Portuguese Legislative Election 2015: the Search for Governability

: SPECIAL REPORT Portuguese Legislative Election 2015: the search for governability Lisbon, october 2015 BARCELONA BOGOTÁ BUENOS AIRES LIMA LISBOA MADRID MÉXICO MIAMI PANAMÁ QUITO RIO J SÃO PAULO SANTIAGO STO DOMINGO PORTUGUESE LEGISLATIVE ELECTION 2015: THE SEARCH FOR GOVERNABILITY 1. THE 5 KEY IDEAS REGARDING THE ELECTION 1. On the election night, Pedro Passos Coelho said that he wan- 1. THE 5 KEY IDEAS REGARDING THE ELECTION ted to advance in the forming of the government through the centre-right coalition Portugal à Frente (PàF: PSD+CDS/PP), on 2. THE ELECTIONS ANALYZED BY the basis of the legislative election which he won, obtaining a EXPERTS: JAIME NOGUEIRA relative majority. This scenario requires a consensus and will PINTO AND ANDRÉ MACEDO make it necessary to seek alliances with other parties, both to 3. BIOGRAPHY OF THE PRIME make the government programme viable and for the remaining MINISTER issues. Thus the door has been opened to negotiations during 4. OTHER MAIN ACTORS the 13th presidency. Another aspect to be highlighted is the fact AUTHORS that, within the group of countries that were subject to financial intervention, Portugal was the only one where the ruling parties won the election. More specifically, the Coalition won, but it lost 25 MPS in the National Assembly of the Republic with respect to the 2011 Legislative Election, though dropping from 129 to 104. 2. The second largest party PS (Partido Socialista), was the main loser in the election night, remaining six points behind the coalition. Even though the PS has lost the election, its number of MPs increased with respect to 2011, from 74 to 85. After this defeat, the PS will hold a congress to define the party strategy and leader- ship, in principle in January 2016. 3. The Bloco de Esquerda (BE), which until now had been the four- th political force, was the great surprise on the election night, becoming the third most voted party in Portugal, surpassing the Portuguese Communist Party, both in terms of votes and of MPs. It had 10.22 % of votes, corresponding to 19 MPs, thus more than doubling its 2011 result, when it obtained 8 MPs in the National Assembly. 4. There is a new party with MPs in the National Assembly - this was the second surprise of the night of October 4th: Its name is PAN - Pessoas-Animais-Natureza (People-Animals-Nature) - and it was created in 2009, first took part in the 2011 Legislative Elec- tion, and has now obtained its first MP in 2015. Oddly enough, it was the only small party capable of achieving this feat, going from 1.04 % of votes to 1.39 %, enough to make it possible to elect an MP. 5. At the end of October 6, the President of the Republic welcomed the leader of the coalition PàF and subsequently he informed the country that Pedro Passos Coelho was given the task of dialo- guing with the remaining political parties, in particular with PS, the second most voted, to reach an agreement and form a stable and lasting government. 2 PORTUGUESE LEGISLATIVE ELECTION 2015: THE SEARCH FOR GOVERNABILITY The Head of State, Cavaco Silva, This balance sheet takes place claims that this is “the time for ten days after the electoral act, commitment” necessary among therefore from 14 October. For the different parties. Therefore example in 2009 the government he maintains his call for matu- took office 29 days after the elec- “Between the end of rity and capacity for dialogue of tions and in 2011 the government October and beginning the parties, essential in demo- took office 16 days later. cratic regimes, in order to assure of November a formed political stability for Portugal Between the end of October and ready to rule and financial stability for credi- and beginning of November a government should be tors. During his communication formed and ready to rule govern- the night of October 6 he also ment should be established. established” highlighted the necessity for the future government to respect 2. THE ELECTIONS ANALY- international commitments, ZED BY EXPERTS: JAIME specifically the membership NOGUEIRA PINTO AND of NATO, European Union and ANDRÉ MACEDO Eurozone. JAIME NOGUEIRA PINTO: THE The President of the Republic LEGISLATIVE ELECTION IN POR- can not appoint the Prime Mi- TUGAL - OUTCOME AND CONSE- nister before the publication of QUENCES the official results in the Diário da República, which happens The legislative election of 4 after the final balance sheet of October led to surprises and con- the results. tradictions and posed questions about Portugal's governability. The Facts: The first surprise, Figure 1: Percentage of votes in 2015 and 2011 after four years of hard austerity, the centre-right coalition, Portu- gal à Frente (PàF), constituted by the parties PSD and CDS, hea- PS ded by Passos Coelho and Paulo 32,38% Portas. It has become the most voted option, with 38 % of votes and 104 of the 230 Parliament PàF PS seats (even before the allocation BE (PSD + CDS) 28,05% of the four Emigration seats). 38,55% 10,22% PSD Although the surveys in recent 38,66% CDS/PP CDU weeks had reflected this trend, it 11,71% 8,27% PPD/PSD had not existed at the beginning PCP/PEV PS 7,9% PAN of the summer. The election 1,39% CDS/PP 2015 BE 5,17% campaign made all the differen- ce. The Socialist Party (PS), with 2015 2011 2011 2015 PCP/PEV about 32.4% of votes and 85 seats, BE Source: 2015: SIC online / 2011: CNE – Comissão Nacional de Eleições did much worse than expected. 3 PORTUGUESE LEGISLATIVE ELECTION 2015: THE SEARCH FOR GOVERNABILITY The PS is a party with a social- It also won due to the central democrat and pro-European tra- role of its leaders, Catarina dition, sometimes with a "leftist" Martins and Mariana Mortágua. rhetoric. With more than 10 % of votes, almost 550,000 voters, it achieved In the campaign, its leader, its best results ever, doubling the António Costa, the former number of votes and obtaining Chairman of the Lisbon City 19 seats in Parliament (it pre- Council, taking the Centre-Left viously had 8). for granted, made excessive use of rhetoric to capture the useful This was bad for the PS, but vote from the Left. But he failed. also for the PCP, the Portuguese Another surprise was the Bloco Communist Party, which took de Esquerda, a party founded part in the election as part of the in 2000 by Trotskyists, radical CDU coalition, with the Green Marxists, and dissidents from Party. The PCP is an orthodox the Portuguese Communist Marxist party which, for the first Party. The BE follows a utopian, time, was surpassed by the radi- revolutionary line, anti-Europe cal Left; it has always followed a and anti-globalisation, similar to line inspired in Soviet Leninism, Podemos and Syriza. Its success and managed to escape the lays in obtaining the vote from fate of Communist parties in the ideological Left, leading it Italy, France, and Spain. Despite away from the "useful vote" for lagging behind the BE (a sym- the PS, which, being pro-Euro- bolic humiliation), it gained one pe, would necessarily follow an MP, from 16 to 17, and obtained identical policy to that of the almost 8,3 % of votes. PSD-CDS coalition. The Consequences: The outcome Figure 2: Number of MPs in 2015 and 2011 has posed serious problems for governability, which will depend both on the winners and on the losers. This is because the PS winner - the PàF coalition - lost 85 (in terms of votes and seats with respect of the 2011 election), and the losers increased the votes PàF PS and seats. The coalition is in a (PSD + CDS) 74 minority with respect to a poten- 104 BE PSD 19 tial coalition of all the other par- 108 ties - PS, BE, and CDU. But this CDS/PP CDU would be aPPD/PSD negative coalition, as 24 17 the PS's entire tradition is anti- PS PCP/PEV Frente Popular and Communists 16 PAN 1 BE 8 will never beCDS/PP part of a PS gover- 2015 2011 2011 2015 nment. The BE might do so, and the CDU mightPCP/PEV facilitate it in Source: 2015: SIC online / 2011: CNE – Comissão Nacional de Eleições Parliament,BE but this would not Fonte: 2015: SIC online /2011: CNE-Comissão Nacional de Eleições 4 PORTUGUESE LEGISLATIVE ELECTION 2015: THE SEARCH FOR GOVERNABILITY only go against tradition in the demanded a Congress. For this PS, but also against the wishes reason, Costa is a hostage to fortu- of most of their voters - and An- ne and to its unknowns. “This scepticism is tónio Costa is not a leader who is fond of breaks with tradition. The radical Left - BE and PCP - also obvious in the have the highest number of MPs abstention rate - at 43%, In any case, after the aggressive- in many legislative terms, with the highest percentage ness displayed during the cam- almost 20 % of the votes, which, ever in a Legislative paign against the coalition, it will added to small Leftists parties, not be easy for the PS to reach amount to almost 25 %. It benefi- Election” a "central block" commitment, ted from the fact that in Greece, supporting the PSD-CDS gover- Tsipras's Left finally followed nment, even if only on a circums- the policy dictated by the Troika, tantial basis. which generated more scepticism regarding the electoral contract in It is only natural for President countries whose European Union Cavaco Silva to encourage Passos and Euro Zone membership and Coelho to form the government, dependence on the Debt cons- but this government will remain train their sovereignty.

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