SEMIQUANTITATIVE ASSESSMENT OF REGIONAL CLIMATE VULNERABILITY: THE NORTH-RHINE WESTPHALIA STUDY J. P. KROPP1, A. BLOCK1, F. REUSSWIG1, K. ZICKFELD1, and H. J. SCHELLNHUBER1,2 1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany E-mail:
[email protected] 2Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 TTJ, UK Abstract. Climate change will bring about a sea change in environmental conditions worldwide dur- ing the 21th century. In particular, most of the extreme events and natural disaster regimes prevailing today will be transformed, thus exposing innumerable natural and socio-economic systems to novel risks that will be difficult to cope with. This crucial component of vulnerability to anthropogenic interference with the climate system is analyzed using powerful pattern recognition methods from statistical physics. The analysis is of intermediate character, with respect to spatial scale and com- plexity level respectively, and therefore allows a rapid regional assessment for any area of interest. The approach is based on a comprehensive inventory of all those ecological and socioeconomic as- sets in a region that are significantly sensitive to extreme weather (and climate) events. Advanced cluster analysis techniques are then employed to derive from the inventory a set of thematic maps that succinctly summarize – and visualize – the differential vulnerabilities characteristic of the area in question. This information can prepare decision makers and the general public for the climate change hazards to be faced and facilitates a precautionary climate change risk management. The semiquan- titative methodology described and applied here can be easily extended to other aspects of climate change assessment.