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Politics Indiana Politics Indiana V15 N4 Thursday, Sept. 4, 2008 Howey-Gauge: Prez Barnburner ning mate. Daniels maintains Virtually every big lead over JLT respondent of the poll was By BRIAN A. HOWEY aware of both INDIANAPOLIS - Hoo- events. Luke siers are likely to find themselves Messer, who at the American political epicen- heads the Mc- ter over the next 60 days as the Cain campaign latest Howey-Gauge Poll shows in Indiana, had Republican John McCain with a expressed res- 45-43 percent lead over Demo- ervation about crat Barack Obama. The com- the poll oc- panion race shows Gov. Mitch curring before Daniels maintaining a signifi- the Republican cant 53 to 35 percent lead over National Con- Democrat Jill Long Thompson. vention. The Libertarian Andy Horning came poll’s timing in with 3 percent and 9 percent was scheduled were undecided. Sen. John McCain with Gov. Mitch Daniels at a town hall meeting last Febru- to coincide with The survey of 600 likely ary in Indianapolis. (HPI Photo by A. Walker Shaw) the Indianapo- registered voters took place on lis Chamber of Aug. 29-30, some 20 hours after Obama gave his Demo- Commerce’s cratic National Convention nomination acceptance speech annual Hobnob tonight at the Indiana State Museum. But in Denver, and five hours after McCain stunned the political world by selecting Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin to be his run- See Page 3 Blink, stand and deliver BY MARK SCHOEFF JR. WASHINGTON - In his best-selling book “Blink,” consultant and acclaimed big-thinker Malcolm Gladwell posits that people make their best decisions by not over thinking them--essentially, by going with “If there has been a basis upon their gut instincts. Perhaps the biggest “blink” in which you can pursue someone Sen. John McCain’s life, selecting Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate on for a criminal violation, they will the GOP presidential ticket, looks like a good call after Palin’s rousing speech on be pursued.” Wednesday at the Republican National Convention. - U.S. Sen. Joe Biden, on By all accounts, McCain settled on Palin as his choice just a few days possible Bush Admin war crimes HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 2 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, Sept. 4, 2008 before introducing her to the nation the GOP’s conservative, small-town Howey Politics last Friday. Controversy is now swirl- base. Will she be able to connect with ing about the extent to which McCain blue-collar voters? Will she be able to Indiana vetted Palin. After a barrage of nega- attract suburban women who are not is a nonpartisan news- tive press coverage -- about a brew- avid supporters of Sen. Hillary Rod- ing political scandal in Alaska and the ham Clinton but who could relate to letter based in Indianapolis pregnancy of her teenage daughter this Alaskan governor who is trying to and published by NewsLink -- and rising doubts about her quali- balance work and career? fications to be vice president, Palin Inc. It was founded in stood and delivered in St. Paul. Under extraordinary pres- 1994 in Fort Wayne. sure, she simultaneously electrified and relieved the GOP delegates gath- Brian A. Howey, publisher ered in Minnesota. She demonstrated maternal warmth, steely resolve, Mark Schoeff Jr. Washington empathy, charm, toughness and confi- writer dence. Jack E. Howey, editor With Palin, McCain’s chances Beverly Phillips, associate of becoming president moved from “probably not” after Democratic nomi- editor nee Barack Obama’s historic accep- tance speech in Denver last week to Subscriptions: “maybe” today. Two white males once again gracing the GOP ticket would One of the most popular $350 annually HPI via e-mail; have doomed it to a double-digit loss adjectives supporters use to describe $550 annually HPI & HPI Daily in a year dominated by “change.” Palin is “authentic.” Certainly, she embodies a biography that many Wire. Palin shakes things up. She showed particular fluency on one of Americans can relate to -- from being Call 317-631-9450. the top issues in the campaign -- en- a parent to running a business to be- Howey Politics Indiana ergy policy. She highlighted the under- ing involved in the PTA to dealing with PO Box 40265 standing she’s developed by dealing family health care challenges. with the topic as governor of Alaska. But what Palin didn’t do on Indianapolis, IN 46240-0265. But probably the most star- Wednesday was answer the most dev- tling dimension of the speech was astating attack Obama launched in his Contact Us the alacrity with which she went after acceptance speech last week. He said Obama. Palin, and her advisers, must that McCain “just doesn’t get it” when www.howeypolitics.com have decided that the best defense it comes to understanding the eco- [email protected] against charges that she’s not quali- nomic suffering gripping the country. Main Office: 317-202-0210. fied to be vice president is by going Palin didn’t lay out a coher- ent plan to revive the economy. She Howey’s Mobile: 317-506-0883. on offense and asserting that Obama lacks the background to be president. warned that Obama would usher in Indianapolis Fax: 317-254-0535. In one of her most memo- an era of higher taxes and activist Washington: 202-256-5822. rable lines of the evening, she said, “I government. But maybe those are the Business Office: 317-631-9450. guess a small-town mayor is sort of answers that Americans in desperate like a ‘community organizer,’ except straits seek. Obama certainly thinks ©2008, Howey Politics that you have actual responsibilities.” so. Indiana. All rights reserved. She has great stage presence It’s up to McCain to lay out a Photocopying, Internet forwarding, and is a quick study. She looks as if compelling alternative economic plan tonight. Despite the help he’s getting faxing or reproducing in any form, she’ll hold her own in media inter- views and in her upcoming debate from Palin, it’s a job that only the per- in whole or part, is a violation of with Obama’s running mate, Sen. Joe son at the top of the ticket can do. v federal law without permission from Biden, who called her “formidable.” the publisher. The question is whether she’ll Schoeff writes for Howey Politics be able to help McCain reach beyond Indiana in Washington, D.C. HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 3 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, Sept. 4, 2008 Howey-Gauge, from page 1 negatives fell from 34 percent in April to 27 percent in Au- gust. Hoosiers having a hard opinion of McCain increased from 72 percent in April to 82 percent. “The positive move- Palin’s selection was widely seen as a successful McCain ment for Obama is significant,” said Gauge Market Research campaign strategy of limiting the Obama post-convention pollster Holly Davis. “At the end of the day, we’ll have to bounce. “Here at the convention Republicans are excited wait and see if Obama’s about Sarah Palin,” said Luke impact is larger than that Messer, who heads McCain’s of Palin’s. We will see if Indiana campaign. “The race the new voters that were has already kind of bounced registered before and back. When Barack picked after the May Democratic Joe Biden, it had little effect. primary out-weigh the It will take some time to deal renewed excitement with the Palin effect. What social conservatives have we do know is the Republican for Sarah Palin.” candidate for president does The level of about 8 to 10 percent better interest in this election in Indiana than the national is reflected in the fact polls.” that there are 400,000 The poll’s makeup new registered voters. included 36 percent Republi- Almost 90 percent of the can and 32 percent Democrat. poll respondents rated their level of interest in the Obama- Add in the “independent” Democrats and Republicans and McCain race as between 8 and 10. that split was 48 percent Republican and 43 percent Demo- Recent polls by SurveyUSA and Rasmussen had crat. “Completely independent” made up 9 percent. The McCain with a 6 percent lead, but those occurred before poll had an 8 percent African-American sample, 1 percent Obama’s acceptance speech that reached 40 million TV Hispanic, and a 51/49 female/male split. The margin of er- viewers and an unknown number on the worldwide web. ror was +/- 4.1 percent. The Obama campaign clearly believes Indiana can go In the presidential race, McCain slightly under- Democratic for the first time since 1964. Echoing Barack performed the GOP base. Both McCain and Obama have Obama’s comment last April that Indiana could be the “tie- near universal name recognition at 99 percent. McCain’s breaker,” his national and Indiana campaign said Wednes- 55 percent favorable recognition was up 8 percent and his day the state could decide the presidential race on Nov. 4. unfavs stood at a relatively low 27 percent. Obama’s favo- “If we were to win every John Kerry state plus Iowa, we’d rables have been on a steady increase from 41 percent in have 259 Electoral College votes,” said deputy campaign the April Howey-Gauge Poll to 56 percent in this survey. His manager Steve Hildebrand. “Indiana has 11 Electoral Col- HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 4 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, Sept. 4, 2008 lege votes. Indiana could put us over the top.” Thompson’s Recognition Problem Hildrebrand added, “If we didn’t think Indiana was In the gubernatorial race, Democrat Jill Long competitive, we wouldn’t be spending millions of dollars Thompson faces a dilemma similar to what she faced in the running TV ads for nine weeks.
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