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Distributed Operations in a Contested Environment

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Distributed Operations in a Contested Environment C O R P O R A T I O N Distributed Operations in a Contested Environment Implications for USAF Force Presentation Miranda Priebe, Alan J. Vick, Jacob L. Heim, Meagan L. Smith For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR2959 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-1-9774-0232-5 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2019 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface Because of increasing air and missile threats to air bases, the Air Force is developing concepts to operate from a large number of small operating locations in a conflict with a near- peer competitor. This type of distributed air operations in a contested environment represents a significant shift in the way the Air Force has operated since the end of the Cold War. The Air Force therefore asked the RAND Corporation whether the Air Force needs to adjust how it presents forces to the joint commander. This report identifies capabilities the Air Force needs to carry out distributed operations in a contested environment. It then assesses whether the current force presentation model can provide these capabilities and how it compares with alternative models. The research reported here was commissioned by Maj Gen Brian Killough, Director of Strategic Plans, Office of the Deputy Chief of Staff for Strategic Plans and Requirements, and conducted within the Strategy and Doctrine Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE as part of a FY 2018 project Distributed Operations. RAND Project AIR FORCE RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Corporation, is the U.S. Air Force’s federally funded research and development center for studies and analyses. PAF provides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future air, space, and cyber forces. Research is conducted in four programs: Strategy and Doctrine; Force Modernization and Employment; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; and Resource Management. Additional information about PAF is available on our website: www.rand.org/paf/ This report documents work originally shared with the U.S. Air Force on August 2, 2018. The draft report, issued on September 17, 2018, was reviewed by formal peer reviewers and U.S. Air Force subject-matter experts. iii Contents Preface ............................................................................................................................................ iii Figures ............................................................................................................................................ vi Tables ............................................................................................................................................ vii Summary ...................................................................................................................................... viii Acknowledgments ........................................................................................................................ xiv Abbreviations ................................................................................................................................ xv 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 1 Force Presentation ....................................................................................................................... 2 Methodology ............................................................................................................................... 5 Report Organization .................................................................................................................... 8 2. Demand for Distributed Operations ............................................................................................ 9 Motivation for Distributed Basing ............................................................................................ 10 Motivation for Distributed Communications ............................................................................ 23 Conclusion ................................................................................................................................ 27 3. Protection .................................................................................................................................. 28 Capabilities for Protecting Against Air and Missile Attack ..................................................... 29 Capabilities for Protecting Against Ground Threats to Distributed Bases ............................... 34 Potential DOTMLPF-P Changes .............................................................................................. 42 Conclusion ................................................................................................................................ 45 4. Command and Control .............................................................................................................. 47 Disruptions to Command and Control in a Contested Environment ........................................ 48 Capabilities for Command and Control in a Contested Environment ...................................... 49 Potential DOTMLPF-P Changes .............................................................................................. 59 Conclusion ................................................................................................................................ 65 5. Sustainment ............................................................................................................................... 66 Disruptions to Sustainment in a Contested Environment ......................................................... 67 Capabilities for Sustainment in a Contested Environment ....................................................... 67 Potential DOTMLPF-P Solutions ............................................................................................. 72 Conclusion ................................................................................................................................ 78 6. Distributed Operations and Force Presentation ........................................................................ 79 Current Fighter Force Presentation Model for Employment .................................................... 79 Implications of Current and Alternative Air Force Approaches to Force Employment ........... 83 Force Presentation Priorities and the Operating Environment ................................................. 92 iv 7. Conclusion ................................................................................................................................ 94 Findings .................................................................................................................................... 94 Recommendations ..................................................................................................................... 96 Final Thoughts .......................................................................................................................... 99 References ................................................................................................................................... 101 v Figures Figure 2.1. Growing Reach and Inventory of Chinese Missiles ................................................... 12 Figure 2.2. Illustration of the Resilience Benefits of Distributing Aircraft Against Missile Attack ....................................................................................................................... 17 Figure 2.3. Summary of Alternative Types of Distributed Operating Locations ......................... 19 Figure 2.4. Notional Beddown with Three Distributed Basing Types ......................................... 20 Figure 2.5. Representative Communications Options at Various Ranges .................................... 25 Figure 2.6. Illustration of Aircraft Using LOS Datalink to Link Two Bases ............................... 27 Figure 4.1. Notional Depiction of U.S. and Allied Communications Pathways .......................... 50 Figure 4.2. Notional C2 Arrangement for Distributed Control of Fighter Forces ........................ 52 Figure 4.3. Notional Sector for a Conflict in the Pacific .............................................................
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