THE L.A. EARTHQUAKE SOURCEBOOK

Produced by Richard Koshalek and Mariana Amatullo 2/3

Copyright © 2008 Designmatters at Southern California earthquake maps reprinted Art Center College of Design. courtesy of the U. S. Geological Survey. Excerpt from All rights reserved. ISBN 978-0-9618705-0-8 “Los Angeles Days” reprinted with the permission of Simon and Schuster Adult Publishing Group from Design: Sagmeister Inc., NYC After Henry by Joan Didion. Copyright © 1992 by Managing Editor: Gloria Gerace Joan Didion. All rights reserved. Pp. 97–100 from Ask Editor: Alex Carswell The Dust by John Fante. Copyright © 1980 by John Printer: Capital Offset Co. Fante. Reprinted by permission of HarperCollins Publishers. Excerpt from As I Remember by Arnold Genthe. Copyright © 1936 by Reynal & Hitchcock. Reprinted by permission of Ayer Company Publishers. “When Mother Nature Visits Southern California” by David Hernandez, 1998, used by permission of the author. Excerpt from “Assembling California” from Annals of the Former World by John McPhee. Copyright © 1998 by John McPhee. Reprinted by permission of Farrar, Straus and Giroux, LLC. Excerpt from “Folklore of Earthquakes” from Fool’s Paradise: The Carey McWilliams Reader. Reprinted by permission of Harold Ober Associates Incorporated. Copyright © 1933 by Carey McWilliams. First published in American Mercury. “When Living on the Edge Becomes Stark–Naked Reality” originally appeared in the Los Angeles Times. Copyright © 1987 Carolyn See. Used by permission of the author. Excerpt from “The L.A. Quake” © 1994 Lawrence S C C Weschler. Used by permission of the author. The full E essay appeared in the Threepenny Review and is part an NSF+USGS center of Vermeer in Bosnia: Cultural Comedies and Political Tragedies, Pantheon, 2004. 4/5

8 FOREWORD 72 SECTION 2: by Richard Koshalek Building for the Big One 12 PREFACE by Judith Lewis by Antonio R. Villaraigosa 16 INTRODUCTION 78 Excerpt from Annals of the by Mariana Amatullo Former World by John McPhee 22 SECTION 1: Stories From the Fault Zone 82 Earthquakes are Fabulous by Judith Lewis An interview with Thom Mayne by Dana Hutt 30 Earthquake Explorations in Southern California 88 Engineering from End to End: by Susan Hough A New Approach to Modeling Seismic Activity 36 The “P-word” An interview with Dr. Jean-Lou Chameau by Thomas H. Jordan and Dr. Paul Jennings by Judith Lewis

44 An Eerie Quiet on the Southern 98 A Comprehensive Approach to San Andreas Earthquake Engineering: Lessons A profile of Lucile Jones by Judith Lewis from Northridge and Beyond An interview with Susan Tubbesing 58 Preparing L.A. for Potential by Aileen Farnan Antonier Earthquakes: Applications of Space Technology 104 The Field Act: Building by Charles Elachi and Andrea Donnellan Stronger Schools by Judith Lewis 66 Excerpt from “The Folklore of Earthquakes” 110 Visual Essay by Paul Rogers Paul McCreery Paul by Carey McWilliams 6/7

126 SECTION 3: 190 SECTION 4: 236 SECTION 5: 282 Intervention Design and Preparing for the Unthinkable The Longest Second: The Aftermath: The Resilient City Preparedness by Judith Lewis Earthquake Comes on a Quaking Planet by Sean Donahue by Judith Lewis by Judith Lewis 132 Excerpt from “Los Angeles Days” 290 The 7 Steps to Earthquake by Joan Didion 194 “When Mother Nature Visits 242 Excerpt from As I Remember Preparedness Southern California” by Arnold Genthe from Dare to Prepare 138 The Cultural Geographies of by David Hernandez “A River In Egypt” Natural Disasters 246 The Social Cascade: Preserving by Martin Kaplan with by Michael Dear 198 Disaster Research: Studying Communities After a Disaster visuals by Darren Ragle Collective Behavior by Judith Lewis with contributions by 144 Assessing Preparedness A profile of Kathleen Tierney Richard L. Bernknopf, Mark Ghilarducci, 316 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS An interview with Linda Bourque by Aileen Farnan Antonier and Anne M. Wein 324 Contributors by Aileen Farnan Antonier 328 Participants 204 Excerpt from “The L.A. Quake” 254 A Place To Live After the 150 How To Succeed in by Lawrence Weschler Shaking Stops 336 RESOURCES Disaster Readiness by Mary Comerio 338 Selected Bibliography A profile of Richard McCarthy 210 The Novelty of Crises: How To 340 Selected Resources by Aileen Farnan Antonier Prepare For the Unprecedented 260 Reprint of “When Living on the Edge by Arnold M. Howitt and Becomes Stark-Naked Reality” 158 Earthquake Disasters by Design Herman B. “Dutch” Leonard by Carolyn See by Dennis S. Mileti 218 Excerpt from Ask the Dust 266 Shaken, Not Stirred: Earthquakes 164 Bold Leadership in Crisis by John Fante and the Culture of Erasure Management—A Call to Action by David L. Ulin by James Lee Witt 222 Communication: The Weakest Link A profile of Ellis M. Stanley, Sr 276 Designing the Message: The Challenge 182 Visual Essay by Christoph Niemann by Aileen Farnan Antonier of The Los Angeles Earthquake: Get Ready Project in the Studio 228 Visual Essay by The Ann Field Studio by Anne Burdick 8/9

Richard Koshalek President, Art Center College of Design

in Los Angeles, stands the chance of becoming our we live with the certainty that at any Hurricane Katrina. The lesson of New given time—and without any warning— Orleans is clear: In a mega-disaster, we the ground will shift dramatically. In the may be on our own to ride out the initial immediate aftermath, our infrastructure mayhem that could follow. Yet, a post- could be seriously compromised, with Katrina scenario need not unfold in Los communication networks shut down and Angeles, because experts widely agree lifelines severed. In other words, the that we can mitigate the impact of the Sul-Young Cho next major earthquake we experience next big quake—if we plan ahead. Foreword 10/11 Richard Koshalek

With The Los Angeles Earthquake: existence. How do we deal with the need creating new models for Get Ready project, Art Center College to prepare for something that has not interaction and outreach, The Los of Design has convened an innovative happened in our lifetime? How do we fully Angeles Earthquake project also consortium charged with finding new realize that our personal actions—or represents an exceptional opportunity solutions to this long-standing challenge. inaction—will have real consequences? for the media to carry an equally new By bringing the visual and communication These and other provocative questions message throughout Los Angeles and skills of the international design commu- run through many of the book’s essays, beyond. In this spirit of participation and nity together with expertise in science, interviews, and profiles—with many optimism, therefore, Art Center dedi- emergency management, policy, and answers as well. cates this sourcebook to the media public health, this consortium is yield- community. As the following pages show, ing entirely new, effective approaches we can all work together to get ready to earthquake preparedness and safety. much as anything, I hope that and move from a society in denial to a The clarity of the design approach is this publication and The Los Angeles culture of possibility and individual providing powerful ways to make new Earthquake project will underscore the responsibility—and in so doing, create tools for preparation and coping avail- pivotal role of designers—and the entire an even more resilient city capable of able to the largest possible public. creative community—in building public transcending an enormous challenge. awareness and response to a major urban challenge that faces Los Angeles Richard Koshalek publication provides and numerous cities worldwide. Art President, Art Center the first of these tools: an expertly de- Center is deeply committed to this kind College of Design signed, up-to-date reference resource of advocacy, and to expanding the range on the topic at hand. While far from ex- of socially relevant responsibilities for June 2008 haustive, this compendium is the first to the creative individual. Through its edu- include truly diverse voices that together cational mission, the College encourages offer new wisdom about living along the students and faculty to develop origi- web of faults that animate our active nal ways to engage with long-standing terrain. Various narratives and visual el- societal problems, and enables new ements complement this core knowledge generations of designers to collaborate and raise fundamental questions that with leaders in business, public policy, pertain to many aspects of contemporary science, and technology. 12/13

Antonio R. Villaraigosa Mayor, City of Los Angeles

of the greatest things and overcome it in a way that perhaps no about Los Angeles has always been its other city ever has. Our responders— resilience in the face of disaster. from police and fire agencies to the many Unfortunately, because our landscape other vital community organizations that regularly subjects us to calamities such we rely on—step up and show the world as wildfires, mudslides and earthquakes, how dedication and determination can that resilience has been called upon all save lives and inspire hope. Our people too often. Yet every time a challenge rise to the occasion with unparalleled

Katherine Siy Katherine arises, Angelenos are there to confront support for their fellow citizens. Preface 14/15 Antonio R. Villaraigosa

I have pledged to lead this city in road—should be a barometer of that College of Design, one of the world’s top call to action for each of us to work facing its most daunting challenges. In commitment. schools of design and art; their contri- toward the common goal of building an Los Angeles, one of the biggest chal- bution reflects the pivotal role of the even more resilient city. With community lenges we confront is preparedness for creative community in addressing major participation at their heart, these earthquakes. We always strive to give our responders stand as social issues. In addition, these efforts activities reflect my strong belief that our responders the crucial resources a model for other cities across the helped launch The Great Southern solutions to our most pressing challeng- they need, and as a result our emer- country and around the world, so can California ShakeOut, an unprecedented es are often found not only in govern- gency management capability is one of our citizens. We each have a role to play weeklong mobilization of public aware- ment, but in the care we give to our the strongest in the world. But as we’ve in mitigating the damage that will come in ness throughout Los Angeles in Novem- neighbors and ourselves. On behalf of seen countless times in the past, it takes the wake of the next natural disaster. ber 2008. the City of Los Angeles, I am pleased to more than well-trained professionals to This publication along with The Los endorse this vital initiative. get us back on our collective feet after a Angeles Earthquake: Get Ready project disaster. It takes an unwavering commit- serve as invaluable resources for devel- bringing together authorita- Antonio R. Villaraigosa ment from our community. Our success oping the tools we need to face a future tive expert voices with some of the Mayor, City of Los Angeles in preparing for what we all know lies that is both certain and imprecise. Both talents who embody Los Angeles’ great ahead—tomorrow or a decade down the of these efforts are led by Art Center creative soul, these endeavors sound the Katherine Siy Katherine 16/17

Mariana Amatullo

the wake of the devastation New Orleans’ ninth ward district. The left after the landfall of Hurricane sight of the hardest-hit neighborhoods, Katrina in August 2005, Richard and our witnessing of the disheartening Koshalek and I facilitated a compelling disruption brought about by the hurri- student-led investigation which took our cane, and the man-made disaster that small team to the crescent city for field followed, ultimately became the inspira- research, six months after the storm. tion for The Los Angeles Earthquake: The project resulted in a set of innova- Get Ready project. Brenna Pribadi Brenna tive strategies for the urban renewal of Introduction 18/19 Mariana Amatullo

setting the grounding Designmatters imprimatur, The Los probable 7.8 magnitude earthquake on and again in the framework for The Los Angeles Earth- Angeles Earthquake project is conceived the southernmost segment of the San development of The Los Angeles Earth- quake project, the key twist is that we as a unique opportunity to position Andreas Fault, identifying physical quake project, we heard from our part- are anticipating a natural disaster of design education as a powerful cata- damages, and estimating in great detail ners that there is a weak link–getting catastrophic scale, instead of respond- lyst that can bridge the divide between the cascading social and economic people to pay attention to readiness. We ing to one. Essentially, we want to be scientific understanding about damag- consequences of such an event. Perhaps thought hard about these issues. Very ahead of the possibility of a destructive ing quakes, and the ability of the public the most striking aspect of this compre- early on we seized on what Art Center’s quake–which all experts agree is to feel empowered and to change their hensive scientific study, led by Dr. Lucile most powerful role and window of op- inevitable. As a creative community, we behavior in terms of preparedness. Jones of the U.S. Geological Survey with portunity for a lasting contribution could are posing the questions: how do we act over three hundred contributors, is that be: devising a multimedia communication now before the big earthquake? And it depicts an earthquake no Californians strategy to make people more aware of what can we do to lessen the impact we immersed ourselves in (except the handful survivors from the what could actually happen and how they after it occurs? the research phase of this project for 1906 San Francisco quake) have ever could be better prepared. We viewed this As a leader in art and design edu- the past three years, we have had an experienced before—a disaster causing project as an invitation to explore new cation, Art Center College of Design ongoing dialogue with scientists, emer- widespread damage regionally, and communication vehicles to get important has a long-lasting tradition in shaping gency responders, and government precipitating a level of systemic disrup- messages out. The diverse mosaic of the form and function of our culture, officials who think about the implications tion that our communities are ill-pre- the City of Los Angeles has challenged producing creative leaders who bring of a major earthquake all the time. In this pared to face. us to search for culturally appropriate purpose, utility, meaning, and pleasure process, we were fortunate to align Art means for outreach that can resonate to our daily lives. With The Los Angeles Center’s efforts with the broadly at a grassroots level with some of the Earthquake project, the impetus for supported initiative The Great Southern most under-served populations who will engaging students and faculty to think California ShakeOut, a week of special the earthquake modeled in the ShakeOut be at great risk during a catastrophic beyond the walls of the classroom fits events in November 2008 featuring the scenario ever happens, the scientific event. Our contemporary digital context into one of Art Center’s primary missions largest public preparedness drill in the consensus is that a quake of a similar and the explosion of participatory media as an advocate for the role of design- U.S. history, and an unparalleled number magnitude is highly plausible in our life- platforms and social networks are also ers as change agents. It is also fully of activities organized to inspire time. It is not a matter of if, but when, channels for learning and civic engage- embodied College-wide in Designmat- Southern Californians to get ready for a and innovative communication strategies ment that we are tapping into with ters, whose mandate it is to research potentially enormous earthquake in our that overcome barriers to preparedness the conviction that we can foster an and develop solutions to the critically future. The basis for this effort is the and can improve upon individual and col- unprecedented level of production and relevant issues of our time. With the ShakeOut scenario, which models a lective resiliency are critically needed. distribution of ideas that may galvanize Introduction 20/21 Mariana Amatullo

the public to engage in preparedness as The diversity and depth of testimonials, a matter of lifestyle and informed choice. interviews, and essays captured in the The new paradigms for communication following pages underscore our multifac- created by the project aspire to provide eted learning, one that embodies the cel- a blueprint as well for vitally needed ebrated edict by H. G. Wells: “the history mitigation efforts beyond California, as of humanity is a race between learning the recent disasters of Myanmar and and disaster.” I trust that our journey will Chengdu attest. With a series of three live on through the compelling messag- interrelated components, this visual ing, images, and media created by the sourcebook, a public awareness cam- students and faculty of Art Center College paign, and a civic event, “The Get Ready of Design—a vital laboratory for design Rally”–The Los Angeles Earthquake:Get education and leadership. Ready project launches during ShakeOut week with the promise of starting a new Mariana Amatullo conversation. Vice President, International Initiatives Director, Designmatters many ways, this publication Director, The Los Angeles represents the foundational platform and Earthquake: Get Ready Project repository of knowledge for the project. Art Center College of Design 22/23

SECTION 1: STORIES FROM THE FAULT ZONE 24/25

Long ago, when most of the world was water, Great Spirit decided to make a beautiful land with lakes and rivers, that turtles carried on their backs. One day the turtles began to argue and three of the turtles began to swim east, while the other three swam west. The earth shook! It cracked with a loud noise. The turtles could not swim far, because the land on their backs was heavy. When they saw that they could not swim far away they stopped arguing and made up. But every once in a while, the turtles that hold up California argue again, and each time they do, the earth shakes.

–Legend of the Gabrielino Indians, Southern California Stories From the Fault Zone 26/27 Judith Lewis

at the edge of the There’s the lamp that flies Mojave Desert drew zigzag lines on rock came unmoored and floated straight out North American tectonic plate, we can across the room in the faces. Tales of canyon-dwelling monsters of the bathroom. Maybe we even invest count on earthquakes. We may not be pre-dawn darkness; the imagined and passed down by the early in pajamas. able to pinpoint when they will happen, pets that wake their owners Cahuilla Indians near Palm Springs were Yet those nine days of gossip turn we just know that they will, at regular mere seconds before; the probably inspired by a great earthquake into nine months, and then nine years, intervals, and occasionally with enough neighbors who spend the on the southern San Andreas Fault, and finally, the stories stop circulat- force to raise mountains and collapse last few jolts shivering sometime around 1675, give or take 30 ing. A few might crop up on the 10th bridges. We know as we put up our build- naked in the street. years. Two centuries later, in San Fran- anniversary, but by then, embellished ings that we must build them to stronger cisco, Mark Twain observed that first- and distilled by time, they have begun standards than they do in the places our cities on top of them. Sometimes we hand accounts of the 1865 earthquake to sound like someone else’s stories. We where segments of the earth never don’t know they’re there until, for some “made toothsome gossip for nine days.” move into new apartments, forgetting collide and slip apart; we know as we unknown reason, a fault rips open like to inspect the integrity of their founda- deliberate over where to hang a heavy a seam—a few inches, a few feet, or tions. We neglect to keep a wrench near painting that we can’t nail it to the wall a mile. Then we name them: Newport- told of the gas shutoff valve, or even to inves- over our beds. We are aware that some- Inglewood (6.4 at Long Beach, 1933). women running down streets holding tigate where that valve is. One lazy day, times a force pushes us out of our chairs San Fernando (6.7 near Sylmar, 1971). naked children by the ankles, men fleeing we find all our canned goods expired, when there’s no one in the room. San Andreas (8.0 near Fort Tejon, 1857, barbershops half-shaved, confused dogs throw them out, and move on. With bills among others). scrambling up attic ladders. Our stories to pay, children to feed, and deadlines In the days that follow an earth- today—many of which get repeated with to meet, we worry only about preparing you look at a tectonic map of quake, hardly anything satisfies the slight variations after every temblor— for tomorrow. We rarely consider that the world, you can see why this is true. survivors better than trading narratives are hardly much different. There’s the tomorrow might bring an earthquake. All along the west coast of our conti- about those shattering seconds when the lamp that flies across the room in the This book is meant to serve as a nent, our North American plate forms an faults give way. This has been true for as pre-dawn darkness; the pets that wake reminder that tomorrow is as likely a day uneasy boundary with the Pacific plate, long as humans have walked on this un- their owners mere seconds before; the as any. Unlike hurricanes, earthquakes which reaches all the way to the Marian- settled ground: As geologist and author neighbors who spend the last few jolts don’t have a season. All weather is as Trench, just east of Japan. For tens of Susan Hough has noted, the world’s most shivering naked in the street. We praise earthquake weather. millions of years, these plates have been vivid petroglyphs can be found alongside our luck, and vow to do better next time. As The L.A. Earthquake Sourcebook sliding past one another, straining at faults. Perhaps to describe the trembling Fill the water jars, secure the toppling came together in the spring and summer their edges into millions of fissures. We of the earth and the tumbling of rocks, bookcase that missed the bed by just of 2008, the ground in California had call these fissures “faults,” and we build the earliest residents of the fault-ridden a few inches, bolt down the toilet that been relatively still for an awfully long Stories From the Fault Zone 28/29 Judith Lewis

time; a 4.0 that rattled San Bernar- California ShakeOut, scheduled for Nov- dino on June 23, 2008, seemed like big ember 12-16, 2008, this book has been news. Indeed, although nearly half of designed to give residents, local decision California’s residents live near enough makers, and media in this quake-prone to the southern San Andreas Fault to land the basic tools to prevent a disaster be affected by a major rupture there, from turning into a catastrophe. a great many of them have never felt a Because the best way to combat significant earthquake at all. There is no fear is with knowledge, The L.A. way to know whether the quiet will hold Earthquake Sourcebook begins with a as the book makes its way through the primer in the science of earthquakes. production process. It’s possible that Susan Hough, who is also Scientist-in- you have already felt the little earth- Charge at the Pasadena (California) quake that reminded you to replace the Office of the U.S. Geological Survey batteries in the flashlight you keep under (USGS) and the author of the 2006 the bed, and made you grateful you spent biography of Charles F. Richter, Richter’s the relatively small sum it cost to get Scale: Measure of an Earthquake, reinforce the foundation of your home, if Measure of a Man, gives the history of you have one. that science, from the 1906 San Kevin Wong Kevin Francisco earthquake to the modern era of networked instruments that record also possible that some many a seismological event and instantly segment of Southern California currently transmit its magnitude back to a lab. lies in ruins, in which case this book will Thomas Jordan, the director of the be, well, interesting. Southern California Earthquake Center Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project, researchers know that an earthquake on But if none of our faults have at the University of Southern California, gives an introduction to the developing the southern San Andreas Fault is long moved enough to remind you what lies explains why after many decades of science of paleoseismology, by which overdue. “[W]e think this is an earth- beneath us, consider this book a benign, trying geologists have yet to accurately geologists can determine with increasing quake,” Jones says, “that everybody metaphorical earthquake. In tandem predict an earthquake. And in a profile of precision when a given fault last broke, should be ready for.” with the U.S. Geological Survey’s mock Lucy Jones, the USGS chief scientist and how hard it shook. It’s because of earthquake drill, The Great Southern currently in charge of the agency’s refinements in paleoseismology that 30/31

Susan Hough

Way back in 132 A.C.E., the Chinese astronomer Zhang Heng invented an instrument with which to detect earthquakes. A bronze vase adorned with eight slender dragons, the instrument would respond to a disturbance in the earth by dropping a ball from the mouth of a dragon into a bronze toad below. Zhang’s instrument was sensitive enough to detect an earthquake 400 miles away, but it would take nearly two millennia before scientists began to understand the tectonic forces that cause temblors, and developed an instrument, the

Chieh Ni Chu Ni Chieh Wood-Anderson seismograph, to measure their force. Earthquake Explorations in Southern California 32/33 Susan Hough

Later, in 1935, Charles F. Richter devised a mathematical formula to tive obscurity. Geologists followed of the San Andreas Fault in 1857, and help scientists compare the relative size of earthquakes. The Richter not only the fresh scar left locally by that large quakes would inevitably scale is the basis for the moment magnitude scale seismologists the 1906 earthquake, but continued happen again. currently use to evaluate earthquakes. through Central and Southern Cali- In a 1916 article, Wood laid out an The Scientist-in-Charge at the Pasadena Office of the U.S. fornia, eventually mapping nearly the innovative blueprint for a network of Geological Survey, Susan Hough writes about earthquakes as keenly full extent of the San Andreas Fault. seismic stations throughout the state, as she studies them, with curiosity and passion to inspire lay readers. and made a strategic suggestion that Among her many books and articles is the 2007 biography of Richter, the plan be tested on a limited scale in Richter’s Scale: Measure of an Earthquake, Measure of a Man. In the Los Angeles, burgeon- Southern California. By 1921, Wood following essay, she gives an introduction to the basic precepts of ing business interests sprang into had convinced the Carnegie Institute seismology, and the geologists who developed the science. action, painting the region as bliss- to underwrite a first-ever seismologi- fully free of all natural hazards, cal laboratory in Southern Califor- including earthquakes. Yes, faults nia. The lab was set up under Wood’s had been mapped in the Los Angeles direction, occupying borrowed space don’t have to spend which focused both the world’s and area, but through the 1920s at least at Mt. Wilson Observatory. a lot of time in California to know the geological community’s atten- some geologists described them as that this is earthquake country. When tions on California. ancient and harmless relics (includ- Captain Gaspar de Portola led his Scientists began investigating ing the Newport-Inglewood Fault, teamed up with expedition into the state in 1769, a earthquakes with modern instru- which produced the 1933 Long astronomer John Anderson to design moderate earthquake greeted him mentation in the late 19th century, Beach earthquake). The San Andreas a new breed of seismometer. Unlike and his men as they camped near a but the field of seismology arguably Fault, when acknowledged at all, was the ungainly earlier instruments that river in the southland. Santa Ana de came of age with the 1906 earth- dismissed as being too far from the recorded large global earthquakes, the los Temblores, they called it. Earth- quake. Data collected in its aftermath city to be of concern. Wood-Anderson seismometer was a quakes continued to rattle settlers led directly to one of the most basic The best scientific minds of the marvel: small, light, relatively porta- who poured into Northern California tenets in earthquake science: elastic day knew better. Even then, the far ble, and able to record small local after James Marshall found glittery rebound, which explains how earth- less expansive Los Angeles was not so rumblings. In Anderson’s words, nuggets along the American River. quakes happen as a consequence of far away from the San Andreas Fault. “There ain’t no other seismograph Awareness of and concern about stress accumulation. Perhaps the Scientists, among them Harry Oscar worth talking about than ours.” The earthquakes climaxed with the great most impressive post-earthquake Wood, knew that a large earthquake first Wood-Anderson seismometer San Francisco earthquake of 1906, investigation was one done in rela- had occurred on a southern stretch was installed at Mt. Wilson. Earthquake Explorations in Southern California 34/35 Susan Hough

Through its first five years, Earthquake country and Caltech, Gutenberg init- increased to 148 by 1976 and began Wood’s laboratory remained under the Golden State. From the tially focused on global earthquake to transmit data via telemetry rather the auspices of the Carnegie Insti- beginning, as now, they are studies while Richter continued to than relying on local film recording. tute, and independent of Caltech, one and the same. analyze local earthquakes recorded on Today’s network of over 350 stations is which had been founded as a scientif- Wood-Anderson instruments. Rich- a far cry from the fledging network of ic institute only in 1920, and added head Robert Millikan, who suggested ter’s early efforts focused on devel- the 1920s, but continues to reflect its a degree program in geology only in a young man who had just earned one opment of the first-ever scale to rank heritage as a state-of-the-art research 1925. As the lab outgrew its space, of Caltech’s earliest Ph.Ds in phys- the size of earthquakes in Southern resource that not only serves societal Wood convinced the Carnegie Insti- ics: Charles Frances Richter. Richter California, the scale that eventually needs, but also drives modern earth- tute to underwrite the costs of new accepted Wood’s offer, intending to turned his name into a household quake science. quarters. Dubbed the Kresge Lab in work at the lab only until he could find word. Soon thereafter, Gutenberg Earthquake country and the honor of one of its benefactors, the a more suitable position in his field. teamed with Richter to expand the Golden State. From the beginning, building was constructed in a resi- original formulation to measure the as now, they are one and the same. dential area in Pasadena a few miles size of earthquakes in other locations, from the Caltech campus. the meantime, Millikan and to measure more accurately the In 1927, a nascent Southern Cali- had developed a keen interest in the magnitudes of large earthquakes. fornia seismic network comprised six seismological laboratory and seismic The Seismological Laboratory stations, sparse by today’s standards network, which he recognized as poten- continued as a Carnegie-Caltech part- but sufficient to record small earth- tial world-class research resources. nership until the mid-1930s. In 1937, quakes throughout the region. The Millikan decided that an infusion of Caltech formally took over operations network’s first permanent station was world-class seismological expertise was of the lab, and both Richter and his installed at Kresge (where it remained needed to fully exploit data from the colleague Hugo Benioff joined the in operation until it was moved to network. In 1929, Caltech hosted an Caltech faculty. Only Wood, who did the campus of Art Center College of international gathering of the world’s not hold a PhD, remained on the Design in 2006). leading experts in seismology. Among Carnegie payroll. Caltech continued As the seismic network began the attendees was German-born Beno to run the seismic network, which producing data—seismograms record- Gutenberg, renowned for his contri- expanded to 20 stations by 1970. In the ed on film—Wood recognized the butions to global seismology. Millikan 1970s, the network began operations need for an analyst with a background extended a job offer to Gutenberg, who as a partnership with the U.S. Geolog- in physics. He approached Caltech joined the Caltech faculty in 1930. ical Survey. The number of stations 36/37

Thomas H. Jordan

If we know so much about faults, why can’t we predict earthquakes? The question baffles even scientists, who continue to seek the formula that will allow them to pinpoint the size and location of the next big earthquake. Thomas H. Jordan is the Director, Southern California Earthquake Center, University of Southern California, where he also serves as professor and William M. Keck Foundation Chair in Geological Sciences. He describes himself as optimistic about the future of earthquake pre- diction, considering it “an important gauge of progress in earthquake system science.” Clifford Elbl Clifford The “P-word” 38/39 Thomas H. Jordan

know a lot about earth- Thirty years later, this promise that are certain to shake California in these systems. The inability to predict quakes: where faults might rupture to remains unfulfilled. Though various the not-too-distant future. earthquakes demonstrates how little produce earthquakes, how big these schemes for short-term prediction we really know about the processes of ruptures can get, and how frequently have been proposed, none has prov- seismic faulting. The predictability (on average) they will occur. But we en successful, despite the substan- reactions are un- of earthquake phenomena is thus an cannot predict with any useful preci- tial advances in instrumentation for scientific and impractical, however. important gauge of progress in earth- sion when a large earthquake on a monitoring active faults. Seismic safety depends on long-term quake system science. particular fault will actually happen. Confronted with these faiures, forecasting—predicting earthquakes Not that we haven’t tried! For many experts have become so dis- on time scales of decades to centuries. Why is earthquake prediction more than a century, seismologists couraged that they refrain from The U.S. Geological Survey incorpo- such a difficult problem? have deployed sensitive instruments rates detailed long-term forecasts for around faults in search of signals The inability to predict all 50 states into its official National Rocks are very brittle; they frac- that could reliably warn communi- earthquakes demostrates Seismic Hazard Map, on which the ture suddenly, starting on a tiny patch ties of impending disasters hours how little we really know building codes in California and of fault about the size of a living-room to weeks in advance. By the 1970s, about the processes of most other seismically active states rug. Most stop soon after they begin, many believed this type of short- seismic faulting. The are based. Insurance companies use producing only small earthquakes. In term earthquake prediction was right predictability of earth- even more sophisticated forecasts to rare cases, the fracture continues to around the corner. A panel of scien- quake phenomena is thus set their policy premiums. Research propagate along the fault, like a crack tists convened by the National Acad- an important gauge of aimed at predicting seismic activity on through glass, at speeds up to 6,000 emy of Sciences in 1976 issued a very progress in earthquake shorter time scales is critical to test- miles per hour. Magnitude 2 events optimistic assessment: system science. ing these long-term forecasts, which (which are usually too weak to be felt) “Reliable earthquake prediction cannot be directly verified without are 10,000 times more common is an achievable goal. We will prob- using the “P-word” in public, and waiting for a very long time. than magnitude 6 events (which can ably predict an earthquake of at least research has faltered. Some have Prediction research is also moti- damage buildings), yet they appear to magnitude 5 in California within the even advocated abandoning the vated by the search for fundamental begin the same way. next five years in a scientifically sound subject altogether, arguing that the scientific knowledge. The natural In Southern California, seis- way and with a sufficiently small pursuit of prediction is a wild goose systems that govern our environment mometers record at least several space and time uncertainty to allow chase that distracts us from the real are extremely complex, and our success magnitude 2 events every day. There- public acceptance and effective response.” task at hand: making sure our build- in predicting their behavior is the fore, predicting destrutive earth- [emphasis added] ings remain safe during the temblors way we measure our understanding of quakes depends more on knowing The “P-word” 40/41 Thomas H. Jordan

when the rupture will stop than when Fault at depths reaching two miles, complexity of fault systems. Although properties that tell us a big one is on it will begin. Because slight variations but the total cost of the project was the San Andreas is the master fault its way. Indeed, the “chatter” of can make a big difference—fractur- almost $30 million. of the plate boundary, it is flanked earthquakes, big and small, consti- ing is whwat physicists call a chaotic The prediction problem involves on either side by a host of active, tutes a conversation among faults we process—predicting the evolution of not just mapping the properties of subsidiary faults—over 300 in South- don’t yet understand. any particular fracture is essentially rocks around the fault zones, but also ern California alone—many capable impossible, even if you could accu- the forces that cause the faults to snap. of large events. In fact, all of the Is the quest for earthquake rately measure in advance the prop- We know these forces are increasing as destructive Southern California prediction hopeless? erties of the rock masses on either the motions between the Pacific and earthquakes during the last century side of the fault—which, of course, North American plates distort the were generated by slippage on these Many seismologists are pessi- you can’t. tectonic blocks on either side of the subsidiary faults rather than on the mistic that the P-word will ever prove San Andreas Fault, and we can measure San Andreas itself. useful in helping society reduce the distortion using GPS satellites. The earthquake risk, but I am personally ruptures in Cali- rate of plate motion, about two inches more optimistic. The predictability fornia begin three to 12 miles below per year, creates enough distortion to interact of seismic activity can be observed the surface, and the opaque rock generate earthquakes of magnitude 7.5 with each other through earthquakes: on many time scales. For instance, that separates them from our surface to 8.0 every 150 years or so. Howev- when one fault slips, it changes the simple statistical rules of earth- instruments precludes remote sens- er, the interval between such events is forces on others faults in its neigh- quake triggering can describe the ing using radar or other electromag- highly irregular; geologic data on past borhood and thus modifies the time short-term behavior of aftershock netic waves. (Seismologists really envy ruptures indicate it can be as short when its neighbors are ready to slip sequences, such as the regular decay meteorologists, who can simply watch as 75 years and sometimes greater again. Moreover, one earthquake in aftershock frequency with time, hurricanes and tornados as they form than 300. For instance, the south- can trigger others, leading to chain and these rules are already being and then move leisurely through ernmost section of the San Andreas, reactions. When a main shock trig- employed to create an official daily the atmosphere!) Direct sampling from San Bernardino to the Salton gers a bunch of smaller earthquakes, earthquake forecast for California. by drilling is technically possible, at Sea, hasn’t broken in a big earthquake we call them aftershocks.“Foreshock” Scientists are now developing least in the uppermost part of the since around 1690; seismologists is just a term we use to describe an computer models that chart how seismogenic zone, but it’s prohibi- nervously joke about the region being initial event that happens to be tectonic stresses build up within the tively expensive. An experimental “10 months pregnant.” followed by an aftershock bigger fault system and how a rupture on drill hole near Parkfield, California, The irregularity of earthquake than itself. To our frustration, fore- one fault segment changes the stress has recently probed the San Andreas sequences stems primarily from the shocks don’t seem to have special throughout the surrounding region. The “P-word” 42/43 Thomas H. Jordan

Depending on the geometry of the the events recorded on networks of intermediate-term prediction would It seems clear that although the fault network, such stress changes can seismographs can therefore provide give the probability of an event only pursuit of earthquake predictions is a either increase or decrease the likeli- a regional stress gauge. Someday on time scales of months to years; valuable one, the ability to ultimately hood of earthquakes on nearby fault you might hear a news report that not precise enough information to issue such predictions would raise very segments, which helps to explain the says, “The National Earthquake warrant expensive and disruptive difficult questions, both for scientists variability in earthquake recurrence Prediction Evaluation Coun- measures (such as large-scale evacua- and for policy makers. intervals. To capture the physical and cil estimates that, during the next tions) to mitigate earthquake damage. geometrical effects, the fault-system year, there is a 50% probability of

How should society respond to a threat that is neither imminent nor long-term? An intermediate-term prediction would give the probability of an event only on time scales of months to years. models must be very complex (much a magnitude 7 or larger earthquake like the climate-system models being on the southernmost segment developed to predict global warm- of the San Andreas Fault.” Much ing), but improving them will help current research aims to establish a reduce the uncertainties in long- scientific basis for this type of term earthquake forecasting. intermediate-term prediction. But monitoring how stress build- But what effect would cred- up and release change the regional ible predictions have on property pattern of earthquake occurrence, values, insurance rates, health care scientists might be able to predict premiums, and other investments in earthquakes over time intervals as the threatened region? Since false short as a few years or maybe even a alarms would likely be common, few months, although with substantial how would communities deal with uncertainties. The basic idea is that this uncertainty? How should soci- stress variations can raise or lower the ety respond to a threat that is neither frequency of small earthquakes, and imminent nor long-term? An 44/45

A Profile of Lucy Jones by Judith Lewis

Since she appeared on television after the 5.9 magnitude Palm Springs earthquake of 1986, Lucy Jones has been calming the post- quake public with her assured explanations of seismic events. After the Landers and Joshua Tree events of 1992 (7.3 and 6.2, respec- tively), she earned the title of “earthquake mom” for appearing on television with her toddler son in tow. She is now chief scientist for the USGS Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project in Southern California, where she coordinates the efforts of a multidisciplinary team to understand natural hazards and their consequences. Ahjung Baik Ahjung An Eerie Quiet on the Southern San Andreas 46/47 Judith Lewis

1974, a graduate student senting a layer of sediment, she shows pulls out the paper on the bottom. at regular intervals. But the segment in geology named Kerry Sieh led how geologists excavate a site and “And you date this layer, knowing of the San Andreas that remains most a team of researchers to a marshy look for evidence of seismic shifts. that the earthquake happened after mysterious to modern geologists, the piece of land along the southern San She begins by laying one sheet on her it got deposited. Now you’ve brack- eerily quiet southern extreme that Andreas Fault where they cut a slice desk, which she partially covers with eted the time of the earthquake by most directly threatens the Los Ange- into the earth to map the upheavals of two more sheets set side by side across les metropolitan area, runs almost geologic time. By digging trenches to the first. “Geologists working on the entirely through a desert. expose layers of sedimentary depos- fault refer to it as being 10 “Usually you figure out how active its, Sieh and his colleagues were able months pregnant,” Jones a fault is by finding features that have to observe offsets in the soil consis- you’ve got a fault,” says. “But I would argue been offset by the fault and can be tent with earthquakes, collect samples she explains, “and there’s a shift that it’s actually more like dated,” Jones explains. “Datable of earth at the sites of those disrup- along the fault.” She moves the top being 20 months pregnant, features usually involve water. There tions and, through a process known two pieces of paper until she expos- at which point you know isn’t very much water [through this as carbon-14 dating, determine when es a sliver of the bottom layer. “And you’re not dealing with a section of the fault]. And it’s very the earth last moved. Sieh’s experi- now another flood comes through, normal pregnancy. difficult to find features that have ment at Pallet Creek, on the south- and you get another layer of sedi- been offset that have been accurately central reach of the San Andreas fault ment.” Two more pieces get laid dating the layers of sediment that correlated across the fault.” near Palmdale, California, would down, slightly askew relative to the weren’t disrupted.” Next you date the forever change the way geologists stack. “And you can see that the one layer that was disrupted, and there charted ancient earthquakes, and on top is broken in a different way you have it: a historical record of an stresses that Sieh was dubbed the father of a new than the one below. earthquake. she’s neither a field geologist nor field of science: paleoseismology. “Now we go and put in something There are just a few problems with paleoseismologist herself. “I’d need Sitting in her office at the U.S. else,”—she sets a magazine horizon- paleoseismology, at least as it applies to be led by the hand into the field Geologic Survey on the campus of tally across both piles of paper, cover- to dating earthquakes in Southern by another scientist to do that kind of the California Institute of Technol- ing the seam between them—“and this California. Sieh was able to pull research,” she says. Instead, she has ogy some 34 years after Sieh’s land- layer hasn’t broken yet. off his Pallet Creek experiment so focused her career for nearly three mark dig, seismologist Lucy Jones “You date this layer,” she says, elegantly because he had found a spot decades on probability assessments uses sheets of paper and magazines tapping the magazine on top, “and where the fault ran through a clas- for earthquakes, developing equa- to demonstrate the science of paleo- you know the earthquake happened sic marsh, where floods and fires laid tions to predict how one earthquake seismology. With each sheet repre- sometime before that.” Then she down carbon-rich peat and charcoal triggers another. For many years she An Eerie Quiet on the Southern San Andreas 48/49 Judith Lewis

Think about the seven days after Katrina—the images of ect: the “Southern San Andreas Fault Because the length of the rupture people dying, people thirsty and waiting to be rescued on Evaluation” (SoSAFE), an investiga- determines the size of the quake, the roofs of their houses—keep that image in your head. tion into that once-active segment of “we’re modeling it at 7.8,” says Jones. Now let’s talk about the earthquake in Southern California. fault that has remained mysteriously And because the magnitude of a quake There are things you have to see to believe. silent for the last 330 years. determines its duration, she predicts “It seems insane,” Jones says, that, in a 7.8 quake that ruptures served as the scientist-in-charge for the Gulf Coast. By the spring of 2007, “but we actually don’t have a good fix along 200 miles of fault, “the ground the U.S. Geological Survey’s South- the Multi-Hazards Demonstration on the southernmost part of the fault. will shake for 100 seconds.” ern California earthquake program, Project in Southern California had We know it’s been 300 years since the To indicate SoSafe’s area of focus, where she was instrumental in devel- been fully funded by Congress, with a last earthquake. Is that because they Jones takes another piece of paper and oping a Web site to determine the quarter of a million dollars devoted to only happen every three hundred or draws a six-inch line, like a flattened probability of an earthquake within the earthquake portion. five hundred years, unlike up north S, marking points along it to represent 24 hours. “It’s on the basis of that “Twenty years ago there was more where it’s pretty clear that they happen the sites where trenches have been dug research that the state issued its first dismissal of what we were saying,” every 150 years? Or is it that we’re and rupture chronologies have been earthquake warnings,” she says. Jones recalls. “But this time we said to overdue? And what does it mean that recorded. “We know that the 1857 Fort But at 52, with over half her life people, ‘Think about the seven days we’re overdue?” Tejon earthquake went from Parkfield invested in earthquake probability, after Katrina—the images of people to the Cajon Pass,” she says, assigning a Jones made a decision to expand dying, people thirsty and waiting dot to Parkfield at the top of the S and beyond her own research, and set her to be rescued on the roofs of their a point of departure, the another roughly halfway down. “At sights on coordinating a larger effort; houses—keep that image in your head. team Jones has assembled for SoSAFE Pallet Creek, Kerry’s original site”— a collaboration among USGS scien- Now let’s talk about the earthquake will examine a “probable” earthquake she marks a point between Palmdale tists, universities, government agen- in Southern California.’ There are on the southern San Andreas: a and the Cajon Pass—“we have the last cies, private companies and emergen- things you have to see to believe.” rupture that begins near the Salton 11 earthquakes, and we have times for cy responders to improve community The Multi-Hazards Demon- Sea and continues roughly 200 miles all of them. At Wrightwood,” precisely resiliency to natural disasters. She stration Project will confront the north past Palmdale to Lake Hughes. halfway down the map, “we have the drew up a proposal for such a proj- consequences of several potential Los Because faults send out concentric most complete earthquake history we ect in the summer of 2005, and it Angeles disaster scenarios: floods, circles of energy at each point of have anywhere—30 earthquakes. But landed before the President’s office fires, landslides, and earthquakes. But rupture as they rip, a rupture moving down here,” where the fault reaches of management and budget two weeks the project’s first wave of funding will toward the city of Los Angeles will toward the Salton Sea, “we only know after Hurricane Katrina laid waste to be devoted to a paleoseimology proj- hurt more than one moving away. for certain that we had an earthquake An Eerie Quiet on the Southern San Andreas 50/51 Judith Lewis

in 1680 that broke in three places.” chance that you will be affected by this why the fault has not moved in the you stopped that earthquake within She marks three dots on the lower third earthquake is a couple of percent.” last 330 years. “Geologists working a short distance; the probability that of her line. “And for a long time, we Considered in terms of probabilities, on the fault refer to it as being 10 the rupture would have made it at least didn’t have any data beyond that. it will seem less like a waste of public months pregnant,” Jones says. “But I 100 miles is pretty high. If you’ve only “Now we have new trenches being funds if we prepare for an earthquake would argue that it’s actually more like got one meter of slip, or a few feet, dug,” and new dating techniques that doesn’t happen in the next 50 being 20 months pregnant, at which it’s a lot less likely—I mean, it could such as thermoluminescence—a way years. “People need to think more in point you know you’re not dealing happen, it could be the beginning of measuring how long soil has been terms of probabilities,” Jones says. with a normal pregnancy. Either the of a rupture—but you have a lower exposed to sunlight—to help pinpoint “This is part of our public educa- probability that two earthquakes some the age of ruptured soil. And despite tion work. We go through high school ...one thing’s for sure: the distance from each other joined up.” the dearth of datable features, thinking that if we’re not scientists last decade’s tectonic quiet Over the last three centuries, the “we’ve been able to determine that we don’t need statistics. But statis- in Southern California can’t southern San Andreas has built up there were probably six earthquakes tics are key to our understanding of last forever. seven meters, or close to 23 feet, of between 800 A.D. and 1680 A.D,” the world.” slip. “So that’s another one of our an average of one every 150 years. rupture chronology is really irregular questions: If the rupture chronology “Now that we have evidence or something else is going on.” really is that irregular, do you then that there really have been a lot of more myster- Two geologists, Glenn Biasi at release all the slip you’ve accumulated earthquakes on the Coachella Valley ies still remain on the southern San the University of Nevada and Ray since the last one? segment,” Jones says, “we’ve changed Andreas, some of them fundamen- Weldon at the University of Oregon, “Because if you do,” Jones warns, the way we talk about it. We used to be tal questions of physical science that have devised a probability formula “there’s no way that earthquake will a lot more cautious. We used to think Jones hopes the SoSAFE project that has been used to estimate that stay confined to the Coachella Valley. we might not live to see this earth- will answer. Geologists have yet to in 1680 an earthquake ripped all the People who believe in that argument— quake. But now the data is accumu- determine, for instance, how adja- way from the Salton Sea to the Cajon that you’ve got this big slip, and that lating, and we think this is an earth- cent faults, such as the San Jacinto, Pass, 100 miles north, and would slip powers [the earthquake] to keep quake that everybody should be ready affect the San Andreas. Neither do have registered 7 to 7.5 on the Richter on going—a lot of those people think for.” To understand why, she returns they know whether ancient earth- scale, had such a thing been devised that this one is going to go all the way to probabilities. “For any individual, quakes that started farther north cut back then. “Their formula is based up to Parkfield. And that could be the chance that your house will burn into it on their way south, or if some on how much the fault slips at that an 8.2.” down is pretty small,” Jones explains. of those earthquakes actually began site,” Jones explains. “If you have 25 Whatever the reason for the “It’s a lot less than one percent. The in the south. Nor can they explain feet of slip, it’s really unlikely that silence of the southern San Andreas, An Eerie Quiet on the Southern San Andreas 52/53 Judith Lewis

and whether it ever slips violently the “blind thrust faults” such as the the rock has been ground up and “We’re calling it the again, one thing’s for sure: the last one that caused the 6.7-magnitude changed by rupturing.” The explo- Great Southern California decade’s tectonic quiet in Southern Northridge quake in 1994 and the sions occasionally cause surface damage ShakeOut,” Jones says. California can’t last forever. Even if magnitude 6 Whittier Narrows event that later has to be repaired, but Jones “We’re hoping we have a the southern San Andreas stays quiet in 1987, has been nearly impossible. insists they never set off earthquakes. real public earthquake day. through the Coachella Valley, there “For one thing, we’ve put people “There are thousands, millions of Our goal is to get everybody are hundreds, even thousands, more on top of them and paved them all these active-source experiments being in Southern California to faults that could erupt in the Los over,” Jones says. “If we could have done, because it’s how the oil indus- duck, cover, and hold at 10 Angeles basin. seen them at the surface before, we try hunts for oil. It’s a very well-con- a.m. on November 13.” can’t now. For another, even though trolled, well-constrained process.” (It you can tell that those two points was through seismic reflection that the tude 3.” About half the region’s big 1992, when the are moving toward one another, the Los Angeles Regional Seismic Experi- earthquakes occurred in periods in Southern California Research Center fault that’s building up to an earth- ment, or LARS, was able to locate which there were 80 to 90 events was founded out of a consortium of quake isn’t moving—that’s the point. the Puente Hills thrust, the buried per year of magnitude 3 or greater. universities at the USGS, most of Somewhere in between them is a fault fault system that caused the Whittier In 2003, there were only 48. After Southern California’s complex system that’s stuck, and that’s where the Narrows quake.) the 7.1 magnitude quake in 1999 of faults, which begins at the Mexi- earthquake will happen. GPS data near the southern desert town of can border and extends up to up to can’t help with that.” Hector Mine, the whole network of San Luis Obispo, has been rigorously recognizes faults seemed to shut off. In 2006, mapped; since 2001, GPS technology that any kind of earthquake predic- Jones has observed, the ground has made it possible to measure the there’s another process, tion provokes controversy in seis- got busy again. “We’re starting to distance between a network of selected known as “seismic reflection,” that mology circles, but she believes see a lot of twos and threes,” she locations over time (Palos Verdes, for can. Geologists can excavate tunnels, there’s at least enough data to suggest says. Rumblings have been detect- example, is moving toward Pasadena set off explosions and bounce seismic that earthquakes happen in clusters. ed along the San Jacinto fault, and at the rate of 4 millimeters per year) waves off buried rock and record the “I did some statistical work analyz- smaller faults are on the move. “At and, by detecting abnormal move- result, just like an ultrasound or CAT ing the long-term pattern,” says some point we’ll be up to the higher ment in the earth’s crust, determine scan in your body. “It’s called ‘active Jones, who early in her career spent rate again,” Jones says. “And I think where new faults might be. source exploration,’ which is a way of time studying seismic foreshocks in that’s probably pretty soon.” But pinpointing the precise not using the word bombs,” Jones says. China, “and looked at the rate of It’s a good time, then, for South- locations of those faults, particularly “Faults reflect seismic waves because sequences with at least one magni- ern Californians to start learning a An Eerie Quiet on the Southern San Andreas 54/55 Judith Lewis

few things to help them cope better count to recognize the with the inevitable earthquake, which waves,” Jones explains. First comes to Jones mean thinking beyond the the “P” wave, a sound wave generated proverbial earthquake kit. “Those by the vibration of the initial ground damn kits!” she laments. “There’s a lot rupture. It moves in the same direc- you have to do before you can have the tion that the ground is moving at six luxury of being a surviving victim.” kilometers per second. Then comes the slower-moving “S” wave, which vibrates perpendicular to the direc- Jones advises, tion of the fault rupture. By the time have the building you live in rein- delay between the onset of the P wave forced if you haven’t already done and the arrival of the S wave, you can so. Second, “secure your space—the estimate your distance from the inside of your house. Strap your epicenter. Baik Ahjung bookshelves to the wall, and make sure “Have you ever counted thun- there aren’t any heavy pictures hang- der and lightning?” Jones asks. “The ing over your bed or in your hallway.” time difference between thunder and Then you can think about how much lightning is five seconds per mile. water you have on hand. “Buy ahead This is five miles per second. So if S wave relative to magnitude doesn’t bers a reporter calling her at home on your bottled water,” she says, “and you count for three seconds, you’re follow a formula. “You have to do it while her bed was still shaking. “He make sure that you have food you’re 15 miles from the earthquake.” from a table,” Jones says, “because it’s wanted to know what the magnitude actually going to eat.” She remembers When the S wave hits—if you can approximate and very logarithmic.” was. I told him, ‘How do you think I one elementary school she visited hang on once you’ve ducked under When Jones visits schools,she do this? Telepathy?’” Nevertheless, that had stocked 1,000 cans of tuna a heavy object—start counting again. teaches children how to count ground Jones had been counting, and knew with no supporting jars of mayon- “If you have six seconds of strong motion to help them manage their the answer. naise. “What kid in the world will eat shaking, that’s a magnitude 6 to 6.5. earthquake panic. “It turns them “I was pretty sure it was a 7 because dry tuna fish?” If you have 25, it’s closer to a 7. If into scientists instead of scared kids,” I had counted for 30 seconds,” she Finally, in order to forestall your it’s essentially over in a second, it’s she says. And she habitually does it says. “It was actually 24 seconds; I had own anxiety when the earth starts shak- a magnitude 5.” Unlike the P wave-S herself. When the Landers earth- overestimated because I had felt the ing, learn to count like a geologist. wave differential, the duration of the quake hit in 1992, Jones remem- reverberation.” She can’t remember An Eerie Quiet on the Southern San Andreas 56/57 Judith Lewis

if she gave the reporter the scoop. “I projects that relate to one another. concrete. In each of the concrete build- “We’re hoping we have a real public don’t think I did,” she says. “I didn’t There’s a lot more cooperation in the ings that collapsed, roughly 10 percent earthquake day. Our goal is to get every- want to encourage him.” seismology field than we’ve had at times of the occupants died. body in Southern California to duck, What will happen to Los Angeles in the past.” cover, and hold at 10 a.m. on November in an 8.2—or, in Jones’s more modest 13; to see if we can get 22 million people scenario, a 7.8—on the southern San hope our collapse rate is to do the earthquake drill.” She has Andreas? That’s another quandary the to 100 differ- not as high as it was in Turkey, but when high hopes for public education from multi-hazards project seeks to resolve, ent experts have been assembled to those buildings do collapse, we think the project. But whether it all results by teaming with engineers, economists, tackle the engineering problems of that the same casualty rate will apply in making Southern California safer and data specialists to model potential earthquake preparedness, coordinated here,” Jones claims. “We need to know during earthquakes depends on more outcomes. by Keith Porter out of Caltech. One where these buildings are.” factors than Jones can control. “It’s sort of the second-order effects group will examine the earthquake’s And once the engineering phase of “Science can make the community of the earthquake that we’re interested effect on steel-moment buildings, or the project has been completed, Jones safer. But science alone cannot. I will in,” Jones says. “The first-order effect skyscrapers; CalTrans will use the data says, “we’re only halfway done. Then never be able to do anything to make is that when you’re near the fault, it’s to test its transportation infrastructure. we’re working with economists and soci- Southern California safer from earth- Still another program, the National ologists and psychologists and public quakes,” she acknowledges. “I can only “My success depends on Earthquake Engineers Simulation, or health experts to try and look at the pull together information that I can getting somone else to do NEES, will examine “non-ductile” human costs of this. How is this affect- explain to a decision-maker who can the right thing.” reinforced concrete buildings. “Now ing our economic systems? What are the make us safer. there’s a euphemism for you!” Jones chances of a long-term depression in “Which means I am setting for a lot worse. But there are phenomena says. “Non-ductile means brittle, but the L.A. area following the earthquake? myself a terribly difficult goal. My success like the damage Santa Monica suffered calling a building brittle makes people What are the casualties, the psychological depends on getting someone else to do during Northridge. Can we model feel really bad, so we use a different impacts?” The state’s office of emergen- the right thing.” that ahead of time if we understand the word. But it doesn’t change the fact that cy services and office of homeland secu- basins well enough? Can we understand those buildings kill people.” The 7.6 rity are both involved, with a promise to what happens to the buildings? magnitude quake that hit on a long conduct an emergency drill on Novem- “There’s a lot of synergy going on fault near the Turkish city of Izmit in ber 13, 2008, based on the multi-hazard between the research groups right now. 1999 killed 17,000 people. Most were project’s earthquake model. There’s a lot of excitement, there’s a buried in high-rise apartment build- “We’re calling it the Great South- lot of data, a lot of people working on ings made of non-ductile reinforced ern California ShakeOut,” Jones says. 58/59

Charles Elachi and Andrea Donnellan

THE Key to predicting earthquakes, or at least forecasting the probability of earthquakes, is determining where hidden faults lie and how fast those faults are moving. Charles Elachi is the director of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory and vice president of the California Institute of Technology; Andrea Donnellan is the deputy division manager of the Earth and Space Sciences Divi- sion at JPL and a research professor at the University of Southern California. Here they tell us how space technology can help discover and diagnose quake-prone rifts in the earth’s crust. Kevin Wong Kevin Preparing L.A. for Potential Earthquakes: Applications of Space Technology 60/61 Charles Elachi and Andrea Donnellan

hundred billion 6.7 Northridge earthquake in 1994 resulting damaging waves propagate. Fault, which travels from the south dollars. That number surely attracts was a $20 billion-plus event that Space-borne technologies, in the end of the Salton Sea, northward and anyone’s attention. It equals eight killed over 60 people. form of Global Positioning Systems offshore near Mendocino. North of percent of the US federal budget and (GPS) and radar observations are Los Angeles, the fault changes orien- exceeds the annual budget of every state improving our understanding of tation to a more east/westerly direc- in the Union. It outstrips the budget with such earthquakes and earthquake process- tion. This change in orientation causes of California by over $50 billion. staggering consequences and the es by precisely measuring defor- north-south compressive stresses Two hundred billion dollars in associated potential loss of life from mation of the Earth’s surface. The creating mountains to the north of a few seconds. This is the estimated an L.A. earthquake, as well as result- Earth’s tectonic plates are continually Los Angeles and the numerous thrust amount of damage that will occur ing fires, disruption, panic, etc., it moving, grinding together and creat- faults that are found throughout the if a magnitude 7 earthquake—the behooves our advanced society to do ing enormous stresses where they Los Angeles basin (Figure 1). same size quake as hit San Francis- whatever we can to be prepared. So meet at plate boundaries. This stress In the mid-1990s, scientists co in 1989—were to hit Los Ange- one question is, can our scientific accumulation is released in earth- started measuring surface motions in les. Southern California is prone to and technological advances help us to quakes. The strain from this accu- the Los Angeles region using GPS. earthquakes and riddled with faults. understand and predict earthquakes, mulation of stress can be measured Due to technologies developed at One quarter of the earthquake risk and therefore help in mitigating at the millimeter-per-year level and NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, for the United States lies in South- their effects and be prepared to react provide a global view of plate tecton- GPS accurately measures the positions ern California. Since the annual- effectively whenever and wherever ics, earthquakes, and volcanoes. of points on the ground anywhere in ized earthquake losses in the United they happen? the world to within just a few milli- States are $4.4 billion per year, the Clearly, understanding when and meters. Using GPS, we have been able economic losses to the Los Ange- where earthquakes may occur would Ring of Fire, a series to determine that the northern Los les area from earthquakes are quite help mitigate loss of life and property of plate boundaries where frequent Angeles basin is shortening at a rate of large, and likely to remain so. If the from these damaging events. Recent earthquakes and volcanic eruptions about 7 mm per year. The shortening Puente Hills fault, which is located technological advances in high accu- occur, encircles the Pacific Ocean. continues to the west, in the Ventura underneath downtown Los Angeles, racy global positioning systems and Southern California lies on the basin, along route 126 between Magic were to rupture in a magnitude 7.0 space remote observation and moni- boundary between the Pacific and Mountain and Ventura. Prior to the earthquake, the economic damage toring, associated with scientific North American plates. Although the Northridge earthquake we were able is estimated to be $210 billion and modeling have enabled us to signifi- plate boundary is quite broad, on the to determine that faults on either deaths would be expected to exceed cantly improve our understanding order of 100–200 kilometers, it is side of the basin were active, suggest- 400. By comparison, the magnitude of earthquake physics and how the marked primarily by the San Andreas ing that the region could produce a Preparing L.A. for Potential Earthquakes: Applications of Space Technology 62/63 Charles Elachi and Andrea Donnellan

Figure 1. Southern California as seen from space. The orange arrows show the motion of the Figure 2. InSAR concept, showing satellite and resulting image were an earthquake to occur Pacific and North American plates. The San Andreas Fault can be seen in the relief, starting at near Los Angeles. The fringes are like contours on a map, showing the amount of surface motion the Salton Sea and continuing north of Los Angeles and south of the Mojave Desert. The red ar- towards the satellite. rows show how the stress and motion change in the Los Angeles vicinity. magnitude 6 or higher earthquake earthquake. The Santa Susana Moun- than two years following the earth- illuminating earthquake processes on a thrust fault. The occurrence of tains, just north of Granada Hills, quake. Ninety percent of the motion never before observed. We are now the Northridge magnitude 6.7 earth- grew 40 cm during the earthquake. after the earthquake was aseismic, or seeing that earthquake faults inter- quake was consistent with the GPS In the two years following the earth- quiet, and could not be measured act. By using space-borne observa- observations, showing the value of quake the mountains continued to with seismometers. The earthquake tions and supercomputers through applying space-borne technologies to grow another 12 cm. Surprisingly, also caused shallow quiet creep on NASA’s QuakeSim project, among earthquake hazard assessment. this continued growth was as a result the Sierra Madre fault, which runs others, we can study how one earth- Both GPS and Interferometric of “afterslip” on the Northridge the length of the San Gabriel Moun- quake can either trigger an earth- Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) fault. In essence, the fault broke, tains in the northern L.A. basin. quake on another fault, or reduce the were used to measure how the ground slipped during the earthquake, and The measurement of surface motions stress such that an otherwise impend- moved as a result of the Northridge then continued to slip for more from space-borne technologies are ing earthquake does not occur. Preparing L.A. for Potential Earthquakes: Applications of Space Technology 64/65 Charles Elachi and Andrea Donnellan

Following the Northridge earth- Applications from Space: National understanding of associated ground quake, NASA, the National Science Imperatives for the Next Decade and shaking and building response, will Foundation, the U.S. Geological Beyond” from the National Research enable better mitigation strategies— Survey, and the W.M. Keck founda- Council (NRC), recommends the such as targeted retrofitting of build- tion supported the establishment of launch of a US InSAR satellite called ings—ultimately reducing loss of life the Southern California Integrated DESDynI (Deformation, Ecosys- and property from major earthquakes GPS Network (SCIGN) as a state of tem Structure, and Dynamics of Ice) in Los Angeles. the art dense GPS network for study- in the 2010-2013 time frame. The ing surface motions in Southern report represents the consensus of California. The network is enabling U.S. scientists on critical earth obser- us to see how strain is partitioned vations from space that are required across the numerous faults in Los to address issues for climate change, Angeles and Southern California, water resources, ecosystem health, improving our assessment of earth- human health, solid-earth natural quake hazards in the region. hazards, and weather. Among other InSAR is one of the newest appli- things, the mission would be used to cations for studying earthquakes. improve forecasts of the likelihood of Unlike GPS, which precisely measures earthquakes. the motion of a point on the ground, Preparing Los Angeles for poten- InSAR produces an image of how tial earthquakes requires an improved the entire ground moves (Figure understanding of how earthquakes 2). The Landers earthquake was the occur and how earthquake faults first earthquake to be observed with interact. Space-borne technologies, InSAR, using the European Radar coupled with computer models, will Satellite-1 (ERS-1). While existing enable us to better understand these radar satellites are used to produce processes through measurement and interferograms, none to date has been modeling of surface motions, which optimized for studying earthquakes. will ultimately lead to better fore- A recent National Academy of casting of these damaging events. Sciences report, “Earth Science and Improved forecasts coupled with an 66/67

Excerpt from

Carey McWilliams

As you read this piece about the 1933 Long Beach earthquake, you might be struck by how many of the myths that reigned then persist to this day (there was not then, nor is there now, any such thing as “earthquake weather”). A lawyer and historian who for two decades edited The Nation magazine, Carey McWilliams authored many influential books on the history and landscape of Southern Cali- fornia, including Southern California: Island on Land. Sung-Hae Baik Sung-Hae Excerpt from The Folklore of Earthquakes 68/69 Carey McWilliams

the basis of their reaction and so the Californians make out a collection of widely dispersed districts the loathsome “close days” respon- to the word “earthquake,” Califor- fairly plausible case for the superior- connected by boulevards of racing sible for calamities that could not, in nians can be divided into three class- ity of their own lore to the so-called traffic. loyalty, be imputed to any other kind es: first, the innocent late arrivals scientific pronouncements elicited by of weather. who have never felt an earthquake, the press from the staffs of the local The belief in the oil-drainage but who go about avowing to all and universities whenever a quake gives belief in earthquake superstition is of equal antiquity and sundry that “it must be fun”; next, another blow to the tourist trade. weather is persistent and unshak- tenacity. There is, as a matter of fact, those who have experienced a slight able. I have heard old residents quar- a slightly melodramatic quality about quake and should know better, but rel endlessly among themselves over oil fields. The great shining storage who nonetheless persist in propagat- popular fancy about the exact definition of it, but they all tanks glisten in the sun; the forest ing the fable that the San Francisco earthquakes has crystallized into a agree that it exists and that it invari- of derricks assume fantastic shapes quake of 1906 was the only major trinity of superstitions. They are as ably presages the coming of a quake. in mist and cloud, light and dark- upheaval the state has ever suffered; follows: that tall buildings in a quake Despite the fact that it is common ness; and the ceaseless thumping of and last, the victims of a real earth- area are peculiarly perilous struc- knowledge that earthquakes have the pumps makes for an atmosphere quake—for example, the residents tures; that quakes are caused by the occurred in summer and in winter, of doubt and misgiving. Oil drillers of San Francisco, Santa Barbara, drainage of oil from the bowels of the in spring and fall, and every hour themselves are a notoriously super- or more recently, Long Beach.* To earth, and that they are invariably of the day or night, regardless of stitious breed of men. these last, the world is full of terror. preceded by periods of what is known temperature, the belief in this earth- They are supersensitive to the slight- as “earthquake weather.” Los Ange- quake weather survives. In the popu- est rattles and jars and move uneasily les, under the influence of a wide- lar sense, the phrase seems to desig- the range of popular whenever a heavy truck passes along spread belief in the first of these nate a close, stifling, sunless, muggy fancy is not limited to any particular the highway. superstitions, adopted an ordinance atmosphere. One might be ready to set of superstitions. After the recent This diversity, based on dissimi- limiting the heights of buildings years believe that such weather does pres- temblor that caused such heavy damage lar experience, is probably respon- ago. As a consequence of this ordi- age the coming of quakes if it were at Long Beach and the surrounding sible for the amazing earthquake nance (which is also said to have been not for the at that the description towns, I was able to cull the following folklore that thrives in California. favored by local realtors animated by obviously refers to an atmospher- yarns from the local press and from Fresh outpourings of popular fancy ulterior motives), the city has become ic condition that, in California, is conversations overheard during the appear whenever the region feels annoyingly decentralized. In fact, if the subject of universal detestation. next few days. It seems that a hen laid another twister. Science is not as sure its tendency to decentralized is not The conclusion is almost irresistible three eggs a few moments after the about earthquakes as it ought to be, corrected, it will soon become a that the residents have merely made first shock was felt; that a woman who Excerpt from The Folklore of Earthquakes 70/71 Carey McWilliams

had been suffering from paralysis for that a worker in a chemical plant near the quake caused dozens of miscar- subsequent temblors being regarded years was cured by the vibrations of Long Beach was thrown thirty feet in riages in Long Beach, and that an as merely “echoes” or “repercussions” the quake and walked forth from an the air after the first shock, and that, earthquake will often cause perma- of the first; that the safest place to be invalid’s room without assistance; that on hitting the ground, he bounced nent, and annoying, irregularities when an earthquake occurs is indoors, the quake was predicted by the “scien- skyward and was thus tossed up and among women; that every building outdoors, in a doorway, standing next tists” weeks before it occurred, but down three times “in rapid succes- in Southern California that was not to an interior partition, lying relaxed that the information was suppressed sion”: that the earthquake was caused damaged by the quake is “earthquake on the floor; that the outdoor camp- by certain sinister interests variously by the moving mountain near Duran- proof”; that another earthquake will ing and enforced communalization known as the big me, the bankers, go, Colorado; that an automobile, be experienced within three months of life after the quake in Long Beach and the university presidents; that while being driven along a boulevard “at the other end of the fault”; that a produced widespread immorality; a woman was taking a bath in Long in Long Beach, shook so hard that it cross on a Long Beach church was not that it is extremely dangerous to rush Beach when the first shock came, lost all four tires; that the undertakers damaged, though the rest of the build- out of doors during an earthquake, causing a section of the wall to fall in Long Beach didn’t charge a penny ing was destroyed; that the quake will for the reason that “great cracks” are in and block the doorway, so that she for the sixty or more interments disturb the production of oil by caus- likely to occur in the paving, or one was forced to remain in the bathroom following the quake; that the quake ing it to flow from one underground may be struck by a runaway vehicle; without clothes for three days and was the first manifestation of the reservoir to another; that every life that the last quake occurred in Cali- nights until she was rescued by some awful curse placed on Southern Cali- lost during the quake was due sole- fornia in Santa Barbara in 1926, and Legionnaire; that sixteen boys were fornia by the Rev. Robert P. Shuler ly to the obdurate willfulness of the the first in San Francisco in 1906, and caught in the plunge of the Polytech- after its residents failed to elect him dead in not doing what the speaker that, between these dates, California nic High School in Long Beach, but United States Senator; that sailors on would have brilliantly done under the did not experience an earthquake; that they have never been reported vessels a mile or more off shore from same circumstances; that an earth- that every community in Southern missing, and that their parents have Palos Verdes saw the hills (quite high) quake is much more terrifying than California which escaped serious been hushed up; that while stand- disappear from sight; that the boot- a cyclone, but not quite as terrify- damage in the last quake “is not in the ing in a neighboring building gazing leggers of Long Beach saved hundreds ing as a tornado, and just slightly less path of the fault,” and is, therefore, out at the new Los Angeles City Hall of lives by their public-spirited dona- ghastly than a hurricane; that Cali- immune from peril; that the earth- (twenty floors and a tower), a group tion of large quantities of alcohol to fornians should construct earthquake quake, followed by the appearance of of people saw the hall sway out of the medical authorities; that women cellars, just as Middle Westerners a mighty meteor on March 24, pres- sight, come back into sight, sway out showed the most courage during the build cyclone cellars; that the “first ages the beginning of the end. of sight in the opposite direction and quake and that men can’t stand up quake is always the hardest,” and that, then come to rest “with an awful jar”; under earthquakes; that the shock of in reality, there is only one quake, the 72/73

SECTION 2: building for the big one 74/75

[A]s I reeled about on the pavement trying to keep my footing, I saw a sight! The entire front of a tall four-story brick building in Third street sprung outward like a door and fell sprawling across the street, raising a dust like a great volume of smoke!

—Mark Twain, Roughing It (1872) Building for the Big One 76/77 Judith Lewis

1968, a scientist by the name of strong shaking, more than 7,000 gists worry that older brick buildings, tion with Aileen Farnan Antonier in this of Nick Ambraseys, at 39 already a pre- classrooms collapsed during the middle as well as some aging commercial and next section, describes what engineers eminent world authority on earthquakes, of the school day, killing tens of thou- industrial concrete buildings, could col- learned about building after Northridge; seaquakes and tsunamis, gave a lecture sands of children. In many areas where lapse in a period of prolonged, intense Caltech President Jean-Lou Chameau at Cambridge University that, according the schools came down, more sturdily shaking. Even some high-rise buildings and former Provost Paul Jennings to geologist and author Roger Bilham, constructed buildings remained standing. –otherwise known as “steel moment- discuss how engineers and seismolo- would forever change the way the world California has strict life-safety pro- frame” buildings–may tumble. gists, in the tradition of Abramseys, thought about earthquakes. “In 50 short vision written into its building codes that have been collaborating to predict how minutes,” Bilham has written, “[Am- have saved lives for three-quarters of a a certain types of construction will braseys] demonstrated links between century, holding death tolls from modern the following section, en- respond to an extended period of strong engineering and history, earthquakes quakes firmly in the double digits. (The gineers, architects, and others weigh shaking; and architect Thom Mayne cel- and civilization, and scientists and 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake near San in on what it means to build, and then ebrates the inherent beauty of a wood- society.” His most famous take-away Francisco, claimed 67 lives; that same live without worry, in a zone of seismic frame house–a structure “so elastic,” quote from that lecture was one Bilham year, more than 10,000 died in an earth- activity. Susan Tubbesing, executive he says, “that everything can roll down would again invoke 20 years later, after quake of the same force near Mexico director of the Earthquake Engineer- one side, yet they don’t collapse.” Just a deadly quake killed tens of thousands in City.) Public schools in California do even ing Research Institute, in a conversa- don’t build one on the edge of a cliff. Armenia. “Earthquakes don’t kill people,” better, thanks to a 1933 law that governs Ambraseys said. “Buildings do.” their construction, which is discussed in That widely circulated quote might the following pages. sound almost axiomatic by now, so obvious it is that no one dies in an earth- quake who isn’t under something that geological time is long, falls. And still, all around the world, when and Los Angeles by its standards has significant earthquakes roll through been around for less than a flash of light large, modern cities, people continue to in a thousand years of sun. We have not be crushed in the debris of falling build- yet had an earthquake to match the one ings. The magnitude 7.9 earthquake that on the Longmenshan Fault in Sichuan devastated Sichuan Province, China on Province, although, as mentioned else- May 12, 2008, is only the most recent, where in this book, we can expect one. heartrending example: After 100 seconds Many structural engineers and geolo- 78/79

Excerpt from

John McPhee

This scene from John McPhee’s Pulitzer Prize-winning book, Annals of the Former World (1999), was originally the final story in Assembling California (1992), the chronicle of a 15-year-long geologi- cal tour McPhee took in the company of geologist Eldrige Moores. It takes place at Mussel Rock, a towering slab of Mesozoic-age green- stone shoved up by subducting plates at the point where the San Andreas Fault meets the sea. “It’s a good place,” McPhee observed, “to sit and watch the plates move.” And to marvel at the nonchalance of those who build their homes at fault’s edge. Eric Lin Eric Excerpt from Annals of the Former World 80/81 John McPhee

Earthquake. ocean, to have been able to afford it. He had bought it six months before. A small flex of mobility in a planetary In this particular location, real estate shell so mobile that nothing on it was cheap. He had bought the house resembles itself as it was some years for a hundred and seventy thousand. I before, when nothing on it resem- could barely hear him over the sound bled itself as it was some years before of the waves. that, when nothing on it... “If it going to go down, it going to Not long ago, at Mussel Rock, a go down,” he shouted, and he flailed man named Araullo was fishing. He the green sea. “You never know what had a long pole that looked Euro- going to happen. Only God knows. pean. He seemed not so much to be Hey, we got the whole view of the casting his lure as sweeping it through ocean. We go the Mussel Rock. What the sea. His home was near the top of else we need for? This is life. If it go the cliff. He pointed proudly. The down, we go down with it.” one nearest the view. He had come down the trail and jumped over water to a wide, flat cormorants were boulder. The seismic crack that came present, and the pelicans. The big down the cliff ran into the water and fishing boulder echeloned with under the boulder. He was fishing shears. From somewhere near Araul- the San Andreas Fault, and he was lo’s house, a hang glider had left the having no luck. jumpy earth and now hovered safely I asked him, “What are you after?” above us. He said, “Sea perch. I also get Araullo ignored the hang glider salmon and striped bass here. Now I and kept on swinging his pole. don’t know where they are. Someday, “I don’t know where they are,” he they come.” said again. “But someday they come. He said that he felt very fortunate They always come.” to have a house so close to the fish and 82/83

An interview with Thom Mayne by Dana Hutt

Pritzker Prize-winning architect Thom Mayne is the founder of the Los Angeles-based firm Morphosis. His most recent buildings include the acclaimed CalTrans District Seven Headquarters in downtown Los Angeles and the United States Office Building in San Francisco. He also designed the 68-story Phare Tower, which, when completed in 2012, will be the tallest building to be constructed in Paris since the Eiffel Tower in 1889. Mayne told Dana Hutt, director of Architectural Documentation and Special Projects at Art Center College of Design, about his thoughts Hsing Ling Tsai Ling Hsing on the relationship of earthquakes and the built environment. Earthquakes are Fabulous 84/85 An interview with Thom Mayne Dana Hutt

In Los Angeles, you approach the work knowing that it will heaviness, and as seismic safety laws The more knowledge you have by necessity have structural redundancy that will produce are constantly being updated and gives you a different way of deciding a different kind of sensibility. strengthened, that’s a trend that is how you’re going to build. Building not going to reverse. In Los Ange- in Los Angeles is also an economic Earthquakes don’t disturb me what was unfolding. Northridge was les, you approach the work knowing issue because dealing with these situ- very severe, with collapses and fires that it will by necessity have struc- ations is expensive. It has to do with Everybody has different thresholds as close to me as Santa Monica. But, tural redundancy that will produce a how we understand nature and our for things that frighten or disturb still, I kind of shrugged. different kind of sensibility. It does relationship with nature; it is part of them, and this is an area that I’m in fact change the work because you a contextualism. Of course this city is somehow very relaxed about. In 1971, Earthquakes change the work completely rule out certain options complicated because it has multiple when the San Fernando quake hit, I of architects as to how a building touches the ecologies, each with its own specific was living in Venice, above the bait ground. Our federal office build- requirements: the low coastline, the and tackle shop at the end of the Earthquakes have hugely affected ing in San Francisco is a concrete edge of a sea cliff, mountain ridges pier. The building rocked around, what we do. When you also work building,but it’s thin, so it was a very and valleys, the desert, downtown. bookshelves tipped over, and every- nationally and internationally, you complicated building to make work These conditions are all differ- thing ended up on the floor. It was in become acutely aware that because within a high seismic zone. It had ent, and we have a choice of how to the morning hours, and after look- of the seismic threat everything in just a ridiculous amount of steel and respond to those conditions. ing around and surveying the mess, Los Angeles gets thicker, bigger, became hugely heavy. I climbed into bed and went back to and kind of clumsier. We’re work- Although you’re not working Earthquakes don’t defeat the sleep. I woke up two or three hours ing in Paris right now, on the Phare based directly on the idea of the wood-frame house (usually) later, turned on the news, went to Tower, which is really light and deli- earthquake, you do have to work have a coffee down the street, and cate, something that is possible only within certain parameters and learn If you’re in a little wood-frame house, came back and spent the next couple because it’s a zero seismic zone. The to deal with things quite differently. there’s often not much to worry about of days cleaning up my house. Then, same was true in Austria, years ago, And it starts with structure. As an beyond checking the gas connection in 1994, I was living in Ocean Park, when we worked on the Hypo Bank. architect, seismic concerns infil- to ensure that it’s flexible. In an older about a mile from my old place but Location has to be a critical element trate once you realize it’s not the house that sits on an old-fashioned in a really stable little house built with in an architect’s thinking. vertical, but the horizontal force— foundation, which might not be made sheeted plywood, and there was a bit In Southern California, you the lateral load—that’s of utmost with the strongest materials, you of rattling in the morning. I got up, come to realize that one of the importance, and that really changes should probably upgrade the foun- turned on the television and watched continuities of work is going to be a your thinking. dation. But what is so lovely about a Earthquakes are Fabulous 86/87 An interview with Thom Mayne Dana Hutt

wood-frame house is its incredible If you buy a house on the level: To keep people actively aware a a crevice. It’s wild. You’re literally redundancy, with thousands of little edge of a cliff along the coast whole lifetime, where they may never looking at the earth as it’s moving, connections made by nails, versus a in Pacific Palisades, how can once activate their knowledge or their and as it has moved over millions big building that can have a single- it be startling when the cliff expertise. On a psychological level I of years. Then you go around the system failure, or even the failure of gives way and suddenly you find that really interesting. If you buy island, and there’s a spewing volcano a system and a backup system. These have no property? a house on the edge of a cliff along and natural hot springs, and you feel houses, even the ones built in the the coast in Pacific Palisades, how can like you’re there at the creation of the 1920s and ’30s, are so elastic that the unrestrainable power of the sea, it be startling when the cliff gives way universe or you’re somehow witness- everything can roll down one side, which is part of the natural condition. and suddenly you have no property, ing the making of this planet. It’s like yet they don’t collapse. Again, the In Los Angeles, earthquakes—like the and perhaps find yourself in physi- Italo Calvino’s “Cosmicomics.” main danger is that when they tip, the fires that regularly occur during our cal danger? But that’s the nature of Emotionally, I love an earth- gas connection can break. Beyond fire “season”—are actually a normal buying that type of property. quake and the fact that it’s instan- that, the integrity of the home’s occurrence. It’s part of living in L.A. taneous. An earthquake causes this site is often the biggest problem in I am constantly perplexed as to why Earthquakes are fabulous huge wave, like a land tsunami that L.A., with its mountains and edges so many people who live here don’t hits your house. I remember the one of water. There’s going to be a lot of even consider the impact an earth- Iceland has active volcanoes and in Venice: there was a bam! Just one movement of earth, and that’s where quake could and will have on them. is literally on two, moving tectonic solid hit and everything collapses. you’re going to find problems that It’s intriguing that earthquakes are plates.* [The ridge between them is] And then after that there was all this are unsolvable. something that you learn to live with— like the San Andreas Fault. Part of it sound. It’s like jazz—hugely energiz- like all relationships between human is quite wide, and you can see down ing and invigorating. Fabulous. Earthquakes are part of a beings and nature. natural cycle Somehow, earthquake-prepared- ness is hard to keep attentive to; it’s For me, earthquakes are in tune with like a seat belt. You might never use my knowledge of nature. Earthquakes a seat belt in your whole life – in fact make total sense; they are supposed most people will never use a seat belt to happen, and they’re supposed to – but you put it on everyday, knowing happen here. If you’re sailing, you that it only has to be used once to save accept huge potential dangers because your life. And earthquake-prepared- you’re aware of the environment, of ness is this issue at a huge macro * Iceland straddles the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, which is the boundary between the North American and Eurasian plates. 88/89

An interview with Jean-Lou Chameau & Paul Jennings by Judith Lewis

The former dean of the Georgia Tech College of Engineering, Jean-Lou Chameau’s technical interests include sustainable technol- ogy, environmental geotechnology, soil dynamics, earthquake engi- neering, and liquefaction of soils. Chameau received his secondary and undergraduate education in France; in 1980, after completing his graduate work at Stanford University, he joined the civil engineering faculty at Purdue University, where he subsequently became full Clifford Elbl Clifford Engineering from End to End: A New Approach to Modeling Seismic Activity 90/91 Judith Lewis

professor and head of the geotechnical engineering program. In that have made it possible to actually in the Southern California region. September 2006, he became Caltech’s eighth president. put it into practice. In part of that calculation, you put a Internationally renowned earthquake engineering and model of a building at any one of those seismology expert Paul Jennings has been on the California Institute What exactly does “end- points, and you can determine how a of Technology campus as a student, professor, and administrator to-end” mean? building of that type would respond for 44 years. From 1989 to 1995, he was both Vice President and if it were in that location during a big Provost; in 2004, he returned as Provost after a nine-year hiatus, earthquake on the San Andreas Fault. and remained in that position through 2007. It means you can simulate You can do this for different scenarios The two men spoke with Judith Lewis about the latest research in both the beginning and the end of the of the earthquake; where the earth- understanding seismic zones and how to engineer safe construction earthquake scenario. You can model quake starts up north and propagates within them. the source—where the energy is actu- toward the south, for example, which is ally released by a sudden movement bad for us in Los Angeles, or if it starts along the fault—and you can propa- at the south end and goes up toward gate the seismic waves of the earth- the northwest, which is good for Los As leaders of a large insti- modeling the process from end to end. quake through all the different kinds Angeles. There’s a Doppler effect to tution in an earthquake- That’s one of the significant advances of geology in the L.A. basin. There’s seismic energy: the energy gets focused prone city, what advances in in the research. a big basin of sediment out here in the direction of rupture. So if the research at Caltech today are 30,000 feet deep, and in Los Angeles rupture’s coming toward you, you get most significant in terms of we’ve also got mountains and ridges. stronger shaking than if the rupture’s the public’s understanding of (Jean-Lou Chameau) I rem- All of those geological features affect going away from you. earthquakes? ember being a graduate student 30 the modeling. Then you can apply those different years ago and we were discussing this scenarios to different types of build- idea on the blackboard. Professors What do you learn from end- ings. You can have a modern 20-story (Paul Jennings) One of the were showing the concept, and we to-end modeling? steel-frame building designed accord- things that demonstrates the breadth had to make assumptions to develop ing to the latest standards, and then of what we can do is called end-to-end code models to do it. So the concept you can also ask, “How would a build- modeling. The engineers and seismol- has been in place for a long time, but Using a geometric visual ing built 20 years ago respond at the ogists are working together and taking it’s only the computational tools— image of the fault, you can calculate same site?” a big earthquake on the San Andreas including the two- and three-dimen- the ground shaking at a large number Fault as an example, and they’re now sional graphics—of the last few years of points on the surface of the ground Engineering from End to End: A New Approach to Modeling Seismic Activity 92/93 Judith Lewis

Is there any way of deter- local differences in loading, materi- A big earthquake could come the exact calculations, but visually, you mining whether a rupture als, and structure conditions. and nothing much might can make a movie that shows the fault will come toward us from the happen, and the reason moving, the ground shaking and the north or the southwest? could be that we were just building shaking. You can put things End-to-end modeling also very lucky on the geology. together in a way that people feel they helps you quantify the uncertain- And the next one may not be can address the problem. No. It could also start in the ties a little. There are uncertainties as big, but everything else middle and go both ways. All of these about the performance of a building goes wrong. How do you know that the things have happened. If you have a big and its material properties. There are results your calculations and earthquake, a seismologist can tell you uncertainties about the propagation which way it propagates. That’s a very modeling predict accurately afterward where the main source of calculation—how waves move—and big unknown. The unknowns with the represent what will happen energy started and which direction it there’s uncertainty about what actu- building are sizable but they’re not in the real world? ruptured, but to predict it beforehand ally happens in the earthquake itself. nearly as large as the uncertainties in seems beyond anybody’s capability. Where are the sources of energy release the geological part of the equation. and which way does it go? That complicates life because a big We’ve been refining these What are your expectations It turns out that it’s helpful for the earthquake could come and nothing processes over the past 15 to 20 years, for how this information will public and the specialists, too, to ask, much might happen, and the reason and actually have the measurements be used, and how people will “Where are the big unknowns here? could be that we were just very lucky from past events. If an earthquake react to it? And can we do anything about them?” on the geology. And the next one occurs now, we can make a rough calcu- By addressing these questions, we hope may not be as big, but everything else lation of the strength of the shaking in to influence decisions. goes wrong. an affected region even before we get The end-to-end work, which That’s not nice news in some the instrumental measurements. we couldn’t do 10 or 15 years ago, In what area of seismologic sense, but it certainly helps with a more Also, there have been enough provides an important new tool research is there the most realistic understanding and more real- advances in instrumentation that you for architects and engineers. They uncertainty? istic policies, because with end-to-end can calibrate these things. When you can now see what would happen to modeling, you’re looking at the whole have a sizable earthquake today, it’s a particular structure, and design a picture, from the earthquake to the recorded on hundreds of seismom- building slightly differently in one The largest unknowns are in response of the building. It frames the eters. From those, you can go back part of town, say, than in another, the geologic process itself: how big consequences in a way that people can and get some details of how the source taking into account uncertainties, an earthquake is and where it is and grasp. Maybe they can’t understand actually generated the energy. A Engineering from End to End: A New Approach to Modeling Seismic Activity 94/95 Judith Lewis

fault may rupture for 50 miles, but mentation and the most concern about of people were killed in unreinforced If you could find out how the the energy’s not distributed evenly potential damage. adobe buildings. Fortunately, we now stress is building up on the fault, in along it. It’s very uneven in fact. But have very few adobe homes in South- enough detail to be useful, that would you can look at the calculations and Since those big earthquakes ern California because of that event dramatically reduce the uncertainty in get some idea of where the energy are so infrequent, how do and what people learned from it. In the calculations, because you’d know was released. you capture people’s atten- terms of keeping people interested, where the energy release is coming Once you’ve gone back and done tion and reinvigorate this one of the things that does help is that from. that, then you can do the forward topic when there’s nothing there’s better worldwide communica- On the structural engineering calculation and say, okay, now, let happening seismically? tion, so when earthquakes happen in side, the buildings we’re using now the energy be released the same way other parts of the world people are are important buildings, like steel- on this computer, and then let’s reminded what can happen if you’re frame buildings, but they’re not go out and calculate the motion in It’s human nature to lose not prepared for it. geometrically complex. They’re not every place you had a seismogram and interest. No one moves to act with- odd shapes. We haven’t modeled any compare the calculated value with the out actually experiencing the risk. If You mentioned that end-to- state-of-the-art architecture. As an observed value. you look at the history of the build- end modeling took some 30 incremental advance, we’d like to This calibrates the modeling of ing codes, basically they changed every years to go from concept to extend what we’re doing to a wider the geologic structure. If you do that time there was a significant earthquake practice. What do you expect class of realistic buildings. enough times, you get pretty good that revealed problems we didn’t to be the next leap forward at modeling and have confidence in anticipate well before. There is an in the decades ahead? Is there a cycle of seismic your calculations. earthquake, and there are commis- activity that will help us sions and committees that start to look anticipate large earthquakes? at the research that was done before, I think that we will start to One thing to remember, and they change the code. And noth- better understand how the earth- though, is that although we have quite ing significant then happens until the quake is actually rupturing at its We wish we knew. We’ve had a bit of information from small and next earthquake. source—how it is actually occurring— all kinds of patterns in the past. We’ve moderate size earthquakes, we have as well as a better simulation of how had gaps for significant periods of time much less information available from it propagates. And that will remove a where nothing much happens. We’ve very large ones. They don’t happen This goes back to the 1872 major part of the geological uncer- had clusters of earthquakes where a lot very often, and they rarely happen in earthquake, which led to the banning tainty of the event. happens over time. Sometimes for a areas where you have the most instru- of adobe construction, because a lot particular big earthquake you have a Engineering from End to End: A New Approach to Modeling Seismic Activity 96/97 Judith Lewis

foreshock series that keeps increasing. It’s a very interesting problem Technically, scientifically, it At Caltech, we don’t set our One Chinese earthquake was “predict- because it’s a tremendously large event, makes sense to expect precursor activity priorities from the top down. What ed” on the basis of foreshock activity. and it releases huge amounts of energy, of some sort. It seems that we have not happens here is that when we look for But sometimes a big one just comes and it’s quite reasonable to think such really discovered yet what it is or what new faculty—as recently, when we hired out of the blue. And one of the things an event would have some precursors. could be monitored with a high level a new seismologist and a new earth- Lucy Jones studies in her research is If you take anything in the lab—rock, of repeatability and reliability. We have quake engineer—we look for the best whether there’s something in the pre- concrete, steel, or anything—and try to observed a number of different things, possible person in some reasonably earthquake sequence that gives you break it, something happens before it but they don’t seem to repeat them- broad field. We choose the very best some idea of what’s happening. It’s not breaks. And you can measure it. Most selves on a consistent basis. minds, and let our faculty lead the way. obvious whether there is. things that are much simpler have They are always asking themselves where precursors. Why does this huge event, we should go next. What’s the most releasing megatons of energy, not have It may be there are many differ- important problem to work on? This There was a lot of optimism a precursor? ent kinds of earthquakes, like there are shapes our future direction. about forecasting earthquakes in the This is a very good scientific ques- many different kinds of cancers. People late ’70s and ’80s—and in fact the tion. Is it a buildup of strain that think it’s one simple disease, but it’s What is your own personal Chinese earthquake in 1975 [7.3 you can observe on the surface of the not. It’s very complicated. Maybe response to living here in magnitude near Haicheng-Yingkow] ground? That’s one hypothesis. Is it there’s something scientifically similar earthquake country? was an example cited by some. There a change in the electromagnetic field going on with earthquakes. We know were a lot of people looking at clus- around the fault? Is that a hypothesis? there are different kinds of earthquakes, ters, and we were maybe thinking Looking at foreshock activity seems very but maybe some are really fundamen- Look outside! This is a great you could predict it based on some sensible; if you try to break a stick, it tally different in some way we haven’t and dynamic environment. The of those observations. But since then cracks first and then it breaks. Why not detected yet. weather is beautiful. It’s worth the there have been a number of cases that look for that? But, so far, nothing has risk! Nevertheless, all of us should didn’t match any of those things. I’m proved very reliable. There are so many branches be prepared for the possibility of an seeing less excitement about predica- If you’re going to study earth- to earthquake research. How earthquake. Preparation applies to tions. Instead, people are focusing quake prediction, that’s a fundamental do you decide where to prior- both individuals and organizations more efforts on forecasting the poten- thing. But if you don’t know what to itize your resources? such as Caltech. tial effects of the earthquake, through measure and where to measure it, that’s things like the end-to-end modeling. a problem. 98/99

An interview with Susan Tubbesing by Aileen Farnan Antonier

In 2000, the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute (EERI)

Anthony Van Groningen Van Anthony assembled a panel of leading scientists and engineers and, with financial support from the National Science Foundation, began a comprehensive investigation in reducing life and property loss from earthquakes. The completed report, “Security Society Against A Comprehensive Approach to Earthquake Engineering 100/101 Aileen Farnan Antonier

Catastrophic Earthquake Losses,” was published in 2003, and offers contributed their observations to FEMA and involved the Structural “a new comprehensive vision from the earthquake engineering that effort. Engineers Association of California, community for the rapid development and deployment of leading-edge As it happened, the California the Applied Technology Council, research to create safer, more resilient communities.” EERI’s Office of Emergency Services had a and the Consortium of Universities involvement has been instrumental in securing the reauthorization of regional office in Pasadena, which for Research in Earthquake Engi- funding critical research in both the applied and social sciences. couldn’t have been more convenient neering. Those three organizations Here, Susan K. Tubbesing, executive director of the Oakland, Califor- to survey the damage in Northridge. worked together and carried out tests nia, based institute, talks to Aileen Farnan Antonier about EERI’s They gave us a floor of that facility, at universities on the welds of materi- work, the motives behind the 2003 study, and what engineers learned where we set up a post-earthquake als. They came up with new materials about high-rises after Northridge. technical clearinghouse operation, a and new specifications for the weld place for engineers and scientists to materials and for the steel itself, for What is EERI’s role in the example, a seismologist would deploy report their findings each day. how it should be fabricated, and for event of an earthquake? instruments that measured aftershocks, That was the model we used in how it should then be applied. Until and a geologist would document ground establishing our current plan for a the analysis was complete and before After an earthquake, we gather infor- failures. A structural engineer would California information clearinghouse new guidelines were developed, it put mation that can be used to improve our evaluate the effects of the earthquake after an earthquake. Fortunately we a lot of major projects on hold in Los assessment of earthquake hazards, and to on the built environment, while a social haven’t been tested yet. Angeles. Some engineers switched document the effects of earthquakes on scientist would study the event’s effects materials and went to a design using the built environment and the resulting on people and businesses. The infor- What were the most impor- concrete and other approaches. social, economic, and policy impacts. mation we collect is very perishable, so it tant findings to come out of This information helps us improve is important that it’s done quickly. the Northridge analysis? How did EERI’s 2003 report structures, mitigation strategies, and Because the Northridge quake come about? emergency response procedures. Prior produced more data than ever before, The engineering community certain- to the 1994 Northridge earthquake, we we created a new team structure to ly was shocked to discover that weld- Our board of directors felt it was would send a small, self-contained group study the event. Instead of just one ed steel moment-frame structures, important to get a sense of how much of about eight to 10 people to the site person in each discipline, there were which they thought were really very it would cost to really make a difference of the event. Each person was respon- team leaders who managed sub-teams safe and very resilient, sustained in reducing earthquake losses, so they sible for a particular area, whether it was that reported back with the infor- many cracks in the welds. That dis- identified people who were leaders earth sciences, structural performance, mation they gathered. There were covery generated an $8 million in each of their fields—earth scienc- urban planning, or societal impact. For literally hundreds of people who research study that was funded by es, earthquake engineering, and the A Comprehensive Approach to Earthquake Engineering 102/103 Aileen Farnan Antonier

social sciences. They looked at the new What kind of impact has the Performance-based engineer- ing codes. An engineer can determine developments that were on the hori- report had elsewhere? ing is a concept by which buildings are what needs to be done to get the facility zon in their fields and estimated how developed to a specific performance to the level at which it will perform to much research it would take and the The biggest outcome has been the level. The designer or engineer works the expectations of the owner. kinds of implementation that would continued funding of NEES, which very closely with the building owner to This approach applies not only to be required. It was a major effort that stands for the Network for Earth- decide what that owner needs to have new buildings, but to buildings that took about a year and a half. quake Engineering Simulation, a in the way of performance after an are being strengthened and retrofit. In the end, the report determined distributed system of earthquake test- earthquake. If the owner can tolerate It really is the cutting edge of what’s that in order to reduce the acceleration ing facilities throughout the country. a building that’s down for the first six happening in engineering today. of earthquake risk and potential losses, it Fifteen experimental testing facilities weeks, there’s no reason to bring it up Another very promising area is the would take approximately $350 million are linked and able to remotely share to a standard that keeps it function- work now being done on what are called a year over a period of 20 years to begin tools, data, and simulation software ing, especially when everything around “smart buildings” and “smart materi- to get a handle on the escalating losses. for earthquake engineering testing. it is nonfunctional. A lot of perfor- als.” Smart materials are composites that That’s about three times as much money NEES enables researchers to collabo- mance-based engineering takes a very absorb large amounts of strain energy as Congress is currently putting into the rate on developing better and more broad perspective and looks at what will without deforming and will correct a National Earthquake Hazard Reduction cost-effective ways of mitigating earth- happen to the lifelines that the build- building’s response to an earthquake. Program (NEHRP), because the fund- quake damage, using experimental and ing depends on—the highways or other For example, passive and active mass ing level has not changed much from computational simulation. access to it, energy delivery systems, dampers, which act like muscles in that what it was—$100 million—in 1978. There are three earthquake engi- utilities, etc. Buildings are not islands, they flex and relax, are being put in a lot We then secured the endorsement neering research centers around the of course; they depend on all these of very tall buildings around the world. of more than 30 other organizations country: in Buffalo, New York; at other things to remain functional. The expectation is that the dampers will in support of the conclusions, took the University of Illinois at Urbana- On the other hand, in the case of a modify the way the buildings respond the document to Congress, and intro- Champaign; and the Pacific Earth- hospital that has to remain functional, to energy and enable them to perform duced it to the Science Committee of quake Engineering Research Center the engineer would design onsite ener- without damage. These are examples of the House of Representatives. Ulti- (PEER), headquartered at the Univer- gy facilities to keep the building up and exciting developments that have grown mately, the report helped to increase sity of California, Berkeley. PEER running. Similarly, if it’s a “just-in- out of today’s improved computation- the congressional authorization levels organizes its research around the time” production facility, there can’t be al abilities and advances in composite for NEHRP, but unfortunately the concept of performance-based earth- any downtime whatsoever. The owner materials. All told, if you’re an experi- actual appropriation has not gone up quake engineering. will want to have that building designed mental researcher, this is a period of very much. to levels that are far above normal build- great opportunity and promise. 104/105

Judith Lewis

For the past 75 years, public schools in California have been protected by special legislation mandating superior construction and inspection for seismic safety. Caltech’s Paul Jennings and USGS scientist Lucy Jones weigh in on the law’s significance and uncertain fate. Brenna Pribadi Brenna The Field Act: Building Stronger Schools 106/107 Judith Lewis

a 6.4 magni- In 1992, the Field Act- Field Act has also ing construction costs, developers, tude earthquake hit the city of Long certified Landers Elemen- paid off for the state’s two-year builders, and representatives of the Beach at 5:54 p.m. on March 10, tary School was immediately community colleges, which were once state’s community colleges have chafed 1933, California Assemblyman C. habitable after a magnitude part of the state’s elementary and under the law’s requirements, which Don Field, a contractor from Glen- 7.3 earthquake opened a secondary educational system and they say slows down the construction dale, was among the many who looked 12-foot crack in the earth remain subject to its laws. During of new colleges and prohibits the in horror at the city’s ruined school at its rupture point. The the 1994 the Northridge earthquake, expansion of existing campuses into buildings and registered a chill- school sat only one-half mile Pierce College and Mission College, satellite structures. ing thought: Five children had died from the epicenter. both in the hard-hit San Fernando “California’s community colleges in a school auditorium because the Valley, received the same “Intensity 9” are vital to our educational system and building had not been built to seis- It has been an astonishing success. shaking as did California State to our communities,” state Senator mic standards. Had the temblor hit “The Field Act has probably saved University at Northridge (CSUN). George Runner told his Lancaster only a few hours earlier, thousands more lives in California than any Pierce’s buildings, most of which went constituents when he introduced of children would have been killed other act of legislation,” says Caltech up in the 1950s, sustained $5 million legislation to exempt two-year colleg- within minutes. Provost Paul Jennings, a noted expert in damage; the newer Mission College es from the law in the spring of 2006. In 1933, many of the state’s schools on how buildings respond to earth- came through without damage at all. “It’s important to end the greater were built of brick and mortar, with quakes. No Field Act building has CSUN, however, a state university regulatory burdens placed on commu- high ceilings and ornate exteriors, ever failed in an earthquake. In the subject only to the California Build- nity colleges in order to build and but little structural stability. Exactly 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake, public ing Standards Code, saw its parking modernize facilities faster.” Runner’s one month after the earthquake, Field schools in San Francisco’s devastated structure turn to rubble. Overall, bill was vetoed by Governor Arnold changed all that: He persuaded the Marina district served as sturdy emer- the college sustained $400 million Schwarzenegger as “unnecessary,” but California legislature to pass a bill that gency shelters while buildings around in damage. only because similar legislation was in would require earthquake-resistant them crumbled and burned. In “That’s what inspection does for the offing: Embedded in a 2006 bill design for all the state’s public schools. 1992, the Field Act-certified Land- you,”says USGS seismologist Lucy authored by Assembly Speaker Fabian Later revised by the legislature, the ers Elementary School was immedi- Jones, who sits on the state’s Seis- Nuñez for the funding the construc- Field Act, as it became known, requires ately habitable after a magnitude 7.3 mic Safety Commission. “The Field tion of new K-12 schools was a single state agencies to oversee the design earthquake opened a 12-foot crack Act works.” paragraph amending the state’s educa- and construction of public schools in the earth at its rupture point. The Success, however, does not easily tion code to allow community colleges and hire an independent inspector to school sat only one-half mile from translate into universal popularity. In to choose between the Field Act or the certify their integrity. the epicenter. recent years of seismic quiet and soar- California Building Standards Code The Field Act: Building Stronger Schools 108/109 Judith Lewis

when building or remodeling. When about the complexity that designing all that stands in the Jones holds herself and the rest the $10 billion bond measure sailed to it requires. But it’s not really about way of relaxing seismic safety stan- of the scientific community at least past voters in November 2006 as the building standards. It’s about the dards for community colleges is one partially responsible that the law Proposition 1D, the provision was process they have to go through.” small detail in the bond measure that was called into question at all. “We still deeply concealed within the could be used to challenge its legality: haven’t done a really good job of bond measure’s text; most voters no one has explicitly stipulated who documenting what the Field Act has thought they’d only elected to fund does take forever to get decides which building code to use. done,” she says. “All the structural schools, not to exempt certain public new plans through all the steps,” Jones As a result, Runner has authored a engineers know that it works, so they buildings from longstanding seismic admits. “It can take a year to get bill to clarify that the Chancellor of assume everyone else knows, too. safety codes. “It wasn’t in the voter through the DSA [Division of the the California Community College When we proposed a study of it, one pamphlet,” Jones says. “There’s no State Architect],” which is known to System would make that call. Facing of our engineers asked, ‘Why waste way voters could have known they be an understaffed and underfunded widespread opposition from Califor- our money on studying a project we were removing community colleges office. But she insists the extra expense nia Professional Firefighters, the know is working?’ I said ‘Because it’s from the Field Act. But they did.” of the law is worth it. “Even with California State Firefighters’ Associa- not working politically.’ And what “In every gap between earth- construction costs rising rapidly right tion, the California School Employ- we’ve seen is that politics matters.” quakes people want to repeal the now, the Field Act does not make a ees Association, and Services Employ- Field Act,” Paul Jennings says. building that much more expensive; ees International Union, Runner’s “They were doing it right before most estimates say it’s just three to bill has stalled. the San Fernando earthquake, and four percent,” she says. “That’s a very then they saw the wisdom of it when good long-term investment for the the school buildings came through state of California, especially because well and other buildings didn’t. we want to use these buildings for Now we haven’t had an earthquake shelters after the earthquake.” since Northridge, and they’re doing Indeed, the last time then-Gov- it again.” Jennings believes, as do ernor Gray Davis vetoed legislation many Field Act defenders, that the similar to Nuñez’s, as he did three problems with the law lie within the times during his tenure, he cited bureaucratic process, not the actual exactly that function. inspection and design requirements. “Engineers and architects grumble 110/111 Paul Rogers Paul 112/113 114/115 116/117 118/119 120/121 122/123 124/125 126/127

SECTION 3: Preparing for the Unthinkable 128/129

At half-past two o’clock of a moonlit morning in March, I was awakened by a tremendous earthquake, and though I had never before enjoyed a storm of this sort, the strange, thrilling motion could not be mistaken... Both glad and frightened, [I shouted]: “A noble earthquake! A noble earthquake!” feeling sure that I was going to learn something.

—John Muir, The Yosemite (1912) Preparing for the Unthinkable 130/131 Judith Lewis

the 1920s and 1930s, when a but that one was picture-perfect. The begins this section, there’s something it repeatedly over the next few pages. lot of new homes went up in Los Angeles, president’s wife came out to see it with fatalistic about preparing for a disaster Much of the current thinking on the topic construction workers would slap a two- a TV crew. that may never happen. Preparing for an has been influenced by the aftermath by-six on top of a freshly laid concrete earthquake, from retrofitting your house of Hurricane Katrina, when the world foundation, and let it dry in the cement. to hoarding food and storing water, isn’t saw people stranded on their rooftops They called that piece of wood a “mud tell you, $100,000 of advertis- like buying gas and boarding up your and abandoned in the Superdome. In an fill,” and they built the rest of the house ing couldn’t have bought me the publicity windows when you can watch on a radar essay called “The Cultural Geographies on top of it. that one house did.” as a hurricane roars your way. It’s more of Disaster,” University of Southern “They figured it was a forever Perluss got a lot of business after like squirreling money away in your mat- California geography professor Michael bond,” says Shelly Perluss, the President the Northridge earthquake, “especially tress, in small bills and coins, in case Dear bemoans the rise of “privatopia” of the Los Angeles-based Cal-Quake because FEMA was paying for it,” he there’s a run on the banks. and what it might mean for emergency Construction. In 1933, they found out says. These days, he sees a little bump planning; the California Seismic Safety otherwise. Thousands of houses perched in business when a disaster happens Commission’s Richard McCarthy explains on mud fills slipped off their foundations. elsewhere, as when Hurricane Katrina and by the way, you should do how to sell the public on prepared- “So now we bolt the mud fill down and hit the Gulf Coast. For the most part, that, too: As University of California Los ness, and Dennis Mileti, an expert in anchor the house.” Among other things. though, people have grown complacent. Angeles professor Linda Bourque notes the sociology of disaster planning, lays Retrofitting “isn’t brain surgery,” “I’ll tell you what happens,” he says. in an interview here, ATMs probably down a blueprint for a community that says Perluss. “But it is just a terrible “Somebody’s asleep in Beverly Hills, and won’t work if the power goes out. Nor can weather disaster. At the end of this job, physically speaking. You’re working it’s early in the morning, and they wake will your cordless phone. section, James Lee Witt, former head of in an 15- or 18-inch crawl space; you up and the world is shaking and they “Preparedness” is a word used FEMA, explains what it means to lead in can hardly move.” People might do their think they’re going to die. Two minutes almost exclusively in the emergency- a crisis—and beholds the miracle of a own research on how it’s done, but they later it stops and they turn on the radio, planning community, and you will find properly retrofitted home. still hire somebody else to do it. Current and they hear it’s a 6.7. And then they estimates run around $3,000 for a say, ‘Oh, now I know what a 6.7 feels single-family home, and the rewards are like!’ But the answer is no, you don’t: tremendous. “We retrofitted a house There’s a guy over in Northridge who for a couple thousand dollars before the knows what a 6.7 feels like. The guy in Northridge earthquake over on Selma Beverly Hills does not.” Avenue in Hollywood,” Perluss says. “All As Joan Didion says in the excerpt the houses on the block were wrecked, from her 1992 book After Henry that 132/133

Excerpt from

Joan Didion

Reprinted with the permission of Simon

Anthony Van Groningen Van Anthony and Schuster Adult Publishing Group from After Henry by Joan Didion. Copyright © 1992 by Joan Didion. All rights reserved. Excerpt from Los Angeles Days 134/135 Joan Didion

one of wrench will be needed is a catastro- a Richter reading. “Rock and roll,” in the system’s four southern reser- the summer weeks I spent in Los phe, and something in the human the D.J. said on my car radio that voirs, Pyramid, Castaic, Silverwood, Angeles in 1988 there was a cluster of spirit rejects planning on a daily basis Friday afternoon at six minutes past and Perris lakes. A five-two earth- small earthquakes, the most notice- for catastrophe. I once interviewed four.“This console is definitely shak- quake is not, in California, where the able of which, on the Garlock Fault, a in the late sixties, someone who ing…no word from Pasadena yet, movements people remember tend to major lateral-slop fracture that inter- did prepare: a Pentecostal minister is there?” have Richter numbers well over six, a sects the San Andreas in the Tehachapi who had received a kind of heavenly “I would say this is a three,” the major event, and the probability of range, north of Los Angeles, occurred earthquake advisory, and on its quite D.J.’s colleague said. earthquakes like this one had in fact at six minutes after four a.m. on a specific instructions was moving his “Definitely a three, maybe I would been built into the Aqueduct: the Friday afternoon when I happened congregation from Port Hueneme, say a little higher than a three.” decision to pump the water nineteen to be driving in Wilshire Boulevard north of Los Angeles, to Murfrees- “Say an eight…just joking.” hundred feet over the Tehachapi was from the beach. People brought up to boro, Tennessee. A few months later, “It felt like a six where I was.” made precisely because the Aque- believe that the phrase “terra firma” when a small earthquake was felt not duct’s engineers rejected the idea of has real meaning often find it hard to in Port Hueneme but in Murfrees- tunneling through an area so geolog- understand the apparent equanimity boro, an event so novel that it was it turned out ically complex, periodically wrenched with which earthquakes are accom- reported nationally, I was, I recall, to be was a five-two, followed by by opposing displacements along the modated in California, and tend to mildly gratified. a dozen smaller aftershocks, and San Andreas and the Garlock, that write it off as regional spaciness. In it had knocked out four of the six it has been called California’s struc- fact it is less equanimity than protec- circuit breakers at the A.D. Edmon- tural knot. tive detachment, the useful adjust- certain fatalism comes into ston pumping plant on the Califor- Still, this particular five-two, ment commonly made in circum- play. When the ground starts moving nia Aqueduct, temporarily shutting coming as it did when what Califor- stances so unthinkable that psychic all bets are off. Quantification, which down the flow of Northern Califor- nians call “the Big One” was pretty survival precludes preparation. I in this case takes the form of guess- nia water over the Tehachapi range much overdue (the Big One is the know very few people in California ing where the movement at hand will and cutting off half of Southern eight, the Big One is the seven in the who actually set aside, as instructed, rank on the Richter scale, remains California’s water supply for the wrong place or at the wrong time, the a week’s supply of water and food. I a favored way of regaining the illu- weekend. This was all within the Big One could even be the six-five know fewer still who could actually sion of personal control, and people range not only of the predictable centered near downtown Los Angeles lay hands on the wrench required still crouched in the nearest door- but of the normal. No one had been at nine on a weekday morning), made to turn off, as instructed, the main jamb will reach for a telephone and killed or seriously injured. There people a little uneasy. There was gas valve; the scenario in which this try to call Caltech, in Pasadena, for was plenty of water for the weekend some concern through the weekend Excerpt from Los Angeles Days 136/137 Joan Didion

that this was not merely an ordinary city happened to look that weekend, five-two but a “foreshock,” an earth- a temporal dimension to the hard quake prefiguring a larger event (the white edges and empty golden light. chances of this, according to Caltech At odd moments during the next few seismologists, run abut one in twenty), days people would suddenly clutch and by Sunday there was what seemed at tables, or walls. “Is it going,” they to many people a sinister amount of would say, or “I think it’s moving.” activity on other faults: a three-four They almost always said “it”, and what just east of Ontario at twenty-two they meant by “it” was not just the minutes past two in the afternoon, ground but the world as they knew it. a three-six twenty-two minutes later I have lived all my life with the prom- at Lake Berryessa, and, four hours ised of the Big One, but when it starts and one minute later, northeast of going now even I get the jitters. San Jose, a five-five on the Calaveras Fault. On Monday, there was a two- three in Playa del Rey and a three in Santa Barbara.

it not been for the five-two on Friday, very few people would have registered these little quakes (the Caltech seismological monitors in Southern California normally record from twenty to thir- ty earthquakes a day with magnitudes below three), and in the end nothing came of them, but this time people did register them, and they lent a certain moral gravity to the way the 138/139

Michael Dear

Michael Dear is a professor in the Department of Geography at the University of Southern California. Among his many publications is From Chicago to L.A.: Re-Visioning Urban Theory. Sung-Hae Baik Sung-Hae The Culture Geographies of Natural Disasters 140/141 Michael Dear

love natu- fact of geography because, in a very ties) cover about 14,000 square miles ment. But, in this instance, sprawl ral disasters. There is something elementary way, your chances of and are home to about 17 million may hinder speedy response because irresistible about nature’s power survival will depend on exactly where people in 177 cities. The impact of Southern California has such a crazy- that humbles and stifles the capacity you are when a major earthquake hits. a major earthquake will inevitably be quilt, fragmented political geogra- for reason. This is why people chase On one level, this is obvious: you geographically uneven: that is, some phy. Under normal circumstances, tornadoes or drive toward an impend- will not escape if a freeway overpass places could be completely destroyed coordination among the 177 cities ing volcanic eruption. Even when while others remain relatively intact. and five counties is virtually non- engulfed in disaster, some refuse to flee The simple lesson from years L.A.’s dense, distributed road trans- existent; in an emergency situation, as they confront the prospect of their of privatization, criminal portation network will increase the region’s pathological disconnect- own demise. Such human responses to neglect and moral bank- the opportunities for connecting edness will likely exacerbate the anar- nature’s calamities are deeply rooted ruptcy in Washington, D.C., between, escaping from, and bringing chy of post-disaster panic. in culture and geography. is this: in any major disaster, aid to stricken urban areas, as will the Most places across the earth we’re on our own. large number of regional airports in are exposed to some form of natu- the Southland (the ports are another local government is unable ral hazard, be it flood or drought, collapses onto your car as it idles in matter). In addition, since emer- to keep up with disaster, can we rely fire or avalanche. Yet not all places traffic; but you might survive at least gency services are already dispersed on outside help from the federal are equally threatened. A world map the initial shockwaves if you’re in a widely throughout the region, fire, government? In the aftermath of of seismic activity reveals a striking building constructed to withstand police, and hospital services are more Katrina, only a fool would expect alignment of treacherous fault lines extremes of tectonic movement. accessible to local needs. the feds to come to our aid (unless that accumulate at the continents’ However, on another level, L.A.’s These examples are not meant of course your brother happens to edges—carving, for example, a “ring peculiar urban geography—namely its to induce complacency, nor do they be president). In recent years, many of fire” that encircles the Pacific massive sprawl—may result in fewer tell the full story of potential disas- federal emergency-response agen- Ocean. This spectacular global jigsaw deaths than might occur in other ter in Southern California. Instead, cies, including FEMA and HUD, puzzle is the consequence of inter- American cities where greater density they call attention to some of L.A.’s have been systematically dismantled locking tectonic plates floating atop presages concentrated catastrophe. geographic specificities that are and starved of funds. The simple the earth’s molten core. To understand this, consider that critically important in emergency lesson from years of privatization, Southern Californians live on the urbanized portions of the five- planning. criminal neglect and moral bank- one of the most prominent sutures county L.A. metropolitan region When confronted by the need to ruptcy in Washington, D.C., is this: in the earth’s crust: the San Andreas (Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, rebuild after a natural disaster, Amer- in any major disaster, we’re on our Fault. Our destinies are tied to this San Bernardino, and Ventura coun- icans traditionally turn to govern- own. (At 12:36 p.m. on April 23, The Culture Geographies of Natural Disasters 142/143 Michael Dear

2007, a small temblor shakes the walls post-disaster aid from a Dubai-based have the answers to these questions, only make coping with natural disas- of my house as I write this essay, offer- megacorporation answerable only to but we need to talk about privatopia, ters worse, but cultural preparedness ing a stark reminder of the intimacy of its global shareholders. because things could get very ugly, based on the region’s real geogra- earthquakes in everyday life.) very quickly following an earthquake. phies could mitigate a catastrophe. Since the Reagan presidency, it’s The best plans are those informed by been fashionable to blame govern- privatization is local, local knowledge, are locally inspired, ment for all our ills, and ‘privatiza- too. Almost 20 percent of the U.S. comes down to this: all and involve local coalitions. Without tion’ became the mantra for dereg- housing stock is now in ‘common disasters are local. Los Angeles will re- them, any personal preparations for ulating everything from airlines to interest developments,’ or CIDs, main highly prone to natural disaster post-earthquake survival could vanish zoos. In my judgment, privatization which house 57 million people in and subject to the region’s capricious quickly when fastidious, well-armed is a political, economic and cultur- gated communities, condomini- urban geography. Cultural unreadi- neighbors decide they prefer your al disaster that is more threatening ums, and the like. Legal scholar Evan ness of the kind I have described can brand of bottled water to theirs. than any natural disaster, because it McKenzie long ago called attention has all but eliminated our capacity to ‘privatopia,’ a form of private to respond to disasters. During the urban governance that could lead to year 2000, according to The New York the demise of municipal government Times (February 7, 2007), the federal and local democracy. Needless to say, government spent $207 billion on when things go wrong in CIDland (as outsourced private contracts for work they often do) adjacent municipali- that hitherto had been undertaken ties are called in to fix things. If so by government. By 2007, the figure many CIDers chose to abdicate from was $400 billion. In 2001, almost 80 our communities, should we now percent of the contracts were put out mandate that their restrictive cove- for competitive bidding, but by 2005 nants include disaster planning? If only 48 percent were. As the Times puts yes, will their plan and its resources it: ours is increasingly government of, be limited to CID members only? If by, and for private contractors. It is there is no disaster plan, why should entirely plausible that the future mayor CIDers who have opted out of our of an earthquake-devastated L.A. will communities expect us to help them, bypass Washington, D.C., and beg for or be entitled to that help? I don’t 144/145

An interview with Linda Bourque by Aileen Farnan Antonier

Linda B. Bourque, PhD, is professor in the Department of Com- munity Health Sciences in the School of Public Health, University of California, Los Angeles. She is also the associate director of two centers: Southern California Injury Prevention Research Center, and Center for Public Health and Disasters. She has designed, conducted, and analyzed surveys of community perceptions of and responses to California earthquakes since the San Fernando earthquake of 1971. She talks to Aileen Farnan Antonier about who

Katherine Siy Katherine prepares and who doesn’t, and why. Assessing Preparedness 146/147 Aileen Farnan Antonier

You have conducted surveys ent from subsequent surveys, but of opportunity right after an event. not panic. They want to know what to on earthquake preparedness indications were that people were well After Northridge there was a lot of do if something does happen. issues for more than 30 prepared before that earthquake. After discussion of earthquake prepared- years. What trends have 1978, when we adopted the basic ques- ness. The Los Angeles Times published Are any groups especially you discovered? tionnaire we still use, the data became material on a daily basis for almost vulnerable during and after more comparable, and we observed a year after the event. So during that an earthquake? There are some patterns that have that the tendency for individuals to window of opportunity the public been stable across all the studies we’ve prepare had improved before both is exposed to valuable information After Northridge, when we looked at done in terms of the type of indi- the Whittier and the Loma Prieta multiple times, and is provided with the extent to which people knew about vidual most likely to prepare for an earthquakes. When we surveyed after basic, helpful things to do. But then what help was available, there were earthquake. People who have lived Northridge, though, it appeared that time passes, and competing priorities strong differences between immi- in California longer and who are —jobs, kids, everything else—pushes grant populations and non-immi- more established have done more in In general, public authorities preparedness to the back burner. grant populations. I further tried terms of preparedness. More highly are not that good at being to bring out what we call “isolated educated people, those with higher transparent because they What can be done to keep individuals.” Those who were speak- socio-economic status, and older think people will panic if they preparedness at the front of ing Spanish exclusively tended to be people usually do more. Homeown- tell the public “too much.” In the public’s list of priorities? more isolated, and that correlated ers prepare more than renters do. fact, it’s exactly the reverse. with recent immigrant status and less Any differences across ethnic or People do not panic. They It’s an issue of not only provid- time in the state. Those linguistical- racial categories are impacted by an want to know what to do if ing people with information, but ly isolated groups were less likely to individual’s socioeconomic status something does happen. providing it repetitively and trans- know about resources, and that makes and access to discretionary funds. parently. Tell them the whole story them more vulnerable. the level of preparedness before that and be consistent over all the chan- Were people were better event had diminished. nels of communication. Give them If people could do only one prepared for the Northridge Now that it has been 14 years ways to deal with what lies ahead. thing to prepare, what would earthquake in 1994 than for since the last major quake, I suspect In general, public authorities are you recommend? the 1971 San Fernando quake? the current level of prepared- not that good at being transparent ness is even lower than it was before because they think people will panic Have cash on hand, with change and After the San Fernando earthquake, Northridge. In the disaster busi- if they tell the public “too much.” In small bills. our survey was shorter and very differ- ness, we often talk about the window fact, it’s exactly the reverse. People do Assessing Preparedness 148/149 Aileen Farnan Antonier

But whatever you do, you’ve to be encouraged to keep an old- got to build redundancy into your fashioned landline—not a wireless, system. You can’t depend on a single portable phone, but one that plugs system; you’ve got to have a back- directly into a jack in the wall. If up. For example, a lot of people electricity goes out, that phone line have relaxed about preparedness will still work. with the advent of cell phones. They Another thing is, yes, keep emer- think that with a cell phone they gency bottles of water around, but will be able to communicate easily also fill up your bathtub immedi- in the event of an emergency. But ately after a quake. That way you the cell phone servers get overload- have a secondary source of water. ed immediately. And if electric- That’s an easy one, and it doesn’t ity goes out, cell phone batteries cost you anything. cannot be recharged. People need Mike Rios Mike 150/151

A profile of Richard McCarthy by Aileen Farnan Antonier

As Richard McCarthy, the executive director of the California Seismic Safety Commission, tells Aileen Farnan Antonier in this interview, readying the public for disaster is a little like marketing soft drinks: You can’t blame the customer if they’re not buying. “We need creative people to sell this concept,” he says. “They have to make it so cool that you can’t stand going another day without being prepared.” At the same time, he says, Hurricane Katrina taught public agencies that no one can go it alone: “The idea is to get industry and government to work together before the Sul-Young Cho disaster occurs. Who knows how long it’ll take FEMA to get here?” How to Succeed in Disaster Readiness 152/153 Aileen Farnan Antonier

Are Californians in denial tion program in schools, financial communicating this issue to the public I was in a meeting where the partici- about the “Big One”? incentives for individuals, and the very well. Here’s an example: For two pants said, “Well, the public should media talking about the threat we face years before the 100th anniversary of take it upon themselves to be prepared, People have no concept of the catas- everywhere you look. You have to tell the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, we because it’s the right thing to do.” I trophe that’s possible. If I could people, from multiple sources, that had been running television ads and said, imagine we’re in Coca-Cola’s magically transport legislators and they need to prepare—and it can’t just placing educational pieces in newspa- boardroom right now. The CEO is the public to the site of a major disas- be once every year. pers. Museums mounted special exhi- looking at us, and saying, “Coke sales ter, like what I witnessed after the The challenge is keeping the bitions. On the anniversary, at a big are going down.” Do you think he’s earthquakes in Taiwan and Turkey, public aware of the threat when a conference at the Moscone Center, blaming the public? No. He’s blam- they would never view earthquakes major disaster hasn’t hit California Mayor Gavin Newsom said some- ing the people sitting around the and earthquake preparedness the since Northridge in 1994. Right after thing very interesting: “I really want table. We’re blaming the public, and same way. The misery is unforgetta- an earthquake, you have a narrow to congratulate you all for the last two ble: hundreds of thousands of people window of opportunity—maybe three years and all the educational outreach “Imagine we’re in Coca- living in camps with no place to go, weeks. Then the next item in the news things that you’ve done, but you need Cola’s boardroom right now. freezing to death in the winter; disease takes over. Because it’s been so long to know two things. First, 60 percent The CEO is looking at us, breaking out. When you come to a since the last quake, the public has a of San Francisco’s current popula- and saying, ‘Coke sales are site with a collapsed school or hospital hard time understanding the grav- tion wasn’t here during the 1989 Loma going down.’ Do you think weeks or months after the event, and ity of the threat. How are you going Prieta earthquake. Second, as of today, he’s blaming the public?” the bodies are still in there because to motivate people—not to mention our surveys say only 10 percent of the the rescuers are focused on the living, local governments—to do something citizens of San Francisco are prepared.” that’s wrong. Our message has to be it totally changes your perspective. if they think there’s no risk? Politi- That told me that we’ve got to some- marketed with a Madison Avenue cally, you have to have your list of how convey our message differently. approach, by people who know how What will it take to keep recommendations ready to pull out It’s not the public’s fault that they’re to do it effectively. And that’s not the people aware of the threat and present right away after an event. not prepared, it’s our fault. earthquake community. and motivated to take care The earthquake community in of themselves and their Who is to blame for the So how do you get your general—all of us: social scientists, communities? public’s short attention span? message across? earthquake engineers, geologists, medical personnel—is its own worse There has to be a major paradigm As part of the earthquake community, It’s like a Coca-Cola ad: you have to enemy in many ways. The commu- shift, culturally. You need a big educa- I say it’s our fault because we’re not repeat it over and over and over again. nity does not work as a single, focused How to Succeed in Disaster Readiness 154/155 Aileen Farnan Antonier

entity; it doesn’t understand the What’s the solution? Along with incentives, we need a over half of them will be exposed to a political process at all. This group is big preparedness education program in major earthquake on the southern San not a player up in Sacramento, and we It’s like a relay race: we need to hand our schools. Our country is recycling Andreas Fault. There aren’t enough must now compete against many other off the information to professionals and wearing seat belts today because first responders—emergency medical societal problems for scarce resourc- who know how to communicate to the of education programs that started technicians, police, fire, and rescue— es. We don’t recognize how decisions public, and we then take a second- in schools. Japan is a good model to go around. Chances are that if you are made at the federal or state level ary role. We need creative people to for us, because the whole country sits need to be rescued from your home, very well. sell this concept. They have to make either on a fault or a volcano, and is your neighbors are going to do it. To get people prepared, to get it so cool that you can’t stand going subject to earthquakes, eruptions, They know you’re there. And your legislation passed, takes a differ- another day without being prepared. and tsunamis. Disaster preparedness first meal is likely to come from your ent skill set. You need to go over to Get celebrities to say, “I’m worried is ingrained in them when they’re local church. Those are the true first the legislative area of the capital and for my family, and I’ve done what I very young, through educational responders within the community. explain the issue to the people who can to prepare. And by the way, there programs. They have fantastic hands- Even if you’re lying injured on your are trying to address all of society’s are incentives from the government on educational centers. The best one lawn, the fire department is going to problems. We’re competing against if you do it, too. Get your $1000 tax I’ve seen is in Shizuoka Prefecture, focus on the retirement community all the other social issues over there: credit.” And they have to say it over where they have big tsunami tank; a or hospital down the block that’s on homelessness, crack cocaine, avian and over again. kitchen atop a shake table, so you can fire. People need to understand that. flu, contaminated water, homeown- Incentives are important in getting sit and experience different size earth- So the public is really on its own for ers defaulting on mortgages. What’s people to act. We know everybody’s on quakes; a room where they teach you a number of days, at least a week. the crisis du jour? a budget, so how do you get people to how to hold a fire hose as a team; and Everyone has to consider what we Then we come in the door and spend money on preparedness when other learning experiences. As many as would need if we had no power, no say we are overdue for a major earth- they’ve got other financial pressures? 500,000 school kids go through this water, and couldn’t leave our houses quake. “When is it going to happen?” When bolting the foundation doesn’t disaster education center each year. for a week. This is the message we have they ask. Since it may never happen increase the value of their house at all? to communicate, in all the different when they’re in office, what are you You give that homeowner a $1000 tax When you educate groups languages we speak in California, so going to say that will get them to rise credit, because they’re not going to about earthquake prepared- that people can take action. above the fray and act? act on their own. We haven’t demon- ness, what do you tell them? The other aspect people need strated the cost-benefit of mitigation to consider is personal and finan- very well; that it’s a good investment to I call it yo-yo: “You’re on your own.” cial preparedness. Where are your retrofit your home. Out of 37 million people in the state, credit cards, financial records, social How to Succeed in Disaster Readiness 156/157 Aileen Farnan Antonier

security numbers, and other critical begets another. That’s what worries The idea that private partners might to inform people they have to leave: documents such as insurance policies me the most—if the situation escalates make money from participating in pack one bag and get on the bus. As or your will? Keep a simple written out of control. preparedness endeavors or receive we saw in Katrina and Rita, you never record of what your assets are, where positive press was somehow consid- know how far you’ll have to go. It’s your investments are, and the codes Has the devastation of Hurri- ered unseemly. But if they’re going an interesting challenge. Everyone’s associated with them. Not only do we cane Katrina taught the state to participate, they should get some- going out of Los Angeles, and no have to be prepared with food, water, of California anything? thing more than just positive press. If one’s coming in. All the freeway traf- and medicines, but we also need to someone invents or develops some- fic is flowing east towards Las Vegas. protect our identity and our finan- Absolutely. And a major event on the thing that saves lives and also makes We need to send a message to the cial well-being. Know where these southern section of the San Andreas money, why not? Whoever invented public that the preparedness actions things are: when you go to apply to Fault would far exceed the damage automobile airbags is making money. you take now can mostly apply for FEMA for financial aid, you’ll need Hurricane Katrina did. No one is calling them greedy. It’s a all disasters. Should an event occur all that paperwork. After Hurricane Katrina, it philosophical shift. on the southern segment of the San became obvious that no one agency After Hurricanes Rita and Andreas Fault, this is what you should What scenario keeps you up can do it alone. I attend meetings with Katrina, the issue of evacuation was do, but these actions will also prepare at night? groups of companies and organiza- highlighted. The common wisdom has you for other types of disasters: fires, tions to see how best to work together been that you “shelter in place” for an floods, tsunamis, terrorism. We’ve It’s the concept of the cascading in state-private partnerships. The earthquake, but that may not neces- got to join forces with all the other disaster. Let’s say we have a big event idea is to get industry and govern- sarily be true. You have to consider hazards experts and get more bang on the southern section of the San ment to work together before the subsequent problems, such as floods for the buck. After 9/11 and Katrina, Andreas—a magnitude 8. There are a disaster occurs. Get the partnerships or fires. If a fire is spreading through we all know we need preparedness on couple of minutes of strong ground established up front, with the roles an urbanized area, there will be a need a different scale. motion and all the damage that well defined, and the resources iden- results. Then the fires start, fanned tified. Who knows how long it’ll take by the Santa Ana winds. Three or four FEMA to get here? It’s pretty obvious days after that, dams fail, because they the state is on its own for some time were weakened by the event, or from in a disaster. aftershocks. So now you have a flood, Until Governor Schwarzeneg- and evacuation concerns. It’s not just ger came along, it was difficult to the shaking; over time, one disaster form partnerships with industry. 158/159

Dennis S. Mileti

Dennis S. Mileti is professor emeritus at the University of Colorado at Boulder, where he served as chair of the Department of Sociology and as director of the nation’s clearinghouse for natural hazards knowledge in the social and behavior sciences, The Natural Hazards Research and Applications Information Center. He currently serves as vice chair of California’s Alfred E. Alquist Seismic Safety Commission. His essay is a map for the kind of sustainable, long-term thinking that leads to community resiliency. Sung-Hae Baik Sung-Hae Earthquake Disasters by Design 160/161 Dennis S. Mileti

Nature trend. But recent disaster events are the main guidelines for improv- sion that any mitigation effort is causes earthquakes, but earthquake have shown that natural disasters of ing our ability to mitigate hazards. desirable and will—in some vague way— disasters are largely the result of the all kinds are not linear problems that reduce the grand total of future losses. actions and inactions of people. can be solved in isolation. Adopt a global systems In reality, change can occur quickly Narrow and shortsighted develop- Another problem is that some perspective. and nonlinearly. Human adapta- ment patterns, cultural premises, efforts to head off damages only serve Earthquake disasters arise from tion to earthquakes must become as and attitudes toward the natural envi- to postpone them. For example, interactions among the earth’s physi- dynamic as the problems presented by ronment, science, and technology all communities build stronger build- cal systems, its human systems, and the earthquake hazard itself. contribute to society’s responsibility ings to avoid losses from future earth- its built infrastructure. A broad view for the disaster that unfolds after an quakes. But such communities often that encompasses all three of these Reject short-term thinking. earthquake occurs. Consequently, have more property to lose when the dynamic systems, and interactions Mitigation, as frequently conceived, we must find a way to force people forces of nature exceed the resis- among them, can enable us to find is too shortsighted. In general, people to own up to the fact that human- tance built into structures because better solutions. have a cultural and economic predis- ity designs future earthquake losses additional development occurred position to think primarily in the short through its daily decisions, and to that counted on the assumed protec- Accept responsibility for term. Sustainable earthquake hazard link earthquake hazard mitigation to tion. To redress those shortcomings, earthquake disasters. mitigation will require a longer-term sustainable development. a shift is needed toward sustainable Human beings—not nature—are the view that takes into account the overall One problem is the fallacy under- earthquake hazard mitigation that cause of earthquake disaster losses, effect of mitigation efforts on this and lying many of the accepted methods links natural resources management which stem from choices about where future generations. for coping with earthquakes: the with local economic and social resil- and how human development will idea that people can use technology iency, viewing this mitigation in a proceed. We must also accept that Account for social forces. to control nature and render them- larger context. there is no final solution to the earth- Societal factors, such as how people selves safe. What’s more, most strate- quake hazard since, ultimately, tech- view the earthquake hazard and gies for managing all natural hazards A new approach to the nology cannot make the world safe mitigation efforts or how the free have followed a traditional planning earthquake hazard from the forces of nature. market operates, play a critical role model: study the problem, imple- in determining which steps are actu- ment one solution, and move on to Any shift in strategy must cope with Anticipate ambiguity ally taken, which are overlooked, the next problem. This approach the complex factors that contribute to and change. and thus the extent of future disaster casts the earthquake hazard as static earthquake disasters in today’s—and The view that natural hazards are rela- losses. Because such social forces are and mitigation as a positive linear especially tomorrow’s—world. Here tively static has led to the false conclu- now known to be much more power- Earthquake Disasters by Design 162/163 Dennis S. Mileti

ful than disaster specialists previously choosing where and how development local communities must consciously onto later generations or less power- thought, growing understanding of proceeds. Toward that end, each define the quality of life they want and ful groups. physical systems and improved tech- locality evaluates its environmental select only those mitigation strategies nology cannot suffice. To effectively resources and hazards, chooses the that do not detract from any aspect of Adopt local address natural hazards, mitigation future losses that it is willing to bear, that vision. consensus building. must become a basic social value. and ensures that development and A sustainable community selects other community actions and policies Foster local resiliency mitigation strategies that evolve from Embrace sustainable adhere to those goals. and responsibility. full participation by all public and development principles. Six objectives must simultane- Resiliency in the face of a disas- private stakeholders. The participatory Earthquake disasters are more likely ously be reached to mitigate earth- ter means a locale can withstand an process itself may be as important as where unsustainable development quake hazards in a sustainable way, extreme natural event with a tolerable the outcome. A long term, compre- occurs, and the converse is also true: and stop the trend toward spiraling level of losses. This resiliency requires hensive plan for averting disaster disasters hinder movement toward catastrophic losses from earthquakes mitigation actions consistent with losses and encouraging sustainability sustainability because, for example, and other natural disasters. achieving that level of protection. can offer a locality the opportunity they degrade the environment and to coordinate its goals and policies. A undercut the quality of life. Sustain- Maintain and enhance Recognize that vibrant local community can best forge such a plan able mitigation activities should environmental quality. economies are essential. by tapping businesses and residents strengthen a community’s social, Human activities to mitigate natural Communities should take mitiga- as well as experts and government economic, and environmental resil- hazards should not reduce the carry- tion actions that foster a strong officials. And while actual planning iency, and vice versa. ing capacity of the ecosystem, for local economy, rather than detract and follow-through must occur at doing so increases losses from hazards from one. the local level, a great deal of impe- Fostering local stability in the longer term. tus must come from above. Nothing Ensure inter- and intra- short of strong leadership from state Sustainability means that a locality Maintain and enhance generational equity. and federal governments will ensure can tolerate—and overcome—damage, people’s quality of life. A sustainable community selects miti- that planning for sustainable earth- diminished productivity, and reduced A population’s quality of life includes, gation activities that reduce hazards quake hazard mitigation and develop- quality of life from an earthquake among other factors, access to income, across all ethnic, racial, and income ment occurs. without significant outside assistance. education, health care, housing, and groups, and between genders equal- To achieve sustainability, commu- employment, as well as protection ly, now and in the future. The costs nities must take responsibility for from disaster. To become sustainable, of today’s advances are not shifted 164/165 Josh Tetreault & Andrew Holder & John-Everette Perry & John-Everette Holder & Andrew Tetreault Josh

James Lee Witt

Under James Lee Witt, the Federal Emergency Management Agency went from being a moribund bureaucracy to an international leader is crisis management. During his tenure, which lasted from 1993 until 2001, Witt oversaw relief efforts for more than 350 federally declared disasters; coordinated response and recovery operations for a dozen deadly hurricanes; and helped put the city of Los Angeles back on its feet after the country’s most costly earth- quake, Northridge in 1994, leveled freeway overpasses and destroyed thousands of homes and commercial structures. Witt Bold Leadership in Crisis Management–A Call to Action 166/167 James Lee Witt

is currently chief executive officer of James Lee Witt Associates, “What you gonna do now?” I at least got to choose the color of my which assists state and local governments in emergency. The essay he said. next shirt. below is partially adapted from his 2002 book, with James Lee “Well, Dad,” I said, “I guess I’ll I don’t mean to make my early Morgan, Stronger in the Broken Places: Nine Lessons for Turning Crisis fix it.” life sound unduly harsh. We were a Into Triumph. The editors thank Mark Ghilarducci, vice president and Now, I need to step back here and close family, and we had plenty of director of the Western States Regional Office, and M. Reginald B. make a point, which is that when my good times. Still, by age 16, I had seen Salvator, program specialist, both of James Lee Witt Associates, for car broke down, hiring somebody else my father and mother survive not just their invaluable contributions to this essay. to fix it was out of the question. I grew the expected hardships of farm life, up the son of an Arkansas sharecrop- but also the tornado that turned our house on its foundation when I was Procrastination is the arch- five, the fire that destroyed every- enemy of crisis management. thing we had when I was 15, and the Sometimes a crisis becomes other tornado that we escaped only a crisis simply because by running to a nearby storm shelter, V-8 and twin pipes, and in it I felt someone has failed to act. with my mother getting bitten by a years ago, when President Clinton like the coolest boy in all of Darda- snake on the way. appointed me director of FEMA, nelle, Arkansas. per. Until I was 15, we had no indoor somebody asked me what he had One night, leaving the roller plumbing and only a coal stove for meant by describing me as “a man of rink, the engine started making a heat. In the winter, my dad would had never torn apart an engine, uncommon common sense.” I didn’t terrible racket. I was a farmer, not a spread sheets of linoleum on the floor but the next morning I set to work on know how to answer, admitted as mechanic, but even I knew what that to block out the cold air, and to this it. I jacked the car up on blocks, took much, and said I would think on it. metal-on-metal sound meant: I had day I can see that linoleum floating off the heads, took off the oil pan, What I came up with was this: thrown a rod. The car was undrive- up whenever a harsh wind blew. My took out the crankshaft, and took out In 1960, when I was 16 years old, I able, so I got a buddy to hook a chain mother was a housekeeper, at first just all the pistons and rods—everything, bought my first car, a 1951 Ford that to my bumper and tow me home. We for us and then for other people, too, until that engine block was clean as squawked rubber in all three gears. I hauled the Ford down to the barn and my brother, sisters, and I helped a whistle. Then I turned the crank- paid $250 for it, money I had earned and parked it under the shed. My dad her as well. She made our clothes out shaft, turned the rods, put in new rod baling hay in Texas the summer came out and looked at it. He hadn’t of flour sacks, and I soon learned not bearings, and put the whole engine before. I was very proud of that old been all that big on my buying a car in to object whenever she asked me to go back together. I still had a little coffee car. It was sky blue with a flat-head the first place. grocery shopping with her. That way, can full of bolts leftover, but the car Bold Leadership in Crisis Management–A Call to Action 168/169 James Lee Witt

seemed to run fine. I never figured Unfortunately, common sense Some people are constitutionally In a disaster, we tend to think in out what whose extra bolts were for. is a commodity that seems to be in better suited for this than are others, terms of groups; 20,000 survivors in extremely short supply, especially in but there are skills that can be taught— a shelter, for example. But those are organizations. Leon Panetta, former about such things as team building, 20,000 individuals who look at the years, I didn’t real- congressman and White House chief prioritizing, support groups, and world through only their own eyes. ize there was anything particularly of staff, says, “Democracy operates even self-discipline. Remember this Crisis management is, at heart, an remarkable about that event. But either through crisis or leadership.” above all: Procrastination is the arch- individual challenge. what I now see as remarkable is that I think you could say the same for enemy of crisis management. Some- Groups don’t think; they react. I knew I could fix it. Having watched corporations, communities, and times a crisis becomes a crisis simply More than that, they fantasize, my parents fight their way through even families. because someone has failed to act. imagine, fear, fabricate, compete, bad times, and having endured many We tend to toss the word crisis compensate, placate, and suppli- dicey moments myself, I’ve come to around pretty loosely, to the point that cate. With their many arms and legs believe that “uncommon common it sometimes covers everything from my eight flailing wildly, they wrestle with illu- sense” is nothing more than a bone- death to dentures. But my dictionary years at the Federal Emergency Man- sions. When I joined FEMA, the deep faith in your ability to cope in defines crisis as “a crucial or decisive agement Agency (FEMA), I managed agency itself was in crisis. Widely a bad situation: faith that you can point or situation: a turning point.” 373 major disasters, including 54 known as a do-nothing outfit—the decide what to do, you can figure Crises are turning points–defining tornadoes, 43 floods, 38 hurricanes, government’s “turkey farm”—it was out how to do it, you can pick up moments in our lives when we can four earthquakes, and one terrorist in real danger of being dismantled by the pieces of your life and go on. It’s choose to lead. bombing. Having the word “crisis” in Congress. Originally set up to guard frightening the first time you have to your job description means you get against nuclear war, FEMA was once tap into that confidence at your core. to see people at both their worst and little more than a dumping ground But the more you’re tested, the more does—must—go their best—often at the same time. for political appointees. But short- you can rely on your experience at on, a fact that cuts to the heart of what Watching so many ordinary humans sightedness always reveals itself. When tapping into it. You don’t have to be I mean when I say “handling crisis.” deal with extraordinary circum- Hurricane Hugo hit South Carolina afraid that it’ll fail you. Whatever it is Rudyard Kipling wrote about keep- stances, I absorbed a certain gut-level in 1989, FEMA’s response was so slow inside us that instills, facilitates, and ing your head while all around you understanding of why some people and cumbersome that Senator Ernest conveys such confidence, the truth others are losing theirs. That’s part of are able to manage crisis—practical- Hollings called the agency “the sorri- is that it grows, like bark, with every what I mean—maintaining a presence ly, emotionally, and spiritually—and est bunch of bureaucratic jackasses trial you face. of mind, and a sense of proportion, others aren’t. I’ve ever known.” Unfortunately, in the midst of the worst calamities. that wasn’t the agency’s low point. Bold Leadership in Crisis Management–A Call to Action 170/171 James Lee Witt

That came in 1992, when Hurricane unimaginative form. It’s getting the supplies (generators, cots, chainsaws, bridges we had. “That’s crazy,” I said. Andrew devastated South Florida. victims the help they need as fast as water, bedding, tents) to Raleigh, “Are you telling me that you’d rather FEMA was so inept in acting that you can. North Carolina, in anticipation of replace wooden bridges over and over people were still living in tent cities Recovery is returning the victims Hurricane Emily’s arrival on the instead of building bridges that won’t more than a year after the storm. to some sense of normalcy. It is as North Carolina coast. Sometimes wash away?” They wouldn’t budge. So much a goal as a process. From a hurricanes don’t follow the routes we took the money they gave us and long-range standpoint, recovery will or schedules the forecasters have raised extra money to build new task as director was clear: certainly require financial assistance mapped out for them, and if Emily bridges out of steel and concrete. to slash red tape and redefine how the and may necessitate psychological had missed North Carolina we might That was almost 20 years ago, and federal government responds to crises counseling. Short term, it involves have been criticized for jumping the every one of those bridges is still in its citizens’ lives. Most important everything from debris removal to gun and wasting taxpayers’ money. standing. Mitigation is the ultimate was to shift the agency’s thinking away clothing donations to house rebuild- But Emily did hit, and we were heroes application of common sense to the from simply dealing with a disaster, to ing. I also find that it helps to give because we were prepared. challenges the world throws our way. actually trying to prevent, or at least to people a place to attend church servic- As Director of FEMA, I had the lessen the impact, of one. On the es, even if their house of worship has privilege to help change the way the most practical level, disaster manage- been blown to kingdom come. the end, though, mitiga- United States thinks about disasters. ment professionals divide their work Preparedness is the pivotal step tion—which means to moderate in Four specific ideals were central to into four phases: response, recovery, between recovery and prevention. In force or intensity—should be the goal my efforts in making preparedness, preparedness, and mitigation. the case of floods, after a few of them, of every crisis manager. Why prepare prevention and mitigation target Response is the most reactive. Say your experience tells you that another to clean up more efficiently after a focuses of emergency management: a tornado tears through a communi- one is going to wash over you some- disaster when you can prepare to less- ty, wreaking havoc and perhaps death day, so you set in place procedures en its effect in the first place? I learned • Strong and rigorously enforced for miles. In the response phase, for when that bad day finally arrives. that a long time ago in Yell County, building codes you go out and look at the situation By then you’ve got a pretty good sense Arkansas, when I was county judge, • Public-private partnerships and see what’s needed, from blood of what you need to stockpile—fresh the official in charge of the roads. We • Leadership supplies to bottled water to shelter water, say, and sandbags—and what had a big flood that washed away 33 of • Personal and community education (not to mention ministers, psychol- emergency services you need to have the county’s wood bridges, which put and planning ogists, and financial counselors). on standby. In August 1993, FEMA us in quite a fix. When FEMA came to Response is crisis management in its even took the then-revolutionary survey the damage, they would only In the aftermath of the Northridge most stripped down, basic, and most step of deploying trucks, crews, and pay us to replace the same kinds of earthquake, I was with then-First Lady Bold Leadership in Crisis Management–A Call to Action 172/173 James Lee Witt

Hillary Clinton touring a neighbor- jobs and our environment, building obligation bonds that would, among heavily tiled roofs. The newer, hood that was devastated—all except stronger, disaster-resistant buildings other things, assist children’s hospitals concrete structures that had been for one home whose owner was sitting is critical. Buildings can be retrofit- (Prop. 61, $750 million, in 2004) built to be earthquake resistant were outside on his front lawn. I asked why ted to resist an earthquake—a life- and public schools (Prop. 1D, $10.4 better able to withstand the event. his home was the only one on the safety retrofit—and I have seen many billion, in 2006) to retrofit existing Although Japan’s seismic design stan- block that did not have any damage. businesses and homes that survived facilities as well as build new facilities dards for highway bridges were updat- He said he had gone to the library major earthquakes because they were using updated building codes. While ed in 1990, the Kobe earthquake and checked out a book on how to either built right or retrofitted. these actions are a great start toward resulted in calls for another revision, perform an earthquake retrofit on ensuring our hospitals and schools which was completed in 2002. his home. When I asked how much hold up during an earthquake, much Imagine one-half of your the retrofit cost, he said $1,500. never forget visiting more still needs to be done. I have community without shelter and States such as California have several schools after Northridge and seen the consequences of building exposed to the dangers of unstable adopted some of the most stringent seeing the suspended ceilings and codes in every type of disaster, and structures and severed utility lines. earthquake building codes in the light fixtures that had fallen on the have learned a pretty simple formula: Then consider the economic loss— country. It is important that other children’s desks. If school had been When a disaster hits, buildings with more than $147 billion, not includ- states, and countries, adopt similar in session when the earthquake struck, locally enforced building codes suffer ing economic effects from fatalities, strong building codes and enforce who knows how many children would far less damage. Structures built to businesses interruption, and lost them. But what is more critical is that have been hurt or killed? In the after- strong codes still stand. People who production. If an earthquake were they go back and look at buildings that math of the quake, many Los Angeles live and work in them are still alive. to hit San Francisco with the same were built before stronger building area hospitals also had to be evacuated magnitude as the 1906 earthquake, codes were adopted. We have inher- because the facilities were unsafe. We the economic losses would exceed ited a traditional building stock in helped to rebuild those schools and year after North- $400 billion. With respect to move- earthquake- and flood-risk areas that hospitals to reduce the chances that ridge, an earthquake struck Kobe, ment of all five faults in the Southern will cost an astronomical amount of the light fixtures will hurt children Japan, and caused the destruction of California region, economic losses money to replace, particularly when and to ensure that hospitals will more than 100,000 buildings. would easily exceed $200 billion. you have a disaster. remain open and will continue to Hundreds of thousands of people With the swelling number of Since we have both community serve their communities when anoth- were left homeless. More than 6,000 disasters, both domestically and and individual responsibility to do all er disaster strikes. lives were lost. During the Kobe internationally, we must continue we can to save lives, protect our fami- In 2004 and 2006, California earthquake, traditional wooden to work hard to prevent their effects lies, keep businesses open, protect voters approved a series of general homes collapsed under the weight of beforehand, and not just respond Bold Leadership in Crisis Management–A Call to Action 174/175 James Lee Witt

to them once they occur. Success- County of Santa Barbara, the City worked toward mitigating earth- tions. Citizens endure the terri- ful mitigation also ensures that we and County of San Bernardino, and quake, flood, and wildfire damage to ble devastation that disasters cause. can save a great deal of money on the Las Virgenes Malibu Council of facilities, providing emergency train- With initiatives like Project Impact responding and recovering from Governments (which comprises the ing and special services to employ- and other state- and locally-support a disaster: A World Watch Institute Southern California cities of Agou- ees and rendering technical assis- seismic risk programs, they have the study found that every dollar spent ra Hills, Calabasas, Hidden Hills, tance, financial resources, and other opportunity to learn, hands-on, how on disaster mitigation and prepared- Malibu and Westlake Village). in-kind services to other segments of to minimize the potential destruc- ness saves seven dollars in disaster- their communities. tion. Citizens can then feel empow- related economic losses. Project Impact brought together ered to make a difference. Berkeley Home more than 250 high-risk communi- Cities are now realizing the need Public-Private Partnerships Repair Program provided free seis- ties and over 2,000 corporate part- to plan ahead in partnership with mic upgrades (structural and non- ners to prepare for disasters rather local businesses, which have been long Community participation is neces- structural) to low-income seniors than simply react to them. We gave each overlooked in initial planning efforts sary to make mitigation work. A and disabled people. The Transfer community the opportunity to assess as being a key asset in times of crisis. proven way to get communities Tax Rebate Program provided rebates its risks, then develop and implement Many private sector organizations have involved in building codes, and with of up to one-third of the transfer tax a comprehensive plan for address- equipment and cutting-edge technol- other mitigation projects, is through amount to be applied to earthquake ing those risks. Communities used ogy that could be of great assistance locally based initiatives. When I was upgrades on homes. Additionally, their funding from FEMA to update following a major catastrophic event. at FEMA, we started Project Impact, a Tool Lending Library was created building codes or retrofit existing It is imperative that we do not wait a community-based, pre-disas- whereby hand and power tools can be buildings according to the codes, as in until after a disaster strikes to know ter prevention initiative. Through loaned for free to Berkeley residents Freeport, New York, where building how government and businesses can Project Impact, FEMA worked with along with basic instructional advice codes now require hurricane straps to work together. local organizations and the busi- on home repairs and upgrading for make the community’s houses more ness community to facilitate public- seismic safety. According to the Asso- hurricane resistant. private partnerships that recognized ciation of Bay Area Governments, FEMA’s goal was to help the the frequency prevention as a long-term invest- 38 percent of single-family homes communities help themselves. The and intensity of natural disasters grow- ment. Among the California cities in Berkeley have had seismic and fire partnerships formed at the local level ing, it is imperative for businesses and involved in Project Impact were safety improvements since the imple- for preparedness and mitigation made governments—including schools, the City of Berkeley, the City of mentation of Project Impact. In San citizens better informed and brought universities, and hospitals—to be Oakland, Napa County, the City and Bernardino County, county officials communities together to find solu- leaders in forming partnerships for Bold Leadership in Crisis Management–A Call to Action 176/177 James Lee Witt

In the wake of the next I feel a special connection to preparedness needs to be institu- These community-based public disaster, when the water President Harry Truman. We were tionalized in every citizen, commu- education initiatives are valuable recedes or the smoke clears, both raised in small towns by hard nity, business, schools and universi- tools not only to create awareness, can the city government working, ethical parents; neither of ties throughout the state. Everyone but also to prepare us for an actual keep working? us attended college; and both of us should be planning for the inevitable disaster event. were elected county judge. Histo- crisis to occur. Going forward, we as a nation disaster and catastrophic prepared- ry, of course, records significant need to ensure that what happened ness. The Project Impact initiative difference that I did not serve in during Hurricanes Katrina and Rita continues to be a catalyst and Congress or live in the White House. times it is difficult for does not happen again. Hundreds of model for public-private partner- Yet I regard him as a role model for people who have not been through a local businesses were forced to close ship efforts worldwide. the extraordinary strength of char- disaster to understand the devasta- their doors after Hurricane Katrina. acter that empowered him to make tion. If they did, there would be no In the wake of the next disaster, Strong Leadership tough decisions. question about preparing and plan- when the water recedes or the smoke “Once a decision was made,” ning to minimize the impact. One clears, can the city government keep Disasters often create chaos and con- said President Truman, “I did not can do a lot in a small amount of working? Can businesses get back fusion, accompanied by a mismatch worry about it afterward.” Leadership time to prepare, and it is important up and running? Can individu- between the needs and resources avail- means carrying and fostering a vision, to increase the number of individual als and families rebuild their lives able to both responders and citizens and he seemed to relish this respon- citizens prepared to take care of after losing everything? If employ- at large. All my years of experience sibility. The famous sign on his desk themselves during first 72 hours— ees cannot report to work for an in crisis management have shown me asserted “The buck stops here,” and even up to the first five days—follow- extended period of time, will they be time and again that effective leader- that was reflective of his qualities as ing a disaster. In Los Angeles Coun- able to work remotely? If these are ship makes all the difference. In quiet a leader. ty, there is a very effective citizen important questions for the private times, leadership can sometimes education, awareness, and prepared- sector, they are critical ones for recede behind the smooth flow of Personal and Community ness campaign called the Emergency ensuring the continuity of opera- predictable events. But when disas- Education and Planning Survival Program (ESP). ESP is a tions and government. ter hits, leadership must dominate. campaign designed to increase Business owners can designate For me, effective leaders have three I cannot overemphasize that disas- emergency preparedness at home, in alternative sites for operations so key attributes; vision, the courage to ter preparedness is for everyone— the community, at work and at employees will know where to report, make tough decisions, and the ability governments, business, communi- school. In San Francisco, there is a and plan for employees who can work to inspire others to unified action. ties, families and individuals. Disaster similar campaign called “72 hours.” from home. They can also make Bold Leadership in Crisis Management–A Call to Action 178/179 James Lee Witt

agreements with banks to ensure they In a mass casualty or catastrophic government meet increased demand I was in St. Bernard Parrish, Loui- can make payroll. They can establish event, we must plan better on how for basic supplies such as water, food, siana, in the aftermath of Hurricane contingency plans, draft memoran- we are going to handle the massive energy, and shelter. Katrina, there was one working radio. dums of understanding to address number of folks, especially at-risk When officials stood on the roof, they reimbursement and liability and or vulnerable populations (seniors, had a weak signal at best. We will not build relationships before an event. special-needs population, etc.), who be fully able to deal with have effective response and recov- These actions will help to further will need medical care, shelter, and disasters and emergencies, our local, ery until we have fully interoperable strengthen the ability of state and other assistance. And as we learned state, and federal responders, emer- communications. local governments and the business from Katrina and Rita, emergency gency managers and political leader- During my eight years as director community to recover after the next housing sites should be located away ship need to be well informed and of FEMA, we conducted all-hazards major disaster. from equally at-risk areas, preventing well trained. This can only be achieved disaster response drills, training, and the double evacuation of New Orleans by having a substantial training and exercises with local and state govern- evacuees and, similarly, local Texans exercise program. Emphasis needs to ment and response agencies every capacity– the around Houston and Galveston. be placed on re-energizing and year. We built relationships among all ability to access additional resources Creating an inventory of avail- supporting emergency management those who are involved in response and during an emergency–is a serious able assets and establishing pre-event training capabilities to ensure for all- recovery aspects in one way or anoth- concern, especially when we consider contracts is also a great way to prepare hazard training and exercises, the er. Even if it wasn’t a time of crisis, the catastrophic impact of a major for catastrophic disasters. It has facilitation and delivery of exercises I would pick up the phone to ask if earthquake in the Los Angeles or San been reported that the private sector and a more robust outreach to state there is anything FEMA could do to Francisco areas. Cities and hospitals controls approximately 85 percent agencies and local government. help a state or local community better have started working on surge capac- of the critical infrastructure in our Communication is a founda- prepare itself and its citizens. This ity plans for hospitals, shelters, and nation. Because of this, the business tion for public safety. I am a firm communication strategy builds the schools. States must prepare their community must be included with supporter of enacting a national stan- trust and camaraderie that are essen- at-risk populations with emergency local and state emergency planning dard for interoperable communica- tial components of successful decision plans that are tested and enforced officials during the initial planning tions, whereby agencies with differ- making during a time of crisis. for assisted-living centers, nursing phases of preparedness. There must be ent systems and equipment can still homes, and public housing. There a seat at the table for business, because exchange information. We need both should be plans in place to address too much is a stake not to enlist this interoperable communications and spate of major catastrophes disasters before, during, and after valuable resource. By planning ahead, reliable back-up communications for –including the South Asian tsunami they have taken place. private groups can help a local or state all cities, counties, and states. When in 2004, Hurricane Katrina in Bold Leadership in Crisis Management–A Call to Action 180/181 James Lee Witt

2005, the Myanmar cyclone and the communities for years to come. devastating earthquake in Sichuan, I believe that the same principles of China, both in 2008–have once prevention and partnership can work again demonstrated the awesome and for any country or any community. destructive power of natural disas- I also believe people work more ters. These mega-disasters were efficiently through a balance of responsible for staggering loss of government leadership and commu- life: more than 200,000 killed by nity partnerships, rather than simply the tsunami; 73,000 from the Kash- through government mandates. mir earthquake; more 1,200 in Because disaster preparedness, Hurricane Katrina. The Myanmar prevention and mitigation programs government estimates the cyclone’s are successful only if the local commu- death toll will exceed 100,000; in nity is committed to making them China, nearly 70,000 people have work, government agencies alone been reported dead. cannot make prevention an everyday activity. The people at the local level best understand their own needs, and we recognize the importance they must have the resources to make of preparedness, and begin to do improvements. Once we all under- things differently, the model of coop- stand why mitigation is so important, erative, common sense prevention will we will have the strength, individually save lives, secure jobs, protect our and collectively, to make our commu- environment, and strengthen our nities safer. 182/183

Christoph Niemann 184/185 186/187 188/189 190/191

SECTION 4: The Longest Second: The Earthquake comes The Longest Second: The Earthquake Comes 192/193 Judith Lewis

And start counting. Counting the the challenges of emergency response stand in the door frame. number of seconds that pass will tell in extraordinary times. And Ellis M. you how big the quake was, and how Stanley, Sr., former General Manager of This advice, coming from the far it traveled along a given fault. It will the City of Los Angeles Emergency Pre- Southern California Earthquake Center’s also help you stay calm. (Six seconds of paredness Department, talks to Aileen director of communications, Mark Ben- shaking is a magnitude 6.5; 20 seconds is Farnan Antonier about spreading the thien, distresses many lifelong Califor- a 7. A 7.8 magnitude earthquake will shake word in a crisis. nians, most of whom were responsibly for the longest 50 seconds of your life.) schooled from an early age that the place Three first-person accounts in where the door cuts into the wall is the this section describe what it’s like to safest place to wait out an earthquake. live through an earthquake: Poet David “We no longer recommend that you stand Hernandez writes of nature’s reminder in the door frame during an earthquake,” that we live here as we do anywhere, on he says. A door frame won’t protect you “Her” terms. Lawrence Weschler gets a from falling debris, it might fall over with quick hands-on course in geology from the building you’re in, and you prob- the 1994 Northridge quake. And John ably won’t be able to stand up anyway. Fante, in an excerpt from Ask The Dust, The belief that a doorframe will protect describes the terrible scene after the you in an earthquake harks back to an Long Beach temblor in 1933, and the earlier time in California construction crushing personal guilt that often follows codes, when often the only part of a what we still call “an act of God.” house left standing after a quake was Kathleen Tierney of the National the frame that once held a door. Those Hazards Center has devoted her life to houses were made of adobe, and we understanding collective response to don’t make houses in California out of those events, and she weighs in here plain adobe anymore. about her work, which includes evaluat- Instead, says Benthien, “drop, cover, ing human’s mid-crisis priorities. Two and hold on. Pretty much anywhere you’re professors from the John F. Kennedy at, that’s the best thing to do. Drop to the School of Government, Arnold M. Howitt

ground before the earthquake drops you.” and Herman B. “Dutch” Leonard, detail Everett Ching Bold Leadership in Crisis Management - A Call to Action 194/195 James Lee Witt

David Hernandez Katherine Siy Katherine “When Mother Nature Visits Southern California” 196/197 David Hernandez

Before we knew it the palm trees were shaking like pompoms, seagulls were pinned flat against buildings like pressed flowers, and the billboards down Sunset Boulevard took to the air with the swiftness of a magician’s card trick.

The wind’s howling kept us up all night, Imagine a blowdryer as big as a 747 engine outside your front door. Imagine that sound at three in the morning, windows rattling, car alarms caterwauling in the distance.

Although the windstorm eventually dwindled to a breeze, some of us knew She would return, lugging stadium-size buckets of water, or wielding a jackhammer with a blueprint of our fault lines rolled under one of Her massive arms.

We surrounded our homes with sandbags. We slept under doorframes and dinner tables. We waited for Her to remind us whose turf we were on. 198/199

A profile of Kathleen Tierney by Aileen Farnan Antonier

Kathleen Tierney is director of the National Hazards Center, a clearinghouse for knowledge and information on natural disasters. Chieh Ni Chu Ni Chieh Disaster Research: Studying Collective Behavior 200/201 Aileen Farnan Antonier

In a disaster, people’s lives are disrupted indiscrimi- tor of the Natural Hazards Center sociology department at University nately, and the ways in which they cope with the resulting (NHC) at the University of Colora- of California, Los Angeles. “I began destruction and disorder are not governed by everyday do at Boulder. As an undergraduate to get more and more involved in rules and expectations. student majoring in sociology, she the area of earthquakes. Over the 10 got interested in the field of collective years I spent in California—at UCLA, behavior, the study of social processes the University of Southern Califor- and events that do not reflect exist- nia, the California Seismic Safety people consid- Angeles that day,” says Tierney. “I was ing social structure but which emerge Commission, and UC Irvine—a series er themselves lucky when they are far able to start a quick response study the in a spontaneous way. Tierney was of earthquakes happened in Califor- removed from disaster; relieved to have first day, before I was joined by other drawn to graduate study at Ohio State nia, which gave me more research been personally spared an experience DRC staffers a couple of days later.” because E.L. Quarantelli, a renowned experience in doing community like the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami Quick response research collects specialist in disaster research, and the studies on the earthquake threat.” or Hurricane Katrina. Then there’s information on people’s attitudes Disaster Research Center—the first a breed of person who chases torna- and actions that would be lost if it of its kind in the world, founded by dos, flies into eyes of hurricanes…and were not gathered immediately after a Quarantelli—were there. weeks after wants to ride out an earthquake before damaging event. Its aims are to under- “I thought that disasters were an Tierney’s move to the East Coast in its aftershocks subside. stand circumstances and to document ideal context in which to pursue my 1989 to assume the position of Kathleen Tierney is such a per- evidence that will not survive once interest in collective behavior,” says research director at the Disaster son, and that’s why she was happy to cleanup and recovery begins. Just as Tierney. In a disaster, people’s lives Research Center, which was now at be on vacation in Puerto Vallarta, engineers perform post-event recon- are disrupted indiscriminately, and the University of Delaware, Hurri- Mexico, when the Northridge earth- naissance to make improvements in the ways in which they cope with the cane Hugo devastated the South- quake struck on January 17, 1994. structural engineering, social scien- resulting destruction and disorder are east. Three weeks after that, Loma Only she among her fellow research- tists use observation, interaction, not governed by everyday rules and Prieta hit the San Francisco Bay ers at the Disaster Research Center and interviews to gain insight into the expectations. “The Disaster Research area. It was a busy time in the disas- (DRC) in the ice-bound Northeast behavior of society, organizations, Center would give me the opportuni- ter research business. was able to make it to the earthquake and individuals. ty to travel, to do field work in other Tierney’s work with earthquakes site within a few hours of the event. “My whole career has been bound communities, and to be involved with includes her participation in a study “I turned on CNN that morn- up one way or another in disasters and major funded research.” to obtain data on public percep- ing, saw the earthquake, went to the disaster research,” says Tierney, now After five years at the DRC, Tier- tions of likely damage and disrup- airport, and flew immediately to Los a professor of sociology and direc- ney did her post-doctoral work in the tion following an earthquake in the Disaster Research: Studying Collective Behavior 202/203 Aileen Farnan Antonier

San Francisco Bay area. “We discov- of the hazards research and applica- from universities all over the coun- ered that people are very aware of tions communities together for face- try. “So perhaps I would do field the earthquake threat,” Tierney says. to-face networking and discussion research myself or send my staff to do “We also wanted to know whether about current issues and trends that it,” she says, “but I would also ensure they could attach importance to vari- affect how society deals with hazards that researchers who wanted quick ous elements in the built environ- and disasters. The center main- response funds from us got them.” ment, such transportation networks, tains a library that houses a unique bridges, commercial buildings. We collection of social science litera- asked, ‘What are the elements within ture and HazLit, a searchable online your community that you insist must database that provides full access to remain operational during an earth- the library’s holdings. It also hosts quake?’ What came up were elec- Disaster Grads, an e-mail listserv for trical power systems, water systems, informal discussion and information and hospital and health care systems. sharing among undergraduate and Then we asked them about their will- graduate students who do research in ingness to pay to for programs to the area of hazards and disasters. strengthen structures and lifelines. People showed their general willing- ness to pay for seismic improvements that she’s director in the East Bay even if that meant they of the NHC, Tierney may not be able would have to pay more.” to drop everything and run to the In 2003, Tierney moved to the next major earthquake site. Among National Hazards Center. The NHC her responsibilities is the administra- primarily functions as a clearing- tion of the center’s Quick Response house for knowledge on disasters. Program, a travel grant program for

The center publishes a newsletter, the social and behavioral scientists who Chu Ni Chieh Natural Hazards Observer, six times a wish to go quickly to a disaster site to year, with a circulation of 15,000. gather data that would otherwise be The center organizes an annual lost. After Hurricane Katrina, the workshop designed to bring members program funded 26 different teams 204/205

Excerpt from

Lawrence Weschler

“The world seems to hit you, to hit you hard, and then again, and then another time,” writes author Lawrence Weschler. “And on top of all that there’s the noise—a strange, curious noise, it takes a few moments to identify what it could possibly be—the sound of you screaming.” Excerpted from an essay published in the Threepenny Review, Summer 1994, this first-hand account of the Northridge earthquake on January 17, 1994, comes as close as any to placing the reader in this strangest of moments, with all its peculiar sights and sounds. Brenna Pribadi Brenna Excerpt from “The L.A. Quake” 206/207 Lawrence Weschler

last January’s and underneath it all, some other and table in the house bouncing all bay, mirrored walls on either side quake knocked a sleeping friend of sound, at first indecipherable: lull- about; it’s the sound of your heart recapitulating the glorious view. He mine right out of the bed in her ing, calming, pastoral... gurgling. A come leaping into your skull in sheer woke to the sound of an explosion, Hollywood flatlands home, she stum- mountain stream, perhaps. And in terror. Because then, too, there’s the which was the glass wall bursting onto bled through the dark to her shuttered fact a mountain stream, precisely: shoving: the world seems to hit you, his lap. Luckily it was safety glass and living-room window and tweaked a going out to the front yard I now to hit you hard, and then again, and it shattered into tiny jewel-like cubes, crack open in the Venetian blinds, realized that the underground reser- then another time, really hard, and which presently buried him inches only to witness, at that very moment, voir which ordinarily supplies all of then once more. And on top of all deep in his sheets. The building had a shooting star streaking across the Santa Monica from the top of the that there’s the noise—a strange, curi- begun swaying dramatically, as it was sky. Subsequently she recalled for hill must have sprung a leak, and the ous noise, it takes a few moments to designed to do in such circumstances me how she was thereupon visited by downsloping roadway had become a identify what it could possibly be—the (better that it whip about like that two immediate thoughts, one riding flowing watercourse. sound of you screaming. than that it fracture): only, at that fast upon the other: the first (deeply height, the sway was on the order of primordial), that this must indeed be several yards in each direction. That the Apocalypse; the second (preter- actually, had anyway, that’s how it all torque in turn quickly compromised naturally rational), that if she was been my primary experience of the seemed to me. And I had it easy. As I the perpendicularity of the walls, and even capable of seeing the stars at quake itself a few moments earlier, say, I was on a hill, which is to say on the floor-to-ceiling mirrors began all, well, then, the quake must have even more so than the shaking—or the first floor of a house anchored in shattering convulsively. (They were knocked out the electricity all over rather maybe they were both the same. solid bedrock. For people down not safety glass.) All of this in the town. As, indeed, it had. Everything was reverberation, as I below, in the loose-soiled sedimen- pitch dark. The earth’s shaking was by The quake knocked me out of came jolting to wakefulness—wildly tary flood plain, or else high atop now communicating itself through to a bed in a house on a Santa Monica various resonance—and my entire skyscrapers, it was a whole lot scarier. the top stories, and next, most horri- hillside (I’d just arrived in town for body one great throbbing ear. The Later that day I heard the story of a fying of all, the building itself began a brief visit earlier that very evening), noise is the sound of the earth itself guy who was in town visiting from shuddering in harmonic resonance. and as I stumbled outside, the city- wracking (the rockplates inside the New York, staying with friends in Those superfast vibrations in turn scape spread out below me was ink- ground crashing up against one their penthouse apartment, twenty began to impel the bed, slowly but black in every direction—blacker another); it’s the sound of the walls stories up a tower nestled on the rim inexorably, toward the suddenly than the sky—and eerily noisy: dogs and joints throughout your house of the palisade overlooking the ocean. looming abyss. The quake only lasted baying, glass tinkling, car and burglar slamming; it’s the sound of every They’d lent him the best bed in the fifteen seconds, which was lucky, alarms wailing plaintively. All that, unattached book and plate and couch house—glass wall gazing out over the because by the time it stopped, the Excerpt from “The L.A. Quake” 208/209 Lawrence Weschler

bed had already shimmied more than counterwave moving off of the face of and the hum dissipates, but just right halfway across the room. the underground “wall” echoing back and the vibrations can get so strong the other, redoubling the quake’s as to shatter the glass.) Thus, ironi- intensity. In Santa Monica, waves that cally, some buildings (or freeway initial rupture in any had traveled fifteen miles hit the edge overpasses) may have been destroyed earthquake might be likened to an of the palisade facing the ocean and because the underlying ground vibra- atomic explosion—a sudden release then bounded back. (The damage in tions were too slow. This, too, helps of titanic amounts of energy at a Santa Monica was most severe in the explain why one house might have single point which thereupon gets twenty blocks closest to the coast.) On buckled while its immediate neigh- conveyed across space in the form of any given street, the one wave might bor emerged largely unscathed. It was waves. But whereas in an atomic be at its crest while the counterwave a wonderfully educational week to be explosion the energy radiates out was at its trough and they’d in effect in L.A. more or less evenly through atmo- cancel each other out: relatively calm sphere (much like the wavelets sailing for those on the surface. But rippling out across the surface of a just a few streets over both waves could previously placid pond in the wake of be cresting at the same place, and a dropped pebble), with a quake, the those people were in for quite a ride. waves are moving through earth of And in fact it wasn’t just the radically varying densities, slowing intensity of the ground’s shaking that down or speeding up, expanding or determined the extent of the damage. constricting, depending on the As in the case of my friend in the consistency of the soils through which penthouse, every structure has its own they pass. (Thus, my house on the unique and inherent harmonic pitch, rock face of the hill was less affected a frequency at which it will begin than those in the sandy flood plain to vibrate on its own in response to down below.) More disconcertingly, any outside stimulus. (Think, for the transition from one sort of instance, about how you can get a surface to another often set off coun- champagne glass to start moaning ter-reverberations: you get the initial merely by circling its rim with your wave moving one direction and a wettened finger: too fast or too slow 210/211

Arnold M. Howitt & Herman B. “Dutch” Leonard

Arnold M. Howitt is executive director of the Taubman Center for State and Local Government at the John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University. Herman B. “Dutch” Leonard is the Baker Professor of Public Management at the Kennedy School and the Snider Professor of Business Administration at Harvard Business School. Together they are faculty chairs of a Kennedy School execu- tive education program Leadership in Crises and direct a research program on emergency preparedness and crisis management. Vincent Hui Vincent The Novelty of Crises: How to Prepare for the Unprecedented 212/213 Arnold M. Howitt and Herman B. “Dutch” Leonard

In this article*, Howitt and Leonard discuss the difficulties of assemble people and resources from Scalability and Surge Capacity. preparing for unprecedented crises. While routine emergencies scratch, or divide up roles and respon- In severe disasters, responders must require enormous strength, the novelty of a crisis may call upon the sibilities before taking action. But in quickly scale up operations to cope creativity and improvisation of emergency responders to marshal per- a crisis, the elements of novelty may with far greater numbers of endan- sonnel and supplies, reduce immediate dangers, and save lives. invalidate predetermined emergency gered people, more extensive damage, plans even though they may function and a more extended emergency peri- quite well in dealing with routine od than they usually face. If the crisis emergencies. Badly damaged road- lasts for weeks, as one resulting from ways, for example, could turn a high- a major earthquake in Los Angeles way evacuation route into an obstruc- undoubtedly would, responders will tion rather than a path away from also have to cope with resource deple- disaster. tion and personnel exhaustion. But Compared with routine emer- no local jurisdiction could bear the gencies, therefore, crises require expense of stocking sufficient assets The Core Challenges of these more common (though possibly quite different capabilities. In crises, for a large-scale disaster that might Disaster Response very severe) routine emergencies in responders must first quickly diag- never occur. What some see as a stra- having significant elements of novel- nose any elements of novelty that may tegic reserve, others might regard as a Recognizing Novelty and ty. The novel features may result from invalidate their expectations and prior waste of resources. Effectively Improvising threats never before encountered: plans. Then they need to impro- Necessary Responses. from a more familiar event occurring vise response measures adequate to In the course of their regular work, at an unprecedented scale, outstrip- cope with the unanticipated dimen- a major disaster strikes, it emergency responders ready them- ping available resources; or from a sions of the emergency. These is virtually inevitable that affect- selves for a wide range of urgent confluence of forces, which, though measures, born of necessity, may be ed jurisdictions will have to import circumstances. We call these “routine not new, pose unique challenges in quite different from or exceed in and effectively absorb support from emergencies” not because they are in combination. scale anything responders have done surrounding areas or—in very severe some sense “easy,” but because the Careful preparation for routine before. Responders therefore need circumstances—from around the predictability of the general situation emergencies constitutes an enormous to be creative and extremely adaptable nation. Access to some resources can permits agencies to prepare in advance source of strength. Responders don’t to improvise appropriate tactics, and be arranged in advance, but the novel and apply lessons from prior experi- need to size up the situation for an rough implementation may have to be circumstances of a crisis may also ence. By contrast, “crises” differ from extended period, plan their response, good enough. generate unexpected demands. As The Novelty of Crises: How to Prepare for the Unprecedented 214/215 Arnold M. Howitt and Herman B. “Dutch” Leonard

Hurricane Katrina revealed, it is far what is truly unfolding. Finally, situ- tions to frame and rapidly implement when difficult, controversial trade- from a simple matter to mobilize and ational awareness involves being able response actions under enormous offs must be made—NIMS lacks the operationally deploy the right kind of to generate possible alternative cours- pressure. Congress has also recog- political and moral authority to make resources in sufficient amounts and es of action and assess which hold the nized the need for such preparation, the hard choices that present them- in a timely fashion. most promise of dealing with emer- as reflected in the 2002 statutory selves. In the aftermath of a major gency conditions. requirement for a National Incident Los Angeles earthquake, do response Maintaining Situational Management System (NIMS) that is leaders—whether police commanders, Awareness. Integrated Execution compatible with SEMS. However, fire chiefs, or public health direc- In any crisis, responders (both indi- in Real Time. much work remains to develop skills in tors—have the legitimacy to decide viduals and organizations) must In a major disaster, as local agencies many jurisdictions that make limited which areas should get resources and maintain “situational awareness.” confront extraordinary operational use of these systems or in profession- which should not? Do they have the That is, they need to gather and demands, many emergency respond- al disciplines that have been unaware community standing and ability to assimilate key facts—often under ers from outside the area are likely of or unenthusiastic about them. mobilize public support behind a conditions of great confusion, poor to converge on the scene. This will And as Hurricane Katrina revealed, difficult decision? communication, and high uncer- demand skillful coordination of aid the procedures to coordinate feder- tainty. As important as good intel- workers, equipment, and organiza- al agencies with each other and with ligence is, however, robust situ- tions coming from different profes- state and local responders are neither invest elected leaders ational awareness involves far more. sions, agencies, jurisdictions, levels fully adequate nor effectively applied with the authority to make key deci- Decision-makers must also be able to of government, and the public and when required. sions about values and priorities for project the implications of the infor- private sectors—even though many our society and to rally their commu- mation they have gathered, so they of these people and organizations Operational vs. nities behind their choices. But in can anticipate the likely consequences have had little or no prior experience Political Leadership. a future emergency that cuts across of a fluid situation. With anticipa- working together. Widespread deployment and skillful organizational, jurisdictional, and tion comes at least some possibility of use of NIMS is a necessary but not level of government boundaries— changing the future before it arrives. sufficient condition for integrated particularly if government has been Projecting likely consequences also the early 1990s, California crisis response. The NIMS template partially disabled by the crisis, as it provides responders with a way of established the Standardized Emer- has proved a highly effective techni- was during and after Katrina—it tracking what actually results against gency Management System (SEMS), cal system when goals are relatively may be unclear who has this author- what they expected, thus providing a a flexible template for leading crisis unambiguous. By contrast, when ity and difficult to assemble them in check on how well they understand operations that enables organiza- goals are unclear or in conflict— the heat of the moment. The NIMS The Novelty of Crises: How to Prepare for the Unprecedented 216/217 Arnold M. Howitt and Herman B. “Dutch” Leonard

model does not include an effective or paralysis. It is not enough, however, being able to locate, mobilize, and develop a cadre of senior disaster way to coordinate political leaders for procedures to exist. Newly elected move resources swiftly—and to coordi- managers—in cities, states, and at the and operational commanders, espe- or appointed officials need to think nate their use effectively upon arrival at federal level—who develop proficien- cially when multiple jurisdictions are through their personal preparedness— a disaster scene. cy and deep experience in managing involved. The United States has not how well equipped they are to fulfill Making the National Incident emergencies. yet confronted this need, let alone their substantive functions and moral Management System truly operational As Katrina demonstrated, crises fully thought it through and invented responsibilities as crisis leaders. Insti- at the local and state levels, as well as demand levels of coordination of the emergency policy-making institu- tutionally, senior officials should clarifying and effectively integrating it governmental and non-governmental tions it requires. address the conditions and procedures with the National Response Plan at the resources, including many that are not under which handoffs would be made, federal level is a critical step. It is also part of the normal configuration of Handoffs Across Boundaries. rather than addressing their obliga- important to develop enhanced mutual emergency agencies. Coordination, As action in a crisis scales up and becomes tions for the first time in the midst of aid agreements that authorize and make moreover, has both a technical and more complex, political leadership or catastrophe. operational a wider range of coopera- political component—which necessi- specific responsibilities may need to tive arrangements between communi- tates construction of an infrastructure be transferred from those initially in Improving Disaster Response ties, states, and within regions for all of coordination along both dimen- charge to others with different skills or emergency response functions. sions. The NIMS system is an impor- broader authority and resources. Yet Addressing these core problems, tant step in that direction, as is the frequently, as observed in the Katrina particularly when the novel demands deepening web of mutual aid agree- response, this produces substantial of a crisis must be met, means moving first responders ments among jurisdictions. Yet both friction. In the midst of crisis, political forward effectively in four realms: and emergency managers throughout practice and relationships are crucial leaders may find it personally or politi- capabilities, structures and systems, the emergency response system have to the effective use of this infrastruc- cally difficult to recognize or acknowl- people, and coordination. a general need for training and exer- ture. It must be given life by being edge that exigent events surpass their Successful disaster response criti- cising. This training must be regular exercised regularly—through simu- ability to cope; they may, in fact, resist cally depends on adequate surge capac- and varied, to keep skills sharp and to lated and real action—and by build- turning full or partial responsibility ity: having sufficient equipment, prepare new members of these profes- ing personal relationships among the over to others better situated to deal supplies, transportation, and trained sions for the threats they may encoun- people who will be involved when a with circumstances. responders able to sustain themselves ter. In addition, there is a need to real disaster strikes. Addressing in advance the possi- in the field for the necessary length of bilities inherent in disaster scenarios time. In the United States, the main * This article draws on work previously published by the authors in the Fletcher Forum of World Affairs, Vol. 30:1, Winter 2006, pp. can reduce the chances of hesitation challenge is not lack of resources but 215-221; and the Crisis/Response Journal, Vol. 2, No. 2 (June 2006), pp. 52-53, and No. 3 (September 2006), pp. 54-56. 218/219

Excerpt from

John Fante Kevin Wong Kevin Excerpt from Ask the Dust 220/221 John Fante

got up and plodded through the looking about me. I ran a few steps the rumbling continued. Chimneys From everywhere sirens sounded. deep sand toward the boardwalk. It was toward the sea. Then I ran back. toppled, bricks fell and a grey dust Above, airplanes droned, and detach- the full ripeness of evening, with the You did it, Arturo. This is the settled over all. Still the temblors. ments of sailors and marines poured sun a defiant red ball as it sank beyond wrath of God. You did it. Men and women running toward an through the streets. Stretcher-bear- the sea. There was something breath- empty lot away from buildings. ers dashed into ruined buildings. less about the sky, a strange tension. Now the lamp posts were Two ambulances backed toward the Far to the south sea gulls in a black falling. Buildings cracked shed. I got up and walked away. The mass roved the coast. I stopped to pour like crushed crackers. hurried to the lot, an old women Red Cross had moved in. There was sand from my shoes, balanced on one Screams, men shouting, wept among the white faces. Two men an emergency headquarters at one leg as I leaned against a stone bench. women screaming. carrying a body. An old dog, crawling corner of the lot. They were handing on his belly, dragging his hind legs. out big tins of coffee. I stood in line, This is the Wrath The rumbling continued. Like Several bodies in the corner of the the man ahead of me was talking. of God a carpet over oil, the sea and land lot, beside a shed, blood-soaked “It’s worse in Los Angeles,” he heaved. Dust rose. Somewhere I heard sheets covering them. An ambulance. said. “Thousands dead.” Suddenly, I felt a rumble, then a booming of debris. I heard screams, Two high school girls, arms locked, a roar. and then a siren. People running out laughing. The building fronts were The stone bench fell away from of doors. Great clouds of dust. down. Beds hung from walls. Bath- me and thumped into the sand. I You did it, Arturo. Up in that rooms were exposed. The street was looked at the row of concessions: they room on that bed you did it. piled with three feet of debris. Men were shaking and cracking. I looked Now the lamp posts were falling. were shouting orders. Each temblor beyond to the Long Beach skyline; the Buildings cracked like crushed crack- brought more tumbling debris. They tall buildings were swaying. Under me ers. Screams, men shouting, women stepped aside, waited, then plunged the sand gave way; I staggered, found screaming. Hundreds of people rush- in again… safer footing. It happened again. ing from buildings, hurrying out of It was an earthquake. danger. A woman lying on the side- Now there were screams. Then walk, beating it. A little boy crying. was dark now. A few stars dust. Then crumbling and roaring. I Glass splintering and shattering. Fire appeared. The temblors were cease- turned round and round in a circle. bells. Sirens. Horns. Madness. less, coming every few seconds. A I had done this. I had done this. I Now the big shake was over. Now wind rose from the sea and it grew stood with my mouth open, paralyzed, there were tremors. Deep in the earth cold. People huddled in groups. Bold Leadership in Crisis Management - A Call to Action 222/223 James Lee Witt

A profile of Ellis M. Stanley, Sr. by Aileen Farnan Antonier

Ellis M. Stanley, Sr. spent a decade working on emergency planning in the city of Los Angeles, and until 2007 was the general manager of the City of Los Angeles Emergency Preparedness Depart- ment. He is now director of western emergency management services for Dewberry LLC, a national planning, design, and management services firm, and assisted the city of Denver in coordinating the Democratic National Convention. Clifford Elbl Clifford Communication: The Weakest Link 224/225 Aileen Farnan Antonier

I took this practitioners of this relatively young “We recently had a couple If the Puente Hills scenario position in 1997, I was actually elat- field. Stanley received his training in of earthquakes that had becomes a reality anytime soon, our ed that I was coming to ‘Disaster 1975 at what was then the only emer- tsunami warnings attached. ability to deal with it is uncertain. Central,’” says Ellis Stanley, general gency management program in the I found out on CNN,” Stanley “On a given day we have a 25,000-bed manager of the Emergency Prepared- country, the Defense Civil Prepared- says. “I shouldn’t be finding capacity in all of Los Angeles Coun- ness Department of the City of Los ness Staff College in Battle Creek, that out on CNN.” ty,” Stanley says, “which may not be Angeles. “I believed I was coming to Michigan. Today, over 125 colleges adequate for the number of injured. a community that ‘got it.’ Everyone’s and universities have degrees in nia Earthquake Center, the Big One That’s worsened by the fact that hospi- well prepared—after all, they just emergency management. doesn’t even have to be that big: a tal collapses are possible because all had Northridge three years earlier. “The beauty of emergency man- earthquake of magnitude 7.2 to 7.5 the hospitals have not been retrofit- I thought, Wow, I’m going to be able to agement here in Los Angeles is that on the Puente Hills Fault, which runs ted in accordance with the legislative come here and we’re really going places. Not is we bring together all different underneath downtown Los Angeles, requirements. The National Guard the case.” disciplines and interests: geologists, could result in 3,000 to 18,000 fatal- that we count on to operate mobile Stanley rocks back in his chair engineers, architects, social scien- ities; 56,000 to 268,000 injuries; field hospitals is now in Iraq. Our in his office in City Hall. He looks tists. I like the psychology of it, the and $250 billion in total damages. major thoroughfares will probably be capable and remarkably calm for a social works aspect of it, and the hard By comparison, the 6.7 Northridge damaged, which will hamper mutual man who daily deals with the pros- science aspect of it. I like being able quake resulted in 33 direct fatalities, aid from other cities.” pect of a disaster—pick one, any one— to get and synthesize information, so 11,000 injuries, and $40 billion in hitting the poorly equipped city and we can apply it with the public. It’s a damages. unprepared population. “We’ve got passion of mine, to help people and to “The perception is that North- Stanley’s opinion, the to change the culture here on every get them excited about knowing how ridge was the Big One,” Stanley says. warning system is probably the weak- level. We have to have the vision and to coexist with the environment.” “It was the biggest one anyone here est link in the emergency prepared- the political will at the very top, get had experienced, but Northridge was ness picture: it needs to be updated, the local jurisdictions to sign on, and not the Big One for Southern Cali- streamlined, and standardized. For get the people engaged.” Southern California, co- fornia. We should be planning for example, earthquake monitoring is Stanley came from Atlanta, existing with the environment means the greater earthquake, not look- the purview of the Department of the where he was director of the Atlanta- coming to terms with the prospect ing back at Northridge as being the Interior and U.S. Geological Survey. Fulton County Emergency Manage- of the “Big One.” And according benchmark for disaster. We spend When an earthquake fits the criteria ment Agency. With over 30 years of to research by the U.S. Geological too much time looking back instead of potentially generating a tsunami, experience, he is one of the earliest Survey and the Southern Califor- of preparing.” the USGS has to issue a tsunami Communication: The Weakest Link 226/227 Aileen Farnan Antonier

warning—but tsunamis come under For the ethnically diverse popu- Homeland Security may have a thou- the Department of Commerce and lation of Los Angeles, preparedness sand points of light. Someone says the National Weather Service. The information has to be distributed prepare to be on your own for 72 two tsunami warning stations are widely, in many forms and languages. hours. Somebody else says prepare for located in Alaska and Hawaii, and The city is a diverse generational envi- 48 hours. Another one says prepare they use different terminology and ronment as well. “I was elated when I for seven days. Guess what? The public technology for reporting their warn- found text messaging and bulletins on doesn’t prepare for anything.” ings. The result? “We recently had a MySpace.com helped rally 500,000 couple of earthquakes that had tsuna- people to protest in the streets of mi warnings attached. I found out on L.A. against proposed immigration CNN,” Stanley says. “I shouldn’t be reform in March 2006,” Stanley finding that out on CNN.” says. “I didn’t know what MySpace was. That’s not in my generation. You can’t access it through the city— communications tech- it’s one of the sites they block. And nology that can gather and dispatch it’s one of the highest hit entities information quickly and effectively around. I called one of the senior certainly is available. “The technol- VPs at MySpace to talk about how we ogy is not an inhibitor anymore. The might be able to use MySpace as a tool challenge is in our ability to take that to reach out to young people.” technology and use it dynamically but Stanley acknowledges there’s much seamlessly,” Stanley says. “In an emer- confusion about what the preparedness gency, your podcast should be down- message should be, and exactly what loading, your cell phone ought to be steps people should take. “We spend going off, and your PDA ought to be too much time and money branding going off. There should be something the messenger, and not the message. coming up on your computer. There’s The Red Cross might have five points not one solution but multiple solu- of preparedness. The Centers for tions that need to be coordinated.” Disease Control might have 21 points of preparedness. The Department of 228/229

The Ann Field Studio 230/231 232/233 234/235 236/237

SECTION 5: Aftermath: the resilient city on a quaking planet 238/239

The banks were grassy and covered with fragrant herbs and watercress. The water flowed afterwards in a deep channel toward the southwest. All the land that we saw this morning seemed admi- rable to us. We pitched camp near the water. This afternoon we felt new earthquakes, the continuation of which astonishes us.

—Fray Juan Crespi, chaplain and diarist for the Portola Expedition, soon after the Los Angeles River is named and crossed, August 3, 1769. Aftermath: The Resilient City on a Quaking Planet 240/241 Judith Lewis

Rebound on an Urban Planet, “locations Survey, and operations research analyst L. Ulin, author of The Myth of Solid to Stanford geophysicist Amos Nur, where in some cases cities were almost Anne M. Wein, describe how to plan Ground: Earthquakes, Prediction and the the ancient city of Troy may have been certainly destroyed by earthquakes.” for resiliency; Mark Ghilarducci, vice Fault Line Between Reason and Faith, destroyed—several times, actually—by Without modern bulldozers, the ancient president of James Lee Witt Associates, contemplates the “culture of erasure,” an earthquake. It’s a theory that makes people who returned to these places— reiterates in detail how all disasters are and wonders how living in a fault zone some sense: The great mound city on settlements strategically located near local. Architect and UC Berkeley Profes- might have influenced how Californians the Aegean Sea lies close to the North water or fertile soil—simply built their sor Mary Comerio explains the process think of their land, and their lives. Anatolian Fault, the same rift in the new cities on the mound of the old, of loss and financial recovery after an Finally, Anne Burdick and Sean planet that crumbled the Turkish city of unaware of the planetary forces that earthquake. Donahue, of the Graduate Media Design Izmit in 1999. By examining the remains leveled great columns before them. “In Reminiscences on past earth- Department at Art Center, offer sepa- of its successive civilizations, Nur has what we call the earthquake belts of the quakes by Arnold Genthe and Carolyn rate accounts of the primary consid- concluded that the damaged foundations world,” Hough writes, “many of them See enclose this section, as a reminder erations and carefully nuanced meth- and crushed skeletons are more consis- cradles of civilizations, there are hun- that disasters happen to actual people, odologies that went into shaping this tent with seismic destruction than they dreds of mound cities.” no matter how detached and clean the Sourcebook, and the entire project. are with the ravages of war. Nur also studies around them might seem. David postulates that an earthquake inspired the biblical prophecy of earthly destruc- sometimes flatter our- tion: The city of Megiddo, Jordan, once selves in the 21st century that we are known as Armageddon, lies astride an immune to apocalypse. But our response active fault. to a magnitude 8 on the San Andreas Nur’s theories are still new and Fault may determine the future of our controversial, but his ideas suggest a communities. Will we come back and phenomenon that’s unassailably true: rebuild, or will our residents find Natural disasters can sometimes mean refuge elsewhere? the end of cities, of communities, indeed In this final section ofThe L.A. of entire civilizations. Earthquake Sourcebook, scientists, so- “The tells and mounds of the ancient ciologists, and experts investigate what world tell a story of urban settlements,” brings cities back from disaster, and writes Susan Hough in her own fascinat- what does them in. Richard L. Bernknopf, ing book, After The Earth Quakes: Elastic an economist with the U.S. Geological 242/243

Excerpt from

Arnold Genthe Sung-Hae Baik Sung-Hae Excerpt from As I Remember 244/245 Arnold Genthe

have often wondered, thinking he said. “What are you doing here? from the Bremer Rathskeller in 1904 disaster in which they had lost their back, what it is in the mind of the Don’t you know that your house is —reserving it for a special occasion homes and all their material posses- individual that so often makes him feel going to be blown up?” It was the first worthy of it. There had been several sions. A cheerful spirit seemed to himself immune to the disaster that time I had thought of such a possibil- gay events that might have justified its prevail throughout and whatever one may be going on all around him. So ity. Turning back I hurried up Sutter consumption, but now there was no had was gladly shared. many whom I met during the day Street to find a militiaman guarding doubt about it. The special occasion seemed completely unconscious that the entrance of my studio. had arrived. I knew that to my unwel- the fire which was spreading through “You can’t get in here,” he said, come guest it would mean nothing, attitude of calmness the city was bound to overtake their handling his rifle in an unpleasant so I brought out for him a bottle of of which I have spoken, the apparent own homes and possessions. I know manner. whiskey and while he poured himself indifference of the people who had that this was so with me. All morning “But it’s my home,” I said. drink after drink, I sipped the wine, lost everything, was perhaps not so and through the early afternoon I “I don’t care whether it is or not. if not with the leisurely enjoyment much a proof of stoic philosophy that wandered from one end of the city to Orders are to clear all houses in the that it called for, at last getting some accepts whatever fate brings. I rather the other, taking pictures without a block. If you don’t do as I say, I shoot, of its exquisite flavor without having believe that the shock of the disaster thought that my studio was in danger. see?” to gulp it down with barbarous haste. had completely numbed our sensi- As I was passing the home of some There were rumors that some of When my militia friend had bilities. I know from my own experi- friends on Van Ness Avenue, they were the militia, drunk with liquor and absorbed enough of his bottle, he ence that it was many weeks before I on the porch and called out, “Come power, had been shooting people. I pushed me through the door saying, could feel sure that my mind reacted in and have a drink.” While we were did not want to argue with him, but I “Now you have got to get out of here and functioned in a normal manner. raising our glasses, there occurred did want to get inside, with the hope or I’ll have to shoot you, see?” From If I had shown any sense, I might another shock. Everyone but my host- that I might save a few of my things. a safe distance I watched with others easily have saved some of the things I ess and I ran outside. “Let us finish “How about a little drink?” the dynamiting of the block of our valued most—family papers, letters anyway,” she said. I asked. homes. There was no expression of and photographs of my parents and “Sure,” I said, giving her as a toast despair. (“Well, there it goes!” “That’s brothers, books written by my closest the line from Horace, “And even that!” being the only comments relatives, and of course my more if the whole world should collapse, all right,” he heard.) That night I slept in Golden important negatives, which I could he will stand fearless among the replied eagerly. Gate Park together with thousands of have carried away in a suitcase. As it falling ruins.” In my cellar I had been keeping others who were in the same plight. was, practically everything I possessed On my way to the Bohemian Club a precious bottle—Johannisberger The crowd there suggested more a had gone up in smoke. I met Charles K. Field. “You dummy,” Schloss 1868, which I had brought camping out than refugees from a 246/247

Judith Lewis with contributions by Richard L. Bernknopf, Mark Ghilarducci, and Anne M. Wein Paul McCreery Paul The Social Cascade: Preserving Communities After a Disaster 248/249 Judith Lewis

that for schools to reopen, and police, too slowly over a significant period is nonlinear, interconnected, and you’re one of the lucky ones. You’ve hospitals, and other public services of time, the community could suffer abstract compared to what happens come through the earthquake safe- limp along with a skeletal staff. Crime permanent economic losses.” to a building.” Both stress that they ly, and your house is still standing. soars, supplies run scarce—ultimate- “Very few people have concen- have no evidence that Los Angeles You had stocked up on food to feed ly, you decide to leave as well. trated on looking at the implications will suffer post-disaster consequences your family for a week. You have cash Until it played out so tragically in of permanent change to a commu- anywhere close to what New Orleans tucked away in a drawer, just for this New Orleans’ Lower Ninth Ward after nity in the wake of an extreme event,” suffered after Katrina. “Other parts emergency. There is gas in your car, Hurricane Katrina, this phenom- Bernknopf says. “What we’re trying of the [Gulf Coast] region that were batteries in your flashlights, water in enon—a cascade of crippling social to understand is how to determine affected as much, if not more [than your 55-gallon food-grade plastic disruptions that can impoverish, or what a community needs in order to New Orleans], are recovering more drum. You’re ready for life to start in some cases obliterate, a commu- the drift back toward normalcy. nity—had been little studied and “You can’t just walk into a community and say ‘Hello, what only minimally understood. “Most kind of risk would you tolerate?’ You have to involve a lot of disaster preparedness focuses on the people in the discussion.” rest of your city, first 72 hours after the event,” says however, has fared less well, and as Richard L. Bernknopf, an economist keep its social fabric intact.” Bern- quickly,” Bernknopf says. “Many that week extends into a month, and with the U.S. Geological Survey who, knopf and Wein’s research into the experts consider Katrina a unique then into three months, and then with a team that includes operations economic consequences of disaster circumstance.” Instead, post-Ka- into a year—and still grocery stores research analyst Anne M. Wein, is recovery, part of the multi-hazards trina New Orleans is one among and churches and schools stay shut- currently studying the ways in which demonstration project led by Lucy many scenarios they’re analyzing for tered—you begin to understand what California cities can survive a large Jones at the USGS, is in its early stag- clues to the economic consequences community means. The neighbors earthquake, not just structurally, but es; the team is still figuring out how of what Wein calls “a potential natural who neglected to reinforce their socially and economically. “In the to model appropriate scenarios that hazard event” in Southern Califor- houses in advance of the earthquake first 72 hours, everybody’s running raise relevant questions. nia. And once a model for that event decide it now costs less to relocate around trying to make things work “Economic and other social has been determined, the next step is than to return and undertake expen- again,” and trying to prevent the consequences are challenging to to engage California’s citizens in the sive repairs. Grocers and other retail more tangible cascade of earthquake- predict,” Wein says. “There’s not an preparedness process. stores board up for lack of business. related fires, landslides and other equivalent to engineering methods “We’re usually talking about Schools stay shut waiting for teachers ground failures. “But if recovery of predicting structural damage; the something with a low probability of to return, families stay away waiting efforts after a severe earthquake go damage to a society and an economy occurring,” Wein adds. “So part of The Social Cascade: Preserving Communities After a Disaster 250/251 Judith Lewis

the challenge is to understand what a people make tradeoffs when there are says Mark Ghilarducci. The former “It’s everybody’s individual re- community considers acceptable risk. resources constraints.” Deputy Director of the California sponsibility to protect their assets,” And because you can’t just walk into Bernknopf and Wein are also Governor’s Office of Emergency he stresses, “to keep their business a community and say ‘Hello, what examining the individual citizen’s Services, Ghilarducci is now vice running, their employees safe, their kind of risk would you tolerate?’ You role in all this: what can the lay president of the crisis and conse- structures standing–to be prepared.” have to involve a lot of people in the public reasonably do to bolster their quence management consulting firm discussion.” community’s ability to bounce back run by former FEMA director James Those people include emergen- after a disaster? After coming to live in Lee Witt. “No matter what the feder- the level of civic infra- cy responders, business owners, city California following the Northridge al government brings in or how the structure, of course, there’s only so planners, and nonprofit relief agen- earthquake in 1994, “earthquake state responds,” he says, “disasters much an individual—or even a group cies. All of them operate with limited insurance became so expensive and are local events that affect people who of individuals—can do. We can’t, for resources, and no one has the luxury the deductible became so high that I live and work and participate in that instance, shore up our own freeway of laying out a business continuity didn’t buy it,” admits Bernknopf, who community, and that’s where disaster overpasses and reinforce our gas lines. plan that will keep all operations up lives in earthquake-prone Los Altos. preparedness activities need to start But Ghilarducci says we owe it to our and running through any disaster. “Instead, I had my house retrofitted. and need to focus.” cities to know where the vulnerabilities For me, it was more cost effective to exist, and pressure local authorities to increase my self-protection than to fix them. it’s a 7.8 on the San Andreas, purchase an insurance policy I wasn’t warns against what he calls “People need to let their local or a 6.5 on the Newport-Inglewood sure would cover my loss.” Because the “9-1-1 syndrome”—the illusion governing councils and legislatures fault right under the city, obviously the resilience of a community after that you can just dial a number and the know that they have expectations. the damage will be widespread and a disaster depends largely on how authorities will always come running That’s how change happens.” extensive,” Bernknopf says. “When many structures remain habitable by to fix things. “There’s a false sense of As a technical advisor and res- you look at specific events, individu- humans, Bernknopf argues that it was security that our public protectors are ponder on the scene at hundreds of als and communities have to decide a sufficiently responsible decision. always going to be there for us,” he disasters over the last 25 years, Ghilar- how to spend their money. And as “It’s an example of an individu- says. “But the federal government is ducci has seen what happens in cities the event gets larger it gets harder to al’s loss-reduction decision,” he says, not part of the local community and where those vulnerabilities either decide how to spend your money.” “in which more than one individual’s therefore generally not vested in the weren’t understood or addressed; “You can’t protect everything,” well-being could be at stake.” local community long term. When he has witnessed the consequences he says. “So the problems that we’re “I think it all points to the famil- they’re done responding and assisting, of poor civic modeling, poor emer- interested in have to do with how iar term that ‘all disasters are local,’” they leave—we’ve seen a lot of that. gency planning and of a population The Social Cascade: Preserving Communities After a Disaster 252/253 Judith Lewis

that failed to adequately consider the Ghilarducci says. “There’s money for or return. But he places the greatest things happen. Whether that means threats to its survival. “I was in Kobe, post-disaster reconstruction. You’re responsibility on the lay public itself. senior citizen groups, churches, or Japan, in 1995 during the earth- seeing an outpouring of philan- the Lion’s Club—those people become quake that leveled the city,” he says, thropic support every time a disaster invested in the community through “and saw a million square meters in occurs. But money won’t matter if you have seen in the worst-case that process, and they get others a city the size of Oakland burn to the can’t apply it to reconstruction and scenarios that true long-term recov- invested in the community. ground partly because the fire hydrant recovery efforts in an effective way. ery begins with people in the commu- “And the people who are invested system they had in place was all under- “I’ve been at the scenes of disas- nity—people who prioritize what gets in the community,” he says, “are the ground.” Firefighters had to first find ters where people donate cloth- done first, second, and third and people who come back.” and then lift this little cover and plug ing, but then officials have no way commit themselves to making those into hydrant systems in streets that to distribute any of it,” he contin- were mostly buried in rubble. ues. “New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina was a good example: They had international donations of money, same year, Ghilar- food, clothing, everything. But they ducci coordinated urban search and didn’t have a process to utilize it well. rescue operations in the aftermath of Millions of tons of commodities were the bombing of the Alfred P. Murrah pouring in—but they were pouring Federal Building in Oklahoma City; in for people who had left. What do 10 years later, he served as an advi- you do with food and clothing in a sor to Louisiana Governor Kathleen community that’s been completely Blanco following Hurricane Katrina. wiped out?” In every instance, the most daunt- Ghilarducci envisions a partner- ing challenge was not luring financial ship of nonprofit and non-govern- and material support for response mental organizations such as Habi- and recovery. It was knowing what to tat for Humanity working in concert do with it once it arrived. with business leaders and government “In my opinion, we have not agencies to restore public services to done nearly enough to address post- levels that allow most residents to stay disaster commodity management,” Bold Leadership in Crisis Management - A Call to Action 254/255 James Lee Witt

Mary Comerio

Mary Comerio is professor and chair, Department of Architecture at the University of California Berkeley; she is the author of Disaster Hits Home: New Policy for Urban Housing Recovery. Everett Ching Everett A Place to Live After the Shaking Stops 256/257 Mary Comerio

people think At the time, the 1994 Northridge 50 percent of the overall estimated were 7,000 single-family homes, about disasters often depends on earthquake seemed like the largest capital losses of $25.7 billion. With 5,000 mobile homes, and approxi- whether they have been in one. Most disaster imaginable. A magnitude secondary economic impacts includ- mately 49,000 apartments that were of us think hurricanes, tornadoes, 6.7, it struck at 4:31 a.m. on Janu- ed, the total loss has been estimat- destroyed or severely damaged. In floods and earthquakes are unfor- ary 17. With its epicenter in the San ed at $40 billion. Eighty percent total, almost 450,000 units (84 tunate events that happen to some- Fernando Valley, about 32 kilome- of the damage occurred in the San percent multifamily) were inspected body else, somewhere else. Even in ters west-northwest of downtown Los Fernando Valley, with the remain- and found to have some damage. The California, the heart of earthquake Angeles, the earthquake was approxi- der spread throughout Los Angeles, most common failure was the collapse country, our transitory population mately the same size and in the same Orange, and Ventura counties. The of “soft first stories” in apartments does not seem to pay attention to the location as the 1971 San Fernando earthquake caused the collapse of and condominiums built over open impending threat. But when a major (Sylmar) earthquake. Northridge seven freeway bridges and damaged ground-floor parking. There were earthquake happens, people will need was much more damaging, however, 250 others. 15 “ghost towns” created—neighbor- to find alternatives to the things they because of the density of develop- hoods where 90 percent of the hous- normally take for granted—a place to ment that occurred in the ensuing ing units were damaged and rendered live, a place to shop, a school, and a 23 years. thousand commercial vacant. In the first months after the way to get to work (if there is a work- and industrial structures and 4,000 earthquake, inspections showed the place remaining). Equally important Unfortunately, less than 15 municipal buildings, schools, univer- majority of damage to be in multi- will be the need for money to replace percent of California home- sities, and medical facilities were family housing, but three years after material losses, to find and rent a owners carry earthquake damaged. There were dramatic build- the event, when a full tally of insur- temporary apartment, to rebuild a insurance today. ing failures in older concrete-frame ance claims was available, it became damaged home. buildings (the Kaiser Medical Build- clear that there was significant minor After any disaster, shelter is an While casualties were limited due ing, the Northridge Fashion Mall damage in about 300,000 single- immediate and pressing problem, to the early morning hour and the and the parking garage at Cal State family homes. but after a major earthquake, finding fact that it was a holiday, Northridge Northridge, for example). Less obvi- The Los Angeles region was in a place to live can be a problem that was the most destructive earth- ous, but equally important, was the an economic recession at the time of lasts for years. In major earthquakes, quake in the United States since the failure of the welded connections in the earthquake, and the multifam- housing losses account for 50 percent great San Francisco quake of 1906. 100 steel-frame buildings. ily housing vacancy rate was about of the total value of the event-related The Northridge earthquake severe- Low rise, wood-frame construc- nine percent. With undamaged units losses and 95 percent of the damaged ly damaged buildings, particularly tion sustained the greatest damage available, and an infusion of federal building stock. wood-frame homes, which comprised in the Northridge quake. There housing assistance, it was relatively A Place to Live After the Shaking Stops 258/259 Mary Comerio

easy to re-house disaster victims, and assistance, and gave $10,000 grants to quake Authority (CEA) to replace that will not be able to afford repairs, most were placed in comparable units 214,000 households. coverage. Unfortunately, less than 15 without insurance and aggressive within their own zip codes within percent of California homeowners federal assistance. three to four weeks. carry earthquake insurance today. And The potential for another Katrina- of September 1996, the the FEMA is no longer an independent scale disaster is immediate, yet difficult California Department of Insurance and professionally managed agency, to fathom and easy to deny. There is no City of Los Angeles reported that there were 195,000 but a subsidiary of the Department of question that the traditional mecha- coordinated a successful effort to residential insurance claims. The Homeland Security with a question- nisms for funding disaster recovery are garner $321 million in Supplemen- average claim was $35,000 and the able record of performance. wholly inadequate to meet the needs of tal Disaster Relief Funds from the total paid was $7,808,000,000. an urban population. Almost two years Department of Housing and Urban The total of all paid claims was $12.5 after Hurricane Katrina, the failure of Development (HUD) to assist prop- billion. Research suggests that the Los Angeles is the federal response is still fresh and erty owners whose requests for Small actual value of residential losses was hit with another devastating earth- shocking. Even now, very few Katrina Business Administration (SBA) loans about 70 percent of paid claims. A quake, the situation could be consid- victims have a permanent place to live. or Federal Emergency Management number of factors contributed to the erably bleaker than after the North- Californians need to prepare, not Agency (FEMA) grants were denied. In high payouts: 1) Companies underes- ridge event. Soft-story apartment only for the first 72 hours after the addition, the City worked directly with timated the overall damage and quick- buildings will fail. Lives and homes inevitable event, but for the task of HUD officials on advance allocations ly authorized payments. 2) Insurance will be needlessly lost. Homeowners recovery. of community development block grant rules, particularly the requirement funds targeted toward the acquisition to pay for finishes within the “line of and rehabilitation of damaged multi- sight” of the damage, increased claim family properties, loans to condomin- values. 3) More than 80 percent of ium associations, and special assistance San Fernando Valley homeowners to mobile home parks. While these carried earthquake insurance and special funds were targeted toward most made claims. replacing low-income and multi- After the Northridge experi- family units, the SBA loaned almost ence, insurance companies stopped $2.5 billion to 99,000 homeowners. offering earthquake polices as part of FEMA provided 120,000 individu- regular homeowner insurance, and als and families with temporary rental the state created the California Earth- Bold Leadership in Crisis Management - A Call to Action 260/261 James Lee Witt Reprint of

Carolyn See

A personal reflection after the 1987 magnitude 5.9 Whittier Narrows quake. Kevin Wong Kevin “When Living on the Edge Becomes Stark-Naked Reality” 262/263 Carolyn See

was all the way outside, waiting and even as we pour coffee with trem- in such a wonderfully gracing way: We folks were nuts when they went back for the house to slide down the cliff, bling hands, we can take joy from how are here, only by the most marginal to rebuild their city: “After a warning within the first five seconds; that’s disappointed Mr. Russo must be, sufferance on the crust of the Earth— like that!” Next door, at a macrobi- traveling fast from the third floor. wherever he is today. it shakes, you know, irritably, like a otic learning center, a man in Levi John Espey stayed fast in bed up here dog that has had it with those pesky cutoffs appeared at the top of his in Topanga Canyon, following the fleas, and we’re the fleas. cliff. “Good Morning!” When we tradition of Gertrude Stein’s uncle not the disaster, ever, That’s our human condition out asked him if he felt the quake, he was or dad, who, after sleeping through but how we react. It’s Jackie Kennedy here; that’s our life on the edge. cool. “A little roll or so. Sure woke the Great San Francisco Quake, and bailing out of that convertible, or There is something daring and me up, though!” Uh-huh. on being awakened to hear the news, Cornelia Wallace throwing herself on wonderful about people who choose said something like “this will give us top of her maimed husband. Good to live here, in the face of fire, a bad name in the East,” and then character has nothing to do with it; flood, quake. This is extinction with then we go inside, and we turned over and went back to sleep. it’s destiny, genes, chance, circum- panache and verve; hemispheres away watch Kent and Christopher dive from that stagnant gas that they had in under the desk. The phone begins to The truth is: Life is so boring so much of the time that most Africa or the famines of Ethiopia and ring. The aftershocks have just start- of the time we forget that we are all going to die. An earth- Bangladesh or the sad mudslide in ed, and we scan the horizon for quake reminds us of that in such a wonderfully gracing way. Medellin. Here in Southern Califor- possible fires. Those boys on TV! I’d nia we hang-glide through life—tempt hate to be caught in an elevator with My younger daughter lounged, stance. A man on KNX radio confid- the gods, joke with the gods, make Kent (but then he’d probably feel the stark naked and affable, in the door- ed after the quake that he’d just thrown friends with the gods. Every time we same about me). We talk about pris- way of her bedroom. She always up. And on KNBC television Kent live through one of these, Mr. Russo oners in jails, patients in hospitals, thinks, at these times, of her elemen- Shocknek and Christopher Nance once again is proved wrong, and we all of the places we’d rather not be... tary school teacher, a certain Mr. kept disappearing under their desks, are once again alive. Seventeen years ago my husband Russo, who so lovingly delineated his even as they defended themselves from After the San Francisco quake (a and I divorced. We were both young vision of doomsday—either by blast directorial chastisement that they were friend told us, at 8 a.m. Thursday in enough (comparatively speaking) to or by quake—that every fifth-grader “panicking people.” Topanga Canyon, jauntily smoking think that material things were not left his class a gibbering doomsday The truth is: Life is so boring his seventh cigarette since the earth important. We ended up fighting only idiot. Perfect training, it turned so much of the time that most of the had given its petulant, coquettish about a cat—a ceramic cat with flowers out, because every time the ground time we forget that we are all going to puff), Native Americans were finally on it, bought in southern Mexico for doesn’t open up, it’s very good news, die. An earthquake reminds us of that and completely convinced that white $11. The fight was bitter. Two hours “When Living on the Edge Becomes Stark-Naked Reality” 264/265 Carolyn See Everett Ching Everett

and 45 minutes after the quake, my reason for diving under the desk. ex-husband, remarried and back in (Doesn’t he remember those old the old house here in the canyon, moving pictures of W. C. Fields saun- calls up. We’re all right over here; tering under lights during the Long they’re all right over there. His voice Beach earthquake?) is exuberant. “You never know what “Stark naked” is where art, life and you’re going to do,” he says. “I got idealism meet during these quakes. up, stark naked, grabbed the cat, ran We see what we are and how we act as outside, and stubbed my toe.” we wait for the Big One. It’s better to I’m so glad to hear his voice! Glad live on the edge, to be reminded, to his son and my daughters are fine! crack jokes, to keep in touch, to know Glad he stubbed his toe! Glad he still for sure that we’re still alive. honors that dumb ceramic cat! Glad to see that Kent Shocknek is reduced now to pointing to those overhead lights in the television station as his © Copyright 1987 Los Angeles Times 266/267

David L. Ulin Katherine Siy Katherine Shaken Not Stirred: Earthquakes and the Culture of Erasure 268/269 David L. Ulin

is the meaning forward looking, more interested in en land, “America’s Mediterranean,” the lure of the place had to do with of earthquakes to Southern Califor- the future than in the past. This is a in which, as Charles Dudley Warner the fact that “Southern California was nia? Not as physical, but as metaphysi- region, after all, that is notoriously once put it, “nature seems to work then as remote from the rest of the cal events? How, in other words, does cavalier about its history, even as it with a man, and not against him.” country as a foreign land or island, the physical landscape—its instabil- exists in history’s thrall. Does anyone and people will believe anything, as ity, it constant mutability—inform remember the McNamara brothers, [Stewart Edward] White observed of the culture that’s been built here, the Caryl Chessman, the collapse of the the coming of the land, ‘that is far enough away.’” way people think about this place and, the transcontinental railroad, and indeed, about themselves? This is a What is the value of history the subsequent development of a tricky question, for one of the truisms in a place that could be spur line to Southern California in cliché, of course, is of Southern California life is that wiped clean in an instant? the 1870s, this impression became that California—and particularly natives don’t think about earthquakes— more pronounced. The region’s long Southern California—was a land of at least not in any lasting sense. But if San Francisquito Dam? No, in the history of hypes and booms began as opportunity, where the mistakes of the earthquakes are a part of the landscape phrase of social theorist Norman M. early as the 1880s; by the early 1900s, past could be if not rectified then here, they are also a defining feature Klein, ours is a “history of forget- it was, in the words of Carey McWil- disregarded, rendered moot. Certain- of the region’s psyche—along with ting,” where more often than not, the liams, “a circus without a tent.” In ly, this was the posture of the tycoons other natural catastrophes. past gets disregarded, overlooked. his landmark 1946 study, Southern who developed Los Angeles and its California, after all, is an ele- And yet, I think, there is a rela- California: An Island on the Land, McWil- environs: Henry Huntington, with his mental setting, a place where nature tionship between these two ideas—the liams underscores the illusory, even streetcars and his palace in San Mari- constantly asserts itself. Here, we forgetting and the elemental nature contradictory, nature of the process: no; William Mulholland, who ran the don’t so much master the natu- of the landscape, the elisions that “There was little in Southern Cali- Metropolitan Water District like a ral world as we coexist uneasily with define the psyche of the state. Partly, fornia, in the way of tangible assets, private fiefdom; and the syndicate of it, waiting for the next fire, flood, it’s a matter of geography, of history: to justify this boom. The agricultural leading citizens (including Hunting- mudslide, drought, or earthquake with all its seekers and transplants, resources of the region were virtually ton, E. H. Harriman and Harrison to destabilize our lives. And yet, this California has always been “west of untapped and undeveloped. Little Gray Otis) who in 1904, equipped uneasy coexistence manifests unex- the west,” in Mark Twain’s famous irrigation was practiced and suitable with secret knowledge of a plan to irri- pectedly, in an elusive mix of denial phrase. Indeed, it’s only in the 1840s, methods of soil cultivation had yet to gate the arid San Fernando Valley with and bravado, of fatalism and a devil- with the Mexican-American War and be evolved. The ranchos were being water from the Owens River, bought may-care optimism that is most the Gold Rush, that California enters broken up, but no one knew just what up huge swaths of the Valley at cheap notable for being almost frantically the vernacular of America, as a gold- to do with the land.” Nonetheless, prices, in a deal that ultimately yielded Shaken Not Stirred: Earthquakes and the Culture of Erasure 270/271 David L. Ulin

profits of more than $100 million. costumes people could step into, the image of the city lingers as a place is “to accept, consciously or uncon- The city they built was a modern one, ready-made and in some fundamen- where history, personal or otherwise, sciously, a deeply mechanistic view of streamlined and speed-obsessed, a tal way, disposable, much like South- becomes irrelevant in the face of an human nature,” in which we have no landscape of light and celluloid built ern California was perceived to be. eternal present tense. choice but to find a way to frame, or on stolen water and expansive free- Buildings came and went, landmarks Among detractors of California— at least reckon with, the larger forces ways, with no real understanding of were uprooted—why be bound by the and particularly Los Angeles—this that may emerge at any moment to —or regard for—the past. past in a land with its eye on nothing remains a central issue, a reason not disrupt our lives. Of course, it’s easy to hang the but the here and now? to take the landscape seriously. And psyche of Southern California on the yet, in actuality, the opposite is true. tycoons, to suggest that their peculiar There’s a reason such a culture grew this has become form of economic manifest destiny many, such modernity up in California, and it’s not only part of the ethos of Southern Califor- is responsible for making the region was an empty promise. “Dust and old distance. There’s a reason people nia is not without its irony, since what it is. But these civic leaders were buildings and old people sitting at came here, that they became here; initially, it was the 1906 San Francisco only the most prominent purveyors windows,” John Fante writes in his there’s an influence of place. It takes earthquake that offered Californians of an entire cultural identity, the idea 1939 novel Ask the Dust,“old people a certain type of person to uproot, to such a creation myth, the moment that this was a place where we could tottering out of doors, old people move to a new territory, undefined when the contemporary ideal of the live as we saw fit, unrestricted by moving painfully along the dark street. and sprawling, to reconstruct their state began to emerge. Partly, that’s either physical or emotional limita- The old folk from Indiana and Iowa lives. It requires a mix of desperation because this was the first truly modern tions of any kind. Look at population and Illinois, from Boston and Kansas and adventurism, which in many ways disaster, photographed and recorded figures for Southern California over City and Des Moines, they sold their are still the defining cultural compo- by man-in-the-street technology, the the course of the twentieth century homes and their stores, and they came nents of the place. Here, we come subject of newsreels and re-enact- and you can see the result of such here by train and by automobile to the back to the instability of the land- ments, a source of public spectacle. a myth writ large. Vast migrations land of sunshine, to die in the sun, scape, the way uncertainty is seeded Yet even more, what lingers is the are part of the state’s culture, of its with just enough money to live until into everything. It adds an urgency to mythos of reconstruction, of disaster heritage—and nowhere more than in the sun killed them, tore themselves how we operate, which goes beyond as a source of opportunity, which has greater Los Angeles, where the desire out by the roots in their last days, seismic activity into the rawness of the become perhaps the most compelling to reinvent oneself, to live outside deserted the smug prosperity of land itself. This is the underside to metaphor of how California views history was, in some ways, a primary Kansas City and Chicago and Peoria California’s Edenic fantasies, the idea itself. For San Francisco, this was appeal. Religious cults, Hollywood, to find a place in the sun.” Yet even in that apocalypse is right at hand. To embodied by the 1915 Pan-Pacific the endless suburban sprawl—all were the face of such expansive emptiness, live here, Joan Didion has suggested, Exhibition, during which, nine years Shaken Not Stirred: Earthquakes and the Culture of Erasure 272/273 David L. Ulin

after the earthquake, the newly rede- has become part of our psychology, notion that the city was destroyed not how we live. It’s not quite denial, but veloped city put itself on display. In the reason we knock down landmark by seismicity but by fire. Such an idea more a studied indifference, a posture Southern California, it manifests in structures in order to build generic came into play immediately, part of an of taking things as they come. “The other ways, from the renovated Angel (and entirely disposable) mini-malls, effort to soften the disaster, to rede- particular story that San Francisco Stadium in Anaheim, in which damage the reason we put our pasts, over very fine it as less exotic, an event everyone told itself about the earthquake and from the 1994 Northridge earthquake histories, aside to move ahead. This is might understand. In an editorial fire,” Wyatt notes, “was of a city coolly was literally redesigned out of exis- the subterranean influence of disas- published two days after the temblor, eyeing its own destruction, a city tence, to a community like Malibu, ter, of earthquakes: If you live in a the Los Angeles Times argued that “all the acting ‘casual,’ as Kathryn Hulme which burns and is rebuilt with the place where the earth can erase every- earthquakes that had been experienced describes a man blowing drifting char regularity of the tides. “Malibu,” Mike thing in the tumult of an instant, why on the Pacific Coast, up to the time of from his hands, ‘casual when you knew Davis writes in Ecology of Fear: Los Angeles not do the same yourself? Yes, earth- the San Francisco disaster, caused less he wasn’t feeling so.’” If you extrapo- and the Imagination of Disaster, “is the wild- quakes are mirrors for our deepest loss of life and property than an ordi- late a bit, you can read that attitude fire capital of North America and, trepidations—the Big One, the night- nary tornado or ‘cyclone’ causes in the into the psyche of a state that, facing possibly, the world.” And yet, “wealthy mare at the center of the future, the Middle West.” A parallel narrative, mounting problems of infrastructure, Malibu homeowners benefited … catastrophe every Californian knows meanwhile, presented San Francisco population, immigration, and educa- from an extraordinary range of insur- is coming. (Coming? Overdue.) But as a phoenix rising from the ashes—the tion, has consistently avoided taking ance, landuse, and disaster relief more than that, they are emblematic, very symbol, coincidentally, on the the long view, from Howard Jarvis’ subsidies … [even though] as most markers for the way we overcome. city’s seal. 1978 Proposition 13 campaign to the experts will readily concede, periodic recall election of 2003. firestorms … are inevitable as long as In the end, it all comes back to residential development is tolerated proof of that, let’s the perspective the culture of erasure. What is the in the fire ecology of the Santa look back at San Francisco, at the of history, it’s easy to be cynical, and value of history in a place that could Monicas.” earthquake of 1906. On almost every certainly these interpretations were be wiped clean in an instant? How Here, we have the full expression level, it’s an event that symbolizes our managed manipulations, constructed do we find meaning when the entire of erasure, of forgetting and reinven- own odd interplay with history, the by San Francisco’s business and polit- notion of meaning is rendered rela- tion, the idea that when nature wipes way we bend what happened into a ical leaders, who worried about invest- tive by the shifting landscape in which out homes or stadiums or cities, we metaphor of what we need. First, of ment, money, capital. At the same we live? The constancy of such ques- can simply rebuild them—even as we course, there’s the civic myth, which time, they suggest another set of tions—their appeal to California’s know that the destruction will inevi- was perhaps the most pervasive story to connections, a way of thinking about boosters and detractors—has much tably return. Such a way of thinking emerge from the earthquake, the California that gets at the essence of to do with the legacy of catastrophe as Shaken Not Stirred: Earthquakes and the Culture of Erasure 274/275 David L. Ulin

both physical and sociological event. its own awful purging, as inevitable as To be sure, California has experi- the movement of the plates. Yes, we enced plenty of earthquakes, from the will have to find a way to deal with it, protean upheavals of the 1800s (the to rebuild the city and our lives. For San Francisco temblors of 1865 and all that, though, we are already prim- 1868 and the 1857 Fort Tejon trem- ing ourselves for such an eventuality, or, which remains, with an estimated by developing a culture where history magnitude of 7.8, Southern Califor- is as malleable as the ground on which nia’s largest recorded quake) to more it is built. In such a landscape, what recent, and devastating, disasters like sustains us isn’t so much where we’ve Loma Prieta and Northridge. The been or where we’re going, but rather real issue, though, has less to do with our own sense of living in the moment, the earthquakes than what we make of the idea that this, too, shall pass. them. Yes, Los Angeles is heading for 276/277

Anne Burdick

Anne Burdick is chair of the Graduate Media Design Program at Art Center College of Design. Most recently, she was lead designer and contributing writer for The New Ecology of Things, a transmedia book. Here she talks about the motive of this Sourcebook, to put preparedness on our collective front burner. Ahjung Baik Ahjung Designing the Message 278/279 Anne Burdick

the idea of media design is to gained via our design-driven research seem to come out of a straightforward mately change the kinds of conver- facilitate communication in new and methodology. The goal of this meth- question-and-answer approach. It’s a sations that take place around the unique ways, then The Los Angeles odology is to understand people, and methodology that values play, explo- dinner table. In this case, we hope Earthquake: Get Ready project is a then to communicate with them in ration, subjectivity, and uncertainty. those conversations will lead to real perfect challenge for media design- meaningful ways. For example, when we were research- actions that help them to get and stay ers to undertake. As often noted ing attitudes toward the environment prepared for a major earthquake. within these pages, a major problem in the future, we gave the families in in achieving public preparedness part of this research we will our study a set of globes that were for an earthquake that we all know is be looking at the tools of commu- painted white and a copy of The New insight into the coming has been a lack of effective, nication, both those available now York Times. We asked, If the earth could habits, practices, and values of our memorable communication. Many and those envisioned for tomorrow. speak, what would it say? The collages study participants, we then set about experts have found that the impor- And whereas communication design- created by the parents and the kids finding the points within the larger tance of being prepared is a fleeting ers have historically crafted one-way gave us the kind of raw material we’re communications landscape where all concept to most Southern Califor- messages—with interaction limited to best at working with, which is visu- these things come together. These are nians, and to the media that serve reading, listening, or viewing—today, al material, rich with allusion and the unique entry points, the unex- them. A quake occurs, and suddenly we are creating and anticipating metaphor. The results allowed us to pected ways of connecting with people people are interested in what they communication tools that people can see the world through their eyes. in a form that they are really open to. should do to be ready the next time. engage with which can help to make This human-centered research There are so many communications But after a few weeks go by, the the information relevant to their gives us an unguarded look into forums now, with niche communities urgency and gravity of preparedness lives. But whatever tools are used to people’s values. It is open-ended, and an array of information flows, once again vanishes. convey the message of preparedness, and decidedly qualitative—as attested that tapping into those that already Therein lay the challenge for the the content has to be presented in a to by the many social scientists and exist in order to disseminate our design researchers in Art Center’s way that is going to connect and stick psychologists who share our interest earthquake message would not only be Graduate Media Design Program: to with the audience. in this work. The method helps us economical, it might insure that the put preparedness on our collective In order to develop a message figure out how we can best reach the message is heard. Yet our knowledge front burner, and help keep it there that resonates, we conduct research people in our studies; how we can and our thinking about future inter- through the inevitable periods of seis- using what we call “cultural probes.” incorporate this important informa- active technologies makes us look mic quiet. How we hope to succeed These are creative ways to extract the tion into their habits and daily prac- differently at what exists right now, so where traditional media strategies more ineffable feelings from the tices; how we can inspire and engage that we are in effect taking a new look have thus far failed is through insight people we study—the things that never a population; and how we can ulti- at old media. We’re constantly work- Designing the Message 280/281 Anne Burdick

ing to better understand how people engage with new forms of informa- tion, narratives, and entertainment.

believe that our unique approach will be key to the successful communication of earthquake pre- paredness information, and can help the residents of Southern California “get ready” for the big one, and for whatever comes after it. Vincent Hui Vincent 282/283

Sean Donahue

Sean Donahue is the director of the Design Research program in the Department of Humanities and Design Sciences, and faculty member of the Media Design graduate program at Art Center College of Design. He is also the principal of ResearchCenteredDesign, a Los Angeles-based design practice. Here he describes the process and outcomes of his 2008 research studio. Eric Lin Eric Intervention Design and Preparedness 284/285 Sean Donahue

Valentine (Graphic Design, under- your morning routine—a predictable graduate), Hye Rin Kang (Environ- commute, friendly greetings to and mental Design, undergraduate), and from the same people you see every Ken Huang (Graphic Design alum- day, your regular arrival at work or nus). As our work progressed and the school. Now consider what might need arose, we enlisted the expertise of happen if you suddenly had some- participants ranging from carpenters one else’s routine—an unfamiliar and video editors to interpreters and commute, with new faces and greet- emergency preparedness specialists. ings, and arrival at a different work- Through our process of human- place. When everything changes, you centered design research (see Burdick), are forced to gather new information we intended to gain insight into Donahue Sean on the fly, forced to immerse your- people’s attitudes, perceived knowl- self in another world. And if you pay edge, and general community percep- close attention, you can learn enough tions regarding the issues of earth- along the way to understand what quakes and preparedness. We would makes this new world, and the people use this insight to design a responsive in it, tick. communication strategy that would largest demographic in Los Ange- Phase 1: Introducing In the winter of 2008, as part foster behavior, attitudes, and indi- les as well as issues associated with Ourselves. of The Los Angeles Earthquake: Get vidual and community activity that urban residential living and access to Ready project, I was asked to lead a advanced preparedness efforts. resources. We made it our respon- To introduce our group and the topic studio in the Graduate Media Design sibility to take preparedness guide- of earthquake preparedness to the Program at Art Center that would lines, directives, and resources and community, we conducted a large- explore how a series of design inter- focused on the near- instill them with the unique spirit of scale design intervention in MacAr- ventions might increase earthquake downtown district of Westlake. Being this diverse community in order to thur Park, the social center of West- preparedness for communities in a densely populated, predominantly facilitate communication and incite lake. The intervention event ran for a the Los Angeles area. I was support- Latino community offering a range action. To achieve this, we designed a full day, during which we constructed ed in this 16-week investigation by of social and cultural institutions and multiphase, bottom-up strategy that 10-foot high letters and used them a group of four core designers: Yee economic conditions, it provided could be used as a model for engaging to spell five different words. Built Chan (Graduate Media Design), Vera an ideal opportunity to address the this and other communities. one at a time with each left stand- Intervention Design and Preparedness 286/287 Sean Donahue

congregation space that invited people would see in a store in this communi- Our outreach initiative sought to rest, play, explore, or otherwise ty, the simple idea of where to buy such to get local community leaders and reside in the form. This outcome a key preparedness resource was not residents to take advantage of the provided key opportunities for the readily apparent to them—and, there- dialogue center’s resources. We interview team to make connections fore, not something they were likely held community meetings to share with the community. We invited people to follow up on. So we redesigned knowledge and create neighbor- to share their perspectives with an the kit, repurchasing everything in it hood-specific plans for addressing on-site documentary crew, and were from the local Dollar store. At that preparedness. We invited the director able to distribute information about point, not only was the kit accessible, of MacArthur Park and representa- specific resources to help prepare for it was also familiar—and much more tives from the Los Angeles Depart- and learn about earthquakes. likely to stimulate an active response— ment of Emergency Services to work because local residents shop where through preparedness strategies that these crucial preparedness items are addressed the potential reality of quickly learned that available every day. scenarios in Westlake. ing for 30 minutes, these words, in area residents were both interested in English and Spanish, were intended and knowledgeable about the subject, Phase 2: Starting the to reflect familiar earthquake rhetoric and discovered some of their unique Conversation. engaged with the popu- while piquing the curiosity of passers- concerns. They wanted to under- lace, conducting interviews and host- by. Shake, Shift, Aware, Alerta, and stand how to be prepared relative to This phase relied on the power of ing events, such as open forums and Alto were used as prompts to gener- their world—the unique space that presence, so we rented a retail space daily luncheons. Besides city and ate interest and start conversation with constitutes their community, family, across from MacArthur Park for community emergency management park visitors, passing commuters, and and neighborhood. Yes, they recog- two weeks and transformed it into officials, guests included representa- local residents. nized the elements of our Red Cross a community dialogue center. The tives from the Coalition for Humane The physical construction of the preparedness kit—flashlight, kids toys, space was designed to provide an envi- Immigrant Rights in Los Angeles, the letterforms was important to the inter- gloves, canned food, pocketknife, ronment that facilitated dialogue and Asociacion de Salvadorenos en Los Angeles, vention because it required commu- etc.—but the specific contents (the fostered communication among civic Charles White Elementary, Mission nity activity and teamwork. Before colors, shapes, brands, and language leaders, residents, and service provid- Lirio De Los Valles, Los Angeles Preg- long, kids, families, and residents explaining the products) were not ers, acting as a conduit to identify and nancy Services, L.A. County Office were participating in the construc- familiar to them. Because none of the directly address the unique prepared- of Emergency Management, and tion. Once built, the words became a specific contents looked like what one ness issues of this community. the Institute for Urban Initiatives, Intervention Design and Preparedness 288/289 Sean Donahue

among others. To underscore our time of crisis, but also admitted that focus on real-world post-earthquake they were not prepared to provide preparedness, food was provided something as basic as water in the much as it might be in the aftermath event of a large scale or citywide emer- of an actual emergency: distributed gency. We then designed a formula in generic boxes, and served in a way that helped them quantify the supplies that required the guests to interact they would need to keep on hand, in (and share, in the event of shortages) storage, for such an event. with those around them. The removal of choice and of familiarity with the process of how to acquire one’s meal immersing ourselves in was meant to reflect the confusion the unique community of Westlake, that many relief efforts confront. and exposing residents to the realities they might experience in a post- earthquake relief scenario, we were process allowed us to able to address the resulting emotion- design an environment that facilitated al and social impact of those experi- conversation and simultaneously ences. Unlike the surveys and analysis exposed problems or gaps in the of social scientists that often rely on community support system. When we more abstract information, our learned that the community was more boots-on-the-ground approach likely to turn to a cultural organiza- allowed us to visualize and design tion than to a governmental agency nimble, organic strategies and solu- for support in an emergency, we also tions based on real human feelings discovered that these organizations and actions—the essence of human- were often unprepared to provide centered design. such aid. For example, we met with a number of religious organizations that acknowledged they would be pillars of community support in a 290/291

Dare To Prepare

Earthquake professionals, business and community leaders, emergency managers, and others have organized the Dare to Prepare campaign to raise earthquake awareness and encourage earthquake readiness in Southern California. The main message of the campaign is that if you “Secure Your Space” before our next big earthquake you can protect yourself, your family, and your property. The DareToPrepare.org Web site includes how-to instructions for how to secure your space, along with videos, animations, and other re- sources, including the popular Putting Down Roots in Earthquake Country handbook. The following “Seven Steps To Earthquake Safety” is from this handbook. The Web site includes additional information for each step. Marty Kaplan’s “A River in Egypt,” in collaboration with illustrator Darren Ragle, is conceived in the genre of a graphic novel, and provides

Darren Ragle Darren Marty’s personal take on the challenge of preparedness. The 7 Steps to Earthquake Safety 292/293 Dare To Prepare

1. to complete, but all are relatively Objects on open shelves simple. Most hardware stores and and tabletops: IDENTIFY POTENTIAL HAZARDS IN home centers now carry earthquake YOUR HOME AND BEGIN TO FIX THEM safety straps, fasteners, and adhesives. Collectibles, pottery objects, and lamps can become deadly projectiles. In the kitchen: Use either hook-and-loop fasten- ers on the table and object, or non- Earthquake safety is more than mini- In addition to contents within your Unsecured cabinet doors fly open damaging adhesives such as earthquake mizing damage to buildings. We must living space, also secure items in other during earthquakes, allowing glass- putty, clear quake gel, or microcrystal- also secure the contents of our build- areas, such as your garage, to reduce ware and dishes to crash to the floor. line wax to secure breakables in place. ings to reduce the risk to our lives damage to vehicles or the likelihood Many types of latches are available Move heavy items and breakables to and our pocketbooks. of hazardous material spills. to prevent this: childproof latch- lower shelves. Several people died and thou- There may be simple actions you es, hook-and-eye latches, or posi- sands were injured in the Northridge can do right now that will protect you tive catch latches designed for boats. Hanging objects: earthquake because of unsecured if an earthquake happens tomorrow. Gas appliances should have flexible building contents such as toppling START NOW by moving furniture connectors to reduce the risk of fire. Mirrors, framed pictures, and other bookcases. Many billions of dollars such as bookcases away from beds, Secure refrigerators and other major objects should be hung from closed were lost due to this type of damage. appliances to walls using earthquake hooks so that they can’t bounce off Much of this damage and injury Additional information, appliance straps. the walls. Pictures and mirrors can could have been prevented in advance including how-to instruc- also be secured at their corners with through simple actions to secure tions, is available at: Electronics: earthquake putty. Only soft art such as buildings and contents. www.daretoprepare.org tapestries should be placed over beds Televisions, stereos, computers, or sofas. You should secure anything: sofas, or other places where people microwaves, and other electronics sit or sleep. Move heavy objects to are heavy and costly to replace. They Furniture: 1) heavy enough to hurt you if it falls lower shelves. Then begin to look for can be secured with flexible nylon on you, or; other items in your home that may be straps and buckles for easy removal Secure the tops of all top-heavy furni- 2) fragile and/or expensive enough hazardous in an earthquake. and relocation. ture, such as bookcases and file cabi- to be a significant loss if it falls. Some of the actions recommend- nets, to a wall. Be sure to anchor to ed on this page may take a bit longer the stud, and not just to the drywall. The 7 Steps to Earthquake Safety 294/295 Dare To Prepare

Flexible fasteners such as nylon straps erly braced. Bracing kits are available allow tall objects to sway without fall- to make this process simple. Have a ing over, reducing the strain on the plumber install flexible (corrugat- studs. Loose shelving can also be ed) copper water connectors, if not secured by applying earthquake putty already done. on each corner bracket. In the garage or utility room: Water heater: Items stored in garages and util- Unsecured water heaters often fall ity rooms can fall, causing injuries, over, rupturing rigid water and gas damage, and hazardous spills or connections. If your water heater leaks. They can also block access to does not have two straps around it that vehicles and exits. Move flammable or are screwed into the studs or mason- hazardous materials to lower shelves ry of the wall, then it is not prop- or the floor. The 7 Steps to Earthquake Safety 296/297 Dare To Prepare

2. else in your neighborhood is everyone in the household to trained in first aid and CPR. relay information. CREATE A DISASTER-PREPAREDNESS • Know the location of utility shut • Provide all family members PLAN offs and keep needed tools nearby. with a list of important contact • Make sure you know how to turn phone numbers. off the gas, water, and electricity to • Determine where you might your home. Only turn off the gas if live if your home cannot be Will everyone in your household do • Learn how to protect yourself no you smell or hear leaking gas. occupied after an earthquake the right thing during the violent matter where you are when an • Get training from your local fire or other disaster. shaking of a major earthquake? Before earthquake strikes. department in how to properly use • Know about the earthquake plan the next earthquake, get together with a fire extinguisher. developed by your children’s your family or housemates to plan Plan NOW to respond after • Install smoke alarms and test them school or day care. Keep your now what each person will do before, an earthquake: monthly. Change the battery children’s school emergency during, and after. once a year, or when the alarm release card current. Once the earthquake is over, we • Keep shoes and a working flashlight emits a “chirping” sound (low • Keep copies of essential docu- will have to live with the risk of fire, next to each bed. battery signal). ments, such as identification, the potential lack of utilities and basic • Teach everyone in your house • Check with your city or county to see insurance policies, and financial services, and the certainty of after- hold to use emergency whistles if there is a Community Emergency records, in a secure, waterproof shocks. By planning now, you will be and/or to knock three times Response Team (CERT) in your container, and keep with your ready. This plan will also be useful repeatedly if trapped. Rescuers area. If not, ask how to start one. disaster supplies kits. Include for other emergencies. searching collapsed buildings will a household inventory (a list be listening for sounds. Plan NOW to communicate and photos or video of your Plan NOW to be safe during • Identify the needs of household and recover after an belongings). an earthquake: members and neighbors with earthquake: special requirements or situations, Have occasional earthquake “drills” • Practice “drop, cover, and hold such as use of a wheelchair, walking • Select a safe place outside of your to practice your plan. Share your on.” (See Step 5) aids, special diets, or medication. home to meet your family or house- plan with people who take care of • Identify safe spots in every • Take a Red Cross first aid and mates after the shaking stops. your children, pets, or home. room, such as under sturdy desks cardiopulmonary resuscitation • Designate an out-of-area contact and tables. (CPR) training course. Learn who person who can be called by 298/299

3. CREATE DISASTER SUPPLIES KITS

Personal disaster • First aid kit and handbook supplies kits • Examination gloves (non-latex) • Dust mask Everyone should have personal disas- • Spare eyeglasses or contact lenses ter supplies kits. Keep them where and cleaning solution you spend most of your time, so they • Whistle (to alert rescuers to can be reached even if your build- your location) ing is badly damaged. The kits will be • Sturdy shoes useful for many emergencies. • Emergency cash • Road maps Keep one kit in your home, another • Bottled water in your car, and a third kit at work. • List of emergency out-of-area Backpacks or other small bags are contact phone numbers best for your disaster supplies kits • Snack foods, high in water so you can take them with you if you and calories evacuate. Include at least the follow- • Working flashlight with extra ing items: batteries and light bulbs, or light sticks • Medications, prescription list, • Personal hygiene supplies copies of medical cards, doctor’s • Comfort items such as games, name and contact information crayons, writing materials, • Medical consent forms teddy bears for dependents The 7 Steps to Earthquake Safety 300/301 Dare To Prepare

• Toiletries and special provisions • Wrenches to turn off gas and you need for yourself and others water supplies in your family including elderly, • Work gloves and protective goggles disabled, small children, • Heavy duty plastic bags for and animals. waste, and to serve as tarps, rain • Copies of personal identification ponchos, and other uses (drivers license, work ID card, etc.) • Portable radio with extra batteries • Additional flashlights or Household disaster light sticks supplies kit • Drinking water (minimum one gallon per person, per day) Electrical, water, transportation, and • Canned and packaged foods other vital systems can be disrupted for several days after a large earth- Use and replace perishable items like quake. Emergency response agencies water, food, medications, first aid and hospitals could be overwhelmed items, and batteries on a yearly basis. and unable to provide you with immediate assistance. Providing first aid and having supplies will save lives, will make life more comfortable, and will help you cope after the next earthquake. In addition to your personal disaster supplies kits, store a house- hold disaster supplies kit in an easily accessible location (in a large water- tight container that can be easily moved), with a three-day to one-week supply of the following items: The 7 Steps to Earthquake Safety 302/303 Dare To Prepare

4. IDENTIFY YOUR BUILDING’S POTENTIAL WEAKNESSES AND BEGIN TO FIX THEM

Buildings are designed to withstand consult a contractor or engineer the downward pull of gravity, yet earth- about replacing it with a continuous quakes shake a building in all direc- perimeter foundation. Look for bolts tions—up and down, but most of all, in the mudsills. They should be no sideways. There are several common more than 1.8 meters (6 feet) apart issues that can limit a building’s ability in a single story and 1.2 meters (4 to withstand this sideways shaking. feet) apart in a multistory building. Adding bolts to unsecured houses Common building problems is one of the most important steps toward earthquake safety. This can be Most houses are not as safe as they done by a contractor or by someone could be. The following presents skilled at home maintenance. some common structural problems and how to recognize them. Once you Unbraced cripple walls. determine if your building has one Homes with a crawl space should have or more of these problems, priori- panels of plywood connecting the tize how and when to fix them, and studs of the short “cripple” walls. You get started. or a contractor can strengthen the cripple walls relatively inexpensively. Inadequate foundations. Soft first stories. Look for larger Look under your house at your foun- openings in the lower floor, such dation. If the foundation is damaged as a garage door or a hillside house or built in the “pier and post” style, built on stilts. Consult a profession- The 7 Steps to Earthquake Safety 304/305 Dare To Prepare

al to determine if your building is can cause expensive damage but less adequately braced. loss of life. • Objects attached to the sides of Unreinforced masonry. buildings, such as staircases, balco- All masonry (brick or block walls) nies, and decorations, can break off should be reinforced. Some commu- in earthquakes. nities have a program for retrofit- ting buildings made of unreinforced Ask the landlord these questions: masonry. If your house has masonry as a structural element consult a struc- • What retrofitting has been done on tural engineer to find what can be this building? done. Inadequately braced chimneys • Have the water heaters been are a more common problem. Consult strapped to the wall studs? a professional to determine if your • Can I secure furniture to the walls? chimney is safe. If you live in a mobile home... For those who rent Look under your home. If you only see As a renter, you have less control over a metal or wood “skirt” on the outside the structural integrity of your build- with concrete blocks or steel tripods ing, but you do control which apart- or jacks supporting your home, you ment or house you rent: need to have an “engineered tie-down system” or an “earthquake-resistant • Structures made of unreinforced bracing system” (ERBS) installed. An brick or block walls can collapse and ERBS should have a label on the brac- cause great loss of life. ing that says, “Complies with the Cali- • Apartment buildings with “tuck- fornia Administrative Code, Title 25, under” parking space openings can Chapter 2, Article 7.5.” also collapse. • Foundation and cripple wall failures The 7 Steps to Earthquake Safety 306/307 Dare To Prepare

Outdoors: 30 meters (100 feet) above sea level 5. Move to a clear area if you can safely immediately. Don’t wait for offi- PROTECT YOURSELF DURING EARTH- do so; avoid power lines, trees, signs, cials to issue a warning. Walk quickly, buildings, vehicles, and other hazards. rather than drive, to avoid traffic, QUAKE SHAKING: DROP, COVER, AND debris and other hazards. HOLD ON Driving: Pull over to the side of the road, stop, Below a dam: The previous sections have concen- floor against the interior wall and and set the parking brake. Avoid over- Dams can fail during a major earth- trated on getting ready for the next protect your head and neck with your passes, bridges, power lines, signs, and quake. Catastrophic failure is unlike- earthquake. What should you do arms. Avoid exterior walls, windows, other hazards. Stay inside the vehicle ly, but if you live downstream from during and after earthquakes? hanging objects, mirrors, tall furni- until the shaking is over. If a power a dam, you should know flood-zone During earthquakes, drop to the ture, large appliances, and kitchen line falls on the car, stay inside until a information and have prepared an floor, take cover under a sturdy desk cabinets with heavy objects or glass. trained person removes the wire. evacuation plan. or table, and hold on to it firmly. Be Do not go outside! prepared to move with it until the In a stadium or theater: shaking stops. In bed: Stay at your seat and protect your head The area near the exterior walls If you are in bed, hold on and stay and neck with your arms. Don’t try to of a building is the most dangerous there, protecting your head with leave until the shaking is over. Then place to be. Windows, facades and a pillow. You are less likely to be walk out slowly watching for anything architectural details are often the first injured staying where you are. Broken that could fall in the aftershocks. parts of the building to collapse. To glass on the floor has caused injury to stay away from this danger zone, stay those who have rolled to the floor or Near the shore: inside if you are inside and outside if tried to get to doorways. Drop, cover and hold on until the you are outside. shaking stops. Estimate how long the In a high-rise: shaking lasts. If severe shaking lasts If you are... Drop, cover, and hold on. Avoid 20 seconds or more, immediately windows and other hazards. Do not use evacuate to high ground as a tsuna- Indoors: elevators. Do not be surprised if sprin- mi might have been generated by the Drop, cover, and hold on. If you are kler systems or fire alarms activate. earthquake. Move inland 3 kilome- not near a desk or table, drop to the ters (2 miles) or to land that is at least 308/309

6. AFTER THE EARTHQUAKE, CHECK FOR INJURIES AND DAMAGE

First take care of your own situa- Check for injuries: tion. Remember your emergency plans. Aftershocks may cause addi- • Check your first aid kit or the front tional damage or items to fall, so get pages of your telephone book for to a safe location. Take your disaster detailed instructions on first aid supplies kit. measures. If you are trapped by falling items • If a person is bleeding, put direct or a collapse, protect your mouth, pressure on the wound. Use clean nose, and eyes from dust. If you are gauze or cloth, if available. bleeding, put pressure on the wound • If a person is not breathing, admin- and elevate the injured part. Signal ister rescue breathing. for help with your emergency whistle, • If a person has no pulse, begin CPR a cell phone, or knock loudly on solid (cardiopulmonary resuscitation). pieces of the building, three times • Do not move seriously injured every few minutes. Rescue personnel persons unless they are in immediate will be listening for such sounds. danger of further injury. Once you are safe, help others • Cover injured persons with blankets and check for damage. Protect your- or additional clothing to keep them self by wearing sturdy shoes and work warm. gloves, to avoid injury from broken • Get medical help for serious injuries. glass and debris. Also wear a dust • Carefully check children or others mask and eye protection. needing special assistance. The 7 Steps to Earthquake Safety 311/311 Dare To Prepare

Check for damage: • FALLEN ITEMS. Beware of items tumbling off shelves when you open • FIRE. If possible, put out small fires the doors of closets and cupboards. in your home or neighborhood • SPILLS. Use extreme caution. immediately. Call for help, but don’t Clean up any spilled medicines, wait for the fire department. drugs, or other non-toxic substanc- • GAS LEAKS. Shut off the main es. Potentially harmful materials gas valve only if you suspect a leak such as bleach, lye, garden chemi- because of broken pipes or the odor cals, and gasoline or other petro- or sound of leaking natural gas. leum products should be isolated Don’t turn it back on yourself—wait or covered with an absorbent such for the gas company to check for as dirt or cat litter. When in doubt, leaks. The phone book has detailed leave your home. information on this topic. • DAMAGED MASONRY. Stay away • DAMAGED ELECTRICAL from chimneys and walls made WIRING. Shut off power at the main of brick or block. They may be breaker switch if there is any damage weakened and could topple during to your house wiring. aftershocks. Don’t use a fireplace Leave the power off until the damage with a damaged chimney. It could is repaired. start a fire or let poisonous gases • BROKEN LIGHTS AND APPLI- into your home. ANCES. Unplug these as they could start fires when electricity is restored. • DOWNED POWER LINES. If you see downed power lines, consider them energized and stay well away from them. Keep others away from them also. Never touch downed power lines or any objects in contact with them. The 7 Steps to Earthquake Safety 312/313 Dare To Prepare

7. WHEN SAFE, CONTINUE TO FOLLOW YOUR DISASTER- PREPAREDNESS PLAN

Once you have met your and your ers, matches, candles, or grills) or oper- family’s immediate needs after an ate any electrical or mechanical device earthquake, continue to follow the that can create a spark (light switch- plan you prepared in advance. After- es, generators, motor vehicles, etc.). shocks will continue to happen for Never use the following indoors: camp several weeks after major earthquakes. stoves, gas lanterns or heaters, gas or Some may be large enough to cause charcoal grills, or gas generators. These additional damage. Always be ready to can release deadly carbon monoxide or drop, cover, and hold on. be a fire hazard in aftershocks. Your recovery period can take several weeks to months or longer. Be in communication Take the actions listed below to be safe • Turn on your portable or car radio and to minimize the long-term effects for information and safety advisories. of the earthquake on your life. • Place all phones back on their cradles. • Call your out-of-area contact, tell The first days after the them your status, then stay off the earthquake… phone. Emergency responders need to use the phone lines for life-saving Use the information you put together communications. in your disaster plan and the supplies • Check on the condition of you organized in your disaster kits. your neighbors. Until you are sure there are no gas leaks, do not use open flames (light- 314/315

Food and water in your home or return to it after a • If power is off, plan meals to use up few days, you will have a variety of tasks refrigerated and frozen foods first. to accomplish: If you keep the door closed, food in your freezer may be good for a • If your gas was turned off, you will couple of days. need to arrange for the gas company • Listen to your radio for safety to turn it back on. advisories. • If the electricity went off and then • If your water is off or unsafe, you can came back on, check your appli- drink from water heaters, melted ice ances and electronic equipment for cubes, or canned vegetables. Avoid damage. drinking water from swimming pools • If water lines broke, look for water or spas. damage. • Do not eat or drink anything from • Locate and/or replace critical docu- open containers that are near shat- ments that may have been misplaced, tered glass. damaged, or destroyed. • Contact your insurance agent or The first weeks after the company right away to begin your earthquake… claims process. • Contact the Federal Emergency This is a time of transition. Although Management Agency (FEMA) to find aftershocks may continue, you will now out about financial assistance (www. work toward getting your life, your fema.gov/about/process/). home and family, and your routines back in order. Emotional care and Once you have recovered from the recovery are just as important as heal- earthquake, go back to Step 1 and do ing physical injuries and rebuilding a the things you did not do before, or home. Make sure your home is safe to do them more thoroughly. Learn from occupy and not in danger of collapse in what happened during the earthquake aftershocks. If you were able to remain so you will be safer next time. 316/317

Mariana Amatullo

publication repre- gained from this multidisciplinary group sents the summation of three years of of scientists, scholars, and practitio- research, recapturing conversations ners who were fundamental in shaping with and among many extraordinary our early understanding of the topics individuals in scientific and academic of earthquake science, public educa- institutions, government, community and tion, and disaster mitigation. We are nonprofit agencies, as well as leading pleased to acknowledge many of them by corporate circles. We are immensely name and organizational affiliation in the

Everett Ching Everett indebted for the tremendous insight we partial list compiled for the key resourc- Acknowledgements 318/319 Mariana Amatullo

es of this publication. It is important form an indispensable brain trust for public education campaigns to mitigate Lou Chameau. We are also honored to to note that given the vast knowledge The Los Angeles Earthquake: Get Ready earthquake hazards, has earned our include the endorsement of Los Angeles existing in this field, and the number of project. We greatly appreciate the lead- admiration and gratitude as well. Thanks Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa. prominent players who are contribut- ership of this resulting public-private to Thomas Jordan and Mark Benthien for ing to the disciplines we examined, our consortium, which overlaps with many of their close collaboration and for unlock- efforts cannot be qualified as exhaustive, the organizers of The Great Southern ing the outstanding resources of the but rather as a strategic survey that California ShakeOut, and includes the Southern California Earthquake Center collaborations such as this ultimately allowed us to carve out an entry point U.S. Geological Survey, the City of Los at the University of Southern Califor- succeed based on the momentum that for engagement. Angeles, and the Southern California nia, and to the U.S. Geological Survey builds from joining forces with highly Earthquake Center, among others. staff scientist Sue Perry, for allowing competent partners. We are immensely our students a first-hand look at active indebted to James Lee Witt for his invalu- are first greatly indebted faults while auditing summer field trips able support and ongoing contributions to the project’s supporters, without the publica- for SCEC undergraduates. For their to The Los Angeles Earthquake: Get whom The L.A. Earthquake Sourcebook tion’s contributors, Lucile Jones, of the multiple contributions at key junctures of Ready project. One of the most influ- would not have been possible. We extend U.S. Geological Survey, deserves special the project, we would like to acknowledge ential authorities in disaster preven- our profound thanks for the generosity thanks. For many in Southern Califor- Councilman Greig Smith and his Deputy tion and emergency management in the of Jacobs Engineering, AJ Longo and As- nia, Lucy is the voice of seismology. Her District Director John Bwarie. John world, James Lee has championed our sociates, the Mabel and Joseph Peluso many dynamic lectures to our students embraced with tireless enthusiasm every efforts from day one. We feel privileged Foundation, James Lee Witt Associates, and faculty provided us with a privi- aspect of Art Center’s project and kept to include his masterful lessons in an the California Seismic Safety Commis- leged glimpse at her amazing talent for all members of the ShakeOut Steering essay that expands upon his important sion, ProtectingAmerica.org, and the making hard science easily tangible. We Committee on task. In addition to those book, Stronger in the Broken Places. We National Endowment for the Arts. also salute the inspiring advocacy of the mentioned above, a thank you goes to would also like to express our deepest We also owe our foremost thanks to California Seismic Safety Commission’s Monica Buchanan, Larry Collins, Dale gratitude to Barry Scanlon and two each of the seminal authors and preemi- Richard McCarthy and Karen Cogan, Cox, Mona Curry, Jim Goltz, Ken Hudnut, exceptional individuals on James Lee’s nent contributors who lent the informed who took time to inform our students Kate Long, Ines Pierce, Jack Popejoy, team who are close collaborators on the perspectives that provided these about the Commission’s work to reduce Margaret Vinci, and Debbie Weiser. For project, Mark Guilarducci and M. Regi- volumes with such provocative and inter- earthquake hazards statewide. Dennis their inspiring institutional leadership, nald B. Salvador. twining threads of thought. Along with Mileti, whose exemplary scholarship con- we extend our deep appreciation to Jet Thank you to Martin Kaplan for the institutions and organizations they tributed immensely to our understand- Propulsion Laboratory Director Charles his unique wit, and to the wonderful represent, these authoritative experts ing of effective models for successful Elachi, and to Caltech President Jean- Johanna Blakley at the Norman Lear Acknowledgements 320/321 Mariana Amatullo

Center, University of Southern Califor- we appreciate the contributions of the work—add an essential perspective to Edmunds, Wayne Herron, Andrew nia Annenberg School for Communica- following colleagues: Mark Breitenberg, the publication. Kaiser, Melinda Utal-Martinez, Molly Ann tion. Both offered countless contribu- Anne Burdick, Nikolai Cornell, Sean Instrumental in fusing the visual Mroczynski, Palencia Turner and the tions to this project—including vital Donahue, George Falardeau, Iris Gelt, and written components of this intri- remarkable Andrea Van De Kamp, for conversations with and connections to Jered Gold, Tanja Diezmann, Nik Haffer- cate puzzle were a handful of colleagues their diligent efforts in helping secure their exceptional faculty. Marty’s at- maas, Rich Haluschak, Christine Hanson, with whom I am fortunate to work the funding streams that have made it tentive read of the initial manuscript Steven Heller, Michelle Katz, Steven Kim, closely on a daily basis. Erica Clark, a possible to produce. resulted in his proposing the idea of a David Mocarski, Steven Sieler, Vanessa true mentor, provided wise counsel and cunning Q&A that, thanks to his close Silverman, Sohini Sinha, and Chuck encouragement from the inception of collaboration with illustrator Darren Spangler. this undertaking; her erudite reading of L.A. Earthquake Ragle, stands like a chapter of a graphic Conceived as a “visual” source this manuscript has undoubtedly made Sourcebook would not exist without the novel, revealing many a reader’s con- book, this publication is the result of an it a better publication. Elisa Ruffino creative genius of Stefan Sagmeister, flicting feelings about preparedness, essential collaboration among a team of managed every aspect of three studios one of the most important and esteemed apathy, and denial. exceptional designers and illustrators that developed media and messaging for graphic designers working today. Beyond from and beyond the Art Center commu- the project, interfacing with students, his talent and intellect, we valued the nity. We commend Ann Field for structur- alumni, faculty, and the editorial team to precision, humility, and ease he brings project has relied ing a studio with the outstanding faculty ensure that the flow of work and deliv- to everything he touches. In addition on the talent, hard work and creativity team of Paul Rogers, Clive Piercy, and erables were always in the right hands to gracing this publication with his of many people at Art Center College of Jason Holley, along with inspired guest at the right time. Her contributions were exquisite skill, Stefan also conceived the Design. We extend our gratitude to the critiques of the formidable Christoph instrumental and touched every aspect overall signature identity of the project. College’s department chairs for their Neimann. The multidisciplinary student of the project. Amy Masgai (Illustration We are grateful for Stefan’s participa- educational leadership and belief in the team they led wholeheartedly embraced Department) and Linda Graybael (Inter- tion, and would also like to acknowledge enriching pedagogical model presented the challenging task of creating fresh national Initiatives), as well as Sheila his associates, Matthias Ernstberger by the project. To the board of trustees, interpretations of these topics. Their Low and Lindsay Rapport, from the and Joe Shouldice, for their dedication staff, alumni, faculty, and students, we singular contributions are a source President’s office, were key contributors and hard work. say thank you for generously engaging of delight and provoke lasting reflec- as well. Very special thanks are also due Finally this publication was shaped with us at critical stages throughout tion. The master illustration essays by to Dana Hutt, for dedicating consider- by a stellar and dedicated editorial our work. Special thanks go to project Ann Field, Paul Rogers and Christoph able time and writing to this publication, team. Aileen Farnan Antonier, Judith researchers Ann Marie Polsenberg Neimann are charged with emotional and to the Art Center Development team, Lewis, and David Ulin each brought their Thomas and Hannah Huang. In addition, impact and—along with the student Clyde Derrick, Karen Germaine, Charles individual talent to the pieces that they Acknowledgements 322/323 Mariana Amatullo

contributed. The compelling and rich belief in the creative community’s ability assembly of profiles, interviews, essays, to lead the way toward positive change and narratives are an impressive testa- across society—has been of paramount ment to their collective and hard work. inspiration to us all. Among them, Judith took up the challenge of weaving all of the voices presented Mariana Amatullo with eloquent and thought-provoking Vice President, introductions that gave us the gift of a International Initiatives masterful whole, and to her we are espe- Director, Designmatters cially grateful. Guiding all of us was our Director, The Los Angeles managing editor, Gloria Gerace, the true Earthquake: Get Ready Project day-to-day force behind this publication. Art Center College of Design Gloria, working with the incomparable Alex Carswell, orchestrated a seamless June 2008 working process that essentially enabled the achievement of our collective vision. To her we extend our heartfelt thanks.

Los Angeles Earth- quake: Get Ready project is a col- laborative undertaking of enormous proportions that Art Center led thanks to the unique vision of College President Richard Koshalek. It has been my great joy and privilege to share with Richard the task of bringing to fruition this pub- lication, one of three main components of this multifaceted project. Richard’s contagious optimism—and his guiding Acknowledgements 324/325

CONTRIBUTORS

Mark Benthien, Director of Communications, Sean Donahue, Director of the Design Thomas H. Jordan, Director, Southern M. Reginald B. Salvator, Program Specialist, Southern California Earthquake Center Research Program in the Department of California Earthquake Center, University of James Lee Witt Associates Humanities and Design Sciences, and faculty Southern California Richard Bernkopf, U.S. Geological Survey, member of the Media Design Program, Art Ellis M. Stanley, Sr., former General Western Geographic Science Center Center College of Design Martin Kaplan, Director of the Norman Lear Manager of the City of Los Angeles Emergency Research Projects Center at Annenberg School for Communication, Preparedness Department, currently Director Charles Elachi, Director of the Jet University of Southern California of western emergency management services Anne Burdick, Chair, Media Design Program, Propulsion Laboratory; Vice President of the for Dewberry LLC Art Center College of Design California Institute of Technology Herman B. “Dutch” Leonard, Baker Pro- fessor of Public Management at the Kennedy Kathleen Tierney, Director, National Linda B. Bourque, Professor, Department of Mark Ghilarducci, Vice President and School and the Snider Professor of Business Hazards Center Community Health Sciences at the School of Director of the Western States Regional Office, Administration at Harvard Business School, Public Health, University of California, James Lee Witt Associates Harvard University Susan Tubbesing, Executive Director, Los Angeles Earthquake Engineering Research Institute Susan Hough, Scientist-in-Charge, Pasadena Richard McCarthy, Director, California Jean-Lou Chameau, President, California Office, U.S. Geological Survey, California Seismic Safety Commission David Ulin, Author; Book Editor of the Institute of Technology. Los Angeles Times Arnold M. Howitt, Executive Director of Thom Mayne, Founder and Principal, Mary Comerio, Professor and Chair, De- the Taubman Center for State and Local Morphosis James Lee Witt, Chief Executive Officer, partment of Architecture at the University of Government at the John F. Kennedy School James Lee Witt Associates California, Berkeley of Government, Harvard University. Dennis S. Mileti, Professor Emeritus, University of Colorado at Boulder; Vice Chair Anne M. Wein, U.S. Geological Survey, Michael Dear, Professor, Department Paul Jennings, Professor Emeritus, of California’s Alfred E. Alquist Seismic Safety Western Geographic Science Center of Geography at the University of California Institute of Technology Commission Research Projects Southern California. Lucile M. Jones, Chief Scientist for the U.S. Shelly Perluss, President, Cal-Quake Andrea Donnellan, Geophysicist, Space Geological Survey Multi-Hazards Demonstration Construction Division at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory; Project in Southern California Research Professor at the University of Southern California Acknowledgements 326/327

Contributors

EDITORIAL TEAM Anne Burdick Vanessa Silberman Alex Figueroa Students: Aileen Farnan Antonier Clyde Derrick Sohini Sinha Eugenia Garcia Yee Chan Alex Carswell Tanja Diezmann Chuck Spangler Tracy Gilbert Ken Huang Gloria Gerace Sean Donahue Palencia Turner Matthew Hendon Hye Rin Kang Judith Lewis Charles Edmunds Melinda Utal-Martinez Andrew Holder Vera Valentine David Ulin George Falardeau Andrea Van De Kamp Vincent Hui Ann Field Eric Lin Summer 2008 VISUAL ARTISTS Iris Gelt Summer 2007 Ramon Lopez Graphic Design Studio The Ann Field Studio - Karen Germaine Illustration Studio Paul McCreery Chair: (concept: Ann Field, Jered Gold Chair: Saejean Oh Nik Hafermaas, photography: Ron Slenzak, Nik Hafermaas Ann Field, Illustration John-Everette Perry Graphic Design props: Carol Kono-Noble, Rich Haluschak Brenna Pribadi digital manipulation: Christine Hanson Faculty: Miguel Rios-Belden Faculty: Christiane Holzheid) Steven Heller Jason Holley Katherine Siy Tanja Diezman Christoph Niemann Wayne Herron Christoph Niemann Sarah Stephens Darren Ragle Jason Holley Clive Piercy Joshua Tetreault Students: Paul Rogers Dana Hutt Paul Rogers Brian Thomas Ji Won Chang Andrew Kaiser Stefan Sagmeister Hsing Ling Tsai Lu Chen INTERnational Michelle Katz Anthony Van Groningen Ryan D’orazi initiatives / Dennis Keeley Students: Sarah Williamson Ira Pietojo DESIGNMATTERS AT Steven Kim Ahjung Baik Kevin Wong Sze Wan ART CENTER STAFF Sheila Low Sung-Hae Baik Erica Clark Amy Masgai Takashi Baker Spring 2008 Graduate Linda Graybael David Mocarski Ji Youn Chang Media Design Studio Hannah Huang Molly Ann Mroczynski Everett Ching Chair: Elisa Ruffino Clive Piercy Sul-Young Cho Anne Burdick, Lindsay Rapport Yunjung Cho Graduate Media Design ART CENTER Paul Rogers Chieh Ni Chu CONTRIBUTING STAFF Elena Salij Michelle Constantine Faculty: Mark Breitenberg Steven Sieler Clifford Elbl Sean Donahue Acknowledgements 328/329

Participants

In the research phase, 2006-2007, Johanna Blakley Jean-Lou Chameau Diane E. Davis of The Los Angeles Earthquake: Get Deputy Director President Associate Dean, Ready project, Richard Koshalek and I met Norman Lear Center California Institute of Technology (Caltech) Professor of Political Sociology with a host of individuals who were experts Annenberg School for Communication Pasadena, California Department of Urban Studies and Planning in various fields of science, emergency University of Southern California (USC) School of Architecture and Planning management, and disaster preparedness. Los Angeles, California Karen Cogan Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) We thank all those who contributed their Executive Assistant Cambridge, Massachusetts time, ideas, and expertise. Linda B. Bourque California Seismic Safety Commission –Mariana Amatullo Professor of Community Health Sciences, Sacramento, California Lennette Dease Associate Director of Center for Public Client Executive Health and Disasters, Associate Director Edward T. Collins James Lee Witt Associates Sandra J. Ball-Rokeach of Southern California Injury Prevention Managing Counsel Washington, D.C. Associate Dean, Professor of Commu- Research Center The Allstate Corporation nication and Sociology, Director of the School of Public Health Northbrook, Illinois Charles Elachi Communication Technology and Community University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) President Program Los Angeles, California Mary C. Comerio Jet Propulsion Lab (JPL) Annenberg School for Communication Chair California Institute of Technology (Caltech) University of Southern California (USC) Sálvano Briceño Department of Architecture Pasadena, California Los Angeles, California Director University of California, Berkeley United Nations International Strategy for Berkeley, California Mark Ghilarducci Mark Benthien Disaster Reduction (UN/ISDR) Vice President, Western Region Director for Communication, Geneva, Switzerland Dale A. Cox James Lee Witt Associates Education, and Outreach Western Region Publishing Manager Sacramento, California Southern California Earthquake Peggy L. Brutsche United States Geological Survey Center (SCEC) Chief Operating Officer Sacramento, California Eloise Gilland Los Angeles, California American Red Cross, Editorial and Publications Manager Greater Long Beach Chapter Earthquake Engineering Research Long Beach, California Institute (EERI) Oakland, California Acknowledgements 330/331

Participants

James D. Goltz Thomas H. Heaton Thomas H. Jordan Nanci Kramer Program Manager of Earthquake Professor of Engineering Seismology Director Director and Tsunami Program Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences Southern California Earthquake Center Consumer Education and Mitigation Programs California Governor’s Office of Emergency California Institute of Technology (Caltech) (SCEC) California Earthquake Authority (CEA) Services (OES) Pasadena, California Los Angeles, California Sacramento, California Mather, California Arnold Howitt Martin Kaplan Robin Kramer Rebekah A. Green Executive Director Director Chief of Staff Postdoctoral Research Fellow Taubman Center for State and Norman Lear Center Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa’s Office Center for Hazards and Risk Research Local Government Annenberg School for Communication City of Los Angeles The Earth Institute John F. Kennedy School of Government University of Southern California (USC) Los Angeles, California Columbia University Harvard University Los Angeles, California Palisades, New York Cambridge, Massachusetts Reed Kroloff Michael H. Kelly Former Dean Robert M. Greenberg Paul Jennings Manager Tulane School of Architecture Chairman, CEO, Professor Emeritus of Civil Engineering and California Government Relations New Orleans, Louisiana Global Chief Creative Officer Applied Mechanics The Boeing Company R/GA Digital Studios Engineering and Applied Science Seal Beach, California Howard Kunreuther New York, New York California Institute of Technology (Caltech) Co-Director, Ceclia Yen Koo Professor of Pasadena, California Asim Ijaz Khwaja Decision Sciences and Business and Public Marjorie Greene Associate Professor of Public Policy Policy Risk Management and Decision Special Projects Manager, Lucile M. Jones John F. Kennedy School of Government Processes Center Learning From Earthquakes Scientist-in-charge Harvard University Wharton School Earthquake Engineering Research U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Cambridge, Massachusetts University of Pennsylvania Institute (EERI) Pasadena, California Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Oakland, California Elise Kim Executive Director 911 For Kids Westminster, California Acknowledgements 332/333

Participants

Herman B. “Dutch” Leonard Leonard Marcus Richard K. Miller Robert W. Porter George F. Baker Jr. Professor of Associate Director of the Center for Public President Executive Director of ProtectingAmerica.org Public Management Health Preparedness, Co-Director of the Franklin W. Olin College of Engineering Washington, D.C. John F. Kennedy School of Government National Preparedness Leadership Initiative, Needham, Massachusetts Harvard University Director of the Program for Health Care Henry Renteria Cambridge, Massachusetts Negotiation and Conflict Resolution David A. Mindell Director School of Public Health Director, Dibner Professor of the History of California Governor’s Office of Emergency Art Lerner-Lam Harvard University Engineering and Manufacturing and Services (OES) Director Cambridge, Massachusetts Professor of Engineering Systems Mather, California Center for Hazards and Risk Research Program in Science, Technology and Society The Earth Institute Richard McCarthy Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Steven J. Rottman Columbia University Executive Director Cambridge, Massachusetts Professor of Community Health Sciences, Palisades, New York California Seismic Safety Commission Professor of Emergency Medicine, Director Sacramento, California William J. Mitchell of Center for Public Health and Disasters, Gayle Levy Director, Professor of Architecture and Medical Director for the Center for Outreach Specialist Gary McGavin Media Arts and Sciences Pre-hospital Care Education and Outreach Program Chairman Design Laboratory School of Public Health/David Geffen School Incorporated Research Institutes California Seismic Safety Commission Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) of Medicine for Seismology (IRIS) Sacramento, California Cambridge, Massachusetts University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) Washington, D.C. Los Angeles, California Dennis Mileti Marla Petal Jeffrey D. Lusk Vice Chair Director of Community Mitigation Programs M. Reginald B. Salvador Deputy Operations Section Chief California Seismic Safety Commission Geo Hazards International Program Specialist Federal Emergency Management Agency Sacramento, California Palo Alto, California James Lee Witt Associates (FEMA), Region IX Sacramento, California U.S. Department of Homeland Security Leonard Miller Demosthenes James Peterson Oakland, California Electronics Engineer Former Director of Infrastructure, Barry W. Scanlon The National Institute of Standards and Safety, and Environment Program President Technology (NIST) RAND Corporation James Lee Witt Associates Gaithersburg, Maryland Santa Monica, California Washington, D.C. Acknowledgements 334/335

Participants

Kerry Sieh Kathleen Tierney Margaret Vinci Robert P. Sharp Professor of Geology Director Manager Seismological Laboratory National Hazards Center Seismological Laboratory California Institute of Technology (Caltech) Boulder, Colorado California Institute of Technology (Caltech) Pasadena, California Pasadena, California Jeroen Tromp Ellis M. Stanley, Sr. Director, Eleanor and John R. McMillan James Lee Witt General Manager Professor of Geophysics Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Emergency Preparedness Department Seismological Laboratory James Lee Witt Associates City of Los Angeles California Institute of Technology (Caltech) Washington, D.C. Los Angeles, California Pasadena, California

Alex Steffen Susan K. Tubbesing Executive Editor Executive Director Worldchanging Earthquake Engineering Research Seattle, Washington Institute (EERI) Oakland, California Louise Steinman Director Lawrence Vale Cultural Programs/Special Events Department Head, Professor of Los Angeles Public Library Urban Studies and Planning Los Angeles, California Department of Urban Studies and Planning School of Architecture and Planning Jason Tester Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Research and Design Manager Cambridge, Massachusetts Institute for the Future (IFTF) Palo Alto, California 336/337 Paul McCreery Paul Resources 338/339

Selected Bibliography

Disaster Management Fradkin, Philip. Magnitude 8: Earthquakes Reisner, Marc. A Dangerous Place: Califor- Homeowner’s Guide to Earthquake Safety, and Life along the San Andreas Fault. nia’s Unsettling Fate. Penguin Group, 2004 California Seismic Safety Commission, Comerio, Mary. Disaster Hits Home: New University of California Press, 1999 www.seismic.ca.gov, 2005 Policy for Urban Housing Recover. Ulin, David. Myth of Solid Ground: Earth- University of California Press, 1998 Grotzinger, John; Jordon, Thomas H.; Press, quakes, Prediction, and the Fault Line Commercial Property Owner’s Guide Frank; Seiver, Raymond. Understanding Between Reason and Faith. Penguin to Earthquake Safety, California Flynn, Stephen. The Edge of Disaster: Re- Earth. W.H. Freeman, 2006 Group, 2004 Seismic Safety Commission, building a Resilient Nation. Random House, www.seismic.ca.gov, 2006 2007 Hough, Susan. Earth-shaking Science: What Photography We Know (and Don’t Know) About Earth- Mileti, Dennis S. Disasters by Design: A quakes. Princeton University Press, 2004 Burkhart, David. Earthquake Days: The Reassessment of Natural Hazards in the 1906 Earthquake & Fire in 3-D. Faultline United States. National Academy Press, Hough, Susan. Finding Fault in California. Books, 2005 1999 Mountain Press Publishers, 2004 Collier, Michael. A Land in Motion: Tierney, Kathleen J. Facing the Unexpected: Yeats, Robert S. Living with Earthquakes California’s San Andreas Fault. University Disaster Response and Preparedness in in California: A Survivor’s Guide. Oregon of California Press, 1999 the United States. National Academy Press, State University Press, 2001 2001 Klett, Mark. After the Ruins, 1906-2006: History Rephotographing the San Francisco Witt, James Lee. Stronger in the Broken Earthquake and Fire. University of California Places. Owl Books, 2002 Fradkin, Philip L. The Great Earthquake and Press, 2006 Firestorms of 1906: How San Francisco Earthquake Sciences Nearly Destroyed Itself. University of Cali- Preparedness Guides fornia Press, 2006 Bolt, Bruce. Earthquakes, Fifth Edition. W.H. Jones, Lucile and Benthien, Mark. Freeman, 2003 Hough, Susan. Richter’s Scale: Measure of Putting Down Roots in Earthquake Country an Earthquake, Measure of a Man. Princ- Southern California Earthquake Center, eton University Press, 2007 www.earthquakecountry.info/roots, 2007 Resources 340/341

Selected RESOURCES

This IS a selected list of organizations and insti- Jet Propulsion Laboratory tutions where information on earthquakes and disaster jpl.nasa.gov preparedness can be found on their Web sites. Los Angeles County Office of Emergency Management lacoa.org American Red Cross redcross.org Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology iris.edu California Earthquake Authority earthquakeauthority.com National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program nehrp.gov Caltech Seismological Laboratory seismolab.caltech.edu National Hazards Center colorado.edu/hazards Earthquake Country Alliance earthquakecountry.info National Science Foundation nsf.gov Earthquake Engineering Research Institute eeri.org Protecting America protectingamerica.org Federal Emergency Management Agency fema.gov Southern California Earthquake Commission scec.org The Great Southern California ShakeOut shakeout.org U.S. Geological Survey usgs.gov Governor’s Office of Emergency Services oes.ca.gov Western States Seismic Policy Council wspc.org A Personal Word of Tribute

As I look back at the many acclaimed, dedicated, and creative contributors who brought this important project to fruition, I cannot help but reflect on how much I have benefited from the advice and guidance of Martin Friedman. Without a doubt one of the most learned and sophisticated leaders in art and culture today, his expansive worldview and insistence on pursuing one’s own voice and instincts has been, and continues to be, an immeasurable inspiration throughout my life and career.

—Richard Koshalek