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Ipsos MORI Scotland Public Opinion Monitor April 2015

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Ipsos MORI Scotland Public Opinion Monitor April 2015 2015 SCOTTISH PUBLIC OPINION MONITOR 2015 VOTING INTENTIONS General Election – Voting Intention HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW? 3 All giving a voting intention Certain to vote SNP 3% 1% 6% 1% 5% 2% LABOUR 17% 17% CONSERVATIVE 54% 54% LIB DEM GREEN 20% 20% OTHER SNP lead +34 SNP lead +34 Base: All giving a voting intention = 948; all certain to vote = 785. Data collected among 1,071 Scottish Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor adults 18+, 22nd - 27th April 2015 2015 SATISFACTION WITH PARTY LEADERS Satisfaction with Scottish party leaders HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS / DOING HER JOB 5 AS FIRST MINISTER /HIS JOB AS DEPUTY FIRST MINISTER/ HIS/HER JOB AS LEADER OF THE XXXX PARTY? NICOLA STURGEON JIM MURPHY RUTH DAVIDSON WILLIE RENNIE PATRICK HARVIE +100 0 -100 -1% -15% +15% +3% -1% swing from January swing from January swing from January swing from January swing from January +48 Net -19 Net +7 Net -14 Net +20 Net SATISFIED 71% SATISFIED 33% SATISFIED 45% SATISFIED 27% SATISFIED 43% DISSATISFIED 24% DISSATISFIED 52% DISSATISFIED 38% DISSATISFIED 41% DISSATISFIED 23% Base: 1,071 Scottish adults 18+, 22nd - 27th April 2015. Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied” Satisfaction with Westminster leaders HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS JOB 6 AS PRIME MINISTER /DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER/LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/UKIP? CONSERVATIVE LABOUR LIB DEM +100 0 -100 +6% +15% +11% swing from January swing from January swing from January -34 Net -31 Net -39 Net SATISFIED 31% SATISFIED 30% SATISFIED 26% DISSATISFIED 65% DISSATISFIED 61% DISSATISFIED 65% Base: 1,071 Scottish adults 18+, 22nd – 27th April 2015. Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied” Net Satisfaction with party leaders trend ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS FIRST 7 MINISTER//PRIME MINISTER/LEADER OF SCOTTISH LABOUR/THE SCOTTISH LIBERAL DEMOCRATS/THE SCOTTISH CONSERVATIVES? 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 Aug-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13 May-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 JIM WILLIE NICK PATRICK NICOLA RUTH DAVID JOHN MURPHY RENNIE ED MILIBAND CLEGG HARVIE STURGEON DAVIDSON CAMERON SWINNEY Base: All . Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults. Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor 2015 PARTY PREFERENCES Party preferences THINKING ABOUT EACH OF THE MAIN PARTIES STANDING AT THE FORTHCOMING GENERAL ELECTION, WHICH OF THE 9 FOLLOWING STATEMENTS COMES CLOSEST TO YOUR VIEW? SNP SCOTTISH LABOUR SCOTTISH CONSERVATIVE SCOTTISH LIB DEMS THEY ARE MY PREFERRED THEY ARE MY PREFERRED THEY ARE MY PREFERRED THEY ARE MY 45% PARTY 14% 14% 5% PARTY PARTY PREFERRED PARTY NOT PREFERRED PARTY BUT NOT PREFERRED PARTY NOT PREFERRED PARTY NOT PREFERRED PARTY BUT MIGHT VOTE IF THEY HAD A BUT MIGHT VOTE IF THEY BUT MIGHT VOTE IF THEY MIGHT VOTE IF THEY HAD A 17% CHANCE OF WINNING IN MY 30% 15% HAD A CHANCE OF 25% HAD A CHANCE OF WINNING CHANCE OF WINNING IN MY CONSTITUENCY WINNING IN MY IN MY CONSTITUENCY CONSTITUENCY CONSTITUENCY I WOULD NEVER I WOULD NEVER CONSIDER I WOULD NEVER CONSIDER I WOULD NEVER CONSIDER 35% 52% 67% CONSIDER VOTING FOR 67% VOTING FOR THEM VOTING FOR THEM VOTING FOR THEM THEM DON’T KNOW / NONE 4% DON’T KNOW / NONE 4% DON’T KNOW / NONE 4% DON’T KNOW / NONE 4% Base: 1,071 Scottish adults 18+, 22nd – 27th April 2015. Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor Who will win/come second in your constituency? 10 WHICH PARTY DO YOU THINK WILL WIN THE VOTE IN AND WHO WILL COME 2ND? YOUR LOCAL CONSTITUENCY? 1% 7% 6% 7% SNP 5% SCOTTISH 3% LABOUR 5% SCOTTISH 31% LABOUR 7% SNP SCOTTISH SCOTTISH 53% CONSERVATIVES 7% CONSERVATIVES SCOTTISH LIB SCOTTISH LIB 28% DEMS DEMS OTHER OTHER DON’T KNOW 39% DON’T KNOW NOT STATED Base: 1,071 Scottish adults 18+, 22nd – 27th April 2015. Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor Attitudes to SNP in government SOME PEOPLE THINK THAT THE SCOTTISH NATIONAL PARTY WILL INCREASE THE NUMBER OF SEATS THEY HOLD AFTER THE 11 FORTHCOMING GENERAL ELECTION. IN THE EVENT OF A HUNG PARLIAMENT THEY MIGHT HAVE SOME INFLUENCE IN THE UK GOVERNMENT. IF THAT DOES HAPPEN, DO YOU THINK THAT WOULD BE A GOOD THING OR A BAD THING FOR: SCOTLAND THE UK AS A WHOLE 5% 7% 26% GOOD THING 33% BAD THING DON’T KNOW 69% 60% Base: 1,071 British adults 18+, 22nd – 27th April 2015. Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor Technical details 12 This presents the topline results from Scotland. Results are based on a survey of 1,071 respondents (adults aged 18+) conducted by telephone Fieldwork dates: 22nd- 27th April 2015. Data are weighted by: age, sex and working status using census data; tenure using SHS data; and public-private sector employment using Scottish Government Quarterly Public Sector Employment series data Where results do not sum to 100%, this may be due to computer rounding, multiple responses, or the exclusion of “don’t know” categories Results are based on all respondents (1,071) unless otherwise stated. Contact us: Mark Diffley: [email protected]; 0131 220 5699 2015 SCOTTISH PUBLIC OPINION MONITOR .
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