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Open Sangpenchan Msthesis.Pdf The Pennsylvania State University The Graduate School Department of Geography CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON CASSAVA PRODUCTION IN NORTHEASTERN THAILAND A Thesis in Geography by Ratchanok Sangpenchan 2009 Ratchanok Sangpenchan Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science August 2009 ii The thesis of Ratchanok Sangpenchan was reviewed and approved* by the following: Amy Glasmeier Professor of Geography Thesis Advisor William E. Easterling Professor of Geography Karl Zimmerer Head of the Department of Geography *Signatures are on file in the Graduate School iii ABSTRACT Analyses conducted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007) suggest that some regions of Southeast Asia will begin to experience warmer temperatures due to elevated CO2 concentrations. Since the projected change is expected to affect the agricultural sector, especially in the tropical climate zones, it is important to examine possible changes in crop yields and their bio-physiological responses to future climate conditions in these areas. This study employed a climate impact assessment to evaluate potential cassava root crop production in marginal areas of Northeast Thailand, using climate change projected by the CSIRO-Mk3 model for 2009–2038. The EPIC (Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator) crop model was then used to simulate cassava yield according to four scenarios based on combinations of CO2 fertilization effects scenarios (current CO2 level and 1% per year increase) and agricultural practice scenarios (with current practices and assumed future practices). Future practices are the result of assumed advances in agronomic technology that are likely to occur irrespective of climate change. They are not prompted by climate change per se, but rather by the broader demand for higher production levels. This thesis illustrates the potential impact on cassava production due to climate change, and the use of advanced technologies in agricultural practices that will probably occur in the future. Generally, crop losses stem from higher mean temperatures. However, there are also benefits from elevated CO2 concentrations. Depending on the climate change scenario without a CO2 fertilization effect, the average annual yield for cassava is projected to decrease from current production by 28%. CO2 fertilization effect cannot iv fully overcome these negative results. A positive increase in yield of about 35% is also projected in light of future adjustments in agricultural technology. Future cassava production in Northeast Thailand will be significantly affected by the climate change projected there, but detrimental effects may be mitigated by utilizing CO2 enrichment which promotes crop survival in marginal areas. v TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES .....................................................................................................vii LIST OF TABLES.......................................................................................................ix ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS.........................................................................................x Chapter 1 Introduction ................................................................................................1 Chapter 2 Relevant Research......................................................................................8 Approach to Climate Impact Assessment.............................................................8 Justification for Research .....................................................................................10 Climate Impacts....................................................................................................10 Climate Changes in Southeast Asia...............................................................11 Characteristics of Climate Conditions in Thailand .......................................13 Agricultural Production: An Exposure Unit.........................................................14 Root Crops and Their Importance .................................................................17 Cassava: Characteristics and Production.......................................................19 Impacts on Agriculture .........................................................................................20 Methods of Impact Assessment............................................................................23 EPIC Crop Model..........................................................................................24 Research Questions...............................................................................................26 Chapter 3 Study Areas ................................................................................................28 Characteristics of the Study Areas........................................................................28 Soil Characteristics........................................................................................32 Climate Patterns.............................................................................................33 Climate Variability ........................................................................................39 Agriculture in the Study Areas .............................................................................39 Past Impacts of Climate on Agriculture................................................................43 Chapter 4 Method and Data ........................................................................................45 Study Site Selection..............................................................................................45 Methodology.........................................................................................................47 Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator (EPIC) Model ................................49 Input Data Required for the Model.......................................................................52 Weather data..................................................................................................52 Soil Data ........................................................................................................53 Management Data..........................................................................................54 vi Model Validation..................................................................................................55 Chapter 5 Climate and Crop Scenarios.......................................................................59 Climate Change Scenarios....................................................................................60 Climate Ccenarios .........................................................................................60 CO2 Scenarios................................................................................................66 Crop Scenarios......................................................................................................67 Chapter 6 Crop Yield and Responses for Various Scenarios .....................................71 Effects of Climate Change and CO2 on Cassava Yield ........................................72 Effect of Climate Variables on Crop Yield ...................................................73 Effects of CO2 on Crop Yield with Current Agricultural Technology/Practice...............................................................................74 Effects of Climate Variables, CO2 with Future Agricultural Technology/Practice...............................................................................75 Effects of Climate Change, CO2, with Future Agricultural Technology/Practice...............................................................................77 Effect of CO2 Fertilization on Crop’s Water Relations........................................80 Relations between Climate Change and CO2 Affect Crop Yield..........................84 Chapter 7 Conclusion..................................................................................................88 Bibliography ................................................................................................................92 Appendix Adjustment of the CSIRO-Mk3 Climate Data...........................................102 vii LIST OF FIGURES Figure 2-1: Basic conceptual model of climate impacts..............................................9 Figure 2-2: Geographical features of Thailand............................................................15 Figure 3-1: Map of the study areas––Sakon Nakhon and Udon Thani. .....................30 Figure 3-2: Sakon Nakhon and Khorat basins in the northeast region. ......................31 Figure 3-3: Map of the Dan Sai soil series in the Sakon Nakhon province................34 Figure 3-4: Map of the Dan Sai soil series in the Udon Thani province ....................35 Figure 3-5: Climate patterns in Northeast Thailand ....................................................37 Figure 3-6: Climate patterns in the Sakon Nakhon province.......................................38 Figure 3-7: Climate patterns in the Udon Thani province ...........................................38 Figure 3-8: Variability in air temperature in 1978–2007.............................................40 Figure 3-9: Variability in precipitation in 1978–2007.................................................41 Figure 3-10: Trend in cassava planting in the study areas...........................................43 Figure 3-11: Cassava production trends in the study areas..........................................44 Figure 4-1:
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