International Baltic Earth Secretariat Publication No. 9, June 2016 1st Baltic Earth Conference Multiple drivers for Earth system changes in the Baltic Sea region Nida, Curonian Spit, Lithuania 13 - 17 June 2016 Conference Proceedings Edited by Marcus Reckermann and Silke Köppen Impressum International Baltic Earth Secretariat Publications ISSN 2198-4247 International Baltic Earth Secretariat Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht GmbH Max-Planck-Str. 1 D-21502 Geesthacht, Germany www.baltic-earth.eu [email protected] Front page photo: The Great Dune near Nida on the Curonian Spit, Neringa, Lithuania (Martin Stendel) Organizers and Sponsors Klaipėda University, Lithuania Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht Centre for Materials and Coastal Research, Germany Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute Norrköping, Sweden Uppsala University, Sweden Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde, Germany Conference Committee Juris Aigars, Latvia Franz Berger, Germany Inga Dailidienė, Lithuania Jari Haapala, Finland Sirje Keevallik, Estonia Karol Kulinski, Poland Andreas Lehmann, Germany H. E. Markus Meier, Germany and Sweden (Chair) Kai Myrberg, Finland Carin Nilsson, Sweden Anders Omstedt, Sweden Irina Partasenok, Belarus Piia Post, Estonia Marcus Reckermann, Germany Gregor Rehder, Germany Anna Rutgersson, Sweden (Vice-Chair) Corinna Schrum, Germany Benjamin Smith, Sweden Martin Stendel, Denmark Hans von Storch, Germany Ralf Weisse, Germany Sergey Zhuravlev, Russia Organisation Committee Inga Dailidienė, Lithuania Hans-Jörg-Isemer, Germany Silke Köppen, Germany H. E. Markus Meier, Germany and Sweden Marcus Reckermann, Germany Anna Rutgersson, Sweden Acknowledgments This conference is jointly organized by the University of Klaipeda, Lithuania, and the International Baltic Earth Secretariat at Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht, Germany. We would like to thank the sponsors for generously supporting the conference. Furthermore, we would like to thank the local organization committee, in particular Inga Dailidienė and Eglė Baltranaitė, and the numerous student helpers. Sabine Billerbeck, Sabine Hartmann and Hans-Jörg Isemer are acknowledged for their invaluable support before and during the conference. Very special thanks go to Silke Köppen of the International Baltic Earth Secretariat for brilliantly organizing the preparation of the conference and associated publications. Preface Three years ago, Baltic Earth was launched at the final BALTEX Conference in June 2013 on Öland, Sweden. Since then, a lot has happened: An Interim (and later permanent) Science Steering Group was installed with some new faces, but keeping also some experienced BALTEX warriors to warrant continuity. Two summer schools were organized under the Baltic Earth flag, and it was very satisfying to see many students of those summer schools also participating at this conference, presenting their scientific work and actively contributing to the scientific discussion. Baltic Earth, together with different institutions has organized eight workshops, seminars or conference sessions, and two major topical conferences. Then, the second BACC book was published in April 2015 which was a major effort of the BALTEX-Baltic Earth community. Last but not least, a Baltic Earth Science Plan was drafted and will be presented to the Baltic Earth community at this conference. The science plan is intended to reach a large spectrum of scientists and stakeholders in order to attract a wide range of players in the region to Baltic Earth. The topic of this 1st dedicated Baltic Earth Conference was suggested and discussed at the 2nd Meeting of the Baltic Earth Interim Science Steering Group in Sopot, Poland in November 2013. It arose from the understanding that the regional Earth System changes we perceive are really a mixture of different factors interwoven in complicated ways, and of which climate change is one driver. This was one of the lessons from the BACC II book. Still, the sessions of this conference reflect the Baltic Earth Grand Challenges plus the conference topic as a brand new Grand Challenge (as of 2016): • Salinity dynamics • Land-Sea-Atmosphere biogeochemical feedbacks • Natural hazards and high impact events • Sea level dynamics, coastal morphology and erosion • Regional variability of water and energy exchanges • Regional climate system modeling • Multiple and interrelated drivers of environmental changes The conference is also intended to be a discussion forum about the perspective and future prospects of Baltic Earth, and the new challenges at the horizon. This will be discussed during the two dedicated plenary discussion slots. For this first Baltic Earth conference, we have received 134 abstracts from 13 countries, among them also countries outside the Baltic Sea region. As for the previous BALTEX conference proceedings, no discrimination is made in this volume regarding poster or oral presentation; they are all sorted alphabetically within topics. We see the large number of abstracts as an indication that Baltic Earth is attractive to a wide range of scientists around the Baltic Sea, and we hope that this interest may still increase in the future. Markus Meier, Anna Rutgersson and Marcus Reckermann For the Conference Committee Contents Contributions are sorted within topics alphabetically. Keynotes and special talks Rehabilitating the Chesapeake Bay (USA) ecosystem under changing climate Donald F. Boesch, Z. Johnson, M. Li ............................................................................................. 1 Interrelation of geosphere, climate processes and anthroposphere in the Baltic Sea basin during the Holocene Jan Harff, H. Jöns, A. Rosentau ...................................................................................................... 3 Agriculture in the Baltic Sea region, major driver and challenges Christoph Humborg ...................................................................................................................... 4 PannEx: Towards a Regional Hydroclimate Project in the Pannonian Basin Mónika Lakatos, I. Güttler, J. Cuxart Rodamilans ........................................................................ 5 Connecting Analytical Thinking and Intuition: Challenges for leadership and education in Earth System Sciences Anders Omstedt ............................................................................................................................ 7 Two centuries of extreme events over the Baltic Sea and North Sea regions Martin Stendel, E. van den Besselaar, A. Hannachi, J. Jaagus, E. Kent, E. Lefebve, G. Rosenhagen, A. Rutgersson, F. Schenk, G. van der Schrier, T. Woollings ................................... 9 Topic A: Salinity dynamics Benthic foraminifera record environmental and climate changes in the Bornholm Basin (Baltic Sea) over the last 6 millennia Anna Binczewska, P. Astemann, M. Moros, J. Sławińska ........................................................... 11 Marine saline water intrusions and variation in the Curonian Lagoon Inga Dailidiene, L. Davuliene, V. Genyte .................................................................................... 12 Tracer studies of water exchange in Gulf of Riga, winter 2015-2016 Vilnis Frishfelds, U. Bethers, J. Sennikovs .................................................................................. 13 Investigation of properties of inertial waves on the base of long-term ADCP data at moored stations in the Slupsk Furrow and Gdansk Deep Maria Golenko, K. Sabinin, D. Rak .............................................................................................. 15 On the role of the haline conditions in the Belt Sea in the formation of highly saline barotropic inflows to the Baltic Sea. Katharina Höflich, A. Lehmann, K. Myrberg ............................................................................... 16 Pathways of deep cyclones associated with large volume changes (LVCs) and Major Baltic Inflows (MBIs) Andreas Lehmann, K. Höflich, P. Post, K. Myrberg .................................................................... 18 High-resolution view on the subsurface salinity maxima in the Gulf of Riga Taavi Liblik, M. Skudra, U. Lips ................................................................................................... 20 Statistics of deep estuarine circulation vs reverse estuarine circulation in the Gulf of Finland Madis-Jaak Lilover, J. Elken, T. Liblik .......................................................................................... 21 Salinity oscillations in the range of seasonal variability Ekaterina Litina, E. Zakharchuk .................................................................................................. 23 The impact of the recent series of barotropic inflows on deep water conditions in the Eastern Gotland Basin – time series observations. Volker Mohrholz, T. Heene, S. Beier, G. Nausch, M. Naumann ................................................. 25 A succession of four Major Baltic Inflows in the period 2014-2016 – an overview of propagation and environmental change Michael Naumann, G. Nausch, V. Mohrholz .............................................................................. 27 Assessment of long time series of atmospheric circulation patterns forcing large volume changes and major inflows to the Baltic Sea Piia Post, A. Lehmann ................................................................................................................. 28 A high resolution NEMO-Nordic setup for the Gulf of Bothnia Semjon