Forecasts and Dekadal Climate Alerts for the Period 11Th to 20Th June 2021

REPUBLIQUE DU CAMEROUN REPUBLIC OF CAMEROON Paix-Travail-Patrie Peace-Work-Fatherland ------OBSERVATOIRE NATIONAL SUR NATIONAL OBSERVATORY LES CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ON CLIMATE CHANGE ------DIRECTION GENERALE DIRECTORATE GENERAL ------

ONACC

www.onacc.cm; [email protected]; Tel : (+237) 693 370 504 / 654 392 529

BULLETIN N° 83

Forecasts and Dekadal Climate Alerts for the Period 11th to 20th June 2021

th 11 June 2021

© NOCC June 2021, all rights reserved Supervision Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC).

Production Team (NOCC) Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC). BATHA Romain Armand Soleil, PhD student and Technical staff, NOCC. ZOUH TEM Isabella, M.Sc. in GIS-Environment and Technical staff, NOCC. NDJELA MBEIH Gaston Evarice, M.Sc. in Economics and Environmental Management. MEYONG René Ramsès, M.Sc. in Physical Geography (Climatology/Biogeography). ANYE Victorine Ambo, Administrative staff, NOCC. MEKA ZE Philemon Raissa, Administrative staff, NOCC. ELONG Julien Aymar, M.Sc. in Business and Environmental law.

I. Introduction This dekadal climate early warning bulletin n°83 is done through the exploitation of spatial data collected from major international centres involved in day-to-day climate science, notably: the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) of the University of Columbia (USA); the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA, USA); AccuWeather (American Weather Forecasting Agency, USA); the African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD); Spatial data from 1979 to 2018, relating to Ocean Surface Temperature (OST) in the Atlantic and Pacific, El- Niño/La Nina episode intensities in the Pacific, rainfall and temperature from local stations. To this end, NOCC would like to express its gratitude to all these international Institutions as well as the DMN for the good will demonstrated in sharing the data. This bulletin highlights the historical climatic conditions from 1979 to 2018, as well as the climatic forecasts for all the five Agro ecological zones of Cameroon, for the period from 11th to 20th June 2021. This early warning brief further underscores the risks, threats and potential impacts expected in the different socio-economic development sectors of Cameroon. It also makes an assessment of the forecasts made for the previous dekad from 1st to 10th June 2021. This dekad from 11th to 20th June 2021 will be characterized by the action of the Monsoon over the national territory.

II. Forecast Summary

II.1. For Temperatures II.1.1. Maximum Temperatures The following localities have a high probability of experiencing an increase in average maximum temperatures compared to historical averages for the same period from 1979 to 2018 and temperatures around the average recorded in the previous dekad. They include: - Ngaoundal, Yimbere, Tibati, Mbakaou and Betare Oya, in the Adamawa Region; - Mbalmayo, Bafia, Akonolinga, Mbandjock, Nanga Eboko, Monatele, Nkoteng, Ngoro and Yoko, in the Centre Region; - Yokadouma, Batouri, Lomie, Bertoua, Abong-Mbang, Ngoyla, Koso, Moloundou, Doume, Mbalam and Belabo, in the East Region; - Ambam, Djoum and Zoetele, in the South Region; - Makam and Foumbot, in the West Region; - Furu Awa, Ako and Audu, in the North West Region; - Idenau and Kumba, in the South West Region; - Loum, Yabassi, Nkondjock, Manjo, Melong, Mbanga, Nkongsamba, Penja, Dizangue, Ndokiti III and Dibombari in the Littoral Region. NB1: This dekad from 11th to 20th June 2021 will be marked by significant risks of heatwave (number of successive days with temperatures between 35°C and 45°C or between 30°C and 35°C) in many localities in the Far North (Kousseri, Waza and Maga) and North (Guider, Dembo, Garoua, Pitoa, Lagdo, Rey- Bouba, Tchollire, Poli and Touboro) Regions II.1.2. Minimum Temperatures The following localities have a high probability of experiencing a decrease in minimum temperatures compared to the historical mean for the same period from 1979 to 2018. They include: - Gamboura, Mokolo and Mora in the Far North region; - Garoua, Rey Bouba, Poli, Guider, Touboro and Tchollire in the North region; - Dota, Ngaoundere, Tignere and Meiganga in the Adamawa region; - Garoua-Boulai and Mambele in the East region; - Lolodorf and Djoum in the South region. NB2: This dekad from 11th to 20th June 2021 will be marked by an increase in the number of days with cold nights in some localities in the West region (Dschang, Bazou, Bafoussam, Mbouda and Bafang), North-West region (Nkambe, Bali, Ndop, Fundong, Bamenda and Santa) and Adamawa region (Ngaoundal, Ngaoundere, Tignere, Meiganga, Banyo, Tibati, Yimbere and Mbakaou) II.2. For Precipitation The period from 11th to 20th June 2021 will be marked by a general increase in rainfall amounts compared to the last dekad over the entire

national territory, including the bimodal rain forest zone despite the gradual onset of the short dry season.

th th NB3: This dekad, from 11 to 20 June 2021 corresponds to:

- the gradual onset of the short dry season in the bimodal rainf forest zone ( Centre, South and East Regions), marked however by heavy rainfall

- the continuation of the rainy season in the Highlands zone (West and North-West Regions), the Monomodal rain forest zone (Littoral and South-West Regions)

and the Guinean High Savannah zone (Adamawa Region)

- the effective start of the rainy season in the Sudano-Sahelian zone (Far-North and North regions). NB4: This dekad from 11th to 20th June 2021 is favourable for the start of the sowing phase in the North Region and the southern part of the Far North.

2 th th III. Climate forecasts for the five agro-ecological zones for the period from 11 to 20 Juin 2021

1) For precipitation e) In the Mono-modal rain forest zone -Rainfall amounts way above those recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th For the dekad from 11th to 20th June 2021, we June 2021 in Eyumojock, Mamfe, Mundemba, Nguti, Muyuka, Kumba, Buea, expect: Tiko, Limbe, Idenau, Bamusso, Dikome Balue and Fontem, in the South-West Region ; a) In the Sudano-Sahelian zone -Rainfall amounts way above those recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th -Rainfall amounts above those recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th June 2021 in June 2021 in Melong, Nkongsamba, Manjo, Loum, Yabassi, Nkondjock, Maroua, Kaele Kousseri, Maga and Bogo, Dibombari, Edea, Mbanga, Penja, Douala, Mouanko and Dizangue in the accompanied by strong winds and lightning in Littoral Region. the Far North Region; -Rainfall amounts above those recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th June 2021 in Guider, Poli, Tchollire, Rey Bouba, Touboro, Dembo, Garoua, Pitoa and Lagdo, accompanied by strong winds and lightning, in the North Region. b) In the Guinean high savannah zone -Rainfall amounts above those recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th June 2021 in Yimbere, Meiganga, Tibati, Banyo, Mbakaou, Ngaoundal and Tignere; way above the mean in Ngaoundere, in the Adamawa Region. (b) (a) c) In the Bimodal rain forest zone - Despite the gradual onset of the short dry season, we expect: -Rainfall amounts above the average recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th June 2021 in Bafia, Obala, Nanga Eboko, Monatele, Eseka, Mbandjock, Akonolinga, Yoko and Ngoro; slightly below the mean in Mbalmayo, Yaounde and Nkoteng, in the Centre Region -Rainfall amounts way above the mean recorded from 1st to 10th June 2021 in Lolodorf, Ebolowa, Campo and Ambam; around the mean in Djoum, Kribi, Zoetele, Akom II, Sangmelima and Nyabizan, in the South Region; -Rainfall amounts above the mean recorded from 1st to 10th June 2021 in Lomie, Belabo, Figure 1: Variations in rainfall amounts during the current dekad (b) compared to that Ngoyla and Abong-Mbang; around the mean recorded during the period June 1-10, 2021 (a) in Bertoua, Molou ndou, Mindourou, Garoua- Source : NOCC, June 2021 Boulai, Yokadouma, Batouri and Betare-Oya, in the East Region. d) In the High plateaux zone th th NB 5: For the dekad from 11 to 20 June 2021, we expect: -Rainfall amounts way above the mean - a gradual onset of the short dry season in the Bimodal Rain recorded from 1st to 10th June 2021 in Forest Zone (Centre, South and East Regions), but marked by Koutaba, Foumban, Foumbot, Tonga and Makam; around the mean in Bafoussam, heavy rainfall; Bafang, Dschang, Batcham, Bazou Mbouda, - a continuation of the rainy season in the Highlands zone (West Bamendjou, Bangangte, Massagam and Bare- and North-West Regions) and the Monomodal Rain Forest zone Bakem in the West Region; -Rainfall amounts way above the mean (Littoral and South-West Regions), the Guinean High Savannah recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th Zone (Adamawa Region); June 2021 in Nwa, Kumbo and Ndop; around - an effective start of the rainy season in the Sudano-Sahelian the mean in Benakuma, Fundong, Nkambe, Zone (Far North and North Regions). Bali, Batibo, Widikum, Wum, Bamenda, Munkep, Santa, Furu Awa, Fungom and Ako, in the North West Region.

2) For Temperatures a) For Maximum Temperatures -around the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Bafoussam, Mbouda, Batcham, Based on the historical mean of average maximum temperatures Foumban, Koutaba, Dschang, Bazou, Bafang, Bangangte and Tonga; above the mean in Foumbot recorded during this dekad over the period from 1979 to 2018, and Makam, in the West Region notably 35.33°C in the Far North Region; 33.07°C in the North -around the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Mundemba, Eyumojock, Bamusso, Region; 29.62°C in the Adamawa Region; 28°C in the Centre Muyuka, Ekondo Titi, Buea, Bakogo, Limbe, Mamfe, Fontem, Nguti and Ekok; above the mean in Region; 28.14°C in the South Region; 28.64°C in the East Region; Idenau and Kumba in the South West Region; 24.8°C in the West Region; 25.42°C in the North-West Region; - above the historical mean in Loum, Yabassi, Nkondjock, Manjo, Melong, Mbanga, Nkongsamba, 26.58°C in the South-West Region and 26.28°C in the Littoral Penja, Dizangue, Ndokiti III, and Dibombari; around the mean in Edea, Ndokama, Mouanko, th th Regi on, for the dekad of 11 to 20 June 2021, we expect Douala, and Baptek, in the Littoral Region. maximum temperatures:

- around the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Maroua, Kaele Kousseri, Maga, Bogo, Waza, Gamboura and Mokolo; below the mean in Makary, Yagoua and Mora, in the Far North Region - around the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Guider, Poli, Tchollire, Rey Bouba, Touboro, Dembo, Garoua, Pitoa and Lagdo, in the North Region - above the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Ngaoundal, Tibati, Yimbere and Mbakaou; below the mean in Meiganga, Dota, Tignere, Mbe and Ngaoundere, in the Adamawa Region; - above the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Mbalmayo, Yoko, Bafia, Akonolinga, Mbandjock, Nanga (a) Eboko, Monatele, Nkoteng, Ngoro; around the mean in Eseka, (b) Obala, Yaounde, Ngambe Tikar, in the Centre Region - above the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Yokadouma, Batouri, Lomie, Bertoua, Abong-Mbang, Ngoyla, Koso, Moloundou, Mbalam, Belabo; around the mean in Betare-Oya, Dimako, Mindourou, Libongo, Mambele and Doume; below the mean in Garoua-Boulai, in the East Region; - above the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Djoum, Ambam, and Zoetele; around the mean in Kribi, Sangmelima, Akom II, Nyabizan, Ebolowa and Lolodorf; below the mean in Campo, in the South Region; - above the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Furu- Awa, Ako and Audu; around the mean in Munkep, Ako, Bali, Figure 2: Variations in average maximum temperatures for the current dekad (b) compared to those registered for the Santa, Ndop, Kumbo, Ndu, Nkambe, Kumbo, Bambalang, same period from 1979 to 2018; (a) (Source: NOCC, June 2021) Fundong, Benakuma, Nwa, Wum and Esu in the North West Region

Based on the difference between the average maximum temperatures - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th June 2021 in recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th June 2021, for the dekad from Benakuma, Esu, Nwa, Bamenda, Bali, Kumbo, Santa, Ndop and Wum; below the 11 to 20 June 2021, we expect maximum temperatures: mean in Audu, in the North West Region - - Below the mean recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th st th - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 1 to 10 June 2021 in June 2021 in Mindif, Maroua, Yagoua and Kaele; around the Bangangte, Foumbot, Bare-Bakem, Bafoussam, Bamendjing, Dschang, Magba, mean in Mora, Maga, Mokolo, Kousseri, Waza, Makary and Bafang, Bazou, Mbouda, Tonga, Makam and Foumban in the West Region. Bogo, in the Far North Region; - - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th June 2021 in Garoua, Lagdo, Pitoa, Poli, Touboro, Rey-Bouba, Tchollire, Dembo, Guider and Touboro, in the North Region - - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th June 2021 in Ngaoundal, Mbe, Kognoli, Banyo, Tignere, Mbakaou, Tibati, Ngaoundere, Yimbere and Nassarao; below the mean in Meiganga, in the Adamawa Region - - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th June 2021 in Lomie, Abong-Mbang, Belabo, Ngoyla, Moloundou, Kongolo, Yokadouma, Batouri, Bertoua; below the mean in Betare-Oya, Garoua-Boulai, Doume, Dimako and Mindourou, in the East Region; (a) (b) - - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th June 2021 in Ngoro, Deuk, Akonolinga, Nanga Eboko, Monatele, Mbandjock, Messondo, Nkoteng, Bafia and Mbalmayo; below the mean in Eseka, Obala, Ngambe Tikar and Yaounde in the Centre Region - - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th June 2021 in Zoetele, Djoum, Nyabizan, Akom II Minkoumou, Ebolowa, Lolodorf, and Ambam; below the mean in Kribi, Campo and Sangmelima, in the South Region; - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th June 2021 in Bamusso, Ekok, Tiko, Nguti, Ekang, Dikome Balue, Fontem and Buea; below the mean in Limbe, Idenau,

Mundemba, Kumba, Eyumojock and Mamfe, in the South West

Region Figure 3: Variation in average maximum temperatures for the dekad from 11th to 20th June 2021 (b) compared st th - - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 1 to 10 to those recorded for the dekad from 1st to 10th June 2021 (a). June 2021 in Loum, Mouanko, Yabassi, Mbanga and Manjo, Source: NOCC, June 2021 Melong, Nkongsamba, Pouma, Ngambe, Yingui, Ndom, Dizangue, Douala, Nyanon and Edea; below the mean in

Ndokama and Baptek, in the Littoral Region; 5

Alerts for maximum temperatures

During this dekad from 11th to 20th June 2021, particular attention should be paid to localities that have a very high probability of experiencing an increase in maximum temperatures compared to their historical averages for the same period from 1979 to 2018. They include: - Ngaoundal, Yimbere, Tibati, Mbakaou and Betare Oya, in the Adamawa Region; - Mbalmayo, Bafia, Akonolinga, Mbandjock, Nanga Eboko, Monatele, Nkoteng, Ngoro and Yoko, in the Centre Region;

- Yokadouma, Batouri, Lomie, Bertoua, Abong-Mbang, Ngoyla, Koso, Moloundou, Doume, Mbalam and Belabo, in the

East Region; - Ambam, Djoum and Zoetele, in the South Region; - Makam and Foumbot, in the West Region; - Furu Awa, Ako and Audu, in the North West Region; - Idenau and Kumba, in the South West Region;

- Loum, Yabassi, Nkondjock, Manjo, Melong, Mbanga, Nkongsamba, Penja, Dizangue, Ndokiti III and Dibombari in the Littoral Region.

b) For Minimum Temperatures - above the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Furu Awa, Ako and Audu; around Based on the historical mean of minimum temperatures the mean in Wum, Nwa, Munkep, Bali, Kumbo, Santa, Bamenda, Ndop and Benakuma in the recorded from 1979 to 2018, notably 25°C in the Far North North West Region; Region; 24°C in the North Region; 20.8°C in the Adamawa - around the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Dikome Balue, Bamusso, Bakogo, Region; 19°C in the Centre Region; 20.7°C in the South Region; Mundemba, Nguti, Dikome Bafaw, Mamfe, Ekang and Eyumojock; above the mean in Idenau, 19.4°C in the East Region; 16.5°C in the West Region; 16.5°C in Tiko, Limbe, Buea and Kumba in the South West Region; the North-West Region; 20.7°C in the South-West Region and - above the historical mean recorded for the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Douala, Edea, 20.2°C in the Littoral Region, for the dekad from 11 to 20 June Mouanko and Baptek; around the mean in Ndokama, Mbanga, Yabassi, Dizangue, Manjo, 2021, we expect minimum temperatures: Penja, Nkongsamba and Loum in the Littoral Region

- Below the historical mean recorded during the same period

from 1979 to 2018 in Gamboura, Mokolo and Mora; around the mean in Waza, Makary, Kousseri, Maroua, Kaele, Maga, Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version). Mindif and Yagoua in the Far North Region; - around the historical mean recorded during the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Pitoa, Dembo and Lagdo; below the mean in Garoua, Rey Bouba, Poli, Guider, Touboro and Tchollire, in the North Region; - below the historical mean recorded during this period from 1979 to 2018 in Dota, Ngaoundere, Tignere and Meiganga; above the mean in Ngaoundal, Tibati, Yimbere, Banyo and Mbakaou, in the Adamawa Region; - above the historical mean recorded during the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Monatele, Ayos, Eseka, Yoko, Nkoteng, (a) (b) Bafia, Mbalmayo, Ngambe Tikar, Nanga Eboko, Obala, Akonolinga and Yaounde, in the Centre Region; - above the historical mean recorded during this period from 1979 to 2018 in Ngoyla, Kozo, Mindourou, Abong-Mbang, Bertoua, Belabo, Lomie, Batouri, Moloundou and Betare Oya; below the mean in Garoua-Boulai and Mambele, in the East Region; - above the historical mean recorded for the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Kribi, Campo, Zoetele, Minkoumou, Ebolowa and Akom II; below the mean in Lolodorf and Djoum; around the mean in Nyabizan and Ambam in the South Region; - around the historical mean recorded during the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Dschang, Bafoussam, Bafang, Mbouda, Figure 4: Variation in average minimum temperatures for the current dekad (11-20 June 2021) (b) compared to Bamendjing, Tonga, Bangangte; above the mean in Foumban, historical averages from 1979 to 2018 (a). Source: NOCC, June 2021 Makam and Foumbot; below the mean in Bazou, in the West Region 7

Based on the difference between the average minimum - around the mean recorded from 1st to 10th June 2021 in Bakogo, Dikombe Bafaw, Ekok, temperatures recorded during the dekad from 1 to 10 June Ekang Tiko, Muyuka, Idenau, Bamusso, Mundemba, Mamfe, Buea, Kumba and Nguti in the th th 2021, for the dekad from 11 to 20 June 2021, we expect South West Region. minimum temperatures: -around the mean recorded from 1st to 10th June 2021 in Mindif, Yagoua, Makary, Kaele, Maga, Kousseri, Maroua and Waza; below the mean in Mora, Bogo and Mokolo in the Far North Region - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th June 2021 in Tchollire, Guider, Poli, Dembo, Garoua, Rey Bouba Pitoa and Lagdo; above the mean in Touboro, in the North Region - around the mean recorded from 1st to 10th June 2021 in Dota, Ngaou Mbol, Mbakaou, Banyo, Tibati, Tignere and Banyo; above the mean in Meiganga and Ngaoundere, in the Adamawa Region - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th June 2021 in Ngambe Tikar, Yaounde, Nanga Eboko, Mbandjock, Ngoro, Akonolinga, Eseka, Monatele, Yoko and Bafia; above the mean in (a) (b) Obala, Mbalmayo and Nkoteng, in the Centre Region - around the mean recorded during the period 1st to 10th June 2021 in Moloundou, Garoua-Boulai, Abong-Mbang, Mindourou, Belabo, Batouri, Betare Oya, Bertoua, Lomie, Ngoyla, Yokadouma and Doume, in the East Region - around the mean recorded from 1st to 10th June 2021 in Ebolowa, Djoum, Ambam, Campo, Kribi, Akom II, Sangmelima and Zoetele; above the mean in Lolodorf, in the South Region; - around the mean recorded from 1st to 10th June 2021 in Dschang, Bazou, Bangangte, Bamendjing, Makam Mbouda, Magba, Bafoussam, Bafang, Tonga, Foumban and Foumbot, in the West Region; - around the mean recorded from 1st to 10th June 2021 in Fundong, Kumbo, Santa, Ndop, Bamenda, Benakuma, Nwa, Munkep, Ako, Furu Awa and Wum; above the mean in Nwa; below the mean in

Audu, in the North West Region ; Figure 4: Variations in minimum temperatures for the current dekad (b) compared to those recorded in the dekad - around the mean recorded from 1st to 10th June 2021 in Penja, from 1st to 10th June 2021 (a). Source: NOCC, June 2021 Ndokama, Edea, Dizangue, Loum, Melong, Manjo, Nkongsamba,

Yabassi, Mouanko, Edea, Douala and Baptek in the Littoral Region;

Alerts for minimum temperatures

During this dekad from 21st to 30th June 2021, particular attention should be paid to the localities that have a very high probability of experiencing a decrease in minimum temperatures compared to its historical values for the same period from 1979 to 2018, which could lead to cold nights. They include:

-Gamboura, Mokolo and Mora, in the Far North region; - Garoua, Rey Bouba, Poli, Guider, Touboro and Tchollire, in the North region;

- Dota, Ngaoundere, Tignere and Meiganga, in the Adamawa region; - Garoua-Boulai and Mambele, in the East region; - Lolodorf and Djoum, in the South region.

IV. Risks and potential impacts on socio-economic sectors

d) In the water and energy sector: a) In the agricultural sector: A high risk of recording cases of: A high risk of: -destruction of plantations in many localities in the Centre, East, South, - falling of electricity transportation poles due to heavy rains South-West and Littoral Regions, due to heavy rains accompanied by strong accompanied by strong winds in the Guinean high savannah zone, the winds . bimodal rain forest zone, the monomodal rain forest zone and the highlands th th NB 6: This dekad from 11 to 20 June 2021 is favourable for the start of the zone; sowing phase in the North Region and the southern part of the Far North region. -the contamination of groundwater, surface water and water catchment b) In the health sector: points by polluted runoff in the Sudano-Sahelian zone, bimodal rain forest A risk of recording cases of: zone, the monomodal rain forest zone, the Guinean high savannah zone and

-water-borne diseases (typhoid, yeast, amoebiasis, dysentery, etc.), due to the the Highlands zone. poor quality of drinking water, in the five agro-ecological zones; -cholera in some settlements of the Sudano-Sahelian zone (Maroua, Mokolo, e) In the environment and biodiversity sector: Maga, Mora, Garoua, Pitoa, etc.), the Bimodal Rainforest zone and the A high risk of recording numerous cases of: - morning fog leading to traffic accidents in many localities in the Centre, Guinean High Savannah zone, due to the contamination of drinking water by polluted run-off water. South and East Regions (bimodal rain forest zone), West and north-west -Respiratory diseases (flu epidemic, coughs, bronchitis, colds, asthma attacks, (Highlands zone) and South-West (monomodal rain forest zone); etc.), in the Monomodal Rainforest Zone, the Bimodal Rainforest Zone, and - floods in the Sudano-Sahelian zone (Maroua, Garoua, Pitoa, Mokolo etc.), the Highlands Zone, due to cold and humidity; the Bimodal Rain Forest zone, the Monomodal Rain Forest zone (Douala, -general pathologies (hypertension, diabetes) as well as people suffering from Nkongsamba etc.) and in some localities to the Southern and Eastern part of obesity and women in menopause as a result of the night heat, in some localities Ngaoundere.; -landslides in some localities in the North-West and West Regions of the five Agro ecological zones multiplication of malaria mosquitoes in the five agro-ecological zones. (Highlands Zone), the Littoral and South-West, due to waterlogging from rain recorded from the beginning of the rainy season, as well as in the mining sites in the Adamawa and East regions. c) For the livestock sector A high risk of recording cases of; f) In the public works sector: • numerous cases of epizootics due to the cold weather during the night in some A risk of recording cases of: localities of the West Region (Dschang, Bazou, Bafoussam, Mbouda and - degradation of roads in the five agro-ecological zones, due to heavy Bafang), North-West Region (Bali, Ndop, Fundong, Bamenda and Santa); rainfall; • cases of loss of livestock by lightning due to stormy rains accompanied by - destruction of bridges and other crossing structures in some localities heavy thunder in the Guinean high savannah zone. of the Highlands zone, the Monomodal Rain Forest zone, the Guinean Cases of loss of livestock through drowning in some localities in the Sudano- High Savannah zone and the Sudano-Sahelian zone due to heavy and Sahelian zone strong rainfall. st th VI. Assessment of climate predictions for the dekad from 1 to 10 June 2021

High Guinean 10 Agro Ecological zones Sudano-Sahelian Bimodal Rain forest High plateau Mono-modal Rain Forest Savannah Regions Far North North Adamawa East Centre South West North West South West Littoral Minimum temperatures Historic mean from 1979 to 2018(°C) 25 24 20,8 19,4 19 20,7 16,5 16,5 20,7 20,2

Trend forecasts Success rates of Forecasts (%) 80,3 81 87,1 83,5 80 83 84,2 85 80,6 85 Maximum temperatures Historic mean from 1979 to 2018(°C) 36,18 34,04 30,36 28,78 27,81 28 28,5 25,7 27,13 25,7 Trend forecasts ≈ ≈ Forecasts success rates (%) 87,3 85,3 83 83,5 80,5 87 87,9 84,1 84,1 81,6 Precipitation Historic mean from 1979 to 0-60 61-81 82-101 102-121 122-200 201-210 211-240 241-260 261-300 301-350 2018(mm) Trend forecasts ≈ ≈

Forecasts success rates (%) 100 100 98 100 100 100 98,6 100 100 100

Around the mean ≈ ; = Reduction; = Increase

VII. Some recommendations

It is recommended within this period to:

In the Agriculture sector: Plan agricultural activities, notably the sowing phase in the Guinean High Savannah Zone, and maintenance in the south regions of the country with reference to the agricultural calendar produced by NOCC for the 2021 Agricultural season.

In the health sector, continue to ▪ raise public awareness on the need to strictly respect basic hygiene and sanitation rules (washing food items, filtering drinking water and cooking food before consumption in households, use of latrines, etc.); ▪ avoid the accumulation of household waste in the vicinity of dwellings; ▪ Dress warmly to protect yourself from cold; ▪ encourage the population to sleep under mosquito nets; ▪ strengthen community health surveillance to ensure rapid investigation and speedy management of suspicious cases of diseases (cholera) in order to take care of them. ▪ continue vaccination campaigns against various epidemics and pandemics.

In the water and energy sector, to continue: ▪ regular sampling, analysis and treatment of drinking water at catchment points and water supply points before distribution to households; ▪ regular use of basic techniques (filtering, boiling, etc.) to make drinking water potable at household level; ▪ the replacement of defective (wooden) electricity transportation poles.

For more information, contact, www.onacc.cm P.O. Box: 35414 Building no 1220, Street no 1793, Bastos, Yaounde, Cameroon Tel. (237) 222-209-504/222-209-500 e-mail: [email protected]