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Maritime Issues in the East and South China Seas Summary of a Conference Held January 12–13, 2016 Volume Editors: Rafiq Dossani, Scott Warren Harold Contributing Authors: Michael S. Chase, Chun-i Chen, Tetsuo Kotani, Cheng-yi Lin, Chunhao Lou, Mira Rapp-Hooper, Yann-huei Song, Joanna Yu Taylor C O R P O R A T I O N For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/CF358 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2016 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Cover image: Detailed look at Eastern China and Taiwan (Anton Balazh/Fotolia). Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface Disputes over land features and maritime zones in the East China Sea and South China Sea have been growing in prominence over the past decade and could lead to serious conflict among the claimant countries. Resolving disputes through a negotiated approach could also lead to new opportunities for growing cooperation. To explore differing regional perspectives and identify potential areas for cooperation, the RAND Corporation organized a two-day conference on maritime disputes hosted at RAND’s headquarters in Santa Monica, California, on January 12 and 13, 2016. The conference brought together scholars on maritime disputes from China, Japan, Taiwan, and the United States to assess a variety of aspects of the disagreements among the claimants. The conference participants from the RAND Corporation included Michael S. Chase, Rafiq Dossani, Scott Warren Harold, and Joanna Yu Taylor. Outside scholars included Chun-i Chen (National Chengchi University, Taiwan), Tetsuo Kotani (Japan Institute of International Affairs), Cheng-yi Lin (Academia Sinica, Taiwan), Chunhao Lou (China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations), Mira Rapp-Hooper (Center for a New American Security, United States), and Yann-huei Song (Academia Sinica, Taiwan). The conference and this resulting summary were conducted through the RAND Center for Asia Pacific Policy, which is part of International Programs at the RAND Corporation. The center provides analysis on political, social, economic, and technological developments in and around the Asia Pacific. Through research and analysis, the center helps public and private decisionmakers solve problems, tackle challenges, and identify ways to make society safer, smarter, and more prosperous. For more information on the RAND Center for Asia Pacific Policy, see www.rand.org/international/capp or contact the director (contact information is provided on the web page). Funding for this conference was provided, in part, by generous philanthropic contributions from the Taipei Economic and Cultural Office–Los Angeles to the RAND Center for Asia Pacific Policy. iii Contents Preface ............................................................................................................................................ iii Chapter One. Introduction and Summary of the Proceedings ........................................................ 1 Rafiq Dossani and Scott Warren Harold ........................................................................................ 1 Key Issues of the Conference ................................................................................................................... 1 Key Features of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea .................................................. 3 The Historical Record of Disputes in the East and South China Seas ..................................................... 4 Lessons from Global Experience in Resolving Maritime Disputes ......................................................... 8 Coastal States’ Motivations and Strategies ............................................................................................ 10 Conclusion .............................................................................................................................................. 18 Chapter Two. Lessons from Global Experience in Resolving Maritime Disputes ....................... 20 Yann-huei Song ............................................................................................................................. 20 Obligations to Resolve Maritime Disputes by Peaceful Means and the Duty to Cooperate .................. 21 Methods of Resolving or Managing Maritime Disputes ........................................................................ 22 Examples of Existing or Settled Maritime Disputes in the World’s Oceans and Seas .......................... 25 Lessons Learned from Global Experiences in Resolving Maritime Disputes ........................................ 32 Concluding Remarks .............................................................................................................................. 34 Chapter Three. Regional Approaches to Territorial Dispute Management .................................. 36 Tetsuo Kotani ................................................................................................................................ 36 Managing Tension in the East China Sea ............................................................................................... 36 Increasing Tensions in the South China Sea .......................................................................................... 39 Conclusion .............................................................................................................................................. 42 Chapter Four. Navigating Through Troubled Waters by Joint Development .............................. 43 Chunhao Lou ................................................................................................................................. 43 Potential Resources in the South and East China Seas ........................................................................... 44 Attempted Cooperation, Actual Competition ......................................................................................... 45 Prolonged Competition ........................................................................................................................... 49 Impetus for Joint Development .............................................................................................................. 55 Conclusions ............................................................................................................................................ 58 Chapter Five. Emerging Strategies and Force Postures of Parties to the East and South China Sea Disputes ................................................................................................................. 59 Mira Rapp-Hooper ........................................................................................................................ 59 Emerging Strategies and Postures in the East China Sea ....................................................................... 61 Emerging Strategies and Postures in the South China Sea ..................................................................... 65 Analysis .................................................................................................................................................. 69 iv Chapter Six. China’s Troubled Waters in the East and South China Seas: A Taiwanese Assessment .............................................................................................................................. 72 Cheng-yi Lin .................................................................................................................................. 72 Sino-Japanese Confrontations over the East China Sea ......................................................................... 72 Confronting ASEAN Claimants and the United States in the South China Sea .................................... 77 The Taiwan Factor in China’s East and South China Sea Policy ........................................................... 84 Conclusion .............................................................................................................................................. 87 Chapter Seven. Fisheries Issues in Taiwan’s Relationships with Japan and the Philippines ....... 89 Michael S. Chase .......................................................................................................................... 89 Taiwan-Japan Fisheries Agreement ........................................................................................................ 90 Taiwan-Philippines Fisheries Law Enforcement Agreement
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