MNC-I Inbrief GEN Petraeus
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UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO MNC-I Inbrief GEN Petraeus 8 February 2007 UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO Filling the Gap Facilitates Sustainable Victory in Iraq The battle for the population of Iraq/Baghdad The Iraqi Individual The Gap Gov of Iraq Who is going to fill it? Needs and Desires: Slowly developing capability for: •Physical Security Shia militia and parties? •Physical Security Power and historical revenge Issues of ISF actions/inaction •QOL improvements-Hope for better life Sectarian EJKs/Cleansing ISF Loyal to GoI Basic Essential Services EFPs Against MNC-I forces Internal power stuggles (BADR/JAM) Sewage and Clean Water •QOL improvements minimal, need Honorable job-employment SWET-F advancement Rule of Law--balanced Iraqi Sunni Resistance? Dignified employment Return to Power Expectation to improve home, family, Protection from Shia Revenge Loans for enterprise neighborhood, society Co-location/Support with AQI, but tiring of tactics Consistent Rule of Law •Respect for Tribe/Religion AQI and the Caliphate? •Perceived as Shia biased First step in safe-haven for Regional Caliphate •Representation in Local/Provincial Govt. Foreign Fighters and Terrorists •No representation in Local or High Profile attacks (SVIED, VBIED) Provincial Govt Syria--Safe Haven/Source of support for Sunni Insurgents External Influences Iran--Influence in Iraqi (Shia) affairs, keep US engaged This is the historical fault line betwenn the Arab Sunni majority and the Persian Shia minority--Arab Sunnis are nervous, and Persian Shias are optimistic. So what do we have to do? Get the GoI to fill the Gap!! Military/Security Political Economic •Iraqi led, CF support--Joint Plan •GoI & USG similar goals and endstates •Expand Oil & Electricity sectors •Control COG-Baghdad •Local and Provincial Elections •Release funds to Provinces •Protect population •Reconciliation policy •Budget expended •Reduce violence •Reasonable de-Baathification Policy •Synch with mil control of secure areas •Interdict accelerants •Consistent and balanced Rule of Law •GoI/US synch economic devel effort •Balanced targeting approach •Declared/enforced State of Emergency •Investment in SOEs & Other industries •Expand MiTT, NPTT •Expand PRTs-link to mil success •Enhance capability/legitimacy of ISF •Exploit success in MNF-W Opportunities Risks •Exploit transition to ISF in MND-N •Door for Sunnis to participate in GoI •ISF not capable of "retain" •Transition to ISSR in the South •Split between Sunni tribes and AQI •GoI unwilling to put Iraq ahead of political/sectarian impulses •Disrupt border infiltration (Iran/Syria) •Splits between Shia factions •GoI unable to provide political/economic follow-up to security •Transition to Iraqi self-reliance •Population weary of conflict UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO The Threats and Their Objectives The term AIF is not adequate to describe: 1. Shia vs. Sunni Sectarian Violence 2. AQ and AQI 3. Sunni Insurgency 4. Kurdish expansionism 5. Shia on Shia Violence 6. External influences (Iranian, Syrian and Turkish) UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO TURKEY Potential Ethnic Expansion Habur Gate Rabyah Dahuk Dahuk Kurdish Tall Afar Expansion Mosul Irbil Kirkuk Sulaymaniya Hawijah Bayji SYRIA Al Qaim Tikrit Rawah IRAN Hadithah Samarra Husaybah Balad Al Asad Baqubah Hit Diyala Fallujah Shia Ramadi Baghdad Expansion Al Walid Sunni Ar Rutbah N. Babil Hindiyah Iskandariyah Karbala Al Kut Al Hillah An Nukhayb Najaf/Kufah Diwaniyah Al Amarah Nasiriyah Qurnah Basrah Safwan Umm Qasr KUWAIT SAUDI ARABIA Kuwait City KEY CITY UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO The Operational Concept The Goal: A stable Iraq (peaceful, united, representative, secure) Key reads: – Recognize there are different threats in different areas – Realization that there is an ethnic problem – Understanding sub-agendas of multiple groups/actors – Each area requires multiple approaches based on multiple threats – The Greatest Threat to Stability is escalating Sectarian Violence – The Greatest Sectarian Violence is occurring in Baghdad, Baghdad Belts Key requirements: – Can not let Sectarian Violence continue at current rate, or increase – Stop displacement of population, particularly in Baghdad – Main effort-establish security in mixed Sunni and Shia areas-protect against Shia intimidation/displacement/violence against Sunni – Supporting efforts-maintain security in Shia areas-protect against AQ accelerants and Sunni reprisals UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO The Operational Concept Approach to different Threats: Sectarian Violence -Establish combined CF-ISF security -Ensure even-handed CF-ISF actions in the streets -Replace militias as the recognized security element -Promote political/national reconciliation -Separate factions -Broker cease fires -Counter extremists and accelerators to violence AQ and AQI -Seek out and Destroy Sunni Insurgency -Bring them into the Political process -Defeat those not reconcilable with a legitimate GoI Kurdish expansion -Persuade Kurds not to over-reach (issues with Turks and Sunni Arabs) External Influences -Cut LOCs and improve border security -Diplomatic pressure is necessary UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO Different Fights, Different Areas, Different Approaches The Threat Objectives Manifestation/ Locations Approach Indicators Sectarian Shia-Expand/Consolidate Power Intimidation Baghdad and Baghdad Belts Facilitate reconciliation Violence Sunni-Regain Power Murders N. Babil Act as third party Control resources Population moves Baqubah Broker cease-fires Fear/revenge cycle Counter accelerants Peace enforcement AQ and AQI Establish safe haven in Iraq High Profile attacks Baghdad N. Babil DESTROY AQ and AQI Establish caliphate for Mid-East (VBIED, SVIED) Fallujah Ramadi Sectarian catalyst or Baqubah Samarra Classic COIN accelerants Kirkuk Mosul Sunni Weaken & subvert Attacks on CF Baghdad N. Babil Bring into Political process Insurgency the GoI Retaliatory atks on Shia Fallujah Ramadi Legislation for reconciliation; de- Samarra Baqubah Ba'ath; Economic incentives, Delegitimize GoI Kirkuk Provincial elections Defeat those not reconcilable- COIN Kurdish Physical, Political and Economic Take over Kirkuk Kirkuk Art 140 resolution expansionism Autonomy Sunni Arab DPs Mosul Even-handed exec. of resolution Peshmerga in area Hydrocarbon law Violent Arab reprisal Intl facilitation Peace enforcement Shia on Shia Consolidation of Power primarily Attacks on each other, Baghdad Low priority Violence in the South primarily in the South Najaf Monitor, broker deals Basrah Opportunity to split Shia at political level External Iran-Keep US mired down Training, Funds, Weapons and Iran-Baghdad, Baqubah, Najaf, N. Diplomatic Pressure influence Syria-Survival Technology (EFPs), Terrorists Babil, Basrah Deterrence by threat of force and Foreign Fighters Syria-Baghdad, Fallujah, Mosul, Improved POE security (Iran, Syria, Turkey-Control Kurds Ramadi IO illustrating interference Turkey) Turkey-Kirkuk, Mosul UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO Different Fights, Different Areas, Different Approaches The Threat Objectives Manifestation/ Locations Approach Indicators Corruption Individual Wealth Collusion of GoI officials and In key geographic locations Internal Controls, intelligence, Individual Power insurgent leaders/militia In key governmental functions leveraged pressure Other Political/Personal Lack of trust in GoI and ISF associated with critical resources Application of Rule of Law and Agendas Lack of services/infrastructure Iraqi Security Formations transparency maintenance De facto sectarian policy Lack of Bureaucratic and Political Slow political action on Ministries MNF-I and USG support/pressure Capacity and resistance to change legislation In key geographic locations Lack of budget execution In key governmental functions inexperience Lack of confidence in GoI Violent Local Individual wealth Intimidation and Murder Major urban centers Empower/support the police Criminals Local power Extortion Enforce the rule of law Subvert the local, provincial, Kidnappings for ransom Arrest, Prosecute, Convict and national GoI Black-marketing Improve judicial process Intimidate population and ISF Collusion with GoI officials and Phased removal of price controls insurgent leaders Publicize conviction of criminals Increase GOI detention capability MNC-I Operational Framework RABIAH t TAL AFAR SINJARp MOSUL u r s i Ex D ploit and KIRKUK Trans BAYJI ition TIKRIT Al QAIM SAMARRA PROTECT HADITHA t Ex DefeBALADat up pl BAQUBAH isr D oi HIT D ef t a AR RAMADI BAGHDAD ea n FALLUJAH RUTBAH t d AQ D I DN.e fBABILeat i sAL KUT ru KARBALA p t NAJAF DIWANIHAH Tran AMARAH sition SAMAWAH NASIRIYAH BASRAH As Of: 18 JAN 07 UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO Considerations • Recognize that there are different fights in different areas and there are multiple fights in each area • The greatest threat to stability is Sectarian Violence • Improved security is job one • The ISF is the visible arm of the GoI, manifested in legitimacy when Rule of Law derived from GoI policy/legislation is fairly enforced by the ISF • Security not followed with visible political, economic actions by GoI can not be decisive • Sunni inclusion in the GoI through reconciliation will reduce Sunni insurgency and make AQ more vulnerable • Sustained security and united population can lead to further rejection of external influences (AQ, Iran, Syria, Turkey) UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO MNC-I Mission Statement MNC-I Mission MNC-I conducts combat, stability, and support operations in coordination with the Iraqi Security Forces to secure the population, defeat terrorists and