REPUBLIQUE DU CAMEROUN REPUBLIC OF CAMEROON Paix-Travail-Patrie Peace-Work-Fatherland ----------- ----------- OBSERVATOIRE NATIONAL SUR NATIONAL OBSERVATORY LES CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ON CLIMATE CHANGE ----------------- ----------------- DIRECTION GENERALE DIRECTORATE GENERAL ----------------- ----------------- ONACC www.onacc.cm; [email protected]; Tel : (+237) 693 370 504 / 654 392 529 BULLETIN N° 83 Forecasts and Dekadal Climate Alerts for the Period 11th to 20th June 2021 th 11 June 2021 © NOCC June 2021, all rights reserved Supervision Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC). Production Team (NOCC) Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC). BATHA Romain Armand Soleil, PhD student and Technical staff, NOCC. ZOUH TEM Isabella, M.Sc. in GIS-Environment and Technical staff, NOCC. NDJELA MBEIH Gaston Evarice, M.Sc. in Economics and Environmental Management. MEYONG René Ramsès, M.Sc. in Physical Geography (Climatology/Biogeography). ANYE Victorine Ambo, Administrative staff, NOCC. MEKA ZE Philemon Raissa, Administrative staff, NOCC. ELONG Julien Aymar, M.Sc. in Business and Environmental law. I. Introduction This dekadal climate early warning bulletin n°83 is done through the exploitation of spatial data collected from major international centres involved in day-to-day climate science, notably: the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) of the University of Columbia (USA); the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA, USA); AccuWeather (American Weather Forecasting Agency, USA); the African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD); Spatial data from 1979 to 2018, relating to Ocean Surface Temperature (OST) in the Atlantic and Pacific, El- Niño/La Nina episode intensities in the Pacific, rainfall and temperature from local stations. To this end, NOCC would like to express its gratitude to all these international Institutions as well as the DMN for the good will demonstrated in sharing the data. This bulletin highlights the historical climatic conditions from 1979 to 2018, as well as the climatic forecasts for all the five Agro ecological zones of Cameroon, for the period from 11th to 20th June 2021. This early warning brief further underscores the risks, threats and potential impacts expected in the different socio-economic development sectors of Cameroon. It also makes an assessment of the forecasts made for the previous dekad from 1st to 10th June th th 2021. This dekad from 11 to 20 June 2021 will be characterized by the action of the Monsoon over the national territory. II. Forecast Summary II.1. For Temperatures II.1.1. Maximum Temperatures The following localities have a high probability of experiencing an increase in average maximum temperatures compared to historical averages for the same period from 1979 to 2018 and temperatures around the average recorded in the previous dekad. They include: - Ngaoundal, Yimbere, Tibati, Mbakaou and Betare Oya, in the Adamawa Region; - Mbalmayo, Bafia, Akonolinga, Mbandjock, Nanga Eboko, Monatele, Nkoteng, Ngoro and Yoko, in the Centre Region; - Yokadouma, Batouri, Lomie, Bertoua, Abong-Mbang, Ngoyla, Koso, Moloundou, Doume, Mbalam and Belabo, in the East Region; - Ambam, Djoum and Zoetele, in the South Region; - Makam and Foumbot, in the West Region; - Furu Awa, Ako and Audu, in the North West Region; - Idenau and Kumba, in the South West Region; - Loum, Yabassi, Nkondjock, Manjo, Melong, Mbanga, Nkongsamba, Penja, Dizangue, Ndokiti III and Dibombari in the Littoral Region. NB1: This dekad from 11th to 20th June 2021 will be marked by significant risks of heatwave (number of successive days with temperatures between 35°C and 45°C or between 30°C and 35°C) in many localities in the Far North (Kousseri, Waza and Maga) and North (Guider, Dembo, Garoua, Pitoa, Lagdo, Rey- Bouba, Tchollire, Poli and Touboro) Regions II.1.2. Minimum Temperatures The following localities have a high probability of experiencing a decrease in minimum temperatures compared to the historical mean for the same period from 1979 to 2018. They include: - Gamboura, Mokolo and Mora in the Far North region; - Garoua, Rey Bouba, Poli, Guider, Touboro and Tchollire in the North region; - Dota, Ngaoundere, Tignere and Meiganga in the Adamawa region; - Garoua-Boulai and Mambele in the East region; - Lolodorf and Djoum in the South region. NB2: This dekad from 11th to 20th June 2021 will be marked by an increase in the number of days with cold nights in some localities in the West region (Dschang, Bazou, Bafoussam, Mbouda and Bafang), North-West region (Nkambe, Bali, Ndop, Fundong, Bamenda and Santa) and Adamawa region (Ngaoundal, Ngaoundere, Tignere, Meiganga, Banyo, Tibati, Yimbere and Mbakaou) II.2. For Precipitation The period from 11th to 20th June 2021 will be marked by a general increase in rainfall amounts compared to the last dekad over the entire national territory, including the bimodal rain forest zone despite the gradual onset of the short dry season. th th NB3: This dekad, from 11 to 20 June 2021 corresponds to: - the gradual onset of the short dry season in the bimodal rainf forest zone ( Centre, South and East Regions), marked however by heavy rainfall - the continuation of the rainy season in the Highlands zone (West and North-West Regions), the Monomodal rain forest zone (Littoral and South-West Regions) and the Guinean High Savannah zone (Adamawa Region) - the effective start of the rainy season in the Sudano-Sahelian zone (Far-North and North regions). NB4: This dekad from 11th to 20th June 2021 is favourable for the start of the sowing phase in the North Region and the southern part of the Far North. 2 th th III. Climate forecasts for the five agro-ecological zones for the period from 11 to 20 Juin 2021 1) For precipitation e) In the Mono-modal rain forest zone st th -Rainfall amounts way above those recorded during the dekad from 1 to 10 For the dekad from 11th to 20th June 2021, we June 2021 in Eyumojock, Mamfe, Mundemba, Nguti, Muyuka, Kumba, Buea, expect: Tiko, Limbe, Idenau, Bamusso, Dikome Balue and Fontem, in the South-West Region ; a) In the Sudano-Sahelian zone -Rainfall amounts way above those recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th -Rainfall amounts above those recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th June 2021 in June 2021 in Melong, Nkongsamba, Manjo, Loum, Yabassi, Nkondjock, Maroua, Kaele Kousseri, Maga and Bogo, Dibombari, Edea, Mbanga, Penja, Douala, Mouanko and Dizangue in the accompanied by strong winds and lightning in Littoral Region. the Far North Region; -Rainfall amounts above those recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th June 2021 in Guider, Poli, Tchollire, Rey Bouba, Touboro, Dembo, Garoua, Pitoa and Lagdo, accompanied by strong winds and lightning, in the North Region. b) In the Guinean high savannah zone -Rainfall amounts above those recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th June 2021 in Yimbere, Meiganga, Tibati, Banyo, Mbakaou, Ngaoundal and Tignere; way above the mean in Ngaoundere, in the Adamawa Region. (b) (a) c) In the Bimodal rain forest zone - Despite the gradual onset of the short dry season, we expect: -Rainfall amounts above the average recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th June 2021 in Bafia, Obala, Nanga Eboko, Monatele, Eseka, Mbandjock, Akonolinga, Yoko and Ngoro; slightly below the mean in Mbalmayo, Yaounde and Nkoteng, in the Centre Region -Rainfall amounts way above the mean recorded from 1st to 10th June 2021 in Lolodorf, Ebolowa, Campo and Ambam; around the mean in Djoum, Kribi, Zoetele, Akom II, Sangmelima and Nyabizan, in the South Region; -Rainfall amounts above the mean recorded from 1st to 10th June 2021 in Lomie, Belabo, Figure 1: Variations in rainfall amounts during the current dekad (b) compared to that Ngoyla and Abong-Mbang; around the mean recorded during the period June 1-10, 2021 (a) in Bertoua, Molou ndou, Mindourou, Garoua- Source : NOCC, June 2021 Boulai, Yokadouma, Batouri and Betare-Oya, in the East Region. d) In the High plateaux zone th th NB 5: For the dekad from 11 to 20 June 2021, we expect: -Rainfall amounts way above the mean - a gradual onset of the short dry season in the Bimodal Rain recorded from 1st to 10th June 2021 in Forest Zone (Centre, South and East Regions), but marked by Koutaba, Foumban, Foumbot, Tonga and Makam; around the mean in Bafoussam, heavy rainfall; Bafang, Dschang, Batcham, Bazou Mbouda, - a continuation of the rainy season in the Highlands zone (West Bamendjou, Bangangte, Massagam and Bare- and North-West Regions) and the Monomodal Rain Forest zone Bakem in the West Region; -Rainfall amounts way above the mean (Littoral and South-West Regions), the Guinean High Savannah recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th Zone (Adamawa Region); June 2021 in Nwa, Kumbo and Ndop; around - an effective start of the rainy season in the Sudano-Sahelian the mean in Benakuma, Fundong, Nkambe, Zone (Far North and North Regions). Bali, Batibo, Widikum, Wum, Bamenda, Munkep, Santa, Furu Awa, Fungom and Ako, in the North West Region. 3 2) For Temperatures a) For