University of Nevada, Reno the Effects of Climate on Singleleaf Pinyon Pine Cone Production Across an Elevational Gradient A
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University of Nevada, Reno The Effects of Climate on Singleleaf Pinyon Pine Cone Production across an Elevational Gradient A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of BACHELOR OF SCIENCE, WILDLIFE ECOLOGY AND CONSERVATION by Britney Khuu Miranda Redmond, Thesis Advisor Peter Weisberg, Thesis Advisor May 2017 UNIVERSITY OF NEVADA THE HONORS PROGRAM RENO We recommend that the thesis prepared under our supervision by BRITNEY KHUU entitled The Effects of Climate on Singleleaf Pinyon Pine Cone Production across an Elevational Gradient be accepted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of BACHELOR OF SCIENCE, WILDLIFE ECOLOGY AND CONSERVATION ______________________________________________ Peter Weisberg, Ph. D., Thesis Advisor ______________________________________________ Tamara Valentine, Ph. D., Director, Honors Program May 2017 i Abstract Climate change affects forest structure and composition through increasing temperatures and altered precipitation regimes. Arid and semi-arid ecosystems have shown signs of susceptibility towards regional warming. Climate warming may negatively affect tree reproduction, which is an important factor in tree population dynamics. The relationship between climate change and tree reproduction is not fully understood, particularly in mast seeding tree species. This project aims to determine how climate affects seed production across an elevational gradient in singleleaf pinyon pine (Pinus monophylla), a dominant, widespread mast seeding conifer of the Great Basin. Historical cone production data were collected and reconstructed for the past 15 years at three sites that span an elevational gradient on Rawe Peak near Dayton, Nevada. The low elevation site had only one year of high seed cone production; therefore, seed production data were not sufficient enough to test any relationships between cone production and climate. Cone production in low, mid, and high elevation sites differed significantly with more cones at the high elevation site. A significant positive relationship was found between cone production and summer precipitation (May to July) from three years prior to mature cone production (one year prior to seed cone initiation) at the high elevation site (p=0.0006; r^2=0.5841). The result suggests that Pinus monophylla stores resources prior to a mast seeding event and that precipitation can be a limiting factor on cone production. With predicted decreases in precipitation due to climate change, cone production may be significantly affected in Pinus monophylla and other mast seeding tree species. Further research with larger sample sizes, more study sites, and a longer time period of investigation is needed to better understand the relationship between cone ii production and climate change, particularly for tree species with long intervals between masting events. Research on this topic is important because changes in seed production due to climate change could alter future forest structure and composition, affecting wildlife and dependent communities. iii Acknowledgements I would like to thank my thesis advisors Peter Weisberg and Miranda Redmond for all of their help and support. They have been there for me from beginning to end, from writing my proposal to the final touches on my thesis. I have really learned so much from working with them. I would also like to thank Stephanie Freund for helping me out during the branch gathering process of this project. Finally, I would like to thank my friends and family for their love and encouragement throughout this time. This project was funded by the National Science Foundation’s Experimental Program to Stimulate Competitive Research (NSF EPSCoR) Research Infrastructure Improvement (RII) Award. iv Table of Contents Abstract ................................................................................................................................ i Acknowledgements ............................................................................................................ iii Table of Contents ............................................................................................................... iv Table of Figures .................................................................................................................. v Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 1 Literature Review ................................................................................................................ 5 Mast Seeding and Its Mechanisms .................................................................................. 7 Mast Seeding and Climate ............................................................................................ 12 Climate Effects on Cone Production ............................................................................. 13 Climate Change Effects on Cone Production ............................................................... 15 Significant Effects of Pinyon Pine Regeneration Failure ............................................. 17 The Need for Historical Cone Data .............................................................................. 19 Methodology ..................................................................................................................... 20 Results ............................................................................................................................... 25 Discussion ......................................................................................................................... 33 Conclusion ........................................................................................................................ 39 References ......................................................................................................................... 40 v Table of Figures Figure 1. The focal species, Pinus monophylla, can be long-lived .....................................3 Figure 2. Hypothesized relationships between cone production and late summer temperature at low, mid, and high elevations. .....................................................................5 Table 1. Mast seeding tree species and their masting cycle intervals .................................8 Table 2. A comparison of evidence supporting or in opposition to the four primary mast seeding hypotheses: resource matching, predator satiation, pollination efficiency, and animal dispersal ........................................................................................................... 10-11 Figure 3. Pinus monophylla trees showing canopy thinning and tree mortality as a result of drought ...........................................................................................................................16 Figure 4. Picture of pinyon jay on top of Pinus monophylla tree .....................................18 Figure 5. Satellite image of the site locations at Rawe Peak, showing the site location in relationship to California and Nevada ...............................................................................21 Figure 6. Photo of the high-elevation study site showing sampled Pinus monophylla trees. ...................................................................................................................................21 Figure 7. Explanation of cone scar abscission methodology ............................................22 Table 3. Trees sampled at each site (low, medium, high) elevation. One low elevation tree was not included in the data set. .................................................................................23 Figure 8. Sample of cone production data set showing site, year, cone mean, and cone standard error .....................................................................................................................24 Figure 9. Average cone production (average number of cones per branch per tree for all trees sampled) at high, medium, and low elevation sites from 2002-2017 ........................25 vi Figure 10. Average growing season temperature (March-October) at the study site from 1990-2016 ..........................................................................................................................26 Figure 11. Average annual precipitation at the study site from 1990-2016 ......................26 Figure 12. Cones per tree and average diameter at root collar (cm) .................................27 Figure 13. Average cone production and summer precipitation (May to July) from two and three years prior to mature seed cone production .......................................................29 Table 4. Single linear regression analysis results of promising climate variables including the regression coefficient (Bi), p-value, and R ...................................................................30 Figure 14. Cone production and annual precipitation (November to October) from two and three years prior to mature seed cone production .......................................................31 Figure 15. Average cone production and growing season temperature (March to October) from two and three years prior to mature seed cone production ........................................32 Figure 16. Cone production and summer temperature (May-July) from two years and three years prior to mature seed cone production ..............................................................33 1 Introduction