2

Table of Contents

Committees ...... 4

Sponsors ...... 5

Programme

Monday, 15 November 2010...... 6

Tuesday, 16 November 2010...... 9

Wednesday, 17 November 2010 ...... 11

Thursday, 18 November 2010 ...... 13

Friday, 19 November 2010 ...... 15

Poster Sessions ...... 17

Abstracts...... 25

3 Committees

Programme Committee

A. Belehaki (Co‐Chair, NOA & COST ES0803) A. Glover (Co‐Chair, ESA) M. Hapgood (RAL/STFC, SWWT) J.‐P. Luntama (ESA) R. Van der Linden (SIDC‐STCE) P. Vanlommel (STCE) T. Dudok de Wit (Univ. Orleans & SOTERIA) B. Zolesi (INGV) M. Messerotti (INAF & COST ES0803) V. Zigman (COST ES0803) M. Meier (DLR) N. Crosby (SWWT chair, BIRA‐IASB) J. Watermann (jfwConsult) M. Wik (Neurospace)

Local Organizing Committee

SIDC@Solar‐Terrestrial Centre of Excellence A. Vandersyppe P. Vanlommel E. D’Huys S. Willems R. Van der Linden S. Raynal

4 Sponsors

The European Space Agency

The Solar‐Terrestrial Center of Excellence, STCE

COST ESO803

The Belgian Science Policy

The International Space Environment Service

The European Office of Aerospace Research and Development, Air Force Office of Scientific Research, United States Air Force Research Laboratory

Rhea System S.A.

The Belgian Presidency of the Council of the European Union

U.R.S.I.

5 Seventh European Space Weather Week Programme

Monday, 15 November 2010

10:00 Training Course

11:00 ‐ 11:15 Coffee break

12:30 Lunch

13:30 Welcome

Session 1 ‐ SSA Space Weather in Support of European Critical Infrastructure Chairs: Alain Hilgers & Mats Ljungqvist;

14:30 ESA SSA SWE Element Status and near Future Plans Luntama, Juha‐Pekka 1; Glover, Alexi 1; Hilgers, Alain 2 1ESA, (SPAIN);), 2ESA, (The Netherlands)...... 25

14:45 Proposal for the Provision of Space Weather Segment Precursor Services ‐ in Support to ESA SSA reparatory Programme Reid, Simon RHEA System S.A., (BELGIUM) ...... 25

15:05 Implementation Design Study of Space Weather Instruments Norbert, Pailer 1; Bothmer, Volker 2; Kummer, Uwe 1; Honnen, Karl 1; Lang, Michael 1 1Astrium GmbH, Friedrichshafen, (GERMANY); 2University of Göttingen, (GERMANY)...... 25

15:30 HaSTeNet: a State‐of‐the‐Art H‐Alpha Solar Patrol Network for the SSA Clette, Frédéric 1; Temmer, Manuela 2; Veronig, Astrid 2; Zuccarello, Francesca 3; Malherbe, Jean‐Marie 4 1Observatoire Royal de Belgique, (BELGIUM); 2Kanzelhohe Observatory, Universitat Graz, (AUSTRIA); 3Osservatorio Astrofisico di Catania, Universita' di Catania, (ITALY); 4Observatoire de Paris‐Meudon, LESIA, (FRANCE) ...... 26

15:40 EISCAT_3D: A European Imaging Radar for Space Weather Research McCrea, Ian STFC Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, (UNITED KINGDOM)...... 26

15:50 Space Weather: Recent Programmatic Developments in the UK Hapgood, Mike 1; Thomson, Alan 2; Jones, Bryn 3; Horne, Richard 4 1STFC Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, (UNITED KINGDOM); 2British Geological Survey, (UNITED KINGDOM); 3SolarMetrics, (UNITED KINGDOM); 4British Antarctic Survey, (UNITED KINGDOM) ...... 26

16:00 Coffee break

16:30 Overview of Space Weather and SSA Activities in EU Research Ljungqvist, Mats European Commission, (BELGIUM)...... 27

16:39 European Risk from Geomagnetically Induced Currents (EURISGIC) Viljanen, Ari 1; Pirjola, Risto 1; Pulkkinen, Antti 2; Sakharov, Yaroslav 3; Thomson, Alan 4; Wesztergom, Viktor 5; Wik, Magnus 6; Wintoft, Peter 7 1Finnish Meteorological Institute, (FINLAND); 2CUA/IACS at NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, (UNITED STATES); 3Polar Geophysical Institute, (RUSSIAN FEDERATION); 4British Geological Survey, (UNITED KINGDOM); 5Geodetic and Geophysical Research Institute, (HUNGARY); 6NeuroSpace, (SWEDEN); 7Swedish Institute of Space Physics, (SWEDEN) ...... 27

6 16:48 Advanced Thermosphere Modelling for Orbit Prediction (ATMOP) Menvielle, Michel 1; Sánchez‐Ortiz, Noelia 2; Aylward, Alan 3; Bruinsma, Sean 4; Jackson, David 5; Lathuillère, Chantal 6; Sladek, Oto 7; Valette, Jean Jacques 8; Dudok de Wit, Thierry 9; Watermann, Jurgen 9; Bushell, Andrew 5 1LATMOS, CNRS/IPSL, (FRANCE); 2DEIMOS Space, (SPAIN); 3University College London, UCL, (UNITED KINGDOM); 4Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales, CNES, (FRANCE); 5Met Office, (UNITED KINGDOM); 6Laboratoire de Planétologie de Grenoble, UJF‐ CNRS, (FRANCE); 7Kybertec S.R.O, (CZECH REPUBLIC); 8Collecte Localisation Satellites, CLS, (FRANCE); 9LPC2E, CNRS and University of Orléans, (FRANCE) ...... 27

16:57 AFFECTS (Advanced Forecast For Ensuring Communications Through Space) Bothmer, Volker 1; Team, AFFECTS 2 1University of Goettingen, (GERMANY); 2International, (GERMANY) ...... 28

17:06 Cigala: an fp7 Project to tackle Ionospheric Scintillation Threat to Gnss Operations in Latin America Bougard, Bruno 1; De Franceschi, Giorgiana 2; Aquino, Marcio 3; Galera Monico, Joao 4; Saut, Carine 5; Fererra Da Silva, Elcia 6; Forte, Biagio 7; Wernik, Andrzej 8 1Septentrio Satellite Navigation, (BELGIUM); 2INGV, (ITALY); 3University of Nottingham, (UNITED KINGDOM); 4UNESP, (BRAZIL); 5Pildo Labs, (SPAIN); 6Consultgel, (BRAZIL); 7University of Nova Gorica, (SLOVENIA); 8Polish Academy of Sciences, (POLAND) ...... 28

17:15 A new, Ground Based Data‐Assimilative Model of the Plasmasphere ‐ a Critical Contribution to RB modeling for SW Purposes Lichtenberger, Janos 1; Clilverd, Mark 2; Heilig, Balazs 3; Vellanate, Massimo 4; Ulich, Thomas 5; Rodger, Craig 6; Collier, Andrew 7; Jorgensen, Anders 8; Reda, Jan 9; Holzworth, Bob 10; Friedel, Reiner 11 1Eotvos University, (HUNGARY); 2British Antartctic Survey, (UNITED KINGDOM); 3Eotvos Lorand Geophysical Institute, (HUNGARY); 4University of L'Aquila, (ITALY); 5University of Oulu, (FINLAND); 6University of Otago, (NEW ZEALAND); 7Hermanus Magnetic Observatory, (SOUTH AFRICA); 8New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, (UNITED STATES); 9Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences, (POLAND); 10University of Washington, (UNITED STATES); 11Los Alamos National Laboratory, (UNITED STATES) ...... 29

17:24 Protecting space assets from high energy particles by developing European dynamic modelling and forecasting capabilities (SPACECAST) Horne, Richard ; Koskinen, Hannu ; Ganjushkina, Natalia ; Boscher, Daniel ; Sanahuja, Blai ; Poedts, Stefaan ; Jacobs, Carla ; Heynderickx, Daniel British Antarctic Survey, (UNITED KINGDOM)...... 29

17:33 COMESEP: Forecasting the Space Weather Impact Crosby, Norma 1; Veronig, Astrid 2; Robbrecht, Eva 3; Vrsnak, Bojan 4; Vennerstrom, Susanne 5; Malandraki, Olga 6; Dalla, Silvia 7; Farrugia, Charlie 8 1Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy, (BELGIUM); 2University of Graz, (AUSTRIA); 3Royal Observatory of Belgium, (BELGIUM); 4Hvar Observatory, (CROATIA); 5Technical University of Denmark, (DENMARK); 6National Observatory of Athens, (GREECE); 7University of Central Lancashire, (UNITED KINGDOM); 8The University of New Hampshire, (UNITED STATES) ...... 30

17:42 FP7 Project SWIFF ‐ Space Weather Integrated Forecasting Framework Lapenta, Giovanni Catholic University Leuven, (BELGIUM)...... 30

17:51 Space Weather Research in Ukraine Parnowski, Aleksei 1; Korepanov, Valeriy 2; Cheremnykh, Oleg 1 1Space Research Institute NASU & NSAU, (UKRAINE); 2L'viv Center of Space Research Institute NASU & NSAU, (UKRAINE)...... 30

7 18:00 Key note lecture and Welcome Reception Key note lecture: David Southwood, ESA Director of Science and Robotic Exploration

The keynote lecture is followed by a reception in the Museum‐Gallery Xpo Salvador Dali in the Belfort. We offer you a drink and some fingerfoods with the Dali art work in the background.

Museum‐Gallery XPO Salvador DALI ‐ Belfry Address: Markt, 7, Brugge

The Dali expo is situated at walking distance from the Oud Sint Jan Conference Centre.

8 Tuesday, 16 November 2009

Session 2 Spacecraft Environments and Effects Chairs: Eamonn Daly & Viviane Pierrard

09:00 Recent Developments in Dynamic Modelling of the Earth's Radiation Belts Horne, Richard ; Glauert , Sarah ; Meredith, Nigel British Antarctic Survey, (UNITED KINGDOM)...... 30

09:25 The Transient Observation‐based Particle (TOP) Model and its Potential Application in Radiation Effects Evaluation Benck, Sylvie ; Cyamukungu, Mathias ; Cabrera, Juan ; Pierrard, Viviane Center for Space Radiations at UCL, (BELGIUM)...... 31

09:40 Space Weather in Medium Earth Orbit During Solar Cycle 24 Decline and Start‐up of Cycle 25 Evans, H.D.R. 1; Nieminen, P. 1; Daly, E. 1; Buehler, P. 2; Buehler, P. 2; Hajdas, W. 3; Mohammadzadeh, A. 1; Ryden, K. 4 1ESA, (NETHERLANDS); 2P. Buehler, (AUSTRIA); 3Paul Scherrer Institut, (SWITZERLAND); 4QinetiQ, (UNITED KINGDOM) ...... 31

10:00 Space Environment Measurements by JAXA Satellites and ISS ‐ Results and Future Plan Obara, Takahiro ; Matsumoto, Haruhisa ; Koga, Kiyokazu JAXA, (JAPAN)...... 31

10:15 Monitoring of Space Ionizing Radiation in Russian Federal Space Agency Ishutin, I.O. 1; Anashin, V.S. 2; Emelyanov, V.V. 2; Milovanov, Y.A. 2 1Space Device Engineering Institute, (RUSSIAN FEDERATION); 2Space Device Engineering Institute, Russian Federal Space Agency, (RUSSIAN FEDERATION)...... 32

10:30 Coffee break

11:00 The Commercial Spacecraft Operator's View of Space Weather Pitchford, Dave SES ENGINEERING, (LUXEMBOURG) ...... 32

11:25 Space Weather Conditions at the Time of the Galaxy 15 Spacecraft Anomaly‐ Report by the NOAA Tiger Team Onsager, Terry 1; Denig, W. F. 2; Rodriguez, J. V. 3; Singer, H. J. 4; Lotoniu, T. M. 3; Biesecker, D. 4; Wilkinson, D. C. 2; Green, J. 1 1NOAA, (UNITED STATES); 2NOAA/ National Geophysical Data Center, (UNITED STATES); 3University of Colorado, CIRES, (UNITED STATES); 4NOAA/Space Weather Prediction Center, (UNITED STATES) .. 32

11:45 On‐Orbit Anomalies: Investigations and Root Cause Determination Ecoffet, Robert CNES, (FRANCE)...... 33

12:10 Impact of the Particle Environment on SWAP and LYRA Data Dominique, Marie 1; Berghmans, David 1; Dolla, Laurent 1; Schmutz, Werner 2 1Royal Observatory of Belgium, (BELGIUM); 2Physikalisch‐Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos (PMOD/WRC), (SWITZERLAND)...... 33

12:30‐14:00 Lunch break

14:00 Splinter Session 1

Ambassadeur room Bach room Beethoven room Cost MC SEPEM SWWT Ground Effects Topical Group, GETG A. Belehaki N. Crosby L. Trichtchenko D. Heynderickx

9 16:00 Coffee break

16:30 Splinter Session 2

Ambassadeur room Bach room Beethoven room Ulisse Observations and measurements of SWWT Topical Group: Spacecraft, the first solar and geomagnetic events Aircraft and Launcher Environments of Solar Cycle 24 H. Rothkael P. Nieminen S. McKenna Lawlor G. Reitz F. di Marco

18:30 Debate – Human Exploration of Space

10 Wednesday, 17 November 2009

Session 3 Tracking Heliospheric Phenomena: New Observing and Analysis Strategies Chairs: David Berghmans & Robert Walsh

09:00 AIA Observations of CMEs Golub, Leon Harvard‐Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, (UNITED STATES)...... 33

09:20 The Emerging Informatics Infrastructure for Heliophysics Ireland, Jack ADNET Systems, Inc./NASA GSFC, (UNITED STATES)...... 33

09:40 A Three‐Dimensional SWAP‐STEREO Reconstruction of a Mass‐Loading Type Eruption Seaton, Daniel ; Mierla, Marilena ; Berghmans, David ; Dolla, Laurent ; Zhukov, Andrei Royal Observatory of Belgium, (BELGIUM)...... 34

10:00 Current and Planned Observational and Modeling Capabilities at the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Onsager, Terry ; Viereck, Rodney NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center, (UNITED STATES) ...... 34

10:30 Coffee break

11:00 Coronal Holes and High‐Speed Solar Wind Streams Krista, Larisza ; Gallagher, Peter Trinity College Dublin, (IRELAND)...... 34

11:15 Fine Structure of the Solar Inner Corona and its Relationship with Coronal Streams Slemzin, Vladimir 1; Urnov, Alexander 1; Kuzin, Sergey 1; Harra, Louise 2; Berghmans, David 3; Goryaev, Farid 3 1P.N. Lebedev Physical Institute, (RUSSIAN FEDERATION); 2UCL‐MSSL, (UNITED KINGDOM); 3Royal Observatory of Belgium, (BELGIUM)...... 34

11:30 New Models and Observational Strategies for reconstructing the Solar Spectral Irradiance for Space Weather Applications Cessateur, Gaël 1; Dudok de Wit, Thierry 1; Kretzschmar, Matthieu 1; Vieira, Luis Eduardo 1; Lilensten, Jean 2 1LPC2E, University of Orléans, (FRANCE); 2LPG, University of Grenoble, (FRANCE) ...... 35

11:45 Temporal and Frequency Variations of Flares observed by LYRA Onboard of PROBA2. Zender, J. 1; Foing, B. 1; Vagg, D. 2; Dominique, M. 3; Dammasch, I. 3; Schmutz, W. 4 1ESA/ESTEC/SRE, (NETHERLANDS); 2Waterford University, (IRELAND); 3Royal Observatory of Belgium, (BELGIUM); 4 Physikalisch‐Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos, (SWITZERLAND)...... 35

12:00 Tracking CMEs from Sun to Earth Temmer, Manuela 1; Möstl, Christian 2; Rollett, Tanja 1; Veronig, Astrid 1; Flor, Olga 1 1Institute of Physics, University of Graz, (AUSTRIA); 2Space Research Institute, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Graz, (AUSTRIA) ...... 35

12:15 Can a Halo CME from the Limb be Geoeffective? Cid, Consuelo University of Alcala, (SPAIN) ...... 35

12:30‐14:30 Lunch break

12:30 Lunchtime meetings 1

Beethoven room Bach room Cost MC SWWT Topical Group: Atmospheric Effects A. Belehaki S. Bruinsma

11 14:30 Splinter session 3

Beethoven room Space Weather Working Team Plenary Meeting N. Crosby

16:30 – 19:30 Space Weather Fair and Poster Session. Coffee available.

17:30 Beer tasting

12 Thursday, 18 November 2010

Session 4 Space Weather Products and Services Chairs: Christian Jacquey & Larisa Trichtchenko;

09:00 Monitoring of Auroral Oval Location and Geomagnetic Activity based on Magnetic Data from LEO Satellites. Vennerstrom, Susanne Technical University of Denmark, (DENMARK) ...... 36

09:15 SWAP and LYRA Onboard PROBA2, new EUV Instruments for Space Weather monitoring De Groof, Anik 1; Berghmans, David 2; Dominique, Marie 2 1ESA c/o Royal Observatory of Belgium, (BELGIUM); 2Royal Observatory of Belgium, (BELGIUM) ...... 36

09:30 Creating an SEP Flux Database from ESA/SREM Measurements Sandberg, Ingmar 1; Daglis, Ioannis 2; Anastasiadis, Anastasios 2; Petteri, Nieminen 3; Daly, Eamonn 3 1National Observatory of Athens, (GREECE); 2Institute for Space Applications and Remote Sensing, National Observatory of Athens, (GREECE); 3European Space Agency, ESTEC, (NETHERLANDS)...... 36

09:45 Potential Use of NMDB for the real‐time Observation and Specification of the near‐Earth Radiation Environment Steigies, Christian Christian‐Albrechts‐Universität zu Kiel, (GERMANY)...... 37

10:00 CMA Activities in Space Weather Observation Zhang, Xiaoxin National Center for Space Weather, (CHINA) ...... 37

10:15 Operational Products of the Space Weather Application Center Ionosphere (SWACI) and Capabilities of their Use Jakowski, Norbert ; Borries, Claudia ; Wilken, Volker ; Missling, Klaus‐Dieter ; Barkmann, Henrike ; Hoque, Mohammed Mainul ; Koch, Christian ; Danielides, Michael German Aerospace Center, (GERMANY)...... 37

10:30 Coffee break

11:00 NOAA’s Space Weather Services: Research Needs, Opportunities, and Challenges Bogdan, T.J.; Onsager, T.G. NOAA‐SWPC, (UNITED STATES) ...... 38

11:30 The Soteria Virtual Observatory : Offering Users Easier Way to discover Data Callebaut, Benoit ; Berghmans, David Royal Observatory of Belgium, (BELGIUM);...... 38

11:45 The HELIO/HEC TSRS Catalogue of dm Solar Radio Events Messerotti, Mauro ; Alberti, Valentina ; Santin, Andrej ; Marassi, Alessandro INAF‐Astronomical Observatory of Trieste, (ITALY) ...... 38

12:00 CASSIS ‐ Moving forwards on Standards and Interoperability Bentley, Robert 1; Lapenta, Giovanni 2; Blanc, Michel 3; Csillaghy, Andre 4; Berghmans, David 5; Capria, Maria Teresa 6; Jacquey, Christian 7; Fouchet, Thierry 8 1University College London, (UNITED KINGDOM); 2Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, (BELGIUM); 3National Centre for Scientific Research, (FRANCE); 4Fachhochschule Nordwestschweiz, (SWITZERLAND); 5Royal Observatory of Belgium, (BELGIUM); 6Istituto Nazionale di Astrophisica, (ITALY); 7Universite Paul Sabatier Toulouse III, (FRANCE); 8Observatoire de Paris, (FRANCE) ...... 39

12:15 The Virtual Space weather Applications Network of Tools (ViSpaNeT) ‐ A Virtual Observatory for Data and Modelling Assets Beltrami Karlezi, Pablo 1; Hake, Philipp 1; Gangloff, Michel 2; Lazaro, Didier 3; Heynderickx, Daniel 4; Wintoft, Peter 5; Hilgers, Alain 6; Bourdarie, Sebastian 3 1etamax space, (GERMANY); 2Université Paul Sabatier Toulouse, (FRANCE); 3ONERA, (FRANCE); 4DH Consultancy, (BELGIUM); 5IRF, (SWEDEN); 6ESA/ESTEC, (NETHERLANDS)...... 39 13

12:30‐14:00 Lunch break

12:30 Lunchtime meetings 2

Beethoven room COST MC A. Belehaki

14:00 Splinter session 4

Ambassadeur room Bach room Beethoven room Direct Effects of Solar Radio Weather SWWT Topical Group: Education, Validation Procedures for Space Outreach and Emerging Markets Weather Models M. Messerotti N. Crosby I. Tsagouri P. Wintoft J. Watermann

16:00 Coffee break

16:30 Splinter session 5

Ambassadeur room Bach room Beethoven room The Physics of CME Initiation SWWT Topical Group: Ionospheric SW Tools, Products and Services Effects Work Meeting towards the next chapter G. Lapenta J.P. Luntama G. Lawrence S. Poedts D. Heynderickx

19:00‐22:30 Conference Dinner at the Celebration Church

Address: Celebrations Church Vlamingstraat 86 at Brugge

14 Friday 19 November 2010

Session 5 Space Weather Models: from Research to Applications Chairs: Blai Sanahuja & Susanne Vennerstroem

09:00 Automated Solar Flare Prediction: Is it a Myth? Colak, Tufan 1; Ahmed, Omar Wahab 1; Qahwaji, Rami 1; Higgins, Paul 2 1University of Bradford, (UNITED KINGDOM); 2University of Bradford, (IRELAND) ...... 40

09:15 ESA Solar Energetic Particle Environment Modelling Project SEPEM: Building the Underpinning Models Crosby, Norma Bock 1; Glover, Alexi 2; Aran, Angels 3; Bonnevie, Cédric 4; Dyer, Clive 5; Ford, Karen 5; Gabriel, Steve 6; Hands, Alex 5; Heynderickx, Daniel 7; Jacobs, Carla 8; Jiggens, Piers 3; King, David 5; Poedts, Stefaan 8; Sanahuja, Blai 9; Truscott, Pete 5 1Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy, (BELGIUM); 2ESA/ESAC, (SPAIN); 3ESA/ESTEC, (NETHERLANDS); 4BISA/RHEA, (BELGIUM); 5QinetiQ, (UNITED KINGDOM); 6University of Southampton, (UNITED KINGDOM); 7DH Consultancy, (BELGIUM); 8K.U. Leuven, (BELGIUM); 9University of Barcelona, (SPAIN)...... 40

09:30 Transitioning Space Science Models from Research to Operations: Challenges and Opportunities Hesse, Michael ; Kuznetsova, Masha ; Rastaetter, Lutz ; MacNeice, Peter ; Taktaksihvili, Alexandre ; Shim, Ja Soon ; Pulkkinen, Antti ; Zheng, Yihua ; Maddox, Marlo ; Berrios, David NASA GSFC, (UNITED STATES)...... 40

10:00 Application of Data Assimilation to Solar Wind Forecasting Models Lapenta, Giovanni 1; Innocenti, Maria Elena 2; Vrsnak, Bojan 3; Temmer, Manuela 4; Veronig, A 4; Crespon, F 5; Skandrani, C 5; Lee, E 2 1KU Leuven, (BELGIUM); 2Centrum voor Plasma‐Astrofysica, Departement Wiskunde, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Leuven, Belgi, (BELGIUM); 3Hvar Observatory, Faculty of Geodesy, Zagreb, Croatia., (CROATIA); 4Institute of Physics, University of Graz, Graz, Austria., (AUSTRIA); 5Noveltis, Ramonville‐Saint‐Agne, France, (FRANCE)...... 40

10:15 Real‐Time Reconstructions of the Solar Irradiance for Space Weather Applications in the SOTERIA Project Framework Vieira, Luis Eduardo ; Dudok de Wit, Thierry ; Kretzschmar, Matthieu ; Gaël, Cessateur CNRS and University of Orleans, (FRANCE)...... 41

10:30 Coffee break

11:00 Modeling Geomagnetic Cutoffs for Space Weather Applications Kress, Brian T. 1; Mertens, Christopher J. 2; Wiltberger, Michael 3 1Dartmouth College, (UNITED STATES); 2NASA Langley Research Center, (UNITED STATES); 3National Center for Atmospheric Research, High Altitude Observatory, (UNITED STATES) ...... 41

11:30 Solar Shield Project ‐ Lessons learned and Advances made Pulkkinen, Antti 1; Hesse, Michael 2; Habib, Shahid 2; Van der Zel, Luke 3; Damsky, Ben 3; Policelli, Fritz 2; Fugate, David 4; Jacobs, William 4; Creamer, Elizabeth 2 1Catholic University of America, (UNITED STATES); 2NASA, (UNITED STATES); 3EPRI, (UNITED STATES); 4ERM, (UNITED STATES) ...... 42

11:45 Space weather effects on Yamal – Europe transit gas pipeline: recent developments and prospects for coming decade Salikhov, Zulfar 1; Arabskii, Anatoly 1; Zaitsev, Alexander 2; Petrov, Valery 2 1Gasprom‐Dobycha‐Yamburg, (RUSSIAN FEDERATION); 2IZMIRAN, (RUSSIAN FEDERATION)...... 42

12:00 A Global Ionosphere Scintillation Propagation Model for Equatorial Regions Beniguel, Yannick IEEA, (FRANCE)...... 43

15 12:15 Model and Visualization Software for the Nowcasting of the Middle Atmosphere Rozanov, Eugene 1; Egorova, Tatiana 2; Hochmuth, Nicky 3; Shapiro, Alexander 2; Shapiro, Anna 1; Schmutz, Werner 2 1PMOD/WRC and IAC ETHZ, (SWITZERLAND); 2PMOD/WRC, (SWITZERLAND); 3Institut für 4D‐Technologien, Fachhochschule Nordwestschweiz, (SWITZERLAND) ...... 43

12:30 Splinter Summary

13:00‐13:30 Awards and Close

16 Poster Sessions: Posters will be available all week, authors are requested to be in attendance during the poster session Wednesday 17th 16:30 – 18:30

Poster session 1 SSA Space Weather in Support of European Critical Infrastructure Chairs: Alain Hilgers & Mats Ljungqvist

P1.01 Next‐Generation Space‐Borne Instrumentation for Space‐Weather monitoring and Forecast Rodmann, Jens ; Daly, Eamonn ; Drolshagen, Gerhard ; Hilgers, Alain ; Jiggens, Piers ; Menicucci, Alessandra ; Nieminen, Petteri ; Rodgers, David ; Santin, Giovanni ESA/ESTEC, (NETHERLANDS)...... 43

P1.02 CINEMA/TRIO: A Three‐Spacecraft Space Weather CubeSat Mission Horbury, Timothy 1; Brown, Patrick 1; Eastwood, Jonathan 1; Lin, Robert 2; Immel, Thomas 2; Glaser, David 2; Lee, Dong‐Hun 3; Seon, Jongho 3; Jin, Ho 3 1Imperial College London, (UNITED KINGDOM); 2Space Science Lab, UC Berkeley, (UNITED STATES); 3School of Space Research, Kyung Hee University, Yongin, (REPUBLIC OF KOREA) ...... 44

P1.03 EISCAT_3D: Development of a large Near‐Earth Space monitoring System in Europe Ulich, Thomas Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory, (FINLAND) ...... 44

P1.04 Effects of geomagnetic disturbances on Oktyabrskaya railway in Russia Sakharov, Yaroslav 1; Katkalov, Yury 2; Kudryashova, Nataly 2; Danilin, Arkadij 3; Shabalin, Anatoliy 4; Pirjola, Risto 5; Viljanen, Ari 5 1Polar Geophysical Institute, (RUSSIAN FEDERATION); 2Polar Geophysical Institure, (RUSSIAN FEDERATION); 3Kola Sceince Center RAS, (RUSSIAN FEDERATION); 4Oktyabrskaya railway, (RUSSIAN FEDERATION); 5Finnish Meteorological Institute, (FINLAND) ...... 44

Poster session 2 Spacecraft Environments and Effects Chairs: Eamonn Daly & Viviane Pierrard

P2.01 The Influence of the Plasmasphere in the Space Environment Pierrard, Viviane 1; Benck, Sylvie 2; Darrouzet, Fabien 1; Cabrera, Juan 2; Voiculescu, Mirela 3 1Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy, (BELGIUM); 2Center for Space Radiations, UCL, (BELGIUM); 33. Faculty of Sciences and Environment, Dunarea de Jos University of Galati, (ROMANIA)...... 45

P2.02 DEMOCRITUS: An Adaptive Particle In Cell (PIC) Code for teh Simulation of Satellite‐Environment Interactions Lapenta, Giovanni KU Leuven, (BELGIUM)...... 45

P2.03 Instantaneous Wave Vector of low Frequency Waves in the Downstream of Earth's Bow Shock Nathaniel, Ekong ; Beloff, N. ; Buckley, A. University of Sussex, (UNITED KINGDOM) ...... 45

P2.04 Simulation of Surface charging in Dusty Plasma Environment Anuar, Abul 1; Honary, Farideh 1; Hapgood, Mike 2 1Lancaster University, (UNITED KINGDOM); 2CLRC Royal Appleton Laboratory, (UNITED KINGDOM)...... 45

P2.05 Earth Radiation Environment in the Declining Phase of the 23rd Solar Cycle Dachev, Tsvetan 1; Ploc, Ondrej 2 1Space and Solar‐Terrestrial Research Institute at Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia, Bulgaria, td, (BULGARIA); 2Nuclear Physics Institute at Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic, [email protected], (CZECH REPUBLIC) ...... 46

P2.06 Solar Corona and Plasma Effects on Radio Frequency Waves Dehant, Veronique ; Nkono, Collin ; Rosenblatt, Pascal Royal Observatory of Belgium, (BELGIUM)...... 46

17 P2.07 Radiation‐Induced Failure Rate Predictions for METOP HRPT Operations Evans, Hugh ; Daly, Eamonn ; Santin, Giovanni ; Strijk, S. ; Sturesson, S. ESA, (NETHERLANDS) ...... 46

P2.08 Space Weather on the Moon Cipriani, F. ; Hilgers, A. ; Rodgers, D. ; Nieminen, P. ; Nieminen, P. ESA, (NETHERLANDS) ...... 47

P2.09 CR Ionization in the Earth Atmosphere on 20 January 2005 Obtained with Monte Carlo Simulation Velinov, Peter 1; Mishev, Alexander 2 1Space and Solar‐Terrestrial Research Institute, (BULGARIA); 2Nuclear Regulatory Agency, Sofaa, (BULGARIA) .. 47

P2.10 Role of Non‐Resonant Wave‐Particle Interactions on Relativistic Electron Flux in Radiation Belts during Magnetic Storms Lemaire, Joseph 1; Cabrera, Juan 1; Benck, Sylvie 1; Cyamukungu, Mathias 1; Pierrard, Viviane 2 1Center for Space Radiations at UCL, (BELGIUM); 2Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy, (BELGIUM) ...... 48

Poster session 3 Tracking Heliospheric Phenomena: New Observing and Analysis Strategies Chairs: David Berghmans & Robert Walsh

P3.01 Prestorm NmF2 Enhancements at low Latitudes: One more Delusion? Mikhailov, Andrei 1; Perrone, Loredana 2 1Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation (IZMIRAN), (RUSSIAN FEDERATION); 2Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), (ITALY)...... 49

P3.02 Tracking Intense Geomagnetic Storms to the Interplanetary Medium and Solar Sources. A Case Study Schmieder, Brigitte 1; Mandrini, Cristina 2; Démoulin, Pascal 1; Dasso, Sergio 2; Cid, Consuelo 3 1Observatoire de Paris, (FRANCE); 2IAFE, (ARGENTINA); 3University of Alcala, (SPAIN) ...... 49

P3.03 Ozone Distribution due to Solar Cosmic Rays in October‐November 2003 at Middle and High Geomagnetic Latitudes Velinov, Peter 1; Tassev, Yordan 1; Mateev, Lachezar 1; Mishev, Alexander 2 1SPACE AND SOLAR‐TERRESTRIAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE, (BULGARIA); 2NUCLEAR REGULATORY AGENCY‐ BULGARIA, (BULGARIA)...... 50

P3.10 Trend of Photospheric Magnetic Helicity Flux in Active Regions generating Halo Coronal Mass Ejections Zuccarello, Francesco 1; Zuccarello, Francesca 2; Smyrli, Aimilia 2; Romano, Paolo 3; Poedts, Stefaan 1 1CPA/KULeuven, (BELGIUM); 2Catania University, (ITALY); 3INAF‐OACT, (ITALY) ...... 51

P3.11 MHD modeling of ICMEs Encountering both Earth and Mars Falkenberg, Thea 1; Vennerstrom, Susanne 1; Pulkkinen, Antti 2; Taktakishvili, Aleksandre 2; Brain, Dave 3; Delory, Gregory 3; Mitchell, David 3 1DTU Space, (DENMARK); 2Goddard Space Flight Center, (UNITED STATES); 3University of California, Berkeley, (UNITED STATES)...... 51

P3.12 The Coronal Electron Density Profiles derived from Radio Observations Magdalenic, Jasmina ; Marque, Christophe SIDC, Royal Observatory of Belgium, (BELGIUM)...... 51

P3.13 The Search for a Trend in Total Solar Irradiance Observations: new Evidence from a Statistical Approach Dudok de Wit, Thierry 1; Vieira, Luis 2 1University of Orléans, (FRANCE); 2LPC2E, (FRANCE) ...... 52

P3.14 Automatic Determination of the Conic Coronal Mass Ejection Model Parameters Pulkkinen, Antti 1; Oates, Tim 2; Taktakishvili, Aleksandre 2 1Catholic University of America, (UNITED STATES); 2UMBC, (UNITED STATES)...... 52

18 P3.15 New Insights in Disk Signatures of CMEs as revealed by Multi‐Wavelength EUV Observations Robbrecht, Eva Royal Observatory of Belgium, (BELGIUM)...... 52

P3.16 Tracking CMEs from the Sun to Geospace Bothmer, Volker 1; Liu, Ying 2; Davies, Jackie 3; Bosman, Eckard 4 1University of Goettingen, (GERMANY); 2Space Sciences Laboratory/UC Berkeley, (UNITED STATES); 3Space Science and Technology Department/Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, (UNITED KINGDOM); 4Institute for Astrophysics/University of Goettingen, (GERMANY) ...... 53

P3.17 Cosmic Ray Modulation by Solar Wind Disturbances Dumbovic, M. ; Vrsnak, B. ; Calogovic, J. ; Karlica, M. Hvar Observatory, Faculty of Geodesy, (CROATIA) ...... 53

P3.18 Solar Irradiance Variations of an Active Region observed with SWAP and LYRA Dammasch, Ingolf 1; Yalim, Mehmet Sarp 2; Seaton, Daniel 1 1Royal Observatory of Belgium, SIDC, (BELGIUM); 2K. U. Leuven, CPA, (BELGIUM)...... 53

P3.19 Monitoring ULF Wave Influence on Radiation Belt Dynamics Daglis, Ioannis A. 1; Balasis, Georgios 1; Papadimitriou, Constantinos 2; Zesta, Eftyhia 3; Anastasiadis, Anastasios 1 1National Observatory of Athens, (GREECE); 2University of Athens, (GREECE); 3Air Force Research Lab, (UNITED STATES) ...... 53

P3.20 Multispacecraft Observations of 3 and 8 April 2010 Coronal Mass Ejections Mierla, Marilena 1; Rodriguez, Luciano 1; Berghmans, David 1; Besliu‐Ionescu, Diana 2; Chifu, Iulia 3; Dammasch, Ingolf 1; de Groof, Anik 4; Demetrescu, Crisan 2; Dobrica, Venera 2; Gissot, Samuel 1; Hochedez, Jean‐Francois 1; Inhester, Bernd 3; Magdalenic, Jasmina 1; Maris, Georgeta 2; Nitoiu, Daniela 2; Seaton, Daniel 1; Srivastava, Nandita 5; West, Matt 1; Zhukov, Andrei 1 1Royal Observatory of Belgium, (BELGIUM); 2Institute of Geodynamics of Romanian Academy, (ROMANIA); 3Max‐Planck Institute for Solar System Research, (GERMANY); 4European Space Agency, (BELGIUM); 5Udaipur Solar Observatory, (INDIA)...... 54

P3.21 HELIO, tracking of Heliospheric Phenomena Aboudarham, Jean 1; Bentley, Robert, B. 2; Csillaghy, André 3 1Observatoire de Paris‐Meudon, (FRANCE); 2MSSL, UCL, (UNITED KINGDOM); 3FHNW, (SWITZERLAND)...... 54

P3.22 Solar Energetic Particles and Magnetic Storms: their Competing Roles in Radiation Belt Variability Daglis, Ioannis 1; Sandberg, Ingmar 2; Balasis, Georgios 2; Anastasiadis, Anastasios 2; Nieminen, Petteri 3; Daly, Eamonn 3 1National Observatory of Athens, (GREECE); 2NOA/ISARS, (GREECE); 3ESA/ESTEC, (NETHERLANDS)...... 54

Poster session 4 Space Weather Products and Services Chairs: Christian Jacquey & Larisa Trichtchenko

P4.01 Data based Quest for Solar Wind‐Magnetosphere coupling Function Balikhin, Michael ; Billings , Stephen ; Boynton, Richard University of Sheffield, (UNITED KINGDOM)...... 55

P4.02 TEC Variations and Ionospheric Disturbances over Europe during the August 2010 Storm Event. Bergeot, Nicolas ; Burston, Robert ; Legrand, Juliette ; Chevalier, Jean‐Marie ; Bruyninx, Carine ; Defraigne, Pascale ; Baire, Quentin ; Pottiaux, Eric Royal Observatory of Belgium, (BELGIUM)...... 55

P4.03 Can we use ELF Ionospheric Plasma Turbulence as a Precursor of the Strong Earthquakes? Blecki, Jan 1; Parrot, Michel 2; Wronowski, Roman 1; Kosciesza , Malgorzata 1 1Space Research Centre, (POLAND); 2LPC2E, (FRANCE) ...... 55

19 P4.04 Vertical Characteristic of Midlatitude E and F Ionospheric Drifts. Boska, Josef ; Kouba, Daniel ; Sauli, Petra Institute of Atm.Phys. ASCR, (CZECH REPUBLIC) ...... 55

P4.05 "Tonokard" Experiment: Sensitivity of Vascular Tone Parameters to Meteorological and Geomagnetic Factors Gurfinkel , Yu.I. 1; Zenchenko, T.A. 2; Ozheredov , V.A 3; Breus, T.K. 3 1Central Clinical Hospital JSC "Russian Railways", Moscow, (RUSSIAN FEDERATION); 2Institute of Theoretical and Experimental Biophysics of RAS, Pushchino, Moscow region, (RUSSIAN FEDERATION); 3Space Research Institute (IKI)RAS, Moscow, (RUSSIAN FEDERATION)...... 56

P4.06 Monitoring of the Cosmic Ray Fluxes by Aragats Space Environmental Center (ASEC) at Start of 24th Solar Activity Cycle Chi, Ashot ; Chilingarian, Ashot ; Reymers, Artur Yerevan Physics Institute, (ARMENIA)...... 56

P4.05 UAH‐SWS: The Space Weather Service for Europe developed at UAH Guerrero, Antonio ; Cid, Consuelo ; Saiz, Elena ; Cerrato, Yolanda University of Alcala, (SPAIN) ...... 56

P4.06 Space Weather Tools Developed in University of Bradford Colak, Tufan ; Qahwaji, Rami ; Zraqou, Jamal ; Ipson, Stan University of Bradford, (UNITED KINGDOM)...... 56

P4.07 Influence of Volcanic Ash Cloud on Warsaw and Hornsund ionograms? Dziak‐Jankowska, Beata ; Mi³odrowska, Maria ; Pozoga, Mariusz ; Rokicki, Andrzej ; Tomasik, Lukasz Space research Centre PAS, (POLAND)...... 57

P4.08 GNSS Scintillation: Detection, Forecasting and Mitigation: A new UK based Research Project Hancock, Craig M. 1; Aquino, Marcio 1; Forte, Biagio 1; Mitchell, Cathryn 2; Strangeways, Hal J. 3; Benton, Chris 2 1Institute of Engineering for Surveying and Space Geodesy, University of Nottingham, (UNITED KINGDOM); 2Department of Electronic and Electrical Engineering, University of Bath, (UNITED KINGDOM); 3Electrical Electronic and Computer Engineering, Newcastle University, (UNITED KINGDOM) ...... 57

P4.09 Analysis of Wave‐Like Oscillations within Parameters of Sporadic E Layer and Neutral Atmosphere Koucka Knizova, Petra ; Mosna, Z. ; Kouba, D. ; Boska, J. Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, (CZECH REPUBLIC)...... 57

P4.10 European Space Weather Web Portal: Last and Future Developments Calders, Stijn 1; Pierrard, Viviane 2; Núñez Paz, Marlon 3; Kruglanski, Michel 1 1STCE / BIRA‐IASB, (BELGIUM); 2BIRA‐IASB, (BELGIUM); 3UMA, (SPAIN)...... 58

P4.11 Space Environment Information System Kruglanski, Michel 1; De Donder, Erwin 1; Messios, Neophytos 1; Gamby, Emmanual 1; Calders, Stijn 1; Evans, Hugh 2; Daly, Eamonn 2 1BIRA‐IASB / STCE, (BELGIUM); 2ESA‐ESTEC, (NETHERLANDS)...... 58

P4.12 Project SX5 ‐ Development of a new Tool for Ionospheric Investigations Lastovicka, Jan ; Boska, Josef ; Buresova, Dalia ; Kouba, Dan Institute of Atmospheric Physics, ASCR, (CZECH REPUBLIC)...... 58

P4.13 New Rms‐based Planetary Geomagnetic Activity Indices Menvielle, Michel 1; Valette, Jean‐Jacques 2; Pau, Mathieu 2; Lathuillère, Chantal 3 1Université Versailles St‐Quentin, CNRS/INSU, LATMOS‐IPSL, (FRANCE); 2CLS, Toulouse, (FRANCE); 3LPG, Grenoble, (FRANCE)...... 58

P4.14 Dual‐model for predicting Solar Energetic Proton Events Núñez, Marlon Universidad de Malaga, (SPAIN)...... 59

20 P4.15 Response of the high Latitude Ionosphere to Magnetic Disturbance on 2 May 2010 Pozoga, Mariusz ; Dziak‐Jankowska, Beata ; Mi³odrowska, Maria ; Rokicki, Andrzej ; Tomasik, Lukasz Space Research Centre PAS, (POLAND)...... 59

P4.16 SWEN Newsletter ‐‐ Customer Satisfaction Survey Rodmann, Jens 1; Hilgers, Alain 2 1ESA, (NETHERLANDS); 2ESA/ESTEC, (NETHERLANDS) ...... 59

P4.17 Autoscala Output for Ionospheric Station Hornsund Tomasik, Lukasz 1; Mi³odrowska, Maria 1; Dziak‐Jankowska, Beata 1; Pezzopane, Michael 2; Rokicki, Andrzej 1 1Space Research Centre PAS, (POLAND); 2Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, (ITALY)...... 59

P4.18 Investigation of the Dynamics Changes of the Coordinates Permanent GPS‐Stations to predict the Ionospheric Effects Yankiv‐Vitkovska, Liubov ; Savchuk, Stepan Institute of Geodesy, National University "Lviv Polytechnic", (UKRAINE) ...... 60

P4.19 Virtual magnetic observatory in auroral zone on Yamal peninsula as the base for local space weather service. Zaitsev, Alexander ; Zaitsev, Alexander ; Petrov, Valery ; Odintsov, Vladimir ; Osin, Andrey IZMIRAN, (RUSSIAN FEDERATION)...... 60

P4.20 Web‐Design of Operational Mapping of the Ionospheric W Index Maps based on EGNOS‐TEC Maps of total Electron Content Stanislawska, Iwona 1; Gulyaeva, Tamara L. 2; Tomasik, Lukasz 1; Poustovalova2 , Ljubov V. 2; Swiatek , Anna 1 1Space Research Centre PAS, (POLAND); 2IZMIRAN, 142190 Troitsk, Moscow Region, (RUSSIAN FEDERATION)... 60

P4.21 Comparison of foF2 Values extracted from DIAS Maps and Ionosonde Measurements at Nicosia during Low Solar Activity Haralambous, Haris 1; Economou, Lefteris 2; Vryonides, Photos 1 1Frederick University, (CYPRUS); 2Intercollege, (CYPRUS) ...... 61

Poster session 5 Space Weather Models: from Research to Applications Chairs: Blai Sanahuja & Susanne Vennerstroem

P5.01 The 25 July 2004 Event: Observational and Numerical Study Soenen, Alexander 1; Jacobs, Carla 1; Poedts, Stefaan 1; Torok, Tibor 2; van Driel ‐ Gesztely, Lidia 2 1K.U. Leuven, (BELGIUM); 2LESIA, Observatoire de Paris, (FRANCE) ...... 61

P5.02 Study on Solar Sources and their Effects on Ionosphere and Geomagnetic Field Perrone, Loredana 1; Meloni, Antonio 2; Damasso, Mario 3; Galliani, Marco 4; Diego, Paolo 5; Zolesi, Bruno 6 1Istituto Nazionale, (ITALY); 21. Geomagnetism, Aeronomy and Environmental Geophysics ‐ Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanol, (ITALY); 3Astronomical Observatory of the Autonomous Region of the Aosta Valley, (ITALY); 4Istituto Nazionale di Astrofisica, (ITALY); 5Dipartimento di Fisica, Università degli Studi di Roma Tre, (ITALY); 6Geomagnetism, Aeronomy and Environmental Geophysics ‐ Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologi, (ITALY)...... 61

P5.03 Coerenza: a Software Tool for computing the Maximum Coherence Times of the Ionosphere Pietrella, Marco ; Zuccheretti, Enrico Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, (ITALY)...... 61

P5.04 Regression Modelling of Space Weather Parnowski, Aleksei Space Research Institute NASU & NSAU, (UKRAINE) ...... 62

P5.05 Determining the Most Appropriate Solar Inputs for use in Upper Atmosphere Density Models Bruinsma, Sean 1; Dudok de Wit, Thierry 2 1CNES, (FRANCE); 2CNRS/LPC2E, (FRANCE) ...... 62

21 P5.06 Hyperbolic Modeling of Historical Geomagnetic Superstorms Recovery Phase Aguado, Jesus ; Cerrato, Yolanda ; Saiz, Elena ; Cid, Consuelo University of Alcala, (SPAIN) ...... 62

P5.07 Improved Cosmic Ray (CR) Ionization Model for the Atmosphere. Determination of Energy Intervals for CR Penetration Velinov, Peter ; Mateev, Lachezar Space and Solar‐Terrestrial Research Institute, (BULGARIA) ...... 63

P5.08 Analysis of the Recent Space Weather Events using a Suite of Models and Observations Zheng, Yihua 1; Pulkkinen, Antti 2; Taktakishvili, Aleksandre 3; Hesse, Michael 1; Kuznetsova, Masha 1; Rastaetter, Lutz 1 1NASA/GSFC, (UNITED STATES); 2CUA ‐ NASA/GSFC, (UNITED STATES); 3UMBC‐NASA/GSFC, (UNITED STATES) ... 64

P5.09 A Numerical Study of the Pre‐Eruptive Coronal Magnetic Field Evolution Jacobs, Carla ; Poedts, Stefaan Centre for plasma‐astrophysics, (BELGIUM)...... 64

P5.10 Modelling the March 1,1979 Proton Event observed by three Spacecraft: Relevance of the Observer's Longitudinal Position Rodríguez‐Gasén, Rosa 1; Aran, Angels 2; Jacobs, Carla 3; Sanahuja, Blai 1; Poedts, Setfaan 3 1Universitat de Barcelona, (SPAIN); 2ESA‐ESTEC, (NETHERLANDS); 3CPA‐ KU Leuven, (BELGIUM)...... 64

P5.11 Pressure changes in the Winter Lower Atmosphere and Solar/Geomagnetic Activity. Bochnicek, Josef 1; Davidkovova, Hana 1; Hejda, Pavel 1; Huth, Radan 2 1Institute of Geophysics, (CZECH REPUBLIC); 2Institute of Atmospheric Physics, (CZECH REPUBLIC)...... 64

P5.12 Storm‐Time Changes of Ionospheric TEC during Moderate Geomagnetic Storm at Minimum Solar Activity Krankowski, Andrzej 1; Shagimuratov, Irk 2; Zakharenkova, Irina 2; Krypiak‐Gregorczyk, Anna 1; Sieradzki, Rafal 1 1University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn, (POLAND); 2WD IZMIRAN, (RUSSIAN FEDERATION)...... 65

P5.13 Advanced Thermosphere Modelling for Orbit Prediction (ATMOP) Menvielle, Michel 1; Sánchez‐Ortiz, Noelia 2; Aylward, Alan 3; Bruinsma, Sean 4; Jackson, David 5; Lathuillère, Chantal 6; Sladek, Oto 7; Valette, Jean Jacques 8; Dudok de Wit, Thierry 9; Watermann, Jurgen 9; Bushell, Andrew 5 1LATMOS, CNRS/IPSL, (FRANCE); 2DEIMOS Space, (SPAIN); 3University College London, UCL, (UNITED KINGDOM); 4Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales, CNES, (FRANCE); 5Met Office, (UNITED KINGDOM); 6Laboratoire de Planétologie de Grenoble, UJF‐ CNRS, (FRANCE); 7Kybertec S.R.O, (CZECH REPUBLIC); 8Collecte Localisation Satellites, CLS, (FRANCE); 9LPC2E, CNRS and University of Orléans, (FRANCE)...... 65

P5.14 Approximation to Galactic Cosmic Ray Spectrum during 11‐year Solar Cycle Velinov, Peter ; Buchvarova, Marusja ; Draganov, Dimitar Space and Solar‐Terrestrial Research Institute, (BULGARIA) ...... 66

P5.15 Kalman Filter Technique for improving Prediction of smoothed Monthly Sunspot Numbers Podladchikova, Tanya 1; Van Der Linden, Ronald 2 1National Technical University of Ukraine (UKRAINE); 2Solar Influences Data analysis Center, Royal Observatory of Belgium, (BELGIUM)...... 67

P5.16 The Energy per Ion Pair in Planetary Atmospheres as a Means to evaluate Uncertainties in Transport Kinetic Models Simon Wedlund, Cyril 1; Gronoff, Guillaume 2; Lilensten, Jean 3; Ménager, Hélène 3; Barthélemy, Mathieu 3 1BIRA‐IASB, (BELGIUM); 2NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA, (UNITED STATES); 3Laboratoire de Planétologie de Grenoble, (FRANCE)...... 67

P5.17 Great SEP Events and Space Weather, 1. Probabilities of False and missed Alerts Dorman, Lev 1; Pustil’nik, Lev 2; Sternlieb, Abraham 3; Zukerman, Igor 2 1Tel Aviv University and Israel Space Agency, (ISRAEL); 2Israel Cosmic Ray and Space Weather Center, (ISRAEL); 3Israel Cosmic Ray and Space Weather, (ISRAEL)...... 67

22 P5.18 Great SEP Events and Space Weather , 2. Automatically Determination of Solar Energetic Particle Spectrum. Dorman, Lev 1; Pustil’nik, Lev 2; Sternlieb, Abraham 2; Zukerman, Igor 2 1Tel Aviv University and Israel Space Agency, (ISRAEL); 2Israel Cosmic Ray and Space Weather Center, (ISRAEL). 68

P5.19 Great SEP Events and Space Weather, 3. Diffusion Coefficient, Time of Ejection and Energy Spectrum in Source. Dorman, Lev 1; Pustil’nik, Lev 2; Sternlieb, Abraham 2; Zukerman, Igor 2 1Tel Aviv University and Israel Space Agency, (ISRAEL); 2Israel Cosmic Ray and Space Weather Center, (ISRAEL). 68

P5.20 Great SEP Events and Space Weather, 4. Simultaneously using of NM and Satellite one Minute Data Dorman, Lev 1; Pustil’nik, Lev 2; Sternlieb, Abraham 2; Zukerman, Igor 2 1Tel Aviv University and israel Space Agency, (ISRAEL); 2Israel Cosmic Ray and Space Weather Center, (ISRAEL). 71

P5.21 Great SEP Events and Space Weather, 5. Radiation Hazard Forecasting in Space, in Magnetosphere, and in the Atmosphere Dorman, Lev 1; Pustil’nik, Lev 2; Sternlieb, Abraham 2; Zukerman, Igor 2 1Tel Aviv University and Israel Space Agency, (ISRAEL); 2Israel Cosmic Ray and Space Weather Center, (ISRAEL). 71

P5.22 Analysis of the Ionospheric Variation over Korea JEONG, CHEOL OH 1; Park, Jae Woo 1; Hong, Sun Hak 2; Kim, Jung Hoon 3 1ETRI, (KOREA, REPUBLIC OF); 2RRA, (KOREA, REPUBLIC OF); 3SET System, (KOREA, REPUBLIC OF) ...... 69

P5.23 Solar Energetic Particle Event (Sepe) Waiting Time Analysis as Part of the Sepem Project Jiggens, Piers 1; Gabriel, Stephen 2; Heynderickx, Daniel 3; Norma, Crosby 4; Glover, Alexi 5 1ESA/ESTEC, (NETHERLANDS);2University of Southampton, (UNITED KINGDOM); 3DH Consultancy, (BELGIUM); 4BIRA, (BELGIUM); 5ESA/ESAC, (SPAIN)...... 69

P5.24 Predictions of SEP Events Based on Linear Filter and Layer Recurrent Neural Network Valach, Fridrich 1; Revallo, Milos 1; Hejda, Pavel 2; Bochnicek, Josef 2 1Geophysical Institute, Slovak Academy of Sciences, (SLOVAKIA); 2Institute of Geophysics, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, (CZECH REPUBLIC) ...... 69

P5.25 In‐situ Observations of echoing HF radar backscatter targets and implications for GPS TEC errors Moen, Joran 1; Dyrud, L. 2; Oksavik, K. 3; Abe, T. 4; Lester, M. 5; Saito, Y. 4; Bekkeng, J. K. 6 1University of Oslo, (NORWAY); 2JHU/APL, (UNITED STATES); 3UNIS, (NORWAY); 4ISAS/JAXA, (JAPAN); 5Univ. of Leicester, (UNITED KINGDOM); 6Univ. of Oslo, (NORWAY) ...... 69

P5.26 Plasma Density Profiles in the Plasmasphere for Space Weather Applications Darrouzet, Fabien ; De Keyser, Johan ; Pierrard, Viviane Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy (BIRA‐IASB), (BELGIUM)...... 70

P5.27 About Possible Influence of Space Weather on Earth Prices Pustil'nik, Lev 1; Yom Din, Gregory 2 1Tel Aviv University, (ISRAEL); 2Golan Research Institute, (ISRAEL)...... 70

P5.28 Data Assimilation for Global Analysis ‐ an Activity of FP7 Research Project ATMOP Bushell, Andrew 1; Jackson, David 1; Aylward, Alan 2 1Met Office, (UNITED KINGDOM); 2Atmospheric Physics Laboratory, University College London, (UNITED KINGDOM) ...... 70

P5.29 Trans‐Magnetosphere Impact of a lightning Discharge on Global Atmospheric Electric Circuit with changing Parameters Velinov, Peter ; Tonev, Peter Space and Solar‐Terrestrial Research Institute, (BULGARIA) ...... 72

P5.30 Temporal Analysis of Topside Ionosphere Plasma Parameters Slominska, Ewa ; Rothkaehl, Hanna Space Research Center PAS, (POLAND)...... 73

23 P5.31 Subionospheric VLF Propagation Data ‐ Signatures of Solar X‐Ray Flares Zigman, Vida 1; Grubor , Davorka 2; Kolarski, Aleksandra 3; Sulic, Desanka 4 1University of Nova Gorica, (SLOVENIA); 2Milutina Milankovica 130, Belgrade, (SERBIA); 3Geophysical Institute, Belgrade, (SERBIA); 4Institute of Physics, Belgrade, (SERBIA) ...... 73

P5.32 Fast Solar Wind and Geomagnetic Storms during Solar Cycle 23 (1996‐2008) .. MARIS, Ovidiu 1; Dobrica, Venera 2; Demetrescu, Crisan 2; Maris, Georgeta 2 1Institute for Space Sciences, (ROMANIA); 2Institute of Geodinamics of the Romanian Academy, Bucharest, (ROMANIA)...... 74

P5.33 Making Temperature Maps of the Solar Corona in real Time by Blind Source Separation Dudok de Wit, Thierry 1; Goryaev, Farid 2; Kretzschmar, Matthieu 1 1University of Orléans, (FRANCE); 2Lebedev Physical Institute, (RUSSIAN FEDERATION) ...... 74

P5.34 A Methods for filling Data Gaps in Multichannel Solar Records Dudok de Wit, Thierry University of Orléans, (FRANCE)...... 74

P5.35 Comparison between IRI‐2007 Predictions and Ionosonde Measurements of hmF2 at Nicosia during Low Solar Activity Haralambous, Haris 1; Economou, Lefteris 2 1Frederick University, (CYPRUS); 2Intercollege, (CYPRUS) ...... 75

P5.36 FP7 COST ES0803 I LOVE MY SUN‐ 3 An Outreach Activity in Europe An exercise on the training of school children of age group 8‐10 years Tulunay, Yurdanur 1; Tulunay, E. 1; Cizmecioglu, A. 2; Crosby, N. 3; Gençaydýn, Z. 4; Sekercioglu, A. 5; Kucukturan, G. 5 1Metu, (TURKEY); 2ROKETSAN, (TURKEY); 3Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy, (BELGIUM); 4Hacettepe University, (TURKEY); 5Baskent University Kolej Ayseabla Okullari, (TURKEY)...... 75

P5.37 EUV Observations of Micro‐Eruptions and Their Associated Coronal Waves Podladchikova, O1.; Vourlidas, A. 2; Van der Linden, R. A. M. 1; Wülser, J.‐P. 3; Patsourakos, S. 1 ROB1, NRL2, LMSAL3 ...... 76

24 ABSTRACTS

ESA SSA SWE Element Status and near Future Plans A Proposal for the Provision of Space Weather Luntama, Juha‐Pekka1; Glover, Alexi1; Hilgers, Alain2 Segment Precursor Services ‐ in Support to ESA SSA 1ESA, SPAIN; 2 ESA, The Netherlands Preparatory Programme' Reid, Simon The Space Situational Awareness (SSA) Preparatory RHEA System S.A., BELGIUM Programme (PP) established for 2009 ‐ 2011 has passed its half way point at the end of June 2010. Although the The ESA contract SN‐1: 'Space Weather Segment SSA PP is foreseen to be extended due to the possible Precursor Services ‐ Part 1: Definition and Service postponement of the next ESA Ministerial Meeting, this Consolidation', currently under negotiation, will be one is a good point to check the status of the SWE element of the first contracts issued in the Space Weather of the SSA PP and to look at the plans for the second element of ESA's Space Situational Awareness half of the preparatory programme. framework. The 12 month contract will take place entirely within the SSA Preparatory phase and has two The objective of the overall SSA Programme is to principle threads to the work to be performed. First, a support the European independent utilisation of and set of existing assets will be redeployed together at an access to space research or services. The SSA ESA facility and operated for a fixed period, to establish Preparatory Program will establish the initial elements the extent to which Europe's Space Weather that will facilitate the full deployment of the European requirements can be met with existing assets. Second, SSA services. In the case of the SSA SWE element this the full strategic roadmap for the development of a means assessment of the existing SWE assets in Europe future integrated system will be derived. The future and worldwide, establishment of a SWE precursor system will be based on existing, imminent and planned services, and planning of the necessary space and assets, and will provide all essential services and satisfy ground segments that will allow the provision of the all requirements identified to date by ESA and their services required by the SSA users. These plans will be advisory partners. integrated into the overall design of the SSA system RHEA System SA has submitted a proposal on behalf of architecture. an international consortium that has gathered together many well‐known players within the European Space The SWE element of the SSA will provide user services Weather domain. The composition of the team will be related to the monitoring of the Sun, the solar wind, the presented and individual roles within the proposal radiation belts, the magnetosphere and the ionosphere. described. The overall project philosophy, methodology These services will include near real time information and work breakdown will be explained, and the overall and forecasts about the characteristics of the space vision of how the work's output and results will carry environment and predictions of space weather impacts forward to the rest of the SSA programme outlined. This on sensitive spaceborne and ground based will include an outline of how the community can infrastructure. The SSA SWE system will also include contribute to the overall effort. establishment of a permanent database for analysis, model development and scientific research. These *************** services are will support a wide variety of user domains including spacecraft designers, spacecraft operators, Implementation Design Study of Space Weather human space flights, users and operators of Instruments 1 2 1 transionospheric radio links, and space weather Norbert, Pailer ; Bothmer, Volker ; Kummer, Uwe ; 1 1 research community. Honnen, Karl ; Lang, Michael 1Astrium GmbH, Friedrichshafen, GERMANY; 2University This paper will present the status of the SSA SWE of Göttingen, GERMANY element development, planned precursor SWE services and the linking of the SWE element into the overall SSA The objective of the SSA programme is to support architecture. The presentation will address the Europe's independent utilisation of, and access to, developments planned for the second half of the SSA PP space through the provision of timely and accurate and the initial plans for the full SSA Programme information, data and services of the space regarding the SWE services. environment, particularly regarding Space Weather hazards to infrastructure in orbit and on the ground, *************** and to manned missions. Measurements that can only be made in space are a key element of the SSA system. ESA's SN‐II study, as a subset of the SSA programme,

focuses on the flight of Space Weather sensors as secondary payload on planned missions This new and

coordinated approach to developing Space Weather

25 applications tailored to European user needs together EISCAT_3D: A European Imaging Radar for Space with the supporting role from the scientific community Weather Research will strongly increase Europe's capabilities in this area. McCrea, Ian This presentation introduces the main elements of the STFC Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, UNITED SN‐II study and explains the logic flow towards KINGDOM instrument selection and implementation on planned missions. It will identify the instruments needed to fulfil EISCAT_3D will be Europe's next‐generation radar for the SSA Space Weather customer requirements defined studies of the high‐latitude atmosphere and geospace, for monitoring conditions at the Sun, in the solar wind, with capabilities going beyond anything currently and of the Earth's magnetosphere, ionosphere and available. The facility will consist of large phased arrays thermosphere, and the required orbital, instrumental in three countries. Depending on funding, EISCAT_3D and spacecraft parameters. The presentation will will comprise tens of thousands, up to more than especially report on the current status of the project 100,000 antenna elements. The EISCAT_3D design with respect to the selection process of potential combines capabilities for volumetric imaging and instrument providers that will lead to dedicated Space tracking and aperture synthesis imaging, with improved Weather sensors to be flown in space as piggy‐backs, sensitivity and transmitter flexibility. A minimum of five including the definition of high level requirements for sites is envisaged, with receivers located around 120 km dedicated mission(s) needed to close identified existing and 250 km from the active site, providing optimal gaps. geometry for vectors in the middle and upper atmosphere. An active site comprising 16,000 elements *************** will exceed the sensitivity of the present VHF radar by an order of magnitude. EISCAT_3D will deliver radical HaSTeNet: a State‐of‐the‐Art H‐Alpha Solar Patrol improvements compared to many of EISCAT's current Network for the SSA space weather capabilities. In particular, its enhanced Clette, Frédéric1; Temmer, Manuela2; Veronig, Astrid2; imaging and tracking capabilities will provide much Zuccarello, Francesca3; Malherbe, Jean‐Marie4 better monitoring abilities for space debris, satellites 1Observatoire Royal de Belgique, BELGIUM; 2Kanzelhohe and meteors. In addition, the ability to image a large Observatory, Universitat Graz, AUSTRIA; 3Osservatorio area of the ionosphere simultaneously will provide Astrofisico di Catania, Universita' di Catania, ITALY; much better information on plasma structures such as 4Observatoire de Paris‐Meudon, LESIA, FRANCE blobs and patches, the understanding of which is important for the communities interested in TEC and HF The SSA roadmap identified among its key data sources communications applications. In this talk we will focus a European ground‐based network of H‐alpha solar flare on these and other potential space weather applications patrol telescopes. We review here the multiple existing of the EISCAT_3D system and the kinds of data products know‐hows at solar monitoring stations across Europe and services which the new facility might be able to as well as the current shortcomings in the existing H‐ provide for the European Space Weather community. alpha observations. From this, we can outline the different aspects necessary for the implementation of *************** such a network: the design and standardisation of the observing equipment, the data transmission and Space Weather: Recent Programmatic Developments merging and the implementation of an operational H‐ in the UK alpha flare alert center. New instrumentation as well as Hapgood, Mike1; Thomson, Alan2; Jones, Bryn3; Horne, robust automated image processing and data fusion Richard4 techniques can involve partnerships with the industry, 1STFC Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, UNITED which is reflected by the inclusion of HaSTeNet in the KINGDOM; 2British Geological Survey, UNITED GSTP 5 program. We will conclude on the various KINGDOM; 3SolarMetrics, UNITED KINGDOM; 4British envisioned data products (flares, filament eruptions, Antarctic Survey, UNITED KINGDOM Moreton waves) as well as the connection of HasTeNet with other world‐wide solar monitoring initiatives, The past few months have seen a growing interest in including the possible installation of a polar H‐alpha space weather from high‐level organisations in the UK station. public and private sectors. At the centre of this, there is recognition that space weather is an emerging natural *************** hazard that requires assessment by emergency planners. This is leading to growing interactions between policy makers and UK space weather experts. This presentation will outline some of those interactions and discuss the opportunities and challenges that they pose for the space weather community.

26 *************** Advanced Thermosphere Modelling for Orbit Prediction (ATMOP) 1 2 Overview of Space Weather and SSA Activities in EU Menvielle, Michel ; Sánchez‐Ortiz, Noelia ; Aylward, 3 4 5 Research Alan ; Bruinsma, Sean ; Jackson, David ; Lathuillère, 6 7 8 Ljungqvist, Mats Chantal ; Sladek, Oto ; Valette, Jean Jacques ; Dudok de 9 9 5 European Commission, BELGIUM Wit, Thierry ; Watermann, Jurgen ; Bushell, Andrew 1LATMOS, CNRS/IPSL, FRANCE; 2DEIMOS Space, SPAIN; 3University College London, UCL, UNITED KINGDOM; The European Union supports research on space 4 weather through the Space theme of its FP7 research Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales, CNES, FRANCE; 5Met Office, UNITED KINGDOM; 6Laboratoire de programme. The SOTERIA project launched in 2009 7 brings together a significant part of the European space Planétologie de Grenoble, UJF‐ CNRS, FRANCE; Kybertec S.R.O, CZECH REPUBLIC; 8Collecte Localisation Satellites, weather community. Currently, a number of new 9 projects are being launched. The projects will address CLS, FRANCE; LPC2E, CNRS and University of Orléans, the longer term generic scientific work and practical FRANCE pre‐operative aspects of space weather prediction as well as modelling of space weather effects on Earth and The ATMOP research project aims at building a new space infrastructure and the human body. thermosphere model with the potential to spawn an The presentation will provide a brief overview of issues operational version. It will enable precise air drag covered by EU projects in the field of space weather and computation which is mandatory for improved survey related SSA topics in the context of the FP7 research and precise tracking of space objects in Low Earth Orbit programme. and the initiation of appropriate measures to minimise risks to satellites (track loss, collisions) and ground *************** assets (re‐entry zone). The state of the thermosphere can vary rapidly and significantly in response to solar and to geomagnetic activity (space weather), i.e., European Risk from Geomagnetically Induced Currents accurate orbit prediction requires accurate space‐time (EURISGIC) 1 1 2 nowcast and forecast of the thermosphere. Despite the Viljanen, Ari ; Pirjola, Risto ; Pulkkinen, Antti ; Sakharov, 3 4 5 presence in Europe of one of the three groups that have Yaroslav ; Thomson, Alan ; Wesztergom, Viktor ; Wik, 6 7 the capability to develop and maintain an operational Magnus ; Wintoft, Peter 1 2 semi‐empirical thermosphere model (CNES/CNRS, the Finnish Meteorological Institute, FINLAND; CUA/IACS other two are in the US), and of one of the world at NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, UNITED STATES; 3 leading teams in the field of physical modelling of the Polar Geophysical Institute, RUSSIAN FEDERATION; 4 5 atmosphere (UCL), Europe has currently neither a near‐ British Geological Survey, UNITED KINGDOM; Geodetic real‐time thermosphere prediction model nor the and Geophysical Research Institute, HUNGARY; 6 7 operational services required to provide regular NeuroSpace, SWEDEN; Swedish Institute of Space thermosphere nowcast and forecast. The ATMOP Physics, SWEDEN project is designed to fill this gap through: * Defining and assessing new proxies to describe the external The EURISGIC project will produce the first European‐ forcing of the thermosphere; * Developing an advanced wide real‐time prototype forecast service of GIC in semi‐empirical Drag Temperature Model (DTM) that power systems, based on in‐situ solar wind observations meets the requirements for operational orbit and comprehensive simulations of the Earth's computations; * Improving physical modelling of the magnetosphere. By utilising geomagnetic recordings, thermosphere to assist the development of the we will also derive the first map of the statistical risk of advanced DTM and of a global physical model with data large GIC throughout Europe. Because the most intense assimilation capabilities which may ultimately become geomagnetic storms constitute the most remarkable the successor to semi‐empirical models. * Developing threat, with a risk of power grid blackouts and schemes for near‐real‐time assimilation of destruction of transformers, we will also investigate thermospheric and ionospheric data into an advanced worst‐case GIC scenarios based on historical data. predictive DTM and into the physical Coupled Middle EURISGIC will exploit the knowledge and advanced Atmosphere‐Thermosphere (CMAT2) model. ATMOP modelling methods developed in Europe and North therefore contributes to ensuring the security of space America. Close communication throughout the project assets from space weather events and the development with a stakeholder advisory group will help in directing of the European capability to reduce dependence of the research and outreach appropriately. The results of space operations on the US. this study will help in the future design of more robust and secure protection against GIC in power transmission *************** grids in Europe, which are anticipated to become increasingly interconnected and geographically wider.

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27 AFFECTS (Advanced Forecast For Ensuring Cigala: an fp7 Project to tackle Ionospheric Scintillation Communications Through Space) Threat to Gnss Operations in Latin America Bothmer, Volker1; Team, AFFECTS2 Bougard, Bruno1; De Franceschi, Giorgiana2; Aquino, 1University of Goettingen, GERMANY; 2International, Marcio3; Galera Monico, Joao4; Saut, Carine5; Fererra Da GERMANY Silva, Elcia6; Forte, Biagio7; Wernik, Andrzej8 1Septentrio Satellite Navigation, BELGIUM; 2INGV, ITALY; 3 4 Under the call EU‐FP7 SPACE‐2010‐1 the European University of Nottingham, UNITED KINGDOM; UNESP, 5 6 Union supports activities strengthening space BRAZIL; Pildo Labs, SPAIN; Consultgel, BRAZIL; 7 8 foundations reducing the vulnerability of space assets University of Nova Gorica, SLOVENIA; Polish Academy from space weather events. Solar activity affects the of Sciences, POLAND entire Earth environment from the magnetosphere down to the ionosphere and even to the lower Solar induced drifting ionospheric electron density atmosphere climate system. The natural hazards of irregularities may lead to the scintillation of space weather do not only modify the atmosphere but transionospheric radio waves, as in the case of signals also can catastrophically disrupt the operations of many broadcast from GNSS satellites. Scintillations can not technological systems, thus causing disruption to only degrade signal quality but also cause outage, people's lives and jobs. The AFFECTS collaborative therefore posing a major threat to GNSS based project uniquely addresses these key topics through applications demanding high levels of accuracy, state of the art analysis and modeling of the Sun‐Earth availability and integrity. The problem will be Chain of Effects on the Earth's ionosphere and their exacerbated with the next solar maximum, predicted subsequent impacts on communication systems. Multi‐ for 2013. point space observations enable world‐leading experts at the highest level of interdisciplinary excellence to Latin America, Brazil in particular, which relies in a great forecast the relevant space weather effects on the extend on high‐precision GNSS in operations such as off‐ ionosphere quantitatively. The unique set of shore surveying, land management and precision measurements from satellites in different orbits is agriculture is particularly exposed as close to the complemented by dedicated ground‐based monitoring equatorial anomaly. This was demonstrated during of auroral electrojet and ionospheric activity. The recent major solar storms, which led to delay or AFFECTS team consists of key European space weather cancellation of major surveying and drilling operations research teams and the US Space Weather Prediction as well as serious disruption to the WAAS system in Center of NOAA. To date no dedicated space weather those areas with, as a consequence, significant forecast system for ionospheric applications exists in an economical loss. The problem will be further operational manner, and thus this project would lead to exacerbated with the next solar maximum, predicted an entirely new capability in Europe that is not only for 2013. important for society but also does not exist elsewhere. AFFECTS is an unprecedented project which in time of The CIGALA project, co‐funded by the EC 7th Framwork the expected next solar maximum around 2012 will Program and supervised by the GNSS Supervisory provide advanced prediction, assessment and early Authority (GSA), aims to develop and test ionospheric warning capabilities of disruptive space weather events scintillation countermeasures to be implemented in that are expected to be particularly poignant to society professional multi‐frequency GNSS receivers. The and thereby meets the needs of Europe’s community of project leverages research and development activities users. AFFECTS will provide Europe with the first coordinated between European and Brazilian experts, advanced early warning and space weather forecast involving a wide scale ionospheric measurement and system to help European citizens mitigating the impact test campaigns that will be conducted in Brazil with the on its communication systems. support of several local academic and industrial partners. *************** This presentation will review the status and first achievements of the project, including first measurements and results on scintillation climatology in the Brazilian region.

***************

28 A new, Ground Based Data‐Assimilative Model of the Protecting space assets from high energy particles by Plasmasphere ‐ a Critical Contribution to RB modeling developing European dynamic modelling and for SW Purposes forecasting capabilities (SPACECAST) Lichtenberger, Janos1; Clilverd, Mark2; Heilig, Balazs3; Horne, Richard; Koskinen, Hannu; Ganjushkina, Natalia; Vellanate, Massimo4; Ulich, Thomas5; Rodger, Craig6; Boscher, Daniel; Sanahuja, Blai; Poedts, Stefaan; Jacobs, Collier, Andrew7; Jorgensen, Anders8; Reda, Jan9; Carla; Heynderickx, Daniel Holzworth, Bob10; Friedel, Reiner11 British Antarctic Survey, UNITED KINGDOM 1Eotvos University, HUNGARY; 2British Antartctic Survey, 3 UNITED KINGDOM; Eotvos Lorand Geophysical Solar activity can trigger sporadic bursts of energetic 4 Institute, HUNGARY; University of L'Aquila, ITALY; particles and increase the number of high energy (MeV) 5 6 University of Oulu, FINLAND; University of Otago, NEW particles trapped inside the Earth’s radiation belts. 7 ZEALAND; Hermanus Magnetic Observatory, SOUTH These high energy particles cause damage to satellites 8 AFRICA; New Mexico Institute of Mining and and are a hazard for manned spaceflight and aviation. 9 Technology, UNITED STATES; Institute of Geophysics, They are difficult to predict due to uncertainties over 10 Polish Academy of Sciences, POLAND; University of the basic physical processes, and the need to access 11 Washington, UNITED STATES; Los Alamos National reliable data in real time. European space policy is Laboratory, UNITED STATES committed to the Galileo radionavigation system consisting of 30 satellites, the use of space assets to The security of space assets are affected by the high‐ protect the security of its citizens (GMES), and a strong energy charged particle environment in the radiation and competitive space industry. It is therefore belts. The controlling principal source and loss imperative that Europe develops the means to protect mechanisms in the radiation belts are not yet these space assets from all forms of space weather completely understood. During a geomagnetic storm hazards, and especially now as solar activity will the length of time during which space assets are in increase to a maximum over the next few years and will danger is determined by the loss mechanisms, increase the hazard risk. This proposal will draw particularly by relativistic electron precipitation. The together European and international partners to primary mechanism for this precipitation is the increase knowledge, reduce uncertainty, and to develop interaction of several wave modes with resonant a forecasting capability. We will undertake targeted electrons which leads to scattering into the atmospheric studies of particle source, transport, acceleration and loss cone. The nature of the wave activity and the loss processes in the Earth’s radiation belts to improve interactions between the waves and radiation belt understanding of how they respond to solar activity. We particles are strongly governed by the properties of the will transform research models into space weather plasmasphere. At this point there are few existing and models to forecast the radiation belts in near real time, regular measurements of plasmaspheric properties, and provide alerts for periods of high risk to with existing plasmaspheric models lacking the stakeholders. We will test models of how solar structures known to exist in the real plasmasphere. energetic particles are accelerated by shocks in the solar There is evidence that enhanced wave activity and wind, and are transported through the interplanetary enhanced radiation belt losses occur due to such medium, in order to improve engineering tools for structures. In addition, there are large uncertainties predicting the intensity and fluence of solar energetic concerning the fundamental nature of relativistic particle events. We will develop a stakeholder electron precipitation (REP), due to the difficulties of community for valuable feedback and deliver the results undertaking quality in‐situ measurements. in a form accessible to the public. The project will To address these uncertainties in this proposed project deliver a space weather forecasting capability that will we will provide regular longitudinally‐resolved continue beyond the lifetime of the project and which measurements plasmaspheric electron and mass will lay the foundation for an operational system. densities and hence monitor the changing composition of the plasmasphere, one of the properties which *************** determines wave growth. This will allow us to develop a data assimilative model of the plasmasphere. At the same time, we will monitor the occurrence and properties of REP, tying the time‐resolved loss of relativistic electrons to the dynamic plasmasphere observations. Our approach will primarily use ground‐based networks of observing stations, operating in the ULF and VLF ranges, deployed on a worldwide level. Our proposal is made up of 6 work packages to meet these science goals.

*************** 29 COMESEP: Forecasting the Space Weather Impact consider the physics first rather than the existing Crosby, Norma1; Veronig, Astrid2; Robbrecht, Eva3; models. We will not piece together ill fitting existing Vrsnak, Bojan4; Vennerstrom, Susanne5; Malandraki, pieces as one might be tempted to do. Instead, we will Olga6; Dalla, Silvia7; Farrugia, Charlie8 use the best knowledge available so far to design the 1Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy, BELGIUM; best fitting model and software. We intend to take no 2University of Graz, AUSTRIA; 3Royal Observatory of shortcuts, we want to develop a sound and solid basis Belgium, BELGIUM; 4Hvar Observatory, CROATIA; for space weather forecasting, to form the equivalent of 5Technical University of Denmark, DENMARK; 6National what is now commonplace in regular meteorological Observatory of Athens, GREECE; 7University of Central models. Lancashire, UNITED KINGDOM; 8The University of New The proposing team covers all aspects of the evolution Hampshire, UNITED STATES of space weather events from the Sun to the effects on the Earth and includes experts with proven track record The COronal Mass Ejections and Solar Energetic in the business of making space weather forecasts. We Particles (COMESEP) project will develop tools for have extensive experience in the supercomputing forecasting geomagnetic storms and solar energetic facilities needed for space weather forecasting possible. particle (SEP) radiation storms. The tools will be We have experts on software development, on space incorporated into an automated operational European weather modelling. and on the observations needed to Space Weather Alert system. By analysis of historical help design the models and to test the results in a data, complemented by the extensive data coverage of rigorous verification and validation approach. Our solar cycle 23, the key ingredients that lead to magnetic teams cover also geographically diverse areas of Europe storm and SEP events and the factors that are and both founding and recent members of the EU. responsible for false alarms will be identified. To enhance our understanding of the 3D kinematics and *************** interplanetary propagation of CMEs, the structure, propagation and evolution of CMEs will be investigated. Space Weather Research in Ukraine In parallel, the sources and propagation of SEPs will be Parnowski, Aleksei1; Korepanov, Valeriy2; Cheremnykh, examined and modeled. Based on the insights gained, Oleg1 and making use of algorithms for the automated 1Space Research Institute NASU & NSAU, UKRAINE; 2L'viv detection of CMEs, forecasting tools for geomagnetic Center of Space Research Institute NASU & NSAU, and SEP radiation storms will be developed and UKRAINE optimised. Validation and implementation of the produced tools into an operational Space Weather Alert A review of recent Ukrainian Space Weather research system will be performed. activities is presented. The main topics include solar physics, magnetospheric physics, ionospheric and *************** atmospheric physics, space weather forecasting and developement of scientific instrumentation. A status FP7 Project SWIFF ‐ Space Weather Integrated report on major Ukrainian space weather projects is Forecasting Framework also given. Lapenta, Giovanni Catholic University Leuven, BELGIUM ***************

We address two fundamental issues in space weather: Recent Developments in Dynamic Modelling of the 1) development of a integrated framework for the Earth's Radiation Belts physics modelling of space weather, 2) study of Horne, Richard; Glauert, Sarah; Meredith, Nigel methods and software to address the linkage (coupling) British Antarctic Survey, UNITED KINGDOM between different physics and processes developing simultaneously or in cascade. We propose a plan that The Earth's radiation belts are a well known hazard for starts from the fundamental physics of the space satellites on orbit. The relativistic electron flux trapped weather processes and designs, first, mathematical inside the Earth's magnetic field can vary by up to five models best suited to accurately represent such orders of magnitude in response to the solar wind and processes, proceeds to develop computational pose a significant risk to satellites. One example of this algorithms target to the models at hand and finally was during the so called Halloween storm in 2003 implements a common integrated software where 30 satellites reported anomalies and one was a infrastructure to make space weather forecasting total loss. The largest magnetic storm on record is the possible. 1859 Carrington storm. A storm as large as this has We organise our plan around a common multiphysics never occurred in the satellite era, but if it did it has and multiscale work package, and 3 additional work been argued that the potential satellite losses are far packages designed to address the three main sources of higher than in 2003. In recognition of these risks, and linkages: the couplings at the Sun, in space and at the the increase in the solar cycle, there are new initiatives Earth. The main characteristic of our approach is to 30 in Europe to develop dynamic models of the electron In order to evaluate the net effects of radiation on a radiation belts to help protect satellites on orbit. Here component, it is important to have an efficient tool that we describe recent progress on developing global calculates the transfer of the outer radiation radiation belt models that take into account radial environment through the spacecraft material, towards transport, acceleration and loss and discuss their the location of the component under investigation. For potential benefits. We describe the three basic physical this purpose, the GEANT4 simulation tool is extensively processes, and the significant challenges they present in used. Using the TOP‐model space radiation fluxes and terms of the computational complexity, and the need to the local radiation environment characteristics derived obtain data on electromagnetic waves from ultra low through GEANT4 calculations, potential cases will be frequencies (mHz) to very low frequency (kHz) to drive assessed where the dynamic of the spacecraft radiation the physics in the models. We show the results of environment may have an impact on the observed modelling particular magnetic storms which highlight radiation effects. the need to include electron acceleration and loss by wave‐particle interactions. We discuss losses at low L *************** shells due to lightning whistlers, transmitters, and whistler mode hiss, and compare new electron loss rate Space Weather in Medium Earth Orbit During Solar calculations against observations which agree well at Cycle 24 Decline and Start‐up of Cycle 25 low energies but diverge at high energies. We discuss Evans, H.D.R.1; Nieminen, P.1; Daly, E.1; Buehler, P.2; some of the factors that could account for the Buehler, P.2; Hajdas, W.3; Mohammadzadeh, A.1; Ryden, difference in results. Finally we highlight the need to K.4 collect and combine more data on the waves from 1ESA, NETHERLANDS; 2P. Buehler, AUSTRIA; 3Paul ground and space, the need for particle data and Scherrer Institut, SWITZERLAND; 4QinetiQ, UNITED magnetic indices such as Kp and AE in near real time, KINGDOM and the need for continued data from the inter‐ planetary medium to drive forecasting models. The Galileo precursor spacecraft, Giove‐A and –B have been in service since 2005 and 2008 respectively and *************** are still active today. Both spacecraft carry radiation sensors which have been providing good quality The Transient Observation‐based Particle (TOP) Model radiation data, aimed primarily at improving the and its Potential Application in Radiation Effects knowledge of the environment in this orbit. So far the Evaluation observations have covered the declining phase of the Benck, Sylvie; Cyamukungu, Mathias; Cabrera, Juan; solar cycle and solar minimum and they are current Pierrard, Viviane observing the rising phase. Giove data already received Center for Space Radiations at UCL, BELGIUM are currently being used to update and validate a MEO radiation model that is specifically designed for The evaluation of the radiation hazard on components calculation of dose‐related effects in the Galileo orbit. used in space environment is based on the knowledge Data and comparisons from these two spacecraft and of the radiation level encountered on orbit. Presently the SREM data from INTEGRAL and PROBA‐1 will be static models are widely used to assess the near‐Earth presented. environment for a given mission. These static and empirical trapped radiation models are derived from an *************** extensive compilation of spacecraft measurements and hence are not suited for describing the short time scale Space Environment Measurements by JAXA Satellites variations of geomagnetic conditions. The TOP‐model and ISS ‐ Results and Future Plan tends to break with this classical approach by Obara, Takahiro; Matsumoto, Haruhisa; Koga, Kiyokazu introducing dynamic features based on the observation JAXA, JAPAN and characterization of transient particle flux events in addition to classical mapping of steady‐state flux levels. In order to monitor space environment and its temporal In order to get a preliminary version of an operational variations, JAXA (Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency) model (actually only available for electrons at LEO), i) Space Environment Group has been conducting space the steady‐state flux level, ii) the flux enhancements environment measurements for more than 20 years. probability distribution functions and iii) the flux decay‐ JAXA installed space radiation detectors, time constants (at given energy and positions in space) magnetometers and plasma detectors on LEO (Low were determined, and an original dynamic model Earth Orbit) satellites, GEO (Geostationary Orbit) skeleton with these input parameters has been satellites, GTO (Geostationary Transfer Orbit) satellites developed. The methodology will be briefly illustrated and JEM (Japanese Experimental Module) of the ISS and first flux predictions from the model will be (International Space Station). With these data, some presented. distinguish achievements on space environment science have been obtained and an assessment of space

31 environment models are under taken. Solar proton Commercial Communications Satellite Operator; a advanced model has recently been proposed to ISO typical modern satellite and the way that we operate it (International Standard Organization) and an advanced will be described as background information. Then the radiation belt model, which accommodates temporal concept of a Spacecraft Anomaly is introduced, and and spatial variations of relativistic electrons in the some signatures that may be observed in spacecraft outer radiation belts, will be proposed to ISO shortly. telemetry are described. Examples of Spacecraft Intensity of MeV electrons seems to be controlled by Anomalies that are likely to have been caused by Space solar wind velocity as well as magnetic activities. We Weather will be presented. As an excursion into history confirmed that solar wind velocity controls MeV some spacecraft failures that are likely to have been electron intensity in the vicinity of GEO altitude on the Space Weather related will be discussed briefly. The centrally magnetic activities decide MeV electron Easter 2010 period will be used as an example of a intensity. With these relations, we have started to period when Space Weather related Spacecraft construct an advanced outer radiation belt model with Anomalies were experienced. Then there will be a foreign partners. Transport of MeV electrons into the switch to looking to the future, and some comments on inner radiation belt was also identified. MeV electrons what the Solar Cycle 24 Maximum period may have in penetrate into the inner belt across the slot region store for us. Finally some comments will be made during the recovery phase of the very big magnetic regarding the value of small Space Environment Sensors storms only. These penetrations will be one of the onboard commercial satellites. supply processes of MeV electrons in the inner radiation belt. JAXA is also using these real‐time space *************** environment data brought by JAXA satellites and International Space Station /Japan Experimental Space Weather Conditions at the Time of the Galaxy 15 Module (ISS/JEM) to inform warnings to operators of Spacecraft Anomaly‐ Report by the NOAA Tiger Team JAXA satellites as well as ISS/JEM, when the space Onsager, Terry1; Denig, W. F.2; Rodriguez, J. V.3; Singer, environment will become dangerous. In the talk, we will H. J.4; Lotoniu, T. M.3; Biesecker, D.4; Wilkinson, D. C.2; highlight some achievements by measurements and the Green, J.1 initial results obtained by recent Quasi Zenith Satellite. 1NOAA, UNITED STATES; 2NOAA/ National Geophysical Data Center, UNITED STATES; 3University of Colorado, *************** CIRES, UNITED STATES; 4NOAA/Space Weather Prediction Center, UNITED STATES Monitoring of Space Ionizing Radiation in Russian Federal Space Agency On April 05 2010, Intelsat reported that the Galaxy 15 1 2 2 Ishutin, I.O. ; Anashin, V.S. ; Emelyanov, V.V. ; geosynchronous satellite stopped responding to ground 2 Milovanov, Y.A. commands. The satellite manufacturer, Orbital Sciences 1 Space Device Engineering Institute, RUSSIAN subsequently noted that the anomaly was likely related 2 FEDERATION; Space Device Engineering Institute, to "unusually violent solar activity that week that Russian Federal Space Agency, RUSSIAN FEDERATION damaged the spacecraft's ability to communicate with ground controllers". Here we describe the sequence of The experience of the Russian MISFET radiation dose space weather events from the sun to the Earth and the sensors, placed onboard MEO orbit satellites are radiation environment near the location of Galaxy 15 at presented. The radiation dose and SEE sensitive the time of the anomaly. We present observations elements, concept of action and technical features are including solar images, solar wind measurements, considered. The results of dose monitoring are analyzed geosynchronous particle and field measurements and and compared to existing space environment models. It ground magnetometer data. The observations show is shown that the developed dose sensors are able to that the anomaly occurred after an unremarkable monitor space ionizing radiation disturbances. The dose coronal mass ejection from the sun grazed Earth rate increases in September 2008 and April 2010 are resulting in an unusually large substorm. The substorm discussed. caused in an extensive reconfiguration of Earth’s magnetotail followed by an injection of energetic *************** particles over a wide local time region encompassing the location of Galaxy 15. This report describes the The Commercial Spacecraft Operator's View of Space severity of the space environment surrounding the Weather anomaly and is intended to aide ongoing anomaly Pitchford, Dave analysis but it does not include any assessment of the SES ENGINEERING, LUXEMBOURG space weather conditions on specific satellite components. The business of a Commercial Spacecraft Operator can in the worst case be adversely affected by adverse *************** Space Weather. Here we introduce the business of a

32 On‐Orbit Anomalies: Investigations and Root Cause AIA Observations of CMEs Determination Golub, Leon Ecoffet, Robert Harvard‐Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, UNITED CNES, FRANCE STATES

Spacecraft anomalies due to radiation effects on The AIA instruments on SDO are well suited to electronic devices have been known since the very observing the origins of CMEs as they leave the low beginning of the space era. They represent today a corona. The eight wavelength channels together major part of on‐board anomalies, mission outages and observe a large range of temperatures, from unexpected workload on ground controllers of photospheric to active region and flare values, <10^4 K operational systems. This talk will first describe a to >10^7 K. AIA observations are continual with a sample of known cases of cumulated or transient regular cadence of ~10 sec, and observe the full Sun. effects in Earth or planetary environments. Then, it will Therefore all target regions are always being observed. discuss investigation methodology, and issues such as The data quality allows for processing via difference the statistical aspects of probabilistic anomalies in the images and a special "coronagraph" mode, both highly assessment of cause to effects relationships, and the useful for CME detection and tracking. We will present a necessity of multi‐field experts group root cause sample of such observations from AIA and discuss their analysis, from radiation effects to satellite fault use in space weather event detection. determination, identification and reconfiguration strategy (FDIR). A focus on some practical case of *************** anomaly analysis will be made. Finally, brief considerations on the help of on‐board environment The Emerging Informatics Infrastructure for and radiation effects monitoring will be done. Heliophysics Ireland, Jack *************** ADNET Systems, Inc./NASA GSFC, UNITED STATES

Impact of the Particle Environment on SWAP and LYRA The Sun, interplanetary space, and the Earth's Data magnetosphere and atmosphere are often studied as 1 1 1 Dominique, Marie ; Berghmans, David ; Dolla, Laurent ; separate domains of interest. This naturally leads to 2 Schmutz, Werner domain‐specific solutions to the problems of data 1 2 Royal Observatory of Belgium, BELGIUM; Physikalisch‐ acquisition, storage, distribution, visualization and Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos (PMOD/WRC), analysis. However, many important questions in SWITZERLAND heliophysics cannot be answered by considering each part of the heliosphere in isolation: rather, data from PROBA2 is an ESA micro‐satellite in a polar, low Earth many separate heterogeneous observations must be orbit at an altitude of about 725km. The coronal imager combined and understood in the context of a single SWAP and the UV radiometer LYRA, observe the Sun integrated heliophysical system. The heliophysics from the ESA's PROBA2 platform for more than six community therefore requires tools to access, visualize, months. and analyze the requisite data from across the heliosphere. Such tools are becoming ever more The SWAP and LYRA observations have been important in heliophysics as data complexity and episodically perturbated by the particles environment volume increase. In this talk I will review some of the through which the spacecraft propagates. For example, existing and developing tools that allow users to access, both instruments clearly show the effect of the South visualize and analyze data and information from Atlantic Anomaly. In conjunction with enhanced multiple heliophysical observations. I will also comment geomagnetic activity, LYRA also records signatures of on how these tools constitute an emerging informatics propagation through the auroral regions. infrastructure for heliophysics, and make some suggestions on how this infrastructure may be An analysis of these perturbations in both SWAP and developed to best serve our need to understand the LYRA data is proposed. In particular we focus on the physics of heliosphere. behavior of the new detector technology used in LYRA (rad‐hard wide‐bandgap detectors, based on diamond) *************** in such particle enviroments.

***************

33 A Three‐Dimensional SWAP‐STEREO Reconstruction of Coronal Holes and High‐Speed Solar Wind Streams a Mass‐Loading Type Eruption Krista, Larisza; Gallagher, Peter Seaton, Daniel; Mierla, Marilena; Berghmans, David; Trinity College Dublin, IRELAND Dolla, Laurent; Zhukov, Andrei Royal Observatory of Belgium, BELGIUM Coronal holes are the source of high speed solar wind streams in interplanetary space, and can therefore On 3 April 2010 an eruptive flare (GOES class B7.4) near cause adverse space weather at Earth. Despite much sun center triggered a geoeffective CME that has been study, it is still unclear how the properties of coronal blamed for the failure of the Galaxy 15 holes, such as position and area, relate to high speed telecommunications satellite. Here we present a three‐ speed solar wind stream arrival times and durations at dimensional reconstruction of this eruption using 1AU. Here we report a new image processing technique observations from SWAP onboard PROBA2 and SECCHI which automatically identifies and tracks coronal holes onboard STEREO. PROBA2 is an ESA spacecraft with four in EUV and X‐ray images, enabling us to make a detailed space weather monitoring instruments including SWAP, comparison between coronal holes and solar wind flows the EUV coronal imager from which many of these at Earth. Using a large sample of observations over cycle observations were obtained. 23, we show that high‐speed solar wind arrival times are directly correlated with the west‐most longitude of Our analysis of this event shows that it unfolded in two a coronal hole's boundary and that the duration of solar parts: an initial flow of cooler material from very low in wind stream at Earth depends on the longitudinal the corona, followed by a flux rope eruption higher in extent and area of coronal holes. the corona. We conclude that mass off‐loading from the first part triggered a rise, and, subsequently, *************** catastrophic loss of equilibrium of the flux rope. Fine Structure of the Solar Inner Corona and its We discuss the implications of this analysis on CME and Relationship with Coronal Streams flare initiation models and additional possibilities for Slemzin, Vladimir1; Urnov, Alexander1; Kuzin, Sergey1; joint operations using PROBA2 and other space based Harra, Louise2; Berghmans, David3; Goryaev, Farid3 observatories like Hinode, SDO, and STEREO. 1P.N. Lebedev Physical Institute, RUSSIAN FEDERATION; 2UCL‐MSSL, UNITED KINGDOM; 3Royal Observatory of *************** Belgium, BELGIUM

Current and Planned Observational and Modeling The inner solar corona (R=1 ÷ 2Rsun) plays an important Capabilities at the NOAA Space Weather Prediction role as the intermediate region where the restructuring Center of the magnetic field from closed to open configurations Onsager, Terry; Viereck, Rodney and the formation of the solar wind streams takes NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center, UNITED STATES place. Ulysses' results showed the global map of the solar wind and stimulated searches of the solar wind Reliable and continuous observations of the space sources. However, most of existing EUV telescopes, environment are critical for specifying the current state such as SOHO/EIT, STEREO/EUVI, SDO/AIA cannot see of the space environment and for driving predictive the corona above R=1.3Rsun. So far, investigations of models. Some of these critical observations come from coronal streams were limited to white‐light NOAA weather satellites while others come from NASA coronagraphic studies of the streamers at the distances and ESA spacecraft and from a network of ground‐based above R=2 Rsun. The first EUV observations of the inner instruments. Increasingly our forecasts of space corona up to 2.5 Rsun were obtained with the CORONAS‐ weather are based on physics‐based and empirical F/SPIRIT telescope‐coronagraph during the last solar models, all of which require extensive data for model maximum (2001‐2002) and revealed the existence of development, validation, and execution. These data and quasi‐stationary ray‐like structures stretching from models form the basis for the alerts, watches, warnings, active regions to white‐light streamers. Recently and a variety of products and services that our Forecast HINODE/EIS has detected the Doppler shifts of the Office provides to customers and users affected by coronal emission lines produced by the coronal space weather. In this presentation, we will provide an outflows at the edges of ARs. New EUV telescopes such update on our current modeling and observational as TESIS aboard CORONAS‐Photon and SWAP aboard activities as well as plans for improving our products PROBA2 have extended field of views which fill the and services and expanding our observing and modeling existing gap and allows us to study the relationship capabilities. between the EUV coronal rays and outflows detected by HINODE/EIS. This report presents preliminary results of observations of the inner corona with new EUV *************** telescopes ‐ CORONAS/TESIS and PROBA2/SWAP along with the plasma diagnostics using the simultaneous Hinode/EIS data in the current period of extremely low 34 solar activity 2009‐2010. It was found that there is a Temporal and Frequency Variations of Flares observed correspondence between the maps of the EUV line by LYRA Onboard of PROBA2. intensities, temperature profiles of column DEMs and Zender, J.1; Foing, B.1; Vagg, D.2; Dominique, M.3; stream velocities obtained by EIS at the disk center and Dammasch, I.3; Schmutz, W.4 the fine structure of the corona observed by EUV 1ESA/ESTEC/SRE, NETHERLANDS; 2Waterford University, telescopes above the limb. For the cases under study a IRELAND; 3Royal Observatory of Belgium, BELGIUM; comparison is made with the ACE data to verify the 4Physikalisch‐Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos, assumption that these coronal streams represent SWITZERLAND components of the solar wind. The radiometric data obtained onboard of PROBA2 *************** using the LYRA channels in the EUV and Soft‐Xray are analyzed and compared against other space weather New Models and Observational Strategies for data, i.e. the SWAP imager onboard of PROBA2 satellite reconstructing the Solar Spectral Irradiance for Space and the x‐ray detectors onboard of the GOES‐14 Weather Applications satellite. A temporal analysis quantifies the variations Cessateur, Gaël1; Dudok de Wit, Thierry1; Kretzschmar, during the flare event. The rise and decay time and the Matthieu1; Vieira, Luis Eduardo1; Lilensten, Jean2 flux changes are discussed for the different bands. We 1LPC2E, University of Orléans, FRANCE; 2LPG, University introduce the wavelet methodology and present the of Grenoble, FRANCE results for flare analysis applied to the LYRA channels using this method. The knowledge of the solar spectral irradiance in the UV and its variation in time is a key problem in aeronomy *************** but also in climatology and in solar physics. While the Extreme UV (10‐121 nm) range is important for Tracking CMEs from Sun to Earth thermosphere/ionosphere specification, the Far UV and Temmer, Manuela1; Möstl, Christian2; Rollett, Tanja1; Middle UV ranges are essential for climate modeling. Veronig, Astrid1; Flor, Olga1 However, the continuous monitoring of the UV 1Institute of Physics, University of Graz, AUSTRIA; 2Space irradiance is a difficult task. Space instruments are Research Institute, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Graz, indeed suffering from ageing but also signal AUSTRIA contamination of many kinds. STEREO is composed of two nearly identical spacecrafts, Because of the lack of long‐term measurements of the one ahead of Earth in its orbit (STEREO‐A), the other whole UV range, most thermosphere/ionosphere and trailing behind (STEREO‐B). This unprecedented mission climate models rely today on proxies for the solar observes CMEs simultaneously from two different irradiance. Empirical models are more usually preferred vantage points, from which new insights into the 3D since reconstructions based on model atmosphere fail aspects of CMEs are derived. With the SECCHI in the EUV/FUV ranges because of the local instrument suite aboard STEREO the distance range thermodynamic equilibrium approximation. from Sun to Earth is covered. This enables us to track CMEs seamlessly from Sun to 1AU where they can be The purpose of this work is to review the instruments related to in‐situ plasma and magnetic field and models that are available today for the specification measurements. We present on the basis of triangulation of the solar spectral UV irradiance. A short description techniques and fitting methods results on the of the available data resources will be given, followed determination of the CME/ICME propagation direction by a review of the empirical models that are of interest using observations from the coronagraphs and to the space weather community. Finally, future heliospheric imager instruments aboard STEREO. observation and reconstruction strategies for the solar spectral UV irradiance will be presented. ***************

*************** Can a Halo CME from the Limb be Geoeffective? Cid, Consuelo University of Alcala, SPAIN

The probability of a Halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) being geoeffective is assumed to be higher the closer is the CME site to the central meridian. Events far from central meridian have shown to produce a severe geomagnetic storm, as for the events on April 2000 and

in November 2003. In this work we study the effectiveness of halo CMEs coming from the limb to

35 asses the possibility that they are associated or not with correlated with the AU and AL groundbased magnetic geomagnetic storms. We have selected the 14 limb halo electrojet indices. Finally encouraging results CMEs occurred during the 23rd Solar Cycle. We search concerning the derivation of a satellite based "Dst" whether they are geoeffective or not by looking several index is shown. Only variations in total field intensity geomagnetic indices. For those geoeffective events we are used in the derivation of all these space weather analyze the solar and interplanetary data to check the parameters, i.e. vector magnetic field data is not association between the geomagnetic storm and the required. The study is part of the Solar‐Terrestrial halo CME. We have organized these events into three Investigations and Archives (SOTERIA) collaboration. sets considering their interplanetary signatures. The first set includes those events where no signature of a *************** CME‐driven shock or ejecta. The second set considers those cases where an interplanetary shock is observed SWAP and LYRA Onboard PROBA2, new EUV and finally the third set includes those where the Instruments for Space Weather monitoring interplanetary counterpart of a CME is detected. We De Groof, Anik1; Berghmans, David2; Dominique, Marie2 have checked wether any interplanetary signature is 1ESA c/o Royal Observatory of Belgium, BELGIUM; associated with the selected limb halo CME and 2Royal Observatory of Belgium, BELGIUM otherwise we have looked for other possible solar sources. Our results suggest that the limb halo CMEs of PROBA2 is an ESA micro‐satellite, launched on 23rd Solar Cycle are not geoeffective. We conclude that November 2, 2009 from Russia. PROBA2 carries two it is absolutely necessary to check not only solar and solar monitoring instruments, the LYRA UV radiometer geomagnetic data, but also interplanetary and particle and the SWAP telescope (Sun Watcher using Active Pixel data in other to establish a reliable association between System detector and Image Processing) for coronal the geomagnetic storm and a solar source. In our study imaging and space weather monitoring. We will we found one partial halo CME from the western limb overview the technical characteristics, the performance was geoeffective. This indicates that CMEs from the of SWAP and LYRA and the opportunities brought by the limb may be geoeffective, and hence limb CMEs should PROBA2 platform. The available PROBA2 data products remain considered for space weather forecast. and services will be presented, giving special attention to the unique complementarity of the SWAP images as *************** compared to SOHO/EIT, STEREO/SECCHI, and SDO/AIA. Similarly, the complementarity of LYRA data as Monitoring of Auroral Oval Location and Geomagnetic compared to other radiometers as GOES, TIMED‐SEE, Activity based on Magnetic Data from LEO Satellites. SORCE will be discussed. SWAP and LYRA have an open Vennerstrom, Susanne data policy and data products are available in near‐real Technical University of Denmark, DENMARK time, up to one hour after the facts.

Real‐time monitoring of geomagnetic activity is often *************** complicated by the fact that global coverage and measurements from many stations are required. In Creating an SEP Flux Database from ESA/SREM consequence local magnetic observations from a single Measurements station are often used as a substitute. Magnetic Sandberg, Ingmar1; Daglis, Ioannis2; Anastasiadis, observations from polar orbiting LEO satellites are, Anastasios2; Petteri, Nieminen3; Daly, Eamonn3 however, more global in nature and could be used as a 1National Observatory of Athens, GREECE; 2Institute for useful alternative for space weather applications. Such Space Applications and Remote Sensing, National data could also be used to monitor the location of the Observatory of Athens, GREECE; 3European Space auroral region, by monitoring the position of the auroral Agency, ESTEC, NETHERLANDS electrojets. Such a monitoring would be complimentary to the JHU/APL monitoring of the auroral oval position SREM, the ESA Standard Radiation Environment based on DMSP particle precipitation data. Monitor detects high‐energy electrons and protons and bins the measurements in broad and overlapping In this study observations of magnetic field intensity energy bands. from the Orsted and CHAMP satellite magnetometers are used to infer the position of the auroral electrojet In the framework of the ESA/ESTEC contract "SREM and to estimate global geomagnetic activity. This is, on Solar Particle Event Scientific Analysis", the Institute for event‐basis, compared to the automated auroral Space Applications and Remote Sensing of the National boundaries derived from DMSP, and a close Observatory of Athens (NOA/ISARS) has been correspondence is found between electrojet position developing and applying various methods for the and the position of the maximum in the average energy conversion of SREM count‐rates to SEP fluxes. of the precipitating electrons (boundary b2e). In addition measures of the auroral electrojet intensity are derived, that for the northern hemisphere is highly 36 The production of Solar Energetic Particles (SEP) fluxes defining the basic parameters and core observing from measurements of the SREM units on‐board several requirements for space weather with the goal of spacecraft with different orbits (LEO, MEO, IP and L2 integrating the space weather observation into the point), will provide novel, powerful data sets to the WMO Information System. Then the paper lists the space weather community. CMA’s work at present that focuses on establishing the ability in space weather observation, including the This paper presents extensive comparisons of flux spaced‐based instruments onboard FY‐3 and future FY‐4 datasets calculated by different conversion methods. It spacecrafts; the ground facilities for monitoring the further discusses various intra‐calibration and inter‐ solar events, the middle and upper Atmosphere and calibration schemes, employed to optimize SREM Ionosphere, the GPS network, and the Meridian Space counts‐to‐flux conversion methods towards the creation Weather Monitoring Project that shall build a chain of of an SEP flux database. stations along the 120E longitude and the 30N latitude for solar observation. *************** *************** Potential Use of NMDB for the real‐time Observation and Specification of the near‐Earth Radiation Operational Products of the Space Weather Environment Application Center Ionosphere (SWACI) and Steigies, Christian Capabilities of their Use Christian‐Albrechts‐Universität zu Kiel, GERMANY Jakowski, Norbert; Borries, Claudia; Wilken, Volker; Missling, Klaus‐Dieter; Barkmann, Henrike; Hoque, The real‐time database for high resolution neutron Mohammed Mainul; Koch, Christian; Danielides, monitor measurements (www.nmdb.eu) is a scientific Michael data repository which has been funded by the European German Aerospace Center, GERMANY Commission during 2008 and 2009. Currently NMDB is receiving data from 27 ground based cosmic ray The Space Weather Application Center Ionosphere stations, most of which are operated by European (SWACI) established at DLR Neustrelitz institutions. For global coverage, inclusion of neutron is a project which is essentially supported by the monitor data from US, Mexican, and South African German State Government of Mecklenburg‐ stations is anticipated. Vorpommern. Since the project will finish by the end of 2010, the talk will present the final version of data Primary applications of the database include the daily products provided by the SWACI service to registered determination of the galactic cosmic ray spectrum near customers. Earth, and the evaluation of the time dependent near‐ SWACI operates a powerful data processing system Earth spectrum of the solar cosmic rays during Ground working both in real‐time and post‐processing modes in Level Enhancements (GLEs). Further applications based order to provide actual information to the registered on the cosmic ray spectral data near Earth are e.g. the customers (http://swaciweb.dlr.de). In this talk we will calculation of the ionization rates and of the radiation focus on describing transionospheric link related data dose rates as a function of time on a global scale products offered in near real time for operational use in throughout the Earth's atmosphere. various applications such as GNSS based navigation and positioning and radar techniques in remote sensing. Typical data products include European and global maps The paper gives an overview of the database and of the Total Electron Content (TEC) and corresponding illustrates the power of its applications in view of the derivatives such as latitudinal and longitudinal gradients real‐time observation and specification of the near‐ and rate of change, updated every 5 minutes. Global Earth Radiation Environment. TEC maps are generated by GPS data provided by the International GNSS Service (IGS) networks in the near‐ *************** real‐time streaming mode. Whereas near‐real‐time TEC maps help to correct range CMA Activities in Space Weather Observation errors in navigation (e.g. range error for single Zhang, Xiaoxin frequency users) and remote sensing applications (e.g. National Center for Space Weather, CHINA correction of polarization plane rotation), high precision and safety of life applications need actual information This talk introduces the activities of CMA in association on the perturbation degree of the ionosphere. with the space weather observation. The activity of Consequently, to fulfil practical needs, SWACI offers two space weather is conducted by the National Center for product types. Space Weather(NCSW) which is another role of the Scintillation activity characterizing small scale National Satellite Meteorological Center of CMA. The ionospheric irregularities (e.g. S4 index) is obtained paper first introduces the work of Inter‐Programme along a Pan‐European meridional chain of GPS stations Coordination Team for Space Weather (ICTSW) in with 1 minute update. Furthermore, SWACI provides a 37 so‐called Disturbance Ionosphere Index (DIX) which Virtual Observatories are such new kind of supporting characterizes in particular medium and large scale tools that transformed the task of locating, finding the ionospheric disturbances. Definition and use of this interesting data as easy as using a website. index is discussed. To inform potential users, web‐presentation, data The Soteria Virtual Observatory is a next generation management and provision is briefly described. SWACI tool still in development that goes one step further. is already available for interested users at a service level Based on modern and standard technologies, it brings reached so far. In favour of further improving the the capabilities of search engines like Google® to solar service, enhanced data exchange with SWENET is physics world. foreseen. *************** Based on existing projects like VSO and EGSO, it capitalize on their success and provide from its NOAA’s Space Weather Services: Research Needs, inception a wide range of interfaces for the end user Opportunities, and Challenges and for other added value projects like HELIO. Bogdan, T.J.; Onsager; T.G. NOAA‐SWPC, UNITED STATES We will make a presentation of the capabilities of the

Soteria Virtual Observatory and illustrate the use of the The global demand for space weather information has available user tools. We will show how to: been increasing dramatically, even as space weather disturbances have been relatively minor throughout the ‐ Use the web interface to find and download specific recent minimum of the solar cycle. This increase in data demand has occurred among the commercial and ‐ Use IDL to search and use specific data. government sectors within the U.S. and in an expanding number of countries around the world. Space weather is undergoing an important transformation, as the We will finish the presentation by presenting an demand for decision‐capable information is beginning overview of the Soteria Virtual Observatory in the to exceed our ability to produce the needed framework of the Soteria project, how it can be used information. The limitations in our space weather with other tools and what can be the future of it. capabilities are due to a number of factors, including a sparsity of data, limitations in our ability to assimilate *************** data into our models, and the difficulties in modeling the diversity of scales and processes that control the The HELIO/HEC TSRS Catalogue of dm Solar Radio solar‐terrestrial environment. This presentation will Events summarize the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Messerotti, Mauro; Alberti, Valentina; Santin, Andrej; Administration (NOAA) Space Weather Prediction Marassi, Alessandro Center’s perspective on space weather services. We will INAF‐Astronomical Observatory of Trieste, ITALY summarize the products and services currently available and our future plans, including new service needs, We describe the catalogue of solar radio events opportunities for partnerships, and obstacles that must recorded at 1420 and 2695 MHz by the Trieste Solar be overcome. Radio System, that has been structured and compiled to facilitate cross‐searches of events in solar and heliospheric investigations as well as in space weather *************** post‐event analyses.

The Soteria Virtual Observatory : Offering Users Easier In fact, solar radio bursts observed at such frequencies Way to discover Data are typically associated with solar flares and the most 1 2 Callebaut, Benoit ; Berghmans, David intense ones can interfere GPS‐based operations and 1 2 Royal Observatory of Belgium, BELGIUM; Roal wireless communications. A comprehensive analysis of Observatory of Brussel, BELGIUM the phenomenology for physical modelling and for the estimation of the potential impacts on radio The production of scientific results is the driving force communication systems require extensive cross‐ behind all the Space Weather products and services. But searches through multiple data sets relevant to the that driving force doesn’t fulfil all its possibilities involved solar and solar‐terrestrial events. dedicated tools do not support it. Those tools are not only made of algorithms but also of tools that make the In this light, the TSRS catalogue has been tailored and classification, access and annotation of datasets ingested into the Heliophysics Event Catalogue (HEC), a painless. special service of the Heliophysics Integrated Observatory (HELIO), which provides the user with advanced capabilities of searching catalogues of solar and heliospheric events via an interactive web interface. 38 Some use cases involving the TSRS catalogue data to The Virtual Space weather Applications Network of emphasise its use in integrated event searches via Tools (ViSpaNeT) ‐ A Virtual Observatory for Data and HELIO/HEC. Modelling Assets Beltrami Karlezi, Pablo1; Hake, Philipp1; Gangloff, 2 3 4 In its final version the TSRS catalogue will cover the Michel ; Lazaro, Didier ; Heynderickx, Daniel ; Wintoft, 5 6 3 period 2000‐2009. Peter ; Hilgers, Alain ; Bourdarie, Sebastian 1etamax space, GERMANY; 2Université Paul Sabatier 3 4 *************** Toulouse, FRANCE; ONERA, FRANCE; DH Consultancy, BELGIUM; 5IRF, SWEDEN; 6ESA/ESTEC, NETHERLANDS CASSIS ‐ Moving forwards on Standards and Interoperability The Virtual Space weather Applications Network of Bentley, Robert1; Lapenta, Giovanni2; Blanc, Michel3; Tools ViSpaNeT, currently being developed in the frame Csillaghy, Andre4; Berghmans, David5; Capria, Maria of an ESA R&D study, will be designed to allow the Teresa6; Jacquey, Christian7; Fouchet, Thierry8 coupling of existing data & models from different 1University College London, UNITED KINGDOM; sources in order to provide warnings of space weather 2Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, BELGIUM; 3National hazards for space systems. Centre for Scientific Research, FRANCE; 4Fachhochschule Nordwestschweiz, SWITZERLAND; 5Royal Observatory of The system will use the approach followed by Virtual Belgium, BELGIUM; 6Istituto Nazionale di Astrophisica, Observatories (VO), which has proven successful in ITALY; 7Universite Paul Sabatier Toulouse III, FRANCE; providing networked access to data resources in a 8Observatoire de Paris, FRANCE number of other areas such as Astrophysics. The VO aims to provide a framework for access to distributed The research community is creating an increasingly rich data archives and models by facilitating the and diverse set of tools that can be used to support standardisation of archiving and data‐mining protocols different types of science including Space Weather, and by providing standardised format for model heliophysics, etc. Many of these are of use to virtual interfaces. In a virtual Observatory, each data source is observatories and other projects in a away that goes far treated as an instrument, allowing the user to search for beyond what the originators envisaged. the data most appropriate to his needs.

The Coordination Action for the integration of Solar Users like S/C designers or operators should be able to System Infrastructure and Science, CASSIS, is intended access the Vispanet central node (a web portal), which to stimulate the development of standards and in turn uses a common interface to call upon more techniques that will improve the interoperability of data specialised nodes such as ODI, SWENET, SAAPS, IPSAT or and services used in Solar System science. Through others. The central node will for example allow the user these activities we hope to improve the quality and to use the data from one node as input for a second usefulness of products and facilitate science that had node and to set automated runs and alerts based on not been possible before. specific threadholds.

CASSIS is a new project funded under FP7 that started The targeted users of the tool are: in June 2010. It includes partners from the HELIO, SOTERIA and Europlanet RI projects as well as involving  spacecraft designers groups like ESA, NASA, NOAA and UCLA. We welcome  spacecraft operators the participation of all interested parties in the  model developers and scientific community discussion and hope that this will lead to significant advances in this important area. More information ViSpaNeT will foster this collaborate with entities from about the project can be found on http:www.cassis‐ these three user groupsi by providing the means for vo.eu data access and exchange among the stakeholders, considering the three parties during the requirements *************** definition and subsequently in the system design.

This presentation will look into current objectives of the ViSpaNeT system, detailing its requirements and use cases and providing an outlook into the functions and capabilities of the tool.

The Vispanet project is funded under ESA contract number: 22539/09/NL/AT

*************** 39 Automated Solar Flare Prediction: Is it a Myth? rate and radiation background for a variety of Colak, Tufan1; Ahmed, Omar Wahab1; Qahwaji, Rami1; engineering scenarios. In this paper we highlight the Higgins, Paul2 models that have been developed during the SEPEM 1University of Bradford, UNITED KINGDOM; 2University project. The full release of the SEPEM application server of Bradford, IRELAND is taking place during ESWW7 and will be presented during the splinter meeting. Solar flares can have devastating impacts on our daily life; therefore it is very important to develop an *************** accurate flare prediction system that can help us to take preventative measures to mitigate flare impacts. In this Transitioning Space Science Models from Research to work we developed a flare prediction system based on Operations: Challenges and Opportunities active region properties. 21 active region properties Hesse, Michael; Kuznetsova, Masha; Rastaetter, Lutz; generated by SMART (Solar Monitor Active Region MacNeice, Peter; Taktaksihvili, Alexandre; Shim, Ja Tracking) system at Trinity College Dublin are used for Soon; Pulkkinen, Antti; Zheng, Yihua; Maddox, Marlo; determining their relations to flaring. Active regions for Berrios, David solar cycle 23 are associated with solar flares that were NASA GSFC, UNITED STATES occurred during the same time period. Machine learning methods, developed at the University of The transition of space weather models or of Bradford, are applied on the associated data to information derived from space weather models to investigate flare prediction performance of extracted space weather forecasting is the last step of the chain property set. The initial results shows very high flare from model development to model deployment in prediction performance in general and when compared forecasting operations. As such, it is an extremely to our previous Automated Solar Activity Prediction important element of the quest to increase our ability (ASAP) tool. These results will indicate the active region to forecast and mitigate space weather hazards. It properties that are most significant to flare occurrence involves establishing customer requirements, and and therefore will help us to develop an better analyses of available models, which are, in principle, automated flare prediction system. capable of delivering the required product. Models will have to be verified and validated prior to a selection of *************** the best performing model, accounting for the short model development time scale in the rapidly evolving ESA Solar Energetic Particle Environment Modelling field. Further considerations include operational Project SEPEM: Building the Underpinning Models hardware, and the evolving availability of data streams Crosby, Norma Bock1; Glover, Alexi2; Aran, Angels3; to drive the model. The final steps include the education Bonnevie, Cédric4; Dyer, Clive5; Ford, Karen5; Gabriel, of forecasters and customers. This presentation will Steve6; Hands, Alex5; Heynderickx, Daniel7; Jacobs, provide a discussion of experiences and opportunities Carla8; Jiggens, Piers3; King, David5; Poedts, Stefaan8; for rapid progress from the viewpoint of the Space Sanahuja, Blai9; Truscott, Pete5 Weather Laboratory. 1Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy, BELGIUM; 2 3 ESA/ESAC, SPAIN; ESA/ESTEC, NETHERLANDS; *************** 4BISA/RHEA, BELGIUM; 5QinetiQ, UNITED KINGDOM; 6 7 University of Southampton, UNITED KINGDOM; DH Application of Data Assimilation to Solar Wind Consultancy, BELGIUM; 8K.U. Leuven, BELGIUM; 9 Forecasting Models University of Barcelona, SPAIN Lapenta, Giovanni1; Innocenti, Maria Elena2; Vrsnak, Bojan3; Temmer, Manuela4; Veronig, A4; Crespon, F5; The main objectives of the ESA Solar Energetic Particle Skandrani, C5; Lee, E2 Environment Modelling (SEPEM) project have been to 1KU Leuven, BELGIUM; 2Centrum voor Plasma‐ create new engineering models and tools to address Astrofysica, Departement Wiskunde, Katholieke current and future needs, as well as simulate past Universiteit Leuven, Leuven, Belgium, BELGIUM; 3Hvar events and future scenarios. Both statistical and Observatory, Faculty of Geodesy, Zagreb, Croatia., physical modelling techniques have been addressed, CROATIA; 4Institute of Physics, University of Graz, Graz, covering SEP environments ranging from 0.2AU to Austria., AUSTRIA; 5Noveltis, Ramonville‐Saint‐Agne, 1.7AU. Essential supporting elements also developed France, FRANCE within the framework of SEPEM have been the creation of a standard solar energetic particle dataset and a user‐ Data Assimilation through Kalman filtering [1,2] is a friendly webserver with access to the models being powerful statistical tool which allows to combine developed under this project and a number of industry modeling and observations to increase the degree of standards. SEPEM moves beyond mission integrated knowledge of a given system. We apply this technique fluence statistics to peak flux statistics and durations of to the forecast of solar wind parameters (proton speed, high flux periods. Furthermore SEPEM has integrated proton temperature, absolute value of the magnetic effects tools to allow calculation of single event upset 40 field and proton density) at 1 AU, using the model irradiance. Here we present a procedure to compute described in Ref. [3] and ACE data as observations. The the evolution of the solar total and spectral irradiance model, which relies on GOES 12 observations of the based on solar disk magnetograms employing a neural percentage of the meridional slice of the sun covered by network model. In this work, we employ full disk coronal holes, grants 1‐day and 6‐hours in advance magnetograms from the MDI and HMI instruments on forecasts of the aforementioned quantities in quiet board of the SOHO and SDO spacecrafts, respectively. times (CMEs are not taken into account) during the The preliminary results, uncertainties and operational declining phase of the solar cycle and is tailored for issues are discussed in details. specific time intervals. We show that the application of data assimilation generally improves the quality of the *************** forecasts during quiet times and, more notably, extends the periods of applicability of the model, which can now Modeling Geomagnetic Cutoffs for Space Weather provide reliable forecasts also in presence of CMEs and Applications for periods other than the ones it was designed for. Kress, Brian T.1; Mertens, Christopher J.2; Wiltberger, [1] R. Kalman, J. Basic Eng. 82, 35 (1960). Michael3 [2] G. Welch and G. Bishop, Technical Report TR 95‐041, 1Dartmouth College, UNITED STATES; 2NASA Langley University of North Carolina, Department of Computer Research Center, UNITED STATES; 3National Center for Science (2001). Atmospheric Research, High Altitude Observatory, UNITED STATES The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Commission's Seventh At low‐ to mid‐latitudes the Earth's magnetic field Framework Programme (FP7/2007‐2013) under the usually shields the upper atmosphere and spacecraft in grant agreement SOTERIA (project n° 218816, low Earth orbit from solar energetic particles (SEPs). www.soteria‐space.eu). During severe geomagnetic storms distortion of the [3] B. Vrsnak, M. Temmer, and A. Veronig, Solar Phys. Earth's field suppresses geomagnetic shielding giving 240, 315 (2007). SEPs access to Earth's mid‐latitudes. Significant variations in geomagnetic shielding can occur on *************** timescales of an hour or less in response to changes in solar wind dynamic pressure and interplanetary Real‐Time Reconstructions of the Solar Irradiance for magnetic field. Magnetic shielding of energetic ions is Space Weather Applications in the SOTERIA Project quantified in terms of cutoff rigidity. Cutoff rigidities Framework computed in a geomagnetic field model can be used to Vieira, Luis Eduardo; Dudok de Wit, Thierry; obtain an estimate of SEP and cosmic ray fluxes in the Kretzschmar, Matthieu; Gaël, Cessateur Earth's upper atmosphere from observed or modeled CNRS and University of Orleans, FRANCE interplanetary spectra. The Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling (CISM)‐Dartmouth geomagnetic The solar electromagnetic emission (the solar cutoff model is being used in conjunction with the High irradiance) is the main source of energy for the ionized Energy and Charge Transport code (HZETRN) at the and neutral components of the highly coupled NASA/Langley research center to develop a real‐time atmospheric/oceanic system. Its variability determines data‐driven model of radiation exposure at commercial the structure and evolution of this system on time‐ airline altitudes. The geomagnetic cutoff model scales ranging from days to millennia. In this way, the provides a dynamic outer boundary condition for the real‐time monitoring of the solar electromagnetic HZETRN atmospheric transport code. Two emission is fundamental for weather and space weather advancements in recent years that have made a real‐ prediction models. Space‐based instruments on board time global cutoff calculation a possibility are (1) of spacecrafts during the last decades have allowed increased computer power, and (2) the development of quantitative investigations of the variability of the total accurate dynamic geomagnetic field models that and spectral irradiance. However, the systematic respond to changes in Dst, solar wind dynamic pressure monitoring of the solar irradiance employing space‐ and interplanetary magnetic field. A numerical model based instruments requires complex calibrations capable of a real time geomagnetic cutoff prediction will through the lifetime of the instruments/spacecrafts that be presented along with some initial results. limits the assessment of long‐term trends of the solar irradiance. For the period prior to direct observations, *************** several models based on the physical and statistical relationships between solar irradiance and other solar parameters have been developed. These models are based on the assumption that the evolution of the solar irradiance is determined by the magnetic structure of the solar atmosphere. These concepts can be employed to produce near‐real‐time reconstructions of the solar 41 Solar Shield Project ‐ Lessons learned and Advances Space weather effects on Yamal – Europe transit gas made pipeline: recent developments and prospects for Pulkkinen, Antti1; Hesse, Michael2; Habib, Shahid2; Van coming decade der Zel, Luke3; Damsky, Ben3; Policelli, Fritz2; Fugate, Salikhov, Zulfar1; Arabskii, Anatoly1; Zaitsev, Alexander2; David4; Jacobs, William4; Creamer, Elizabeth2 Petrov, Valery2 1Catholic University of America, UNITED STATES; 2NASA, 1Gasprom‐Dobycha‐Yamburg, RUSSIAN FEDERATION; UNITED STATES; 3EPRI, UNITED STATES; 4ERM, UNITED 2IZMIRAN, RUSSIAN FEDERATION STATES The Yamal peninsula is located in the Russian Arctic and The Solar Shield project was a collaborative effort contains the biggest gas reserves on the planet. Indeed, between the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) the GASPROM pipeline Yamal‐Europe has an annual and NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GFSC). The capacity of about 33 billion cubic meters of natural gas. central objective of the project that was funded by the The tube operates as a long conductor, has corrosion NASA Applied Sciences Program was to utilize state‐of‐ cathode protection and therefore is able to protect the‐art space physics models in experimental itself against the external influence of induction forecasting of geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) in currents which originate due to ionosphere and the North American high‐voltage power transmission magnetosphere currents. External current sources have system. In Solar Shield, an extensive pool of coupled maximum values in the auroral zone so their influence is space physics models hosted at the Community most effective in this region. For observation points Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) at NASA GSFC placed in the middle latitudes such an influence was used. The utilized models propagate information decreases up to 10 times and more. However, during obtained from the remote solar observations to the global magnetic storms, when the near‐Earth space is interplanetary medium, from the interplanetary occupied by strong magnetosphere currents, the medium to the Earth's magnetosphere and ionosphere induction effects in middle latitudes will reach values and eventually all the way down to the surface of the comparable with those in the auroral zone. Earth and GIC. The two‐level forecasting system provides both 2‐3 day lead‐time and 30‐60 minute lead‐ In the case of the Yamal peninsula we have the situation time forecasts. The Solar Shield final report was when induction currents (telluric currents in the terms provided to the NASA Applied Sciences Program on April of gas personnel) might exceed the regulated cathode 1, 2010. currents and lead to extreme corrosion conditions. In the coming decade new pipelines will be constructed In this paper, an overview of the Solar Shield project is from Yamal (Bovanenkovo deposit) to Europe, including given. In particular, new advances such as the the Nord Stream pipeline. The Gasprom‐Dobycha‐ generation of tailored first‐principles‐based 2‐3 lead‐ Yamburg company is responsible for the production and time forecasts and extension of the global MHD‐based transport of gas in the Yamal region, so it plans to take forecasts to low‐latitude locations are discussed. EPRI into account all factors which might affect the pipelines. carried out comprehensive analysis of the economic First of all they plan to use magnetometers as control impacts of large GIC events, which was used to quantify tools for the external influence of magnetic the value of the established forecasting system. Also the disturbances on the pipelines. economic aspects of the Solar Shield project are briefly discussed. The experimental system has been For the proper operation of the pipelines we will need a generating forecasts now for more than two years and real‐time information system concerning the state of the team has accumulated wealth of experience and Earth’s magnetic field. Such an initiative is currently learned number of important lessons in operating the under realization and we present here the first results system. Challenges and future prospects associated of our work in establishing a warning system based on with these lessons are discussed. the magnetometer recordings. We will search for expected conditions which might be considered as *************** those necessary to induce space weather effects on the new built pipelines. In view of the upcoming increase in solar activity in the next decade this work will be invaluable.

***************

42 equation is then written as a second order equation in A Global Ionosphere Scintillation Propagation Model order to get higher moments of the transmitted signal. for Equatorial Regions Beniguel, Yannick *************** IEEA, FRANCE Model and Visualization Software for the Nowcasting As a result of propagation through ionosphere electron of the Middle Atmosphere density irregularities, transionospheric radio signals may Rozanov, Eugene1; Egorova, Tatiana2; Hochmuth, experience amplitude and phase fluctuations. In Nicky3; Shapiro, Alexander2; Shapiro, Anna1; Schmutz, equatorial regions, these signal fluctuations specially Werner2 occur during equinoxes, after sunset, and last a few 1PMOD/WRC and IAC ETHZ, SWITZERLAND; hours. They are more intense in periods of high solar 2PMOD/WRC, SWITZERLAND; 3Institut für 4D‐ activity. These fluctuations result in signal degradation Technologien, Fachhochschule Nordwestschweiz, from VHF up to C band. The corresponding errors are SWITZERLAND the most prominent errors for Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS). We have developed climate‐chemistry‐ionosphere model SOCOL which is based on a general circulation The signal fluctuations, referred as scintillations, are model and includes complete representation of the created by random fluctuations of the medium's chemistry of neutral and ionized species in the refractive index, which are caused by inhomogeneities atmosphere from the ground up to the mesopause. To inside the ionosphere. These inhomogeneities (or validate the model we have simulated the response of bubbles) develop under several deionization instability the neutral and charged species in the middle processes. These processes start after sunset when the atmosphere to the short‐term increase of the solar UV sun ionization drops to zero, consequently at nighttime. irradiance in January 2004 and severe solar proton Several instability processes can be identified leading to events in October‐November 2003 and January 2005. the development of bubbles: gradient drift, Rayleigh‐ The results of the simulations were compared with the Taylor, Kelvin‐Helmholtz, gravitational dependency, ... available measurements with satellite and ground based The way they develop depends on the altitude and they instruments. Reasonable agreement of the simulated give rise to different characteristic dimensions. In results with observations confirms the applicability of addition, the magnetic field plays an important role the model for the nowcasting of the neutral and which results in elongated bubbles in that direction and charged species in the middle atmosphere using the consequently an anisotropic medium. The medium's near‐real time solar spectral irradiance data. The model drift velocity and its direction are also important functioning in the nowcasting mode will be illustrated parameters to be considered. using specially designed visualization software. For the demonstration purposes the model will be driven by the This paper presents the basis of a multiple phase screen real time solar spectral irradiance calculated with solar theoretical model allowing reproducing the signal radiation code COSI using the sun surface magnetic field modifications due to propagation through ionosphere observed in October‐November 2010. and generating time series at receiver level. The basis of this model is a resolution of the parabolic equation. The *************** ionosphere medium and in particular the fluctuating medium characteristics strongly influences the result. Next‐Generation Space‐Borne Instrumentation for The corresponding data will be presented together with Space‐Weather monitoring and Forecast the sensitivity of the results to these characteristics. Rodmann, Jens; Daly, Eamonn; Drolshagen, Gerhard; Hilgers, Alain; Jiggens, Piers; Menicucci, Alessandra; Figure below shows two examples of scintillation maps Nieminen, Petteri; Rodgers, David; Santin, Giovanni obtained with the model. The left panel is a global map ESA/ESTEC, NETHERLANDS corresponding to vertical observations. It shows the extent of the fluctuating region. The right panel shows a Most quantities needed for space‐weather monitoring local map of observations from a ground station located and forecast can be only measured from space. in Indonesia. Comparison with measurements which will Depending on the type of measurement and timeliness be presented concurrently shows a very reasonable considerations, specific locations are required. argument. The European Space Agency is actively conducting Those two examples have been obtained for a several feasibility studies of and developments for monochromatic signal corresponding to L1 GPS advanced space‐weather instrumentation through its frequency. The case of large bandwidth signals will in various R&D programmes. We will give an overview of addition be presented, corresponding either to radar ongoing activities. observations or to pulse propagation. The parabolic

43 Finally, gaps in the measurement infrastructure will be and 250 km from the active site, providing optimal addressed. New technologies for sensors and detectors geometry for vectors in the middle and upper as well as the use of previously unexplored locations atmosphere. An active site comprising 16,000 elements (e.g. L5, L3) might help to close these gaps. A few will exceed the sensitivity of the present VHF radar by examples on some current ideas will be given. an order of magnitude.

*************** In autumn 2009, a multi‐national consortium made an application funding of a Preparatory Phase Project for CINEMA/TRIO: A Three‐Spacecraft Space Weather large‐scale infrastructures on the ESFRI Roadmap within CubeSat Mission the 7th Framework Programme. At the time of the 7th Horbury, Timothy1; Brown, Patrick1; Eastwood, European Space Weather Week, this project entitled Jonathan1; Lin, Robert2; Immel, Thomas2; Glaser, David2; "EISCAT_3D: A European Three‐Dimensional Imaging Lee, Dong‐Hun3; Seon, Jongho3; Jin, Ho3 Radar for Atmospheric and Geospace Research" has 1Imperial College London, UNITED KINGDOM; 2Space commenced and is in its second month. In addition, Science Lab, UC Berkeley, UNITED STATES; 3School of funding in excess of 1 MEUR has been granted on Space Research, Kyung Hee University, Yongin, national level in Finland for crucial development work REPUBLIC OF KOREA related to EISCAT_3D. This funding will be used to build a VHF test site in Kilpisjarvi in summer 2011. CINEMA/TRIO (CubeSat for Ions, Neutrals, Electrons and Magnetic fields) is a mission of three identical CubeSats The poster presented here will summarise the in high inclination low Earth orbits, carrying two development thus far and outline the plans for the instruments: a suprathermal electron, ion and neutral development towards building this exciting new facility. sensor (STEIN) and a magnetometer from Imperial We invite all interested parties to get in touch now and College (MAGIC). The spacecraft will provide multi‐point express their interests and indeed their requirements measurements of near ‐Earth space including: for this facility now, so that they can be taken into stereoscopic energetic neutral atom imaging of the ring account by the planning team. current with 1keV energy resolution; direct measurement of ion precipitation in the auroral regions *************** including pitch angle distributions, from just a few keV; full energy characterisation of electron microbursts; and Effects of geomagnetic disturbances on Oktyabrskaya high cadence measurements of magnetospheric waves railway in Russia and transients. The multi‐point magnetic field Sakharov, Yaroslav1; Katkalov, Yury2; Kudryashova, measurements of CINEMA/TRIO will be an ideal test bed Nataly2; Danilin, Arkadij3; Shabalin, Anatoliy4; Pirjola, for space weather effects on data from ESA's upcoming Risto5; Viljanen, Ari5 SWARM mission. The mission is a collaboration of UC 1Polar Geophysical Institute, RUSSIAN FEDERATION; Berkeley, Kyung Hee University and Imperial College 2Polar Geophysical Institure, RUSSIAN FEDERATION; London and has received funding from the US National 3Kola Sceince Center RAS, RUSSIAN FEDERATION; Science Foundation and Korea's World Class University 4Oktyabrskaya railway, RUSSIAN FEDERATION; 5Finnish programme; the first spacecraft is expected to launch in Meteorological Institute, FINLAND late 2011. Possible relationship of anomalies in the operation of *************** railway (RW) automatic systems with geomagnetic disturbances has been investigated at the Oktyabrskaya EISCAT_3D: Development of a large Near‐Earth Space railway running from St. Petersburg to Murmansk, monitoring System in Europe Russia. Ulich, Thomas A response to the strongest magnetic storms has been Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory, FINLAND found in the RW‐ automatic operation at some stations in the subauroral zone. Generation of telluric currents EISCAT_3D will be Europe's next‐generation radar for or GIC is concluded to be the reason for the effect. studies of the high‐latitude atmosphere and geospace, Besides global storms, magnetospheric substorms also with capabilities going beyond anything currently seem significant for both the development of GIC and available. The facility will consist of large phased arrays failures in automatic systems. Statistical estimations of in three countries. Depending on funding, EISCAT_3D the connection between magnetic disturbances and will comprise tens of thousands, up to more than anomalies in the operation of RW‐automatic systems 100,000 antenna elements. The EISCAT_3D design have been made for the period 2002 ‐ 2006. combines capabilities for volumetric imaging and tracking and aperture synthesis imaging, with improved *************** sensitivity and transmitter flexibility. A minimum of five sites is envisaged, with receivers located around 120 km

44 The Influence of the Plasmasphere in the Space Finally, the simulation method is applied to a number of Environment specific examples of practical scientific and engineering Pierrard, Viviane1; Benck, Sylvie2; Darrouzet, Fabien1; interest. First, we consider cases typical of existing and Cabrera, Juan2; Voiculescu, Mirela3 planned missions: Cluster and MMS. Second, we 1Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy, BELGIUM; consider the application of the code to other problems 2Center for Space Radiations, UCL, BELGIUM; 33. Faculty such as the charging of the Moon surface and of objects of Sciences and Environment, Dunarea de Jos University on it (such as irregularities in the natural surface, of Galati, ROMANIA boulders or craters or man‐made objects such as a rover). The plasmasphere is the extension of the ionosphere at The code is public domain and open source and can be low and middle latitude. This highly dynamic region is downloaded from: disturbed during geomagnetic storms and substorms, http://code.google.com/p/democritus/ with formation of a sharp plasmapause closer to the The practical use of the code will be illustrated. Earth and generation of a plume in the afternoon MLT The collaboration with the MMS theory team of sector. The plasmaspheric TEC (Total Electron Content) University of Colorado and with the Lunar Science is quite variable during these periods and has effect on Institute also at University of Colorado is gratefully the Global Positioning System (GPS). The plasmaspheric acknowledge. Work funded by the NASA MMS Mission. region is populated by cold plasma from the ionosphere The research leading to these results has received and has direct influence on other regions of the funding from the European Commission's Seventh magnetosphere. For instance, radiation belt energetic Framework Programme (FP7/2007‐2013) under the particle populations are very sensitive to the core grant agreement SOTERIA (project n° 218816, plasmasphere distribution and specifically to the www.soteria‐space.eu). position of the plasmapause. There is a relationship between the position of the plasmapause and the inner *************** edge of the outer radiation belt. These energetic particles of the radiation belts are problematic for Instantaneous Wave Vector of low Frequency Waves in spacecraft and astronauts. the Downstream of Earth's Bow Shock Moreover, correspondence exists between the Nathaniel, Ekong; Beloff, N.; Buckley, A. plasmapause position and the (F region) ionospheric University of Sussex, UNITED KINGDOM trough. Coincident observations of middle and top ionosphere, satellite tomography, radar measurements Knowing the various constituent signals embedded in and plasmapause observations are used to investigate data collected in the downstream of Earth's bow shock the conditions when the F region trough is associated by FGM instrument on Cluster II spacecraft using with the plasmapause. These various relations are empirical mode decomposition (EMD), we carefully illustrated by comparing satellite and ground‐based extract the components with physical meaning and observations with the plasmaspheric model developed sense reflecting the data called intrinsic mode functions at BISA. (imf). The frequency decomposition of the resulting wave modes is based on Simple Hilbert Transform (SHT) *************** leading to the determination of instantaneous frequencies. Every instantaneous local wavenumber DEMOCRITUS: An Adaptive Particle In Cell (PIC) Code associated with the instantaneous frequencies were for teh Simulation of Satellite‐Environment then determined. Interactions Lapenta, Giovanni *************** KU Leuven, BELGIUM Simulation of Surface charging in Dusty Plasma A new method for the simulation of the interactions Environment between a spacecraft and its environment is presented. Anuar, Abul1; Honary, Farideh1; Hapgood, Mike2 The method is based on the particle in cell technique for 1Lancaster University, UNITED KINGDOM; 2CLRC Royal the description of the plasma and on the immersed Appleton Laboratory, UNITED KINGDOM boundary method for the description of the interactions between materials and plasma particles. A technique to Surface charging has proven to be a factor that affect adapt the local number of particles and grid adaptation spacecraft operation in space but there are very few are used to reduce the truncation error and the noise of discussion on charging in dusty plasma environment. In the simulations, to increase the accuracy per unit cost. dusty plasma, the presence of third plasma constituent, Complex physics processes such as absorption and complicates spacecraft charging problem as the much emission from surfaces are treated by the immersed heavier dust but with large number of residing charge boundary method. affect both the plasma and spacecraft properties. In the present work, the computational method is Simulating this environment has been difficult due to validated against known results. 45 the multiple interactions and timescale involved. This show solar activity dependence; 3) The fluxes and dose paper looks at the possibility of using SPIS, a toolkit rates in the range 1.54.5 increases in average from about HRPT Operations 6.1 to 13.5 µGyh‐1. The flux increase in average from ‐2 ‐1 Evans, Hugh; Daly, Eamonn; Santin, Giovanni; Strijk, S.; 1.64 to 3.23 cm s . The analysis of the GCR flux and Sturesson, S. dose rate latitudinal profiles gives the following: 1) The ESA, NETHERLANDS latitudinal profile at each vehicle shows similar shape with a minimum close to the geomagnetic equator, Single event effects in components arise from rising up part up to L=3.5 and knee followed by fixed interactions with high energy cosmic rays, trapped values or smaller slope of the curve at high L values; 2) protons and solar energetic particles. The geographic The fluxes and doses in the equatorial region do not 46 distribution of these particles in a sun synchronous orbit CR Ionization in the Earth Atmosphere on 20 January results in a geographic variability in the risk of an upset 2005 Obtained with Monte Carlo Simulation occurring. By considering geomagnetic shielding Velinov, Peter1; Mishev, Alexander2 effectiveness and models of the trapped proton belt, 1Space and Solar‐Terrestrial Research Institute, the risk of upsets has been characterised for specific BULGARIA; 2Nuclear Regulatory Agency, Sofaa, components in the METOP HRPT unit. The BULGARIA SPENVIS/CREME software has been modified to provide LET spectra for Gallium Arsenide (GaAs) components The Sun sporadically emits cosmic rays (CR) of sufficient and the geomagnetic shielding component updated to energy and intensity to increase radiation levels on the include the IGRF field model. surface of Earth. It was identified that solar protons of MeV energies cause excess in the ionospheric D‐region. *************** CR produce also ionization over the polar caps following some major solar disturbances. The production rate Space Weather on the Moon may be evaluated from the proton flux using the basic Cipriani, F.; Hilgers, A.; Rodgers, D.; Nieminen, P.; physics of air ionization and an appropriate atmospheric Nieminen, P. model. ESA, NETHERLANDS In this work we present studies related with 20th Several missions to the Moon have been recently January 2005 solar event. The solar eruptive‐fare event completed or are planned including some landing of 20 January 2005 is of big attention of the solar and payloads: ESA Lunar Lander, NASA Lunar Atmospheric solar‐terrestrial community due to its outstanding and Dust Environment Explorer and International Lunar characteristics. It was characterized by strong gamma‐ Network, CNSA Chang’e X. The Lunar environment is ray emission with energy, at least, up to 200 MeV; by a very different from the Earth’s because of the absence fast halo‐type coronal mass ejection. The most of atmosphere and magnetic field. It is closer to the important, it was accompanied by an unusually hard‐ interplanetary environment (solar wind, galactic cosmic spectrum solar energetic particle flux near Earth rays, solar energetic particles) with some features including the second largest ground‐level enhancement related to the interaction of the Moon’s surface with in the observational history. The strongest solar proton highly variable particles populations along the Moon’s event was on 23 February 1956. orbit (solar wind, magnetosheath, Earth’s magnetotail and the lunar wake). Sunlit surfaces may charge Another special feature of this event is that during the positively due to photoelectron emission (~10V) while first hour the proton spectrum parameters are lunar wake / night‐side surfaces, and shadowed areas dramatically changing. The changes of the spectra are within craters or regions with complex topography connected with particle acceleration mechanism (especially south pole terrains) may develop highly preceding the coronal mass ejection. negative potentials (up to several kV during SEP events). Exposure to such environment during extreme solar It is possible to fit the spectra, extending from <0.1 to activity may therefore produce surface charging hazards >100 MeV/nucl with double‐power‐law form. similar to those in GEO orbits. The complexity is Afterwards it is a matter of algorithm to estimate to increased by the presence of active charged lunar dust, solar cosmic ray induced ionization in the atmosphere. which can levitate, become energized, or stick to The event of 20 January 2005 is remarkable, it produced materials causing clogging and obscuration. In addition, the highest flux of relativistic solar particles observed at cosmic rays and solar energetic particles interact with many neutron monitors for nearly 50 years. In this the lunar regolith at a few meters depth and with connection the impact of this event at Earth human‐built systems. Radiation hazards to humans and atmosphere, namely ionization is of a big interest. While unmanned systems have to be considered, including the the direct energy input of cosmic rays into the contribution from the production of secondary atmosphere is significant, they form the main source of particles. For lunar mission including orbiters, landers ionization. and human elements, a large number of situations has to be considered. A review is made of the different Primary cosmic ray particles impinge the Earth types of space environments to consider for lunar atmosphere and release energy via nuclear interaction missions, of their potential impacts on space system and and ionization losses. When a particle from primary of the possibilities to monitor and predict them. cosmic ray radiation penetrates the Earth’s atmosphere she produces nuclear‐electromagnetic‐lepton cascade. *************** The high‐energy primary solar cosmic ray collides with an atmospheric nucleus and produces new, very energetic particles. Those also collide with air nuclei, and each collision adds a large number of particles to the developing cascade. The electrons and positrons re‐

47 generate gamma rays via Bremsstrahlung, building the Role of Non‐Resonant Wave‐Particle Interactions on electromagnetic cascade. In practice the totality of Relativistic Electron Flux in Radiation Belts during these particles depose energy in the Earth atmosphere Magnetic Storms and ionize the medium. Lemaire, Joseph1; Cabrera, Juan1; Benck, Sylvie1; Cyamukungu, Mathias1; Pierrard, Viviane2 1 2 A common tool for atmospheric cascade investigation is Center for Space Radiations at UCL, BELGIUM; Belgian Monte Carlo simulation of the cascade process. We Institute for Space Aeronomy, BELGIUM apply CORSIKA 6.52 code with corresponding hadronic interaction models FLUKA 2006 and QGSJET II for Two years before the discovery of the Van Allen, Fred cascade simulations in the atmosphere. In addition we Singer (1956) had proposed that Stoermer's Ring present the spectrum in two parts: at 08:00 UT a high Current is generated by the drifts of charged particles energy part with slope of 2.32 and at 23:00 UT low trapped in the Earth's magnetic field. He argued even, energy part with slope of 3.43, with corresponding that grad‐B drifts of protons and electrons in the Earth's intensities. In addition the ionization rate is estimated dipole magnetic field are producing the annular current for 40° N, 60° N and 80° N at Greenwich meridian taking which is responsible for the main phase of geomagnetic into account the corresponding rigidity cut‐off. We storms. simulate 50 000 events (primary proton nuclei) per A few years later, Dessler and Karplus (1961) showed energy spectrum and assuming US Standard that adiabatic betatron acceleration and deceleration Atmosphere model, which is divided per 10 g/cm2. This play a fundamental role in the dynamics of Ring Current permits a detailed description of ionization profiles. The and trapped particles of the Radiation Belts (RB). The contribution of the different cascade components is effects of betatron mechanism on RB electrons and explicitly taken into account, namely the protons was verified experimentally by McIlwain (1964, electromagnetic, muon and hadron component. 1966). Indeed, based on early RB measurements, he demonstrated that the adiabatic betatron mechanism The ionization rate is obtained according Oulu model accounts very well for the variations of > 0.5 MeV and following Sofia algorithm. The detailed description electrons flux during, Dst, changes less than ~80 nT. of obtained ionization rate profiles is shown for various McIlwain's Explorer 26 observations exhibited also geomagnetic cut‐offs. In addition a discussion of occasional (but unexpected) non‐adiabatic variations of presented rates is carried out. Generally the ionization the fluxes of trapped relativistic electrons. The latter are rates quickly become smaller with decreasing not yet fully understood (McIlwain, 1998). VLF and/or geomagnetic latitude. Several application related to ULF resonant wave‐particle interactions were generally atmospheric physics and chemistry are widely invoked to model such occasional flux enhancements. discussed. Non‐resonant interactions of VLF and/or ULF waves REFERENCES with ambient RB electrons produce non‐adiabatic variations of the RB fluxes during geomagnetic storm 1. Bailey, D. K. Abnormal ionization in the lower events when such waves are present in the equatorial ionosphere associated with cosmic‐ray enhancements. region. As a result of these wave‐particle interactions, Proc. IEE 47, 1959, 255–266. the pitch‐angle distribution spreads out, and more 2. Mewaldt R. A. et al., Solar‐Particle Energy Spectra electrons are scattered into the loss cone. On the other during the Large Events of October‐November 2003 and hand, when Dst decreases, the Bz‐component of the January 2005. Proc. 29th Int. Cosmic Ray Conference, magnetic field decreases, the altitudes of mirror points 2005, Pune, India, 1: 111‐114. are rising to higher altitudes (because of the 3. Velinov P.I.Y. et al. Cosmic Ray Influence on the conservation of the first adiabatic invariant), and aoc, Ionosphere and on the Radio‐Wave Propagation, BAS the equatorial loss cone angle becomes narrower during Publ. House, Sofia, 1974. the several hours that main phases last (Lemaire et al., 4. Usoskin I., G. Kovaltsov. J. Geophys. Res., 111, 2006, 2005). As a consequence of the global rise of mirror D21206. 5. Velinov P. I.Y., A. Mishev, L. Mateev, J. Adv. points, RB electrons concentrate closer to the Space Res., 44, 2009, 9, 1002‐1007. equatorial plane, and thus the collision of the RB 6. Heck D. et al., CORSIKA: A Monte Carlo Code to electrons with atmospheric constituents is significantly Simulate Extensive Air Showers. Report FZKA 6019 reduced; all this concourse to increase the trapping time Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, 1997. of the particles. Furthermore, due to the adiabatic 7. Mishev A., P.I.Y.Velinov, Compt. rend. Acad. bulg. Sci. narrowing of aoc the precipitation rate of particles into 60, 2007, 11, 1231‐1236. the atmosphere drops as consistently observed during the main phases of magnetic storms. *************** When non‐adiabatic pitch‐angle scattering by VLF chorus, or ULF waves are operating at the same time as

the betatron mechanism, the predictions of adiabatic model fail to be satisfactory; indeed larger numbers of 48 stably trapped particles accumulates above the Prestorm NmF2 Enhancements at low Latitudes: One atmosphere until the Bz‐component stops decreasing, more Delusion? and the recovery to the pre‐storm Dst value is initiated. Mikhailov, Andrei1; Perrone, Loredana2 1Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and During this recovery phase, the reverse betatron Radio Wave Propagation (IZMIRAN), RUSSIAN 2 mechanism accelerates the electrons to their initial FEDERATION; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e energy, it moves all mirror points back into the denser Vulcanologia (INGV), ITALY layers of the atmosphere, and it increases the loss cone angles to pre‐storm values. The flux of RB particles Using ground‐based ionosonde observations in the measured at fixed altitude is then American longitudinal sector at the geomagnetic increasing/recovering; it should end up to be larger than equator (Huancayo and Jicamarca) and stations located the pre‐storm values if the average amplitudes of VLF in the vicinity of the Equatorial Ionization Anomaly (EIA) and ULF waves are lower during the recovery phase crests (Bogota and Tucuman) cases of NmF2 then during the main phase. enhancements similar to those discussed in recent publications were analyzed for their possible According to the scenario proposed above, the intensity relationship with the following magnetic disturbances. of post‐storm fluxes depends on the concomitant For recent years ground‐based NmF2 observations were scattering effects of waves and the betatron mechanism supported by TEC data and CHAMP in‐situ electron during the main phases of geomagnetic storms. In the density measurements. By analogy with earlier obtained absence of wave activity (i.e. non‐resonant and results on middle and sub‐auroral latitudes it is possible resonant pitch‐angle scattering) the intensity of post‐ to conclude that there are no convincing arguments storm fluxes will at best be equal to that during the pre‐ that the observed cases of NmF2 and TEC prestorm storm period. It could eventually be smaller if non‐ enhancements at low latitudes considered by Liu et al. adiabatic wave‐particle interactions are present during [2008a,b] bear a relation to the following magnetic the whole time, or most efficient during the recovery storms, i.e. there is no such an effect as the prestorm phase. NmF2 enhancement at the EIA crests as a phenomenon inalienably related to the following magnetic storm. A In the presentation, we will illustrate how "non‐ spotty longitudinal structure of TEC at the EIA crests resonant wave‐particle interactions", when combined contradicts the conclusion about TEC enhancements with the betatron mechanism, can also account for non‐ which "confined at narrow longitude ranges with adiabatic variations of the RB fluxes occasionally centers at around longitude 120E". TEC enhancements observed during some geomagnetic storm events. with the same magnitude can be observed in different longitudinal sectors. Strong NmF2 enhancements at the EIA crests are observed under very quiet magnetic Singer, S.F. [1956], Bull. Am. Phys. Soc. Series II, 1, 229 conditions and they can be attributed to the class of (A) quiet‐time F2‐layer disturbances which are due to Singer, S.F., Lemaire J.F. [2009], Geomagnetically vertical ExB plasma drifts. Trapped radiations : half a Century of Research, in "Fifty According to recent publications such quiet‐time years of Space Research", Ed. A. Zakharov, Space longitudinally dependent ExB drifts are due to Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, nonmigrating tidal winds or planetary waves and they Moscow, pp. 115‐127 have nothing to do with geomagnetic activity. Dessler, A.J. and R. Karplus, [1961], J. Geophys. Res., 66,

2289 *************** McIlwain, C.E.,[1964], Space Res. V, 374 McIlwain, C.E.,[1966], J. Geophys. Res. 71, 3623 "Radiation Belts: Models and Standards", AGU Tracking Intense Geomagnetic Storms to the Geophysical Monograph 97, Eds J. F. Lemaire, D. Interplanetary Medium and Solar Sources. A Case Heynderickx and D.N. Baker, p. 15‐26 Study Schmieder, Brigitte1; Mandrini, Cristina2; Démoulin, Kim, H.‐J. and A. Chan [1997], J. Geophys. Res. 102, 1 2 3 22107 Pascal ; Dasso, Sergio ; Cid, Consuelo 1Observatoire de Paris, FRANCE; 2IAFE, ARGENTINA; Lemaire J.F., S.G. Batteux and I.N. Slypen, J. Atmos. 3 SolarTerr. Physics, 67, 719‐727, 2005 University of Alcala, SPAIN

*************** On May, 2005, at 02:38 UT an interplanetary shock was recorded by ACE. The following interplanetary structure produced an important geomagnetic storm (minimal

value of the Dst index=‐263 nT). Analysis of interplanetary (plasma and magnetic) observations has

shown that these disturbances could correspond to the arrival of magnetic clouds.

49 The main trigger of the geomagnetic storm is that the ionization rate in the middle atmosphere is definitively the fast halo CME of May 13 (LASCO) evaluated in these moments. observed consequently to the falre occurring at 17:22 UT in the active region 10759. However the analysis of The ozone production rate in the atmosphere is different possible scenarios for the interpretation. The determined on the basis of this ionization rate for these existence of two clouds produced by two different solar different moments. After that the ozone quantity in events on May 13 (two different filament eruption) is these time intervals is calculated by integration in time. the more probable scenario. For the computation of cascade processes ionization the The agreement between the magnetic helicity sign in model CORSIKA 6.52 is used. The hadron interactions the source region and the magnetic clouds, together are modeled with the subroutines GHEISHA and QGSJET with the agreement between the MC axis orientations II. As a result some interesting results are obtained. It and the polarity inversion line directions, support this turns out that the low energy flux is more important for view. The scintillation experiment of Ooty observes an the ozone density changes than the high energy enhancement of the density produce by the clouds. particles. The results from the statistical processing present a basis to seek a physical explanation for the *************** ozone increase in the lower stratosphere. A quantitative estimation is made for this purpose concerning the Ozone Distribution due to Solar Cosmic Rays in possibility for creation of ozone by the solar cosmic ray October‐November 2003 at Middle and High flux. The calculations are made for the first 15 hours Geomagnetic Latitudes after the event which corresponds to the delay from the Velinov, Peter1; Tassev, Yordan1; Mateev, Lachezar1; statistical processing. This estimation includes the Mishev, Alexander2 following steps: 1SPACE AND SOLAR‐TERRESTRIAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE, 2 BULGARIA; NUCLEAR REGULATORY AGENCY‐ 1. Differential energy spectrum determination for the BULGARIA, BULGARIA proton flux in two different moments. 2. Evaluation of the ionization rate in the atmosphere at The galactic cosmic rays (CR) create ionization in the these two different moments. terrestrial atmosphere, particularly in the stratosphere 3. Evaluation of the ozone production rate in the and the troposphere. They present a basic ionization atmosphere at these two different moments. source under the altitude 35 km towards the sea level. 4. Evaluation of the ozone quantity which is created in The solar CR are generated in their great part by solar the time interval between these two different proton events. The coronal mass ejections (CME) also moments. generate energetic particles. Usually the solar cosmic rays have energy of a few hundreds MeV, rarely ‐ a little On the basis of the cosmic ray impact the nuclear above several GeV. The primary cosmic ray particles cascade processes in the terrestrial atmosphere are create Bremsstrahlung in the terrestrial atmosphere modeled. The ionization rate can be estimated from the from nuclear cascade processes in it. The high energy Earth’s surface until the upper atmosphere for the given primary particles penetrate in the terrestrial solar proton flare. The model CORSIKA 6.52 with the atmosphere, collide with the atmospheric nuclei and corresponding hadron interaction modules GHEISHA create new energetic particles. The secondary particles and QGSJET II is applied for the cascade processes. The give up their energy in the terrestrial atmosphere. As a electromagnetic interactions are modeled in CORSIKA result from it the atmosphere is ionized. with the module EGS4. The atmosphere is divided in 103 steps from 10 g/cm2 which secures high accuracy. The corpuscular‐electromagnetic cascades in the The lowest cut‐off energy value from 10 MeV is applied. atmosphere play important role in the physics and the Now the vertical distribution of the ozone production chemistry of the ion balance there. It is well known, that rate in the atmosphere as a result from the proton flux the low energy particles intensity is greater than that of impact must be appreciated. It can be calculated using the high energy particles. Therefore the ionization the experimental data for estimation of the oxygen – appreciation for different events will be very nitrogen gas mixture radiolysis. Ozone and nitrogen interesting, because the ion balance in the atmosphere oxides are generated by irradiation of oxygen ‐ nitrogen will be also different. On that basis the influences and mixture. The oxygen ‐ nitrogen mixture can be assumed changes concerning the minor constituents' density, as as a good description of air. the ozone density, will be determined. The following cosmic ray events are investigated: 28, 29 October and The quantitative considerations in the present work give 2 November 2003, i.e. Ground Level Enhancements us the possibility for research of the latitudinal numbers 65, 66 and 67 (GLE 65, 66 and 67), according dependence of the solar cosmic ray ionization and international CR event classification. For this purpose therefore the latitudinal distribution of the ozone the energy spectra of particles in two different production. Up to now this effect has been a little moments for every proton event are calculated. After investigated. But the differences between the ozone production at middle and polar latitudes is significant. 50 This fact gives new information about the processes of the nature (gradual or impulsive) of the CMEs seems to redistribution of ozone during the solar CR events. exist.

REFERENCES ***************

Velinov P.I.Y., A. Mishev. C. r. Acad. Bulg. Sci. v. 60, MHD modeling of ICMEs Encountering both Earth and 2007, ¹ 5, pp. 493‐500. Mars Heck D. et al., CORSIKA: Monte Carlo Code to Simulate Falkenberg, Thea1; Vennerstrom, Susanne1; Pulkkinen, Extensive Air Showers. Rep. FZKA 6019 Forschungszent. Antti2; Taktakishvili, Aleksandre2; Brain, Dave3; Delory, Karlsruhe, 1997. Gregory3; Mitchell, David3 A.Mishev, P.I.Y.Velinov, C. r. Acad. Bulg. Sci. v. 61, 2008, 1DTU Space, DENMARK; 2Goddard Space Flight Center, ¹ 8, pp. 1047‐1054. UNITED STATES; 3University of California, Berkeley, UNITED STATES *************** Predicting the geo‐effects of major space weather Trend of Photospheric Magnetic Helicity Flux in Active events, such as Coronal Mass Ejection (CMEs), is Regions generating Halo Coronal Mass Ejections complicated by the fact that we have no direct Zuccarello, Francesco1; Zuccarello, Francesca2; Smyrli, measurements of initial CME parameters at the Sun, Aimilia2; Romano, Paolo3; Poedts, Stefaan1 such as speed and propagation direction. We evaluate 1CPA/KULeuven, BELGIUM; 2Catania University, ITALY; two different methods of extracting input parameters 3INAF‐OACT, ITALY for a heliospheric propagation model, using SOHO/LASCO images. One method is estimating by eye Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are very energetic and hand and the other is estimating through an events initiated in the solar atmosphere, resulting in the automated conic method. In order to achieve multipoint expulsion of magnetized plasma clouds that propagate comparison of the model and to be able to assess the into interplanetary space. It has been proposed that longitudinal extent of the Interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs), CMEs can play an important role in shedding magnetic we use both near Earth solar wind measurements and helicity, avoiding its endless accumulation in the corona. particle and field measurements from the Mars Global We therefore investigated the behavior of magnetic Surveyor (MGS) MAG/ER instrument. helicity accumulation in sites where the initiation of We use the ENLIL 3D Magneto‐Hydro‐Dynamic (MHD) CMEs occurred, in order to determine whether and how model, available online through the Community changes in magnetic helicity accumulation are Coordinated Modeling Center at Goddard Space Flight temporally correlated with CME occurrence. After Center, to try and replicate data for the ICMEs. The identifying the active regions (AR) where the CMEs were event list consists of 18 CMEs, primarily events picked initiated by means of a double cross‐check based on the when Earth and Mars are separated by less than ~60 flaring‐eruptive activity and the use of SOHO/EIT degrees in heliocentric longitude. The list includes all difference images, we use MDI magnetograms to major events visible at Mars and Earth where we can calculate magnetic flux evolution magnetic helicity identify the source on the Sun in the period 1999‐2006 injection rate and magnetic helicity injection in 10 active (MGS operation span), with a reasonable degree of regions that gave rise to 12 halo CMEs observed during certainty. Specific parameters of interest are arrival the period February 2000 ‐ June 2003. time, signal amplitude and longitudinal span of the No unique behavior in magnetic helicity injection ICMEs. At Earth the model estimates of velocity, density accompanying halo CME occurrence is found. In fact, in and magnetic field strength are compared to Ace, Wind some cases there is an abrupt change in helicity and Geotail data, while at Mars the modeled solar wind injection timely correlated with the CME event, while in dynamic pressure is compared to a dynamic pressure some others no significant variation is recorded. proxy estimated from magnetic field data from MGS. However, our analysis show that the most significant changes in magnetic flux and magnetic helicity injection *************** are associated with impulsive CMEs rather than gradual CMEs. Moreover, the most significant changes in The Coronal Electron Density Profiles derived from magnetic helicity are observed when X‐class flares or Radio Observations eruptive filaments occur, while the occurrence of flares Magdalenic, Jasmina; Marque, Christophe of class C or M seems not to affect significantly the SIDC, Royal Observatory of Belgium, BELGIUM magnetic helicity accumulation. Finally, this study shows that magnetic helicity accumulation in our sample of Solar radio bursts in the metric range correspond ARs generating halo CMEs has sudden and abrupt dominantly to plasma emission. Since electron plasma changes only in 40 % of the cases examined and that a frequency f is linked to electron density n (f ≈ n ^1/2), correlation between the helicity injection changes and radio bursts can provide an estimation of the coronal electron density. EUV observations show that the

51 corona overlying active regions is not uniform. *************** Therefore, a single density profile is not adequate to explain all types of radio bursts, possibly associated with Automatic Determination of the Conic Coronal Mass different types of coronal structures. Ejection Model Parameters To be able to compare density profiles corresponding to Pulkkinen, Antti1; Oates, Tim2; Taktakishvili, Aleksandre2 different coronal structures of the same active region, 1Catholic University of America, UNITED STATES; 2UMBC, we analyzed two types of radio emission, type II and UNITED STATES type III bursts. The density profiles were obtained using the Nançay Radioheliograph imaging observations and Characterization of the three‐dimensional structure of dynamic radio spectra recorded by radiospectrographs solar transients using incomplete plane of sight data is a of the Astrophysical Institute Potsdam. The difficult problem whose solutions have potential for observations of the plasma dynamics in the low corona societal benefit in terms of space weather applications. were provided by the Extreme‐ultraviolet Imaging In this paper transients are characterized in three Telescope (EIT instrument onboard SOHO). dimensions by means of conic coronal mass ejection The study showed that the type III bursts were mostly (CME) approximation. A novel method for the associated with the coronal structures having automatic determination of cone model parameters significantly larger density gradients than the generally from observed halo CMEs is introduced. The method used coronal density models. On the other hand, the uses both standard image processing techniques to coronal density models correspond rather well with the extract the CME mass from white‐light coronagraph density profiles obtained from the type II bursts. images and a novel inversion routine providing the final cone parameters. A Bootstrap technique is used to *************** provide model parameter distributions. When combined with heliospheric modeling, the cone model The Search for a Trend in Total Solar Irradiance parameter distributions will provide direct means for Observations: new Evidence from a Statistical ensemble predictions of transient propagation in the Approach heliosphere. Dudok de Wit, Thierry1; Vieira, Luis2 1 2 University of Orléans, FRANCE; LPC2E, FRANCE An initial validation of the automatic method is carried by comparison to manually determined cone model The existence of a long‐term trend in the Total Solar parameters. It is shown using 14 halo CME events that Irradiance (TSI) is a topic of considerable societal there is reasonable agreement, especially between the importance, and has also been hotly disputed in the last heliocentric locations of the cones derived with the two few years. Different TSI composites have been built out methods. It is argued that both the heliocentric of the nine observations that have been made since locations and the opening half‐angles of the 1978, and they disagree. Recently, empirical or semi‐ automatically determined cones may be more realistic empirical models have been used to support one or the than those obtained from the manual analysis. other composite. *************** Here, we use a newly developed gap filling technique to investigate this problem from a statistical point of view, New Insights in Disk Signatures of CMEs as revealed by with no model bias. The strong correlation between the Multi‐Wavelength EUV Observations different observations is used to extrapolate the record Robbrecht, Eva from each instrument. This allows us to reconstruct the Royal Observatory of Belgium, BELGIUM missing observations as if each instrument had been continuously operating since 1978, by assuming that the With the limited availability of coronagraph statistical properties of each record with respect to the observations that are needed to monitor CME activity, it others has not changed. Interestingly, these becomes increasingly important to recognize the onset reconstructions readily reveal which records suffer from of a geoeffective CME using disk‐observations alone. instrumental artefacts. This allows us to intercompare Relating CMEs to on‐disk signatures is a less obvious the different TSI records and to show when the task than it sounds. CMEs erupting from outside active observations have started to disagree. This information regions do not always leave a clear trace. Some is crucial for improving present composites and signatures are so subtle that they are only noticeable by obtaining a better estimate of the long‐term trend in the trained eye. In this talk we will discuss our recent the TSI. understanding of the dimming phenomenon that often coincides with CMEs. From multi‐wavelength We compare these reconstructions with a TSI observations of filament eruptions, it is evident that estimation based on the semi‐empirical model of solar these dimmings are much more pronounced in 19.5 nm magnetograms, and evaluate the pertinence of the than in the lower‐temperature line 17.1 nm, as viewed different existing composites. either on the disk or above the limb. We conclude that

52 most of the cooler coronal plasma is not ejected but magnitude and the duration of the depression. The remains gravitationally bound when the loops open up. analysis of relative timing of CR depressions revealed When the open flux reconnects and closes down again, that in the majority of cases the decrease follows the the trapped plasma is initially heated to such high onset in IMF increase. Very high correlation between FD temperatures that it is no longer visible at 17.1 nm. magnitude and IMF fluctuations is indicative of Correspondingly, 17.1 nm images show a dark ribbon or important role of reduced parallel diffusion as a "heat wave" propagating away from the polarity modulation mechanism. Furthermore, the modulation inversion line and coinciding with the brightened 28.4 effect was found to be more pronounced when proxies nm and 19.5 nm post‐eruptive loops and their footpoint of time integrals are used. The differences obtained for areas. Such dark ribbons provide a clear example of the data sorted by type, shock association and presence dimmings that are not caused by a density depletion. of over‐recovery are discussed regarding both FD The propagation of the "heat wave" is driven by the magnitude and time profiles. These results can be used closing‐down, not the opening‐up, of the flux and can to test theoretical models. be observed both off‐limb and on‐disk. *************** *************** Solar Irradiance Variations of an Active Region Tracking CMEs from the Sun to Geospace observed with SWAP and LYRA Bothmer, Volker1; Liu, Ying2; Davies, Jackie3; Bosman, Dammasch, Ingolf1; Yalim, Mehmet Sarp2; Seaton, Eckard4 Daniel1 1University of Goettingen, GERMANY; 2Space Sciences 1Royal Observatory of Belgium, SIDC, BELGIUM; 2K. U. Laboratory/UC Berkeley, UNITED STATES; 3Space Science Leuven, CPA, BELGIUM and Technology Department/Rutherford Appleton 4 Laboratory, UNITED KINGDOM; Institute for ESA's microsatellite PROBA2 was launched in November Astrophysics/University of Goettingen, GERMANY 2009, with two instruments on board which are commanded from the Royal Observatory of Belgium: This presentation will summarise the results from the The imager SWAP and the radiometer LYRA observe NASA STEREO since launch until fall 2010 on the solar radiation in extreme ultraviolet and soft X‐ray. properties and geo‐effectiveness of earthward LYRA delivers solar irradiances with high temporal propagating coronal mass ejections (CMEs) tracked with resolution in four spectral intervals, while SWAP the SECCHI imaging suite. delivers approx. one image per minute of the solar corona. These observations will be used to describe the *************** passing of active region 1087 across the disk, between 06 and 23 July 2010, with respect to short‐term (flare) Cosmic Ray Modulation by Solar Wind Disturbances and long‐term variability. One aim is to separate the Dumbovic, M.; Vrsnak, B.; Calogovic, J.; Karlica, M. SXR and the EUV influences on two of the LYRA Hvar Observatory, Faculty of Geodesy, CROATIA channels with the help of SWAP data (EUV) integrated over the whole disk, and GOES data (SXR). SWAP and LYRA flare intensities observed during this period will be Compressions of interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) compared to the GOES X‐ray flux for the same flares. associated with interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) and corotating interaction regions (CIRs) cause short‐term decreases (so‐called Forbush decreases, FDs) *************** in galactic cosmic ray (CR) flux. The mechanism of this modulation is still a matter of research. In this report we Monitoring ULF Wave Influence on Radiation Belt analyze the influence of different parameters on the Dynamics 1 1 amplitude and the duration of Forbush decreases, using Daglis, Ioannis A. ; Balasis, Georgios ; Papadimitriou, 2 3 1 ground‐based neutron monitor data and in situ solar Constantinos ; Zesta, Eftyhia ; Anastasiadis, Anastasios 1 2 wind data from the Advanced Composition Explorer National Observatory of Athens, GREECE; University of 3 (ACE). Solar wind disturbances were identified as Athens, GREECE; Air Force Research Lab, UNITED increases of solar wind speed, IMF and magnetic field STATES fluctuations and sorted by the type (ICME/CIR) and the association with a shock. Furthermore, FDs were Magnetospheric ULF waves strongly influence radiation treated separately for cases showing the over‐recovery belt dynamics and are therefore of particular relevance phase in CR flux. We analyzed correlations between CR for space weather nowcasting and forecasting efforts. depression amplitudes and solar wind speed, IMF and We have used novel algorithms based on wavelet IMF fluctuations. Time profiles of the FDs and solar wind spectral analysis methods to study multipoint disturbances were also examined. An extensive observations of ULF wave activity by the Cluster and statistical analysis was made regarding the delay of the THEMIS missions and ground‐based magnetometers. depression after the onset of the IMF increase and also Wavelet analysis is becoming a common tool for

53 analyzing localized variations of power within a time HELIO, tracking of Heliospheric Phenomena series. By decomposing a time series into time‐ Aboudarham, Jean1; Bentley, Robert, B.2; Csillaghy, frequency space, one is able to determine both the André3 dominant modes of variability and how those modes 1Observatoire de Paris‐Meudon, FRANCE; 2MSSL, UCL, vary in time. The advantage of analyzing a signal with UNITED KINGDOM; 3FHNW, SWITZERLAND wavelets as the analyzing kernel is that it enables one to study features of the signal locally with a detail matched The HELIO project aims at providing interoperability to their scale. Owing to its unique time‐frequency between data related to the Sun and Heliosphere. One localization, wavelet analysis is especially useful for of the HELIO workpackages, entitled 'Tools for the 4D signals that are non‐stationary, have short‐lived Heliosphere', is dedicated to the possibility of transient components, have features at different scales, automatically detecting heliospheric features, and to or have singularities. Our long‐term aim is to develop connecting them as they evolve or propagate. automatic identification tools that will allow the detection, identification and classification of various The results of this workpackage will be included in a categories of ULF waves according to well‐defined Heliophysics Feature Catalogue. This catalogue will be criteria. used in the workflow together with other metadata catalogues and propagation models allowing *************** Heliospheric features to be tracked from the Sun to the environment of various planets. Multispacecraft Observations of 3 and 8 April 2010 Coronal Mass Ejections HELIO is funded under EC's Seventh Framework 1 1 Mierla, Marilena ; Rodriguez, Luciano ; Berghmans, Programme (FP7) and involves groups from seven 1 2 3 David ; Besliu‐Ionescu, Diana ; Chifu, Iulia ; Dammasch, counties. The project started in mid 2009 and will last 1 4 2 Ingolf ; de Groof, Anik ; Demetrescu, Crisan ; Dobrica, for 3 years. For more information see www.helio‐vo.eu Venera2; Gissot, Samuel1; Hochedez, Jean‐Francois1; 3 1 Inhester, Bernd ; Magdalenic, Jasmina ; Maris, *************** Georgeta2; Nitoiu, Daniela2; Seaton, Daniel1; Srivastava, Nandita5; West, Matt1; Zhukov, Andrei1 Solar Energetic Particles and Magnetic Storms: their 1Royal Observatory of Belgium, BELGIUM; 2Institute of 3 Competing Roles in Radiation Belt Variability Geodynamics of Romanian Academy, ROMANIA; Max‐ 1 2 2 Daglis, Ioannis ; Sandberg, Ingmar ; Balasis, Georgios ; Planck Institute for Solar System Research, GERMANY; 2 3 4 5 Anastasiadis, Anastasios ; Nieminen, Petteri ; Daly, European Space Agency, BELGIUM; Udaipur Solar 3 Eamonn Observatory, INDIA 1 2 National Observatory of Athens, GREECE; NOA/ISARS, GREECE; 3ESA/ESTEC, NETHERLANDS Two halo CMEs were observed by the LASCO/SOHO coronagraph on 3 and 8 April 2010. These events were Radiation belt enhancements have long been associated observed as limb CMEs by STEREO‐A and ‐B spacecraft. with increased geospace activity. Earthward On‐disk, EUV images recorded by SWAP/PROBA2, displacements of radiation belt maxima, in particular, EUVI/STEREO and EIT/SOHO show EIT waves, EUV have been observed during intense geospace magnetic dimmings, as well as post‐eruptive arcades. Both CMEs storms. On the other hand, it has been noticed that not were associated with flares (observed by LYRA/PROBA2) all magnetic storms result in more intense radiation and erupting filaments. Slowly drifting radio continuum belts; actually a large percentage of storms result in in the frequency range of 70‐20 MHz was observed in weaker radiation belts. It has been recently suggested association with 3 April 2010 event. The CMEs were by Selesnick et al. [2010] that a decisive factor of detected in‐situ by ACE and they both produced radiation belt enhancements may be the occurrence of geomagnetic storms when interacting with the Earth solar energetic particle (SEP) events and the injection magnetic field. We apply the reconstruction techniques and trapping of solar energetic protons in the inner described in Mierla et al. 2009 to these events in order magnetosphere. The operation of the Standard to infer their 3D structure, the true speed and the Radiation Environment Monitor (SREM) on several ESA direction of propagation. The travel time to the Earth is spacecraft, which efficiently monitor SEP events, calculated using the speeds derived from the 3D provides an opportunity to investigate the competing reconstruction techniques. Comparison of the role magnetic storms and SEP events in radiation belt calculated travel time with the true arrival time is done variability. in order to improve the reconstruction results. Analysis and comparison of the source regions will be also *************** presented and discussed.

***************

54 Data based Quest for Solar Wind‐Magnetosphere phenomena above South Europe observed from coupling Function tomographic reconstruction. Balikhin, Michael; Billings, Stephen; Boynton, Richard *************** University of Sheffield, UNITED KINGDOM Can we use ELF Ionospheric Plasma Turbulence as a The NARMAX (Nonlinear Autoregressive Moving Precursor of the Strong Earthquakes? Average with eXogenous inputs) modeling based Blecki, Jan1; Parrot, Michel2; Wronowski, Roman1; approach is used to identify the relations for Solar wind Kosciesza, Malgorzata1 Magnetosphere Coupling Functions in order to identify 1Space Research Centre, POLAND; 2LPC2E, FRANCE the one with the best Dst index forecasting abilities. It is argued that the Error Reduction Ratio which is a During 5 years of operation DEMETER French cornerstone concept in the NARMAX system microsatellite registered clear disturbances of the identification methodology is more appropriate for such electromagnetic field and plasma parameters in the nonlinear system as the terrestrial magnetosphere than time of the many crossings of the area around correlation function analysis which has often been used epicenters of the strong (M>6.5) earthquakes. The in the past. It is shown that the identified relationships payload of DEMETER allows to study the waves and also allow to correct results of theoretical derivations of some important plasma parameters (ion composition, coupling functions from the first principles. electron density and temperature, energetic particles) with high temporal resolution. In the present work *************** analysis of the low frequency fluctuations of the magnetic and electric fields for the selected strong TEC Variations and Ionospheric Disturbances over earthquakes (Sichuan, L'Aquila, Haiti and others) will be Europe during the August 2010 Storm Event. given. Special attention will be given to study of the Bergeot, Nicolas; Burston, Robert; Legrand, Juliette; characteristics of the spectra of these variations and Chevalier, Jean‐Marie; Bruyninx, Carine; Defraigne, search of the nonlinear effects. This analysis is possible Pascale; Baire, Quentin; Pottiaux, Eric in the time interval when the waveform has been Royal Observatory of Belgium, BELGIUM transmitted. The mechanism of the energy transmission from the earthquake to the ionosphere is not clear, but A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) impacted the Earth's we can discuss the behavior of the ionospheric plasma magnetic field on August 3rd 2010 around 17:30 UT, and search of the instabilities which could be a source implying a polar geomagnetic storm as well as red and of the electromagnetic field variations. Some attempt of green northern lights observed by sky watchers as far this discussion will be given in the presentation. The south as Germany. In this study, we focus on this search of the characteristics of the spectra and geomagnetic storm and its effect on ionospheric Total multispectra will be given in this presentation. Electron Content (TEC) variations. *************** We used data from 235 GPS stations from the EUREF Permanent Network (EPN) to estimate hourly 1°/1° Vertical Characteristic of Midlatitude E and F ionospheric maps of the Vertical Total Electron Content Ionospheric Drifts. (VTEC) above Europe. Results show a decrease of the Boska, Josef; Kouba, Daniel; Sauli, Petra mean daily VTEC by 2.6 TECu two days after the CME Institute of Atm.Phys. ASCR, CZECH REPUBLIC impact. This maximum decrease occurs the day after the period with the Kp index. However, the next day, New digisonde drifts measurements with DPS 4 the VTEC increases again during the recovery phase of equipment started at Pruhonice observatory in January the storm. Consequently, it takes several days to detect 2004. In standard autodrifts measurements, the velocity the influence of the CME influence on the mean daily of F region drifts is usually determined near the peak of VTEC over Europe. By comparison, we also considered electron concentration profile.From 2005 we started the 2003 Halloween Storm period and 2008 solar measurements of ionospheric drifts in E region of the minimum period and could confirm this observation. ionosphere,by using four fixed frequencies in the height interval 90 ‐ 150 km also.This new experimental Finally, the 30‐.s sampled VTEC at the ionospheric arrangement makes possible to study vertical changes piercing points above Europe show short‐term and profiles of the ionospheric drifts.In our paper we fluctuations occurring 3 to 3.5 hours after the CME deals with winter time significant changes of the drift impact. These variations, with an amplitude of 3 to velocity height profiles in the E region of the ionosphere more than 7 TECu, have an apparent periodicity of 30 (90 ‐ 150 km) during geomagnetic quiet conditions. minutes. These disturbances are observed over More dramatic vertical changes of all drift velocities Scandinavia and the South European region while components in the height interval 90 ‐ 130 km ( with completely absent at the mid‐latitude region. We effects of acoustic gravity waves) was observed during interpret such patterns as auroral ionization geomagnetic storms 14 ‐ 16.12.2006. perturbations over the polar region and equatorial 55 In second part of this paper we report an observed effective information on the key characteristics of the night time changes of the vertical drift velocity profiles interplanetary disturbances. Surface monitors located at in the F region of the ionosphere during quiet and Aragats Space Environmental Center (ASEC) on Mt. disturbed conditions at midlatitude station Pruhonice. Aragats in Armenia at 1000, 2000 and 3200 m altitudes detect charged and neutral components of secondary *************** cosmic rays with different energy thresholds and various angles of incidence. In 2010 we add new particle "Tonokard" Experiment: Sensitivity of Vascular Tone detectors, magnetometers and radio emission Parameters to Meteorological and Geomagnetic detectors. Total number of time series measured Factors exceeds hundreds, covering primary proton energies Gurfinkel, Yu.I.1; Zenchenko, T.A.2; Ozheredov, V.A3; from 4 till >20 GeV. The one‐minute time series of Breus, T.K.3 gamma rays, neutrons, electrons and muons are 1Central Clinical Hospital JSC "Russian Railways", measured with accuracy (relative MSD) 0.12% ‐ 2%. Moscow, RUSSIAN FEDERATION; 2Institute of Theoretical ASEC data is available from two dedicated servers in and Experimental Biophysics of RAS, Pushchino, Moscow United States (http://aragats.am) and Germany region, RUSSIAN FEDERATION; 3Space Research Institute (http://fzk.aragats.am). The Advanced Data Extraction (IKI)RAS, Moscow, RUSSIAN FEDERATION Infrastructure (ADEI http://dside.dyndns.org/adei/wiki) is used for fast data display and download. The aim of the current study is to investigate whether it is possible to distinguish between meteorological and *************** geomagnetic activity influences on the human organism. For this purpose the "Tonokard" experiment UAH‐SWS: The Space Weather Service for Europe has been designed. It is a specifically designed device to developed at UAH perform daily measurements of vascular tone Guerrero, Antonio; Cid, Consuelo; Saiz, Elena; Cerrato, parameters, such as blood pressure (BP), pulse wave Yolanda velocity (PWV) and endothelial function (EF). The University of Alcala, SPAIN experimental set‐up of "Tonokard", including the instrumentation designed, will be described in this The UAH‐Space Weather Service at paper. As a trial study one volunteer has been http://www.spaceweather.es/ has been developed monitored for three years. To analyze the sensitivity of based on the scientific models published recently in the indices (BP, PWV, EF) to geomagnetic and international journals by researchers of the UAH. The meteorological factors two independent approaches service offers a warning of severe geomagnetic were used, one based on traditional methods of disturbances from solar wind data through the UAH‐SW mathematical statistics and the other on the theory of Monitor. It also provides an estimation of the time pattern recognition. Based on the two approaches it remaining for the magnetosphere to recover quiet time was found that PWV and EF are only sensitive to conditions. The service is available free of charge 24 geomagnetic activity, while BP is sensitive to hours a day, 365 days a year, both, on‐line and by e‐mail meteorological conditions. Possible physical links to after subscription by signing up for space weather explain these findings are currently being discussed. alerts. Furthermore, the prospects for a study with a larger number of unbiased volunteers is being looked at. We *************** will present how we intend to proceed with this study. Space Weather Tools Developed in University of Key words: vascular tone parameters, blood pressure, Bradford pulse wave velocity, geomagnetic disturbances, Colak, Tufan; Qahwaji, Rami; Zraqou, Jamal; Ipson, Stan meteorological factors University of Bradford, UNITED KINGDOM

*************** In this work, solar image processing tools such as ASAP, 3DSOLARVIEW, and SOLARSTUDIO that have been Monitoring of the Cosmic Ray Fluxes by Aragats Space developed by Space Weather Research Team (SWRT) in Environmental Center (ASEC) at Start of 24th Solar University of Bradford will be introduced. ASAP is an Activity Cycle established tool used for sunspot region detection/ Chi, Ashot; Chilingarian, Ashot; Reymers, Artur classification and solar flare prediction and latest Yerevan Physics Institute, ARMENIA improvement to this tool will be discussed. 3DSOLARVIEW is a tool for modeling and displaying Particle fluxes as measured at the Earth surface are the several solar features including sunspots, active regions, global geophysical parameters and one of basics of and magnetic field lines using different solar images. Space Weather research and forecasting. Time series of SOLARSTUDIO is a tool that can be used to apply several intensities of high energy particles can provide cost‐ solar imaging algorithms to solar images, such as solar

56 feature tracking, stereoscopic imaging, and video Newcastle. The project aims to establish a network of creating. These tools are planned to be available for 12 GNSS scintillation monitoring stations across Europe public use by the end of 2010 and related demos will be and parts of Africa. The overall aim of the project is to available for public use during the conference. quantify positioning errors over the next solar maximum (2011 ‐ 2012) and to develop forecasting and *************** mitigation techniques that would move towards making GNSS receivers robust to scintillation events. Influence of Volcanic Ash Cloud on Warsaw and Hornsund ionograms? Ionospheric Scintillation varies across different Dziak‐Jankowska, Beata; Mi³odrowska, Maria; Pozoga, geographic locations and at any one location the Mariusz; Rokicki, Andrzej; Tomasik, Lukasz temporal occurrence is unpredictable, but is modulated Space research Centre PAS, POLAND by the 11‐year solar cycle. At high latitudes ionospheric scintillation is driven by auroral precipitation or In April and May 2010 the eruption of the volcano under instability of structures formed on polar cap patches. At Iceland's Eyjafjallajoekull Glacier coused an ash plume high to mid latitudes scintillation may be due to the which spread over the Europe and North Atlantic. We expansion of the polar cap. At southern mid latitudes, analysed data from Warsaw ionosonde from 14th April scintillation is related to the equatorial ionosphere to 23rd April when the ash cloud was present over where the dominant process is the instability of Poland. During this period geomagnetic conditions were structures on the edges of the equatorial anomaly. As quiet but the signal recorded on Warsaw ionograms was the mechanisms are different in each region it is noisy and in some cases strong absorption caused necessary to establish a network over a wide area and almost completely lost of the signal. We compare this extended time period. results with ionograms recorded on Hornsund ionosonde.From 19th May the activity of the volcano Five of the proposed GNSS monitoring stations are increased again but the wind divert to the North and currently operational. The scintillation parameters (S4 the ash cloud was observed over Svalbard during period and σΦ) are affected by multipath making it difficult in from 19th to 21st May. We observed increased some instances, particularly at lower elevations, to absorption on Hornsund ionograms which cannot be distinguish between scintillation events and multipath. explained by other physical phenomenon like passage Each of the scintillation stations will be analysed and of polar cusp, disturbed geomagnetic conditions etc. filters developed and tested so that multipath may The increased absorption up to 20 % we observed also either be removed from the data from each site or on Hornsund riometer in 20th May. made easily and consistently identifiable from scintillation events. *************** *************** GNSS Scintillation: Detection, Forecasting and Mitigation: A new UK based Research Project Analysis of Wave‐Like Oscillations within Parameters Hancock, Craig M.1; Aquino, Marcio1; Forte, Biagio1; of Sporadic E Layer and Neutral Atmosphere Mitchell, Cathryn2; Strangeways, Hal J.3; Benton, Chris2 Koucka Knizova, Petra; Mosna, Z.; Kouba, D.; Boska, J. 1Institute of Engineering for Surveying and Space Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Academy of Sciences of Geodesy, University of Nottingham, UNITED KINGDOM; the Czech Republic, CZECH REPUBLIC 2Department of Electronic and Electrical Engineering, University of Bath, UNITED KINGDOM; 3Electrical The present study concerns mainly variability of the Electronic and Computer Engineering, Newcastle wave‐like activity in the parameters descibing state of University, UNITED KINGDOM plasma in the sporadic E layer and neutral atmosphere. Within the data collected since 2004 we search for Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) such as the common wave‐like oscillations in the ionospheric Global Positioning System (GPS) and the soon to be plasma and neutral atmosphere over a wide period completed European equivalent, Galileo are susceptible range of hours to several days, covering tidal and to many different error sources. Many of these error planetary oscillation domain. By means of the wavelet sources can be modelled to a level that allows precise transform we detect wave occurence, its persistence positioning (<1cm). One shortcoming of these GNSS and coherence of the wave‐like structures. systems that is not currently adequately modelled is ionospheric scintillation. GNSS receivers are not robust *************** to scintillation events which can degrade signal accuracy and in extreme cases lead to loss of lock.

This EPSRC UK research council project is a collaboration between the Universities of Nottingham, Bath and

57 European Space Weather Web Portal: Last and Future accessible through the URL Developments http://www.spenvis.oma.be/. Calders, Stijn1; Pierrard, Viviane2; Núñez Paz, Marlon3; 1 Kruglanski, Michel The use of SPENVIS will be demonstrated with highlights 1 2 STCE / BIRA‐IASB, BELGIUM; BIRA‐IASB, BELGIUM; on the last developments and implemented models. 3UMA, SPAIN *************** The European Space Weather Web Portal (ESWeP) is an integrated website aiming to become the hub of the Project SX5 ‐ Development of a new Tool for European scientific space weather community in order Ionospheric Investigations to facilitate collaborations between the communities Lastovicka, Jan; Boska, Josef; Buresova, Dalia; Kouba, involved in space weather monitoring, modeling and Dan prediction activities. It also includes a section devoted Institute of Atmospheric Physics, ASCR, CZECH REPUBLIC to public outreach. The portal is being initiated by the COST 724 action, further developed in the frame of the SX5 is a project conducted by a consortium of 6 partners follow‐on action COST ES0803, and hosted by the in 2010‐2011 (2 years). It is funded by the European Belgian Institute of Space Aeronomy. It is accessible Union within the 7th Framework Programme and through the URL http://www.spaceweather.eu/. supervised by the GNSS Supervisory Authority GSA. Its main topic is the scientific exploitation of the Galileo The last and forthcoming improvements will be broadband E5 signal. An E5 receiver and a scientific presented, such as the plasmapause location nowcast software application prototype will be developed as and a forecast of well‐connected solar energetic proton well as applications to various fields including event, respectively developed by the Belgian Institute of ionospheric investigations. The Galileo E5 broadband Space Aeronomy and the University of Malaga. The signal features an ultimately low code range noise and plasmapause location nowcast is based on forecast of the lowest possible multi‐path errors compared to all Kp provided by the Swedish Institute of Space Physics. other signals of all other GNSS. Ionospheric The SEP event forecast is based on the analysis of GOES investigations with SX5 will be directed into four areas: X‐ray and proton flux data. (1) Vertical total electron content and its horizontal gradients. (2) Travelling ionospheric disturbances and *************** gravity waves. (3) Ionisation layer coefficients for the NeQuick/IRI. (4) Ionospheric scintillations. More details Space Environment Information System about the project and our participation in will be given Kruglanski, Michel1; De Donder, Erwin1; Messios, in the paper. Neophytos1; Gamby, Emmanual1; Calders, Stijn1; Evans, 2 2 Hugh ; Daly, Eamonn *************** 1BIRA‐IASB / STCE, BELGIUM; 2ESA‐ESTEC, NETHERLANDS New Rms‐based Planetary Geomagnetic Activity Indices The Space Environment Information System (SPENVIS) Menvielle, Michel1; Valette, Jean‐Jacques2; Pau, provides standardized access to most of the recent Mathieu2; Lathuillère, Chantal3 models of the hazardous space environment, through a 1Université Versailles St‐Quentin, CNRS/INSU, LATMOS‐ user‐friendly Web interface. The system allows IPSL, FRANCE; 2CLS, Toulouse, FRANCE; 3LPG, Grenoble, spacecraft engineers to perform a rapid analysis of FRANCE environmental problems related to natural radiation belts, solar energetic particles, cosmic rays, plasmas, 3‐hour planetary geomagnetic indices aa, am, and Kp gases, magnetic fields and micro‐particles. The system are in particular used in modeling the response of the includes several engineering models to assess problems magnetosphere/thermosphere/ionosphere system to such as surface and internal charging, energy the solar wind/magnetosphere coupling. These indices deposition, solar cell damage and single event upset are based upon K indices measured at geomagnetic (SEU) rates. Various reporting and graphical utilities and observatories. K‐indices are proxies of the energy extensive help facilities are included to allow engineers related to the geomagnetic activity, as predicted from with relatively little familiarity to produce reliable semi‐quantitative arguments (Menvielle, Ann. results. SPENVIS also contains an active, integrated Géophys., 35, 189, 1979). The K‐derived planetary version of the ECSS Space Environment Standard and geomagnetic indices therefore monitor the evolution access to in‐flight data on the space environment. with time of this energy, and provide characterization of the overall energy status of the magnetosphere. SPENVIS is an ESA operational software developed and maintained at Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy. It is The 3‐hour granularity of K‐derived planetary indices is a strong limitation for precise modeling of the 58 magnetosphere/thermosphere/ionosphere system. We Response of the high Latitude Ionosphere to Magnetic therefore introduce new indices based on another Disturbance on 2 May 2010 proxy of the magnetic energy, namely the root mean Pozoga, Mariusz; Dziak‐Jankowska, Beata; square (rms) of the irregular variations in the magnetic Mi³odrowska, Maria; Rokicki, Andrzej; Tomasik, Lukasz horizontal components. Space Research Centre PAS, POLAND

Using such proxy does not put constraints on the length On 2nd May 2010 occurred moderate magnetic of the time interval over which the indices are derived. disturbances. We have simultaneous observations taken Local rms indices can be computed at each observatory, from ionosonde, GPS scintillation monitoring station and rms planetary indices derived following algorithms and riometer located on Polish Polar Station Hornsund similar to those used for am, or aa planetary (77N 15E). We present analysis of ionograms, vertical geomagnetic indices derivation. rms‐derived planetary drifts, TEC, intensity of scintillation and ionospheric geomagnetic indices based on different time intervals absorption. are presented, and their statistical relation with K‐ During this magnetic disturbances we observed derived planetary indices is discussed. The contribution increased incidence of spread F as well as presence of of such indices is illustrated by means of both selected structures moving with vertical speed of 200m/s. This events and statistical studies. simultaneous observations during moderate ionospheric disturbances at high latitude shows that *************** data recorded on the Hornsund ionosonde, riometer and GPS will give valuable results during upcoming solar Dual‐model for predicting Solar Energetic Proton maximum. Events Núñez, Marlon *************** Universidad de Malaga, SPAIN SWEN Newsletter ‐‐ Customer Satisfaction Survey 1 2 The current version of the UMA SEP Forecaster is based Rodmann, Jens ; Hilgers, Alain 1 2 on a dual‐model approach for predicting well‐ and ESA, NETHERLANDS; ESA/ESTEC, NETHERLANDS poorly‐connected SEP events (E > 10 MeV) in real‐time. The first model tries to identify precursors of well‐ Established in 1997, the SWEN (Space Weather Euro connected events, by empirically estimating the News) is already in its 14th year. In order to ensure that magnetic connectivity from a flaring region to the near‐ the newsletter continues to be a valuable and useful Earth, and identifying a great flare temporally sources of information on all space‐weather matters, associated to the phenomenon. The second model tries we will conduct a customer satisfaction survey. to identify precursors of poorly‐connected events, by Participants of the European Space Weather Week will analyzing whether the observed differential proton flux have the chance to fill in a form containing various behaviour is similar to the that during the beginning questions on the general satisfaction with the phase of historic poorly‐connected SEP events of solar newsletter, its usefulness, and proposal to change the cycles 22 and 23, and therefore, deducing similar appearance. Comments on how to improve the SWEN consequences. An additional module applies a high‐ can be provided as well. level analysis for filtering out non‐consistent forecasts. SEP forecasts are issued every 5 minutes after analyzing *************** soft X‐ray, differential and integral proton fluxes from GOES satellites, as well as SWPC solar events. The Autoscala Output for Ionospheric Station Hornsund current version of the UMA SEP Forecaster has a Tomasik, Lukasz1; Mi³odrowska, Maria1; Dziak‐ probability of detection of 81.33% of all NOAA SEP Jankowska, Beata1; Pezzopane, Michael2; Rokicki, events (E > 10 MeV) of solar cycles 22 and 23, a false Andrzej1 alarm rate of 33.82%, and an average warning time of 1Space Research Centre PAS, POLAND; 2Istituto 5:19 hours. In the case of well‐connected events, the Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, ITALY forecaster identifies in real‐time the associated flare and the active region with which the Earth is Autoscala is a software to automatically scale magnetically connected. ionospheric characteristics from an ionogram. Autoscala was applied to ionospheric station Warsaw, *************** proved that ionosondes produced by Space Research Centre PAS and Autoscala software developed by Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Rome, Italy are complete solution for real time ionosphere monitoring. This work shows different examples of processing performed on high latitude ionograms recorded by

59 Hornbsund Ionosonde, and reliability of Autoscala of technological systems. Effects of magnetic storms output. may at times make it necessary to perform corrections on geophysical prospecting, in drill processes of wells, in *************** induction effects in pipelines and power grids, as well as in navigation and communications. Therefore local Investigation of the Dynamics Changes of the companies and institutes are interested in the near‐ Coordinates Permanent GPS‐Stations to predict the Earth space weather and conditions in the regional Ionospheric Effects electromagnetic environment. Yankiv‐Vitkovska, Liubov; Savchuk, Stepan Institute of Geodesy, National University "Lviv The VMO will play a key role as the base for space Polytechnic", UKRAINE weather services for the Yamal region. Polar research is performed in IZMIRAN and AARI, and both Institutes It is a very important to use information obtained have agreed to install the VMO on the request from the during the monitoring of GPS station coordinates to Yamal region. This initiative is being supported by local experimental verification of quantitative theory related authorities; 5 magnetometers are now in testing period to the many phenomena that deal with satellite method and the next 3 magnetometers will be installed in the of the ground coordinates determination. We suggest near future. In conjunction with other sources of space use macro‐modelling approach to process the times data which are available via the Internet our VMO might series of monitored coordinates. Macro‐modelling also be used for other usages to solve application tasks method introduces the increases of the results including geophysical prospecting. efficiency. It also helps to predict target values, and make it possible to compare the results of calculations Besides the harsh climate conditions all field works are with experimental results. This method is good enough in good progress, samples of data are in processing, and to determine the effect of ionosphere on the accuracy the data server is under development. We consider of GPS‐coordinates of stations. VMO as the collection of interoperating data archives and software tools, which utilize the Internet as the *************** scientific research environment where scientific data can be easily accessed and analyzed. Previous experience in conducting the work on the Yamal Virtual magnetic observatory in auroral zone on Yamal peninsula is used in the current project. The magnetic peninsula as the base for local space weather service. data base from previous years collected on Yamal is Zaitsev, Alexander; Zaitsev, Alexander; Petrov, Valery; available on the server Odintsov, Vladimir; Osin, Andrey (http://www.cosmos.ru/magbase). The main IZMIRAN, RUSSIAN FEDERATION instruments to process and to analyze the data based on the MatLab package is available on the server Development of virtual observatories (VO) in recent (http://matlab.izmiran.ru/magdata/). Now we are years is driven by a few key factors: working towards building a friendly interface package for end‐users who want to know of space weather 1. rapid growth in the amount of data, conditions in the Yamal region. 2. the emergence of new information technologies, and 3. demands from end‐users who want to have real‐time *************** information about environmental conditions. The Yamal peninsula is located in the Russian Arctic and Web‐Design of Operational Mapping of the includes the auroral zone so it is a good place to Ionospheric W Index Maps based on EGNOS‐TEC Maps observe high latitude phenomena. On the other hand of total Electron Content the Yamal peninsula is a key natural resource region in Stanislawska, Iwona1; Gulyaeva, Tamara L.2; Tomasik, Russia, and the main source of gas and oil. Lukasz1; Poustovalova2, Ljubov V.2; Swiatek, Anna1 1Space Research Centre PAS, POLAND; 2IZMIRAN, A network of magnetometers in the vicinity of the 142190 Troitsk, Moscow Region, RUSSIAN FEDERATION Yamal peninsula forms the main data source for the Virtual Magnetic Observatory (VMO). In practice the The European Geostationary Navigation Overlay VMO will include the existing and proposed network of Service, EGNOS, provides online the regional maps of magnetometers. Due to intensive economical the vertical total electron content in timely, continuous developments, a modern communications regime. An increased knowledge of effects imposed by infrastructure is present on Yamal which gives us the the ionosphere on operational radio systems could be possibility to support real‐time data collection earned by the new service providing online estimate of platforms. the degree of TEC perturbation at each grid point of the map expressed by the ionospheric W index. The On the Yamal peninsula space weather effects are one stratification of the ionosphere perturbations is of the external causes which can lead to the disruption 60 introduced with W index equal to 1 or ‐1 for the quiet points to distant ARs (observable as dimming at the foot state, 2 or ‐2 for the moderate disturbance, 3 or ‐3 for points).We reproduce the large scale interactions during the moderate ionospheric storm, and 4 or ‐4 for intense this event using three‐dimensional magneto‐ ionospheric storm, with the sign "+" for TEC hydrodynamic (MHD) simulations. We superimpose a enhancement or '‐' for TEC depletion (Gulyaeva and magnetic source region that resembles the SOHO MDI Stanislawska, 2008). We have applied W indexing to the images on a basic wind model. By emerging new flux at EGNOS‐TEC map output for producing online the hourly the centre of this region we initiate a Coronal Mass ionosphere‐plasmasphere W index maps. The regional Ejection (CME). We monitor the evolution of this CME distribution of W index is produced at 66 grid points of a and study its interaction with the source region. map (latitudes 35N to 60N in step of 5 deg., longitude ‐ 10E to 40E in step of 5 deg.). The W index maps *************** characterizing quiet or stormy state of the ionosphere‐ plasmasphere plasma are provided online at Study on Solar Sources and their Effects on Ionosphere http://www.cbk.waw.pl/ and archived for comparison and Geomagnetic Field with W index maps derived from the global ionospheric Perrone, Loredana1; Meloni, Antonio2; Damasso, Mario3; maps, GIM. Galliani, Marco4; Diego, Paolo5; Zolesi, Bruno6 1Istituto Nazionale, ITALY; 21. Geomagnetism, Aeronomy *************** and Environmental Geophysics ‐ Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, ITALY; 3Astronomical Comparison of foF2 Values extracted from DIAS Maps Observatory of the Autonomous Region of the Aosta and Ionosonde Measurements at Nicosia during Low Valley, ITALY; 4Istituto Nazionale di Astrofisica, ITALY; Solar Activity 5Dipartimento di Fisica, Università degli Studi di Roma Haralambous, Haris1; Economou, Lefteris2; Vryonides, Tre, ITALY; 6Geomagnetism, Aeronomy and Photos1 Environmental Geophysics ‐ Istituto Nazionale di 1Frederick University, CYPRUS; 2Intercollege, CYPRUS Geofisica e Vulcanologia, ITALY

This paper presents a comparison between values of the We investigated the characteristics of the events critical frequency of the F2‐layer (foF2) derived from occurred on October/November 2003 and May2005, digital ionosonde measurements at the low‐middle the properties of the correlated observations of latitude operating European station in Nicosia, Cyprus ionospheric absorption, of the critical frequency of the (coordinates: 35o N, 33o E geographic) and the DIAS ionospheric F2 layer and of geomagnetic activity at the system. DIAS (European Digital Upper Atmosphere ground level. Solar events are studied using the Server) is a service based on a pan‐European digital data characteristics of CME and the temporal evolution of collection on the state of the upper atmosphere, which solar energetic particles in different energy ranges. offers real‐time information and historical data We have tried to determine: possible clues that could collections provided by most operating ionospheric allow a forecast evaluation of the effects produced at stations in Europe. Hourly values of foF2 were obtained the Earth's orbit by the interplanetary perturbations using manually scaled data over Nicosia during the solar and as these effects are observed on the ionosphere minimum period from January to December 2009. and on the geomagnetic field, using some Antarctic Diurnal and seasonal variations of foF2 are examined observations. and comparisons of the observations are made with foF2 values extracted from DIAS generated foF2 maps. ***************

*************** Coerenza: a Software Tool for computing the Maximum Coherence Times of the Ionosphere The 25 July 2004 Event: Observational and Numerical Pietrella, Marco; Zuccheretti, Enrico Study Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, ITALY Soenen, Alexander1; Jacobs, Carla1; Poedts, Stefaan1; 2 2 Torok, Tibor ; van Driel ‐ Gesztely, Lidia Power‐height (PH) observations of the radio echo 1 2 K.U. Leuven, BELGIUM; LESIA, Observatoire de Paris, reflected from the ionosphere were performed every 15 FRANCE min at a frequency of 3 MHz at the Rome ionospheric observatory, during the period 3‐22 January 2008. This We study the 25 July 2004 event. By analyzing SOHO EIT work describes a computer software program images we establish a basic understanding of the large‐ (Coerenza) that is able to calculate the maximum scale interaction going on during this event. Magnetic coherence times of the ionosphere from PH data. Some reconnection between the expanding CME and the examples of the use of the output data obtained by Southern hemispheric active regions (AR) will connect Coerenza will be shown and discussed. the leading polarities of the two ARs, lead to brightening in the ARs and transport CME field line foot ***************

61 Regression Modelling of Space Weather defined by very empirical means, without a systematic Parnowski, Aleksei comparison of their performance. Space Research Institute NASU & NSAU, UKRAINE Using 17 years of mean densities inferred from We propose a new approach to the problem of real‐ observed orbit perturbations of the French STELLA time space weather modelling using readily available satellite and a large selection of solar activity proxies, data from ACE and a number of ground stations. It is we provide a quantitative assessment of the based on the regression modelling method [1‐3], which performance of each proxy. We do this on different combines the benefits of empirical and statistical time scales as the performance of the proxies is found approaches. It is capable of forecasting Dst, ap and Kp to be quite different for short (on the order of days to indices 3 hours ahead with high accuracy for different weeks) and long (months to years) time scales. This types of the solar wind. It can be also extended to study establishes which solar inputs are most forecast solar activity 1‐2 days ahead. The typical appropriate at each time scale and provides guidance elapsed time per forecast is a few seconds on an on the choice of a better proxy or combination of average PC. The proposed system can also be used for proxies for operational density models. In particular, we investigation of physical phenomena related to show that a scale‐dependent combination of proxies is interactions between the solar wind and the required in order to properly model the impact of solar magnetosphere, in particular uncovering new irradiance. This first part of the study focuses only on geoeffective parameters. the solar irradiance proxies; the complete analysis of selected solar irradiance proxies together with the 1. Parnowski A.S. Regression modeling method of space available geomagnetic activity proxies will be performed weather prediction // Astrophysics & Space Science. ‐ in the future. 2009. ‐ V. 323,1 5 P. 169‐180. doi:10.1007/s10509‐009‐ 0060‐4 [arXiv:0906.3271] *************** 2. Parnovskiy A.S. Regression Modeling and its Application to the Problem of Prediction of Space Hyperbolic Modeling of Historical Geomagnetic Weather // Journal of Automation and Information Superstorms Recovery Phase 1 Sciences. ‐ 2009. ‐ V. 41, 5. ‐ P. 61‐69. Aguado, Jesus; Cerrato, Yolanda; Saiz, Elena; Cid, doi:10.1615/JAutomatInfScien.v41.i5.70 Consuelo 3. Parnowski A.S. Statistically predicting Dst without University of Alcala, SPAIN satellite data // Earth, Planets and Space. ‐ 2009. ‐ V. 61, 1 5. ‐ P. 621‐624. After a geomagnetic storm the magnetosphere takes some time to recover to its quiet state. The largest *************** geomagnetic storm happened on 2 September 1859, when a variation on the geomagnetic horizontal Determining the Most Appropriate Solar Inputs for use component, H, of 1600 ±10 nT was registered at Colaba in Upper Atmosphere Density Models Observatory. The quiet time value of H at Colaba was Bruinsma, Sean1; Dudok de Wit, Thierry2 registered again about two hours later. However, for 1CNES, FRANCE; 2CNRS/LPC2E, FRANCE other weaker storms with H variations on the order of 100 nT it takes more than 1 day in reaching quiet time Atmospheric drag, which is the least accurately again. These observations are enough to state that the modeled force for satellites in low Earth orbit, is today time that magnetosphere takes to reach quiet time estimated by means of thermosphere models. A key after a disturbance depends strongly on the severity of input of such models is the solar spectral irradiance in the disturbance. the UV/EUV range, which is essential to characterize the The recently published hyperbolic model (Aguado et al., amount of solar energy the upper atmosphere receives. 2010) for the recovery phase has been applied in this Variations in the energy received cause variations in work for the historical largest storms where data were density, the largest of which are related to the available, obtaining the recovery time of these events as approximately 11‐year solar cycle and the 27‐day solar an output of the model. The analysis of these so severe rotation. An upper atmosphere model requires a events, let to show that the recovery time is not a linear representative, accurate and uninterrupted function of Dst peak value, butan exponential law, measurement or proxy measurement of the solar which can be approached to a linear relationship for UV/EUV emissions. In fact, F10.7 is the only observation storms with Dst peak value between ‐400 nT and ‐100 available that meets the listed criteria, but several other nT, in agreement with the work of Aguado et al. (2010). proxies for solar activity are tested in this study too. Finding more appropriate solar inputs has become *************** crucial to specify the effect of air drag on satellites and on debris. In most cases, such solar inputs have been

62 Improved Cosmic Ray (CR) Ionization Model for the the direct ionization by CR primaries as well as Atmosphere. Determination of Energy Intervals for CR CORSIKA/FLUKA programme system Monte‐Carlo Penetration simulations with account of hadron interactions. Velinov, Peter; Mateev, Lachezar Space and Solar‐Terrestrial Research Institute, Our improved ionization rate model is important for BULGARIA investigation of the different space weather effects. The cosmic rays and XUV radiations determine to a great The effects of galactic and solar cosmic rays (CR) in the extent the chemistry and electrical parameters in the middle atmosphere are considered in this work. We middle and upper atmosphere, where are situated take into account the CR modulation by solar wind and strato‐mesosphere and thermosphere. They create the anomalous CR component also. In fact, CRs ozonosphere and influence actively the stratosphere determine the electric conductivity in the middle ozone O3 processes. But the ozonosphere controls the atmosphere and influence the electric processes in it in meteorological solar constant and the thermal regime this way. CR introduce solar variability in the terrestrial and dynamics of the lower atmosphere, i.e. the weather atmosphere and ozonosphere. A new analytical and climate processes. CR influence dominates during approach for CR ionization by protons and nuclei with the night and sunrise‐sunset periods, because galactic charge Z in the lower ionosphere and the middle CR are always bombarding the Earth atmosphere. The atmosphere is developed in this paper. For this purpose, CR flux varies during the solar cycle in an opposite face the ionization losses (dE/dh) for the energetic charged to that of sunspots. This hypothesis of the solar‐ particles according to the Bohr‐Bethe‐Bloch formula are terrestrial relationships shows the way to a non‐ approximated in three different energy intervals. More contradictory solution of the key problems of the solar‐ accurate expressions for CR energy decrease E(h) and terrestrial physics. electron production rate profiles q(h) are derived. q(h) is determined by the solution of a 3D integral with The structure of the proposed model allows its account of geomagnetic cut‐off rigidity. decomposition in several submodels. In this case we take into account the physical meaning of the The integrand in q(h) gives the possibility for application undependent variables subintervals. The ionization of adequate numerical methods ‐ in this case Gauss losses function is calculated taking into account the quadrature and Romberg extrapolation, for the solution energetic particles charge decrease interval. The energy of the mathematical problem. Computations for CR intervals investigation takes place according to the goal ionization in the middle atmosphere are made. The of the user of the model with respect to accuracy and contributions of the different approximation energy interval types. intervals are presented. In this way the process of interaction of CR particles with the upper and middle REFERENCES atmosphere are described much more realistically. The full CR composition is taken into account. The Dorman, L. Cosmic Rays in the Earth's atmosphere and computations are made for different geomagnetic cut‐ underground. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, off rigidities R in the altitude interval 35‐120 km. The 2004. COSPAR International Reference Atmosphere CIRA'86 is Velinov, P.I.Y., Dorman, L., Nestorov, G. Cosmic ray applied in the computer program for the neutral air influence on the ionosphere and on radiowave density and scale height values. The proposed improved propagation. Sofia, BAS Publ. House, 1974. CR ionization model will contribute to the quantitative Press, W.H., Flannery, B.P., Teukolsky, S.A., Vetterling, understanding of solar‐atmosphere relationships. W.T. Numerical Recipes in C++ ‐ The Art of Scientific Computing. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, The interval ionization rate estimation includes the 2002. electron production rate of the charge decrease interval Ruder, H., Velinov, P.I.Y., Mateev, L.N. Compt. rend. and of both intermediate intervals which couple the Acad. bulg. Sci. 59 (7), 717‐722, 2006. main three energy intervals of the ionization losses Velinov, P.I.Y., Mateev, L.N. J. Atmosph. Sol.‐Terr. Phys. function in the improved CR interaction model. These 70, 574‐582, 2008. investigations are based on particle ionization theory Velinov, P.I.Y., Ruder, H., Mateev, L.N. Compt. rend. developed by Bohr, Bethe and Bloch, on the base of Acad. bulg. Sci. 59 (7), 723‐730, 2006. quantum mechanics. Moreover, for the altitude above Velinov P.I.Y., Mateev, L.N. Adv. Space Res., 42, 1586 ‐ 50 km, one can further neglect energy changes of the 1592, 2008. high energetic particles, thus reducing the cosmic ray *************** induced ionization (CRII) computation to an analytical thin target model. In the altitude range from 25‐30 to 50 km, an intermediate target model needs to be used, that accounts also for the particle's deceleration due to ionization losses. The analytical and numerical full target model includes an analytical approximation of 63 Analysis of the Recent Space Weather Events using a Modelling the March 1,1979 Proton Event observed by Suite of Models and Observations three Spacecraft: Relevance of the Observer's Zheng, Yihua1; Pulkkinen, Antti2; Taktakishvili, Longitudinal Position Aleksandre3; Hesse, Michael1; Kuznetsova, Masha1; Rodríguez‐Gasén, Rosa1; Aran, Angels2; Jacobs, Carla3; Rastaetter, Lutz1 Sanahuja, Blai1; Poedts, Setfaan3 1NASA/GSFC, UNITED STATES; 2CUA ‐ NASA/GSFC, 1Universitat de Barcelona, SPAIN; 2ESA‐ESTEC, UNITED STATES; 3UMBC‐NASA/GSFC, UNITED STATES NETHERLANDS; 3CPA‐ KU Leuven, BELGIUM

The full chain of physical processes in the Sun‐Earth We present a numerical simulation of the proton event system is extremely complex. In this presentation, we observed on March 1, 1979 by Helios‐1, Helios‐2 and illustrate how we can use a suite of models, residing at IMP‐8/ISEE‐3 spacecraft. Of particular interest in this CCMC (Community Coordinated Modeling Center), gradual solar energetic particle (SEP) event is the spatial along with available observations, to understand the configuration of these spacecraft: they are located at initiation, evolution and interaction of solar similar radial distances from the Sun (from 0.93 to 0.99 disturbances and their consequences for the near‐Earth AU) but showing a significant spread in longitude with region/other planets. In addition, we will show how respect to the site of the associated solar source (from some of the research grade models, if running in an E58 to W08). Such an interplanetary scenario gives us operational mode, can help address space weather an opportunity to test the capabilities of a new Shock‐ needs by providing forecasting/nowcasting capabilities and‐Particle model (developed within the frame of the of significant space weather events. We will focus on Solar Energetic Particle Environment Modelling (SEPEM) two events that occurred in the year of 2010: the 3‐6 project (ESA)) with the aim to take into consideration April event that potentially caused the failure of the the contribution of the shock‐accelerated particle Galaxy 15 spacecraft, and the 1‐5 August event that population in space weather‐oriented SEP prediction received broad media attention worldwide. The main models. We simulate the shock propagation starting models that we are going to use include the close to the Sun and fit both the solar wind background WSA+ENLIL+Cone model covering the Sun to 1 AU of and the shock arrival time and some of the plasma interplanetary space, SWMF (Space Weather Modeling jumps observed at each spacecraft. The model also Framework) for the Earth's bowshock and allows the reproduction of the proton flux profiles in the magnetosphere, RBE for assessing the near‐Earth upstream region of each measured SEP event, for radiation environment and auroral models for different energy channels between 1.3 MeV and 87 characterizing particle precipitation at the ionosphere. MeV protons. We quantify the efficiency of the shock at injecting particles in its way toward each observer and *************** discuss these results regarding the angular separation of the spacecraft. We also discuss the simulated scenario A Numerical Study of the Pre‐Eruptive Coronal in terms of the derived particle transport conditions. Magnetic Field Evolution Jacobs, Carla; Poedts, Stefaan *************** Centre for plasma‐astrophysics, BELGIUM Pressure changes in the Winter Lower Atmosphere and The solar magnetic field plays indisputable a crucial role Solar/Geomagnetic Activity. 1 1 1 in the existence of solar eruptive events. The general Bochnicek, Josef ; Davidkovova, Hana ; Hejda, Pavel ; 2 consensus is that the energy needed to drive the Huth, Radan 1 2 eruption is provided through the magnetic field. The Institute of Geophysics, CZECH REPUBLIC; Institute of strength and morphology of the solar magnetic field is Atmospheric Physics, CZECH REPUBLIC expected to have a determining effect on the CME properties, like size and speed. Large scale eruptions The paper investigates the association between high often disturb regions on the solar surface remotely from long‐lasting solar /geomagnetic activity and pressure the eruption's source region, pointing to the importance distribution changes in the winter lower atmosphere. of the large scale coronal field. The analysis maps Northern Hemisphere winter periods In this numerical study we investigate the evolution of a (December ‐ March) in 1951‐2003. Solar/geomagnetic magnetic structure when driven by different boundary activity is characterized by 30 day mean of R number/ motions, or when immersed into a different ambient by 30 day mean of daily sum Kp index respectively. magnetic field. The aim of this study is to get a better Lower atmosphere pressure distributions are described insight in the trigger and onset of CMEs. The simulations by 30 day mean anomalies in geopotential height are carried out in the framework of ideal MHD, where throughout the vertical profile (20 hPa ‐ 850 hPa). Data the MHD equations are solved on a three dimensional are taken from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. The evaluations spherical grid. We will present the preliminary results of of 30 day mean values of solar/geomagnetic activity and this study. pressure anomalies were made with a five day step *************** through the whole winter period. The composite maps, representing difference between high (R≥90) Kp≤17) 64 geomagneticKp≥19) and low (and low (R≤70) solar Advanced Thermosphere Modelling for Orbit activity and high ( activity, show significant pressure Prediction (ATMOP) decreases in the stratospheric polar region and Menvielle, Michel1; Sánchez‐Ortiz, Noelia2; Aylward, appearance of a positive phase of the North Atlantic Alan3; Bruinsma, Sean4; Jackson, David5; Lathuillère, Oscillation in the troposphere in early winter (December Chantal6; Sladek, Oto7; Valette, Jean Jacques8; Dudok de ‐ January). The phase is more closely associated with Wit, Thierry9; Watermann, Jurgen9; Bushell, Andrew5 geomagnetic than solar activity. In late winter (February 1LATMOS, CNRS/IPSL, FRANCE; 2DEIMOS Space, SPAIN; ‐ March) significant pressure decreases appear in the 3University College London, UCL, UNITED KINGDOM; troposphere only. This tendency applies specifically to 4Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales, CNES, FRANCE; the North Atlantic and northeast Pacific area. Statistical 5Met Office, UNITED KINGDOM; 6Laboratoire de significance was evaluated using the Monte Carlo Planétologie de Grenoble, UJF‐ CNRS, FRANCE; 7Kybertec method. S.R.O, CZECH REPUBLIC; 8Collecte Localisation Satellites, CLS, FRANCE; 9LPC2E, CNRS and University of Orléans, *************** FRANCE

Storm‐Time Changes of Ionospheric TEC during The "Advanced Thermosphere Model for Orbit Moderate Geomagnetic Storm at Minimum Solar Prediction (ATMOP)" research project aims at building a Activity new thermosphere model with the potential to spawn Krankowski, Andrzej1; Shagimuratov, Irk2; an operational version. It will enable precise air drag Zakharenkova, Irina2; Krypiak‐Gregorczyk, Anna1; computation, which is mandatory for improved survey Sieradzki, Rafal1 and precise tracking of objects in Low Earth Orbit and 1University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn, POLAND; the initiation of appropriate measures to minimise risks 2WD IZMIRAN, RUSSIAN FEDERATION to satellites and ground assets. With thousands of objects orbiting the Earth and the In this report we present an analysis of the ionospheric majority of them in LEO, survey and tracking of the response to moderate (Dst<70 nT), 11 October 2008, larger specimens among these objects becomes an geomagnetic storm. TEC maps over European region indispensable task for space agencies and satellite were created on the base of GPS observations provided operators. Orbit determination methods are used to by IGS/EPN. predict the trajectory of the objects hours to days Strong short‐term positive effect was detected near ahead, and the estimated orbits are updated each time noon of 11 October 2008. The TEC enhancement an object is tracked. For the sake of operations, it is exceeded 100% on latitudes of 65‐35N and was obvious that an accurate orbit prediction is necessary to decreased to lower latitudes. The positive effect was locate an object in time and space in order not to loose associated with large scale traveling disturbance. During connection. To minimise the risks coming from space storm there was observed the increase and objects, accurate knowledge of the orbits of all objects modification of horizontal gradients structure and in space that can pose a risk on space (due to possible ionospheric trough had moved to equator, until 57‐58 collisions) or ground assets (due to re‐entry objects) is geomagnetic latitudes. needed. This requires an accurate thermosphere model. The thermosphere can vary rapidly and significantly in response to solar and geomagnetic activity (space The electron density profiles, retrieved from the weather), i.e., accurate orbit prediction requires Formosat‐3/COSMIC radio occultation measurements accurate space‐time nowcast and forecast of the and also measurements from European ionospheric thermosphere. Despite the presence in Europe of one of sounding stations (DIAS), were analyzed within the case‐ the three groups that have the capability to develop and study to estimate the altitudinal modification of the maintain an operational semi‐empirical thermosphere ionosphere. The considerable enhancement of the peak model (CNES/CNRS, the other two are in the US), and of electron density was observed in European region one of the world's leading teams in the field of physical during 11‐15 UT, it reached the factor of 2.8 in modelling of the atmosphere (UCL), Europe has comparison with quiet conditions. The height of the currently neither a near‐real‐time thermosphere ionospheric F2 layer was risen by 60 km. For graphical prediction model nor operational services to provide demonstration of the observed ionospheric effects regular thermosphere nowcast and forecast. global electron density maps were calculated on the The ATMOP project is designed to fill this gap through: base of globally distributed COSMIC RO profiles. * Defining and assessing new proxies to describe the Electron density maps for different altitude slices were external forcing of the thermosphere; analyzed. This positive effect was revealed distinctly in * Developing an advanced semi‐empirical Drag RO electron density profiles and products based on Temperature Model (DTM) that meets the these data ‐ ionospheric electron content and global requirements for operational orbit computations; maps of electron density. * Improving physical modelling of the thermosphere to assist the development of the advanced DTM and of a *************** global physical model with data assimilation capabilities, 65 which may ultimately become the successor to semi‐ Approximation to Galactic Cosmic Ray Spectrum during empirical models; 11‐year Solar Cycle * Developing schemes for near‐real‐time assimilation of Velinov, Peter; Buchvarova, Marusja; Draganov, Dimitar thermospheric and ionospheric data into an advanced Space and Solar‐Terrestrial Research Institute, predictive DTM and into the physical Coupled Middle BULGARIA Atmosphere‐Thermosphere (CMAT2) model. The updated semi‐empirical DTM that will be An analytical model which generalizes the differential constructed in the framework of the ATMOP project will galactic cosmic ray spectrum in the heliosphere is be based upon the most comprehensive database proposed. The model parameterizes the spectrum at available to researchers. It will in particular include different physical conditions, including the most densities inferred from accelerometers onboard CHAMP important effects controlling the cosmic ray intensity and GRACE, which supplied high quality thermospheric like diffusion ‐ convection and energy losses. density data over almost one solar cycle, including years Force‐Field (FF) formalism is a good approximation for of high geomagnetic activity (2003) and exceptional low galactic cosmic rays in the inner heliosphere, but its solar activity (2008 ‐2010). accuracy decreases towards the outer heliosphere. On Survey and tracking of LEO objects is a task that involves the other hand, convection‐diffusion approximation more than geodetic and engineering tools, it involves improves with radial distance. The reason for the solar and space science and aeronomy. The first and complementary behavior of these two approximations almost immediate external forcing of the thermosphere is that energy losses are relatively important in the results from the direct interaction between EUV inner heliosphere, but not in the outer heliosphere. By a radiation and the neutral atmosphere: it predominantly suitable choice of parameters the proposed model turns drives the medium and long‐term evolution of the into two approximations: one close to "force ‐ field" thermosphere, (time scales of days to years). The model (describing the energy losses of cosmic ray in the second forcing process results from the solar wind inner heliosphere) and "convection‐diffusion" equation impact on the magnetosphere and its coupling to the (giving the reduction of cosmic ray intensity in the outer ionosphere and the complex interaction between the heliosphere). neutral and ionized components of the Earth The modulated galactic cosmic ray differential spectra atmosphere: it mostly drives short‐term changes in are compared with force‐field approximation to the response to rapid variations in the solar wind one‐dimensional transport equation and with solutions conditions, and the associated geomagnetic activity. of two‐dimensional cosmic ray transport equation. The latter forcing process can be described in terms of Fitted parameters from the model equations are related energy deposition in the auroral zone and subsequent to three 11‐year solar cycles: 20, 22 and 23 through heat transport to mid and low latitudes. Because of the IMAX92 [1], CAPRICE94 [2], AMS98 [3, 4] and BESS [5, 6] short time lag between geomagnetic forcing and the experimental spectra for protons and alpha particles. thermosphere response only rapid thermosphere For measurement data, the calculation of the model modelling can be efficiently used for satellite parameters is performed by Levenberg‐Marquardt orbitography and debris surveillance. The ultimate algorithm, applied to the special case of least squares. objective of our project is to perform precise Algorithm that combines the rapid local convergence of thermosphere modelling within a time delay that will Newton‐Raphson method with globally convergent eventually enable operational thermosphere method for non‐linear systems of equations is applied nowcasting and which we call 'near real‐time' for theoretically obtained differential spectra. The modelling. proposed analytical model gives practical possibility for Our model will have the potential to be adopted by investigation of experimental data from measurements national and European space agencies for operational of galactic cosmic rays and their anomalous component. tasks. Therefore, ATMOP contributes to ensuring the security of space assets from space weather events and REFERENCES the development of the European capability to reduce 1. Menn, W. et al. The absolute flux of protons and dependence of space operations on the US. It is helium at the top of the atmosphere using IMAX, included in the frame of the EU FP7 Space Call 3, FP7‐ Astrophys. J., 533, 281, 2000. SPACE‐2010‐1. It addresses the area 9.2.3 "Research 2. Boezio, M. et al., The cosmic ray proton and helium into reducing the vulnerability of space assets"and is spectra between 0.4 and 200 GV, Astrophys. J, 518, 457, designed to support the development of operational 1999. measures to insure the "Security of space assets from 3. Alcaraz, J. et al., Cosmic protons. AMS collaboration, space weather events" (SPA.2010.2.3‐01). Phys. Lett. B, 490, 27, 2000a. 4. Alcaraz, J. et al. Helium in near Earth orbit AMS *************** collaboration, Phys. Lett. B, 494, 193, 2000b. 5. Shikaze, Y. et al. Measurements of 0.2 ‐ 20 GeV/n cosmic‐ray proton and helium spectra from 1997 through 2002 with the BESS spectrometer. Astropart. Phys., 28, 154, 2007. 66 6. Yamamoto, A. Precise measurement of low energy (< The Energy per Ion Pair in Planetary Atmospheres as a TeV) cosmic‐rays with BESS. International Workshop on Means to evaluate Uncertainties in Transport Kinetic Energy Budget in the High Energy Universe, ICRR, Univ. Models Tokyo, Feb. 22‐24, 2000. Simon Wedlund, Cyril1; Gronoff, Guillaume2; Lilensten, 7. Buchvarova M., P.I.Y. Velinov. Cosmic Ray Spectra in Jean3; Ménager, Hélène3; Barthélemy, Mathieu3 Planetary Atmospheres. Universal Heliophysical 1BIRA‐IASB, BELGIUM; 2NASA Langley Research Center, Processes. Proceedings IAU Symposium No. 257, 2008, Hampton, VA, UNITED STATES; 3Laboratoire de Cambridge University Press, pp. 471 ‐ 474, 2009. Planétologie de Grenoble, FRANCE 8. Buchvarova M., P.I.Y. Velinov. Empirical Model of Cosmic Ray Spectrum in Energy Interval 1 MeV ‐ 100 The mean energy W expended in a collision of a GeV During 11 ‐ Year Solar Cycle. J. Adv. Space Res., 45, radiation with atmospheric gases is directly linked to its Issue 8, 1, 1026 ‐ 1034, 2010. efficiency to ionise these gases. This value has been used extensively for fast computation of ion production *************** rates in planetary upper atmospheres starting with Earth's. Computing this parameter in transport kinetic Kalman Filter Technique for improving Prediction of models with experimental uncertainties can tell us more smoothed Monthly Sunspot Numbers about the number of processes that have to be taken Podladchikova, Tanya1; Van Der Linden, Ronald2 into account and the intrinsic uncertainties of the 1National Technical University of Ukraine “KPI†, models. UKRAINE; 2Solar Influences Data analysis Center, Royal Simulations of W values using a family of multi‐stream Observatory of Belgium, BELGIUM kinetic transport codes are presented for several atmospheric gases of planetology interest such as CO2, In this work we develop a universal technique that CO, N2, O2, O, CH4, H and He. For the first time cross improves all the medium‐term prediction methods sections uncertainties and their propagation in the based on their monthly updating using the last models are consistently calculated using a Monte Carlo observations of smoothed sunspot number. The approach. Results for the complete thermospheres of improvement of prediction is provided by adaptive Venus, Earth, Mars, Jupiter and Titan are shown for the Kalman filter that uses last six monthly mean first time. Differences between experimental and measurements of sunspot number. These last six theoretical values of W for single gases show where monthly mean sunspot numbers are observed six improvements can be made in the measurements of months later than the 13‐month running mean (start inelastic cross sections by electron impact of e.g., CO2, point for the prediction updating). As usual, last six CO and O2 molecules. A simple method is finally derived monthly mean sunspot numbers are not directly used in to calculate W of gas mixtures from single‐component prediction algorithm because of large level of noise gases. This work is also a step towards the building of a included in them, although they give significant reliable cross section database, AtMoCiaD, to be used in information about cycle evolution in future. The proper the context of future planetary missions such as procedure of noise filtration and their direct using for ExoMars or MAVEN. the prediction provides the increase of prediction accuracy for all the methods. ***************

The prediction results obtained by any medium‐term Great SEP Events and Space Weather, 1. Probabilities method are inputted to the Kalman filter that causes of False and missed Alerts improvement of these predictions and are used for Dorman, Lev1; Pustil’nik, Lev2; Sternlieb, Abraham3; construction of state space stochastic model. Noise Zukerman, Igor2 statistics of this model is determined on the basis of the 1Tel Aviv University and Israel Space Agency, ISRAEL; developed identification method. 2Israel Cosmic Ray and Space Weather Center, ISRAEL; 3Israel Cosmic Ray and Space Weather, ISRAEL Our technique has been tested on the three medium‐ term methods of predictions from 6 to 18 months It is well known that in periods of great SEP fluxes of ahead which are now in operation: McNish‐Lincoln energetic particles can be so big that memory of method (NGDC), standard method (SIDC), combined computers and other electronics in space may be method (SIDC). Accuracy of prediction for McNish‐ destroyed, satellites and spacecrafts became dead: Lincoln method is increased by 26‐30%, for standard according to NOAA Space Weather Scales are dangerous method by 14‐24% and for combined method by 20‐ Solar Radiation Storms S5‐extreme (flux level of 57%. particles with energy > 10 MeV more than 10^5), S4‐ severe (flux more than 10^4) and S3‐strong (flux more *************** than 10^3). In these periods is necessary to switch off some part of electronics for few hours to protect computer memories. These periods are also dangerous for astronauts on space‐ships, and passengers and crew 67 in commercial jets (especially during S5 storms). The supported by Israel (Tel Aviv University and ISA) – Italian problem is how to forecast exactly these dangerous (UNIRoma‐Tre and IFSI‐CNR) collaboration. phenomena. We show that exact forecast can be made by using high‐energy particles (few GeV/nucleon and REFERENCES: higher) which transportation from the Sun is Dorman et al., "Great SEP events and space weather, 1. characterized by much bigger diffusion coefficient than Probabilities of false and missed alerts", Report on for small and middle energy particles. Therefore high ESSW‐7 energy particles came from the Sun much more early (8‐ 20 minutes after acceleration and escaping into solar *************** wind) than main part of smaller energy particles caused dangerous situation for electronics (about 30‐60 Great SEP Events and Space Weather, 3. Diffusion minutes later). We describe here principles and Coefficient, Time of Ejection and Energy Spectrum in experience of automatically working of program "SEP‐ Source. Search". The positive result which shows the exact 1 2 2 Dorman, Lev ; Pustil’nik, Lev ; Sternlieb, Abraham ; beginning of SEP event on the Emilio Segre' Observatory 2 Zukerman, Igor (2025 m above sea level, Rc=10.8 GV), is determined 1 Tel Aviv University and Israel Space Agency, ISRAEL; now automatically by simultaneously increasing on 2.5 2 Israel Cosmic Ray and Space Weather Center, ISRAEL St. Dev. in two sections of neutron supermonitor. The next 1‐min data the program "SEP‐Search" uses for In report Dorman et al. (2010) was described how works checking that the observed increase reflects the automatically the program "SEP‐Research/Spectrum", beginning of real great SEP or not. If yes, automatically determined on the basis of on‐line one‐minute NM data starts to work on line the programs "SEP‐Research". We the SEP spectrum on the Earth. We show that after this determine also the probabilities of false and missed can be determined the time of ejection, diffusion alerts. The work of NM on Mt. Hermon is supported by Israel (Tel Aviv University and ISA) – Italian (UNIRoma‐ coefficient in the interplanetary space and energy spectrum in source of SEP. We consider several Tre and IFSI‐CNR) collaboration. possibilities: 1) one of these three parameters is unknown, 2) two of these three parameters are *************** unknown, 3) all these three parameters are unknown. We show that in the first case is necessary to determine Great SEP Events and Space Weather , 2. Automatically energy spectrum of SEP on the Earth in two different Determination of Solar Energetic Particle Spectrum. moments of time and from two equations automatically Dorman, Lev1; Pustil’nik, Lev2; Sternlieb, Abraham2; 2 can be determined the unknown parameter (energy Zukerman, Igor spectrum in source or diffusion coefficient, or time of 1Tel Aviv University and Israel Space Agency, ISRAEL; 2 ejection; determination is made from one equation, and Israel Cosmic Ray and Space Weather Center, ISRAEL other is used for control of used model). In the second case is necessary to determine energy spectrum of SEP In report Dorman et al. (2010) was described how works on the Earth in three different moments of time and automatically the program "SEP‐Search", determined on from three equations automatically can be determined the basis of on‐line one‐minute NM data the beginning two parameters (for example, the energy spectrum in of great SEP event. The next one‐minute data the source and diffusion coefficient in the interplanetary program "SEP‐Search" uses for checking that the space). In the third case by using data for four different observed increase reflects the beginning of real great moments of time can be determined all three unknown SEP or not. If yes, automatically starts to work on line parameters (time of ejection, diffusion coefficient in the the program "SEP‐Research/Spectrum". We consider interplanetary space and energy spectrum in source of two variants: 1) quiet period (no change in cut‐off SEP), and one equations can be used for control of rigidity), 2) disturbed period (characterized with model. We describe in details the algorithms of the possible changing of cut‐off rigidity). We describe the programs "SEP‐Research/Time of Ejection", "SEP‐ method of determining of the spectrum of SEP in the 1‐ Research/Source" and "SEP‐Research/Diffusion". We st variant (for this we need data for at least two show how worked these programs on examples of some components with different coupling functions). For the historical great SEP events. 2‐nd variant we need data for at least three components with different coupling functions. We show REFERENCES Dorman et al., "Great SEP events and that for these purposes can be used data of total space weather , 2. Automatically determination of solar intensity and some different multiplicities, but better to energetic particle spectrum.", Report on ESWW‐7. use data from two or three NM with different cut‐off rigidities. We describe in details the algorithms of the *************** program "SEP‐Research/Spectrum". We show how worked this program on examples of some historical great SEP events. The work of NM on Mt. Hermon is

68 Analysis of the Ionospheric Variation over Korea environment modelling in the Solar Energetic Particle JEONG, CHEOL OH1; Park, Jae Woo1; Hong, Sun Hak2; Environment Modelling (SEPEM) project. Kim, Jung Hoon3 1 2 ETRI, KOREA, REPUBLIC OF; RRA, KOREA, REPUBLIC OF; *************** 3SET System, KOREA, REPUBLIC OF Predictions of SEP Events Based on Linear Filter and Ionospheric characteristics over Korea are studied using Layer Recurrent Neural Network the parameters observed at Anyang site (37.390N, Valach, Fridrich1; Revallo, Milos1; Hejda, Pavel2; 126.950E). Since 1973, Radio Research Agency(here Bochnicek, Josef2 after RRA) which is a government agency in Korea has 1Geophysical Institute, Slovak Academy of Sciences, been observing ionospheric conditions over Korea. The SLOVAKIA; 2Institute of Geophysics, Academy of Sciences current model for ionospheric observation is DPS‐4 from of the Czech Republic, CZECH REPUBLIC UMLCAR. The data used for present study covers past three solar cycles, solar cycle 21, 22 and 23. Based on Two models for the prediction of solar energetic proton the ionospheric parameters observed during these solar (SEP) enhancements are presented. The models are cycle periods, statistical behavior of the ionosphere based on a linear filter and on a special type of dynamic over the Korea and the relation between solar radio artificial neural network known as the layer‐recurrent burst events and abnormal behaviors of the observed neural network. SEPs modelling has become of great ionospheric parameters has studied. This paper shows interest in connection with safety of crews and the analysis result of the ionospheric variation over protection of technological systems of spacecrafts Korea and the relation between solar radio burst events outside the shielding Earth's magnetosphere. The and abnormal behaviors. models proposed are fed with information consisting of the class of X‐ray flares originated close to the centre of *************** the solar disc, types II or IV of the radio bursts, and of the position angles, widths, and linear speeds of the full Solar Energetic Particle Event (Sepe) Waiting Time or partial halo CMEs observed. The models are designed Analysis as Part of the Sepem Project to provide forecasts of the fluxes of protons with the Jiggens, Piers1; Gabriel, Stephen2; Heynderickx, Daniel3; energies exceeding 10 MeV in the libration point L1. Norma, Crosby4; Glover, Alexi5 1 2 ESA/ESTEC, NETHERLANDS; University of *************** Southampton, UNITED KINGDOM; 3DH Consultancy, 4 5 BELGIUM; BIRA, BELGIUM; ESA/ESAC, SPAIN In‐situ Observations of echoing HF radar backscatter targets and implications for GPS TEC errors One key consideration for models of the SEPE Moen, Joran1; Dyrud, L.2; Oksavik, K.3; Abe, T.4; Lester, environment is the distribution of SEPEs in time. Events M.5; Saito, Y.4; Bekkeng, J. K.6 in this respect are defined as enhancements of 1University of Oslo, NORWAY; 2JHU/APL, UNITED energetic particles above the background level as STATES; 3UNIS, NORWAY; 4ISAS/JAXA, JAPAN; 5Univ. of detected by monitors in Earth orbit (such as GOES/SEM Leicester, UNITED KINGDOM; 6Univ. of Oslo, NORWAY and IMP‐8/GME). These enhancements can include contributions from multiple physical phenomena The first direct measurements of HF‐backscatter (mainly CMEs with some contribution from solar flares) echoing electron density structures were conduced by and are defined in such a way as to ensure consecutive the ICI‐2 sounding rocket launched into the cusp enhancements are not linked in terms of their flux levels ionosphere over Svalbard 5 December 2008. The (e.g. particles from preceding CME may contaminate echoing targets for coherent HF radars are 10‐m scale the interplanetary medium and be re‐accelerated). It electron density structures, half the operating radar was previously assumed that in addition to mitigating wave length. Descending from ~300‐200 km altitude ICI‐ these flux dependencies that it was possible to ensure 2 traversed volumes of HF backscatter detected by the that SEPEs were independent in time resulting in a CUTLASS radar, near the poleward boundary of the random or Poissonian distribution of events. Our active cusp. ICI‐2 carried a novel 4‐Needle Langmuir analysis of multiple event lists generated using Probe system capable to measure absolute electron markedly different event definitions shows that there density at 5.7 kHz sampling rate which means sub‐ remains a time dependecy which should be considered meter resolution along the trajectory. The payload was by future models of the SEPE environment. There also equipped with a high resolution electron appears to be not only a short‐term system memory but spectrometer to resolve fine scale structures in the cusp also a longer‐term memory with greater concentrations auroral precipitation, and it carried an electric field of events at some times and sparsity of events at other experiment to measure the plasma drift surrounding times than is described by a Poisson distribution which the space craft. The 10‐m plasma irregularities were can better be modelled by a Lévy distribution. This observed near the trailing edge of km scale gradients in research is one part of development of space the electron density, which is in favour of the gradient

69 drift instability. The electron density gradients on which of sensitivity) depend on location in corresponding the gradient drift instability could operate were climate zone. apparently modulated by the electron precipitation.  It is shown that even in modern epoch effect of Furthermore, plasma structuring also occurred near the dependence of market price on wheat had place in centre of the inverted V electron beam, indicating that a USA for wheat "durum", produced in very compact current driven instability process also is to be region, sensitive to weather variation controlled by considered. It is well known that ionospheric plasma North Atlantic oscillation (NAO). density irregularities at scales from hundred of meters  It is shown coincidence of moments of mass to a few kilometres affects GHz frequencies used for mortality in Iceland in 18‐19 centuries (caused by satellite communication and navigation systems. The famines because reducing of livestock) with TEC errors based on the ICI‐2 electron density data has extremal phases of solar activity. been simulated. All these observational facts are in good agreement with proposed model of possible space weather *************** influence on wheat markets.

Plasma Density Profiles in the Plasmasphere for Space *************** Weather Applications Darrouzet, Fabien; De Keyser, Johan; Pierrard, Viviane Data Assimilation for Global Analysis ‐ an Activity of Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy (BIRA‐IASB), FP7 Research Project ATMOP BELGIUM Bushell, Andrew1; Jackson, David1; Aylward, Alan2 1Met Office, UNITED KINGDOM; 2Atmospheric Physics The multi‐spacecraft Cluster mission has been launched Laboratory, University College London, UNITED in 2000 and is still providing lots of high‐resolution and KINGDOM high‐quality data in the Earth's plasmasphere. In particular, the plasma density can be determined by Although attempts have been made (particularly in the several instruments and methods. With the 4 US) to produce ionospheric analyses and forecasts with spacecraft, it is also possible to compute reliable density global physical models, to date only a limited amount of gradients. Establishing plasmaspheric density profiles is work has been done to assimilate neutral atmosphere useful for space weather studies. In particular, it can be (thermosphere) data and fully coupled thermosphere‐ used in empirical models and data assimilative modeling ionosphere assimilation and modelling systems have yet of the Earth's plasmasphere, which can be linked to to emerge. Within the ATMOP (Advanced ionospheric models. We highlight plasmaspheric density Thermosphere Modelling for Orbit Prediction) project, profiles and density gradients determined by Cluster, the Data Assimilation for Global Analysis workpackage and how field‐aligned profiles can be derived from that. aims to build capability for the assimilation of multiple observational data types to produce global analyses of *************** the thermosphere and ionosphere that can initialize forecast simulations by a global, coupled thermosphere‐ About Possible Influence of Space Weather on Earth ionosphere physical model with a longer term view to Prices the development of future operational systems. Pustil'nik, Lev1; Yom Din, Gregory2 1Tel Aviv University, ISRAEL; 2Golan Research Institute, The first task within this workpackage will be to finalize ISRAEL the design and structure of the thermospheric data assimilation system, which will include decisions on The model of possible influence of space weather on length of the time‐window for assimilation, the Earth wheat markets is described. The model is based assimilation methods to be used, and selection of on cause‐sequence chain "space weather" ‐" earth assimilation control variables. In the global assimilation weather" ‐ "agriculture production‐crop" ‐ "price". In system, control variables should be independent from the frame of the proposed approach, sensitivity of earth each other and the probability density functions of their markets to space weather state are not universal errors should ideally have Gaussian form. For this phenomena, realized in any time and in any phase, but reason, meteorological forecasting systems choose to require for realization specific necessary conditions construct control variables such as streamfunction, caused by critical state of atmosphere, agriculture velocity potential and ageostrophic pressure, rather production and wheat market. than using observed temperature, winds or density directly. The second task of the workpackage is to produce an automated processing system for the  It is shown with high confidence level that this observations that can be used in the assimilation influence had place in of Middle Age England. system. The quality control system needs to check for  It is shown that sensitivity of the European wheat gross errors and make further checks to ensure that the markets to space weather factor (include signature observations are acceptably close to forecast fields produced by the physical model, a step that might use 70 observation errors supplied by the data providers. An ejection and energy spectrum in source", Report on estimate of model forecast error is also needed in order ESWW‐7. for the assimilation system to assess the relative weight it should assign to model forecast and observational *************** data in the analysis. A test of the observation processing scheme will be to examine the performance of the Great SEP Events and Space Weather, 5. Radiation physical model when perturbations (observation minus Hazard Forecasting in Space, in Magnetosphere, and in model differences) calculated by the scheme are added the Atmosphere to the model fields. Dorman, Lev1; Pustil’nik, Lev2; Sternlieb, Abraham2; Zukerman, Igor2 As a preliminary activity, to explore the extent to which 1Tel Aviv University and Israel Space Agency, ISRAEL; physical model forecast fields and observations might or 2Israel Cosmic Ray and Space Weather Center, ISRAEL might not be acceptably close, we have made a quantitative comparison of temperature retrievals for In report Dorman et al. (2010) were described how the middle atmosphere from two limb‐sounding worked automatically the programs "SEP‐ instruments, the Earth Observing System Microwave Research/Time of Ejection", "SEP‐Research/Source" and Limb Sounder (EOSMLS) and Sounding of the "SEP‐Research/Diffusion" on the basis of NM and Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry satellite data. On the basis of these programs on‐line (SABER), and forecast output over the 2007 spring can be determined the time of ejection, diffusion equinox period from the Coupled Middle Atmosphere coefficient in the interplanetary space and energy Thermosphere (CMAT2) model. Developed at University spectrum in source of SEP. Here we show how on the College London, CMAT2 is a global physical model which basis of these results can be made forecasting of ranges upwards over 63 levels at intervals of 1/3 scale expected radiation hazard for computers, electronics, height in pressure from a lower boundary at 100hPa solar battaries, technology and people health in space (15km altitude). Calculation of differences between on different distances from the Sun and on different collocated model and observed temperatures gives an helio‐latitudes. We show that the same can be made for indication of the scale of perturbation amplitudes that satellites on different orbits in the magnetosphere with might be encountered by a future assimilation system. taking into account the change of cut‐off rigidities along the orbits (for people health, solar battaries, computers, *************** electronics, technology). By the method of coupling functions for different altitudes in the atmosphere we Great SEP Events and Space Weather, 4. describe principles of radiation hazard forecasting on‐ Simultaneously using of NM and Satellite one Minute line for air‐planes on regular and non‐regular lines in Data dependence of altitudes and cut‐off rigidities, and value Dorman, Lev1; Pustil’nik, Lev2; Sternlieb, Abraham2; of shielding. On‐line will be made forecasting of Zukerman, Igor2 radiation hazard on the ground for people health and 1Tel Aviv University and israel Space Agency, ISRAEL; technology in dependence from the cut‐off rigidity and 2Israel Cosmic Ray and Space Weather Center, ISRAEL atmospheric pressure. If for some cases the calculated radiation hazard will be expected higher than some In report Dorman et al. (2010) was described how works definite level of dangerous, will be on‐line send special automatically the program allowed by using one minute Alerts. We show how worked these programs on data of NM for four different moments of time to examples of some historical great SEP events. determine the time of ejection, diffusion coefficient in the interplanetary space and energy spectrum in source REFERENCES: Dorman L.I. et al. "Great SEP events and of SEP . These results were obtained for high energy space weather, 4. Simultaneously using of NM and solar CR to which are sensitive NM. To expand obtained satellite one minute data", Report on ESWW‐7. results in the region of small energies, now it is possible to use available from Internet on‐line one minute data *************** of satellites. We describe in details the algorithms of the programs "SEP‐Research/Time of Ejection", "SEP‐ Research/Source" and "SEP‐Research/Diffusion". We check obtain predictions on the basis of 30‐40 minutes by data obtained during many hours after event beginning.

REFERENCES Dorman L. et al., "Great SEP events and space weather , 3. Automatically determination of diffusion coefficient in the interplanetary space, time of

71 Trans‐Magnetosphere Impact of a lightning Discharge region of the causative thunderstorm and in the MC on Global Atmospheric Electric Circuit with changing region by simulation. The magnetosphere is Parameters represented as a media where no attenuation of the Velinov, Peter; Tonev, Peter propagation takes place between two MC locations. Space and Solar‐Terrestrial Research Institute, Two approximations are used. First, we evaluate the BULGARIA electric fields of interest in quasi‐static approximation, as solutions to the Maxwell’s equations for this case. The amount of thunderstorms (TS's) and electrified The finite volume method is applied to solve the clouds in the Earth's troposphere generate currents into continuity equation for the density of the Maxwell the global atmospheric electric circuit and maintain the current by assumption for a potential electric field. Also, electric potential of 250‐300 kV of the ionosphere more accurate study is implemented for the EM field by related to the surface. Between 50 and 100 lightning using the full system of Maxwell's equations. Finite‐ discharges per second over the globe produce difference time‐domain method (e.g. Simpson and electromagnetic (EM) fields in the Earth‐ionosphere Taflove, 2007) is used to calculate the propagation of waveguide. Around a single thunderstorm strong quasi‐ the electromagnetic field. Perfectly absorbing boundary electrostatic fields are generated, as drivers of transient conditions are used on the lateral and the altitudinal luminous events (sprites and jets) in the boundaries. The model sub‐domain for the source strato/mesosphere and lower ionosphere. region has a horizontal dimension of 400 km; the Experimental, as well as theoretical, investigations of vertical region is 0‐150 km. For MC region the sub‐ the local and global interactions of the electric fields domain is 1000 km horizontally and its vertical region is from lightning discharges with the earth environment 50‐150 km (the electric fields below 50 km are are important for understanding the processes in the neglected). An adaptive grid and time‐step are used to global electric circuit, and their possible role as a link achieve an accuracy needed. between the space weather, on one hand and on the other, climate (e.g.Tinsley, 1996) and human health. Our first results show that the electric fields of interest can be as large as few tenths of V/m in the mesosphere. Possible mechanisms are discussed by which production However, in some specific cases, when the conductivity of large electric fields is possible far from the source in the mesosphere is significantly reduced, they can be lightning discharge in the lower ionosphere, the much larger. Another location of relatively large ELF mesosphere, and lower regions. These fields and the fields generated far from the causative lightning related currents can play an important role for the discharge can be at the antipodal region. The processes in the considered regions. According to some contribution of these large EMF fields to the former authors (Hale, 2002), the electric fields by a lightning considered electric fields can be also significant. discharge can lead to formation of transient fields in the magnetically conjugate (MC) region. These are realized References by a polarization of the magnetosphere between both MC locations by electric charge inserted in the base of Hale L.C. (2002). Origin of big dc electric fields in the the ionosphere above the source TS. In situation when mesosphere, Adv. Space Res., 30, 2607. there are active TSs in both MC regions, a polarization Simpson, J.J., A. Taflove (2007). A review of progress of wave can be created between the ends of the magnetic FDTD Maxwell’s equations modeling of impulsive field lines across the magnetosphere. This mechanism is subionospheric propagation below 300 kHz, IEEE used to explain the large (>~1 V/m) electric fields Trans.Anten.Propag., 95, 1582. measured in the mesosphere (Zadorozhny and Tyutin, Tinsley, B.A. (1996). Correlations of atmospheric 1997) which correlate with Carnegie curve and depend dynamics with solar‐wind induced changes of air‐earth on the space weather parameters. Possibly, the current density into cloud tops, J.Geoph.Res., 101, D23, production of a purple sprite after a lightning discharge 29,701. in the MC region can be related to this mechanism. The Zadorozhny, A.M., A.A. Tyutin (1997). Universal diurnal alternative mechanism which involves fluxes of runaway variation of mesosphoric electric fields, Adv.Space Res. electrons by the discharge and transported via 20, 2177. magnetosphere is not supported experimentally. *************** These considerations show the need of evaluation of the electric fields generated by lightning in the MC region. Our goal is to perform such evaluation theoretically depending on different factors which include space weather, and solar and geomagnetic activity, since they influence the global electrical circuit. We estimate the role of the solar cycle on the electric fields of interest. We study the electric fields produced by a single cloud‐to‐ground lightning discharge in the 72 about half a dozen transmitters located at different Temporal Analysis of Topside Ionosphere Plasma sites of the globe, in Europe, Australia and USA, the Parameters respective VLF data, phase and amplitude, being Slominska, Ewa; Rothkaehl, Hanna continuously monitored by the AbsPAL facility and since Space Research Center PAS, POLAND 2009, also by another independent AWESOME receiver, both installed at the Institute of Physics, Belgrade Current studies are devoted to temporal analysis of (44.85 N, 20.38 E). major plasma parameters in the topside ionosphere. A model for predicting electron density enhancements Statistical analysis are based on measurements onboard in the lower ionosphere during X‐ray Solar flares has DEMETER satellite, one of satellites from CNES MYRIADE been developed and successfully tested on about 150 micro‐satellite series. Analysed data were obtained with Solar flare events in the period May to August 2004‐ IAP ‐ thermal plasma instrument and Langmuir probe ‐ 2007. The model combines geostationary satellite GOES ISL. As there are now available more than five years of X‐ray data and VLF wave data, both sets with 1 min operational data, it gives good representation of topside resolution. In spite of the signals' different paths in ionospheric conditions, with possibility of carrying length and structure, a distinctive coincidence between multi‐instrumental analysis, performed in equal the disturbance of the VLF phase and amplitude, and conditions. Measurements has been obtained during the notable increase in X‐ray irradiance is invariably periods of both high Sun activity, as well as, calm encountered. conditions, what implies significant material for comparison and case‐study analysis. The phase and amplitude maximal disturbance (i.e. extremal value, either maximum or minimum) is most For better understanding ionosphere dynamics regularly seen to lag behind the maximum X‐ray investigation is carried on ion drift, variations of irradiance, thus bringing forward a characteristic time electron and ion temperature and densities. We provide delay in correlating the ground based phase and global characteristics of topside ionosphere for major amplitude measurements to the respective GOES X‐ray plasma parameters. With obtained results, further measurements. The time delay could be uniquely studies on validation of common ionospheric models for determined for about 90% of observed events, and is a upper ionosphere could be performed. Special interest key input parameter to the model that solves the is focused on seasonal variations, but additionally electron continuity equation with the electron results of comparison studies for two distinct magnetic production rate driven by the increased X‐ray storms are presented. Events under investigation took irradiance. The output is the time profile of the electron place on January 2005 and August 2008. density, continuous throughout flare duration, for a given height. *************** However, at larger Solar flares, high class M and X in particular, we have observed amplitude disturbances Subionospheric VLF Propagation Data ‐ Signatures of which are highly structured and reveal a negative time Solar X‐Ray Flares 1 2 3 delay if the concept is applied as defined. In this Zigman, Vida ; Grubor, Davorka ; Kolarski, Aleksandra ; 4 instance the increase of amplitude starts to follow the Sulic, Desanka 1 2 rising of the irradiance, but appears to be detained, University of Nova Gorica, SLOVENIA; Milutina 3 reaching its apparent 'maximum' before the irradiance Milankovica 130, Belgrade, SERBIA; Geophysical 4 maximum, and then decreases through a characteristic Institute, Belgrade, SERBIA; Institute of Physics, 'bump' at the time the X‐ray irradiance has descended Belgrade, SERBIA from its maximum value. This pattern has been observed on long, sea dominated VLF paths, in During Solar flares, X‐rays in the spectral range 0.1‐0.8 particular on NAA/24.0 kHz, Maine to Belgrade , but nm penetrate the lower ionosphere, causing abrupt and also by others, like on NKL/24.8 kHz, Seattle to Dunedin strong enhancement of ionization (of one to three path. orders of magnitude with respect to regular values). These changes affect most remarkably the long To comprehend this phenomenon we have compared wavelength propagation along the duct between the the NAA signal registered by another VLF receiver, the Earth surface and the lower reflective boundary of the one closest to Belgrade, at Erd (47.38 N, 18.92 E) with ionospheric D‐region (the Earth‐ionosphere waveguide), the distance difference along the GCP of 247 km. For making Very Low Frequency (VLF< 30 kHz) radio waves flares that on the NAA to Belgrade path have induced an excellent tool in exploring the lower ionosphere amplitude detainment, no structured amplitude ionization. disturbance has been observed on NAA to Erd; a smooth amplitude maximum indicated regular time We have registered Solar flares occurring during the delay, instead. Electron density enhancements Solar cycle 23 in particular, on the basis of signals from determined from the time delay on this path as well as 73 on the paths GQD/ 21.0 kHz to Belgrade and to Erd have Comparative analysis of the storm intensity and their been found in fair overall agreement, the maximum triggering factors marked out the complex role of the Bz discrepancies not exceeding 30%. for the energy transfer from solar wind to the terrestrial magnetosphere. Alternatively, we have used the NOSC simulation programme LWPC (Long Wavelength Propagation *************** Capability). By reproducing the measured amplitude and phase values, the Wait parameters, sharpness (β) Making Temperature Maps of the Solar Corona in real and effective height (H') are determined at different Time by Blind Source Separation stages of the flare, enabling to reproduce the Dudok de Wit, Thierry1; Goryaev, Farid2; Kretzschmar, corresponding electron density height profiles. Good Matthieu1 agreement between the LWPC estimates and the results 1University of Orléans, FRANCE; 2Lebedev Physical of the method based on time delay (within some 20 %) Institute, RUSSIAN FEDERATION adds to the meaning of time delay as a quantity identifying the time of maximum waveguide One of the challenges with EUV imagers like SDO/AIA is perturbation. to rapidly retrieve pertinent physical information from the simultaneous observations of multiple wavelengths. Finally, by using the 'range exponential model' of the As the number of wavelengths steadily increases, so do LWPC programme, the particular patterns of amplitude the difficulties encountered in visualising multispectral and phase disturbances have been analysed along the images. respective GCPs from transmitter to receiver. The redistribution of modal extrema on the propagation The classical approach is to model the differential path is found to be decisive to the particular amplitude ‐ emission measure (DEM) and infer from it the phase perturbation. For a given flare event, electron temperature distribution for each image pixel. A density enhancements obtained by using the time delay different and empirical approach is blind source method are comparable, whether deduced from the separation, where we assume that the for each maximum or minimum, amplitude/ phase pattern, as wavelength, the pixel intensity is a linear combination displayed on different propagation paths. of contributions (source images) with specific emission spectra. The objective then is to recover both the *************** sources and their mixing coefficients without any a priori information. This is a blind source separation Fast Solar Wind and Geomagnetic Storms during Solar problem, which has recently received considerable Cycle 23 (1996‐2008) attention in various areas such as the processing of MARIS, Ovidiu1; Dobrica, Venera2; Demetrescu, Crisan2; hyperspectral images from planets, in acoustics, in Maris, Georgeta2 airborne surveying, etc. 1Institute for Space Sciences, ROMANIA; 2Institute of Geodinamics of the Romanian Academy, Bucharest, Here we consider a recent technique called Bayesian ROMANIA Positive Source Separation [Amblard et al., AA 487, L13‐ L16(2008)] to extract sources from SDO/AIA images in The paper analyses the fast solar wind during solar cycle multiple wavelengths. In both cases we find that 3 23 and the geomagnetic storms driven by it in the source images capture the salient isolate specfic terrestrial magnetosphere. temperature bands corresponding to different parts of The authors' final goal consists in setting up a complex the corona. These results are validated through catalog of geomagnetic storms and their solar and comparison with a DEM reconstruction based on a heliospheric sources during the peculiar solar cycle no. Bayesian model. We show how these source images can 23 (1996‐2008). Such catalog would offer a useful data be used to reconstruct solar temperature maps in near base for case analysis in order to improve the real time. geomagnetic forecasts. Geomagnetic storms registered during solar cycle 23 *************** were selected by their main parameters and features, such as: the start and maximum times, the intensity of A Methods for filling Data Gaps in Multichannel Solar storm (minimum of Dst), sudden or gradual Records commencement, the phase aspect. Their trigger sources Dudok de Wit, Thierry (solar or heliospheric) were chosen from the high‐speed University of Orléans, FRANCE streams catalog for solar cycle 23, the catalog of halo coronal mass ejections, the available solar flare data Data gaps are a major nuisance in the analysis of space base, and OMNI II data base. The maximum value of the data and yet, surprisingly little effort has been spent to southern Bz during the main phase of the storm was mitigate them. In most cases, linear of spline also considered. interpolation techniques are used, which are

74 appropriate for short data gaps only. The current "I LOVE MY SUN‐3" event is based on the Much better results can be achieved with multichannel proposed COST ES0803 Working Group 3 (WG3) Action measurements such as the solar spectral irradiance at for "SG3.4 General public outreach to the non‐ different wavelengths or several solar proxies. The idea specialist". It is an European outreach activity is to exploit the correlation between the different concerning space weather and the Sun as perceived by channels or variables to fill the gaps with common school children in the age group 7‐11 years old. The information. We consider for this the Singular Value main objectives of the "I LOVE MY SUN‐3" are: Decomposition and show how arbitrarily large gaps can be filled.  To extend and continue "I Love My Sun" in accordance with MOU COST of FP7 ES0803 and Two examples are shown: one is about the solar CaK theSWWT Topical Group of Education, Outreach index, whose daily value records has over 60% of and Emerging Markets (EOEM) missing values. The second one is about the solar  Make children aware of Space Weather, the Sun, irradiance observations made by the SOHO/SEM Sun‐Earth relations and of how they, the children, instrument. Several months of observations were lost in are part of this global picture. 1998 when SOHO suffered from interruptions. We show  Investigate if this exercise can lead to novel ways of how in both cases the missing values can be approaching children with autism spectrum reconstructed with an error of less than 5%, relative to disorder. the solar cycle variability. School children of the Baskent University Kolej Ayseabla *************** Okullary in Ankara were the subject group this time. There were 66 children, in the age group 8‐10, who Comparison between IRI‐2007 Predictions and were involved in the activity. The children were asked to Ionosonde Measurements of hmF2 at Nicosia during draw the Sun as they perceived it at the start of the Low Solar Activity exercise. This was followed by a lecture about the Sun, Haralambous, Haris1; Economou, Lefteris2 whereafter the children were asked to draw the Sun 1Frederick University, CYPRUS; 2Intercollege, CYPRUS again.

This paper examines the diurnal and seasonal variations The following results were obtained: of the height of the peak electron density of the F2‐ layer (hmF2) derived from digital ionosonde  Almost all of the children absorbed the information measurements at the low‐middle latitude operating conveyed to them concerning sunspots, solar flares, European station in Nicosia, Cyprus (coordinates: 35o N, Sun‐Earth relations. 33o E geographic),. Median hourly values of hmF2 are  Drawings/paintings by the children are planned to obtained using manually scaled data during the solar be exhibited at several media events. minimum period from January 2009 to September 2010.  Almost all of the children expressed the Sun in their Diurnal and seasonal variations of hmF2 are examined paintings as a picture story. and comparisons of the observations are made with the  Most of the children drew a quarter of the Sun at predictions of the International Reference Ionosphere one top hand corner of the drawing (common (IRI‐2007) model. universal character of schematisation of children)  After receiving training about the Sun, the Sun *************** became a dominant motif in the drawing, which indicates that the children now perceived the Sun FP7 COST ES0803 I LOVE MY SUN‐ 3 An Outreach as an independent object/identity. Activity in Europe An exercise on the training of school  Pre‐training paintings/drawings drawn by the children of age group 8‐10 years children reflected the experience they had and 1 1 2 Tulunay, Yurdanur ; Tulunay, E. ; Cizmecioglu, A. ; their thoughts in general. However, after the 3 4 5 Crosby, N. ; Gençaydýn, Z. ; Sekercioglu, A. ; training their conception of the Sun and Sun‐Earth 5 Kucukturan, G. relations changed in many cases. 1 2 3 Metu, TURKEY; ROKETSAN, TURKEY; Belgian Institute  The objective of creating an awareness of the 4 for Space Aeronomy, BELGIUM; Hacettepe University, scientific aspects of the Sun and Sun‐Earth relations 5 TURKEY; Baskent University Kolej Ayseabla Okullari, was fulfilled TURKEY REFERENCES In the present day society, there is a vital need for setting up education and outreach activities in the  COST 724 (http://cost724.obs.ujf‐grenoble.fr/) Space Weather field for creating a healthy environment  COST 296 (http://www.cost296.rl.ac.uk/) for proper development of Space Weather markets  FP6 Action SWEETS (http://www.sweets2007.eu/) along with fundamental and applied research activities.

75  IHY 2007‐2009 (http://ihy2007.org/events/events.shtml)  METU / ODTU‐ AEE (http://www.ae.metu.edu.tr/~cost/)

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EUV Observations of Micro‐Eruptions and Their Associated Coronal Waves Podladchikova, O1.; Vourlidas, A. 2; Van der Linden, R. A. M. 1; Wülser, J.‐P. 3; Patsourakos, S. 1 ROB1, NRL2, LMSAL3

The Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory EUV telescopes have uncovered small‐scale eruptive events, tentatively referred to as "mini‐CMEs" because > they exhibit morphologies similar to large‐ scale coronal mass ejections(CMEs). Coronal waves and widespread diffuse dimmings followed by the expansion of the coronal waves are the most brightly manifestations of large‐scale CMEs. The high temporal and spatial resolution of the EUV data allows us to detect and analyze these eruptive events, to resolve their fine structure, and to show that the observed "mini‐waves" have a strong similarity to the large‐scale "EIT' waves. Here, we analyze a micro‐event observed on 2007 October 17 by the Sun Earth Connection Coronal and Heliospheric Investigation EUV Imager (EUVI) in 171 Å (Fe IX) with a 2.5 minute cadence. The mini‐CME differs from its large‐scale counterparts by having smaller geometrical size, a shorter lifetime, and reduced intensity of coronal wave and dimmings. The small‐scale coronal wave develops from micro‐flaring sites and propagate up to a distance of 40,000 km in a wide angular sector of the quiet Sun over 20 minutes. The area of the small‐scale dimming is two orders of magnitude smaller than for large‐scale events. The average speed of the small‐scale coronal wave studied is 14 km s‐1. Our observations give strong indications that small‐scale EUV coronal waves associated with the micro‐eruptions propagate in the form of slow mode waves almost perpendicular to the background magnetic field.

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