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Politics Indiana Politics Indiana V14 N37 Tuesday, April 29, 2008 GOP may decide Clinton-Obama Howey-Gauge Poll has presidential race too close to call; JLT has big lead; Burton Carson favored By BRIAN A. HOWEY INDIANAPOLIS - The his- toric Indiana Democratic presiden- tial primary race between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama could well be decided by ... Republicans. consisted of 600 likely Democratic primary elec- According to the Howey-Gauge Poll conducted April 23- tion voters. The total statewide survey included 40 percent 24, entirely after the Clinton Pennsylvania primary victory, Democrats and 50 percent Republicans along with 10 per- Hoosier Democrats are evenly split at 46-46 percent. The cent independent voters. fascinating wrinkle comes when the poll reveals that the There appears to be two kinds of Republicans: the race could be determined by the 9 percent of independent “Obamacans” as the Illinois senator likes to call them - ear- voters expected to participate, and 10 percent Republican nest Republicans deeply disappointed in their own party’s crossover. performance on the budget, economy, social issues and the In the head-to-head matchup, Obama has a 47- Iraq War - and the Rush Limbaugh Republicans who are 45 lead, well within the 4.1 percent margin of error. The planning to crossover to vote for Sen. Clinton because they poll was the result of two scientific surveys: the first that perceive her to be the weakest rival to U.S. Sen. John Mc- included 600 likely registered voters and the second that See Page 5 When in doubt here in Indiana, play basketball By BRIAN A. HOWEY INDIANAPOLIS - When in doubt … in Indiana, you do what’s natural. You play basketball. “Just the two of us, going for 90 That summed up Barack Obama’s weekend strat- egy as the Hoosier state hangs in the balance with almost minutes asking and answering every poll showing his critical May 6 primary race with Hillary Clinton too close to call. Or, the questions, we’ll set whatever as we used to say in places like the Wig- wam, Northside Gym and TigArena … this is rules seem fair.’’ a barn burner! - Hillary Clinton, seeking a The next poll - our own Howey-Gauge Poll is released Tuesday. And here’s a hint: Lincoln-Douglas debate Obama would be wise to play a lot more HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 2 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Tuesday, April 29, 2008 basketball in Indiana, and in North female museum workers introduced Howey Politics Carolina for that matter. These are themselves to Obama, and one said basketball states. she had heard he was a good bas- Indiana This sequence of the Indiana ketball player. “I definitely would not is a nonpartisan news- campaign began Friday night when qualify for any hall of fame,” he told Obama put on a Marine Corps t-shirt them. “But I have sworn that we’re letter based in Indianapolis and played three-on-three at Koko- taking out the bowling alley in the and published by NewsLink mo’s Maple Crest Middle School. White House and we’re putting in a Barack Obama plays three-on- basketball court. I have made that Inc. It was founded in three at Kokomo on Friday night.Kory commitment.” That will win Obama 1994 in Fort Wayne. McKay, a freshman at IU-Kokomo, some Hoosier votes. was one of the participants and came “I saw your piece on real away from the experience, saying, sports, you had a real nice game,” Brian A. Howey, publisher “He’s got good moves for a politician.” McGinnis said. “For an old guy, I’m all Mark Schoeff Jr. and Mark It was a far better experience for right,” Obama responded. Obama than his Keystone cop bowling Then Obama spied a familar Curry, Washington experience in Pennsylvania where he face on the HOF wall. “Lee Hamilton writers rolled a 37, presumably with the rails is in the hall of fame and I’m more Jack E. Howey, editor down. impressed with that than the fact Beverly Phillips, associate With stops on Saturday at that he chaired the 9/11 commission, basketball hotbeds in Marion (at the that’s a big deal there,” Obama said editor Bill Green Stadium) and Anderson, to McGinnis. Hamilton recently en- Obama made his way to yet another dorsed Obama (as has former IU star Subscriptions: hoops wayside, the Indiana Basketball Calbert Cheaney), which might be an Hall of Fame in New Castle, a city that indicator of the next campaign tactic. $350 annually HPI via e-mail; boasts one of the biggests high school To our knowledge, Larry Bird, Johnny $550 annually HPI & HPI Daily basketball gyms on the planet. On Wooden, Reggie Miller, Gene Keady, Wire. hand was basketball legend George Scott May, Rick Mount, Quinn Buckner, Call 317-254-0535. McGinnis. Glenn Robinson and Adrian Dantley According have yet to make an Howey Politics Indiana to the pool report, endorsement. You PO Box 40265 Obama seemed might laugh at such Indianapolis, IN 46240-0265. excited to be tour- an assertion, but ing the museum, any of those names which had display would lift eyebrows Contact Us cases and poll numbers. www.howeypolitics.com filled with, and Or here’s [email protected] walls lined by, another tacitic. pictures, pennants, Hillary Clinton chal- Main Office: 317-202-0210. jerseys, trophies, lenged Obama over Howey’s Mobile: 317-506-0883. medals, ticket the weekend to a Indianapolis Fax: 317-254-0535. stubs, lithographs 90-minute Lincoln- Washington: 202-256-5822. and every sort Douglas style debate of Hoosier high - just he and I, Business Office: 317-254-0535. school basketball asking questions to ©2008, Howey Politics memorabilia imag- each other - is how Indiana. All rights reserved. inable. Obama she put it. Photocopying, Internet forwarding, paid admission Obama should ($5) for himself counter: No, Hillary, faxing or reproducing in any form, and an unknown Barack Obama at the Indiana Basket- one-on-one at the in whole or part, is a violation of number of guests. ball Hall of Fame at New Castle. The Wigwam, to 21. Or federal law without permission from According night before, he sank four fieldgoals in at least a game of the publisher. to the pool report, winning a three-on-three game. (Indiana H-O-R-S-E. v a group of three Basketball Hall of Fame) HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 3 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Tuesday, April 29, 2008 from page 1 year-old voter, where Clinton has a narrow 44-42 percent Howey-Gauge Poll, lead. With up to 200,000 new voters, according to Secre- tary of State Todd Rokita, the crucial question is whether Cain in the November election. younger voters can reverse a historical trend and out-poll Howey-Gauge shows that self-identified Republi- older voters. Clinton leads among white females (58-33 cans favor Clinton 50-44 percent, while independents favor percent) and white males (49-44 percent). Obama leads Obama 54-38 percent. “The Democratic primary is go- among black females (79-11 percent) and black males (78- ing to be decided by non-Democrats,” said Gauge Market 15 percent). Research pollster Holly Davis. “To be determined is which As far as the “race” question goes, it’s hard to group - Republicans or independents - are going to decide tell how that will play out. Poll participants have often not this race.” An indicator as to the kind of havoc Republican been candid about race questions, answering one way and voters could create comes on the Iraq War issue. Those voting another. Will people who don’t want to vote for an favoring immediate withdrawal favor Obama 49-46 per- African-American man be inclined to vote for a female for cent. Those favoring the current troop levels favor Clinton 58-39 percent, but, Davis notes, “That number is strongly influenced by Republican crossovers.” At 99 percent, both Clinton and Obama have universal name identification. Clinton’s favorable/unfavorable ratings stand at 37/42 percent among total potential primary voters, compared to 61/21 from Democrats. Obama has simi- lar numbers from Democrats - 60/20, but fares better with all potential primary voters, includ- ing Republicans and indepen- dents, at 41/34 percent. Sen. Clinton leads 48-43 percent on the top issue - Sen. Obama was well received by 8,000 people at Evansville despite his loss that night in the jobs and wages. Gasoline prices Pennsylvania primary. But he trails Sen. Clinton by a big margin in the Evansville media market.. rocketed from just 1 percent in (HPI Photo by Brian A. Howey) the Feb. 17-18 Howey-Gauge survey to 12 percent on April 23-24, a huge statistical leap. Sen. Clinton holds a 46-45 president? The 1999 Indianapolis mayoral race where Sue percent lead with voters on that issue. That’s why we saw Anne Gilroy lost is a historic point to consider. Gilroy lost Sen. Obama hold the press conference last Friday at Joe’s support of many Republican women. Junction, a Phillips 66 station in Indianapolis. Both Clinton “Both campaigns can point to specific demographic and Obama are running TV ads on the gas price issue. groups, but neither is strong enough with enough key “That’s a measurable voting block,” Davis said of the those demographic groups to give one candidate a clear advan- who see gas prices as the leading issue. “They are not tage,” Davis said. Key demographics to watch in the final just concerned, people are scared. They are upset. You week include white females, the 18-44 age group; African- have a sizable voting block that has their backs up against Americans; and the Evansville media market (Clinton leads the wall, with no escape hatch; nowhere to go.
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