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Advancing Astronomy in the Coming Decade: Opportunities and Challenges

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Advancing Astronomy in the Coming Decade: Opportunities and Challenges Advancing Astronomy in the Coming Decade: Opportunities and Challenges Report of the National Science Foundation Division of Astronomical Sciences Portfolio Review Committee August 14, 2012 2 Table of Contents Table of Contents..............................................................................................................................2 Executive Summary.........................................................................................................................5 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................9 2 Statement of Principles ....................................................................................................... 13 3 Budget Overview and Projections..................................................................................15 3.1 New Worlds, New Horizons Recommendations..............................................20 3.2 Budget forecasts ............................................................................................................21 3.3 Projecting the Status Quo ..........................................................................................23 4 Community Input...................................................................................................................27 5 New Worlds, New Horizons and Technical Capabilities......................................... 29 5.1 Cosmology and Fundamental Physics.................................................................. 30 5.2 Galaxies..............................................................................................................................37 5.3 Stars and Stellar Evolution........................................................................................45 5.4 Planetary Systems and Star Formation ...............................................................53 5.5 Summary of Critical Technical Capabilities .......................................................61 6 Capabilities for the Health of the Profession .............................................................64 6.1 Introduction: U.S. Leadership in Astronomy.....................................................64 6.2 Access to Facilities and Resources......................................................................... 65 6.2.1 Archival astronomical data ..............................................................................66 6.2.2 Telescopes, Facilities, and Laboratories.....................................................66 6.2.3 Astronomical Software.......................................................................................68 6.2.4 Supercomputing Resources and Resources Dedicated to Theory... 68 6.2.5 Grants Funding ...................................................................................................... 69 6.2.6 Critical Capabilities for Access to Facilities and Resources ...............69 6.3 Instrumentation.............................................................................................................69 6.3.1 Critical Capabilities for Instrumentation ...................................................71 6.4 Career support and progression.............................................................................71 6.4.1 Critical Capabilities for Career support and progression ...................74 6.5 Diversity of the Workforce........................................................................................75 6.5.1 Critical Capabilities for Increasing Diversity............................................75 6.6 Astronomy Education and Public Outreach.......................................................75 6.6.1 Critical Capabilities for Education and Public Outreach......................76 3 6.7 Summary of the Critical Capabilities for Health of the Profession ..........76 7 Small-Grants Programs ....................................................................................................... 79 7.1 Research Grants.............................................................................................................80 7.2 Student and Postdoctoral Training ....................................................................... 81 7.3 Workforce Diversity..................................................................................................... 82 8 Mid-Scale Projects and Strategic Investments..........................................................83 9 AST Facilities ...........................................................................................................................91 9.1 Optical & Infrared Facilities......................................................................................91 9.1.1 Overview of OIR Facilities.................................................................................92 9.1.2 Optical and Infrared Facility Recommendations .................................... 98 9.2 Radio, Millimeter, and Submillimeter Facilities............................................ 101 9.2.1 Overview of RMS Facilities............................................................................ 102 9.2.2 Radio, Millimeter and Submillimeter Facility Recommendations 106 9.3 Solar Facilities.............................................................................................................. 109 9.3.1 Overview of Solar Facilities........................................................................... 109 9.3.2 Recommendations for Solar Facilities...................................................... 111 9.4 High Energy AST Facilities ..................................................................................... 114 9.4.1 Atmospheric Čerenkov Telescope Array (ACTA):.............................. 114 9.4.2 High-Energy Recommendations ................................................................. 115 9.5 Inter-wavelength Priorities and Rankings...................................................... 115 10 Recommended AST Portfolios.................................................................................... 118 10.1 Recommendations of Priorities and Budgets.............................................. 118 10.1.1 Balance of Grants and Facilities................................................................ 118 10.1.2 AST Facilities..................................................................................................... 120 10.1.3 Mid-Scale Grants.............................................................................................. 124 10.1.4 Small Grants ...................................................................................................... 125 10.1.5 Quantitative Summary.................................................................................. 126 10.2 Evaluation of Technical Capabilities of the Recommended Portfolios 130 10.3 Evaluation of Health of the Profession Capabilities of the Recommended Portfolios ............................................................................................................ 135 10.4 Impact of the Recommended Portfolios........................................................ 140 11 National Observatories.................................................................................................. 142 11.1 NOAO, Gemini, and the OIR system ................................................................. 142 11.2 NRAO, ALMA, and the RMS system.................................................................. 144 11.3 Observatory Scope.................................................................................................. 145 4 12 Open Skies........................................................................................................................... 147 13 Conclusions......................................................................................................................... 149 13.1 List of Recommendations..................................................................................... 151 14 Appendix A: Committee Process ............................................................................... 155 15 Appendix B: Supporting Documents........................................................................ 158 15.1 AST Portfolio Review Charge to the Committee ........................................ 158 15.2 Committee Membership....................................................................................... 160 15.3 Letter Requesting Facility Long-Range Plans ............................................. 161 15.4 Letter Requesting Community Input .............................................................. 162 15.5 Letter to RMS Directors ........................................................................................ 164 15.6 Letter to ACCORD/OIR Directors...................................................................... 165 16 Appendix C: List of Acronyms..................................................................................... 166 5 Executive Summary The coming decade promises to be a time of impressive progress in astronomy. New technologies and new ideas are advancing the field at a dizzying pace. Many of the most active research topics, from black holes to dark energy to planets beyond our Solar System, have high impact and visibility with the general public. The recent National Academy of Sciences decadal surveys of astronomy and astrophysics (New Worlds, New Horizons, NWNH) and of planetary sciences (Vision
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