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[email protected] Israel and Lebanon: The Risk of New Conlficts Anthony H. Cordesman Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy Center for Strategic and International Studies Copyright Anthony H. Cordesman, all rights reserved. No quotation, reference, or further reproduction is permitted without the author’s express written permission in each single case. Israel and Lebanon: The New Military and Strategic Realities 10/23/00 Page ii October 23, 2000 Copyright Anthony H. Cordesman, all rights reserved. No quotation, reference, or further reproduction is permitted without the author’s express written permission in each single case. Israel and Lebanon: The New Military and Strategic Realities 10/23/00 Page iii Note: This analysis is a draft section of a book on the Arab-Israeli balance to be published by Praeger in late 2000. It is being circulated for comment and further revision. It may be quoted or referenced, but only as a “rough draft.” Copyright Anthony H. Cordesman, all rights reserved. No quotation, reference, or further reproduction is permitted without the author’s express written permission in each single case. Israel and Lebanon: The New Military and Strategic Realities 10/23/00 Page iv Table of Contents A HISTORY OF CIVIL WAR .................................................................................................................................. 1 THE LEBANESE MILITARY