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The Howey Political Report Is Published by Newslink Tive Congressional Races on Our Landscape: 2Nd CD Between Inc Monday, July 1, 2002 ! Volume 8, Number 39 Page 1 of 8 Setting the stage for The Indiana’s CD races Howey !"##$%&'()&*(+,%&'-./,&%0-1%.#%)&2%)%& By BRIAN A. HOWEY in Indianapolis Tax restructuring and deficit reduction and cigarettes and dockside and the old Dog Doctor and Speaker Bauer and Political blah, blah, blah, and ... ... now for something completely different. Like that other huge Hoosier political story of 2002: Report Our role as epicenter for control of the U.S. House of Representatives. HPR sees three, and possibly four, competi- The Howey Political Report is published by NewsLink tive Congressional races on our landscape: 2nd CD between Inc. Founded in 1994, The Howey Political Report is Democrat Jill Long Thompson and Republican Chris an independent, non-partisan newsletter analyzing the Chocola; 6th CD between U.S. Rep. Mike Pence and political process in Indiana. Democrat Melina Ann Fox; 7th CD where Republican Brose Brian A. Howey, publisher McVey is showing a tenacious streak against U.S. Rep. Julia Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington writer Carson; and the 9th CD where Republican Mike Sodrel is Jack E. Howey, editor expected to press U.S. Rep. Baron Hill. HPR views the Thompson-Chocola race as a pure The Howey Political Report Office: 317-968-0486 tossup. Currently, Reps. Hill and Carson are in the “Leans PO Box 40265 Fax: 317-968-0487 Indianapolis, IN 46240-0265 Mobile: 317-506-0883 D” range and Pence is in a “Leans R” status and of the lot, Pence may be in the best position of incumbents ... for now. [email protected] www.howeypolitics.com The Bush tail wind is expected to wane somewhat. His popularity hovers around 70 percent, but many observers Washington office: 202-775-3242; wouldn’t be shocked to see it down to the mid-50s. Business Office: 317-254-0535. President Bush’s approval ratings, Gallup Polls Subscriptions: $250 annually via e-mail or Approve Disapprove DK fax; $450 annually including the HPR Daily Sept. 7-10 2001 51 39 10 Wire. Call 317-254-1533 or 254-0535. Sept. 14-15, 2001 86 10 4 © 2002, The Howey Political Report. All rights March 8-9, 2002 80 14 6 reserved. Photocopying, Internet forwarding, faxing or June 3-6, 2002 70 23 7 reproducing in any form, in whole or in part, is a viola- June 21-23, 2002 73 21 6 tion of federal law and is strictly prohibited without The recently leaked Rove/Mehlman Memo notes that consent of the publisher. continued on page 2 “This bill, and the incredible effort that went Ticker: Bauer-Moses speaker race p. 2 into it from all sides, has changed all of us. Congress: Hill-Sodrel on trade p. 4 And it will change Indiana, immediately and Horse Race: 2004 governor’s race p. 6 for years into the future ....” - Gov. Frank Columnists: Colwell, Stedman p. 8 O’Bannon, signing HB 1001ss today Monday, July 1, 2002 Page 2 of 8 TERROR ALERT FOR POLICE AGENCIES: CBS reported Sunday the FBI has issued a secret alert to law enforcement across the country warning of a possi- ble terrorist attack around the Fourth of July holiday. The government decided not to warn the public, how- ever, believing that the threat was too vague. Secretary of State Colin Powell said Sunday, "I don't want to overhype it, but I think what was passed out with presidential approval under 50 per- the latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll yesterday is just a prudent alert to law enforcement cent, the ruling party loses 41 seats; shows them taking a healthy eight-point agencies. And in the between 50-59 percent, 20 seats; over 60 lead over Republicans among registered course of the next couple of percent, 5 seats. Another domestic terror voters, 50 percent to 42 percent. Last days, we'll be meeting on a attack might propel Bush, who said in month Republicans received 46 percent of regular basis to make an Ohio this morning that on homeland secu- support among registered voters, and the assessment of any addition- rity “We are doing all we can do,” back Democrats 45 percent. The two previous al threats that might be into the 80th percentile, unless Americans polls showed the Democrats with leads of coming our way." National view it as a glaring lapse under his watch. seven and four points. From December Security Adviser Condolee- While the political ranks closed through February, Republicans enjoyed a za Rice said on NBC’s Meet the Press, “Certainly the behind Bush on Sept. 11, lately Democrats slight advantage that varied from two to Fourth of July just symboli- have been critical of the war effort. U.S. five percentage points. But in March, it cally is an important day Sen. John Kerry suggested last week that was a tie. A Battleground Poll revealed and I think the president Central Command “lost” the battle of Tora that apart from Democratic union mem- would ask Americans to do Bora and a chance to capture bin Laden. bers, Republicans appeared to be more what he's asked them to do Former Vice President Al Gore accused motivated to vote this fall. before, which is to be vigi- Bush of using the war as a “wedge issue.” The economy grew at an annual lant, to work hard to look Roll Call reported that House Democrats rate of 6.1 percent in January through around them and see if any- thing looks unusual. A lot “have plunged into a thorny internal March. The Associated Press termed it of preparations are being debate over whether and how strongly to “sizzling” and said it was the “strongest made to try and make cer- challenge President Bush as he presses showing in more than two years.” The tain that the Fourth of July ahead with the war on terror.” U.S. Commerce Department reported the is safe for everyone. But, A possible military buildup to take gross national product is at a robust 5.6 yes, it is a time for on Iraq next winter could paint this fall’s percent. The Federal Reserve Board left enhanced vigilance." political landscape. A CNN/USA benchmark interest rates unchanged last Today/Gallup poll showed that only 33 month at a 40-year low. MOSES SEEN TO BE OUT- percent believe America is winning the The Wall Street Journal reported FLANKING BAUER: The race for Indiana Speaker of war, compared to 66 percent in January. today that 55 experts are predicting in The race for control of Congress “uncharacteristic unanimity” a GNP of 3.5 Continued on page 3 appears now to favor the Democrats, as percent, analyzing, "Even as stock prices Page 3 of 8 Monday, July 1, 2002 tumble, corporate accounting scandals company, CTB, shifted $909,000 in bene- brew, the mighty US dollar sinks and the fits away from employees (See Horse war on terror remains headline news, Race, page 6). economists have a surprisingly rosy view Another vital issue is over Social of the outlook for the economy in the Security, where in the 2nd CD, Thompson months ahead." keeps reminding voters of Chocola’s 2000 GOP pollster Ed Goeas said the quote favoring “privatization.” the House appears to be economy remains a potentially significant Like the 1996 gubernatorial race wide open, which means factor in shaping the fall vote, particularly between Frank O’Bannon and Stephen Fort Wayne legislator Win if there is another slide into recession or Goldsmith, the term “privatization” has Moses Jr. could still climb the stock market stays in the doldrums. become radioactive. Congressional into the post (Fort Wayne “A double-dip recession becomes George Quarterly reported on June 24 that House Journal Gazette). It was Bush's problem” and the slumping stock Democrats "plan to take the opportunity to largely believed that Rep. B. Patrick Bauer, D-South market could motivate voters nearing debate Republican proposals to create pri- Bend, was building his retirement to turn against the GOP, he vate Social Security investment accounts alliance for speaker by said. when a bill (HR 4070) to protect benefi- putting promises in the spe- So on the “people voting their ciaries from fraud hits the floor Tuesday." cial session's tax bill. But pocket book” issue, things look pretty 'There's more to winning an elec- after the Senate virtually good for Republicans, for now. tion than war, education and the economy,' gutted Bauer's bill and he That is, until you get into prescrip- Democratic pollster Mark Mellman said was forced by Gov. Frank tion drug costs. The GOP plan passed by on Friday (Washington Times). “National- O'Bannon and House lead- the House last week was heralded by ized health care, social security and the ership to swallow the alter- native, many political insid- Pence, who said, “As a fiscal conserva- environment are issues that still resonate ers now feel Bauer's lead in tive, I believe this is a bill of which with people after 9/11.” the speaker race has evapo- Americans can be proud.” Another possible trouble spot for rated. An investigation into HPR happened to watch a political- Republicans is crime. ABC News reported a questionable fund-raiser ly mixed group as NBC’s Tom Brokaw that FBI statistics show that for the first he held also isn't helping noted that no one would be paying more time in a decade, the overall rate of major his chances. This momen- than $3,700 a year in prescriptions, and an crimes increased last year by 2 percent in tum swing is away from incredulous groan went through the room.
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