the US in 2006. China into space on Monday. The pair are the narrowly edged out Europe, accounting for last two medium Earth orbit (MEO) 28% of publications compared with Europe’s satellites of their kind for the BDS-3 27%, according to Stanford University’s constellation, marking the completion of newly published Artificial Intelligence Index the global navigation system’s core Report 2019. However, China’s research has constellation deployment, according to about half the impact as US publications by officials on Monday. Launched from number of citations. The report offers other Xichang Satellite Launch Center, interesting tidbits about AI in China. In 2018, Southwest China’s Sichuan Province, on China had the highest volume of AI journal board a Long March-3B carrier rocket papers, with papers from government with a Yuanzheng-1 (Expedition-1) upper institutions accounting for three times more stage, the two satellites were injected into than those from companies. Europe’s designated orbits after more than three situation is similar, but corporate-affiliated hours’ flight. AI papers make up a higher proportion in http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/ the US. In all three regions, however, 1173712.shtml research papers overwhelmingly originated in academia. China’s supergun worries https://www.scmp.com/tech/article/3042264/ Pentagon watchers report-shows-china-publishes-most-ai-research- papers-they-lack-impact Dave Makichuk, Asia Times, December 17, 2019 Japan’s defence chief hits out at While the United States spent years Beijing on South China Sea, military dithering over the future of its much-hyped build-up electromagnetic railgun project, China appears to be moving closer to hitting its Julian Ryall, South China Morning Post, operational target, sources say. The December 16, 2019 Chinese navy plans to field its own Japan’s Defence Minister Taro Kono has secretive version of the electromagnetic criticised China for its actions in the railgun on naval vessels as early as 2025, contested South China Sea and waters close possibly sooner, according to a US to Japan, days before visiting Beijing to meet intelligence assessment first reported by his Chinese counterpart, Wei Fenghe. CNBC. China’s interpretation of the long- “China is engaging in unilateral and theoretical supergun, which utilizes a coercive attempts to alter the status quo massive amount of power to create based on its own assertions that are electromagnetic fields to accelerate incompatible with the existing international projectiles to hypersonic velocities, is order,” Kono on Sunday at the Doha reportedly capable of “striking a target 124 Forum, an international conference in Qatar. miles away at speeds of up to 1.6 miles per second,” according to CNBC — fast https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/east-asia/article/ enough to strike Philadelphia from New 3042306/japans-defence-chief-hits-out-beijing- York in just under a minute. south-china-sea-military https://www.asiatimes.com/2019/12/article/ chinas-supergun-worries-pentagon-watchers/ 12 Volume 12, Number 1 January 15, 2019

Chinese rocket sends Ethiopia’s 1st at 5:14 a.m. Saturday (Beijing time), and satellite into space the rover awoke at 6:43 p.m. Friday. Zhao Lei, China Daily, December 20, 2019 http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2019-12/21/ c_138648446.htm China has presented a space-based gift to Ethiopia – the African nation’s first satellite China’s 10,000 ton-class destroyer that was designed and built by Chinese engineers was launched by a Chinese rocket equipped with long-range land- on Friday. The Ethiopian Remote Sensing attack missiles Satellite-1, or ETRSS-1, was sent into space Liu Xuanzun, Global Times, December 22, by a Long March 4B carrier rocket from the 2019 Taiyuan Satellite Launch Center in North China’s Shanxi province. Carrying a China’s latest 10,000 ton-class guided multispectral wide-field imager and some missile destroyer, the Type 055, is capable other scientific devices, the 65-kilogram of launching long-range land-attack cruise spacecraft is expected to work at least two missiles, the People’s Liberation Army years at an altitude of around 600 kilometers (PLA) Navy revealed as experts said on to obtain multispectral remote-sensing data Sunday the new weapon could let the for Ethiopia’s agriculture, water resource destroyer launch more precise attacks survey, disaster prevention and relief, and against land targets at greater range. climate change research, according to the Introducing the vast and complicated China National Space Administration. arsenal at its disposal, the PLA Navy said on China’s Twitter-like social platform https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201912/20/ Sina Weibo that the service operates not WS5dfc5dbea310cf3e3557f874.html only vessels, but also submarine-launched intercontinental ballistic missiles with China’s lunar rover Jade Rabbit-2 strategic missile submarines and long- breaks record of working time on range land-attack cruise missiles with Moon 10,000 ton-class guided missile destroyer, despite them also being the main battle Xinhua, December 21, 2019 equipment of the PLA Rocket Force.

China’s Jade Rabbit-2, or Yutu-2, has China displayed its first Type 055 become the longest-working lunar rover on destroyer, the Nanchang, in April at the the moon, as it started to work for the 13th fleet review of the PLA Navy’s 70th lunar day on the far side of the moon. anniversary celebration in Qingdao, East Previously the record was held by Lunokhod China’s Shandong Province. As China’s 1, the Soviet robotic rover that became the first type of 10,000 ton-class destroyer, the world’s first to be sent to the moon in 1970, Type 055 has 112 vertical launch missile where it worked for about 10 months. cells capable of launching a combination China’s Chang’e-4 probe including a lander of surface-to-air missiles, anti-ship missiles and Jade Rabbit-2, launched on Dec. 8, 2018, and anti-submarine missiles, according to made the first-ever soft landing on the Von media reports. While military observers Karman Crater in the South Pole-Aitken have been speculating the ship was Basin on the far side of the moon on Jan. 3, capable of launching land-attack missiles, 2019. the Navy’s Weibo post confirmed the Both the lander and rover have resumed speculation. work for the 13th lunar day after laying https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/ dormant during the extremely cold night, 1174437.shtml according to the Lunar Exploration and Space Program Center of the China National Space Administration. The lander woke up 13 Nuclear, Missile & Space Digest

Stalled talks with U.S. not good for assembled and tested at the Wenchang North Korea, South Korea tells center during the past two months. China The administration said the rocket will Reuters, December 23, 2019 now undergo a functional examination and combined checks before being injected Stalled denuclearization talks and a recent with propellants. The strongest and most flare-up in tension between the United States technologically sophisticated rocket ever and North Korea are not beneficial for built by China, Long March 5 has a liftoff Pyongyang, South Korean President Moon weight of 869 metric tons, and a maximum Jae-in told Chinese President Xi Jinping in carrying capacity of 25 tons to a low-Earth Beijing on Monday. North Korea has set a orbit or 14 tons to a geosynchronous year-end deadline for the United States to transfer orbit. Its payload capacity is about change what it says is a policy of hostility 2.5 times bigger than any other Chinese amid a stalemate in efforts to make progress rocket. on their pledge to end the North’s nuclear program and establish lasting peace. https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201912/23/ WS5dfff6cda310cf3e3557fd6a.html North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and U.S. President Donald Trump have met three Commercial space industry is times since June 2018, but there has been no soaring substantive progress in dialogue while the North demanded crushing international Zhang Hongpei and Li Xuanmin, Global sanctions be lifted first. On Saturday, state Times, December 25, 2019 media said the United States would “pay China’s commercial space sector is dearly” for taking issue with the North’s growing rapidly and its development is human rights record and said Washington’s reaching a climax this year with domestic “malicious words” would only aggravate players making technology tensions on the Korean Peninsula. breakthroughs, executives and industry https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-japan- analysts told the Global Times on southkorea/stalled-talks-with-u-s-not-good-for- Wednesday. “For both players with state- north-korea-south-korea-tells-china- owned enterprise backgrounds or private- idUSKBN1YR01V invested, this year means harvesting the gains” of past efforts, said Huang Third Long March 5 mission to Zhicheng, an expert in the space industry. begin soon The overall atmosphere is very dynamic, Huang told the Global Times. Zhao Lei, China Daily, December 23, 2019 http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/ China will conduct the third mission of its 1174817.shtml largest and mightiest carrier rocket Commercial suborbital carrier ÿLong March 5 rocket launched in China ÿaround the end of this year, the China Xinhua, December 26, 2019 National Space Administration said. It said in a brief statement that the gigantic rocket A commercial suborbital carrier rocket was moved to its launchpad on Saturday developed by a private Chinese company morning at the Wenchang Space Launch was launched from the Jiuquan Satellite Center in the island province of Hainan. Launch Center in northwest China at 4:50 Two transport ships operated by the China p.m. Wednesday (Beijing Time). The Satellite Maritime Tracking and Control rocket, Tansuo-1, was developed by Space Department, Yuanwang 21 and Yuanwang Trek. It completed the whole maneuver 22, carried the rocket to Hainan in October flight and fairing separation at high from Tianjin, where it was built. It was dynamic pressure during the flight. 14 Volume 12, Number 1 January 15, 2019

The rocket can serve purposes of BDS has entered into a new era of global meteorological observation, microgravity service, benefiting ASEAN, South Asia, testing as well as satellite payload Eastern Europe, West Asia and Africa in experiments. It was the maiden flight of the precision farming, digital construction and first rocket developed by the company. The smart port construction, Ran told a press Chinese government encourages the conference. China has implemented participation of private enterprises in the international exchanges and cooperation space industry. The country had more than in the area of satellite navigation systems, 60 private companies in the commercial according to Ran. space industry as of December 2018. An intergovernmental cooperation http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2019-12/25/ agreement on satellite navigation between c_138657406.htm China and Russia has entered into force, and the China-Russia satellite navigation China to complete Beidou-3 satellite monitoring and assessment platform has system in 2020 been put into operation. China and the United States have deepened coordination Xinhua, December 27, 2019 of signal interoperability. China and EU have cooperated in frequency China will finish the construction of the coordination. China has continuously BeiDou-3 Navigation Satellite System (BDS- promoted its BDS’s compatibility with 3), with another two geostationary orbit other navigation systems to benefit global satellites to be launched before June 2020, users, Ran said. said BDS Spokesperson Ran Chengqi on Friday. Friday marks the one year http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2019-12/27/ anniversary of China’s BDS-3 system c_138661870.htm providing global service. Ran said at a press conference of the State Council Information Roaring rocket lifts satellite into Office that with the BDS as the core, a more space ubiquitous, integrated and intelligent navigation and timing system with Zhao Lei, China Daily, December 28, 2019 comprehensive national positioning is China’s biggest and most powerful carrier scheduled to be established by 2035. rocket, the Long March 5, kicked off its China sent 10 BDS satellites into space in latest space mission on Friday night in 2019. The deployment of the core BDS-3 Hainan province. It was carrying the constellation system has been completed largest satellite ever built domestically. As with all of the BDS-3 system’s medium earth the launch sequence of the Long March 5- orbit satellites being networked. With the Y3 rocket started at 8: 45 pm, 10 engines system’s upgraded intelligent operation and ÿat the bottom of the first core stage, plus maintenance capabilities, the four boosters http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2019-12/27/ c_138661493.htm ÿgenerated a tremendous combined thrust of more than 1,000 metric tons to lift the China exports Beidou system gigantic craft from its launchpad at the Wenchang Space Launch Center in the products to over 120 countries, island province. The 57-meter-long rocket, regions the tallest, strongest and most Xinhua, December 27, 2019 technologically sophisticated in China’s launch vehicle family, then thundered up China has exported its Beidou Navigation into the cloudy night sky with a blinding Satellite System (BDS) basic products to white flash. more than 120 countries and regions, said BDS spokesperson Ran Chengqi Friday. The It follows the Shijian 18, which was lost 15 Nuclear, Missile & Space Digest

in the failed second flight of a Long March C. Pakistan 5. In addition to transporting the satellite to space, the flight is intended to verify the Pakistan Writes to UN, Says India engineering adjustments that were made to Placed Missiles in Kashmir improve the rocket’s overall design, as well New York Times, December 19, 2019 as key technologies to be used in a journey to the moon with the Chang’e 5 probe, Pakistan’s foreign minister said Thursday according to the China National Space he has written to the United Nations to Administration. Another task of Friday’s warn the world body of what he says are mission is to verify several key satellite actions by New Delhi to position missile technologies. The successful launch sparked launchers in the Indian-controlled a wave of public cheers and celebrations, Kashmir. along with those from within Chinese space circles. In the letter Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi said he wrote earlier https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201912/28/ this month he said he fears India plans to WS5e06c220a310cf3e35581368.html launch an attack on Pakistan to divert international attention from human rights China moves ahead with major violations in Kashmir. The minister did not science, technology sectors under offer evidence to support his claim of 2030 goals missiles being placed in the disputed Himalayan region. There was no Global Times, December 29, 2019 immediate comment from India.

China is moving into the second round of https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2019/12/19/ major national science and technology world/asia/ap-as-pakistan-india-kashmir.html projects aiming for 2030, a former government official said on Saturday. At the USA-India nexus essentially anti- fifth China’s Manufacturing Power Forum Pakistan on Saturday, Li Yizhong, former minister of industry and information technology, who Malik Muhammad Ashraf, The Nation, is also chairman of the China Federation of December 24, 2019 Industrial Economics, said that the government has been formulating the A few days ago, US Secretary of State medium- and long-term plans for major Michael Pompeo and Secretary of Defence scientific and technological infrastructure Mark Esper held bilateral talks with their projects for 2030, including quantum Indian counterparts, dubbed as two-plus- communications and artificial intelligence two ministerial dialogue. and in the joint sectors. China approved the project, called statement issued at the end of the parleys the National Medium- and Long-term Plan while reaffirming the growing strategic for Scientific and Technological partnership and working in support of a Development (2006-2020) in 2006. free, open and inclusive Indo-pacific According to Li, the 2006-2020 program has region, unwarrantedly asserted that the had great success with all 17 projects Pakistani territory was being used by the achieving major breakthroughs, of which terrorists. The statements also asked nuclear power technology and high-speed Pakistan to take immediate and irreversible railways have become the national cards. action against these networks and prevent its territory from being used in this manner. http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/ 1175168.shtml The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Pakistan, reacting to this indiscreet assertion, rightly rejected the statement, terming it as anti- Pakistan. The reality is that the USA-India 16 Volume 12, Number 1 January 15, 2019

nexus is not only designed to promote the This dependency of nation-states on the objective of the Contain-China policy, but internet has urged the attention of a is also essentially anti-Pakistan. The USA number of state and non-state actors to and its allies, blinded by their strategic and intervene and exploit the vulnerabilities in commercial interests, are showing criminal cyberspace. As cyberspace has become the indifference to the state terrorism by India new place for terrorists and criminals for in Indian-Occupied Kashmir and the the glorification of their acts such as ruthless killing spree in the Valley at the recruitment of fellow terrorists, motivating hands of the Indian security forces and the others using several platforms, providing Indian action to end the special status of the tools for communications and trainings of state which effectively nullifies the UN the potential recruits and broadcasting of resolutions on the Kashmir dispute. illegal and violent content all in real life with anonymity in a much cheaper way. They have also kept mum on the export of terrorism to Pakistan by India through the Knowing the fact that there is a dark side likes of Kulbhushan Jadhav, whose of surfing the internet where criminals, confessional statement and later conviction terrorists, pedophiles and hackers can by the military court present irrefutable carry out their activities illegally. These evidence of Indian involvement. The activities are carried out in Dark Web, conscience of the so-called champions of Dark Net or Deep Web where data and humanitarian causes and principles information are password locked and enshrined in the UN Charter and the where the user is required a special Universal Human Rights Declaration does software (TOR in most cases) to operate not seem to have been stirred either by what and where the data is trapped behind pay is happening in Indian-Occupied Kashmir walls. Taking the advantage of their nor by the recent anti-Muslim legislation anonymity, individuals and groups can enacted by the Modi government which has use cyberspace to threaten and harass provoked a country-wide protest movement. citizens, specific groups, communities and They have not gone beyond mild rebuke and even countries as well. The growing use concern over what is happening. of cyberspace for such illegal and criminal activities has already warned states to look https://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2019/12/24/ in to the matter with serious usa-india-nexus-essentially-anti-pakistan/ concentration. Cyber threats to Digital Pakistan https://nation.com.pk/31-Dec-2019/cyber- threats-to-digital-pakistan Mubeen Ashraf, The Nation, December 31, 2019 D. USA Heavy reliance on computers and the internet has altered the life of a common U.S. Congress pressures Trump to man in a number of ways. It is perceived renew Russia arms control pact that the world which is apparently so large Arshad Mohammed, Jonathan Landay, has dwindled to a number of devices and Reuters, December 18, 2019 gadgets. The use of technology is a common practice as from communicating through e- U.S. lawmakers of both parties are mail to carrying out transactions pressuring the White House to extend the electronically, going to places for study to e- last remaining restraints on U.S. and learning and flourishing businesses through Russian nuclear weapons deployments by e-business, everything comes under one demanding intelligence assessments on thing. And for now, even governments, the costs of allowing the New START militaries, and national security treaty to lapse. The demands, contained organisations are dependent on computer in three bills that may be harmonized this networks. week, reflect doubts about whether the Trump administration has done sufficient 17 Nuclear, Missile & Space Digest

analytical work on how China and Russia National Laboratory. The proposed site may respond to the 2010 treaty’s expiration hosted the former Clinch River Breeder in February 2021. Reactor Project. The NRC accepted the application for regulatory review in New START restricted the United States and December of that year. It was the first Russia to deploying no more than 1,550 SMR-related application of any type to be nuclear warheads, the lowest level in received by the NRC. The regulator decades, and limited the land- and published a final environmental impact submarine-based missiles and bombers that statement for the permit in April this year, deliver them. It can be renewed for up to followed in June by its final safety five years if both sides agree. Moscow has evaluation report on TVA’s application. offered to immediately extend the treaty. Washington still is considering the issue. http://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/US- U.S. President Donald Trump and his aides regulator-approves-first-SMR-site-licence have argued that New START does not cover all Russian nuclear weapons and said NRC seeks public comment on they want to bring China, which they SMR regulation increasingly view as the primary, long-term threat, into a wider arms control framework. World Nuclear News, December 19, 2019

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-russia- The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission nuclear/u-s-congress-pressures-trump-to-renew- (NRC) is seeking public comment on russia-arms-control-pact-idUSKBN1YL2LY proposals to apply risk-based emergency preparedness requirements to small US regulator approves first SMR modular reactors (SMRs) and other new technologies. The proposed rule would site licence include a scalable approach for World Nuclear News, December 18, 2019 determining the size of the emergency planning zone around such facilities. The The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission NRC’s emergency preparedness (NRC) has authorised the issuance of an programme for nuclear power plants has early site permit (ESP) to Tennessee Valley up to now focused on large, light-water Authority (TVA) for the potential reactors. The proposed rule, together with construction of small modular reactors at its a draft regulatory guide, considers Clinch River site near Oak Ridge, Tennessee. advances in facility design and safety TVA has yet to decide whether to actually research and their application to future construct such reactors at the site and, if so, operation of SMRs and other future what technology it would use. An ESP technologies including non-light water certifies that a site is suitable for the reactors and certain non-power construction of a nuclear power plant from production facilities, the regulator said. the point of view of site safety, environmental impact and emergency “The alternative requirements and planning, but does not specify the choice of implementing guidance would adopt a technology. The permit is valid for 10 to 20 risk-informed, performance-based, and years, renewable for an additional 10 to 20 technology-inclusive approach. The years. alternative requirements would include a scalable approach for determining the size TVA submitted its 8000-page ESP of the emergency planning zone around application for the Clinch River site to the each facility, based on the distance at NRC in May 2016. The application was for which possible radiation doses could two or more small modular reactor (SMR) require protective actions,” the NRC said. modules of up to a combined capacity of 800 MWe at the 935 acre (378 hectare) site near http://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/NRC- the Department of Energy’s Oak Ridge seeks-public-comment-on-SMR-regulation 18 Volume 12, Number 1 January 15, 2019

In rare move, U.S. and Iranian The Trump administration reimposed envoys talk after U.N. meeting on sanctions on Iran’s oil exports last year nuclear deal after unilaterally withdrawing from a 2015 deal on Iran’s nuclear program that Michelle Nichols, Reuters, December 20, the United States agreed with Tehran and 2019 other world powers. The Trump administr-he Treasury Department Since Washington pulled out of the Iran slapped sanctions in late September on nuclear deal in May 2018, tensions between four Chinese shipping companies, the United States and Tehran have risen. But including COSCO’s Dalian tanker unit. after a contentious U.N. Security Council meeting on compliance with the 2015 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran- accord between world powers and Iran, nuclear-usa-cosco/u-s-renews-waiver-on-coscos- Ambassador Kelly Craft walked over to talk dalian-tanker-unit-hit-by-iran-sanctions- to Iran’s U.N. Ambassador Majid Takht idUSKBN1YN2RG Ravanchi. Ravanchi had spoken about a two-year old girl during his statement to the U.S. envoy meets second senior 15-member council. He said the girl had died China diplomat as North Korea in June from a rare disease known as EB and tensions rise blamed the death on U.S. sanctions. Reuters, December 20, 2019 An official from the U.S. mission to the United Nations said Craft was expressing Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Le Yucheng her condolences to Ravanchi. Iran’s U.N. met U.S. special envoy for North Korea mission spokesman Alireza Miryousefi said Stephen Biegun on Friday, China’s foreign they “merely had a short conversation on ministry said, Biegun’s second high-level EB patients affected by sanctions”. “It is not meeting in Beijing in two days amid out of the ordinary for U.N. diplomats growing tension on the Korean peninsula. accredited to the U.N. to run into each other, North Korea has conducted a series of or to have brief encounters, at HQ,” weapons tests in recent weeks and some Miryousefi tweeted. experts say the reclusive state may be preparing for an intercontinental ballistic https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-usa-un/ missile test soon. Such a test would mark in-rare-move-u-s-and-iranian-envoys-talk-after-u- a break from the detente reached with the n-meeting-on-nuclear-deal-idUSKBN1YO074 United States last year, dash any hopes of resuming talks on ending North Korea’s U.S. renews waiver on COSCO’s nuclear and missile programmes and put Dalian tanker unit hit by Iran the two countries back on a path of sanctions confrontation. Reuters, December 20, 2019 Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang, who disclosed the meeting of Le The Trump administration on Thursday and Biegun during a daily briefing, did not renewed a waiver for companies to wind elaborate on what was discussed. He down transactions with the Dalian unit of reiterated that China urges the United a Chinese tanker company on which it had States and North Korea to resume imposed sanctions in September for dialogue and meet each other halfway. allegedly transporting Iranian oil. The waiver, good until Feb. 4, 2020, allows https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-northkorea- activities and transactions “ordinarily usa-china-mofa/us-envoy-meets-second-senior- incident and necessary to the maintenance china-diplomat-as-north-korea-tensions-rise- or wind down of transactions” including idUKKBN1YO0O9 offloading of non-Iranian crude oil involving COSCO’s Dalian Shipping Tanker Co, the U.S. Treasury Department said in a release. 19 Nuclear, Missile & Space Digest

USA, Japan need new nuclear, says 16,000 personnel. It will be charged with US Commerce Secretary protecting America’s navigation and communications satellites from being World Nuclear News, December 20, 2019 jammed, blinded and disabled by adversaries, which also include Iran and Japan and the USA both need new nuclear North Korea. generating capability to replace ageing and inefficient generating capacity and could “Space is the world’s newest warfighting work together to achieve this, US Commerce domain,” Trump said in an address to Secretary Wilbur Ross told a bilateral troops at airfield before signing the meeting yesterday. Japan would benefit National Defence Appropriation Act greatly by having a fleet of new, inherently (NDAA) 2020 into law. “Among the grave safe reactors, he said. In his speech at threats to our national security, American the 12th Annual US-Japan Roundtable superiority in space is absolutely vital. And Conference held in Washington DC on 18 we’re leading, but we’re not leading by December, Ross called for a “technological enough, and very shortly we’ll be leading revival” of the nuclear power industry. by a lot.” “The Space Force will help us deter aggression and control the ultimate “Nuclear is and must remain an essential part of our energy mix long into the future. high ground,” he added. To make that happen, the United States is https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/ working with allies like Japan to assure the us-builds-a-force-for-space-wars-of-the-future/ efficient licensing and construction of a new story-JXrDLhKOeTKhSMnbptfQpK.html generation of inherently safe and economically viable reactors,” he said. Ross Russia’s Lavrov says Trump told cited the US administration’s support and commitment to revitalising the nuclear Putin U.S. will continue looking industry, highlighting the signature into law for arms treaty solutions: Ifax of the Nuclear Energy Innovation and Reuters, December 22, 2019 Modernisation Act, and the Nuclear Energy Innovation Capabilities Act, which he said Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov were the first two nuclear-specific pieces of said on Sunday that U.S. President Donald legislation signed into US law since the Trump had sent a short letter about the Atomic Energy Act of 1954. He also spoke Intermediate Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty of collaboration and cooperation at both to Russian President Vladimir Putin, the federal and corporate levels between Japan Interfax news agency reported. “U.S. and the USA to promote civil nuclear power President Donald Trump sent a short letter development. in which he said that they are ready to continue looking for ways to overcome the http://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Ross-US- problems in our relations,” Interfax cited Japan-need-new-nuclear the minister as saying on a TV talk show.

US builds a force for space wars of The letter was in response to Putin’s offer the future to introduce a moratorium on the development of missiles banned by the Yashwant Raj, Hindustan Times, December Intermediate Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty, 22, 2019 Interfax cited Lavrov as saying. The U.S. formally left the INF treaty with Russia in The United States officially launched the August after determining that Moscow Space Force on Friday with President was violating the treaty and had already Donald Trump signing into law the 2020 deployed one banned type of missile, an defence budget that will fund the newest accusation the Kremlin denies. and the sixth branch of US military, to counter increasing threats chiefly from https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-usa- Russia and China to American assets in missiles-treaty/russias-lavrov-says-trump-told- space. The US Space Force has been assigned putin-u-s-will-continue-looking-for-arms- a $40 billion budget and will be staffed with treaty-solutions-ifax-idUSKBN1YQ0AY 20 Volume 12, Number 1 January 15, 2019

New aircraft to support US would “deal with it very successfully,” radiological emergency response amid U.S. concerns that Pyongyang might be preparing a long-range missile test. World Nuclear News, December 23, 2019 China, North Korea’s most important The US Department of Energy National backer, meanwhile, urged Washington to Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) take “concrete steps” as soon as possible has unveiled three new nuclear incident to implement agreements reached during response aircraft. The King Air 350ER last year’s summit between Trump and aircraft are equipped with specialised North Korea leader Kim Jong Un in radiation detection systems and will be used Singapore. to conduct measurements of air and ground Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, in contamination following a nuclear or comments relayed on Twitter by the radiological accident or incident, as well as foreign ministry in Beijing, called on North conducting baseline surveys for normal Korea and the United States to work out levels of radiation in the environment in “a feasible roadmap for establishing a preparation for major public events. permanent peace regime & realizing The aircraft will be used by teams from complete denuclearization on the (Korean) NNSA’s Aerial Measuring System (AMS), Peninsula.” which is based out of Nellis Air Force Base in https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea- Las Vegas, Nevada, and Joint Base Andrews, missiles-usa/u-s-ready-to-deal-with-any-north- near Washington, DC. The AMS mission is korean-christmas-gift-trump-idUSKBN1YS13A to provide a rapid survey of radiation and contamination following a radiological U.S. promises action on any North emergency. It does this by using fixed-wing Korea missile test: White House aircraft to collect information and determine the location of ground contamination, then Doina Chiacu, Reuters, December 29, 2019 using helicopters to perform detailed surveys of ground contamination. The United States would be very disappointed if North Korea tested a long- NNSA Administrator Lisa Gordon-Hagerty range or nuclear missile and would take said AMS is a “premier example” of the appropriate action as a leading military organisation’s dual public safety and and economic power, White House national security mission. “AMS aircraft national security adviser Robert O’Brien frequently support security preparations for said on Sunday. high-profile events such as presidential inaugurations, the Super Bowl, Boston Washington has many “tools in its tool kit” Marathon, and other major public events. to respond to any such test, O’Brien said Although these deployments are not well- in an interview with ABC’s “This Week.” known to the public, they’re part of a critical “We’ll reserve judgment but the United apparatus working behind the scenes to keep States will take action as we do in these the American people safe,” she said. situations,” he said. “If Kim Jong Un takes that approach we’ll be extraordinarily http://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/New- disappointed and we’ll demonstrate that aircraft-to-support-US-radiological-emergency disappointment.” North Korea has asked Washington to offer a new initiative to iron U.S. ready to deal with any North out differences over Pyongyang’s nuclear Korean ‘Christmas gift’: Trump weapons program. It warned Washington this month that failure to meet its Alexandra Alper, Reuters, December 24, expectations could result in an unwanted 2019 “Christmas gift.” U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea- brushed off North Korea’s warning of a missiles-usa/u-s-will-take-action-if-north-korea- “Christmas gift,” saying the United States tests-missiles-white-house-idUSKBN1YX0CM 21 Nuclear, Missile & Space Digest

E. Europe transition to a low-carbon, resource- efficient economy. EU Overcomes Nuclear Divide to Reach Key Green-Finance Deal http://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/New- EU-rules-agreed-on-green-investments Alexander Weber, Bloomberg, December 17, 2019 Bulgaria’s nuclear dreams move a The European Union agreed on a landmark step closer to reality green-finance regulation, advancing the Emerging Europe, December 20, 2019 bloc’s push to embed environmental goals in standards for banks, money managers Bulgaria has shortlisted General Electric and insurers. EU lawmakers approved an (GE) and four other international accord on the list of sustainable activities late companies as candidates for a contract to Monday, following agreement by the bloc’s build a new nuclear power plant in the member states earlier in the day. country. Energy Minister Temenuzhka Policymakers had to overcome last-minute Petkova said on December 19 that along divisions over the kinds of technologies that with GE, France’s Framatome, Russia’s should be eligible to be classified as green, Rosatom, China’s CNNC and Korea with nuclear-energy proponents, including Hydro and Nuclear Power Company will France, seeking revisions to an earlier version also be invited to file binding offers to build of the proposed rules. the 10 billion-euro project. Offers need to be submitted by the end of April 2020. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019- 12-16/green-finance-deal-reached-by-eu-states-on- https://emerging-europe.com/news/bulgarias- nuclear-compromise nuclear-dreams-move-a-step-closer-to-reality/

New EU rules agreed on ‘green’ Wind and Solar Farms Are Putting investments European Nuclear Out of Work World Nuclear News, December 18, 2019 Lars Paulsson and William Wilkes, Bloomberg, December 20 2019 A compromise agreement on criteria to be used to determine whether an economic Two nuclear reactors that have served activity is environmentally sustainable has homes and factories in Sweden and been reached by the European Parliament, Germany for many decades will produce European Commission and the European their last electricity by the end of this Council. The so-called ‘taxonomy month. The permanent halt of Vattenfall regulation’ does not explicitly exclude AB’s 44-year-old Ringhals-2 reactor is yet nuclear energy. The European Commission another sign of how the surge in launched its Action Plan on Financing renewable energy has upended traditional Sustainable Growth in March 2018, and energy economics. The Nordic region’s adopted a package of measures two months biggest utility made the decision not to later. Then, in July, a Technical Experts invest to keep the facility going because of Group (TEG) on sustainable finance set up the unit’s struggle to break even as power by the Commission began assisting it in from wind and solar farms flood the developing a unified classification system for European grids and increasingly crowd sustainable economic activities. The TEG out traditional power sources. published its Taxonomy Technical Report in June this year. Nuclear energy was excluded In Southern Germany’s advanced from the list of sustainable economic manufacturing heartland, Energie Baden activities. However, in September the Wuertenberg AG is preparing to close European Council decided to remain Philippsburg-2, one of the nation’s biggest technology neutral in its strategy on reactors, which has helped power the car financing sustainable growth and the industry’s megaplants since mid-1980s. 22 Volume 12, Number 1 January 15, 2019

While its fate was sealed by Chancellor as well as the other signatories’ inability Angela Merkel in the aftermath of the to make up for the American pressure. Fukushima nuclear disaster, it probably wouldn’t be closing without the nation’s https://financialtribune.com/articles/national/ unprecedented supply of wind and solar 101315/china-eu-powers-agree-to-help-save- power. iran-nuclear-deal

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019- French push for Washington 12-20/nuclear-reactors-retiring-in-europe-as- influence and their own ‘very renewables-generate-more special relationship’ draws UK suspicion Japan Working With Europe to Uphold Nuclear Agreement Andrew Harrer, Bloomberg, December 29, 2019 Financial Tribune, December 20, 2019 Emmanuel Macron made an early effort Rouhani said Iran appreciates any effort by to win over Donald Trump, with UK other countries to help preserve the nuclear officials discussing ways to counter deal and guarantee peace and stability in France’s diplomatic drive. British officials the region and the world. Japan Working have grown concerned by France’s With Europe to Uphold Nuclear attempt to boost its military clout in AgreementJapan Working With Europe to Washington and are taking steps to ensure Uphold Nuclear Agreement. Japanese Prime the UK remains America’s top defence Minister Shinzo Abe reiterated his support partner, The Daily Telegraph has learned. for Iran’s 2015 nuclear agreement with six Eyebrows have been raised by what is seen world powers, saying Tokyo has initiated as a concerted French push to portray cooperation with the three European themselves as America’s “oldest ally” and signatories to help salvage the fraying deal. tout their own “very special relationship” He made the statement in a meeting with with the US. At least one sensitive memo President Hassan Rouhani in Tokyo on has been circulated among British officials Friday, President.ir reported. in recent years warning that France is attempting to gain advantage from the https://financialtribune.com/articles/national/ 101310/japan-working-with-europe-to-uphold- change in circumstances that comes with nuclear-agreement Brexit. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/12/29/ China, EU Powers Agree to Help french-push-washington-influence-special- Save Iran Nuclear Deal relationship-draws/ Financial Tribune, December 21, 2019 Iran blasts France for China and the three European signatories ‘interference’ over jailed to the 2015 nuclear deal have agreed to academic enhance cooperation to ensure the implementation of the fraying agreement, The Telegraph, December 29, 2019 according to a top Chinese diplomat. Franco-Iranian academic Adelkhah Political directors from France, Germany Fariba, 60, a well-known expert on Iran and Britain visited China and met their and Shiite Islam. Tehran accused Paris on Chinese counterpart on Friday to exchange Sunday of “interference” in the case of an views on the Iranian nuclear issue. Iran has Iranian-French academic held in the been stepping away from its obligations Islamic republic, saying she is considered under the nuclear deal, formally known as an Iranian national and faces security the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, in charges. France said on Friday it response to the United States’ unilateral summoned Iran’s ambassador to protest withdrawal and reimposition of sanctions 23 Nuclear, Missile & Space Digest

the imprisonment of Fariba Adelkhah and F. Russia another academic, Roland Marchal of France, saying their detention was Russian Strategic Missile Forces “intolerable”. Their imprisonment has to be fully equipped with modern added to distrust between Tehran and Paris systems by 2024 at a time when French President Emmanuel Macron is seeking to play a leading role in TASS News Agency, December 16, 2019 defusing tensions between Iran and its arch- The share of modern missile systems in the foe the United States. Russian Strategic Missile Forces (RVSN) will reach 100% by 2024, RSVN “The statement by France’s foreign ministry Commander Colonel-General Sergey regarding an Iranian national is an act of Karakaev told the Krasnaya Zvezda (Red interference and we see their request to have Star) newspaper. “By 2024, the share of no legal basis,” Iran’s foreign ministry modern missile systems will reach 100%, spokesman Abbas Mousavi said in a meaning that the Strategic Missile Forces statement. will cross the line after which they will no https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/12/29/ longer have any obsolete Soviet-produced iran-blasts-france-interference-jailed-academic/ missile systems,” Karakaev said. He added that RSVN currently have seven Russia warns EU over crumbling types of missile systems. “Among them are Iran nuclear deal four stationary-based systems: Voevoda, Euronews, December 31, 2019 Stilet, Topol-M and Yars. The mobile group of missile systems includes Topol, Iran’s nuclear deal with world powers is in Topol-M and Yars,” he explained. “In the danger of “falling apart” without the nearest future, it is planned to gradually compliance of the United States and the equip all rocket units with new missile European Union, Russia’s foreign minister systems Yars, Avangard and Sarmat,” warned Monday after meeting with his Karakaev noted. Iranian counterpart in Moscow. The 2015 deal between Iran and Britain, China, https://tass.com/defense/1099597 France, Germany, Russia and the United States lifted sanctions on Iran in exchange Russian Strategic Missile Forces for limits on its nuclear program. The U.S. to test-launch 6 ICBMs in 2020 withdrew from the accord last year and imposed crippling economic sanctions that TASS News Agency, December 16, 2019 block Iran from selling crude oil abroad. The Russian Strategic Missile Forces “Because of the destructive line that (RVSN) plan to test-launch six Washington keeps towing, this important intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) achievement of international diplomacy... is in 2020, RVSN Commander Colonel- in danger of falling apart,” Russian Foreign General Sergey Karakaev told the Minister Sergei Lavrov said, adding that Krasnaya Zvezda (Red Star) newspaper. “colleagues from the European Union” were “Six test-launches of ICBMs are planned not fully complying with the agreement for 2020, including five from the Plesetsk either. cosmodrome,” Karakaev said. He reminded that in 2019, the RVSN carried https://www.euronews.com/2019/12/30/russia- out five test-launches of strategic missiles, warns-eu-over-crumbling-iran-nuclear-deal including three from the Plesetsk cosmodrome and two from the Kapustin Yar training range.

https://tass.com/defense/1099591 24 Volume 12, Number 1 January 15, 2019

Smolensk unit 3 gets licence space agency’s to-do list for the not-so- extension distant future. Roscosmos is currently working on a comprehensive plan that the World Nuclear News, December 17, 2019 Russian government wants to see before Russian regulator Rostechnadzor has issued allocating any money for it. Part of a a 15-year operating licence extension for permanent Russian base envisioned on the unit 3 of the Smolensk nuclear power plant, Moon will be given to an observatory that the last of three RBMK-1000 reactors at the will serve as part of a ”global system for site in western Russia. The move means the tracking asteroid and comet threats,” a whole plant has permission to operate for a senior Roscosmos official said in a recent total of 45 years. The Smolensk plant covers interview. 75% of electricity supply to the region and “The location selected for the base is 13% of all of the country’s nuclear power southern pole of the moon. It has favorable generation. Life-extending modernisation relief and conditions: enough light for solar work at unit 3 was completed in March, panels, constantly shadowed craters with when the other two units were already set ice reserves for fuel and raw for an extended period of operation of 15 material,” Aleksandr Bloshenko years. explained.

Rosenergoatom, the operator subsidiary of https://www.rt.com/russia/476082-russia- Russian state nuclear corporation Rosatom, moon-base-asteroids/ said the upgrade work had included “a whole range of scientific, technical and Russia connects floating plant to engineering activities”. Pavel Lubensky, director of the plant added: “The control grid systems of power unit No.3 have undergone World Nuclear News, December 19, 2019 almost complete updating and technical re- equipment. We carried out complete The floating nuclear power plant modernisation, performing thousands of Akademik Lomonosov was today complex operations with the mass connected to the grid, generating replacement of equipment, the introduction electricity for the first time in the remote of new-generation security systems and Chaun-Bilibino network in Pevek, in much more. Over 2000 kilometres of cable Russia’s Far East. The achievement was laid and more than 2000 sets of followed Russian regulator equipment were installed. All the planned Rostekhnadzor’s provision of an operating work has been completed efficiently and in licence, as well as permission to connect full.” to the northern electricity grid maintained by Chukotenergo JSC. Connecting the http://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Smolensk- plant to Pevek’s heat networks will be unit-3-gets-licence-extension completed next year. Akademik Lomonosov is a pilot project and a Russia to track Earth-Threatening ‘working prototype’ for a future fleet of asteroids from robot-inhabited floating nuclear power plants and on- nuclear-powered polar Moon base shore installations based on Russian-made small modular reactors (SMRs). Russian Times, December 17, 2019 These units will be available for deployment to hard-to-reach areas of Moon’s southern pole will be a good spot Russia’s North and Far-East, as well as for for an observatory that together with space- export. based telescopes help find dangerous asteroids. Russia plans to build one as part http://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Russia- of an ambitious lunar base project. connects-floating-plant-to-grid Conquering the moon is on the Russian 25 Nuclear, Missile & Space Digest

World’s First Floating Nuclear Plant Deputy Defense Minister Alexei Goes Online in Russia – Rosatom Krivoruchko said that the cruiser was 50% ready and was set to be delivered to the Moscow Times, December 19, 2019 Navy in 2022. After its repairs and The world’s first floating nuclear power upgrade, the ship will get the Fort-M and plant has begun supplying electric power to Pantsyr-M air defense systems and the a remote corner of Russia amid criticisms powerful Paket-NK and Otvet anti- from environmental activists, the state submarine warfare armament, he said. nuclear company https://tass.com/defense/1101715 Rosatom announced Thursday. The Akademik Lomonosov arrived in Russia’s Russian latest nuclear-powered northernmost town of Pevek in September, three weeks after setting off on a 5,000- submarine gets new control kilometer journey through Arctic waters. system Greenpeace has voiced safety concerns with TASS News Agency, December 20, 2019 Russia’s seaborne nuclear plant, calling it the “Chernobyl on ice” and “nuclear Titanic.” The improved Project 885M (Yasen-M) lead nuclear-powered submarine Kazan The Akademik Lomonosov is set to supply will differ from the baseline 885 version Pevek’s estimated population of 100,000 by its new control system, Sevmash people with energy, Rosatom said. The Shipyard CEO Mikhail Budnichenko said floating plant’s construction costs are on Friday. “The nuclear-powered unknown, although media reports have submarine Kazan is a modernized fourth- estimated its price tag at around $450 million. generation ship. It differs from the Yasen- Rosatom said it is working on a second class lead nuclear-powered submarine floating nuclear-power plant with two 50- Severodvinsk by its new combat control megawatt reactors. and integrated sub control systems,” the chief executive said in an interview with https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2019/12/19/ the Shipyard’s journal Zavod on the eve worlds-first-floating-nuclear-plant-goes-online- of the enterprise’s 80th anniversary that in-russia-rosatom-a68683 will be celebrated on

Russian heavy nuclear-powered The Kazan is “an unusually complex missile cruiser to leave repair dock ship,” the chief executive said. “That is in 2020 why, some aspects surfaced in the process of trials that will require additional tests TASS News Agency, December 20, 2019 at sea in 2020.” “The ship is very good. The Sevmash Shipyard will roll out the During the sea trials in 2018 and 2019, it Project 11442M heavy nuclear-powered demonstrated excellent maneuvering missile-carrying cruiser Admiral Nakhimov characteristics. We are continuing to check from the repair dock in 2020, Sevmash CEO the nuclear-powered sub at sea: it is Mikhail Budnichenko told TASS on Friday. necessary to test a large number of new “Work will be fulfilled on the Project 11442M types of armament and military hardware ship in 2020 in order to move it away from installed on it,” the chief executive said. the dock,” the chief executive said. The Kazan is the first multirole nuclear- The next stage will involve the ship’s further powered submarine of the improved construction at the Shipyard’s quay and its Project 885M (Yasen-M). It was laid out preparations for sea trials, he said. “The at the Sevmash Shipyard in 2009 and work aboard the ship is proceeding in floated out on March 31, 2017. The sub is accordance with the schedule. After its expected to join Russia’s Northern Fleet upgrade, the ship will be outfitted with long- where the lead Yasen-class submarine range precision weapons and powerful anti- Severodvinsk is in operation. submarine warfare armament,” the chief https://tass.com/defense/1101683 executive added. In September, Russian 26 Volume 12, Number 1 January 15, 2019

Russia ready to include Avangard, respectively. Kola NPP is a branch of Sarmat systems in New START Rosenergoatom, Rosatom’s operator after its extension – Lavrov subsidiary. TASS News Agency, December 22, 2019 Vasily Omelchuk, Kola NPP director, said the licence exntesion for unit 2 marked the Russia is prepared to include its Avangard culmination of “many months of work by and Sarmat missile systems in New START the entire plant staff, hundreds of (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) when it contractors, research and design is extended, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey organisations” to upgrade all of the Lavrov said in an interview with the equipment and introduce the most Bolshaya Igra (Big Game) program on advanced safety systems. Rosatom said the Russia’s television Channel One. “We told new licence means that the Kola plant, not the Americans [at a bilateral consultative only guarantees the continued supply of commission set up under the New START] more than half of the electricity needed in that we have presented our new systems, the region, but also stimulates the creation including hypersonic weapons. We consider of new energy-intensive industries in the that the Avangard and Sarmat systems are Kola Arctic. Funding for the programme covered by the treaty. We are ready to to extend the operation of unit 2 amounted include these weapons and systems in the to about RUB4.5 billion (USD72.2 million), current New START (when it is extended),” making it one of biggest investment Lavrov stressed. projects in the Murmansk region, Rosatom said. “We have already presented Avangard to the Americans and we will be ready to do http://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Last-of- the same with Sarmat at a certain stage,” four-Kola-units-gets-extended-operation-li he noted. However, other systems, which Russian President Vladimir Putin Putin: Russia developing land- mentioned in his address to the Federal based version of Tsirkon Assembly in March 2018, are not covered by the New START. “We said that on these hypersonic missile systems and on new US advanced military TASS News Agency, December 24, 2019 systems we are ready to hold a separate parallel dialogue. It should be certainly held Russia is carrying out work on developing as part of a discussion on a whole range of the land-based version of the Tsirkon sea- issues, which influences strategic stability,” launched hypersonic missile, President Lavrov stressed. Vladimir Putin said at a meeting with the top brass on Tuesday. “Our work on other https://tass.com/defense/1102179 systems is proceeding according to plan: on the Sarmat enhanced-yield Last of four Kola units gets intercontinental ballistic missile, on the extended operation licence Tsirkon hypersonic missile in its land-based and sea-launched versions, on the World Nuclear News, December 23, 2019 Poseidon intercontinental-range underwater drone and on the Burevestnik Russian regulator Rostechnadzor has issued global-range nuclear-powered cruise a 15-year operating licence extension for missile,” Putin stated. A unique situation unit 2 of the Kola nuclear power plant to 2034. Kola NPP is located 200 km south of has emerged for the first time in history in the sphere of strategic balance: Russia has Murmansk, on the shore of Lake Imandra. for the first time come ahead of the United It produces about 60% of the electricity of States in developing the latest armament, the Murmansk region. The four Kola units the Russian president stressed. are VVER-440 reactors; 1 and 2 are V-230 models and 3 and 4 are of the V-213 type. “It was the United States that created the Units 1, 3 and 4 have already received licence atomic bomb and the Soviet Union was extensions - to 2033, 2027 and 2029, only catching up with it. We also lacked 27 Nuclear, Missile & Space Digest

delivery vehicles, nuclear weapon carriers Sevmash shipyard in Russia’s and strategic aviation: the Soviet Union was northwestern city of Severodvinsk on only catching up. The first intercontinental Wednesday. It comes just a few days after missiles were not developed in our country the shipyard marked its 80th anniversary either: the Soviet Union was just catching – and an event such as this is the best way up. But today a unique situation has to mark the occasion, Deputy Director emerged: they are catching up with us,” the General of Sevmash Sergey Voronko said. president stated. Footage of the launch ceremony was released to the general public – and it does https://tass.com/defense/1103063 not show much, since the new vessel remains top secret. The video only shows Putin: advanced weaponry reaches the stern of the submarine and its propeller 82% in Russia’s nuclear triad in detail, giving room for speculation.

TASS News Agency, December 24, 2019 The new vessel called the Novosibirsk, Advanced weaponry in Russia’s nuclear which is expected to join the ranks of the triad has reached 82%, President Vladimir Russian Navy next year, is the first mass Putin said on Tuesday. “The share of produced submarine of its type. The modern armament in the nuclear triad has maiden Yasen-M submarine, the Kazan, reached 82% and the latest Avangard is still undergoing naval trials and is strategic hypersonic missile system with the expected to join the Navy in 2020 as well. boost-glide vehicle has started to arrive for Four more submarines of the type are the Strategic Missile Force,” Putin told a under construction, and at least two more Defense Ministry expanded board meeting. are expected to be laid down later – Putin called the Avangard system the presumably next year. weapon of the future capable of overcoming https://www.rt.com/russia/476812-russia- both existing and promising missile defenses. nuclear-submarine-launched/ Summing up the results of the Russian Armed Forces’ activity in 2019, the head of Rosatom plans accident-tolerant state said that many qualitative and systemic fuel loading changes had taken place over that period. Important steps were taken in improving World Nuclear News, December 27, 2019 inter-operability and communications, The first Russian-made nuclear fuel reconnaissance and electronic warfare assemblies with experimental accident- systems, first of all, by way of introducing tolerant fuel (ATF) rods for commercial the latest technologies in data collection, reactors have been manufactured and transmittance and processing, the Russian passed acceptance inspection at president elaborated. Novosibirsk Chemical Concentrates Plant, a fabrication facility of Rosatom’s fuel https://tass.com/defense/1102975 manufacturer subsidiary TVEL. The ATF rods are to be loaded into one of the VVER- ‘Deadliest ever’: Russia launches 1000 units at the Rostov nuclear power new 4th-gen nuclear-powered plant in western Russia in the first quarter submarine of 2020, TVEL said yesterday.

Russian Times, December 25, 2019 Each of the three TVS-2M model fuel The advanced Yasen-M nuclear-powered assemblies contains 12 ATF rods with two submarine has been launched in Russia. The variants of cladding material - zirconium new ship, which is expected to join the Navy alloy with chromium coating or chrome- next year, is capable of carrying all existing nickel alloy. TVEL says both options make Russian cruise missiles – and likely more. claddings more heat-resistant. Alexander Ugryumov, vice president for research and The launch ceremony was held at the development at TVEL, said the company 28 Volume 12, Number 1 January 15, 2019

had met all the milestones of its ATF nuclear weapons systems. If the new programme for 2019. system, called “Avangard,” works as President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia http://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Rosatom- boasted when he described the weapon a plans-accident-tolerant-fuel-loading year ago, it would significantly enhance Moscow’s already powerful nuclear forces, Russia to build five nuclear American officials said. icebreakers by 2026 https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/27/us/ TASS News Agency, December 27, 2019 politics/russia-hypersonic-weapon.html The Baltic Plant (an affiliate of the United Shipbuilding Corporation) will build five Russia, China to hold more U.N. nuclear-powered icebreakers for the talks on lifting North Korea Northern Sea Route by 2026, Deputy Prime sanctions: diplomats Minister Yuri Borisov said on Friday. “Our country is the only one in the world that has Michelle Nichols, Reuters, December 30, a nuclear-powered fleet, which currently 2019 works on the Northern Sea Route. In 2020- U.N. Security Council members are due 2026, five new 60-megawatt icebreakers will to meet informally on Monday for a be commissioned and begin to be used in this second round of negotiations on a Russian important region, which accounts for our and Chinese proposal to lift a raft of main reserves of oil and gas. The five sanctions on North Korea, a move that icebreakers are being built at the Baltic some diplomats say has little support. Plant,” Borisov told the Rossiya-24 television China and Russia are convening news channel. negotiations a day before North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s deadline for the https://tass.com/defense/1104271 United States to show flexibility in stalled talks aimed at getting Pyongyang to give Russia Deploys Hypersonic up its nuclear weapons program. North Weapon, Potentially Renewing Korea has warned the United States could Arms Race receive an unwanted “Christmas gift” if it fails. Julian E. Barnes and David E. Sanger, The New York Times, December 27, 2019 A top White House official said on Sunday The Russian military on Friday said it had that the United States would be very deployed a hypersonic weapon that flies at disappointed if North Korea tested a long- superfast speeds and can easily evade range or nuclear missile and would take American missile defense systems, appropriate action as a leading military potentially setting off a new chapter in the and economic power. Russia and China long arms race between the world’s pre- have said they hope lifting some sanctions eminent nuclear powers. could help break the deadlock and encourage talks between Washington and American officials said Friday they have little Pyongyang. But the United States, France doubt that the Russians have a working and Britain said now is not the time to hypersonic weapon — which sits on top of consider lifting sanctions. A Security a modified missile and is capable of carrying Council resolution needs nine votes in a nuclear warhead at speeds faster than favor and no vetoes by the United States, 3,800 miles per hour. China, Russia, France and Britain.

Moscow has been working on the https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea- technology for years and has invested usa-un/russia-china-to-hold-more-u-n-talks-on- heavily in it, determined to reverse the lifting-north-korea-sanctions-diplomats- pattern in the Cold War, when it was often idUSKBN1YX0LD struggling to catch up with American 29 Nuclear, Missile & Space Digest

Russia’s Bilibino 2, Novovoronezh 4 Pouring concrete at such sites usually get licence extensions marks the official start of construction. In August, Akkuyu Nuclear, a part of World Nuclear News, December 30, 2019 Rosatom charged with implementing the Russian regulator Rostechnadzor has issued construction in Turkey, was granted a operating licence extensions to two more general licence, allowing them to start nuclear power units, bringing the total work on the second reactor. The Akkuyu number to 27 since 2001. Unit 2 of Bilibino NPP is the largest joint project between NPP and unit 4 of Novovoronezh NPP are Russia and Turkey. The $20-billion project now licensed to operate until the end of 2025 is fully funded by Russia, while in the and 2032, respectively, which is six and 13 future Russian companies are set to have years longer than their previous licences. a 51 percent stake in it. The rest will be acquired by third-party investors, State nuclear corporation Rosatom noted according to an agreement the two sides that extending the operating periods of signed in 2010. existing nuclear power units was global practice that enables the continued reliable https://www.rt.com/business/477082-russia- turkish-nuclear-plant/ supply of electricity whilst allowing time to prepare for the construction of replacement capacities. It added that units receiving West Asia licence extensions would have had to G. Iran undergo large-scale upgrade work to demonstrate that a high level of safety was Iran to U.S. Treasury: Sanctions guaranteed. are the war itself Such work included, for example, “the Tehran Times, December 16, 2019 addition of a passive cooling system in the form of special hydraulic reservoirs with The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman, in a post on his official Twitter account on boron solution, which, if necessary, enters Monday, rejected U.S. Treasury Secretary the reactor core and cools it, giving Steven Mnuchin’s remarks that sanctions additional time to start the safety systems,” Andrey Dementyev, deputy are alternative to war, noting that sanctions are exactly economic war. Seyed general director of Rosatom’s operator Abbas Mousavi’s tweet reads, subsidiary, Rosenergoatom, said. “@stevenmnuchin1 stated, #sanctions are http://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Russias- the alternative to war! Truth is: “Sanctions” Bilibino-2-Novovoronezh-4-get-licence-exte are the war itself. It is indeed the economic war and worse than that, the More nuclear energy for Turkey as #EconomicTerrorism which unfairly Russia starts work on 2nd power targets civilians especially children, the unit for Akkuyu plant elderly & the sick.” CNBC quoted Mnuchin as saying on Saturday that “the Russian Times, December 30, 2019 reason why we’re using sanctions is because they are an important alternative The construction of a new power unit at the for world military conflicts.” Talking at the Russian-built Akkuyu nuclear power plant Doha Forum, Mnuchin also claimed that (NPP) in Turkey, the first of its kind in the the U.S. in not weaponizing the dollar. country, is set to start in the first quarter of 2020. “Works at the site have already In an interview with CNN aired on begun... We may hold an official concrete September 24, Foreign Minister pouring ceremony by March,” Alexey Mohammad Javad Zarif said that Likhachev, director general of Russian sanctions were war. “Sanctions are war. nuclear energy corporation Rosatom, told Because in a war, usually military targets journalists on Monday. are chosen. In sanctions, civilians are the 30 Volume 12, Number 1 January 15, 2019

targets. So, it’s war. It’s more than war,” he benefits for Europe and efforts must be said. During a speech at the 42nd session of made to preserve it. “The JCPOA is still the UN Human Rights Council in alive and we make efforts to keep it alive,” September, Esmaeil Baghaei Hamaneh, Borrell said according to a translation of Tehran’s ambassador and permanent his remarks He noted that the European representative to the UN office in Geneva, Union supports the JCPOA and seeks to called the consequences of unilateral preserve it. sanctions against Iran “crime against humanity”. “Definitely, preserving the JCPOA has many benefits for us and it is a common https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/443081/Iran- foreign policy of the European Union’s to-U-S-Treasury-Sanctions-are-the-war-itself member states. Common foreign policy means that the majority agree with that, Araghchi says Iran’s dealings with however, there may be some different INSTEX entering its final stage views,” the EU chief diplomat said in an interview with France 24. Borrell said on Tehran Times, December 16, 2019 December 9 that the signatories to the Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas nuclear deal should adopt a united stance Araghchi said on Monday that transactions to preserve the deal. He also said on within INSTEX barter mechanism is entering December 7 that “collective responsibility” its final phase. INSTEX - the Instrument in is needed to stop the JCPOA from Support of Trade Exchanges - is designed to breaking apart. circumvent U.S. sanctions against trade with https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/443098/ Iran by avoiding the use of the dollar. It was EU-chief-diplomat-Iran-has-not-violated- introduced by the European trio of France, JCPOA Germany, and Britain on January 31. “Interaction between INSTEX and the Paris serious in salvaging Iran similar Iranian institution is at the final phase,” Araghchi told reporters on the nuclear deal: envoy sidelines of a conference at the University New Delhi, December 17, 2019 of Tehran. French ambassador to Tehran Philippe He added, “Recently, the two institutions Thiebaud has underlined Paris’s interest signed a memorandum of understanding in preserving the 2015 Iran nuclear and we hope that the first interaction will agreement, also known as the Joint take place in the coming days.” On March Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), 20, Iran’s central bank governor Abdolnaser reaffirming the seriousness and interest of Hemmati announced that a mechanism his country and the European Union in similar to INSTEX has been registered in maintaining the important agreement. Iran, officially called the Special Trade and Thiebaud made the remarks in a meeting Finance Institute (STFI). with Behrouz Kamalvandi, the spokesman of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/443100/ (IAEO) on Monday. Araghchi-says-Iran-s-dealings-with-INSTEX- entering-its-final During the meeting, the French envoy discussed the latest status of the agreement EU chief diplomat: Iran has not and expectation of the JCPOA parties to violated JCPOA maintain the agreement given Iran’s scaling down of its commitments under Tehran Times, December 16, 2019 the deal, Iran Press reported. The two sides Josep Borrell, the new EU foreign policy also exchanged views on bilateral chief, has said Iran is moving within the cooperation in various fields of nuclear framework of the JCPOA and has not science and technology, including fusion violated it, IRNA reported on Monday. and radiopharmaceuticals, and the Borrell also said the 2015 nuclear deal has deepening of relations in the field of 31 Nuclear, Missile & Space Digest

nuclear industry. Washington withdrew Wednesday that if the Europeans fail to from the internationally-endorsed nuclear fulfil their commitments under the 2015 deal with Iran on May 8, 2018, reimposed nuclear deal, known as the JCPOA, Iran the toughest-ever sanctions against the will have no choice but to continue country and started a plan to zero down reducing its commitments to the pact in Tehran’s oil sales. order to create a balance. During a meeting with Russian Security Council Secretary https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/443133/Paris- Nikolai Patrushev on the sidelines of the serious-in-salvaging-Iran-nuclear-deal-envoy Regional Security Dialogue on Afghanistan in Tehran, Shamkhani also No deal can survive if there is no praised Russia’s stance on the nuclear deal. balance between gives and takes, Araqchi says of JCPOA For his part, Patrushev said that the JCPOA must be implemented and that Iran must Tehran Times, December 17, 2019 enjoy its benefits. Josep Borrell, the new EU foreign policy chief, has said Iran is “The message is that we want to save the moving within the framework of the deal. The purpose is not to kill the deal. JCPOA and has not violated it, IRNA Otherwise, we could have withdrawn from reported on Monday. Borrell also said the the deal right after the U.S. withdrew on nuclear deal has benefits for Europe and May 8, 2018, and nobody would have efforts must be made to preserve it. “The blamed us because that was in reaction to JCPOA is still alive and we make efforts what the U.S. has done,” he told CGTN in to keep it alive,” Borrell said, according to an interview published on Tuesday. “But a translation of his remarks. He noted that we decided to give diplomacy a chance to the European Union supports the JCPOA save the deal. And now,… we are exercising and seeks to preserve it. our right in paragraph 36 of the deal. So, we are still in the deal and are trying to take https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/443170/ remedy measures in order to save the deal,” Iran-to-continue-reducing-JCPOA-commit- he added. ments-to-create-a-balance

He said, “No deal can survive if there is not Iran is testing new uranium a balance between gives and takes. And we have no balance in the deal right now. Iran enrichment centrifuges, President is fully committed to its obligations up to Hassan Rouhani says May this year. But we received nothing. So, Joshua Berlinger and Mallory Gafas what Iran is doing is still trying to restore the balance in the deal, which hasn’t happen CNN, December 19, 2019 yet.” Araghchi asserts that Iran wouldn’t Iran President Hassan Rouhani said his bow to pressure. Negotiating under country is working on the development of maximum pressure is tantamount to new, advanced uranium enrichment surrender, Araghchi believes. centrifuges, according to Iranian state-run https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/443142/No- news agency IRNA, a move that appears deal-can-survive-if-there-is-no-balance-between- to violate the landmark nuclear agreement gives-and Tehran signed with world powers in 2015. Rouhani said at a meeting with Iranian Iran to continue reducing JCPOA expatriates in the Malaysian capital of commitments to create a balance: Kuala Lumpur on Wednesday that the country is now testing IR-9 centrifuges, Shamkhani which convert mined uranium into fuel Tehran Times, New Delhi, December 18, for nuclear power. Iran has repeatedly 2019 denied it has any ambitions of building a nuclear weapon. Iran had agreed to strict Ali Shamkhani, secretary of Iran’s Supreme limits on uranium enrichment as part of National Security Council (SNSC), said on 32 Volume 12, Number 1 January 15, 2019

the 2015 nuclear deal, known as the Joint expats. Iran was gripped by several days Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). of violent protests in November amid anger over a sharp hike in gasoline prices https://edition.cnn.com/2019/12/19/middleeast/ following U.S. sanctions after Washington iran-nuclear-enrichment-rouhani-intl-hnk/ withdrew last year from Iran’s 2015 index.html nuclear deal with world powers. Rouhani told the Islamic conference that the U.S. Iran and US both undermining sought to cripple Iran with the “heaviest nuclear deal says UN political sanctions” but the country’s economy is affairs chief on the mend and moving away from reliance on oil. UN News, December 19, 2019 https://apnews.com/ Rosemary DiCarlo was briefing the Security 6b6541184b35ded84c0513b50b234f34 Council on nuclear non-proliferation, and resolution 2231 that specifically backed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of U.S. sanctions are ‘collective Action (JCPOA), agreed in July 2015, by punishment’, Iranian diplomat China, France, Germany, Russia, The United says Kingdom, the United States, the European Tehran Times, December 20, 2019 Union, and Iran (see fact box below for full details). She said the “full and effective Majid Takht-Ravanchi, Iran’s ambassador implementation” of the Plan was “key to to the United Nations, said on Thursday ensuring the peaceful nature of Iran’s that the United States’ sanctions against nuclear programme and to secure tangible Iran are illegitimate, immoral, inhumane economic benefit to the Iranian people.” Ms. and cruel. “What the U.S. sanctions are DiCarlo said the US decision to pull out of intended to do is ‘collective punishment’ the deal was a source of “regret” as well as of the general public, which is prohibited “the recent steps taken by Iran to reduce its even in armed conflicts,” Majid Takht- nuclear-related commitments”. Ravanchi said in a statement read in the UN Security Council meeting. He said https://news.un.org/en/story/2019/12/1054071 sanctions are “targeting the most vulnerable groups of ordinary people in Iran president says country testing order to create discontent within the new advanced centrifuges society.”

Amir Vahdat, AP News, December 19, 2019 Following is the full text of the statement Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani said his issued on implementation of Security country’s nuclear experts are testing a new Council resolution 2231, which endorsed type of advanced centrifuges, remarks likely the 2015 nuclear deal: The Security meant to rally support for the Iranian leader Council is once again considering the as his nation struggles under crushing U.S. implementation of one of its most sanctions. Rouhani spoke during a meeting important resolutions, namely resolution Wednesday with Iranian expatriates in 2231, which is being vehemently violated Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, where he also by a permanent member of the Council, used an Islamic conference on Thursday as an unprecedented development in the a platform to decry American sanctions history of the UN. Here, I wish to express against Iran. my appreciation to all fourteen members of the Council for lending their valuable “We have had great achievements and support to the JCPOA. today, Iranian new IR-6 centrifuges are working and models IR-9 are currently being https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/443208/U- tested,” the state-run IRNA news agency S-sanctions-are-collective-punishment-Iranian- diplomat quoted Rouhani as telling the Iranian 33 Nuclear, Missile & Space Digest

In rare move, U.S. and Iranian cooperation in the interest of international envoys talk after U.N. meeting on peace and security.” nuclear deal U.S. President Donald Trump quit the Michelle Nichols, Reuters, December 20, nuclear deal in May 2018 and introduced 2019 the harshest ever sanctions on Iran as part of his administration’s “maximum The U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations pressure” campaign against Iran. Under made a rare compassionate public gesture the JCPOA, Iran promised to put limits on toward her Iranian counterpart in the its nuclear activities in exchange for the Security Council chamber on Thursday, termination of economic and financial expressing condolences over the death of an sanctions. Iranian toddler. Since Washington pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal in May 2018, https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/443209/ tensions between the United States and UN-says-US-withdrawal-from-nuclear-deal-is- Tehran have risen. source-of-regret

But after a contentious U.N. Security Council Iran may not take fifth JCPOA meeting on compliance with the 2015 step if INSTEX goes into effect: accord between world powers and Iran, Ambassador Kelly Craft walked over to talk senior MP to Iran’s U.N. Ambassador Majid Takht Tehran Times, December 21, 2019 Ravanchi. Ravanchi had spoken about a two-year old girl during his statement to the Chairman of the Iranian Parliament 15-member council. He said the girl had died National Security and Foreign Policy in June from a rare disease known as EB and Commission Mojtaba Zonnour has said blamed the death on U.S. sanctions. that if the EU-proposed INSTEX is operationalized, Tehran may reconsider https://in.reuters.com/article/iran-usa-un/in-rare- taking the fifth step in reducing its move-u-s-and-iranian-envoys-talk-after-u-n- commitments to the nuclear deal. “In case meeting-on-nuclear-deal-idINKBN1YO0SB the signatories to the JCPOA, especially Europe, operationalize INSTEX and UN says US withdrawal from sanctions are removed, the fifth step of nuclear deal is ‘source of regret’ reducing commitments to the JCPOA may not be taken,” Zonnour told Mehr News Tehran Times, December 20, 2019 Agency on Thursday. “Certain actions taken by the United States, “Although, we predict that the European since its withdrawal from the Plan, are countries will not take any specific and contrary to the goals of the Plan”, she said, influential measure to preserve the addressing the Security Council meeting on JCPOA,” he added. On the U.S. nuclear non-proliferation, and resolution anniversary of the U.S. withdrawal from 2231, the UN website reported. Summing the JCPOA, Tehran announced it would up the importance of the JCPOA, DiCarlo take steps back from its JCPOA obligations said that António Guterres, the UN every 60-day unless the other signatories secretary general, considers the full to the deal abide by their commitments implementation of resolution 2231, by all under the accord. As the latest step (the member states “as an integral component fourth step) to scale back JCPOA of our collective conflict prevention efforts.” commitments, Iran injected gas into IR6 Resolution 2231 confirmed the nuclear deal centrifuges and resumed uranium between Iran, the five permanent members enrichment at Fordow nuclear facility in of the UN Security Council, Germany, and early November. the European Union. She added that it was https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/443274/ the secretary-general’s wish for all countries Iran-may-not-take-fifth-JCPOA-step-if- “to avoid confrontational actions and INSTEX-goes-into-effect explore avenues for dialogue and 34 Volume 12, Number 1 January 15, 2019

‘China, Europe support strides have been taken thus far in this implementation of nuclear deal’ regard.” Tehran Times, December 21, 2019 He added, “If we divide the reactor’s system into 50 parts, out of which 20 parts “China and Europe, as two major forces for have been completed so far, 12 more parts multilateralism, agreed to strengthen are under completion and preliminary communication and coordination, carry out works on the remaining 12 parts have the consensus reached at the Foreign been started.” “Today, we make Ministers’ Meeting on the Iranian Nuclear operational a remarkable part of the Issue in September, and ensure the full and reactor titled the secondary circuit which effective implementation of the JCPOA,” is different from the primary part,” Salehi Geng told a press conference, according to stated. “The primary circuit is tasked with the Chinese Foreign Ministry website. removing heat from the heart of the He added, “Both sides support diplomatic reactor, and the secondary circuit is mediation efforts and stand for resolving responsible for transferring the heat from compliance issues through consultation the primary circuit to cooling towers and within the JCPOA Joint Commission. We finally to the outside environment,” stand ready to work for the easing of explained Salehi, a nuclear physicist. tensions to uphold the international nuclear https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/443343/ non-proliferation regime as well as peace Iran-installs-Arak-heavy-water-reactor-s- and stability in the Middle East.” Ali secondary-circuit Shamkhani, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), said on Iran unveils development at Arak Wednesday that if the Europeans fail to fulfil reactor in face of U.S. pressure their commitments under the nuclear deal, Iran will have no choice but to continue Reuters, December 23, 2019 reducing its commitments to the pact in order to create a balance. Josep Borrell, the Iran unveiled a redevelopment of part of new EU foreign policy chief, said on its Arak heavy water reactor on Monday December 7 that “collective responsibility” - a move that did not breach international is needed to stop the JCPOA from breaking restrictions on its nuclear work but apart. showed it is developing the sector in the face of U.S. pressure. Iranian state media https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/443268/ said technicians switched on a secondary China-Europe-support-implementation-of- circuit at Arak, a plant built to produce nuclear-deal the heavy water used as a moderator to slow down reactions in the core of nuclear Iran installs Arak heavy water reactors. reactor’s secondary circuit “Today we are ... starting a noteworthy Tehran Times, December 23, 2019 section of the reactor,” the head of Iran’s atomic agency, Ali Akbar Salehi, said in In a ceremony on Monday, the Atomic remarks broadcast live on state TV. Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) started Tehran has been reactivating parts of its the first stage of installing equipment of the nuclear program in protest at the United Arak heavy water reactor, including States’ withdrawal last year from an secondary circuit. Ali Akbar Salehi, the international deal meant to limit the AEOI chief, who had attended the Islamic Republic’s ability to develop a ceremony, said, “One of the largest nuclear bomb. achievements of Iran in nuclear technology is planning and building Arak’s Khondab https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran- research site. Our young scientists began a nuclear-arak/iran-unveils-development-at-arak- way 20 years ago and we witness that giant reactor-in-face-of-u-s-pressure- idUSKBN1YR0KA 35 Nuclear, Missile & Space Digest

Nuclear deal is in trouble: British preparing for “limited confrontation” diplomat with Tehran. Tehran Times, December 24, 2019 “There is a possibility that we will face a limited confrontation with Iran and we are “I had in Moscow last week our political preparing for it,” he said, stressing that it director, Richard Moore. Richard is the would have been better had Israel not been foreign secretary’s top advisor on matters of the only one engaged in the anti-Iran international security. He was here with his campaign. “We will not allow Iran to European colleagues, French and German entrench itself in Syria, or in Iraq,” he colleagues, to talk with their Russian added. In August, Iranian Defense colleague, Sergei Ryabkov, about the Iran Minister Amir Hatami underlined his nuclear deal. The reasons you well know. country’s astonishing progress in The Iran nuclear deal is in trouble,” he told producing different types of weapons and Interfax in an interview published on missiles, saying that Iran was able to Monday. “As the leading members of the protect its security by conventional international community – we [Russian and warheads. the UK] are both permanent members of the UN Security Council – we have a special https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/443543/Tel- responsibility here to work together to Aviv-repeats-allegations-against-Iran-s- strengthen the international nuclear non- peaceful-nuclear proliferation arrangements,” he said. Zarif says it is unlikely Europe to During a meeting with Russian Security quit nuclear deal Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev on the sidelines of the Regional Security Dialogue Tehran Times, December 31, 2019 on Afghanistan in Tehran on December 18, Ali Shamkhani, secretary of Iran’s Supreme Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif National Security Council (SNSC), said that has told IRNA in an interview published if the Europeans fail to fulfil their on Tuesday that it is unlikely that Europe commitments under the nuclear deal, Iran withdraw from the 2015 nuclear deal, will have no choice but to continue reducing officially known as the Joint its commitments to the pact in order to create Comprehensive Plan of Action. However, a balance. the chief diplomat said Europeans are unable act independently from https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/443393/ Washington in regard to the JCPOA. Nuclear-deal-is-in-trouble-British-diplomat “Unfortunately, the Europeans could not take practical actions on the JCPOA Tel Aviv repeats allegations against independent from the United States,” Iran’s peaceful nuclear and defense Zarif remarked. Zarif added, “It is essential missile programs for the Europeans to take practical actions on JCPOA.” Tehran Times, December 29, 2019 He noted that Iran will reverse its decision In an address to Mossad’s agents, Cohen said to reduce commitments under the deal if the Islamic Republic is “at the top of the Europeans take practical actions. U.S. Mossad’s work priorities,” Press TV reported President Donald Trump quit the nuclear on Saturday. “All Iranian nuclear, long- deal in May 2018 and introduced the range missile and precision missile harshest ever sanctions on Iran as part of activities,” as well as its regional role “are a his administration’s “maximum pressure” challenge to the security of” Israel, he campaign against Iran. added. The remarks came one day after Israeli military chief of staff Lieutenant https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/443630/ General Aviv Kochavi said Tel Aviv is Zarif-says-it-is-unlikely-Europe-to-quit- nuclear-deal 36 Volume 12, Number 1 January 15, 2019

Iran in worst days of sanctions: territory, targeting specific Syrian and Rouhani Iranian positions. One of the missiles landed in a populated area in one of Tehran Times, December 31, 2019 Damascus’ suburbs. No causalities were Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said on reported. Moreover, Israeli jets were heard Tuesday that the country is passing “the in Lebanon’s skies during the night, worst days” of sanctions imposed by the indicating that the Israeli army may have U.S., praising the people for their resistance been planning to carry out aerial attacks and patience. Addressing a ceremony as well. The Syrian state television station arranged to inaugurate subway train in the SANA claimed that the Syrian regime western part of Alborz province, Rouhani successfully intercepted the missiles, hailed people for their firm stance and downing one. Israel’s daily Haaretz resistance in hard days of sanctions. reported that “four cruise missiles were believed to have been launched across the Pointing to the consequences of sanctions on coast through Lebanese airspace toward the country, he said, “If we were not Syria.” The Britain-based Syrian engaged in an imposed-economic war, we Observatory for Human Rights, an could enjoy a sum of $200 billion out of opposition war monitoring group that has which $100 billion was income of crude observers across the country, said the export. Now we do not have that hefty missile attacks targeted Iranian and Syrian amount of money.” “We are managing the positions near Damascus, namely near the country without that $200 billion income. Israeli-occupied territories. People are not living comfortably, however, we (the government) try as much as we https://www.dailysabah.com/mideast/2019/12/ 23/israel-determined-to-target-iranian-posi- can,” he went on to say. Elsewhere in his tions-in-syria remarks, Rouhani said, “People should expect the government to understand (the problems), to draft required plan (to solve I. Turkey the problem) and try (to implement its plan) Turkey is going nuclear by 2030: as much as it can. If the government does Part 2 not manage to do its duty it should be criticized.” Mehmet Öðütçü, Hurriyet Daily, December 17, 2019 https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/443611/Iran- in-worst-days-of-sanctions-Rouhani Currently, the Mersin Akkuyu project undertaken with Russia remains Turkey’s H. Israel sole concrete “nuclear energy game” in town. This does not mean that the Akkuyu Israel determined to target Iranian project will have a smooth path towards positions in Syria the 2023 target and beyond. The government presents nuclear energy as Yusuf Selman Ýnanç, Daily Sabah, December cheap, sustainable and environmentally 23, 2019 friendly. It is also portrayed by many as a The Israeli army targeted Syrian and Iranian powerful way to diversify the country’s positions near Damascus, the Israeli media energy portfolio while at the same time reported; while the Syrian state, in a reducing energy dependence and spilling statement, said missiles fired were over to the civilian economy. intercepted. Though Israeli army officials However, as a country, which had remained silent and refused to issue a experienced the consequences of statement, the attacks show that Israel is Chernobyl disaster in 1986, it is not easy determined to keep its frontiers clear of Iran to convince people completely of the and its proxies. benefits of a nuclear plant within the According to reports released Sunday night, borders. In the public debate, there is no the Israeli army fired missiles into Syrian shortage of prejudice, misperception and 37 Nuclear, Missile & Space Digest

ideological preferences for a variety of the island of Cyprus, and the institution reasons, including public opposition, high of a framework agreement on the EastMed capital cost and financing difficulties, and gas pipeline have greatly hampered the insufficient governance and management efforts. capacity on the part of the Turkish state agencies. Perhaps, the biggest concern is the https://www.dailysabah.com/energy/2019/12/17/ lack of an independent nuclear regulator turkey-israel-gas-cooperation-lucrative-for- and a ‘‘safety culture’’ in state institutions capitalizing-on-east-med-resources that is commensurate with the risks inherent in nuclear operations. Public consultation Turkey accuses US Congress of and dispute settlement mechanisms does not ‘hostile’ behaviour exist yet. Political concerns and bureaucratic Laura Pitel, Financial Times, December 18, interests might be at play instead of technical 2019 assessments of supply and demand. Turkey has accused the US Congress of http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkey-is- “hostile” behaviour after senators passed going-nuclear-by-2030-part-2-149929 punitive measures against Ankara, underscoring the growing tensions Turkey, Israel gas cooperation between the two Nato members. Ankara lucrative for capitalizing on East claimed on Wednesday that members of Med resources Congress were “acting under the influence of anti-Turkish circles” after they Elif Binici Erºen, Daily Sabah, December 17, approved the National Defense 2019 Authorization Act (NDAA), a sprawling The reports also suggested that the Israeli military bill that included provisions officials welcomed the idea of initiating intended to punish Turkey for its growing negotiations for the Turkish proposal to closeness with Russia — and for a build a gas pipeline from Israeli fields to simmering dispute with Cyprus over deliver the gas to Europe. “It is good to see a natural gas reserves in the eastern positive media discourse emerge on potential Mediterranean. cooperation between Israel and Turkey. For a long while, we mostly heard about negative “The language of threats and sanctions will developments in ties,” Dr. Nimrod Goren, never dissuade Turkey from resolutely the founder and head of Mitvim – the Israeli taking steps to ensure its national Institute for Regional Foreign Policies, told security,” the Turkish foreign ministry said Daily Sabah, commenting on the recent in a statement. “No one should doubt that reports. However, Goren remained cautious necessary measures will be taken against of an immediate recovery or quick these initiatives targeting Turkey.” The rapprochement between the two countries. sprawling $738bn defence bill, which was approved by the US Senate on Tuesday In June 2016, Israeli Energy Minister Yuval and is expected to be signed into law by Steinitz announced a reconciliation president Donald Trump shortly, renewed agreement between Ankara and Tel Aviv a decision to exclude Turkey from the US- after six years of strained bilateral relations led F-35 fighter jet programme — a following the Mavi Marmara incident in retaliatory move in response to Ankara’s 2010. While both parties endeavored to keep purchase of a Russian-made S-400 air the détente and resorted to energy defence system. diplomacy as an effective instrument at the time, the changing dynamics of regional https://www.ft.com/content/79feb8c0-2183- politics, Israel’s choices of energy partners, 11ea-b8a1-584213ee7b2b moves to exclude Turkey and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) from the share of hydrocarbon resources around 38 Volume 12, Number 1 January 15, 2019

Turkey solidified regional presence extent in 2019. The country sent a second with East Med move vessel, Yavuz, to the East Mediterranean Sea on June 20 to begin hydrocarbon The Daily Sabah, December 19, 2019 exploration off the coast of Cyprus.

Turkey’s recent energy politics in the Eastern During the year, ongoing efforts to find Mediterranean have strengthened its common ground in sharing the East presence in the region, experts on energy Mediterranean reserves between all said. Amid deepened conflicts between concerned actors, namely Turkey, the countries in the region over resources, the Turkish Republic of North Cyprus issue of maritime borders in the Eastern (TRNC), and the Greek Cypriot Mediterranean has been at the top of many Administration failed. On July 13, the state’s agendas. “This step that came TRNC President Mustafa Akinci via the following the cross-border operation, has United Nations extended the hand of strengthened Turkey’s presence in the cooperation to explore hydrocarbon region. The recent policies and strategies resources as equal partners and share the have shown that Turkey also has a say in income equally with the Greek Cypriot the region,” Levent Aydýn, a professor on administration leader Nicos Anastasiades. Energy at Ankara Social Sciences University Three days later, however, the Greek said at a panel on energy in the Eastern Cypriot party leaders rejected this Mediterranean, organized by the Institute proposal. In response, the Turkish Foreign of Strategic Thinking (SDE). Ministry clarified its stance in a statement Turkey has recently sealed a deal with Libya saying “it is a vain expectation for those to secure its rights in the Mediterranean who think that Turkey will bow to threats while preventing any fait accompli action and back down on its rights in the Eastern by other states in the region and to pursue Mediterranean.” its interests regarding natural resources in https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/highlights- the Eastern Mediterranean. Furthermore, as of-turkish-energy-market-in-2019/1685141 a guarantor country, Turkey is also seeking to protect the rights of the the Turkish Akkuyu NPP signs coolant Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC). equipment agreement with https://www.dailysabah.com/politics/2019/12/19/ Russian, German firms turkey-solidified-regional-presence-with-east-med- move-1576780942 The Daily Sabah, December 29, 2019 Turkey has signed an agreement to obtain Highlights of Turkish energy coolant system equipment for turbine market in 2019 installments at the country’s first nuclear power plant in Akkuyu, the Russian State Ebru Sengul, Anadulu Agency, December 27, Nuclear Energy Corporation (Rosatom) 2019 confirmed Saturday. To supply equipment The start of new drilling operations in the for systems that will provide cooling water Eastern Mediterranean, the completion of for turbine capacitors, Rosatom’s energy the TurkStream pipeline project, the engineering division Atomenergomash, finalization of the laying of the foundation Russian firm NPO TsNIITMASH and for the first reactor of the Akkuyu Nuclear Germany’s Taprogge GmbH signed a deal Power Plant, the European leg of the Trans with Akkuyu nuclear power plant (NPP). Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (TANAP) Atomenergomash, which manufactures and the record high electricity generation reactor equipment for nuclear power from renewable and local resources marked plants in India, Bangladesh, China and the top news stories in Turkey’s energy Russia, will supply machinery equipment sector in 2019. Turkey’s exploration and for Akkuyu’s four reactors. An drilling activities in the Eastern intergovernmental agreement was signed Mediterranean have expanded to a great between Russia and Turkey in May 2010 39 Nuclear, Missile & Space Digest

for the Akkuyu NPP that will consist of four estimate, raising the likelihood that VVER-1200 power units with a total consumers will get stuck covering the installed capacity of 4,800 megawatts. difference through their power bills. Japan Atomic Power Co. (JAPC) is seeking to https://www.dailysabah.com/energy/2019/12/29/ restart the plant, idled since the 2011 akkuyu-npp-signs-coolant-equipment-agreement- Fukushima nuclear disaster, as soon as with-russian-german-firms possible to secure much-needed revenue by selling power from it to electric utilities. Second unit in Akkuyu nuke plant to begin construction in early 2020 The plant operator has been negotiating with leading general contractors over the Daily Sabah, December 30, 2019 cost of work to increase safety at the single- The construction of the second unit of reactor plant along the coast of Ibaraki Turkey’s first nuclear power plant Akkuyu Prefecture. It aims to ink contracts for the may start in the first quarter of 2020, Russia’s work by March 2020. But the difference atomic energy corporation Rosatom’s over the cost between the two sides has Director General Alexey Likhachev said. rarely narrowed. Construction of a 20- “We may hold an official concrete pouring meter-tall seawall and an emergency ceremony in March 2020,” Likhachev said facility to protect the plant from possible during a press conference in Moscow, and tsunami and other natural disasters are added that the preliminary works at the site among the protective measures scheduled. have already begun. Likhachev said that The ballooning price tag is blamed on a Titan-2 IC Ýçtas, a joint venture between spike in the cost of civil engineering Concern Titan-2 JSC and the Turkish materials, machine tools and workers, construction company IC Ýçtas, is to carry according to officials familiar with the out the construction of the plant. matter. The plant operator urged contractors to rethink their estimates, but “We created an alliance with Turkey’s IC they refused, maintaining that the higher Ýçtas and Concern Titan-2, which is a part price was inevitable in order to complete of Rosatom. This alliance gives us hope for the project on time. With JAPC’s self- the successful implementation of the imposed March deadline to conclude project,” Likhachev said. An contracts fast approaching, industry intergovernmental agreement was signed analysts say the operator will likely give between Turkey and Russia in May 2010 for in to the contractors’ demands. Akkuyu NPP, the first nuclear plant of Turkey that will have four VVER-1200 http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/ power reactors with a total installed AJ201912170067.html capacity of 4,800 megawatts. Calls grow to preserve factory that https://www.dailysabah.com/energy/2019/12/30/ survived atomic bombing second-unit-in-akkuyu-nuke-plant-to-begin- construction-in-early-2020 Sonoko Miyazaki, Asahi Shimbun, December 19, 2019 East Asia A former Imperial Japanese Army clothing J. Japan factory that emerged more or less intact after the 1945 atomic bombing of this city Contractors want 70 billion yen more is due to be torn down unless authorities for safety at nuclear plant can be persuaded to preserve the historic structure. Mayu Seto, who works with Takashi Ichida, Asahi Shimbun, December Fukuoka, submitted about 12,000 17, 2019 signatures collected over the first five days Costs to safeguard the Tokai No. 2 nuclear to the prefectural government on Dec. 16. plant here will run at least 70 billion yen The online campaign will continue. ($642 million) more than the plant operator’s The factory is one of the largest structures 40 Volume 12, Number 1 January 15, 2019

left standing in Hiroshima after the nuclear Rouhani on Tokyo’s plan to send naval attack. It is also one of the oldest reinforced forces to the Middle East to protect concrete structures in Japan. Completed in Japanese vessels, a Japanese official said. 1913, the facility produced military uniforms Rouhani said in response that he and boots for Japanese troops. The structure, understood Japan’s intention to contribute situated just 2.7 kilometers from ground zero, to navigational safety, the official told a served as an aid station in the aftermath of media briefing after the two leaders met the atomic bombing. The factory often in Tokyo. “I’m highly concerned about features in wartime accounts given by tensions running high in the Middle East,” hibakusha atomic bomb survivors. Abe told Rouhani at the start of the meeting. Friction between Tehran and http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/ Washington has increased since last year AJ201912190001.html when U.S. President Donald Trump pulled the United States out of Tehran’s Severed section of JR Joban Line in 2015 nuclear deal with six nations and re- Fukushima to reopen in March imposed sanctions on the country, crippling its economy. Shoko Rikimaru Asahi Shimbun, December 19, 2019 Japan, a U.S. ally maintaining friendly ties with Iran, is looking to launch its own A disrupted section of the JR Joban Line near operation rather than joining a U.S.-led the beleaguered Fukushima nuclear plant is mission to protect shipping in the region. expected to reopen March 14, bringing the Local media have said the plan will be entire line back in service for the first time approved by Abe’s cabinet as soon as next in nine years. A test run to check signal week. In the Tokyo meeting, Abe asked lights, rails and crossings started in Rouhani to stick to commitments made in Fukushima Prefecture Dec. 18. As part of the landmark 2015 nuclear agreement and the test, a five-car train arrived around 10:20 said Japan would do what it can to ensure a.m. at the newly built Futaba Station, about stability in the Middle East. In turn, 4 kilometers northwest of the plant. The Rouhani asked Abe to work with other Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant countries to help keep the nuclear deal suffered a triple meltdown following the alive. “I hope Japan and other countries Great East Japan Earthquake and tsunami in the world will work hard to help keep in March 2011, with residents in wide areas the nuclear agreement in place.” In ordered to evacuate. response to re-imposed sanctions, Iran has gradually scaled back its commitments to The tests will continue through Dec. 20, with the deal this year. the train making two round trips a day between Tomioka and Namie, the 20.8- https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-iran- kilometer section of the line that has abe/japan-briefs-iran-on-plan-to-send-forces-to- remained out of service. If service in the middle-east-idUSKBN1YO10W section is resumed, the Joban Line will connect Nippori in Tokyo to Iwanuma in Government proposes release of Miyagi Prefecture, covering about 344 km. Fukushima water to sea or air http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/ Mari Yamaguchi, AP News, December 23, AJ201912190048.html 2019

Japan briefs Iran on plan to send Japan’s economy and industry ministry proposed on Monday the gradual release forces to Middle East or evaporation of massive amounts of Kiyoshi Takenaka, Reuters, December 20, treated but still radioactive water being 2019 stored at the tsunami-wrecked Fukushima nuclear plant. The proposal to a group of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on experts is the first time the ministry has Friday briefed Iranian President Hassan 41 Nuclear, Missile & Space Digest

narrowed down the various options K. North Korea available to those choices. It is meant to solve a growing problem for the plant’s operator Biegun may hold secret meeting as storage space for the water runs out, with NK in Beijing: ex-unification despite fears of a backlash from the public. minister The draft proposal will be discussed further. Nearly nine years after the 2011 meltdowns Yonhap, Korea Herald, December 18, 2019 of three reactor cores at the Fukushima Dai- The US point man on North Korea, ichi Nuclear Plant, radioactive water Stephen Biegun, could hold a secret continues to accumulate as water used to meeting with North Korean officials when keep the cores cool leaks from the damaged he travels to China later this week, a reactors and is stored in tanks so it won’t former South Korean unification minister escape into the ocean or elsewhere. said Wednesday. The State Department announced earlier that Biegun, US special https://apnews.com/ representative for North Korea policy, will e60f93b7f7de2ff7b5b015fb5167dd9b visit Beijing on Thursday and Friday “to discuss the need to maintain international Japan’s NHK delivers erroneous unity on North Korea.” The previously North Korean ‘Christmas gift’ unannounced trip, which follows his visits Chang-Ran Kim, Kaori Kaneko, Reuters, to Seoul and Tokyo, spawned speculation December 27, 2019 about whether it has anything to do with Biegun’s offer to meet with North Korean Japanese public broadcaster NHK on Friday officials to talk about ways to move the sent a news bulletin that incorrectly reported stalled nuclear talks forward. North Korea had launched a missile that fell into waters east of the Japanese archipelago, Biegun publicly made the proposal during issuing an apology explaining it was a media a news conference in Seoul on Monday, training alert. The news alert came as the apparently offering to meet with the United States and its East Asian allies have North Koreans at the border village of been on tenterhooks after Pyongyang’s Panmunjom while he was in the South. warning this month of a possible “Christmas The North has not reacted to the offer gift” for Washington in what experts took publicly yet. “Special Representative to mean a possible long-range missile test. Biegun’s plan to go to Beijing must mean The NHK bulletin, sent out 22 minutes after that there is a change in North Korea’s midnight on its website, read: “North situation,” former Unification Minister Korean missile seen as having fallen into seas Jeong Se-hyun, currently executive vice about 2,000 km east of Hokkaido’s Cape chairperson of the presidential National Erimo”, suggesting a flight path over Unification Advisory Council, said during Japanese territory. The same information a council meeting. was also delivered to users’ phones through NHK’s apps. http://www.koreaherald.com/ view.php?ud=20191218000801&ACE_SEARCH=1 NHK corrected the information on those platforms, as well as on television and radio U.N. condemns North Korea rights within half an hour, an NHK spokesman abuses, Pyongyang rejects said. “We apologize to our viewers and the resolution public,” NHK said in a statement on its website, explaining the alert was for training Reuters, December 19, 2019 purposes. It also said it would review its The United Nations General Assembly on procedures to prevent a recurrence. Wednesday condemned “the long- https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea- standing and ongoing systematic, missiles-nhk/japans-nhk-delivers-erroneous-north- widespread and gross violations of human korean-christmas-gift-idUSKBN1YV044 rights in and by” North Korea in an annual resolution that Pyongyang’s U.N. 42 Volume 12, Number 1 January 15, 2019

envoy rejected. The resolution, sponsored by US watching North Korea for dozens of countries including the United ‘Christmas gift’ missile launch States, was adopted by the 193-member General Assembly without a vote. Such Lolita C. Baldor resolutions are non-binding but can carry AP News, December 20, 2019 political weight. The U.S. is closely watching North Korea North Korea’s U.N. Ambassador Kim Song for signs of a possible missile launch or told the General Assembly that the resolution nuclear test in the coming days that has “nothing to do with the genuine officials are referring to as a “Christmas promotion and protection of human rights, surprise.” A significant launch or test as it is an impure product of political plots would mean the end of North Korea’s self- by hostile forces that seek to tarnish the imposed moratorium and raise tensions in dignity and image of the DPRK and the region. It would also be a major blow overthrow our social system.” North Korea’s to one of the Trump administration’s official name is the Democratic People’s major foreign policy initiatives: the drive Republic of Korea (DPRK). to get North Korea back to negotiations to eliminate its nuclear weapons and missiles. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea- rights-un/un-condemns-north-korea-rights- Earlier this month, the North conducted abuses-pyongyang-rejects-resolution- what U.S. officials say was an engine test. idUSKBN1YM2J8 North Korea described it as “crucial” and experts believe that it may have involved N. Korea establishes info website an engine for a space launch vehicle or on science, technology long-range missile. Officials worry that it could be a prelude to the possible launch Yonhap, Korea Herald, December 19, 2019 of an intercontinental ballistic missile in North Korea recently established a website the coming days or weeks. providing information on science and technology trade, its state media said https://apnews.com/ d846a03014a975c351ba3e640410c2da Thursday, an apparent move to revitalize related sectors amid economic challenges stemming from global sanctions. The North‘s North Korea warns U.S. could ‘pay National Science and Technology dearly’ for human rights criticism Committee created it to contribute to Joyce Lee invigorating technology trade by establishing a link to prepare and verify the Reuters, December 21, 2019 quality and competitiveness of technology North Korea lashed back at the United products, the official Korean Central News States for taking issue with its human Agency said. “The units that register with rights record on Saturday, saying the website can save human and material Washington’s “malicious words” would resources and time related to the efforts, only aggravate tensions on the Korean materials and funds required for the Peninsula, state news agency KCNA development and production of new reported. The KCNA statement, attributed technologies and products, and increase the to a foreign ministry spokesperson, efficiency of their spending,” the KCNA warned that if the United States dared to said. take issue with the North’s system of http://www.koreaherald.com/ government by citing human rights view.php?ud=20191219000814&ACE_SEARCH=1 problems, it would “pay dearly”. The United Nations General Assembly on Wednesday condemned North Korea’s 43 Nuclear, Missile & Space Digest

“long-standing and ongoing” violations of meeting also decided on “important human rights in an annual resolution military issues and measures for sponsored by dozens of countries including organizing or expanding and reorganizing the United States, that Pyongyang’s U.N. new units in conformity with the party’s envoy rejected. The North Korean Foreign military and strategic intention, changing Ministry statement is its first since U.S. the affiliation of some units and changing special envoy for North Korea, Stephen deployment of units.” KCNA, however, Biegun, publicly urged Pyongyang on did not provide details on what military Monday to return to talks. There has been capability of self-defense. It did not no direct response from North Korea to mention when the meeting took place. Biegun’s entreaty. U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper said on Friday that he remains http://www.koreaherald.com/ hopeful the United States can restart view.php?ud=20191222000007&ACE_SEARCH=1 diplomacy with North Korea, as the clock ticks down to North Korea’s declared year- North Korea threat looms as end deadline for new U.S. concessions in China, Japan, South Korea leaders talks over its nuclear arsenal. meet https://in.reuters.com/article/northkorea-usa- Se Young Lee, Reuters, December 22, 2019 rights/north-korea-warns-u-s-could-pay-dearly- for-human-rights-criticism-idINKBN1YP022 The spectre of new confrontation between Pyongyang and Washington hangs over NK leader presides over expanded meetings between China, Japan and South Korea this week, with growing risks North Central Military Commission Korean actions could end an uneasy meeting of Workers’ Party detente and upend recent diplomatic Yonhap, Korea Herald, December 22, 2019 efforts. South Korean President Moon Jae- in and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo North Korean leader Kim Jong-un presided Abe are expected to meet Chinese over an enlarged meeting of the Central President Xi Jinping separately on Military Commission of the ruling Workers’ Monday. They will then travel to the Party and discussed “important southwestern city of Chengdu for a organizational and political measures and trilateral meeting with Chinese Premier Li military steps to bolster up” the armed fores, Keqiang. Though they are expected to state media said Sunday. The meeting was discuss various economic matters, North held amid heightened tensions with the Korea appears likely to dominate the United States with Pyongyang threatening agenda. to seek a “new way” unless Washington comes up with a acceptable proposal in their Pyongyang has grown increasingly nuclear negotiations by end of the year. frustrated that its halt of nuclear and long- “Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un gave range missile tests has not ended the analysis and briefing on the complicated crippling economic sanctions against it. It internal and external situation and said that set a Dec. 31 deadline for the United States the meeting would decide on important to make concessions, but Washington has organizational and political measures and been unmoved. military steps to bolster up the overall armed https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-japan- forces of the country,” the Korean Central southkorea/north-korea-threat-looms-as-china- News Agency said. japan-south-korea-leaders-meet- “Also discussed were important issues for idUSKBN1YQ01T decisive improvement of the overall national defence and core matters for the sustained and accelerated development of military capability for self-defence,” it added. The 44 Volume 12, Number 1 January 15, 2019

North Korea’s Kim holds military southkorea/stalled-talks-with-us-not-good-for- meeting as tension rises under north-korea-south-korea-tells-china- idUSKBN1YR01V looming deadline Reuters, December 22, 2019 North Korea leaning toward China North Korean leader Kim Jong Un held a and Russia as it defies U.S. meeting of top military officials to discuss The Asahi Shimbun, December 23, 2019 boosting the country’s military capability, state news agency reported on Sunday amid A North Korean worker counts his cash heightened concern the North may be about at Vladivostok Airport in Russia’s Far East to return to confrontation with Washington. on the morning of Dec. 20. Behind him are Kim presided over an enlarged meeting of other North Korean workers lining up to the ruling Workers’ Party’s Central Military pay excess baggage charges. A black Commission, KCNA news agency said, to market money changer was doing a discuss steps “to bolster up the overall armed roaring business at Vladivostok Airport in forces of the country ... militarily and Russia’s Far East on Dec. 20 as nearly 100 politically.” North Korean workers loaded up with luggage waited to board a flight home to “Also discussed were important issues for Pyongyang. The group was leaving ahead decisive improvement of the overall national of a Dec. 22 deadline for countries to send defence and core matters for the sustained back North Korean workers under a U.N. and accelerated development of military resolution two years ago aimed at reining capability for self-defence,” KCNA said. It in Pyongyang’s missile and nuclear did not give details on when the meeting was programs. held nor what was decided. http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/ https://in.reuters.com/article/northkorea-missiles/ AJ201912230051.html north-koreas-kim-holds-military-meeting-as- tension-rises-under-looming-deadline- New construction seen at missile- idINKBN1YQ03T related site in North Korea U.S., North Korea talks ‘more AP News, December 24, 2019 important than anything’, South A new satellite image of a factory where Korea tells China North Korea makes military equipment used to launch long-range missiles shows Ben Blanchard, Reuters, December 23, 2019 the construction of a new structure. The It is “more important than anything” to keep release of several images from Planet Labs up the momentum for talks between the comes amid concern that North Korea United States and North Korea, South could launch a rocket or missile as it seeks Korean President Moon Jae-in told Chinese concessions in stalled nuclear negotiations President Xi Jinping in Beijing on Monday. with the United States. North Korea has North Korea has set a year-end deadline for warned that what “Christmas gift” it gives the United States to change what it says is a the U.S. depends on what action policy of hostility amid a stalemate in efforts Washington takes. One of the satellite to make progress on their pledge to end the images taken on Dec. 19 shows the North’s nuclear program and establish completion of a new structure at the lasting peace. North Korean leader Kim Jong March 16 Factory near Pyongyang, where Un and U.S. President Donald Trump have North Korea is believed to be developing met three times since June 2018, but there and manufacturing vehicles used as has been no substantive progress in dialogue mobile launchers for long-range ballistic while the North demanded crushing missiles. international sanctions be lifted first. Jeffrey Lewis, director of the East Asia https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-japan- nonproliferation program at the 45 Nuclear, Missile & Space Digest

Middlebury Institute, said in an email that Pyongyang could resume major the construction seemed to be an expansion provocations such as an intercontinental of the factory, which would be “big news.” ballistic missile launch in protest over the North Korea used what appeared to be stalled nuclear talks. The source noted that vehicles imported from China during its the North may need to restart negotiations three flight tests of the Hwasong-14 and -15 to seek sanctions relief for its economic intercontinental ballistic missiles in 2017, development ahead of big political events Lewis said. An increased capacity to next year such as the 75th anniversary of produce mobile launchers would potentially the founding of its ruling Workers’ Party. help expand North Korea’s ICBM force and improve its survivability during nuclear http://www.koreaherald.com/ conflict. Lewis said, as far as he knows, view.php?ud=20191226000758&ACE_SEARCH=1 North Korea only imported six of the vehicles that were used during the 2017 NK propaganda outlet denounces ICBM tests. “I would think North Korea US surveillance operations would want 50-100 such systems,” he said. Yonhap, Korea Herald, December 26, 2019 “This would probably be some mix of ICBMs we have seen and the new system that A North Korean propaganda outlet on North Korea claims is under development.” Thursday denounced stepped-up surveillance by the United States and https://apnews.com/ South Korea of military targets in the 2d79b8eae45f6adcaab193f48024e7e5 communist nation, saying the country is closely watching such “provocative” NK may consider timing of nuclear moves. The US and South Korea have been talks amid uncertainty in US on high alert in recent days amid growing politics: source concerns that the North could conduct a major provocation, such as launching an Yonhap, Korea Herald, December 26, 2019 intercontinental ballistic missile, in protest North Korea has reasons to keep up nuclear over stalled nuclear talks. Between talks with the United States, but it may Tuesday and Wednesday, the US flew consider their timing based on its assessment four spy planes over the Korean Peninsula of the political fortunes of US President at the same time amid concern the North Donald Trump, who faces an impeachment could fire an ICBM as a “Christmas gift” trial, a source said Thursday. Though the to the US. On Monday, South Korea also Senate trial is expected to result in Trump’s brought in its first advanced unmanned acquittal on charges of obstruction of aircraft, Global Hawk. congress and abuse of power, the North Meari, a North Korean propaganda outlet, could wait until the political footing of the criticized the US and South Korea for Trump administration becomes firmer, the engaging in “constant surveillance” on its source said on condition of anonymity. military installations, introducing US Pyongyang has been concerned that the fighter jets and strengthening their submission of a list of its nuclear weapons, military readiness against Pyongyang. materials and related sites — a key “We are fully ready for any situations no denuclearization step demanded by the US matter what direction the US’ oppressive — could be tantamount to making them scheme against North Korea would go,” potential targets for attack absent clear it said. “We are closely watching hostile security assurances. Taking such a step forces’ provocative schemes. They should when the fate of the incumbent US know that our patience also has a limit.” government remains uncertain would be a The website, in particular, criticized South key concern for the communist regime, a Korea for “jumping on the bandwagon of reason why it may now be “taking a the US’ oppressive scheme,” calling for its breather,” the source pointed out. The restraint and warning of “terrible remarks came amid growing concerns that 46 Volume 12, Number 1 January 15, 2019

consequences.” North Korea has threatened “aggressive measures” to ensure to take a “new way” if Washington fails to sovereignty at the uncommonly long come up with a new proposal in plenary meeting to the North’s ruling denuclearization talks before the end of this party. North Korean media reported year, hinting that it otherwise will end Monday that Kim called for “proactive diplomacy and revert to provocative and aggressive measures to guarantee the behavior. Speculation has arisen that the country’s sovereignty and security North might test-fire an intercontinental befitting to the established political ballistic missile since it earlier conducted conditions,” on Sunday, the second day what are presumed to be rocket engines tests of the plenary meeting of the Central at its west coast satellite launch site. Committee of the Workers’ Party of Korea.

http://www.koreaherald.com/ The KCNA also said that Kim discussed view.php?ud=20191226000090&ACE_SEARCH=1 the roles the party organs concerned with overseas projects, the defense industry and Kim Jong Un urges ‘positive and military should play to that end. The report offensive’ security measures ahead went on to say that Kim provided detailed of nuclear talks deadline analysis of foreign and defense policies, and proposed “practical measures for Hyonhee Shin, Reuters, December 30, 2019 strengthening the country’s independent economy.” The lack of details on the North North Korean leader Kim Jong Un called for Korean report on the “aggressive “positive and offensive measures” to ensure measures” is fanning speculations that the the country’s security before a year-end North may be mulling resuming a hostile deadline he has set for denuclearization talks stance against Seoul and Washington. A with the United States, state media KCNA day earlier, the KCNA had reported that said on Monday. Kim convened a weekend “important policy issues for achieving a meeting of top Workers’ Party officials to new victory for our revolution” and the discuss policy matters amid rising tension direction the North will take under current over his deadline for Washington to soften political circumstances were discusses on its stance in stalled negotiations aimed at the first day of the meeting. dismantling Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile programs. http://www.koreaherald.com/ view.php?ud=20191230000627&ACE_SEARCH=1 At a Sunday session, Kim suggested action in the areas of foreign affairs, the munitions industry and armed forces, stressing the Kim calls for ‘diplomatic, military need to take “positive and offensive countermeasures’ ahead of end-of- measures for fully ensuring the sovereignty year deadline and security of the country,” KCNA said, Yonhap without elaborating. Korea Herald, December 31, 2019 https://in.reuters.com/article/northkorea-missiles/ kim-jong-un-urges-positive-and-offensive- North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has security-measures-ahead-of-nuclear-talks-deadline- called for “diplomatic and military idINKBN1YY04C countermeasures” for preserving the country’s sovereignty and security during Kim Jong-un stresses ‘aggressive an ongoing Workers’ Party meeting, state measures’ for security media reported Tuesday, ahead of the impending expiry of Pyongyang’s end-of- Choi He-suk, Korea Herald, December 30, year deadline for US concessions. He made 2019 the calls at the third-day session of the plenary meeting of the Central Committee South Korean authorities are closely of the North’s ruling Workers Party on monitoring North Korea, following North Monday, according to the Korean Central Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s mention of 47 Nuclear, Missile & Space Digest

News Agency. The meeting came as North Biegun proposes meeting with Korea has threatened to take a “new way” North Korean counterparts in denuclearization talks if Washington fails to come up with an acceptable proposal Park Han-na, Korea Herald, December 16, before the end of this year, hinting it would 2019 otherwise end diplomacy and revert to US Special Representative for North Korea provocative acts. Stephen Biegun on Monday proposed a meeting with North Korean officials Kim urged party members to prepare during his visit to Seoul, saying “positive and offensive political, diplomatic and military countermeasures for firmly Washington is willing to discuss all issues of interest to Pyongyang if they resume preserving the sovereignty and security of denuclearization talks. He said it was “not the country, intensifying the combat against too late” for North Korea to choose a anti-socialist and non-socialist acts,” the KCNA said. “He made a comprehensive “better way,” following the regime’s second “crucial” test at its long-range report on the work of the Central Committee rocket launch site Friday. The test may of the WPK, state building, economic have been an attempt to advance development and building of the armed forces for seven hours at the plenary technology for intercontinental ballistic missiles that could potentially reach the meeting,” it added. Kim called for the party’s continental US. stepped-up efforts to foster its leadership ability and turn itself into a “militant party http://www.koreaherald.com/ full of vitality and vigor.” The KCNA said view.php?ud=20191216000607&ACE_SEARCH=1 that a process has started to draw up the draft resolution of relevant agenda items FOC assessment for OPCON being discussed. It added that the plenary transfer is most important task meeting “goes on,” suggesting an additional session will take place. next year: defense minister Jo He-rim, Korea Herald, December 16, http://www.koreaherald.com/ view.php?ud=20191231000057&ACE_SEARCH=1 2019 Defense Minister Jeong Kyeong-doo called L. South Korea Monday for the military to thoroughly prepare for next year’s assessment for the Biegun arrives in Seoul amid transfer of wartime operational control deadlock in NK-US nuclear talks from Washington. Presiding over the second meeting to assess the military’s Jo He-rim, Korea Herald, December 15, 2019 preparedness for the envisioned OPCON Pyongyang says it conducted “another transfer, Jeong highlighted the military crucial test” at Sohae site. US Special should be aware that the most important Representative for North Korea Stephen task next year is to successfully complete Biegun arrived in Seoul on Sunday for a the Full Operational Capability “close coordination” with allies amid the assessment. deadlock in the denuclearization talks with Pyongyang just weeks before the communist Seoul and Washington have been working regime’s year-end deadline. A day before, together to transfer OPCON. In 2014, they North Korea issued statements to announce set three conditions that need to be fulfilled that it had carried out “another crucial test” for OPCON to be completely transferred at a satellite launching site, warning the to South Korea. The three conditions are: United States to “hold off” any action to Seoul’s capability to lead the allies’ “rattle” the regime. combined defense mechanism; its capacity for initial responses to the North’s nuclear http://www.koreaherald.com/ and missile threats; and a stable security view.php?ud=20191215000133&ACE_SEARCH=1 48 Volume 12, Number 1 January 15, 2019

environment on the peninsula and in the Pyongyang back to the negotiating table, region. as it has been pressuring Washington to make concessions by the end of the year, http://www.koreaherald.com/ with hints that it could engage in view.php?ud=20191216000772&ACE_SEARCH=1 provocative acts such as a long-range rocket launch. Prospects dim for US-N. Korea nuclear talks: ministry Appearing at Gimpo International Airport in western Seoul, the US envoy waved Park Han-na, Korea Herald, December 17, away questions from reporters. His South 2019 Korean counterpart Lee Do-hoon rode in Prospects are dim for denuclearization talks the same car with Biegun to the airport in between the US and North Korea next year, a show of close coordination between the with the possibility of the communist regime allies on efforts to resume the hitherto escalating military tension, the South Korean unproductive negotiations with the North. government said Tuesday. “If there is no On Monday, Biegun said that the United progress in North Korea-US negotiations by States has no deadline while stressing the the year-end deadline, the possibility of “goal” of fulfilling the commitments that North Korea’s leader declaring the US President Donald Trump and North suspension of the talks in his New Year’s Korean leader Kim Jong-un made during address cannot be ruled out,” the their first historic summit in Singapore in Unification Ministry said in a press release June last year. on its evaluation of the situation involving http://www.koreaherald.com/ North Korea in 2019 and the outlook for view.php?ud=20191217000820&ACE_SEARCH=1 2020.

North Korea has repeatedly urged Seoul likely to send troops to Washington to return to the negotiating table Strait of Hormuz with a more flexible proposal, such as the Kim So-hyun, Korea Herald, December 18, lifting of sanctions and the halt of South 2019 Korea-US joint military exercises, by the end of the year. The US asserts that it has offered The South Korean government is likely to creative ways to proceed, with feasible steps send military forces to join a US-led and flexibility in negotiations, which seem multinational coalition to defend the Strait to have fallen short of meeting Pyongyang’s of Hormuz early next year. According to demands. In light of the circumstances, the military sources, the 4,400-ton destroyer Unification Ministry said the North may Wang Geon of the Cheonghae anti-piracy heighten military tension on the Korean unit is scheduled to leave Busan late this Peninsula. month to relieve the destroyer Kang Gam- chan which is currently operating in the http://www.koreaherald.com/ Gulf of Aden. The Wang Geon is expected view.php?ud=20191217000756&ACE_SEARCH=1 to arrive in the Gulf of Aden in mid- January, and start anti-piracy operations Biegun wraps up trip to S. Korea and escorting vessels from February. with his call for NK dialogue unanswered Sources said the South Korean government is likely to join the coalition, Yonhap, Korea Herald, December 17, 2019 known as the International Maritime Security Construct, by changing the Wang US Special Representative for North Korea Geon’s operation region to the Strait of Stephen Biegun on Tuesday wrapped up his Hormuz. three-day visit to Seoul and departed for Japan, with his emphatic call for dialogue http://www.koreaherald.com/ with North Korea unanswered. His high- view.php?ud=20191218000642&ACE_SEARCH=1 profile trip focused on efforts to bring 49 Nuclear, Missile & Space Digest

Moon to hold summit with Xi next Biegun suggests US remains open week amid stalled NK nuke talks to talks with N. Korea Yonhap, Korea Herald, December 19 Yonhap, Korea Herald, December 21, 2019 South Korean President Moon Jae-in will US Special Representative for North Korea hold a summit with his Chinese counterpart, Stephen Biegun returned to Washington Xi Jinping, next week when he visits China on Friday after a dayslong trip to South for annual trilateral talks with Chinese and Korea, Japan and China, suggesting he Japanese leaders, Moon’s office said remains open to meeting with North Thursday. The Moon-Xi summit will take Korean officials to discuss the country’s place on Dec. 23 in Beijing, where the two denuclearization. Biegun arrived at Dulles leaders will discuss ways to promote International Airport on a flight from bilateral ties and the Korea peace process, Beijing after what would have been an according to Cheong Wa Dae. The meeting impromptu meeting with the North comes as North Korea has threatened to take Koreans apparently did not materialize. a “new way” if the United States does not The special representative traveled to the put forward concessions in their stalled region as tensions have risen over North nuclear talks by the end of this year. Korea’s threats to resume nuclear or long- range missile tests unless the United States http://www.koreaherald.com/ offers concessions to break their deadlock view.php?ud=20191219000390&ACE_SEARCH=1 in denuclearization talks before the end of the year. “You heard what I said in South S. Korean firm shortlisted for Korea and those remarks stand,” Biegun Bulgarian nuclear plant project said when asked whether he met the North Korean delegation in Beijing. While in Yonhap, Korea Herald, December 20, 2019 Seoul earlier this week, the special The South Korean energy firm, along with representative made a public offer to meet Russia’s Rosatom and the China National with the North Koreans, saying it was time Nuclear Corporation, were selected as for the two sides to “do our jobs” and work strategic candidates for the new nuclear toward an agreement. energy plant project in northern Bulgaria, its ministry said. The decision was based on http://www.koreaherald.com/ the candidates’ experience in building view.php?ud=20191221000037&ACE_SEARCH=1 nuclear plants along with their financial capabilities, it added. France-based N. Korea may launch ‘maximum Framatom SAS and US General Electric gray-zone’ provocations for US were also chosen as candidates to supply concessions in 2020: expert equipment for the project. Yonhap, Korea Herald, December 26, 2019 The ministry plans to make preparations to North Korea could launch maximum receive binding offers from the candidates “gray-zone” provocations next year just by the end of next month. The candidates short of an intercontinental ballistic missile will then have six months to hand in an offer. launch to extract US concessions in their Bulgaria currently operates a nuclear plant stalled nuclear talks, an expert said in Kozloduy, whose lifespan was supposed Thursday. Jun Bong-geun, professor at the to end in 2021 but was extended for 10 years state-run Korea National Diplomatic on a lack of other options. South Korea, Academy, made the remarks amid which has been seeking to reduce speculation that the North could engage dependence on fossil fuels and nuclear in provocative acts in a show of anger over power at home, is currently making efforts the absence of US concessions by to win nuclear plant projects overseas Pyongyang’s self-imposed year-end instead. deadline. http://www.koreaherald.com/ “Though strong provocations are view.php?ud=20191220000101&ACE_SEARCH=1 50 Volume 12, Number 1 January 15, 2019

expected, the North may not go all the way power reactors in operation by 2030. The to an ICBM launch, as the launch could approvals were received under the make it difficult for Pyongyang to secure framework of the technical cooperation support from China and Russia,” Jun said programme between Uzbekistan and the during a briefing on the outlook of global IAEA. The programme provides for the politics for 2020 by the KNDA Institute of strengthening of nuclear and radiation Foreign Affairs and National Security. safety in the operation of nuclear facilities in Uzbekistan, the development and http://www.koreaherald.com/ implementation of modern nuclear view.php?ud=20191226000690&ACE_SEARCH=1 technologies in medicine and other sectors of the economy, as well as the Unification minister proposes dissemination of nuclear knowledge. ‘tentative deal’ for NK nuclear impasse In Uzbekistan, the project executors are: UzAtom, an agency created in July last Ahn Sung-mi, Korea Herald, December 27, year to manage the government’s nuclear 2019 power programme; the State Committee for Industrial Safety; the Institute of Expressing regret over stalled inter-Korean Nuclear Physics; the National University relations, South Korean Unification Minister of Uzbekistan; Samarkand State Kim Yeon-chul stressed the need to seek University; and Tashkent City Oncology “modus vivendi,” or a tentative deal, as a Centre. Uzbekistan has worked closely solution to break the impasse in the nuclear with the IAEA on its atomic energy negotiations between the US and North programme during 2019, Uzatom said, Korea. “With North Korea’s looming adding that these approvals have deadline for negotiations, the situation on “deepened and strengthened” the Korean Peninsula hereafter is very Uzbekistan’s relationship with the IAEA. uncertain. Concerned countries share the The agency said it looks forward to closer severity of the circumstances, and are collaboration with the IAEA on the undertaking various diplomatic endeavors development of reguation. “Uzatom at this moment,” Kim told reporters at a believes that the stronger its regulator is, year-end press conference held in Seoul on the safer and more successful its atomic Thursday. “In order to prevent the situation energy programme will be.” from worsening and gain momentum for negotiations, we need a tentative deal that http://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/IAEA- could be a stepping stone to reach a final approves-four-projects-for-Uzbekistan agreement, the wisdom of modus vivendi.”

http://www.koreaherald.com/ Is a New Nuclear Age Upon Us? view.php?ud=20191227000509&ACE_SEARCH=1 Nicholas L. Miller and Vipin Narang, Foreign Affairs, December 30, 2019 M. Misc A year ago, it was clear that a storm was IAEA approves four projects for brewing on the nuclear horizon. Writing Uzbekistan in Foreign Affairs in January, we warned that “the United States could find itself in World Nuclear News, December 17, 2019 not one but three nuclear crises in the next Four projects aimed at building up 12 months.” We pointed to the risk that Uzbekistan’s technical capacity, human negotiations with North Korea would resources, developing nuclear infrastructure, break down, that arms control between and strengthening nuclear and radiation the United States and Russia would safety have been approved by the further deteriorate, and that Iran would International Atomic Energy Agency’s begin violating its commitments under the (IAEA’s) board of governors. The Central 2015 nuclear deal. Asian country aims to have two nuclear Looking back, it is clear that we missed 51 Nuclear, Missile & Space Digest

the mark—by being too optimistic. Over the India’s National Cybersecurity past year, Washington has not only faced Policy Must Acknowledge Modern nuclear crises with North Korea, Russia, and Realities Iran, as predicted; it has also watched as nuclear-armed rivals India and Pakistan Prateek Waghre and Shibani Mehta, The stumbled to the brink of all-out war and a Diplomat, December 20, 2019 host of U.S. allies began to rethink their Earlier this year, it was discovered that nuclear options. Unless governments in India was the target of two cyberattacks Washington and elsewhere act quickly to in the same month. The malware attacks reverse course, future scholars may look at the Kundankulam Nuclear Power Plant back on 2019 as the turning point from an and the Indian Space Research era of relative calm to one of intense nuclear Organization (ISRO) are believed to be the competition and proliferation—the dawn of outcomes of phishing attempts on a dangerous new nuclear age. employees. In 2018, it was reported that https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2019-12- an officer of the Indian Air Force was 30/new-nuclear-age-upon-us sharing sensitive information on Facebook with two women who had honey-trapped N. Op-Ed him. None of these incidents are known to have resulted in severe harm, but the India possibility that they could have is reason enough for India to cultivate and shape Meet India’s Fighter Jet Armed international discussions on cyberspace. With Supersonic Nuclear Missiles As is the case with both international Zachary Keck, National Interest Blog, terrorism and protection of the December 18, 2019 environment, cooperation is a prerequisite Pairing a supersonic missile with a jet fighter to deal with cyberthreats given their strengthens one leg of India’s nuclear triad. borderless nature. India’s National Cyber India’s nuclear command has begun Security Policy (2013) did not assign much receiving fighter jets armed with the weight to this aspect and defined no country’s most advanced, supersonic cruise measurable outcomes against which missile. According to media reports, India’s progress could be judged. With its Strategic Forces Command (SFC) has begun upcoming National CyberSecurity Policy receiving 42 Su-30MKI air dominance (2020-2025), India has the opportunity to fighters modified to carry air-launched align its domestic policy with its global BrahMos supersonic cruise missile. This will aspirations. significantly enhance the striking power of https://thediplomat.com/2019/12/indias- the air leg of India’s nuclear triad. national-cybersecurity-policy-must-acknowl- edge-modern-realities/ The Sukhoi Su-30 MKI is a twin-seater, highly maneuverable, fourth-generation Pakistan multirole combat fighter aircraft built by Russia’s Sukhoi Design Bureau and licensed Pakistan Cannot Get Enough Of to India’s Hindustan Aeronautics Limited. America’s F-16 Fighting Falcon The plane will serve as the backbone of India’s Air Force through 2020 and beyond. Sebastien Roblin, National Interest Blog, Delhi has already acquired around 200 jets, December 21, 2019 and eventually plans to acquire 282 of them. Recent aerial skirmishes highlight the https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/meet-indias- important capabilities F-16s continue to fighter-jet-armed-supersonic-nuclear-missiles- provide Pakistan’s military. During an 106291 aerial skirmish on February 27, 2019, an Indian Air Force MiG-21 Bison was shot 52 Volume 12, Number 1 January 15, 2019

down by a radar-guided missile. The was, unsurprisingly, laden with Pakistani Air Force (PAF) claims the kill was foreboding and a strong sense of urgency scored by a JF-17 Thunder, a domestically- on taking robust climate action. built fighter built with Chinese assistance. Proclaiming a transition to an electricity system powered by 100% renewables is Today, Pakistan operates around sixty-six seemingly the latest fashion, and prevalent F-16A/Bs and nineteen F-16C/Ds in four in contemporary discourse. However, the active squadrons, including No. 9 Griffins Economist Intelligence Unit’s recently multi-role squadron in Sargodha, the No. 19 published Industries in Sherdills training and air defense squadron 2020 report concluded that generation at Thatta, and the No. 11 Arrows multi-role from renewables is not increasing fast squadron based at Shahbaz near Jacobabad. enough to keep global warming within the The last base also hosts No. 5 Falcons multi- goals set in the Paris Agreement. With role squadron, the only F-16C/D unit. batteries large enough to support a modern economy for days - let alone weeks https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/pakistan- - remaining elusive, and coal falling out of cannot-get-enough-americas-f-16-fighting-falcon- 106656 favour, the modern economy requires other, more reliable, energy sources.

USA In this vacuum, opportunists have entered Talk With Iran Now. Time Is the field. Some of the biggest cheerleaders for renewables are, paradoxically enough, Fleeting. the fossil gas companies. Some of these Vali R. Nasr and Ali Vaez, The New York have embarked on flashy public relations Times, December 19, 2019 campaigns, proudly proclaiming that renewables, heavily backed by ‘natural’ The momentous protests in Iran this autumn gas, is the path to a low-carbon future. came at a delicate time in a tense standoff between the United States and Iran. Despite http://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/View- the recent prisoner swap, officials in point-Only-the-atom,-not-fossil-gas,-can-deliv Washington may see the prospects for diplomacy dimming. But that would be Congress’s Christmas gift to wrong. Iranian elections are coming, and Trump: A new nuclear weapon without any American agreement to relent on sanctions, the current relatively John Tierney, The Hill, December 24, 2019 conciliatory government might well lose all In reaction to the Trump administration’s its influence in favor of far more inept negotiating process on confrontational hard-liners. That calculus denuclearization, the North Koreans have makes this exactly the time to take threatened to send an ominous “Christmas diplomacy seriously. While the opportunity gift.” Unfortunately, Americans are for success may be slim, failing to reverse already certain to get a different rising tensions now risks a serious escalation nightmarish present, compliments of the in frictions that would be more impervious U.S. Congress. Absent convincing logic or to diplomacy down the road. reason, and against the House of https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/19/opinion/ Representative’s inclinations, legislators overwhelmingly decided to provide talk-iran-now-time-fleeting.html President Donald Trump with a new nuclear warhead — one that his Viewpoint: Only the atom, not fossil administration thinks is “more usable.” gas, can deliver robust climate Indeed, upon signing the Fiscal Year 2020 action National Defense Authorization Act, this president — only the third in U.S. history World Nuclear News, December 19, 2019 to be impeached for high crimes and The rhetoric from many world leaders at the misdemeanors — will be in the position to climate summit in Madrid 53 Nuclear, Missile & Space Digest

gain control over the new nuclear weapon Russia he first requested in 2018, a submarine- launched “low-yield” warhead. Roscosmos plans 20 launches of Soyuz rocket in 2020 The United States has the most sophisticated conventional and nuclear arsenals in the TASS News Agency, December 16, 2019 world, with capabilities to respond to any Twenty launches of the Soyuz carrier limited use of nuclear weapons in multiple rocket are planned for 2020, according to ways, including a thousand existing low- a video shared by state space corporation yield options that can be delivered by air. In Roscosmos Director General Dmitry fact, Congress and the last two Rogozin at a press conference at the administrations have already devoted Vostochny cosmodrome on Monday. billions of dollars to ensure these assets can “Twenty launches of the Soyuz carrier effectively penetrate the most advanced air rocket,” according to the video. It was also defenses. Based on existing bipartisan- noted in the video that the work on the supported plans, those investments are sure construction of carriers is in full swing. As to continue. of now 22 flight vehicles have lifted off in https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/ 2019, among them Soyuz-2 rockets of 475794-congresss-christmas-gift-to-trump-a-new- various modifications and Rokot. That nuclear-weapon number includes three manned launches and one unpiloted launch of manned With China, the US must avoid a spacecraft. repeat of its disastrous war in https://tass.com/science/1099675 Afghanistan Chi Wang, South China Morning Post, Russian scientists ready to design December 28, 2019 reusable space launch system in 8 years In 1953, while studying agriculture at the University of Maryland, I received a draft TASS News Agency, December 17, 2019 notice. Like thousands of young Americans, Russian scientists are ready to build a I was being drafted by the United States for reusable space launch system with a single- service in the Korean war. Although I was stage-to-orbit carrier rocket in eight years, not an American citizen at the time, the the director of the Polytechnic Institute of military planned to use my Chinese- the South Urals State University, which language skills by having me interrogate takes part in the project, said. “We have captured Chinese soldiers detained in South passed the stage of technical design report Korea. That war ended in June 1953, before and, by now, three variants of the I could fulfil such a function. It would be spacecraft have been designed. If we start the last time American and Chinese soldiers working in 2020, a prototype of a carrier met directly in combat, but it was far from rocket should be ready by 2028. It will take the end of American military action in the five years to design the [launch] platform post-WWII era. and eight years - for the entire system,” Critics have frequently derided the US for Sergei Vaulin said. being in a ”constant state of war” since The system can be used for building World War II. From a purely legal modular orbital stations or delivering standpoint, this is not true. The US has not cargo to the International Space Station declared war on any country since 1942, (ISS). The project, codenamed Korona, when war was declared on Bulgaria, was ran by the Makeyev State Rocket Hungary and Romania. Center between 1992 and 2012, but was https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/ suspended due to lack of financing. In 3043627/china-us-must-avoid-repeat-its-disas- 2017, the center suggested resuming it. In trous-war-afghanistan November 2019, the South Urals State 54 Volume 12, Number 1 January 15, 2019

University said its scientists were ready to A defense industry source said “that the join the project. first two UR-100N UTTKh intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) https://tass.com/science/1100033 outfitted with the Avangard nuclear boost-glide vehicle would go on Russia replaces orbital missile experimental combat duty in late early warning system with new November - early December in the satellites Dombarovsky division of the Strategic Missile Force,” according to Russian news TASS News Agency, December 18, 2019 agency TASS. TASS also noted that Russia has replaced its Oko-1 orbital missile another defense industry source said in early warning system with new Kupol October 2018 that “two Avangard satellites, according to the materials for a regiments with six silo-based missiles each briefing by Chief of the Russian General Staff were due to assume combat duty in Army General Valery Gerasimov who spoke Russia.” And in December 2018, Sergei at a meeting with foreign military attaches Karakayev, chief of the Strategic Missile on Tuesday. In his presentation, the chief of Force, said that Avangard be deployed Russia’s General Staff demonstrated slides with the Dombarovsky missile division in that showed the structure of the country’s the Orenburg Region in 2019. Orenburg missile early warning system. Specifically, is a city in southwest Russia near the the slides showed a satellite with the caption: border with Kazakhstan. satellite of the Kupol integrated space https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/look-out- system. america-russias-hypersonic-avangard-nuclear- The general noted at the presentation that missile-going-live-106771 in 2019 Russia launched another satellite of the integrated space system, which U.S. Submarines Are Getting New enhanced its capabilities for detecting W76-2 Tactical Nuclear Warheads ballistic missile launches. Russia’s Defense (And It Might Be a Giant Mistake) Ministry earlier reported that the new system’s satellites were called Tundra. The Sebastien Roblin, National Interest Blog, December 21, 2019 first such satellite was launched in 2015. The Oko-1 orbital grouping comprised eight It was a small, obscure-sounding item in satellites and ceased to operate in 2014. As the 2020 defense budget—a mere $19.6 of now, the new orbital grouping comprises million to procure W76-2 warheads, a sum three satellites, including the space vehicle which could pay for just one quarter of a orbited this year. Overall, nine new satellites single F-35A stealth fighter. But it, along are set to be launched by 2022. with a select few other items including plans for a Space Force and border wall https://tass.com/science/1100559 funding, generated such controversy that Senate Republicans and House Democrats Look Out America: Russia’s spent three additional months hashing out Hypersonic Avangard Nuclear a compromise defense budget after Missile Is Going Live striking an initial deal this summer.

Michael Peck, National Interest Blog, Ultimately, the House conceded on most December 20, 2019 of its defense policy priorities—meaning The U.S. withdrawal from the INF funding will continue flowing to deploy agreement has spurred fears that the W76-2 nuclear warheads Washington and Moscow will revive the manufactured by the Pantex plant in costly and dangerous Cold War nuclear Texas. The W76-2 is a less powerful variant arms race. “This missile system is set to go of the W76-1 warhead deployed on 13.5- on combat alert in December 2019,” Russia’s meter-tall Trident II ballistic missiles Ministry of Defense announced. 55 Nuclear, Missile & Space Digest

deployed on the U.S. Navy’s Ohio-class submarine ‘Belgorod’ was modified “for submarines. Whereas the four 90- or 100- special purposes” and widely believed to kiloton independently reentering warheads be the intended carrier of the Poseidon carried on a standard Trident each explode weapon system. The large long-range with six times the force of the Little Boy robotic nuclear vehicle is part of Russia’s uranium bomb that killed over 60,000 effort to counter the US development of Japanese at Hiroshima, the 5 to 7 kiloton anti-ballistic missile technologies and is W76-2 has an explosive yield a third or half currently undergoing trials. The 184-meter that of the Hiroshima blast. long submarine will reportedly be able to carry as many as four Poseidon drones and https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/us-subma- is one of two vessels designated for the rines-are-getting-new-w76-2-tactical-nuclear- purpose. warheads-and-it-might-be-giant https://www.rt.com/russia/476473-belgorod- Russia to launch new Angara carrier submarine-poseidon-drone/ rocket in 2020 How The U.S. Navy Remains The TASS News Agency, December 23, 2019 Masters Of Modular Nuclear Russia’s State Space Corporation Roscosmos Reactors intends to launch a new Angara carrier rocket in 2020, the Roscosmos press office James Conca, Forbes, December 23, 2019 told TASS on Monday. The Angara’s launch You might be aware of the 98 or so was previously scheduled for December commercial nuclear power reactors that 2019. “Next year, we are planning to resume produce about 20% of our electricity. But the launches of the Angara carrier rocket. there are another hundred nuclear The launch vehicle will be delivered by the reactors that power 86 submarines and Khrunichev Center in the first quarter of aircraft carriers, producing electricity, heat 2020,” the press office said. and propulsion. We think of small modular nuclear reactors as something new that All necessary organizational and will take nuclear power to a new level, and technological measures have been even marvel at the rollout of new iterations, scheduled to make the Angara a commercial like Russia’s new floating nuclear power spacecraft through the launch of its serial plant. But in truth, the U.S. Navy has been production in Omsk in Siberia. There are operating and perfecting SMRs for 75 plans to produce eight Angara-A5 rockets years. Work on nuclear marine propulsion (including its crewed version) and two light- started in the 1940s. In 1955, the first class Angara-1.2 carriers a year after the nuclear-powered submarine, the USS enterprise reaches its designed capacity, Nautilus, put to sea. This changed Roscosmos specified. submarines from slow underwater cigar https://tass.com/science/1102539 tubes to warships capable of sustaining 20- 25 knots submerged for weeks or months Russian Navy to get carrier for on end. By 1962, the U.S. Navy had 26 operational nuclear-powered nuclear super-torpedo Poseidon submarines with 30 more under next year – manufacturer construction. Russian Times, December 20, 2019 More and different classes of nuclear The submarine Belgorod, which may be submarines followed, along with nuclear armed with Russia’s much-anticipated aircraft carriers and other ships. The first nuclear drone Poseidon, will be one of four nuclear-powered carriers, the USS nuclear-propelled ships which the producer Enterprise completed in 1960, was plans to hand over to the Russian military powered by eight Westinghouse reactors. in 2020. The Oscar-class nuclear-propelled The USS Long Beach followed in 1961 as 56 Volume 12, Number 1 January 15, 2019

the first nuclear-powered cruiser with two out in the routine mode, the ministry reactors. added.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2019/12/ https://tass.com/science/1104117 23/americas-nuclear-navy-still-the-masters-of- nuclear-power/#417bf3d86bcd America Is Driving The Return Of Russia’s Nuclear “Dead Hand” Russia’s Meteor-M satellite hit by micrometeorite Michael Peck, National Interest Blog, December 29, 2019 TASS News Agency, December 24, 2019 Russia is acting out of fear that a U.S. first- One of Russia’s Meteor-M satellites has strike that would decapitate the Russian become uncontrollable following an external leadership before it could give the order impact, presumably a micrometeorite strike, to retaliate. Russia has a knack for Russia’s Roscosmos state space corporation developing weapons that—at least on said on its website on Tuesday. “On paper—are terrifying: nuclear-powered December 18, 2019, an emergency situation cruise missiles, robot subs with 100- caused by external influence (presumably, megaton warheads. Perhaps the most a micrometeorite) was reported on board terrifying was a Cold War doomsday Meteor-M (identification number 2-2) system that would automatically launch spacecraft,” the space agency said. “As a missiles—without the need for a human result, the parameters of the spacecraft’s to push the button—during a nuclear orbit were changed, and it entered the non- attack. But the system, known as directed flight mode with high angular “Perimeter” or “Dead Hand,” may be velocity.” After that, the spacecraft back and deadlier than ever. switched to energy-saving mode. When the satellite entered the Russian ground control This comes after the Trump administration zone and established contact with the announced that the United States is ground, efforts to restore its operations have withdrawing from the 1987 Intermediate- been launched. Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, which eliminated the once-massive American https://tass.com/science/1102815 and Russian stockpiles of short- and medium-range missiles. Donald Trump Satellites delivered to orbit by Briz- alleges that Russia has violated the treaty KM upper stage — Russian Defense by developing and deploying new, Ministry prohibited cruise missiles. TASS News Agency, December 27, 2019 https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/america- driving-return-russias-nuclear-dead-hand- The Briz-KM upper stage has delivered to 109206 the orbit the military satellite and the Gonets- M communications satellite, the Russian West Asia Defense Ministry told journalists on Friday. “The Rokot light carrier rocket that has been Iran launched earlier today, on December 27, at 2:11 a.m. Moscow time from the Plesetsk From Nuclear to NewClear cosmodrome (Arkhangelsk region), Chris Cook, Tehran Times, December 25, delivered three Gonets-M communications 2019 - 15:47 spacecraft and the spacecraft of the Russian Defense Ministry to the orbit at the assigned This election was fought and won by time,” the ministry said. Johnson’s Conservative party in order to “Get Brexit Done” so that the UK will now The launch of the Rokot rocket and delivery definitively – after three years of political of the spacecraft to the orbit were carried paralysis - leave the European Union. I believe this result to be positive for Iran 57 Nuclear, Missile & Space Digest

for two reasons, the first being Prime Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action Minister Johnson as a person, and the second (JCPOA). The nuclear deal allows Iran to being the new role and responsibilities of retain 1,044 centrifuges at Fordow, but Johnson’s office as UK Prime Minister in requires Tehran to convert the uranium- international diplomacy and commerce for enrichment facility into a medical isotope an independent UK. production and research center.

“Those are my principles, and if you don’t https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2019-12/news/ like them....well, I have others.....” Groucho iran-newly-breaches-nuclear-deal Marx. As with President Trump it is a mistake to view Prime Minister Johnson Israel through the lens of rational statecraft. Johnson combines intelligence, idleness and Does Israel Have Nuclear Missile pure expedience in equal measure. He owes Submarines? his success to his capacity to delegate Sebastien Roblin, December 17, 2019 strategy and responsibility to capable and diligent subordinates such as Dominic Jerusalem has to have someplace to store Cummings, the Grand Vizier to Johnson’s its alleged 80-300 nuclear weapons. Byzantine Caliph. Perhaps the most Unofficially, Tel Aviv wants everyone to important point for Iran’s decision-makers know it has them, and doesn’t hesitate to to bear in mind with PM Johnson is that, make thinly-veiled references to its like his father Stanley before him, he willingness to use them if confronted by genuinely likes and respects Iran and an existential threat. Estimates on the size Iranians, and the country’s great culture, of Tel Aviv’s nuclear stockpile range from history and heritage. So, all things being 80 to 300 nuclear weapons, the latter equal, the accession to power of Johnson as number exceeding China’s arsenal. a person is positive for Iran. Originally, Israel’s nuclear forces relied on https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/443393/ air-dropped nuclear bombs and Jericho Nuclear-deal-is-in-trouble-British-diplomat ballistic missiles. For example, when Egyptian and Syrian armies attacked Israel Iran Newly Breaches Nuclear Deal during the 1973 Yom Kippur War, a squadron of eight Israeli F-4 Phantom jets Arms Control Today, December 2019 loaded with nuclear bombs was placed on December 2019 By Kelsey Davenport alert by Prime Minister Golda Meir, ready European parties to the 2015 nuclear deal to unleash nuclear bombs on Cairo and that limits Iran’s nuclear program said Damascus should the Arab armies break Tehran’s decision to resume enriching through. uranium at its Fordow site makes diplomatic efforts to preserve the agreement and de- Though Israel is the only nuclear-armed escalate tensions more difficult. Iran has state in the Middle East, Tel Aviv is announced it is accumulating uranium preoccupied by the fear that an adversary enriched by more advanced technology, might one day attempt a first strike to including these IR-4 centrifuges. Iran has destroy its nuclear missiles and strike announced it is accumulating uranium planes on the ground before they can enriched by more advanced technology, retaliate. Currently, the only hostile states including these IR-4 centrifuges. likely to acquire such a capability are Iran or Syria. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani announced on Nov. 5 that Iran had “no https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/does- israel-have-nuclear-missile-submarines-105517 other choice” but to resume enrichment at Fordow, violating the 15-year prohibition on enrichment at that site put in place by the 58 Volume 12, Number 1 January 15, 2019

Can Israel combat Iran at the UN? Israel Defense Forces (IDF) official told me during a recent interview in Jerusalem. “It Yonah Jeremy Bob would be detrimental to both sides.” The Jerusalem Post, December 19, 2019 https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/middle- Despite US sanctions which started in east-disaster-nuclear-war-between-russia-and- August 2018 and kicked into full gear this israel-possible-108286 past May, support from Russia, China and a range of other countries has kept the Turkey Islamic republic afloat. Turkey Threatens to Close Key More than four years after the Iran nuclear U.S. Air Base That Houses Nuclear deal was signed and about 18 months after Bombs President Donald Trump pulled the US out of the deal, Iran is finally on the defensive Mark Episkopos, National Interest Blog, again at the UN. Since Trump pulled the US December 18, 2019 out in May 2018, the EU-3 have criticized In what may become the latest wedge in the US and mostly given moral support to Turkey-NATO relations since Ankara’s Iran, ignoring most of its problematic purchase of the Russian S-400 missile activities with ballistic missiles and in the system earlier this year, Turkish President Middle East. This all changed two weeks ago Tayyip Erdogan has threatened to shut when the EU-3 referred Iran to the UN down the Incirlik air base. “If it is Security Council for at least four separate necessary for us to take such a step, of violations of resolutions restricting it from course we have the authority ... If this is ballistic missile testing. necessary, together with our delegations, https://www.jpost.com/Opinion/With-EU- we will close down Incirlik if necessary,” support-Iran-issue-goes-to-the-UN-will-Israel- Erdogan told Turkish state television get-anywhere-611487 earlier this week. President Erdogan’s comments were Middle East Disaster: Nuclear War prompted by a recent Senate vote to Between Russia and Israel Is recognize the early 20th century massacres Possible and mass deportations of Armenians in the Ottoman Empire as a genocide, as well Michael Peck, National Interest Blog, as the ongoing prospect of Ankara’s S-400 December 24, 2019 deal being sanctioned under the 2017 Were the Israelis and Russians to come to Countering America’s Adversaries blows, or if Moscow were to seriously Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA). threaten military force against Israel, could the United States risk a grave loss of prestige Far more than merely a symbolic rift in the by not intervening to back its longtime ally? U.S.-Turkey defense relationship, the prospective closure of the Incirlik air base Israel remains determined to continue forebodes immediate and serious military pounding Iranian forces in Syria in a bid to repercussions for the U.S. The base, located keep Tehran’s forces away from Israel’s deep in southern Turkey off the northern border. At the same time, Russia mediterranean coastline, houses a 50-unit has thousands of troops in Syria that could stockpile of B61 nuclear bombs. A legacy be caught in the crossfire—or even become of Cold War-era nuclear deterrence belligerents if Moscow tires of its Syrian ally strategy, Incirlik remains the largest U.S. being pummeled. And if Israel and Russia nuclear weapons storage site in Europe. come to blows, would Israel’s big brother— But what used to be a forward post for a the United States—feel compelled to retaliatory strike against prospective Soviet intervene? Not that Jerusalem or Moscow encroachment into Western Europe, as are eager for such a fight. “Neither of us well as a crucial bargaining chip during desire a military confrontation,” a senior 59 Nuclear, Missile & Space Digest

the 1960’s Cuban Missile Crisis, is that it may terminate the use of these sites increasingly seen as a strategic liability amid by the U.S. is much deeper and concerns the stark downturn in U.S.-Turkish relations not only bilateral ties with Washington but over the past several years. also Ankara’s commitments to its NATO responsibilities. https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/turkey- threatens-close-key-us-air-base-houses-nuclear- http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/opinion/ bombs-106116 serkan-demirtas/chp-rules-out-sanctions- threats-on-turkey-us-ties-149966 CHP rules out sanctions, threats on Turkey-US ties East Asia Serkan Demirtaº, Hurriyet Daily News, North Korea December 18, 2019 Chief of KPA General Staff urges First, it was Foreign Minister Mevlüt US to watch its mouth Çavuþoðlu; then, it was President Recep Tayyip Erdoðan who said that Turkey may Pyongyang Times, December 16, 2019 shut down Ýncirlik military base and the “I am very glad that the DPRK Academy radar site in Kürecik, Malatya in retaliation of Defence Sciences is attaining great against a vote by the U.S. Congress that successes in building up defence paves the way for sanctioning Turkey over capabilities of the country as it successfully its military operation into Syria and carries out a series of tests of great purchase of Russian weaponry. significance,” Pak Jong Chon, chief of the Both the Ýncirlik base and the Kürecik radar General Staff of the Korean People’s site operate under separate bilateral Army, said last Saturday. He said that the agreements between Turkey and the United priceless data, experience and new States. The legal foundation of the Ýncirlik technologies gained through the recent base dates to 1980 when the two allies signed tests will be applied to another strategic the Defense and Economic Cooperation weapon programme of the DPRK aimed Agreement (DECA), although it was built at restraining and overpowering the US’ in the early 1950s. The base has long been nuclear threat in a definite and reliable regarded as the symbol of the Turkish- manner. Only when the balance of power American strategic partnership particularly is fully ensured, can genuine peace be through the Cold War. Plus, it’s believed the safeguarded and our development and facility still stores around 50 nuclear future be guaranteed, he added. “We have warheads stored up tremendous force.

The legality of the Kürecik radar site is based “We should be ready to cope with both on a memorandum of understanding the political and military provocations by two countries inked in September 2011. hostile forces and be familiar with both Although Kürecik has already been hosting dialogue and confrontation.” The KPA, he a radar site there since the 1950s, the new noted, is fully poised to carry through any agreement has allowed expanding the decision of the Supreme Leader with capacity of the base so that it could function action. Everyone is free to evaluate the as part of NATO’s Ballistic Missile Defense entity of our force, he said, but he or she program. Both facilities are still crucial for needs to see it squarely before judgment. both the U.S. and NATO although many Given the acute situation, he advised the experts recall that the U.S. Army has built US and other hostile forces to refrain from several important military bases in the entire provoking the DPRK in order to spend the region, particularly in Iraq and in the Gulf, year-end in peace. and the role of the Incirlik may have been http://www.pyongyangtimes.com.kp/ ignored for Washington. However, an ?bbs=32453 ongoing discussion over Turkey’s threats 60 Volume 12, Number 1 January 15, 2019

Diplomacy is best way to council members calling for sanctions relief. The proposal is somewhat surprising Korea Times, December 16, 2019 as it came when U.S. Special N. Korea should not ignore Biegun’s Representative for North Korea Stephen proposal, U.S. Special Representative for Biegun was visiting Seoul for a possible North Korea Stephen Biegun, who is visiting contact with the North’s negotiators to put Seoul, on Monday offered to meet North the deadlocked dialogue back on track. Korean officials to discuss how to move the Pyongyang is threatening to conduct stalled denuclearization talks forward. This another provocation, possibly an ICBM raises expectations for an impromptu test launch, after carrying out two tests ¯ meeting between Biegun and North believed to be rocket engine tests ¯ on Dec. Koreans at the inter-Korean truce village of 7 and 13. Panmunjeom before he leaves Seoul, The Kim Jong-un regime has made the Tuesday. Hopefully, the North will accept threat in an apparent bid to extract his proposal without conditions and concessions from the U.S., possibly exchange ideas on how to break the sanctions relief, before the year-end deadlock in a candid manner. deadline it has given. The North has even First, the North should realize that the self- threatened to stop the denuclearization imposed “deadline” for a deal with the U.S. talks and take a “new way” unless is meaningless as long as both sides are Washington accepts its demands by Dec. committed to seeking solutions through 31. Against this backdrop, the sanctions diplomacy. The North cannot get anything relief proposal by the North’s allies ¯ China by firing missiles or resuming nuclear tests. and Russia ¯ runs the risk of sending the It only aggravates the situation, and will wrong signal to Pyongyang. The draft give the impression to the world that the resolution calls on the council to lift nuclear issue cannot be resolved through sanctions which were imposed on major dialogue. Pyongyang should leave open the North Korean exports such as seafood, possibility of extending the negotiations with textiles and statues in 2016 and 2017. It Washington. So when Biegun told reporters also calls for lifting a ban on North in Seoul that the U.S. had no deadline on Koreans working abroad and the nuclear negotiations with the North, it termination of a decision to repatriate all sounded like an implicit acknowledgement those workers by Dec. 22. The two that narrowing differences with the North countries said the proposal was made to is impossible at this moment. However, enhance the livelihood of the civilian Biegun said his team was ready to resume population and for humanitarian negotiations with the North, saying the U.S. purposes. had offered the North a number of “creative http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/opinion/ ways” to proceed with “feasible steps and 2019/12/137_280464.html flexibility” to reach a balanced agreement.

http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/opinion/2019/ NHK’s false alarm 12/137_280384.html Korea Times, December 27, 2019 Wrong signal to North Korea Even a small mistake can be dangerous at this time. Japan’s public broadcaster NHK Korea Times, December 17, 2019 mistakenly reported early Friday morning It is premature to call for sanctions relief. that a North Korean missile had landed China and Russia have proposed the U.N. in the sea off the country’s northern island of Hokkaido. It was not the first time NHK Security Council ease sanctions against has issued a false alarm about North North Korea amid growing tensions between Pyongyang and Washington over Korea’s missile launch. In January last the stalled nuclear talks. On Monday, the year, the broadcaster sent out a “J-alert” warning to the public that North Korea two countries circulated a draft resolution 61 Nuclear, Missile & Space Digest

had fired a missile, prompting Chief Cabinet They just guess it will be a long-range Secretary Yoshihide Suga to issue a rocket closer to an intercontinental ballistic reprimanding commentary. “J-alert missile under the guise of a satellite launch provides extremely important information or another nuclear test. that affects the safety and security of Japanese citizens. We want NHK to do their Listening to what North Korea says, utmost to prevent a recurrence,” Suga said however, it is Pyongyang that direly wants at the time. NHK took disciplinary measures a Christmas gift from Washington. The against its news bureau chiefs regarding this North has called for the U.S. to lift incident. economic sanctions or guarantee its national security, and make promises But NHK made the same careless mistake. about them before this year passes. The latest case should not be taken lightly Otherwise, the isolationist regime says it because such a false report at this sensitive will seek a “new way,” another word over time could lead to an armed clash ¯ even which guesses are rampant about what it war. Notably, tensions are running high means. According to some educated over Pyongyang’s possible missile test as a guesses, the “new way” of North Korea “Christmas gift” for U.S. President Donald may be to raise tensions by sophisticating Trump. The U.S. has been increasingly flying nuclear and missile capabilities and surveillance aircraft near the Korean returning to brinkmanship tactics. Or Peninsula. What is notable in Friday’s North Korean leader Kim Jong-un may original NHK report is that it contained maintain the status quo in the nuclear some specific information about the missile confrontation while focusing on rebuilding trajectory. It stated that the North Korean the economy with the help of China and missile had landed in the sea about 2,000 Russia. kilometers east of Hokkaido’s Cape Erimo, suggesting a flight path over Japanese http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/opinion/ territory. The alert was sent out 22 minutes 2019/12/137_280432.html after midnight on its website and news app, not on TV. At 2:28 a.m., NHK issued an Unhappy holidays apology on its website, explaining that the Deauwand Myers, Korea Times, December text was meant for training purposes and 18, 2019 was a false alarm. “We apologize to our viewers and the public,” NHK said. But we The cold and gloom this Christmas season should not rule out the possibility that the matches the mood on the Korean false alert could have been intentional Peninsula and elsewhere. And considering the Shinzo Abe administration unfortunately for world leaders like has maintained a hostile stance on North President Moon Jae-in, he won’t be getting Korea. what he wants for Christmas. The threat of a fully operational nuclear arsenal http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/opinion/2019/ controlled by North Korea has become an 12/137_280977.html increasingly likely scenario, a position that’s untenable and obviously dangerous. South Korea How did we get here?

Christmas gift - for whom? Well, first, let’s look at the players. Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is not the best Choi Sung-jin, Korea Times, December 17, arbiter when it comes to Korean relations 2019 because of his increasingly truculent and This month, the North seems to be preparing ahistorical rhetoric on Imperial Japan’s a “Christmas gift” for the United States, war crimes. Then, of course, there’s U.S. saying the content of the present will depend President Donald Trump. His two failed on Washington. Even longtime Pyongyang summits with North Korean leader Kim watchers are not sure what the gift will be. Jong-un were predictably unproductive photo ops for Trump’s ridiculous obsession 62 Volume 12, Number 1 January 15, 2019

with getting the Nobel Peace Prize. of dialogue, which serves the common Predictable because, like everything else interests of all parties.” Much of Xinhua’s Trump does, his large ego doesn’t match his report was about Xi’s concerns about U.S. actual capabilities. “interference in internal affairs” on issues related to Taiwan, Hong Kong, Xinjiang China’s President Xi Jinping is not nearly as and Tibet. intellectually uncurious as his American counterpart. But he is ideologically rigid. But It is unclear what the U.S. and Chinese more than this, a reunited Korea would leaders discussed about North Korea. But mean a democratic country right on China’s it is easy to guess, given rising tensions on doorstep, a scenario that’s unpalatable to the Korean Peninsula over the North’s the Chinese Communist Party. Xi wants move to pull out of denuclearization talks North Korea to suspend its nuclear weapons with the U.S. It is becoming more evident program, but he most likely doesn’t want it that the “new path” it previously pledged completely dismantled. He sees these to take if the U.S. failed to present a new weapons as the Kim regime does: as a kind proposal within this year is about resuming of insurance against regime change. Then tests of intercontinental ballistic missiles there’s President Moon himself. His and nuclear weapons. According to the breathless attempts at rapprochement with North’s Korean Central News Agency, North Korea have been unsuccessful. His Sunday, Kim Jong-un has presided over a overtures to North Korea, though noble, meeting of the Workers’ Party Central were naive and politically wasteful. They Military Commission to decide on fear that without the threat of using these “important organizational and political deeply immoral weapons in a conflict, an measures and steps to bolster the North’s American administration at one point in the armed forces.” future would attack and destroy the North Korean government, reunifying the Korean http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/opinion/ Peninsula. 2019/12/137_280684.html http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/opinion/2019/ ‘Pivot’ to China 12/137_280255.html Korea Times, December 24, 2019 Fragile peace President Moon sees easing sanctions on N. Korea necessary. President Moon Jae- Korea Times, December 22, 2019 in and Chinese President Xi Jinping Seoul should work closely with US, China appear to have reached a consensus that over NK. U.S. President Donald Trump and easing sanctions on North Korea is Chinese President Xi Jinping had a necessary to revive the momentum for telephone conversation about North Korea dialogue between the North and the and other critical issues of mutual concern. United States. Cheong Wa Dae said Moon Trump tweeted that he had a “very good and Xi exchanged opinions during their talk” with Xi concerning an interim trade summit in Beijing, Monday, about the agreement the U.S. and China reached on draft of a fresh U.N. Security Council Dec. 12. “China has already started large resolution proposed recently by China and scale purchases of agricultural product & Russia to remove some sanctions imposed more. Formal signing being arranged,” on North Korea. Trump wrote. “Also talked about North Korea, where we are working with China Moon and Xi agreed to make concerted & Hong Kong (progress!).” China’s Xinhua efforts to revive the dialogue momentum news agency reported that Xi stressed to and reduce tension on the Korean Trump that all parties needed to seek a Peninsula. According to the South Korean “political” settlement on the North Korean presidential office, the Chinese leader told issue and that “all parties should meet each Moon that Seoul and Beijing should work other halfway and maintain the momentum together to help Pyongyang and Washington continue the denuclearization 63 Nuclear, Missile & Space Digest

talks, saying China and South Korea could by 10 years, provided it supplements safety do many things if they joined hands. Moon equipment. Its operator, Korea Hydro and agreed, saying maintaining the dialogue Nuclear Power (KHNP), poured 560 billion momentum was “more important than won ($482 million) in taxpayer money into anything else.” We view this as Moon’s tacit beefing up its security system. It is agreement with China’s efforts to push for incomprehensible that the commission, the easing of sanctions on North Korea. A which initially took issue with safety issues, security aide for Moon also told reporters is now citing the plant’s lack of commercial on condition of anonymity that Pyongyang viability as the reason for closure. and Washington need to take “simultaneous and paralleled” measures to move the http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/opinion/2019/ denuclearization talks forward based on a 12/137_280961.html landmark agreement reached by their leaders in Singapore in June 2018. O. Think Tanks

http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/opinion/2019/ Kudankulam: One Incident, Many 12/137_280805.html Facets Cherian Samuel and Munish Sharma, Shutdown of nuclear reactor Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, Korea Times, December 27, 2019 December 16, 2019 Decision leaves room to be desired in many A malware infection in the IT network of ways, The nation’s atomic industrial the Kudankulam Nuclear Power Plant regulator has decided to shut down the (KKNPP) located in Tamil Nadu was first Wolsung-1 nuclear reactor for good. The reported in social media on October 28. The seven-member Nuclear Safety and Security coincidental shutdown of one of the plants Commission Tuesday approved 5-2 the in the preceding week led to speculations permanent closure of the reactor in that the two were connected. An initial Gyeongju, some 370 kilometers southeast of official response from the plant authorities Seoul. The Wolsung-1, which began refuted these reports. Subsequently, officials commercial operation in 1983, has become from other agencies including office of the the second reactor to go into the shutdown National Cyber Security Coordinator process, following Kori-1 in 2007. The (NCSC) confirmed these reports, and the decision was fully expected under the Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited incumbent government, which had pledged (NPCIL) – the parent body responsible for to denuclearize the nation’s energy mix. In running the nuclear power plants in the pursuing a nuclear-free energy policy, the country – came out with an official press Moon Jae-in administration put forth two release giving some details of the incident. principles ¯ no building of new nuclear In its October 30 press release, the NPCIL power stations and no prolonging the clarified that the infected personal computer operation of existing ones after their service was in use for administrative purposes only, life has expired. According to the policy, the and the control systems of the plant and Moon administration decided to nullify the critical functions were unaffected by the previous government’s plan to build six new breach. These details were later confirmed reactors and extend the operational license by the Union Minister of State for the of the 14 worn-out plants, reducing the Department of Atomic Energy in the number of nuclear power stations from the Parliament on November 20. current 24 to 14 by 2038. The breach of a critical information The preliminary decision to shut down the infrastructure, particularly in the nuclear Wolsung-1 reactor, however, resulted in a domain, cannot be taken lightly. It also fierce debate on nuclear energy. The plant’s affords an opportunity to review existing service life expired in 2012, but the security practices and address the lacunae, regulatory commission decided to extend it where found. Now that much of the dust 64 Volume 12, Number 1 January 15, 2019

has settled down, this issue brief seeks to at reducing their reliance on fossil fuels, examine the incident and address the larger India is accelerating its plans to lock in a questions it raises about the security of sustained, aggressive reduction in the critical information infrastructure. carbon emissions intensity of its economy. In fact, India’s prime minister, Narendra https://idsa.in/issuebrief/kudankulam-incident- Modi, is targeting a fivefold expansion of cherian-munish-161219 the electricity generated from renewable energy sources by 2030—and this from a Good news for climate change: country that has already doubled its India gets out of coal and into renewable energy in the past three years. renewable energy https://thebulletin.org/2019/12/good-news-for- Tim Buckley, Bulletin of Atomic Scientist, climate-change-india-gets-out-of-coal-and-into- December 16, 2019 renewable-energy/#

In the often grim world of climate reporting, As the US, China, and Russia build there is at least one upbeat story: India has new nuclear weapons systems, been aggressively pivoting away from coal- fired power plants and towards electricity how will AI be built in? generated by solar, wind, and hydroelectric Matt Field, Bulletin of Atomic Scientst, power. This means that the amount of December 20, 2019 carbon dioxide the country emits into the atmosphere should come down Researchers in the United States and dramatically. elsewhere are paying a lot of attention to the prospect that in the coming years new The reasons for this change are complex and nuclear weapons—and the infrastructure interlocking, but one aspect in particular built to operate them—will include greater seems to stand out: The price for solar levels of artificial intelligence and electricity has been in freefall, to levels so automation. Earlier this month, three low they were once thought impossible. For prominent US defense experts published example, since 2017, one solar energy a comprehensive analysis of how company has been generating electricity in automation is already involved in nuclear the Indian state of Rajasthan at the unheard- command and control systems and of of, guaranteed wholesale price of 2.44 rupees what could go wrong if countries per kilowatt-hour, or 3 US cents. (In implement even riskier forms of it. comparison, the average price for electricity in the United States is presently about 13.19 The working paper ”A Stable Nuclear cents per kilowatt-hour, and some locations Future? The Impact of Autonomous in the country pay far more. As recently as Systems and Artificial Intelligence” by the 2008, the average homeowner on Block team of Michael Horowitz, Paul Scharre, Island, Rhode Island, paid a staggering 61 and Alexander Velez-Green comes on the cents per kilowatt-hour for electricity, before heels of other scholarly takes on the impact any other fees or charges—which can nearly artificial intelligence (AI) will have on double the price. And businesses had it even strategies around using nuclear weapons. worse, with some business owners reporting All this research reflects the fact that electric bills of as much as $30,000 per militaries around the world are month.) incorporating more artificial intelligence into non-nuclear weaponry—and that Consequently, with this massive reduction several countries are overhauling their in the cost of renewables, India is able to shift nuclear weapons programs. “We wanted away from the world’s dirtiest fossil fuel, and to better understand both the potentially to much cleaner sources. It’s a stunning stabilizing and destabilizing effects of change, and one that could have profound automation on nuclear stability,” Scharre, implications on the world energy market. a senior fellow at the Center for a New While western countries continue to baulk American Security, told the Bulletin. “In 65 Nuclear, Missile & Space Digest

particular, as we see nations modernize this umbrella of disruptive technologies, and their nuclear arsenals, there is both a risk over the last year, the Bulletin has done just and an opportunity in how they use that. From an explosion at a Russian disease automation in their nuclear operations.” research center that houses the smallpox virus to a proposal to allow AI to be used in The report notes that nuclear weapons the command and control system for systems already include some automated nuclear weapons, Bulletin authors ranged functionality: For example, warning systems across the disruptive tech landscape. Here automatically alert nuclear weapons are six stories that are among the best we operators of an attack. After the Cold War, published in 2019. Russian missiles were programmed to automatically retarget themselves to hit US https://thebulletin.org/2019/12/ai-controlled- targets if they were launched without a nuclear-weapons-smallpox-labs-and-nuclear- flight plan. For its part, the United States at disinformation-the-best-of-2019-in-disruptive- one point designed its entire missile arsenal tech-coverage/ so that it could be retargeted in seconds from its peacetime default of flying into the ocean. The six best nuclear risk stories of Even these forms of automation are risky as 2019 an accidental launch could “spark a nuclear war,” the report says. But some countries, John Krzyzaniak, Bulletin of Atomic the report warns, might resort to riskier types Scientists, December 30, 2019 of automation. 2019 was full of surprising—and terrifying—nuclear news. To list a few of https://thebulletin.org/2019/12/as-the-us-china- the major events: A crisis between India and and-russia-build-new-nuclear-weapons-systems- Pakistan brought two nuclear-armed how-will-ai-be-built-in/# countries to the brink of war; Donald Trump met Kim Jong Un twice but made AI-controlled nuclear weapons, no diplomatic progress on North Korean smallpox labs, and nuclear denuclearization; Russia tried to cover up disinformation: The best of 2019 in a mysterious explosion on its northern coast disruptive tech coverage that prompted near-endless speculation about its efforts to build a nuclear-powered Matt Field, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, cruise missile; the United States formally December 27, 2019 withdrew from the Intermediate-range Since the Bulletin’s first issue in 1945, the Nuclear Forces Treaty and resumed testing publication started by scientists hoping to missiles that would have been banned under focus the world’s attention on the dangers the treaty; and Iran, after nearly goading of nuclear weapons has been expanding its the United States into a war over the scope. These days you’re just as likely to find summer, settled into a series of steady, exclusive climate change coverage as you are deliberate breaches to its commitments to read about new and ill-conceived under the nuclear deal that was inked in ventures in the nuclear weapons space. A 2015. relatively new focus at the Bulletin involves what we call disruptive technologies. From A wide array of experts contributed artificial intelligence (AI) to new gene editing valuable stories to help Bulletin readers techniques, many technologies under make sense of these major events. While that development today promise unquestionably coverage was superb and merits reading useful applications but also raise thorny and even re-reading, the list below takes a ethical and practical questions and the different tack. It is composed of articles that possibility of misuse. Some use cases, in fact, either look back to generate some historical seem only to help spread disinformation, perspective or look forward to a brighter, raise the risk of war, or contribute to greater less dangerous future. inequality. https://thebulletin.org/2019/12/six-best-nuclear- risk-stories-2019/ There’s been quite a lot to talk about under 66 Volume 12, Number 1 January 15, 2019

IAEA Highlights and Achievements Administration led by George W. Bush. in 2019 – a Year in Review The Bush Administration pushed for improved strategic ties starting with the Natalia Ivanova, International Atomic 2004 launch of the Next Steps in Strategic Energy Agency, December 30, 2019 Partnership (NSSP) between United States The appointment of a new Director General, and India. Since then in a little over a over 60 peer review missions, the first decade, US-India space cooperation has entirely virtual conference and a stronger intensified at a brisk pace, particularly voice in global climate discussions are some involving the American private sector, of the highlights of this past year here at the which has found India’s space launch IAEA. This article summarizes some of the services attractive and economical. key events and achievements of the year. To However, before we address the key review some of the most important topics at developments in US-India space relations the IAEA during this past year, see also in recent years, we need to survey the recent issues of its flagship publications — issues that divided New Delhi and the IAEA Bulletin — highlighting the Washington for decades. Agency’s work and impact in the peaceful Nevertheless, beyond space launches, uses of nuclear technology. India and the US have started cooperating https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/iaea- in the area of Satellite Navigation highlights-and-achievements-in-2019-a-year-in- (SatNav). The United States Congress review earlier this month decided in principle, if not yet formally, to designate the Indian US-India space cooperation: Moving Regional Navigation Satellite System away from the burden of the past (IRNSS) or better known as the NaVIC as an “allied system”. According allied status Kartik Bommakanti, Observer Research to the NaVIC is part of a larger effort on Foundation, December 31, 2019 the part of Washington to develop a “prototype” programme with underlying Since the 2000s, India and the US have objective of establishing “multi-global” forged ahead and sought to intensify civilian SatNav system. In addition, American and commercial cooperation in the domain private sector companies such as of space. US-India space cooperation have Qaulcomm Technologies have concluded come a long way since the 1960s. an agreement with ISRO to support the Washington played a vital role in laying the NaVIC’s geolocation capabilities in its foundations of the Indian space programme. chipset platforms that will enable better The US helped in establishing the Thumba mobile services and Internet performance. Equatorial Rocket Launch (TERL), All this represents important progress and Thiruvananthapuram and transferred as ISRO’s capacities grow further, more sounding rockets such as the Nike-Apache, significant scientific exploration could which was launched from the TERL. US- crystallise for deep space missions as well India space cooperation has witnessed as initiatives that are more limited. growth since 2008 when the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) as part of https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/us- India’s first deep space mission the india-space-cooperation-moving-away-burden- Chandrayaan-1 to the moon carried two past-59282/ scientific payloads — the Moon Mineralogy Mapper (M3) and Miniature Synthetic P. Reports & Interviews Aperture (MiniSar). In 2006, the ISRO and its American counterpart National Iran’s Nuclear Program: Status Aeronautics and Space Administration Congressional Research Report, December (NASA) signed a Memorandum of 20, 2019 Understanding (MoU), which enabled the NASA payloads to be part of the lunar Iran’s nuclear program began during the mission under the aegis of the US 1950s. The United States has expressed 67 Nuclear, Missile & Space Digest

concern since the mid-1970s that Tehran In addition, Tehran has implemented might develop nuclear weapons. Iran’s various restrictions on, and provided the construction of gas centrifuge uranium IAEA with additional information about, enrichment facilities is currently the main its nuclear program pursuant to the July source of proliferation concern. Gas 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action centrifuges can produce both low-enriched (JCPOA), which Tehran concluded with uranium (LEU), which can be used in the P5+1. Although Iran claims that its nuclear power reactors, and weapons-grade nuclear program is exclusively for peaceful highly enriched uranium (HEU), which is purposes, the program has generated one of the two types of fissile material used considerable concern that Tehran is in nuclear weapons. Is Iran Capable of pursuing a nuclear weapons program. The Building Nuclear Weapons? The United U.N. Security Council responded to Iran’s States has assessed that Tehran possesses the refusal to suspend work on its uranium technological and industrial capacity to enrichment program by adopting several produce nuclear weapons. But Iran has not resolutions that imposed sanctions on yet mastered all of the necessary technologies Tehran. Despite evidence that sanctions for building such weapons. Whether Iran and other forms of pressure have slowed has a viable design for a nuclear weapon is the program, Iran continued to enrich unclear. uranium, install additional centrifuges, and conduct research on new types of A National Intelligence Estimate made centrifuges. Tehran has also worked on a public in 2007 assessed that Tehran “halted heavy-water reactor, which was a its nuclear weapons program” in 2003. The proliferation concern because its spent fuel estimate, however, also assessed that Tehran would have contained plutonium—the is “keeping open the option to develop other type of fissile material used in nuclear nuclear weapons” and that any decision to weapons. However, plutonium must be end a nuclear weapons program is separated from spent fuel—a procedure “inherently reversible.” U.S. intelligence called “reprocessing.” Iran has said that officials have reaffirmed this judgment on it will not engage in reprocessing. several occasions. Obtaining fissile material is widely regarded as the most difficult task How Soon Could Iran Produce a Nuclear in building nuclear weapons. As of January Weapon? Then-Under Secretary of State 2014, Iran had produced an amount of LEU for Political Affairs Wendy Sherman containing up to 5% uranium-235, which, explained during an October 2013 hearing if further enriched, could theoretically have of the Senate Committee on Foreign produced enough HEU for as many as eight Relations that Iran would need as much nuclear weapons. Iran had also produced as one year to produce a nuclear weapon LEU containing nearly 20% uranium235; if the government decided to do so. At the the total amount of this LEU, if it had been time, Tehran would have needed two to in the form of uranium hexafluoride and three months to produce enough further enriched, would have been sufficient weapons-grade HEU for a nuclear for a nuclear weapon.. After the Joint Plan weapon. Iran’s compliance with the of Action, which Tehran concluded with JCPOA increased that time frame to one China, France, Germany, Russia, the United year, according to U.S. officials. These Kingdom, and the United States (collectively estimates apparently assume that Iran known as the “P5+1”), went into effect in would use its declared nuclear facilities to January 2014, Iran either converted much produce fissile material for a weapon. of its LEU containing nearly 20% uranium- However, Tehran would probably use 235 for use as fuel in a research reactor covert facilities for this purpose; Iranian located in Tehran, or prepared it for that efforts to produce fissile material for purpose. Iran has diluted the rest of that nuclear weapons by using its known stockpile so that it contained no more than nuclear facilities would almost certainly be 5% uranium-235. detected by the IAEA.

https://fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/RL34544.pdf 68 Volume 12, Number 1 January 15, 2019

Gorbachev: Don’t give up hope for agreed on reductions in their armed forces world without nuclear weapons and their weaponry. This was the “peace dividend,” which everyone received as a The Asahi Shimbun, December 17, 2019 result of the end of the Cold War.

With the Trump administration Q: But with the abandonment of various withdrawing from a key nuclear weapons restrictions, what do you feel will be the agreement and even contemplating the use effects for the future of the world? of low-grade nuclear weapons, former Soviet Union leader Mikhail Gorbachev Gorbachev: The decision by the United wants to reach out to the United States for States to withdraw from the INF threatens dialogue. “The main thing is to act so as not to unleash a sequence of events that would to allow the world to slide towards an arms move to undo all of this. The United States race, to a confrontation, and to hostility,” refused to ratify the Comprehensive Gorbachev said. “Despite everything, I Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). As a believe that this is still within our result of the unilateral decision in 2002, capabilities.” As general secretary of the the United States nullified the Treaty on former Soviet Union, Gorbachev played a the Limitation of Anti-Ballistic Missile large role in bringing the Cold War to an Systems (ABMT). end and reaching agreements with the United States on reducing nuclear weapons. Out of the three principal pillars of global He received the Nobel Peace Prize in 1990. strategic stability—the ABMT, INF and The Asahi Shimbun recently interviewed START (Strategic Arms Reduction Gorbachev, 88, in Moscow to hear his views Treaty)—only one is left, but even the fate on what needs to be done to restore mutual of the New START, which was signed in cooperation and negotiations to lessen the 2010, is becoming unclear. dangers of nuclear war. What’s behind the United States’ decision Excerpts of the interview follow: to withdraw from the INF is their striving to free themselves of any obligations with Question: Having worked toward the respect to weapons and obtain absolute signing of the Intermediate-Range military supremacy. That is an illusory Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF), how do you aim, an unfulfilled hope. Hegemony by now feel about the invalidation of that one single country is not possible in today’s treaty? world. The result would be destabilization of the global strategic situation, a new arms Gorbachev: I want to remind you of an idea race and all the randomness and which was the main driver on the road to unpredictability of global politics. The this treaty. It is expressed in the joint security of every country, including the announcement given by the leaders of the United States, will suffer as a result. Soviet Union and the United States that was agreed at our first meeting (in 1985) in Q: What would you like to say to the Geneva: “A nuclear war is not acceptable, current U.S. president? and there will be no winners in a nuclear war.” We announced that we had to get rid Gorbachev: I hear from the current of nuclear weapons. This is something I am president of the United States that they are still praying for. the richest country, that they have more money than anybody else, so there is going This was the first step as the states reviewed to be a new arms race. Who is America their respective military doctrines with the planning to fight, however? The first aim of reducing their reliance on nuclear country to come to mind, of course, is weapons. In comparison with the peak of Russia. We should never let ourselves the Cold War, the number of nuclear embark on a course of developing nuclear weapons that Russia and the United States weapons again and of a new arms race. had was reduced by more than 80 percent. We have to stop working on pipe dreams, The countries of Eastern and Western Europe 69 Nuclear, Missile & Space Digest

and engage with realpolitik. We don’t need states and request that they return to talks an apocalypse! We need peace! on the reduction and elimination of nuclear arsenals. Some of our experts are Q: I understand that one catalyst for your singing the praises of nuclear weapons. signing the INF was the accident at the They are saying that nuclear weapons Chernobyl nuclear plant. Can you explain? saved the world from war. But at least on one occasion they took the world to the Gorbachev: The explosion of the atomic brink of self-destruction. I am referring to reactor at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power the Cuban missile crisis. This should never Station became one of the most important be forgotten. boundaries in the history of our country and of the world, laying bare the problems in the Q: What do you think needs to be done Soviet Union and reminding us of the now? colossal destructive power of atomic energy and of nuclear weapons. Colossal efforts Gorbachev: I think that talks between the were put in place to find the reasons behind United States and Russia must be resumed what happened and to liquidate the immediately. During these talks not only immediate consequences of this tragedy. The must the issues of the INF, or a liquidators showed courage, but continuation of the New START be unfortunately, this did result in casualties. reviewed, but also the principal questions of peace and security, and, first and My life was divided into two parts: before foremost, the need to restore the movement the Chernobyl accident, and after. They tried toward a world without nuclear weapons. to prevent a nuclear explosion themselves, All the nuclear states need to make but they still lacked the understanding of decisive steps toward a world free of what Japan had been through. Again, that nuclear weapons. Nuclear deterrence will was an experience which demonstrated to not protect the world from a nuclear us that we had to do something about accident or from nuclear terrorism, but nuclear weapons. would keep it under a constant threat.

Q: After the Chernobyl accident, you Q: What advice do you have for the made a speech on television in May 1986 current global situation? in which you called out to U.S. President Ronald Reagan for a meeting at a Gorbachev: The agreements that created European capital or even Hiroshima. Why the basis for international security did you make that proposal? following the end of the Cold War should be used for further talks. I want to reach Gorbachev: I don’t think anyone wants a out to the Americans, especially to the second Hiroshima. The powerful states who members of Congress, Republicans and have 90 percent of the nuclear arsenal at Democrats. I regret that the pressing their disposal have to reassure global public situation with respect to internal politics opinion that we are moving toward a that has unfolded in the United States over liquidation of these weapons. Russia is the last few years has led to a failure of ready. dialogue between our two countries. It is time to overcome the inter-party Q: How have you been making your calls disagreements and start a serious for eliminating nuclear weapons? conversation. Gorbachev: I consider nuclear war to be New ideas are needed, which would help unacceptable. Only a madman would start in moving relations between Russia and a nuclear war. Even during the course of the United States away from their what was mandatory training for a head of deadlock. Not so long ago, former U.S. state I never pressed that button in the so- Secretary of State George Shultz and I called “nuclear briefcase.” I recently wrote called for the establishment of a non- to Nobel Peace Prize laureates and called on governmental forum of Russian and them to approach the leaders of the nuclear 70 Volume 12, Number 1 January 15, 2019

American experts to develop proposals for the governments of our respective countries. The militarization of thought has led to the militarization of the behavior of countries. The key to resolving security issues lies not in weapons, but in politics. The main thing is to act so as not to allow the world to slide towards an arms race, to a confrontation, and to hostility. Despite everything, I believe that this is still within our capabilities.

Q: How did you first become involved in nuclear issues?

Gorbachev: It all began when I worked in the Komsomol (the Communist Party’s youth division). We were a small group gathered at an officers’ club and we were shown a film about the effects of a nuclear explosion and about the atomic bomb itself. There is so much power in that bomb. We were shocked. We were told you should never look directly at the blast and you have to cover yourself with a wet sheet. Back then when I saw all this, I said there is only one thing we can do—we have to fight for peace.

http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/ AJ201912170049.html 71 Nuclear, Missile & Space Digest

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