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Memo 67 SKA Demonstrators, 2005 Assessment by the Engineering Working Group

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Memo 67 SKA Demonstrators, 2005 Assessment by the Engineering Working Group Memo 67 SKA Demonstrators, 2005 Assessment by the Engineering Working Group P. J. Hall (EWG Chair), On Behalf of the Group 01/12/05 www.skatelescope.org/pages/page_memos.htm 2 Table of Contents Section Page Summary Remarks 3 Appendix 1 – Reviews of 2005 SKA Demonstrator Updates Chinese Demonstrator (FAST) 10 Canadian Demonstrator (CLAR) 13 US Demonstrators (ATA, DSAN) 16 European Demonstrator (EMBRACE) 19 South African Demonstrator (KAT) 22 Appendix 2 – Guidelines for Reviewers 29 Appendix 3 – SKA Demonstrator Updates for 2005 33 (PDF documents Appended as Submitted) 3 SKA Demonstrators – Summary Remarks Peter Hall, 1 December 2005 1. Introduction The EWG has considered the five SKA demonstrator submissions received. In four cases these submissions were brief updates of previous (2004) detailed expositions. However, an initial outline of the Karoo Array Telescope (KAT) was received from the South African SKA Consortium and the EWG devoted extra effort to a more thorough assessment of this project. No demonstrator updates were received from Australia or India although the Australian SKA Consortium submitted a background report in the form of the statutory annual report for their Major National Research Facility program (available at http://www.atnf.csiro.au/projects/mnrf2001/Astronomy_MNRF_0405.pdf). While this report does not contain detailed schedule information for the proposed Extended New Technology Demonstrator (xNTD) project, it does indicate that the SKA Molonglo Prototype (SKAMP) program is still largely on track. However, additional enquiries indicate that SKAMP development beyond mid-2007 still depends on as yet uncertain funding. It should also be mentioned that KAT and xNTD are very similar instruments and much of the EWG commentary is likely to apply to both projects. As in 2004, detailed individual demonstrator reviews have been produced by individual EWG members and moderated during subsequent e-mail discussions. Individual reviews, together with original review guidelines, are contained in Appendices 1 and 2 of this document while, for reference, the 2005 demonstrator submissions are included as Appendix 3. 2. Basis of Assessment Following the 2005 reporting format, the EWG has also reviewed the numerical scores awarded to various projects. While a detailed explanation of the scoring is contained in the 2004 report the essence of the evaluation relates to the ability of the demonstrator project, as defined in the written submission, to reach a critical milestone by the end of 2008. That milestone is taken as the point at which the SKA project might, with good judgement, initiate large-scale technology production, at least on a scale sufficient for a 5-10% Phase 1 SKA. Table 1 summarizes the 2005 scoring. Grey shaded columns show demonstrators for which no detailed 2005 update was received. Positive changes to 2004 scores are indicated by blue cells while changes to lower scores, or to uncertain values, are indicated by red cells. 4 Table 1 – EWG 2005 Assessment of SKA Demonstrators FAST LAR SKAMP PPD USSKA SKADS/ KAT (2004) (2004) EMBRACE Frequency range < 5 GHz < 1.8 < 1.4 GHz < 5 0.1 – 25 < 1.4 GHz 0.7-1.75 of demonstrator GHz GHz GHz GHz Demonstration of 4 3 2-3 3 (d) 3 3-4 (e) 5 pivotal and/or high-risk technology Demonstration of 4 2 1-2 3-4 2 5 4 cost reduction strategies Demonstration of 3 1 1 2 3 3-4 3 realistic risk management for concept or system Likelihood of 0, 4 (a) 0, 2-3 (b) 0-1(c) 3-4 ? 0 0(f) completion by end of 2008 Likelihood of 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 substantial added knowledge by end of 2006 Realism of 2, 4(a) 3 3 4 ? 4 3(f) project plan (milestones & timescale vs budget and manpower) Definition of 2 5 3 4 ? 5 2 appropriate milestones (suitable for ISPO monitoring) Security of ?, 4(a) ? 3-4 4 ? 5 2-3(g) funding for the project as defined Quality of 3 3 NR NR NR 3 NA responses to EWG 2004 comments 5 Key: 0 Very poor; or very low 1 Poor; or low 2 Average 3 Good; or high 4 Very good; or very high 5 Outstanding; exceptionally high ? Indicates critical funding outcome still unknown NR = no response received; NA = not applicable Notes: a. Higher score refers 30 m ‘demonstrator of demonstrator’ b. Higher score refers to structure unit ‘demonstrator of demonstrator’ c. See Section 1 comments regarding post-2007 funding d. Score is for single FOV feed; would be higher with FPA e. Score for single polarization array, assuming limited-area dual polarization demonstration elsewhere in SKADS f. Based on amended goal of early 2009 “first light” g. Higher score will be given if current funding negotiations are successful 3. Main Outcomes for 2005 There have been several major demonstrator programmatic developments over the past year. These include: • Funding of the European SKA Design Study (SKADS) program, allowing the Aperture Array concept to be taken to the point of astronomical demonstration via the EMBRACE project. A major part of EMBRACE will focus on manufacturing issues and cost reduction techniques. • Extended delay in funding the US Technical Development Project (TDP), a project aimed at demonstrating production readiness of the small dishes and associated components required for the Large N – Small D (LN-SD) concept. With the TDP funding uncertain, demonstration of the SKA LN-SD approach will be done largely via the Allen Telescope Array (ATA) and Deep Space Array Network (DSAN) projects; ratings in Table 1 reflect this change. • Appearance of project plans and first-stage funding for astronomically-capable demonstrators based on the Small Dish – Focal Plane Array (SD-FPA) concept. These instruments are the Karoo Array Telescope (KAT) in South Africa and the Extended New Technology Demonstrator (xNTD) in Australia. Both instruments will complement the ATA and LOFAR as science pathfinders, as well as being 6 key SKA engineering demonstrators. (A funding application for APERTIF, a Westerbork FPA demonstrator project is currently pending). There have been major technical achievements in the last twelve months, including substantial progress towards a 42-dish intermediate stage of the ATA, preparatory electromagnetic design and analysis work for both phased aperture array and focal plane array instruments, and digital signal processing development for stage-1 FPA demonstrators likely to be complete in 2006, Quarter 1. Notwithstanding this progress, the EWG again stresses the need to keep up the pace of phased array demonstrations as this technology remains central to the SKA, figuring prominently in the new Reference Design. For example, in the next year it will be essential to have at least initial astronomical results from the early stages of instruments like KAT and xNTD. Latest timelines for SKA demonstrators, derived from submitted reports, are summarized in Figure 1. It is clear that completion of all major demonstrators will now extend beyond the original completion target of 2008, Q4. In future EWG evaluations the completion milestone will be taken as 2009, Q4, an apparently tractable change bearing in mind that the newly-published SKA project plan has SKA Phase 1 construction starting in 2011. However, the slippage will exacerbate an already worrying problem for the international project. Phase 1 preparatory work needs to start in 2007 and delayed regional demonstrators will restrict the number of experienced engineers available to the international project in its early stages. It is obviously in the interests of the international SKA for the regional demonstrators to be completed as early as possible and for engineering staff to be made available for SKA Phase 1 soon. Two issues concerning developments in the USA and Europe should also be mentioned. First, the EWG appreciates the huge intellectual contribution made by US engineers to the international SKA engineering efforts and the Group underlines the very high quality of engineering science and practice flowing from projects such as the ATA and DSAN. However, both of these projects, while aligned closely with SKA, have other primary aims. Furthermore, the long-term funding situation for both – and for the SKA-specific TDP – is unclear at present. Taken together, these factors account for the EWG’s uncertainty in rating key aspects of the 2006 US demonstrator plan. In the case of Europe, the EWG appreciates the importance of the Aperture Array demonstration. However, with the SKA Reference Design now incorporating the Small Dish – Focal Plane Array concept and indeed the SD-FPA concept being a major part of SKA Phase 1, the EWG sees an imperative for European engineers to link more closely the AA and SD-FPA demonstration programs. While the AA may figure more prominently in a slightly longer-term evolution model for the SKA, it is clearly in the interests of the international project if the substantial European expertise in phased array construction is also available to SKA Phase 1. The EWG notes the international collaboration emerging in the area of SD-FPA concept exposition and demonstration. The Group urges proponents to complete the whitepaper now in draft form (see http://www.jb.man.ac.uk/ska/SD-FPA/index.html) and to 7 strengthen engineering ties between projects such as KAT, xNTD and APERTIF. The EWG looks forward to seeing more detailed specifications for these instruments following initial design and measurement work over the coming months. 4. Concept Risk Assessment As part of the 2004 demonstrator review the EWG also rated the risk involved in developing various concepts for SKA application and, in particular, for possible hybrid SKAs. For this early evaluation the assigned risk rating was “high”, “medium” or “low”. The risk was split into two parts: that associated with reaching the cost goals outlined in the whitepapers, and that attached to reaching stated SKA performance goals.
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