9 November 2020 ISSN: 2560-1628 2020 No. 37 WORKING PAPER Glimpses at the Possibilities and Challenges in a Post-Pandemic Europe: From a Portuguese Perspective Cristina Zhou Kiadó: Kína-KKE Intézet Nonprofit Kft. Szerkesztésért felelős személy: Chen Xin Kiadásért felelős személy: Wu Baiyi 1052 Budapest Petőfi Sándor utca 11. +36 1 5858 690 [email protected] china-cee.eu Glimpses at the Possibilities and Challenges in a Post-Pandemic Europe: From a Portuguese Perspective Cristina Zhou University of Coimbra Abstract Moving into a next phase of the coronavirus crisis, with an eased lockdown restriction to allow economies to reopen, the EU is showing steady and positive signs of recovery, having recently injected a significant stimulus to its state-members. Although uncertainties are still lurking, aggravated by a serious second wave of infection in the main urban centers, as well as by an increasing weariness of the general public, after months of strict control. Undoubtedly, the coming Winter will be extremely important for combat against the pandemic. Meanwhile, it is a time to rethink and to readjust. In this paper, firstly, we will observe Portugal’s plan to tackle the social and economic problems caused by this global health crisis, underlining its valuable insights. Secondly, we will present, with first-hand information, the main ideas and inspirations encountered by the Chinese community in Portugal, facing the challenges and hope of a post-pandemic world. In the end, we propose to review the Sino-Portuguese relations during the pandemic, up until now, stressing the obstacles and ambiguities, as well as some potential opportunities. I. Portugal’s vision and plan: between realism and futurism Located in the southwestern extremity of the European Continent, Portugal, whose economy has been strongly affected by the health crisis, is arguably not among the countries most severely hit by the pandemic, such as Italy and Spain. Looking back at Portugal’s reaction to the pandemic from the beginning of this year up until now (mid-October), we can basically divide its respondence in four phases: 1. Media coverage (January to February); 2. Strict control (March to April); 3. Gradual relaxation (May to August); 4. Dealing with a second wave (September to October). During the first stage, Portugal, like other European countries, gave constant media coverage concerning the evolution of the COVID-19 epidemy in China. In early February, Portugal evacuated its citizens from Wuhan. Meanwhile, clusters of cases were also detected in 1 Italy, especially in Lombardy and Veneto, regions with vibrant commercial activities and directly connected with Portugal by frequent flights. On 2nd March, Portugal confirmed its first two cases: one 60-year-old doctor returned from his holidays in Northern Italy, one 33-year-old worker who had been in Valencia, Spain. Facing the drastic spreading of the cases, Portugal was reasonably prompt to take actions: on 15th March, circulation on the frontier with Spain was cut, allowing only cross-frontier workers and goods to pass; on 18th March, the state of emergency was declared. Only on 2nd May was it eased to a state of calamity. During March and April, compared with neighboring Spain, Portugal managed to control the death tolls of the pandemic with significantly more success. This relative victory earned Portugal a general admiration of international society. For instance, both “The New York Times” and “Der Spiegel” reported and applauded Portugal’s success, giving this phenomenon an enviable name of “Portuguese Miracle”. However, during the months of May and June, the “Portuguese Miracle” seemed to evanescent. As was pointed out by the commentator and former Minister of Foreign Affairs Paulo Portas, Portugal was left behind by most EU countries, in its failure of preparing a COVID-tracking application. Continental Portugal was considered as unsafe (archipelagos Madeira and Azores remain on the list of safe destinations) by the British government and was excluded from the UK air corridor. As a country that relies heavily on seasonal business such as tourism, Portugal was deeply affected by this exclusion, since it has been the destination of more than 2.5 million British citizens, which accounted for almost 20% overnight stays from foreign visitors (in 2019). Only during the period from 20th August to 10th September did the British Government temporarily lifted the exclusion, allowing UK residents flying from Portugal not to comply with a 14-day-quarantine. As a result of this restriction, in the peak tourist season of August, Algarve, which is traditionally dependent on British visitors, registered a regional hotel occupation as low as 60.5%. Entering in September and facing the threat of a second-wave infections, Portugal declared a state of contingency from 15th September and on, putting forward specific preventive measures, especially for Lisbon and Oporto metropolitan areas, preparing the return of teachers and students for the new school year. However, due to steep surge of new cases, the state of calamity was declared on 14th October. As winter is coming, Portugal is facing another surge of new cases and is liable to enter a new emergency state, which was already being discussed between the Portuguese leaders. According to the DGS daily report on 18th October, Portugal, a country with a population of 10.28 million (2019) and a territory of 92.212 km2, registered a total number of 99,911 2 (which is almost 1% of the population), confirmed cases (1,856 newly confirmed), among which 39,449 in the North, 47,412 in Lisbon metropolitan area, 8,214 in the Central Region, 2,199 in Algarve, 1,991 in Alentejo, 318 in Azores and 328 in Madeira; a total number of 59,000 recovered cases, 2,181 deaths; the recovery rate is around 59.1% and the fatality rate around 2.2%. Regarding the actual situation, please see the table below. DGS latest COVID-19 report: 18/10/2020 Total confirmed cases 99,911 Active cases 38,730 Total cases (men) 45,484 Total cases (women) 54,427 Total deaths (men) 1,100 Total deaths (women) 1,081 Under surveillance 54,851 Recovered 59,000 Deaths 2,181 Currently admitted to hospital 1,086 Currently admitted to ICU 155 Having gathered a chronological and updated view of the country under the impact of COVID-19 pandemic, we are going to take a close look at Portugal’s plan to recover its economy. The task is definitely huge: according to European Stability Mechanism (ESM), in the first months of 2020, Portugal’s economy deteriorated greatly due to the negative influence of the pandemic; uncertainties are still high, for the duration and magnitude of the impact are still unsure, neither can we speculate the moment and speed of recovery. In the last year, ESM recorded a deacceleration of Portugal’s GDP increasement: 2.2% in 2019, compared to 2.6% in 2018. As a country that has finally recovered from the 2008 financial crisis, albeit still has to tackle the severe problem of “non-performing loans”, Portugal has to be extremely cautious and creative to elaborate and execute its plan, making full use of the EU funding for post-pandemic recovery (about 15.3 billion euro) as well as EU loans on favorable terms (5.9 billion euro of 3 support within the EU framework of “SURE”, a mechanism to help member states preserve jobs). In this context, according to Minister of Foreign Affairs Augusto Santos Silva, Portuguese government wanted to be one of the first countries to submit the recovery plan to EU Commission, as early as mid-October. It is interesting to note, in our opinion, that the tremendous task of drafting a full-range recovery plan was conferred on one person only: by invitation of the Portuguese government, António Costa Silva delineated, in July, his “Strategic Vision for the Economic Recovery Plan of Portugal 2020-2030” (“Visão Estratégica para o Plano de Recuperação Económica de Portugal 2020-2030” in Portuguese); and this “strategic vision” was open for public discussion in August. António Costa Silva is an Angola-born, 68- year-old petroleum engineer, alumnus of Imperial College in the UK, alumnus and professor at the School of Engineering and Technology of the University of Lisbon (Alma-Mater of António Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations), former executive director of the Compagnie Générale de Géophysique (CGG) and former CEO of Partex Oil and Gas – property of the Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation (FCG) until 2019 (now belongs to the Thai state-owned enterprise PTTEP). It is worth noting that the highly lucrative Partex Oil and Gas was sold to PTTEP in 2019 in alignment with “the vision for a sustainable future which FCG shares with other great international foundations”. Not surprisingly, the same concern for a “sustainable future” is omnipresent in Costa Silva’s plan, in which the author envisaged a “re- industrialization” for Portugal, based on decarbonization and “electrification”. In this ambitious and futuristic plan, the author also advocates for a reorientation of foreign policy in Portugal, as well as in Europe, in terms of avoiding the crossfires of the ever fierce competition between the USA and China, while constructing a “balancing platform” with other “great democracies as Canada, India, Japan and Australia” (Silva, 2020:9). It is interesting to observe the political dimension of this plan for economic recovery, which, in our opinion, is making its impact upon Portugal’s policy making in the time being, as well as in the near future. Let us take a closer examination at Costa Silva’s proposal for economic recovery after the pandemic. The author begins by admitting the certainty of a profound and all-involving global post-pandemic recession, which implicates a reorganization of society and individual life-style, opening up for a transformation of national economics, taking into account the limits of the natural resources.