Ohsho Food Service (9936): Strong 1Q Results Even Without Subsidies
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MITA SECURITIES Equity Research July 30, 2021 MITA SECURITIES Co., Ltd. Ohsho Food Service Junichi Shimizu Chief Analyst, Head of Research TSE 1st Section 9936 Industry: Food service, retail [email protected] Strong 1Q results even without subsidies Update 1Q results were a positive surprise Rating Ohsho Food Service (9936, the company) announced 1Q FY3/22 results. Sales were 20.2bn Buy yen (+11.4% YoY), OP was 1.7bn yen (+309.1% YoY), and RP was 3.2bn yen (+430.7% YoY). The company posted subsidy income of 1.359bn yen as non-operating income (vs. 53m yen Target price (JPY) 7,250 in 1Q FY3/21). Same-store sales growth for directly-owned stores was +8.4% YoY (number Stock price (JPY) (Jul 30) 5,860 of customers +7.8% YoY, average spend per customer +0.6% YoY). Market cap (JPYbn) 136.5 Progress rate vs. 1H guidance announced in May (OP 2.888bn yen, RP 4.022bn yen) was Key changes 59% for OP and 78% for RP. The company maintained its 1H and full-year guidance. Rating No Target price No The number of stores at end-1Q was as follows: directly-owned stores 529 (two new Earnings forecast No openings, one closure in 1Q); FC 204 (two new openings, four closures). Stock price (JPY) 10,000 We believe that the 1Q results were quite favorable in light of the emergency measures 9,000 8,000 and proliferation prevention measures taken throughout Japan. OPM was 8.4% 7,000 6,000 (YoY+6.1ppt, QoQ+1.2ppt). The company secured a strong profit at OP level (not including 5,000 4,000 subsidy income). We believe that this reflects the positive recognition of the brand value 3,000 of “Gyoza no Ohsho” by consumers. 2,000 1,000 9936 JT Equity 0 7/20 6/21 1/20 2/20 3/20 4/20 5/20 6/20 8/20 9/20 1/21 2/21 3/21 4/21 5/21 7/21 11/20 12/19 10/20 12/20 11/19 Please refer to the report dated June 22, 2021 for the rationale of the rating and target Source: Bloomberg Finance LP price. Earnings 3/20 3/21 3/22E 3/23E 3/24E Sales JPYbn 85.6 80.6 88.4 94.2 96.9 OP JPYbn 7.7 6.1 7.5 8.8 9.1 RP JPYbn 8.1 6.9 8.8 9.2 9.4 NP JPYbn 5.3 4.3 5.5 5.9 6.1 EPS JPY 283.0 228.4 295.1 315.9 323.9 BPS JPY 2,681 2,821 3,016 3,212 3,396 DPS JPY 120.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 150.0 PER x 20.4 25.5 19.8 18.5 18.1 PBR x 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.7 Div. yield % 2.1 1.7 2.1 2.4 2.6 ROA % 8.1 5.4 6.0 6.2 6.4 ROE % 10.9 8.3 10.1 10.1 9.8 Source: Company data, Mita Securities Company profile Ohsho Food Service is a Kyoto-based restaurant company that operates the largest Chinese restaurant chain “Gyoza no Ohsho” nationwide. 734 restaurants (528 directly owned, 206 franchised) at the end of FY3/21. Sales of 80.6bn yen in FY3/21. Take-out and delivery sales are strong. MITA SECURITIES Co., Ltd. / 3-11 Nihonbashi Kabuto-cho, Chuo-ku, Tokyo, Japan 1 PLEASE SEE APPENDIX FOR ANALYST CERFICITATION AND INPORTANT DISCLOSURES. Ohsho Food Service (9936) July 30, 2021 Quarterly and monthly data Quarterly data Figure: Sales, OP, OPM 25.0 12.0 10.0 20.0 8.0 15.0 6.0 10.0 4.0 5.0 2.0 1.9 2.1 2.0 1.7 2.0 2.2 1.4 1.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 3/20 3/21 3/22 Sales OP OPM (%, RHS) Source: Company data, Mita Securities Monthly data Figure: Directly-owned, same-store sales Figure: Directly-owned, same-store number of customers Same-store sales Same-store number of customers 130.0 130.0 120.0 120.0 110.0 110.0 100.0 100.0 90.0 90.0 80.0 80.0 70.0 70.0 60.0 60.0 4/18 6/18 8/18 2/19 4/19 6/19 8/19 2/20 4/20 6/20 8/20 2/21 4/21 6/21 4/18 6/18 8/18 2/19 4/19 6/19 8/19 2/20 4/20 6/20 8/20 2/21 4/21 6/21 10/18 12/18 10/19 12/19 10/20 12/20 12/19 10/18 12/18 10/19 10/20 12/20 vs last year vs year before last vs last year vs year before last Source: Company data, Mita Securities Note: Same month last year or year before last = 100 Source: Company data, Mita Securities Note: Same month last year or year before last = 100 Figure: Directly-owned, same-store ave spend per customer Figure: Directly-owned, all-store sales (JPYm) 7,500 Same-store average spend per customer 130.0 7,000 120.0 6,500 110.0 100.0 6,000 90.0 5,500 80.0 70.0 5,000 60.0 4,500 6/21 6/18 8/18 2/19 4/19 6/19 8/19 2/20 4/20 6/20 8/20 2/21 4/21 4/18 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 10/18 12/18 10/19 12/19 10/20 12/20 vs last year vs year before last FY3/19 FY3/20 FY3/21 FY3/22 Source: Company data, Mita Securities Note: Same month last year or year before last = 100 Source: Company data, Mita Securities 2 Ohsho Food Service (9936) July 30, 2021 Food service industry data Same-store sales (compared to last year or year before last) Figure: Family restaurants Figure: Sushi restaurants 120.0 140.0 110.0 130.0 100.0 120.0 110.0 90.0 100.0 80.0 90.0 70.0 80.0 60.0 70.0 50.0 60.0 40.0 50.0 30.0 40.0 4/19 7/19 10/19 1/20 4/20 7/20 10/20 1/21 4/21 4/19 7/19 10/19 1/20 4/20 7/20 10/20 1/21 4/21 Skylark Skylark Saizeriya Sushiro Sushiro Kura Sushi Kura Sushi Saizeriya Royal Host Royal Host Kappa Sushi Kappa Sushi Genki Sushi Genki Sushi Source: Companies data, Mita Securities Note: Solid line vs last yr, dotted line vs yr before last Source: Companies data, Mita Securities Note: Solid line vs last yr, dotted line vs yr before last Figure: Izakaya (Japanese style pubs) Figure: Chinese restaurants 110.0 120.0 100.0 110.0 90.0 80.0 100.0 70.0 90.0 60.0 80.0 50.0 40.0 70.0 30.0 60.0 20.0 50.0 10.0 0.0 40.0 4/19 7/19 10/19 1/20 4/20 7/20 10/20 1/21 4/21 4/19 7/19 10/19 1/20 4/20 7/20 10/20 1/21 4/21 Torikizoku Torikizoku SFP SFP Ohsho FS Ohsho FS Hiday Hidaka Hiday Hidaka Watami Watami Chimney Chimney Kourakuen Kourakuen Ringer Hut Ringer Hut Source: Companies data, Mita Securities Note: Solid line vs last yr, dotted line vs yr before last Source: Companies data, Mita Securities Note: Solid line vs last yr, dotted line vs yr before last Figure: Yakiniku (Japanese BBQ), steak Figure: Monogatari Corporation by division 130.0 140.0 120.0 130.0 110.0 120.0 100.0 110.0 90.0 100.0 90.0 80.0 80.0 70.0 70.0 60.0 60.0 50.0 50.0 40.0 40.0 30.0 30.0 20.0 20.0 10.0 10.0 0.0 0.0 4/19 7/19 10/19 1/20 4/20 7/20 10/20 1/21 4/21 4/19 7/19 10/19 1/20 4/20 7/20 10/20 1/21 4/21 Monogatari Corp (yakiniku) Monogatari Corp (yakiniku) Monogatari Corp Monogatari Corp Amiyaki Tei Monogatari Corp (ramen) Monogatari Corp (ramen) Monogatari Corp (okonomiyaki) Monogatari Corp (okonomiyaki) Amiyaki Tei PFS (Ikinari ! Steak) PFS (Ikinari ! Steak) Monogatari Corp (Yuzuan) Monogatari Corp (Yuzuan) Source: Companies data, Mita Securities Note: Solid line vs last yr, dotted line vs yr before last Source: Companies data, Mita Securities Note: Solid line vs last yr, dotted line vs yr before last 3 Ohsho Food Service (9936) July 30, 2021 Figure: Coffee shops Figure: Hamburger shops 120.0 140.0 110.0 130.0 100.0 90.0 120.0 80.0 110.0 70.0 60.0 100.0 50.0 90.0 40.0 80.0 30.0 4/19 7/19 10/19 1/20 4/20 7/20 10/20 1/21 4/21 4/19 7/19 10/19 1/20 4/20 7/20 10/20 1/21 4/21 Komeda Komeda Doutor Coffee Doutor Coffee McDonald's McDonald's Mos Burger Mos Burger Source: Companies data, Mita Securities Note: Solid line vs last yr, dotted line vs yr before last Source: Companies data, Mita Securities Note: Solid line vs last yr, dotted line vs yr before last Figure: Curry, Beef bowl Figure: Set meal, Udon noodle 120.0 120.0 115.0 110.0 110.0 100.0 105.0 100.0 90.0 95.0 80.0 90.0 70.0 85.0 60.0 80.0 75.0 50.0 70.0 40.0 4/19 7/19 10/19 1/20 4/20 7/20 10/20 1/21 4/21 4/19 7/19 10/19 1/20 4/20 7/20 10/20 1/21 4/21 Ichibanya Ichibanya Zensho (Sukiya) Ootoya Ootoya Toridoll Toridoll Zensho (Sukiya) Yosihoya Yosihoya Source: Companies data, Mita Securities Note: Solid line vs last yr, dotted line vs yr before last Source: Companies data, Mita Securities Note: Solid line vs last yr, dotted line vs yr before last 4 Ohsho Food Service (9936) July 30, 2021 Comparison of valuations with similar companies (reference) Figure: Comparison of valuations for food service companies Company name Ticker PX Mkt cap Net D/E Sales YoY EBITDA Mgn ROE ROE ROE PER PER PER PBR EV/EBITDA EV/Sales Div yield 1M 3M 1YR 7/29 JPYbn Last LTM LTM LTM Cur E Nxt E LTM Cur E Nxt E Last Cur E Cur E Cur E Chg Chg Chg KURA SUSHI INC 2695 4,105 169.9 -0.1 7.4 4.6 3.1 8.3 12.3 119.0 42.5 26.6 3.6 14.3 1.1 0.6 -11.7 7.2 83.9 MCDONALD'S HOLDINGS CO JAPAN 2702 4,960 659.5 -0.2 2.4 14.8 12.7 11.4 10.9 31.0 30.9 29.0 3.7 13.3 2.0 0.8 1.2 -0.6 -5.5 OOTOYA HOLDINGS CO LTD 2705 2,743 19.9 0.2 -34.3 -24.0 -203.9 NA NA NA NA NA 14.1 NA NA NA 2.7 6.7 -2.5 FUJIO FOOD GROUP INC 2752 1,341 59.8 3.6 -33.9 -12.3 -81.6 11.5 NA NA 128.9 35.3 16.6 NA 2.2 0.0 7.5 -6.0 11.3 AMIYAKI TEI CO LTD 2753 2,937 20.1 -0.1 -18.3 -9.6 -2.5 2.0 NA NA 50.3 20.1 1.0 NA 0.5 0.0 0.7 4.6 13.3 HIRAMATSU INC 2764 191 9.3 4.1 -36.6 -32.2 -79.3 NA NA NA NA NA 2.6 NA NA NA -9.5 24.8 18.6 PEPPER FOOD SERVICE CO LTD 3053 411 16.2 2.4 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 27.2 NA NA NA -13.5 44.7 -2.6 ARCLAND SERVICE HOLDINGS CO 3085 2,265 75.0 -0.6 18.8 12.9 14.5 13.8 12.7 23.7 23.1 23.5 3.3 10.8 1.4 1.1 3.1 3.7 27.5 CHOUSHIMARU CO LTD 3075 1,147 16.7 -0.8 -1.6 3.7 5.6 NA NA 42.2 NA NA 2.3 NA NA NA 0.4 -2.4 24.0 DOUTOR NICHIRES HOLDINGS CO 3087 1,677 76.5 -0.3 -11.4 -0.8 -5.3 4.0 3.1 NA 19.7 18.9 0.8 7.7 0.4 1.4 -2.2 3.0 15.3 BRONCO BILLY CO LTD 3091 2,482 37.4 -0.3 -12.1 5.7 4.0 NA NA 54.5 NA NA 2.1 NA NA 0.6 4.5 5.3 25.2 MONOGATARI CORP 3097 6,950 83.9 0.2 -8.4 8.5 7.8 15.4 NA 55.0 28.1 24.7 4.2 13.5 1.3 0.9 -7.0 -6.0 79.6 (TP 9,100 Buy) CHIMNEY CO LTD 3178 1,414 27.3 0.8 -67.8 -38.2 -94.9 NA NA NA NA NA 5.5 NA NA NA 3.3 17.3 21.7 TORIKIZOKU HOLDINGS CO LTD 3193 1,734 20.2 0.0 -40.8 -9.9 -39.3 NA NA NA NA 27.9 4.2 NA 0.9 0.0 -3.5 9.2 33.5 HOTLAND CO LTD 3196 1,302 28.0 0.6 -12.3 2.8 -8.1 15.3 NA NA