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APC WTC Thesis V8 090724 A Real Options Case Study: The Valuation of Flexibility in the World Trade Center Redevelopment by Alberto P. Cailao B.S. Civil Engineering, 2001 Wentworth Institute of Technology Submitted to the Center for Real Estate in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Real Estate Development at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology September 2009 ©2009 Alberto P. Cailao All rights reserved. The author hereby grants MIT permission to reproduce and distribute publicly paper and electronic copies of this thesis document in whole or in part in any medium now known or hereafter created. Signature of Author________________________________________________________________________ Center for Real Estate July 24, 2009 Certified by_______________________________________________________________________________ David Geltner Professor of Real Estate Finance, Department of Urban Studies and Planning Thesis Supervisor Accepted by_____________________________________________________________________________ Brian A. Ciochetti Chairman, Interdepartmental Degree Program in Real Estate Development A Real Options Case Study: The Valuation of Flexibility in the World Trade Center Redevelopment by Alberto P. Cailao Submitted to the Center for Real Estate on July 24, 2009 in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Real Estate Development Abstract This thesis will apply the past research and methodologies of Real Options to Tower 2 and Tower 3 of the World Trade Center redevelopment project in New York, NY. The qualitative component of the thesis investigates the history behind the stalled development of Towers 2 and 3 and examines a potential contingency that could have mitigated the market risk. The quantitative component builds upon that story and creates a hypothetical Real Options case as a framework for applying and valuing building use flexibility in a large-scale, politically charged, real estate development project. Through this demonstration, it is observed that applying Real Options “in” the World Trade Center Towers 2 and 3 projects minimizes losses in weaker markets and maximizes gains in stronger markets. Thesis Supervisor: David Geltner Title: Professor of Real Estate Finance 2 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I would like to sincerely thank Professor David Geltner his guidance, insight, and patience throughout the development of this thesis. His enthusiasm and dedication to instructing real estate finance is one of the main reasons I chose to pursue MIT’s Center for Real Estate MSRED program. It was an honor to be his advisee. Michel-Alexandre Cardin was essential to thesis. I genuinely thank him for introducing me to the Monte Carlo in his fall lecture, which interested me in pursuing this thesis. His extensive knowledge of Real Options, structured thinking and wisdom truly help me shape my thesis. I would like to thank Professor Dennis Frenchman for his contagious passion for design, support, and creative suggestions. I would like to give special thanks Rob Martinson who made me feel like I had a thesis partner throughout the thesis semester. I’d also like to thank Jason Foster and Bryan Lee for sharing their knowledge and research of the Monte Carlo. I would like to give a special shout out to Mike Tilford, Kunal Wadhwani, and Ricardo Solorzano for making the late nights at the CRE productively entertaining. To all my other classmates: Thank you for your support, laughs, and long lasting friendships. It’s been a memorable and unforgettable year. To my family: Even though you are all halfway around the world, your support, encouragement, and love has never made me feel alone. Thank you. MK. 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS Acknowledgments ................................................................................................................................... 3 Table of Contents...................................................................................................................................... 4 Table of Figures ......................................................................................................................................... 6 Table of Tables .......................................................................................................................................... 7 CHAPTER 1 - Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 8 1.1 Background and Objective ........................................................................................................... 8 1.2 Overview of Methodology and Hypothesis................................................................................ 11 1.3 Literature Review Summary.......................................................................................................... 12 CHAPTER 2 - World Trade Center Redevelopment .............................................................................. 13 2.1 The Original World Trade Center (1970-2001)............................................................................. 13 2.2 September 11, 2001....................................................................................................................... 14 2.3 The Redevelopment of the World Trade Center ....................................................................... 15 2.4 Towers 2 & Tower 3 Overview....................................................................................................... 20 2.5 The Economic Downturn and the Towers................................................................................... 21 2.6 Potential for Residential Use and Flexibility ................................................................................. 24 CHAPTER 3 - Real Options Overview..................................................................................................... 27 3.1 Real Options Overview ................................................................................................................. 27 3.2 Types of Real Options.................................................................................................................... 28 3.3 Real Option Valuation Methods .................................................................................................. 29 3.3.1 Economic-Based Approach ................................................................................................. 29 3.3.2 Engineering Based Approach .............................................................................................. 30 CHAPTER 4 - Real Options Methodology for Towers 2 and 3.............................................................. 32 4.1 Establish a Deterministic Model ................................................................................................... 32 4.2 Identify and Incorporate Uncertainty ......................................................................................... 34 4.3 Determine Criteria for Decision Rules .......................................................................................... 35 4.4 Search Decision Combination to Achieve Optimal NPV ......................................................... 37 CHAPTER 5 - Real Option Valuation ...................................................................................................... 38 5.1 Valuation Overview....................................................................................................................... 38 5.2 Valuation Assumptions and Inputs .............................................................................................. 40 5.3 Office Only Scenario – Deterministic Model............................................................................... 42 5.4 Condo Only Scenario – Deterministic Model ............................................................................. 42 5.5 Market Uncertainty and Revenue Correlations ......................................................................... 43 4 5.6 Office Only Scenario with Market Uncertainty .......................................................................... 45 5.7 Condo Only Scenario with Market Uncertainty ......................................................................... 47 5.8 Flexible/Switch Scenario with Market Uncertainty..................................................................... 49 5.9 Valuation Conclusion.................................................................................................................... 51 CHAPTER 6 - Conclusion......................................................................................................................... 52 References .............................................................................................................................................. 53 Appendix................................................................................................................................................. 56 Appendix A - WTC Timeline ................................................................................................................ 56 Appendix B – WTC – Proposed Ground Floor Retail ........................................................................ 59 Appendix C – WTC – Proposed Ground Floor Retail ....................................................................... 60 Appendix D – Condo Massing Plans and Unit Mix........................................................................... 61 Appendix
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