STRATEGY Black flag rising ISIL in Southeast Asia and Australia Peter Chalk December 2015 Peter Chalk Peter Chalk is an adjunct senior political scientist with the RAND Corporation in the United States. He has analysed such topics as unconventional security threats in Southeast and South Asia; new strategic challenges for the US Air Force in Latin America, Africa, and South Asia; evolving trends in national and international terrorism; Australian defence and foreign policy; international organised crime; the transnational spread of disease; and US military links in the Asia–Pacific region. Peter is associate editor of Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, one of the foremost journals in the international security field. He has testified before the US Senate on issues pertaining to transnational terrorism and piracy and is author of numerous publications and books on various aspects of low‑intensity conflict in the contemporary world. Besides his RAND affiliation, Chalk acts as a subject matter expert on maritime security with the Postgraduate Naval School in Monterey, California and works as a contractor for several organisations that provide professional executive education to security and government officials around the world. Before coming to RAND, Peter was an assistant professor of politics at the University of Queensland, Brisbane, and a postdoctoral fellow in the Strategic and Defense Studies Centre of the Australian National University, Canberra. He earned his Ph.D. in political science at the University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada. About ASPI ASPI’s aim is to promote Australia’s security by contributing fresh ideas to strategic decision‑making, and by helping to inform public discussion of strategic and defence issues. ASPI was established, and is partially funded, by the Australian Government as an independent, non‑partisan policy institute. It is incorporated as a company, and is governed by a Council with broad membership. ASPI’s core values are collegiality, originality & innovation, quality & excellence and independence. ASPI’s publications—including this paper—are not intended in any way to express or reflect the views of the Australian Government. The opinions and recommendations in this paper are published by ASPI to promote public debate and understanding of strategic and defence issues. They reflect the personal views of the author(s) and should not be seen as representing the formal position of ASPI on any particular issue. Important disclaimer This publication is designed to provide accurate and authoritative information in relation to the subject matter covered. It is provided with the understanding that the publisher is not engaged in rendering any form of professional or other advice or services. No person should rely on the contents of this publication without first obtaining advice from a qualified professional person. Cover image: Smoke rises behind an Islamic State flag after Iraqi security forces and Shiite fighters took control of Saadiya in Diyala province from Islamist State militants, 24 November 2014. © REUTERS / PICTURE MEDIA. Black flag rising ISIL in Southeast Asia and Australia Peter Chalk December 2015 © The Australian Strategic Policy Institute Limited 2015 This publication is subject to copyright. Except as permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part of it may in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, microcopying, photocopying, recording or otherwise) be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted without prior written permission. Enquiries should be addressed to the publishers. Notwithstanding the above, Educational Institutions (including Schools, Independent Colleges, Universities, and TAFEs) are granted permission to make copies of copyrighted works strictly for educational purposes without explicit permission from ASPI and free of charge. First published December 2015 Published in Australia by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute ASPI Level 2 40 Macquarie Street Barton ACT 2600 Australia Tel + 61 2 6270 5100 Fax + 61 2 6273 9566 [email protected] www.aspi.org.au www.aspistrategist.org.au Facebook.com/ASPI.org @ASPI_org Chalk, Peter, author. Black flag rising: ISIL in Southeast Asia and Australia / Peter Chalk. ISBN: 9781925229127 (paperback) Series: Strategy (Australian Strategic Policy Institute) Subjects: IS (Organization) Terrorism--Prevention--Southeast Asia. Terrorism--Prevention--Australia. Terrorism--Government policy--Australia. Islamic fundamentalism--Southeast Asia. Islam and politics--Southeast Asia. Southeast Asia--Strategic aspects. Dewey Number: 363.325 CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 5 CHAPTER 1 7 Introduction CHAPTER 2 8 ISIL: Overview CHAPTER 3 10 ISIL in Southeast Asia CHAPTER 4 17 Responding to ISIL CHAPTER 5 21 ISIL and Australia CHAPTER 6 25 Conclusion APPENDIX: GLOBAL AFFILIATES OF ISIL, JULY 2015 27 REFERENCES 28 NOTES 31 ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS 36 4 B ALACK FL G RISING: ISIL in SOUTHEAST ASIA and AUSTRALIA Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak delivers a speech at the opening of the ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur, 21 November 2015. Razak called on world leaders to confront Islamic terrorism, saying its ‘barbaric acts’ do not represent any race or religion, as he opened a regional summit overshadowed by a spate of attacks around the globe. © Olivia Harris / REUTERS / PICTURE MEDIA. ASPI STRATEGY EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Although the prime focus of Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) has been on establishing a state—a caliphate— in the Middle East, it has also sought to gain a presence beyond that area. Southeast Asia is one region that’s now receiving increased attention as a potential beachhead for the group. Most concern has focused on Malaysia, Indonesia, the southern Philippines and the Malay Muslim provinces of Thailand. Estimates of the number of Malaysians who have travelled to Syria and Iraq to participate in the group’s jihadist struggle range from 30 to 150. A number of them have already returned home and are now playing an active role in encouraging heightened domestic militancy. Since 2013, 122 people have been detained for having some type of connection to ISIL. Estimates of the number of Indonesians who have travelled to fight with ISIL vary, although the total could be more than 500. Prisons have proven to be an especially effective conduit for ISIL recruitment, both for disseminating the group’s propaganda and for fostering support for the militant missives that it espouses. Within the country, a number of Islamist entities have also openly campaigned for ISIL, organising mass gatherings at which more than 2,000 Indonesians have expressed support for the group. ISIL’s influence in the Philippines isn’t thought to be as extensive as it is in either Malaysia or Indonesia. However, there are signs that the group has sought to extend its reach there, particularly in Mindanao, where at least two rebel groups have sworn allegiance to the organisation. Arguably more relevant in terms of ISIL’s threat to the Philippines is the potential for the estimated 2.5 million expatriates who live and work in the Middle East to be co-opted as a vehicle for jihadi recruitment or targeted for direct attacks. ISIL’s influence in Thailand has been marginal. Although intelligence sources believe it has tried to establish links among the separatist groups fighting in the kingdom’s so-called ‘deep south’, there’s so far been no sign that those attempts have yielded results. Responding to ISIL Indonesia officially banned ISIL in August 2014 and has since stepped up efforts to prevent nationals from going abroad to join the group. The government has also instituted organisational changes to boost the state’s capability for responding rapidly to domestic attacks and has stressed ‘soft’ hearts-and-minds efforts to counter ISIL ideology. These moves are a positive development, although problems remain. Jails continue to act as a hub for ISIL recruitment and propaganda; no moves have been made to outlaw support for the group’s radical ideology; measures aimed at proscribing travel to areas in the Middle East under caliphate control have been halting; and more effective strategies to monitor and regulate the ISIL ideological propaganda machine have yet to be put in place. Malaysia declared ISIL a terrorist organisation in August 2014 and just under a year later passed legislation that sanctions the arrest and confiscation of the travel documents of any person suspected of being linked to the group. The government’s legal powers to combat ISIL were further strengthened on 1 September 2015, when the 6 BlacK FlaG RisiNG: ISIL in Southeast Asia and Australia far-reaching Prevention of Terrorism Act came into effect. Organisational changes have also been made in the Royal Malaysia Police, and an anti-ISIL messaging campaign has been instituted. Malaysia has generally been credited with initiating an effective response to ISIL. However, three specific problems have been highlighted. First is the draconian nature of the Prevention of Terrorism Act, which has already sparked protest from civil libertarians and members of the country’s bar association. Second are the potential negative effects on national security that could result from the government’s deliberate politicisation of Islam as it tries to underscore its own religious credentials. Third, the country’s counter-narrative strategy has yet to offer its target demographic a viable, credible and resonant alternative message to ISIL propaganda. ISIL and Australia Beyond Southeast