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Baken Denise.Pdf An Analysis of the Potential Direct or Indirect Influence Exerted by an Al Qaeda Social Network Actor on Future Biological Weapon Mission Planning A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy at George Mason University By Denise N. Baken Master of Science Central Michigan University, 1992 Director: Arnauld Nicogossian, Professor Department of Public Policy Fall Semester, 2007 George Mason University Fairfax, VA Copyright 2007 Denise N. Baken All Rights Reserved ii DEDICATION This is dedicated to my family in recognition of their understanding and support. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to thank Drs. Arnauld Nicogossian, Maksim Tsvetovat and Susan Tolchin for their invaluable mentoring and guidance. I would also like to extend my appreciation to Dr. Maricela Medina for her constant counsel and encouragement. In addition I would like to thank the many friends, family, coworkers, and supporters who assisted me. My son and daughter, Richard and Christian, aided studying and test preparation. My husband, Tim, provided opportunity for focused dissertation preparation. My sister Carrie Jasper offered sustenance. And a tremendous thank you to the Center for Innovative Technology for providing an extremely supportive environment and work from home capability. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS Page List of Tables ..................................................................................................................... vi List of Figures................................................................................................................... vii Abstract.............................................................................................................................. ix 1. Introduction..................................................................................................................... 1 2. Background..................................................................................................................... 6 Past Declarations of Jihad............................................................................................... 6 The Changing Face of Terrorism.................................................................................. 18 3. Methodology................................................................................................................. 31 Literature Review.......................................................................................................... 31 Survey- External Evaluations ....................................................................................... 36 Social Network Analysis............................................................................................... 36 4. Results........................................................................................................................... 41 Literature Review.......................................................................................................... 41 Business Management Study Results ........................................................................... 51 Social Network Analysis Results.................................................................................. 65 5. Discussion................................................................................................................... 111 Hypothesis: Questions and Answers........................................................................... 111 Rationale for Approach and Implications of Results.................................................. 113 Al Qaeda Terrorism Business Management ............................................................... 114 Terrorism Management Survey Analysis ................................................................... 125 Terrorism Social Network Analysis: Computational Organization............................ 133 Building a Superstruct - Putting It All Together......................................................... 134 Type of WMD Attack ................................................................................................. 137 CI_Index Derived Potential al Qaeda WMD Strategy................................................ 141 Al Qaeda Decision Making......................................................................................... 148 Mission Planning Behavior......................................................................................... 150 6. Conclusion .................................................................................................................. 154 WMD Potential ........................................................................................................... 154 Suggested Pro-Active Approach for United States..................................................... 155 Suggested US Action - Respond Like al Qaeda ......................................................... 157 Contributions of the Study and Suggested Focus of Future Research........................ 158 List Of References .......................................................................................................... 277 v LIST OF TABLES Table Page 1. Al Qaeda Internal/External Audiences ...................................................................... 23 2. Network Meta-Matrix ................................................................................................ 48 3. Agent_CI_Index_WMD Position .............................................................................. 83 4. Agent_CI_Index_WMD_Organizations.................................................................... 88 5. Al Qaeda Value Function......................................................................................... 116 6. Strength -Weakness-Opportunity-Threat Analysis Matrix....................................... 127 7. Strength -Weakness-Opportunity-Threat Analysis Matrix....................................... 129 8. Audience Relationship Matrix ................................................................................. 131 9. Al Qaeda Management Survey SWOT Matrix........................................................ 132 10. Biological Agents Researched by al Qaeda............................................................. 138 11. Chemical Agents Researched by al Qaeda .............................................................. 139 12. Biological Agent Dissemination Criteria................................................................. 140 13. CI_Index-WMD....................................................................................................... 141 vi LIST OF FIGURES Figure Page 1. Example of Key Word Identifiers Used in the Literature Search............................. 34 2. Flowchart of Relevant Data Selection and Bibliography Development................... 35 3. Likert Scale of Business Practice Assessment.......................................................... 57 4. Definitions of Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats................................. 58 5. Criteria for Classifying Analysts as Potential Terror Expert.................................... 59 6. Chi-Square Results for Management Practices Hypothesis...................................... 61 7. Al Qaeda Management Practices by Respondent Business Experience................... 62 8. Events Identified for Study Inclusion ....................................................................... 72 9. Role Identification .................................................................................................... 73 10. Organizations to Which Open Source Documentation Associated Actors............... 74 11. Associates’ Relationship........................................................................................... 75 12. Betweenness of Top 15 out of 232 ........................................................................... 77 13. Closeness of Top 15 out of 232 ................................................................................ 77 14. Betweenness of Top 15 out of 81 Al Qaeda Network Actors................................... 78 15. Closeness of Top 15 out of 81 Al Qaeda Network Actors ....................................... 79 16. Centrality, Eigenvector for 16 Al Qaeda Network Core........................................... 81 17. Centrality, Eigenvector, Geodesic for Al Qaeda Network Core............................... 82 18 . Al Qaeda 16 Node Planners Network ....................................................................... 91 19. Al Qaeda 16 Node Planners’ CI_Index Model......................................................... 91 20. Al Qaeda 16 Node Planner Network CI_Index with Triads..................................... 92 21. 16 Agent Al Qaeda Network CI_Index Minimum Reconnection ............................ 93 22. ORA Generated Stylized Scale Free for Al Qaeda 16 Node Planner Network ........ 94 23. 232 Node Al Qaeda Network.................................................................................... 95 24. 232 Node Al Qaeda Network with Geodesic............................................................ 96 25. 232 Node Al Qaeda Network with Agent-Geodesic Relationship and CI_Index .... 97 26. 81 Node Al Qaeda Network...................................................................................... 98 27. 81 Al Qaeda Node Network with Geodesic.............................................................. 99 28. 81 Node Al Qaeda Network with Geodesic and CI_Index...................................
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