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01/2015 PANORAMA INSIGHTS INTO ASIAN AND EUROPEAN AFFAIRS FROM THE DESERT TO WORLD CITIES THE NEW TERRORISM K o n r a d A d e n a u e r S t i f t u n g Panorama: Insights into Asian and European Affairs is a series of occasional papers published by the Konrad- Adenauer-Stiftung’s “Regional Programme Political Dialogue Asia/Singapore”. © 2015 Copyright by Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung, Singapore All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying or recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission from the publisher. Editor: Dr. Wilhelm Hofmeister Sub-editor: Megha Sarmah Publisher: Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung Ltd 34/36 Bukit Pasoh Road Singapore 089848 Registration Number: 201228783N Tel: (65) 6227-2001 Tel: (65) 6227-8343 Email: [email protected] Website: http//:www.kas.de/singapore Manuscript offers, review copies, exchange journals, and requests for subscription are to be sent to the editors. The responsibility for facts and opinions in this publication rests exclusively with the authors and their interpretations do not necessarily reflect the views or the policy of Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung. Cover photograph by ©iStock.com/Simon Podgorsek Design, Layout and Typeset: Select Books Pte Ltd 65A, Jalan Tenteram #02-06, St Michael’s Industrial Estate Singapore 328958 Website: www.selectbooks.com.sg PANORAMA INSIGHTS INTO ASIAN AND EUROPEAN AFFAIRS From the Desert to World Cities The New Terrorism CONTENTS PREFACE 7 The Rise of the Islamic State: Terrorism’s New Face in Asia 9 Rohan Gunaratna Foreign Fighters and Returning Jihadis — The Biggest Terrorist Threat to Security in Europe? 21 Kristina Eichhorst Western Jihadists in Syria and Iraq: A Preliminary Overview 29 Peter R. Neumann Five Charges in the Islamic Case against the Islamic State 37 Naveed S. Sheikh Religion, Youth and the Effects of ISIS Narratives on Radicalisation in the West 57 Akil N. Awan A Comparison between Ethnic-Driven and Religious-Driven Terrorism: A Study of PKK and IS in Turkey and their Future Prospects 71 Hüseyin Bagci and Hasan Hilmi Gullu The Kurds and the Islamic State: Redrawing the Map in Mesopotamia 91 Ofra Bengio Islamic State, Radicalisation and the Recruitment of Foreign Fighters in Australia: The Pull to Make Hijrah from the Lucky Country to God’s Nation 105 Greg Barton Indonesian Youth: Religious-Linked Violence and Terrorism 123 Azyumardi Azra Terrorism and Youth in South Asia 135 Rajeshwari Krishnamurthy Radicalization: Impact on Muslim Minority Communities in Southern Philippines 149 Mussolini Sinsuat Lidasan The Virtual Reality of Youth, Radicalization, and Terrorism 163 Elina Noor Syria and Iraq: The Long-Term Cost of Geopolitical Destabilisation 173 Jörg Michael Dostal German Fighters and Their Impact on Domestic Security 197 Henner Fürtig France after Paris: Domestic Radicalization and Policy Responses 209 Mansouria Mokhefi Terrorism and Youth in the UK 233 Kamaldeep Bhui and J. Boora Danish Preventive Measures and De-radicalization Strategies: The Aarhus Model 241 Preben Bertelsen Preface Global terrorism has undergone a massive makeover with the rise of new terrorist groups. Since 2011, the Syrian civil war has breathed new life into jihadi militancy, providing an unprecedented wave of recruits, a large number of whom were ten years old or younger on 9/11. This new generation of jihadists has grown up knowing more about Iraq, Zarqawi and Facebook than about Bin Laden, Afghanistan or the mosque. Today, the world faces several jihadi threats: Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS or ISIL) and violent extremism in the Middle East, terrorist activities by Boko Haram in Nigeria, al Shabaab in Somalia, the Taliban and Al Qaeda in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and competing militias in Libya. Emerging as well as existing threats that have grown significantly over the past three years make a global response imperative. As a major threat to security and order in the 21st century, terrorism demands a more deliberative and effective response. The last two years has seen a dramatic increase in terror attacks globally: the recent attack in Texas, the attack at Parliament Hill in Ottawa, the attack against Charlie Hebdo in Paris, the Lindt cafe siege in the West, several terror attacks in Pakistan and several others in Africa including the Baga massacre and the Kenya University attack. It has been more than a decade since the 9/11 attacks in the United States, which shocked the international system, changing global perspectives on both the threat of terrorism and the tools required to prevent it. Although multilateral instruments against terror- ism already exist, the unprecedented reach and potential of terrorist networks that have emerged recently constitute a new danger that challenges existing tools and institutions. In recent years, terrorist networks have evolved, and some have started operating as non-state actors. Taking advantage of porous borders and interconnected international systems—finance, communications, and transit—terrorist groups can reach every cor- ner of the globe and have moved operatives, money and material across borders and through the crevices of the global economy. Terrorism has now moved from the desert to world cities. No state, however powerful, can defend itself unilaterally against transnational terrorism. The EU and Asia have held several meetings and started various initiatives under the framework of the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), the Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM), and the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), among others. However, there is still a need for cooperation and coordination in all dimensions of counter-terrorism. In this issue of Panorama: Insights into Asian and European Affairs, we have asked authors from various countries to shed light on the factors that have contributed to the Preface recent development in the Middle East and to discuss the implications of terrorism on societies in Asia and Europe. Special attention was given to the recruitment of young 7 people, the attractiveness of terrorist groups to the youth, the role of religion and social media, as well as preventive de-radicalization measures. Dr. Wilhelm Hofmeister From the Desert to World Cities: The New Terrorism The New Cities: World From the Desert to 8 The Rise of the Islamic State: Terrorism’s New Face in Asia Rohan Gunaratna Introduction A new Asian threat landscape is emerging. The Islamic State (IS) is eclipsing the traditional influence of Al Qaeda in Asia. The strength, size and influence of Al Qaeda- centric groups are diminishing and IS-centric groups are gathering momentum. Three dozen threat groups in Central, South, Southeast and Northeast Asia have pledged al- legiance or expressed support to IS. The Asians that trained and fought in Pakistan and Afghanistan formed the nuclei of Al Qaeda-associated threat groups in Asia. Similarly, will the Asians returning from Syria and Iraq be motivated, networked and resourced to advance IS’s interests regionally? With the growing popularity of IS, will they create and staff IS-associated threat groups? Despite government efforts, at least 2500 Asians have travelled to the core area of Syria and Iraq. According to Global Pathfinder 2, Asia’s dedicated database of group, personality and attack profiles, Central Asians, South Asians, Southeast Asians, Northeast Asians and Australian and New Zealand citizens travelled to the core area. As government security and intelligence services are still trying to build their capaci- ties to fight the threat, the numbers are approximate and very likely on the lower side. What is evident is that IS has emerged as the dominant factor influencing both threat groups and vulnerable segments of our communities. Based on interviews with returnees from Syria and Iraq, the focus of this paper is how an IS-centric threat landscape is developing in Southeast Asia. The developments in Southeast Asia may provide insights into how other regions can (a) prevent and respond to the current and emerging IS-centric threat environment and (b) cooperate with their international partners to mitigate the threat. The Context Southeast Asian terrorist and extremist groups have been influenced by the ideology Asia New Face in Terrorism’s The Rise of the Islamic State: and methodology of Al Qaeda until recently. Al Qaeda provided the ideology, train- ing, finance and broad direction to a dozen threat groups. Al Qaeda financed several 9 attacks in the region including an operation to attack a US west coast target. Al Qaeda associate in Southeast Asia Jemaah Islamiyah and a breakaway faction of Al Qaeda in the Malay archipelago staged the Bali attacks in 2002 and 2005 and the J.W. Marriott attack in 2003 respectively. Ten years later, Al Qaeda is being supplanted by IS, a group with greater reach and resources. Jamaah Ansharut Tauhid (JAT), an Indonesian extremist group created by Abu Bakar Ba’asyir, the “godfather” of Indonesian jihadists, and another two dozen groups have either expressed support to IS or their leaders have pledged allegiance to its leader, Abu Bakr al Baghdadi alias Caliph Ibrahim. Indonesian, Malaysian and Singaporean authorities have arrested IS ideologues, operatives and supporters. While most Southeast Asians travel to Iraq and Syria from their countries of origin, a few were recruited when they were studying in the Middle East. A significant proportion of Southeast Asian recruits had either served or were serving with threat groups such as JAT, Jemaah Islamiyah and Kumpulan Militan Malaysia (KMM). Having missed the opportunity for “martyrdom” in foreign or their own conflict zones, the Southeast Asian veterans of Afghanistan, Philippines, and Indonesia (Poso and Ambon) seek to travel to Syria and Iraq. The end-of-time prophesy that the greatest of all battles will be fought in Sham (greater Syria or Levant) makes “martyrdom” in Syria the most at- tractive battlefield.

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