Menu Forecast: 2020 and Beyond Nancy Kruse, The Kruse Company Lizzy Freier, Technomic, Inc. Menus 2020: Introduction Restaurateurs are bombarded by info, inputs Challenge: Sort through hype and hoopla Opportunity: Identify foods and flavors with appeal Objective: Put trends to work in your operation for your customers and your bottom line 2 Menu Size Relatively Stable; Deeper Dive Reveals Volatility Five-year item count change Add-On Kids Menu Adult Beverage Nonalcohol Side +32.5% +15.4% 4.3% Beverage +3.2% +3.3% Overall -1.2% Dessert Entree Appetizer Senior Menu -0.6% -3.4% -3.7% -12.2% Source: Technomic Ignite menu data 3 Action Shifts to LTOs, Specials and Add-Ons 23 Entree 18 Appetizer Categories Categories Five-Year LTO Change +63.9% 3 6 YOY YOY Source: Technomic Ignite menu data 4 Menus 2020 Agenda Health Asian Middle Eastern The Next Big Thing 5 Healthful: 9% 14% 2020 and Beyond 7% “I’m eating more food because of its 20% specific nutritional 20% benefits than I did two years ago.” Agree completely Agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree 30% Disagree Disagree completely Source: Technomic 2018 Healthy Eating Consumer Trend Report 6 Trendy Diet Plans Fuel New Dishes Options: • Paleo 38% of • Keto consumers would try • Whole 30 • Vegetarian • Gluten-Free Source: Technomic 2018 Healthy Eating Consumer Trend Report 7 Gluten-Free Still Trending? Yes, But So Are Good Grains Panera reveals whole-grain content of breads • Clarify exact whole-grain content • Avoid misleading labeling BBQ Chicken on Whole Grain Flatbread 8 Dining Law of Physics: Equal, Opposite Reaction Spaghetti Sandwich Better Luck Tomorrow Austin, Texas • Brunch Menu • Spaghetti • Burrata • Parmesan-Crusted Texas Toast 9 Moo-Less Milks: Nuts, Grains, Vegetables… Starbucks adds oat milk at Reserve, Princi locations 10 …And Everything but the Cow Chocolate Hazelnut Peanut Muscovado Truffle with cashew Milk Shooter milk soft serve State Bird Provisions 16 Handles San Francisco 11 Has Cauliflower Lost Its Mojo? Earth Angel Cocktail Mushroom Brûlée with mushroom juice Signature Slinger with ground porcinis and garnish blended burger Timna Birds & Bees Sonic Drive-In New York City Los Angeles 12 Update from the QSR Front: Cleaner Foods Initiatives Wendy’s Announces Major Advancement in Beef Sourcing • Cattle care • Food safety • Antibiotic use • Sustainability 37% of consumers say “USDA-certified” is the most Peppercorn Mushroom Melt appealing claim for beef Source: Technomic 2019 Center of the Plate: Beef & Pork Consumer Trend Report 13 Beyond 2020 All Natural, All The Time Functional Natural Remedies Enhancements 67% of consumers would be more likely to buy food or drink with functional benefits 32% would pay more for it Source: Technomic 2018 Healthy Eating Consumer Trend Report 14 Physical, Mental and Emotional Health Dandelion Herbal “Coffee” Surf & Turf with CBD Bikini Smoothie with chaga mushroom, ghee bearnaise with collagen and MCT oil Adriaen Block Honey Hi Protein Bar Astoria, N.Y. Los Angeles +300% Source: Technomic Ignite menu data 15 Chocolate Brown Butter Pork Beef High ABV Egg Sugar/Sugar White Tried and True Healthful Tease Panela/Plant- Plant-Based Low ABV/ Carob Based Sugar Ghee Jackfruit Imitations Nonalcohol Aquafaba Source: Technomic Predictive 16 Plant-Based Meat… King’s Oatmeal with coconut bacon Impossible Nachos Sunrise Memphis Arooga’s Grille House & Sports Bar Memphis, Tenn. 58% of consumers are more willing to buy items That’s Not Bacon! That’s Not Beef! described as “plant- based” Source: Technomic 2018 Healthy Eating Consumer Trend Report 17 …And Plant-Based Seafood, Egg and More Just Pepper and Crab Cakes with Egg with mung hearts of palm bean egg Gracias Madre Clover Food Lab West Hollywood, Calif. 26% of consumers are willing to pay more for items That’s Not Egg! that are “plant-based” That’s Not Seafood! Source: Technomic 2018 Healthy Eating Consumer Trend Report 18 Mocktails Get Disguised The Herbal with housemade Vegetal with Green Earth Farm spiced syrup Seedlip Garden with verjus Nancy’s Hustle Corrida Cindy’s Chicago Houston Boulder, Colo. +110% Seedlip Source: Infegy 19 Menus 2020 Agenda Health Asian Middle Eastern The Next Big Thing 20 Asian: Chinese 66% 20% 7% 7% 2020 and Beyond Japanese 50% 12% 25% 12% “Which best Thai 43% 9% 30% 18% describes your attitude toward Korean 36% 8% 36% 20% these cuisines?” Indian 34% 7% 33% 26% Vietnamese 28% 6% 41% 24% Tried it and like it, and it is unique/exciting Tried it and like it, but not unique/exciting Haven't tried it, but would like to, sounds good Don't like it or wouldn't consider trying it Source: Technomic 2018 Ethnic Food & Beverage Consumer Trend Report 21 Trending Cuisines Are Ripe for Riffing General Tso’s Burger with General K-BBQ Burger Ramen Burger with Tso’s sauce with Kimcheese ramen noodle bun Dogfish Alehouse Plan Check Red Robin Fairfax, Va. Los Angeles 22 +42.9% Korean Crossover: in add-ons Kimchee Variations Sister-in-Law Sandwich BB Street Corn with with dill kimchee kimchee remoulade Steingold’s of Chicago Ba Bellies Chicago Peachtree Corners, Ga. Source: Technomic Ignite menu data 23 And Creative Condiments Korean Bibimbap Bowl Koreatown Tacos with gochujang aioli with gochujang sauce Levi’s Stadium Veggie Grill Santa Clara, Calif. 24 Kimchee Conquers Cocktail Menus Kimchee Bloody Mary with kimchee brine and kimchee garnish Insa Brooklyn, N.Y. 25 Japanese Crossover: Emerging Spice Blends Togarashi Edamame Tokyo Supergreens Salad Beans with furikake Lazy Dog Restaurant & Bar Red chile, Just Salad Dried fish, orange peel, sesame sesame, seeds, ginger seaweed 26 And Creative Condiments Asia Pear Miso Salad with Seared Tuna Tataki Salad miso pear vinaigrette with wasabi vinaigrette The Peached Tortilla The Cheesecake Factory Austin, Texas 27 Chinese Crossover: +3.4% “General Tsoification” General Tso FAQ • American-made • Hunan-influenced • Sweet and spicy • Has Facebook page and movie General Tso Chicken Wings Atlantic Social Brooklyn, N.Y. Source: Technomic Ignite menu data; Bon Appetit Magazine 28 And Creative Kung Pao Kung Pao FAQ • American import • Sichuan origin • Hot and spicy • Has peanuts Kung Pao Dragon Rolls P.F. Chang’s 29 Beyond 2020 Crossing Borders Chinese/Japanese Thai/Vietnamese Korean Indian Southeast Asian 30 Condiments and Seasonings +63.6% two-year predicted operator Ripe for Crossover penetration growth Chile Crisp Gomashio Yuzukosho Duck Meatballs Japanese Fried Chicken Chicken Kushiyaki Gramercy Tavern Eventide Spoken English New York City Boston and Portland, Maine Washington, D.C. Source: Technomic Predictive 31 Ramen 2021: +14.3% two-year predicted Mazemen operator penetration growth • No-broth ramen • Customizable • Year-round applications Steak Mazemen Niche New York City Source: Technomic Predictive 32 Cocktails Go Asian Ume Sea Veggies Ube +11.1% Ume Migos Siren’s Call with squid Purple Drank The Brilliant Ox ink and seaweed Irenia Honolulu Apotheke Santa Ana, Calif. New York City Source: Technomic Ignite menu data 33 Japanese and Chinese Spirits Shochu Baijiu Japanese Whiskey Chains are most likely to have added Japanese whiskey and flavored whiskey (both 59%) in the past year Cardamom Sichuan Spritz Grapefruit Spritz Glady’s Nunu Brooklyn, N.Y. Philadelphia Source: Technomic Behind the Bar Insights 34 Menus 2020 Agenda Health Asian Middle Eastern The Next Big Thing 35 Middle Eastern: Einat 2020 and Beyond Admony Look to Levant • Chef advocates, influencers • Craveable, healthful food Alon Shaya • Accessible ingredients • Foodie buzz • Geopolitics Michael Solomonov 36 Chickpeas Continue to Conquer U.S. Menus Chickpea Ice Cream Little Bean Portland, Ore. • Dairy-free • Nut-free • Gluten-free 37 Chickpeas 3.0: Just Add Chocolate Chocolate Hummus SAJJ Mediterranean • Chickpeas • Tahini • Cocoa powder • Chocolate-hazelnut spread • Maple syrup • Vanilla • Cinnamon-chip dippers 38 In Toum with the Times: Versatile, Go-To Condiment Fried Chicken Sandwich Empellon Al Pastor New York City • Toum • Labneh • Cucumber • Dill 39 Toum Ready for Its Consumer Closeup Easy to Make, Easy to Like • Garlic • Lemon juice • Olive oil • Salt Better Homes & Gardens April 2019 40 Other Condiments Lighten, Brighten Dishes Baked Falafel Za’atar Chicken Pita with s’chug Salad Zoës Kitchen Starbucks Hot pepper, Green herbs, garlic, sesame, cilantro olive oil 41 Sticking with It: Kebabs a Win-Win-Win Kebob Two Ways Zov’s Irvine, Calif. • Angus beef tenderloin • Marinated chicken breast • Jasmine rice pilaf • Tomato-cucumber salad • Yogurt-mint sauce 42 And Now a Word About Israeli Salad • Fresh vegetables • Light, bright and versatile • Breakfast through dinner 43 Beyond 2020 Looking Eastward Menemen Muhammara Turkish egg and tomato Syrian dip dish Ezme Turkish tomato-based mezze Sekanjabin Urfa Iranian honey Turkish dried chile vinegar drink pepper Hawaij Yemeni spice mixture 44 Heat, Spice and Everything Nice Urfa Hawaij Baharat +100% two-year predicted operator penetration growth Eggplant Menemen Kasata Origin Story Golda Balaboosta Saba Brooklyn, N.Y New York City New Orleans Source: Technomic Predictive 45 Familiar Flavors in New Formats Muhammara Schmaltz +100% Pomegranate two-year Molasses predicted operator penetration growth Egg Sandwich Sunchokes + Caviar Scallop Crudo Golda Hello Sailor Bavel Brooklyn, N.Y. Cornelius, N.C. Los Angeles Source: Technomic Predictive 46 Beverage Inspirations Sekanjabin Jallab Sekanjabin Martini Burnt Offerings Sofreh Saba Brooklyn, N.Y. New Orleans 47 Levantine Balkan Turkey 48 Balkan Flavors Seeing Momentum Lovage