Iraq Situation Report: October 16 - 20, 2015

1 Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Sta visits Iraq. Gen. Dunford, Chairman of the Joint 6 ISF and “Popular Mobilization” make progress in and around Baiji. Iraqi Chiefs of Sta, traveled to Arbil and Baghdad on October 20 for meetings with PM Haider Security Forces, Iranian proxy militias, and non-proxy militias seized Siniya al-Abadi, President Fuad Masoum, and American commanders. He stated that Abadi has not and the Siniya airport, west of Baiji, on October 15. Security forces also asked Russia to conduct airstrikes. recaptured several areas north of Baiji and trapped ISIS ghters to al-Fatha, between Mount Makhul and the Hamrin Mountains. Proxy militias and a Joint Operations Command spokesperson claimed full control over Baiji, though ghting in Baiji and the Baiji Oil Re nery is ongoing. Six Coalition 2 Jordan-Iraq border temporarily opens. Jordan temporarily airstrikes targeted ISIS “near” Baiji between October 16 and October 20. re-opened the Trebil border crossing on October 18 to allow Iraqi trucks and goods to return to Iraq. Dahuk

Mosul Dam 7 Diyala governor escapes assassination attempt. Two IEDs Mosul Arbil targeted the convoy of the Diyala governor, a senior Badr Organi- 3 ISF launches operation to re-secure key town near zation member, in al-Tahrir area south of Baquba on October 19. al-Asad Airbase. Jazeera and Badia Operations Command e governor escaped unharmed, but two bodyguards ( JBOC) launched an operation on October 16 to clear ISIS were wounded. As Sulaymaniyah from areas around Baghdadi sub-district, west of Ramadi, and destroyed three VBIEDs. e Iraqi Security Forces Kirkuk cleared al-Dulab and al-Jibariya villages, east of Baghdadi, on 6 October 20.

Tikrit

Samarra 8 Qaim Muqdadiyah Protestors demand end to corruption and judicial reforms 4 ISF pushes into Ramadi from north, east, in southern provinces. Popular demonstrations occurred in and west. Iraqi Army and Anbar local Haditha Basra, Dhi Qar, Diwaniya, Maysan, and Najaf on Friday, police captured parts of Ta’mim 3 4 Baqubah October 16. Diwaniya protestors continue to rally against neighborhood in southeast- 7 the appointment of a new Fadhila governor and police chief. ern Ramadi on October Rutba Ar Ramadi Fallujah 5 Baghdad 16. ISF continues to clash with ISIS north of 2 Ramadi in Albu Faraj and west of Ramadi in 7 Kilo, Karbala Albu Risha, and Zangura. ISF Al Kut Al Hillah 8 repelled at least two VBIED attacks in Albu Jalib, west of Ramadi, on October 20. 20 Ad Diwaniyah An Najaf Coalition airstrikes targeted ISIS “near” Al Amarah Ramadi and Habaniya between October 16 and October 20.

An Nasriyah Samawa

5 ISIS detonates VBIED south of Baghdad. A VBIED detonated in Basra Yusu yah, southeast of Baghdad on October 19, killing two members of the Iraqi Security Forces and wounding nine others.

Major Cities Demonstrations 100km Major Clash VBIED Iraqi Shi’a militias Airstrikes ISF Anti-ISIS Iraqi Sunni Tribes Content: Patrick Martin, Logan Brog, and ISW Iraq Team Graphics: Evan Sterling Failed S/VBIED Coalition ISIS ©2015 by the Institute for the Study of War

e Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) and Iranian proxy militias have made rapid progress in Baiji. e ISF, Iranian-backed Iraqi Shi’a militias, and a number of non-Iranian proxy militias have recaptured key territory since Baiji operations were announced on October 14. ISF and the “Popular Mobilization” have recaptured Siniya, a town west of Baiji which security forces have had diculty recapturing in the past. Both a Joint Operations Command spokesperson and Kata’ib al-Imam Ali, a proxy militia, claimed that Baiji city had been retaken, though ghting is ongoing in parts of Baiji and in the Baiji Oil Re nery, north of the city. e rapid progress of the Baiji operation gives Iranian proxy militias signi cant leverage over Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, as they will use their prominent position in the operation’s initial success to exert greater inuence over the course of the anti-ISIS ght and Iraq’s security sector writ large. Badr Organization leader Hadi al-Amiri stated that the proxy militias will turn their attention towards Anbar once Baiji operations conclude. However, ghters from a number of Iranian proxy militias are advancing north towards Sharqat district, the last ISIS-held district in Salah ad Din province, and Hawija, the ISIS stronghold in Kirkuk province. Proxy militias will attempt to capitalize upon a message of their success in Baiji compared to a lack of success of ISF forces backed by the U.S.-led coalition in Ramadi. Initial success in Baiji may not be permanent. Baiji is a critical location that remains exposed to counterattacks by ISIS. ISIS could launch attacks on Baiji and reassert itself in the area once the presence of security forces has diminished.