Menu Forecast: 2020 and Beyond Nancy Kruse, The Kruse Company Lizzy Freier, Technomic, Inc. Menus 2020: Introduction Restaurateurs are bombarded by info, inputs Challenge: Sort through hype and hoopla Opportunity: Identify foods and flavors with appeal Objective: Put trends to work in your operation for your customers and your bottom line

2 Menu Size Relatively Stable; Deeper Dive Reveals Volatility Five-year item count change

Add-On Kids Menu Adult Beverage Nonalcohol Side +32.5% +15.4% 4.3% Beverage +3.2% +3.3%

Overall -1.2% Dessert Entree Appetizer Senior Menu -0.6% -3.4% -3.7% -12.2%

Source: Technomic Ignite menu data 3 Action Shifts to LTOs, Specials and Add-Ons

23 Entree 18 Appetizer Categories Categories Five-Year LTO Change +63.9%

3 6 YOY YOY

Source: Technomic Ignite menu data 4 Menus 2020 Agenda Health Asian Middle Eastern The Next Big Thing

5 Healthful: 9% 14% 2020 and Beyond 7%

“I’m eating more food because of its 20% specific nutritional 20% benefits than I did two years ago.” Agree completely Agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree 30% Disagree Disagree completely

Source: Technomic 2018 Healthy Eating Consumer Trend Report 6 Trendy Diet Plans Fuel New Dishes

Options: • Paleo 38% of • Keto consumers would try • Whole 30 • Vegetarian • Gluten-Free

Source: Technomic 2018 Healthy Eating Consumer Trend Report 7 Gluten-Free Still Trending? Yes, But So Are Good Grains

Panera reveals whole-grain content of • Clarify exact whole-grain content • Avoid misleading labeling

BBQ Chicken on Whole Grain Flatbread

8 Dining Law of Physics: Equal, Opposite Reaction

Spaghetti Better Luck Tomorrow Austin, Texas • Brunch Menu • Spaghetti • Burrata • Parmesan-Crusted Texas Toast

9 Moo-Less Milks: Nuts, Grains, Vegetables…

Starbucks adds oat milk at Reserve, Princi locations

10 …And Everything but the Cow Chocolate Peanut Truffle with cashew Milk Shooter milk soft serve State Bird Provisions 16 Handles San Francisco

11 Has Cauliflower Lost Its ? Earth Angel Cocktail Mushroom Brûlée with mushroom juice Signature Slinger with ground porcinis and garnish blended burger Timna Birds & Bees Sonic Drive-In New York City

12 Update from the QSR Front: Cleaner Foods Initiatives

Wendy’s Announces Major Advancement in Beef Sourcing • Cattle care • Food safety • Antibiotic use • Sustainability 37% of consumers say “USDA-certified” is the most Peppercorn Mushroom Melt appealing claim for beef

Source: Technomic 2019 Center of the Plate: Beef & Pork Consumer Trend Report 13 Beyond 2020 All Natural, All The Time Functional Natural Remedies Enhancements

67% of consumers would be more likely to buy food or drink with functional benefits

32% would pay more for it

Source: Technomic 2018 Healthy Eating Consumer Trend Report 14 Physical, Mental and Emotional Health

Dandelion Herbal “” Surf & Turf with CBD Bikini Smoothie with chaga mushroom, ghee bearnaise with collagen and MCT oil Adriaen Block Hi Protein Bar Astoria, N.Y. Los Angeles +300%

Source: Technomic Ignite menu data 15 Chocolate Brown Pork Beef High ABV Egg Sugar/Sugar White

Tried and True Healthful Tease

Panela/Plant- Plant-Based Low ABV/ Carob Based Sugar Ghee Jackfruit Imitations Nonalcohol Aquafaba

Source: Technomic Predictive 16 Plant-Based Meat…

King’s Oatmeal with coconut bacon Impossible Sunrise Memphis Arooga’s Grille House & Sports Bar Memphis, Tenn.

58% of consumers are more willing to buy items That’s Not Bacon! That’s Not Beef! described as “plant- based”

Source: Technomic 2018 Healthy Eating Consumer Trend Report 17 …And Plant-Based Seafood, Egg and More

Just Pepper and Crab Cakes with Egg with mung hearts of palm egg Gracias Madre Clover Food Lab West , Calif.

26% of consumers are willing to pay more for items That’s Not Egg! that are “plant-based” That’s Not Seafood!

Source: Technomic 2018 Healthy Eating Consumer Trend Report 18 Mocktails Get Disguised The Herbal with housemade Vegetal with Green Earth Farm spiced Seedlip Garden with verjus Nancy’s Hustle Corrida Cindy’s Chicago Houston Boulder, Colo.

+110% Seedlip

Source: Infegy 19 Menus 2020 Agenda Health Asian Middle Eastern The Next Big Thing

20 Asian: Chinese 66% 20% 7% 7% 2020 and Beyond Japanese 50% 12% 25% 12%

“Which best Thai 43% 9% 30% 18% describes your attitude toward Korean 36% 8% 36% 20% these cuisines?” Indian 34% 7% 33% 26%

Vietnamese 28% 6% 41% 24%

Tried it and like it, and it is unique/exciting Tried it and like it, but not unique/exciting Haven't tried it, but would like to, sounds good Don't like it or wouldn't consider trying it

Source: Technomic 2018 Ethnic Food & Beverage Consumer Trend Report 21 Trending Cuisines Are Ripe for Riffing General Tso’s Burger with General K-BBQ Burger Ramen Burger with Tso’s sauce with Kimcheese ramen bun Dogfish Alehouse Plan Check Red Robin Fairfax, Va. Los Angeles

22 +42.9% Korean Crossover: in add-ons Kimchee Variations Sister-in-Law Sandwich BB Street Corn with with kimchee kimchee Steingold’s of Chicago Ba Bellies Chicago Peachtree Corners, Ga.

Source: Technomic Ignite menu data 23 And Creative Korean Bibimbap Bowl Koreatown with with gochujang sauce Levi’s Stadium Veggie Grill Santa Clara, Calif.

24 Kimchee Conquers Cocktail Menus

Kimchee Bloody Mary with kimchee brine and kimchee garnish Insa Brooklyn, N.Y.

25 Japanese Crossover: Emerging Blends

Togarashi Edamame Tokyo Supergreens with Lazy Dog Restaurant & Bar Red chile, Just Salad Dried fish, orange peel, sesame, seeds, seaweed

26 And Creative Condiments Asia Pear Miso Salad with Seared Tataki Salad miso pear with vinaigrette The Peached Tortilla The Factory Austin, Texas

27 Chinese Crossover: +3.4% “General Tsoification”

General Tso FAQ • American-made • Hunan-influenced • Sweet and spicy • Has Facebook page and movie General Tso Chicken Wings Atlantic Social Brooklyn, N.Y.

Source: Technomic Ignite menu data; Bon Appetit Magazine 28 And Creative Kung Pao

Kung Pao FAQ • American import • Sichuan origin • Hot and spicy • Has peanuts

Kung Pao Dragon Rolls P.F. Chang’s

29 Beyond 2020 Crossing Borders

Chinese/Japanese Thai/Vietnamese Korean Indian Southeast Asian

30 Condiments and +63.6% two-year predicted operator Ripe for Crossover penetration growth

Chile Crisp Yuzukosho

Duck Japanese Chicken Kushiyaki Gramercy Tavern Eventide Spoken English New York City and Portland, Maine Washington, D.C.

Source: Technomic Predictive 31 Ramen 2021: +14.3% two-year predicted Mazemen operator penetration growth

• No-broth ramen • Customizable • Year-round applications

Steak Mazemen Niche New York City

Source: Technomic Predictive 32 Cocktails Go Asian Ume Sea Veggies Ube

+11.1%

Ume Migos Siren’s Call with squid Purple Drank The Brilliant Ox ink and seaweed Irenia Honolulu Apotheke Santa Ana, Calif. New York City

Source: Technomic Ignite menu data 33 Japanese and Chinese Spirits

Shochu Baijiu Japanese Whiskey

Chains are most likely to have added Japanese whiskey and flavored whiskey (both 59%) in the past year

Cardamom Sichuan Spritz Grapefruit Spritz Glady’s Nunu Brooklyn, N.Y. Philadelphia

Source: Technomic Behind the Bar Insights 34 Menus 2020 Agenda Health Asian Middle Eastern The Next Big Thing

35 Middle Eastern: Einat 2020 and Beyond Admony

Look to Levant • Chef advocates, influencers • Craveable, healthful food Alon Shaya • Accessible ingredients • Foodie buzz • Geopolitics Michael Solomonov

36 Continue to Conquer U.S. Menus

Chickpea Ice Cream Little Bean Portland, Ore. • Dairy-free • -free • Gluten-free

37 Chickpeas 3.0: Just Add Chocolate Chocolate SAJJ Mediterranean • Chickpeas • • Cocoa powder • Chocolate-hazelnut • Maple syrup • • -chip dippers

38 In with the Times: Versatile, Go-To

Fried Empellon New York City • Toum • Labneh • Cucumber • Dill

39 Toum Ready for Its Consumer Closeup

Easy to Make, Easy to Like • • Lemon juice • oil •

Better Homes & Gardens April 2019

40 Other Condiments Lighten, Brighten Dishes

Baked Za’atar Chicken with s’chug Salad Zoës Kitchen Starbucks Hot pepper, Green , garlic, sesame, cilantro

41 Sticking with It: a Win-Win-Win

Kebob Two Ways Zov’s Irvine, Calif. • Angus beef tenderloin • Marinated chicken breast • Jasmine • -cucumber salad • -mint sauce

42 And Now a Word About

• Fresh vegetables • Light, bright and versatile • through dinner

43 Beyond 2020 Looking Eastward

Menemen Turkish egg and tomato Syrian dip dish Ezme Turkish tomato-based mezze Sekanjabin Urfa Iranian honey Turkish dried chile drink pepper Yemeni spice mixture

44 Heat, Spice and Everything Nice

Urfa Hawaij +100% two-year predicted operator penetration growth

Eggplant Menemen Kasata Origin Story Golda Balaboosta Saba Brooklyn, N.Y New York City New Orleans

Source: Technomic Predictive 45 Familiar Flavors in New Formats

Muhammara +100% two-year Molasses predicted operator penetration growth

Egg Sandwich Sunchokes + Scallop Crudo Golda Hello Sailor Brooklyn, N.Y. Cornelius, N.C. Los Angeles

Source: Technomic Predictive 46 Beverage Inspirations

Sekanjabin

Sekanjabin Martini Burnt Offerings Sofreh Saba Brooklyn, N.Y. New Orleans

47 Levantine Balkan

Turkey

48 Balkan Flavors Seeing Momentum

Lovage +100% two-year predicted operator penetration growth

Roasted Oysters Pide Bourguignon Balkan Treat Box Oran Mor Webster Groves, Mo. Nantucket, Mass.

Source: Technomic Predictive 49 Menus 2020 Agenda Health Asian Middle Eastern The Next Big Thing

50 Next Big Thing: 2020 and Beyond Inside Voices: Kids Menus Ready for Refresh • 80% of Millennials will be parents by 2026 • Kids menu items jumped 15.4% in the past five years • Key: not all kids are created equal − Age − At-home habits − Ethnicity − Parental attitudes

Sources: Technomic 2018 Generational Consumer Trend Report; Technomic Ignite menu data 51 McBetter Chicken: Reformulated McNuggets

McDonald’s Moved Out Ahead • Removed antibiotics • Removed artificial ingredients • Debuted during 2016 Olympics

52 No Kidding Around With Picky Eaters

Fager’s Island Restaurant & Bar Ocean City, Md. • Appeals to kids • And their parents

53 Honey, Who Shrunk Kids Menu Items?

Chicken Broccoli Kid-Sized Green Salad with Bowl Spud Chicken

54 CBD Mania: Beverages in the Weeds

What Is It? • -derived • Relaxant, not hallucinogen • Legality varies by state, city • No research on effects

CBD-Enhanced • Beverages likely point of entry Alfred • #1 drink trend Los Angeles

Source: 2019 National Restaurant Association’s What’s Hot Survey 55 Dishes Going Up in Smoke: #2 Food Trend in 2019

Chocolate Birthday Cake Doughnut Astro Doughnuts & Fried Chicken • CBD-infused buttercream frosting • 60 milligrams of CBD per doughnut

Source: 2019 National Restaurant Association’s What’s Hot Survey 56 CBD Presents Myriad Strategic Challenges

Impact on traffic Impact on bar sales Impact on liability Impact on menu R&D • Procurement • Policing Rocky Mountain High CheeseBurger Impact on image Delight with CBD Carl’s Jr. (Denver only)

Source: 2019 National Restaurant Association’s What’s Hot Survey 57 Beyond 2020 The Next…Rosé

Lambrusco Garden Orange Natural Wine Rossoblu Aldi Los Angeles U.K. only +27%

Source: Technomic Ignite menu data 58 The Next…Gochujang

Chile Pilacca Crisp Italy China Chamoy Mexico Filfel Philippines Chuma Jaew Libya Bong Laos

59 The Next…Avocado Toast

Katsu Egg Sando Iberico Katsu Sando Fried Chicken Katsu Shake Shack Ferris Momonoki New York City Atlanta

60 The Next…Sparkle, Butterfly Glitter and Rainbow Flower

The Spirit Sage with butterfly pea flower gin True Laurel San Francisco

61 High Times Ahead… Beyond CBD Hi-Fi Hops Carbonated THC-infused Lagunitas sparkling drinks only California Dreamin’ California only

62 Menus 2020 and Beyond: Big Finish

Menu changes reflect changing consumer demographics and demands • Healthful, ethnic and social media are hot spots Most operators address through LTOs and specials • Allows for flexibility without disruption Future menu changes are incremental • Possible exception: CBD hubbub

63 As Always, Thanks For All Your Great Work! Enjoy the National Restaurant Association Show 2019 and we’ll see you next year! Contact Info

Nancy Kruse Lizzy Freier The Kruse Company Technomic, Inc. [email protected] [email protected]

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