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Israel and Lebanon: the Risk of New Conlficts CSIS_______________________________ Center for Strategic and International Studies 1800 K Street N.W. Washington, DC 20006 (202) 775-3270 Web: CSIS.ORG Contact: [email protected] Israel and Lebanon: The Risk of New Conlficts Anthony H. Cordesman Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy Center for Strategic and International Studies Copyright Anthony H. Cordesman, all rights reserved. No quotation, reference, or further reproduction is permitted without the author’s express written permission in each single case. Israel and Lebanon: The New Military and Strategic Realities 10/23/00 Page ii October 23, 2000 Copyright Anthony H. Cordesman, all rights reserved. No quotation, reference, or further reproduction is permitted without the author’s express written permission in each single case. Israel and Lebanon: The New Military and Strategic Realities 10/23/00 Page iii Note: This analysis is a draft section of a book on the Arab-Israeli balance to be published by Praeger in late 2000. It is being circulated for comment and further revision. It may be quoted or referenced, but only as a “rough draft.” Copyright Anthony H. Cordesman, all rights reserved. No quotation, reference, or further reproduction is permitted without the author’s express written permission in each single case. Israel and Lebanon: The New Military and Strategic Realities 10/23/00 Page iv Table of Contents A HISTORY OF CIVIL WAR .................................................................................................................................. 1 THE LEBANESE MILITARY FORCES ...................................................................................................................... 6 The Lebanese Army....................................................................................................................................... 7 The Lebanese Air Force and Navy ................................................................................................................ 8 Land Forces................................................................................................................................................ 15 THE SYRIAN MILITARY PRESENCE IN LEBANON ................................................................................................. 19 Syrian Forces in Lebanon and Possible Creation of a Second Front against Israel..................................... 19 THE HIZBOLLAH AND THE PROXY-WAR IN LEBANON ......................................................................................... 22 The Evolution of the Hizbollah ................................................................................................................... 23 Foreign Support for the Hizbollah .............................................................................................................. 25 The Size and Armament of Hizbollah .......................................................................................................... 29 The Role of the Hizbollah in Military and Terrorist Actions........................................................................ 33 Amal in Military and Terrorist Actions ....................................................................................................... 33 The South Lebanon Army............................................................................................................................ 34 ISRAEL’S DEFEAT IN LEBANON: AN ISRAELI VIETNAM?...................................................................................... 37 The Basic Military Situation ....................................................................................................................... 38 The Fighting Through 1995 ........................................................................................................................ 39 The Disaster of Operation Grapes of Wrath................................................................................................ 40 Trying to Fight Guerrillas on Their Own Terms .......................................................................................... 41 Blundering Towards Withdrawal................................................................................................................. 45 Sensors and Electronic Fences.................................................................................................................... 49 Air Raids, “Massive Retaliation, ” and Collapse ........................................................................................ 50 SYRIA, ISRAEL, AND LEBANON WITH OR WITHOUT THE PEACE PROCESS............................................................. 52 Israeli Defense Options............................................................................................................................... 52 Peace as a Defense..................................................................................................................................... 55 The UNIFIL Option .................................................................................................................................... 56 THE FUTURE THREAT TO ISRAEL PROPER – WITH AND WITHOUT A PEACE .......................................................... 63 Copyright Anthony H. Cordesman, all rights reserved. No quotation, reference, or further reproduction is permitted without the author’s express written permission in each single case. Israel and Lebanon: The New Military and Strategic Realities 10/23/00 Page v List of Tables, Figures, and Maps MAP 9.1 ............................................................................................................................................................... 10 THE LEBANON FRONTIER ...................................................................................................................................... 10 TABLE 9.1 ............................................................................................................................................................ 11 CURRENT STATUS OF LEBANESE MILITARY FORCES................................................................................................ 11 TABLE 9.2 ............................................................................................................................................................ 13 FORCE TRENDS IN LEBANON - PART ONE ............................................................................................................... 13 TABLE 9.2 ............................................................................................................................................................ 14 FORCE TRENDS IN LEBANON -PART TWO................................................................................................................ 14 FIGURE 9.1 ........................................................................................................................................................... 15 LEBANESE MAJOR MILITARY EQUIPMENT IN 2000.................................................................................................. 15 FIGURE 9.2 ........................................................................................................................................................... 16 TRENDS IN LEBANESE MILITARY SPENDING: 1986-1997......................................................................................... 16 FIGURE 9.3 ........................................................................................................................................................... 17 TRENDS IN LEBANESE ARMS IMPORT DELIVERIES: 1985-1997 ................................................................................ 17 FIGURE 9.4 ........................................................................................................................................................... 18 LEBANESE ARMS AGREEMENTS AND DELIVERIES BY MAJOR SUPPLIER: 1996-1999 ................................................. 18 TABLE 9.3 ............................................................................................................................................................ 32 DEVELOPMENTS IN HIZBOLLAH MILITARY FORCES IN LEBANON IN 1998-2000......................................................... 32 Copyright Anthony H. Cordesman, all rights reserved. No quotation, reference, or further reproduction is permitted without the author’s express written permission in each single case. While the Golan is the usual focus of discussions of the Arab-Israeli military balance and future Arab-Israeli conflicts, Lebanon has long been the scene of actual fighting. Israel’s sudden withdrawal from Lebanon in May 2000 may do little to change this situation, and Israel is only one of Lebanon’s problems. Lebanon’s destiny will also be affected by the future of any factional struggles and the role the Hizbollah plays in Lebanon’s internal politics, any broader confrontations between Syria and Israel, Syria’s continuing military role as an occupying power, and the ultimate success or non-success of the peace talks between Israel and Syria. At the time, fighting between Israel and the Palestine that began in September 2000 shows that Lebanon could also become involved in any Second Intifada. One key issue is whether a successful Israeli-Syrian peace agreement will lead to full Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon, or will be based on the de facto acceptance of continued Syrian occupation after Israel withdraws. Another
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