Neo Prospects
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FlightGlobal.com November 2020 INSIDE Dassault Falcon 6X cutaway Supersonic charger Boom Neo unveils demonstrator p18 Let our training guide set prospects your career path p50 Why Airbus expects A320 to soar after pandemic p39 9 770015 371327 £4.99 Survival mode On the up £4.99 Can Predator How Boeing will builder adapt manage 737 Max for new fi ght? delivery backlog 35 p22 p36 A different animal for a different world • Rightsize your fl eet • Match capacity with demand • Rebuild business profi tability • Achieve true sustainability ##E22PPrroofi tHHuunntteer EE22PPrrofifitHHuunntteerr..ccoomm Comment No silver bullet There are reasons to think that next year may offer more cheer than 2020, but optimism should still be tempered Patrick J Nelson/Shutterstock Patrick The distance between us ost airlines are resigned to ly changing travel restrictions and the northern hemisphere spring. the next few months be- quarantine requirements. But there are also plenty of de- Ming flat at best in terms of That point stands despite com- velopments that could further de- international air travel de- mercial air travel being relatively lay the significant opening up of mand amid widespread restrictions, safe. But within that context, there is international markets well into next quarantine requirements and rising still a reasonable chance that better year, and perhaps beyond. coronavirus cases in many regions. news for airlines will be forthcoming The benefits of any vaccines will Impatient carriers will continue in the next few months – particularly not be seen overnight; coronavi- to burn through cash and resize in terms of medical developments. rus reinfections could prove more operations, in the hope that next Important data on the final-stage widespread than first thought and year will bring some better news. It trials of several vaccines should be immunity could be much shorter; seems highly likely that more bank- available soon, and perhaps one or treatments may only bring incre- ruptcies are ahead, whatever the two candidates might already be in mental benefits, not a cure; more- coming months deliver. circulation come early 2021. Con- over, without significant medical But when this crisis reaches the currently, progress could be made breakthroughs and/or the virus re- 12-month mark around February/ on treatments and the care of those treating, governments might further March 2021, are there any reasons infected with Covid-19. And come tighten their borders next year. to believe that things will look vast- early next year, more of the world The bleak economic picture – with ly better than they do today? will have a better idea of what does millions of jobs lost worldwide and The cautious answer is: yes, but and does not work in terms of keep- corporate travel demand severe- there are no guarantees. ing case numbers low. ly depressed – must also be baked Every optimistic forecast must be More “travel bubbles” may also into the outlook, whatever progress tempered by a recognition that the open up, allowing some interna- the new year brings in other areas. airline industry’s fortunes are inex- tional connectivity. Schemes such Ultimately, while cautious opti- orably linked to how quickly the as the EU’s traffic light system for mism about improving conditions virus is brought under control – a tracking cases might make it easier next year is justified, pent-up de- factor it cannot influence. for carriers to serve certain routes. mand for international flying going International air travel cannot en- And perhaps IATA and ACI World into 2021 is most likely to be con- ter a full recovery phase while the will get their way and a widespread verted into actual travel by a much virus is as big a threat as it is today. pre-flight testing regime will open improved health picture, under- Quite simply, most people will not up more international markets. pinned by medical advancements. commit to crossing borders while In combination, those and other Nothing should be taken for it still comes with a genuine threat factors might put the airline industry granted. ◗ of catching Covid-19, plus rapid- on a much stronger footing come See p6 November 2020 Flight International 3 In focus How protests and pandemic Embraer sees bright future Reports highlight long-term pushed Cathay to the brink 6 for regional jets 20 FAA fears 28 Testing times for BA boss 8 From Predator to survivor 22 No confi dence crisis at Max closer to return 10 Airbus shows clarity of ST Engineering 32 Staying top of the props 12 ACJ TwoTwenty vision 24 Endangered species 34 Subsidy row rumbles on 16 Starling spreads its wings 26 Max factors 36 Going the distance: Gulfstream’s G600 put through its paces INSIDE Dassault Falcon 6X cutaway 34 Supersonic charger Boom Neo unveils demonstrator p18 Let our training guide set prospects your career path p50 Why Airbus expects A320 to soar after pandemic p39 9 770015 371327 £4.99 Survival mode On the up £4.99 Can Predator How Boeing will builder adapt manage 737 Max for new fi ght? delivery backlog 35 p22 p36 Cover: AirTeamImages AirTeamImages Cover: Regulars Comment 3 Straight & Level 74 Letters 76 Jobs 81 Women in aviation 82 4 Flight International November 2020 Contents Features An industry on hold Assessing Train in vain? Training and 6X appeal Anticipating the the position of commercial development standards arrival of Dassault’s latest, airliners in today’s market 38 come under the spotlight 50 most advanced business jet 64 Hard lessons Progress still Long ranger Gulfstream’s Always ready Our annual required in sharing pilot long-legged G600 comes report on military fl ight training performance data 46 in for a fl ight test 58 simulators worldwide 70 12 38 58 32 November 2020 Flight International 5 Visit FlightGlobal Premium for all the latest aviation news and insight FlightGlobal.com How protests and pandemic pushed Cathay to the brink Anti-government demonstrations together with Covid-19 have meant a double whammy for Hong Kong’s flag carrier Alfred Chua Singapore tradition bill – wore on, Cathay be- tomer and commercial officer Paul gan to feel the heat. Loo announced their resignations, In early August, the carrier an- caught up in a controversy over athay Pacific’s 21 Octo- nounced a significant number of crew members taking part in the ber announcement that it flight cancellations out of Hong anti-government protests. is shedding 8,500 posts Kong, initially caused by an air traf- August was also when the first and closing its Cathay fic control strike. signs of financial stress became CDragon brand is the culmination apparent, with Cathay warning that of more than a year of strife at the the demonstrations could dent its Hong Kong carrier, with the indus- “Rather than revenue for the month. August try-wide upheaval of the corona- also marked the start of a decline virus crisis adding to the financial growing, for in traffic that the carrier has been pain already caused to the airline unable to arrest. by local political unrest. Inbound traffic fell by 38% year At the beginning of last year the the first time on year in August 2019, tradition- carrier appeared to be turning a ally a strong month for the carrier. corner: yields were on an upward in a long time Yields, which months earlier had trajectory, passenger demand was been climbing, also took a hit. healthy, and its transformation ef- our airlines will The carrier trimmed its capacity forts appeared to be paying off. growth for the rest of the year in The success of the restructuring reduce in size” order to cope with the impact of was reflected in Cathay’s full-year the protests. results for 2018, which showed Augustus Tang A month later, Cathay flagged a swing back into the black. It Chief executive, Cathay Pacific weaker financial results for the sec- acquired HK Express in March 2019, ond half of the year, as continued allowing it to expand into the low- unrest dragged its revenue down. cost market. But on 12 August, protests hit fe- September saw lower load factors Six months later, Hong Kong was ver pitch, with demonstrators oc- and passenger numbers than Au- veiled in clouds of tear gas as an- cupying swathes of Hong Kong’s gust, and marked the third straight ti-government protesters took on airport. That meant that all flights, month of weaker traffic. the authorities, and any momen- including Cathay’s, were cancelled. By November, the carrier said it tum Cathay had ebbed away. Days later, in yet another unex- was pushing back the delivery of As the protests – demonstrations pected twist, the airline’s chief ex- four Airbus A320neo-family aircraft against an unpopular proposed ex- ecutive Rupert Hogg and chief cus- that were originally set to join its Deferrals and job cuts needed to staunch financial bleeding In addition to the lay-offs, in July Cathay said it was in monthly cash burn by around Cathay Pacific has announced “advanced negotiations” with HK$500 million ($64 million). that the delivery of its on-order Boeing to defer the 777-9s, but Cathay estimates its monthly Boeing 777Xs has now been gave no further details. cash burn to be in the region of pushed back until the second Cathay Pacific group chairman HK$1.5 billion to HK$2 billion. half of the decade. Patrick Healy adds that there With Cathay Dragon ceasing Cathay has 21 777-9s on order, are no changes to other already operations, the airline’s fleet will dating from a 2013 agreement disclosed deferrals. be “incorporated into the Cathay under which deliveries were This means that an agreement Pacific fleet”.