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Intra-Party Politics and Party System Factional Conflict, Cooperation and Fission Within Italian Parties

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Intra-Party Politics and Party System Factional Conflict, Cooperation and Fission Within Italian Parties UNIVERSITA` DEGLI STUDI DI MILANO Graduate School in Social and Political Sciences Dipartimento di Studi Sociali e Politici Dottorato di ricerca in Studi Politici, ciclo XXIV Tesi di dottorato Intra-party Politics and Party System Factional Conflict, Cooperation and Fission within Italian Parties Settore Scientifico-Disciplinare: SPS/04 Autore: Andrea Ceron Tutor: Prof. Luigi Curini Coordinatore del dottorato: Prof. Marco Giuliani ANNO ACCADEMICO 2010-2011 ii Tutor: Prof. Luigi Curini University of Milan Doctoral Committee Prof. Kenneth Benoit London School of Economics (LSE) Prof. Thomas Konig¨ Mannheim Centre for European Social Research (MZES) Prof. Paolo Martelli University of Milan iii iv Acknowledgements First and foremost I offer my deepest gratitude to my supervisor, Prof. Luigi Curini, who supported me with his expertise throughout my dissertation. I would like to sincerely thank him for his guidance, carried out with patience and respect. He has always been there to discuss any major concern and to help me solving any trouble I faced during the work. His hints and suggestions leaded me to constantly improve my research. Despite his many commitments, prof. Curini has always found a way to supervise my work with accuracy, even when we were several time zones away from each other. Far from any rhetoric, I have really much appreciated his helpfulness. I am also grateful to some other people who gave me suggestions about how to improve the present work. In particular, I would like to thank Prof. Paolo Martelli who devoted time to revising one chapter of the present work, giving me useful ideas to clarify some aspects of the dissertation before writing the final handout. In turn, Prof. Fabio Franchino gave me some hints to improve one empirical chapter and he deserves my gratitude for that. I would like to thank Prof. Gary King, for hosting me at the Institute for Quantitative Social Science (IQSS), Harvard University, and for his advices about how to make my research more interesting, as well as Prof. Stefano Iacus for helping me to join the IQSS. I really appreciated the time spent there, and such experience contributed in several ways to enhance the quality of my work. In this sense, I also thank Professors Stephen Ansolabehere, v Nahomi Ichino, James Snyder and Arthur Spirling for their politeness. They devoted their time to read and discuss with me some points of the present dissertation and indeed the final version of my research benefits from their hints and suggestions. Along the same vein, I am grateful to the discussant and to the participants at the Research Workshop in Comparative Politics, Harvard University, where I presented an early draft of the present research. All the smart comments that I received there have been precious and I tried to take them all into account, in order to improve my study. That said, I cannot leave aside my family. My parents, Nicolangela and Vittorio, and my brother, Simone who always supported me and did their best to help me realize my dreams. I also want to thank my grandfather, who fostered my passion for politics since I was a kid, as well as my father did. They also brought me to a local party congress when I was seventeen and, in a sense, that was the day when the present research began. To conclude, I want to say thank you to my friends. First of all, my best friend Alessandro, whose voice is the only one I usually listen to; my crew, that will never exit from my life, no matter where we will be; my `group' that leaded me to discover the importance of loyalty while pursuing a common passion. Last, but not least, I want to thank my `Bostonian' friends, i.e., those that hopefully have been reading through these lines: I promise I'll bring you an hard copy, someday. vi Contents List of Figures 1 List of Tables 3 1 Introduction 7 1.1 Why Factions? . .7 1.2 Literature on Intra-party Politics and Party Factions . 12 1.3 Intra-party politics and the Party System . 20 1.4 Where Do Factions Come From? . 23 1.5 How to Allocate Portfolios among Factions? . 24 1.6 Who Sets the Party Line? . 25 1.7 Why Does the Party Break Up? . 25 1.8 Does Intra-party Politics Affect the Party System? . 27 1.9 Outline of the Dissertation . 27 2 Factional Politics: A Theory of Party Unity and Party Fission 29 2.1 Introduction . 29 2.2 A Theory of Party Unity and Party Fission . 30 2.3 The Party Leader Selectorate: Autonomy or Dependence . 49 3 Analyzing Intra-party Politics: The Dataset on the Italian Case 55 vii 3.1 Factional Politics: The Italian Case . 55 3.2 Party Congress Arena: where Factional Bargaining Takes Place 62 3.3 From Words to Fact(ion)s: Measuring Factions' Policy Positions through Wordfish . 70 3.4 Assessing the Validity and the Reliability of the Estimates . 81 3.5 Changes in Political Language and Communication . 89 4 Where Do Factions Come From? The Determinants of Fac- tionalism 101 4.1 Introduction . 101 4.2 The Role of Rules: Party Organization and Intra-party Repre- sentativeness . 102 4.3 The Determinants of Factionalism: Literature and Hypotheses . 104 4.4 Data and Methodology . 113 4.5 Analysis and Results . 119 4.6 The Determinants of Factionalism: Findings . 121 5 Portfolio Allocation among Italian Factions 131 5.1 Introduction . 131 5.2 Intra-party Bargaining over Office Payoffs: Literature and Hy- potheses . 132 5.3 Data and Methodology . 139 5.4 Analysis and Results . 143 5.5 Intra-party Portfolio Allocation: Findings . 153 6 Bounded Oligarchy: Factional Bargaining over Party Position- taking 157 6.1 Introduction . 157 6.2 Who Sets the Party Position: Literature and Hypotheses . 158 viii 6.3 Data and Methodology . 167 6.4 Analysis and Results . 170 6.5 Leader, Factions, and Party Position-taking: Findings . 177 7 The Politics of Fission: Determinants of Faction Breakaway 181 7.1 Introduction . 181 7.2 Factions and Fissions . 182 7.3 Party Unity and Party Fission: Literature and Hypothesis . 186 7.4 Data and Methodology . 198 7.5 Analysis and Results . 207 7.6 The Determinants of Factional Breakaways: Findings . 214 8 Factions, Fissions, and Their Effects on the Party System 221 8.1 Introduction . 221 8.2 A Measure of Intra-party Division . 222 8.3 Policy: Does Factionalism Affect Policy-Making? . 224 8.4 Intra-party Politics and Government Formation . 236 8.5 The Impact of Factions and Fissions on the Electoral Performance247 8.6 Factions, Fissions, and the Party System: Findings . 253 9 Conclusion 255 9.1 Preferences and Rules. What Matters Most? . 255 9.2 Findings and Implications . 267 9.3 Direction for Future Research . 276 A List of Italian Parties with Acronyms and Abbreviations 281 B Factions' Positions and Confidence Intervals 283 Bibliography 295 ix x List of Figures 1.1 The Party System and the Factional System . 21 1.2 Interactions between The Party System and the Factional System 23 2.1 Inter-factional Bargaining as an Ultimatum Game . 36 2.2 Distributive Dynamics with Leader Bounded by Factional Agree- ment................................. 38 2.3 Party Unity and Party Fission Game . 40 2.4 Leader Selectorate and Leader Autonomy . 50 3.1 Factions' Position on the Left-Right Scale in the First and Sec- ond Period (Parties Clustered by Political Family) . 80 3.2 Weighted Mean of Factions' Position within each Party Congress in the First and Second Period (Main Parties Only) . 80 3.3 Kernel Density of Documents Length . 81 3.4 Beta Coefficients and Diagnostic of Words' Estimates (First Pe- riod) . 83 3.5 Beta Coefficients and Diagnostic of Words' Estimates (Second Period) . 84 3.6 First Period. Average Position of Factions over Party . 85 3.7 Second Period. Average Position of Factions over Party . 85 1 3.8 Comparison between Wordfish and Hand-coding Estimates for a Sample of 32 DC Factions . 86 3.9 PSI Shift from Left towards the Centre . 88 3.10 Trajectory from Left to the Centre Made by the Heirs of PCI . 88 3.11 Logged Mean Count of Words related to New Policy Issues. Differences between First and Second Period . 94 3.12 Logged Mean Count of Words related to Political System Changes. Differences between First and Second Period . 95 3.13 Differences in the Logged Mean Count of Words related to Po- litical System Changes . 95 3.14 Logged Mean Count of Words related to Ideology and Person- alization. Differences between First and Second Period . 98 3.15 Logged Mean Count of Words related to the Use of Political Language. Differences between First and Second Period . 100 4.1 Number of Factions (Motions) per Congress . 114 4.2 Effective Number of Factions per Congress . 115 5.1 Distribution of the Share of Minister per Faction . 142 5.2 Faction Share of Ministers as its Seats Share Changes . 147 5.3 Faction Share of Ministers as its Seats Share Changes. Dif- ference between Mainstream (Black) and Non-Mainstream Fac- tions (Gray) . 148 5.4 Marginal Effect of Share of Seats on Share of Ministers as Dis- tance Increases . 150 5.5 Marginal Impact of being the Party Leader Faction on the Share of Ministers as the Margin of Parliamentary Support Retained by Government Parties Growths. Differences between Autonomous (Black) or Bounded Leaders (Gray) . 153 2 6.1 Party Position and Weighted Mean of Factions . 173 6.2 Marginal Impact of GAP on PARTY POSITION as YBE Changes when Leaders are Autonomous . 175 6.3 Marginal Impact of GAP on PARTY POSITION as YBE Changes when Leaders are Bounded .
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