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Western Balkans Regional Poll

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Western Balkans Regional Poll Western Balkans Regional Poll February 2, 2020 - March 6, 2020 Detailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute’s Center for Insights in Survey Research by Ipsos Bosnia and Herzegovina. • Data was collected through in-home, in-person interviews using the CAPI (computer-assisted personal interviewing) method in each of the sampled countries. In each country, the margin of error is calculated at the 95 percent confidence level for the midrange for the full sample size. Sample Margin of Response Country Fieldwork Dates Size Error Rate Bosnia and Herzegovina Feb. 7 – Feb. 29, 2020 n = 1,486 ±2.5 66% Kosovo Feb. 11 – Mar. 4, 2020 n = 1,517 ±2.5 85% North Macedonia Feb. 15 – Mar. 4, 2020 n = 1,472 ±2.6 70% Montenegro Feb. 2 – Feb. 28, 2020 n = 966 ±3.2 66% Serbia Feb. 10 - Mar. 6, 2020 n = 1,481 ±2.5 50% • Nationally representative samples for each state are based on a multistage stratification proportionate to population sample distribution. • Stage 1: PPS stratification across regions. • Stage 2: PPS stratification across urban and rural areas (defined by settlement). • Stage 3: Random selection of sampling points. • Households were selected using a random route technique with a right-hand rule. • Respondents were selected randomly using the Kish grid method. • Interviews were conducted in Albanian, Bosnian, Macedonian, Montenegrin and Serbian. • The data was weighted to the latest official census statistics for age, gender, educational attainment, urbanicity and region in each country. • Charts and graphs may not add up to exactly 100 percent due to rounding. • Cited bases are weighted. • The poll was funded by the National Endowment for Democracy. 2 Countries Polled Bosnia and Herzegovina Kosovo North Macedonia Montenegro Serbia 3 General Issues In general, would you say that our country is heading in the right direction or in the wrong direction? In the right direction In the wrong direction Don't know/Refused 53% 36% 11% 45% 47% 8% 33% 61% 6% 46% 49% 6% 10% 87% 3% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 5 Do you think that today’s generation of young people has a good future in our country or not? Good future Not a good future Don't know/Refused 34% 54% 12% 33% 58% 9% 17% 81% 2% 52% 42% 6% 11% 84% 6% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 6 What is the most important problem facing our country today? (Top five responses; spontaneous responses) Unemployment 22% Unemployment 34% Cost of living, high prices 21% Cost of living, high prices 13% Corruption 10% Corruption 8% Poverty 8% Poverty 7% Economy - other/general 4% Internal conflicts 5% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Unemployment 33% Unemployment 65% Cost of living, high prices 24% Corruption 11% Corruption 13% Cost of living, high prices 5% Economy - other/general 4% Healthcare 3% Poverty 4% Poverty 3% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Unemployment 39% Cost of living, high prices 14% Corruption 12% General political situation 5% Insecurity 4% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 7 What is the most important problem facing our country today? Bosnia and Herzegovina (Spontaneous response) Economy - unemployment 39% Economy - cost of living, high prices 14% Corruption 12% General political situation 5% Insecurity 4% Crime/public safety 4% Poverty 3% Economy - small business opportunities/access to loans 2% Economy - other/general 2% Internal conflicts 2% Healthcare 2% Pensions 2% None <1% Other* 9% Don't know/Refused 1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% *Responses receiving less than 1 percent are collapsed into Other. 8 What is the most important problem facing our country today? Kosovo (Spontaneous response) Economy - unemployment 65% Corruption 11% Economy - cost of living, high prices 5% Healthcare 3% Poverty 3% Economy - other/general 2% Education 2% Insecurity 1% Other* 8% Don't know/Refused <1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% *Responses receiving less than 1 percent are collapsed into Other. 9 What is the most important problem facing our country today? North Macedonia (Spontaneous response) Economy - unemployment 33% Economy - cost of living, high prices 24% Corruption 13% Economy - other/general 4% Poverty 4% Economy - small business opportunities/access to loans 3% Crime/public safety 3% General political situation 2% Insecurity 2% Internal conflicts 2% Healthcare 2% Other* 9% Don't know/Refused <1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% *Responses receiving less than 1 percent are collapsed into Other. 10 What is the most important problem facing our country today? Montenegro (Spontaneous response) Economy - unemployment 34% Economy - cost of living, high prices 13% Corruption 8% Poverty 7% Internal conflicts 5% Crime/public safety 4% General political situation 3% Pensions 2% Ethnic issues 2% Healthcare 2% Illicit drugs 2% Insecurity 2% Pollution 2% Natural disasters 1% Social services/benefits 1% Economy - other/general 1% Education 1% None <1% Other* 8% Don't know/Refused 1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% *Responses receiving less than 1 percent are collapsed into Other. 11 What is the most important problem facing our country today? Serbia (Spontaneous response) Economy - unemployment 22% Economy - cost of living, high prices 21% Corruption 10% Poverty 8% Economy - other/general 4% General political situation 3% Healthcare 3% Internal conflicts 2% Crime/public safety 2% Pensions 2% Insecurity 2% Agriculture 2% EU integration 1% Pollution 1% None <1% Other* 15% Don't know/Refused 1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% *Responses receiving less than 1 percent are collapsed into Other. 12 What specific issue should be the top priority for the government to address? Bosnia and Herzegovina (Spontaneous response) Employment 21% Corruption 8% The birth rate 7% Youth emigration/brain drain 7% Opening of factories, enterprises, workplaces, new jobs 5% Economy/industry 4% The increase in salaries/incomes 3% Youth employment 3% Emigration/migration 3% Low standard of living/quality of life 3% Change of system/regime/government 2% The increase in pensions 2% Healthcare 2% Politics/policies 2% Migrants 1% High prices 1% Poverty 1% Political instability 1% Crime 1% Politicians 1% Other* 6% Don't know/Refused 16% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% *Responses receiving less than 1 percent are collapsed into Other. 13 What specific issue should be the top priority for the government to address? Kosovo (Spontaneous response) Employment 34% Corruption 12% Economy/industry 7% Healthcare 7% Youth employment 5% The birth rate 4% Education 3% Poverty 2% Opening of factories, enterprises, workplaces, new jobs 1% Crime 1% Emigration/migration 1% Law enforcement/state of law 1% Youth emigration/brain drain 1% The increase in pensions 1% Other* 6% Don't know/Refused 13% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% *Responses receiving less than 1 percent are collapsed into Other. 14 What specific issue should be the top priority for the government to address? North Macedonia (Spontaneous response) Economy/Industry 17% Employment 14% The birth rate 7% Corruption 5% Youth employment 5% The increase in salaries/incomes 5% Emigration/migration 4% Low standard of living/quality of life 3% Healthcare 3% Youth emigration/Brain drain 3% Infrastructure 3% Opening of factories, enterprises, workplaces, new jobs 2% EU integration 2% Poverty 2% The increase in pensions 1% Judiciary 1% Crime 1% Pollution/environmental protection 1% Education 1% Other* 7% Don't know/Refused 14% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% *Responses receiving less than 1 percent are collapsed into Other. 15 What specific issue should be the top priority for the government to address? Montenegro (Spontaneous response) Employment 27% The birth rate 8% Church/religious Issues 7% Corruption 5% The increase in salaries/incomes 5% Economy/Industry 4% Opening of factories, enterprises, workplaces, new jobs 4% Crime 4% Low standard of living/quality of life 3% Poverty 3% Youth employment 2% Youth position/future 2% The increase in pensions 2% Education 1% Youth emigration/Brain drain 1% Healthcare 1% Pollution/environmental protection 1% Other* 7% Don't know/Refused 14% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% *Responses receiving less than 1 percent are collapsed into Other. 16 What specific issue should be the top priority for the government to address? Serbia (Spontaneous response) Employment 16% The birth rate 10% The increase in salaries/incomes 8% Low standard of living/quality of life 8% Corruption 6% Economy/Industry 5% Youth emigration/Brain drain 5% Youth employment 4% Kosovo 4% Healthcare 3% The increase in pensions 3% Opening of factories, enterprises, workplaces, new jobs 2% Poverty 2% High prices 2% To return the people to the villages/To help the villages/farmers 1% Agriculture 1% Youth position/future 1% Pollution/Environmental protection 1% Migrants 1% Crime 1% Social problems/policy 1% Education 1% Other* 7% Don't know/Refused 7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% *Responses receiving less than 1 percent are collapsed into Other. 17 How would you describe the current economic situation of your household? Very good Somewhat good Somewhat bad Very bad Don’t know/Refused 5% 52% 29% 13% 1% 9% 52% 27% 11% 2% 5% 56% 29% 10% 1% 10% 66% 22% 2%1% 6% 45% 32% 16% 2% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 18 When was life better for you, today or before the breakup of Yugoslavia? Today Before breakup Don't know/Refused 21% 57% 22% 37% 52% 11% 20% 62% 18% 73% 19% 7% 17% 62% 22% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 19 How important or unimportant is it that all members of our country’s adult population,
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