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The Global Liquefied Natural Gas Market: Status & Outlook

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The Global Liquefied Natural Gas Market: Status & Outlook DOE/EIA-0637 (2003) The Global Liquefied Natural Gas Market: Status & Outlook December 2003 Energy Information Administration U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 This report was prepared by the Energy Information Administration, the independent statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. The information contained herein should be attributed to the Energy Information Administration and should not be construed as advocating or reflecting any policy position of the Department of Energy or of any other organization. Energy Information Administration/ The Global Liquefied Natural Gas Market: Status and Outlook 75 76 Energy Information Administration/ The Global Liquefied Natural Gas Market: Status and Outlook Contacts This report was prepared by a task force with staff from the Office of Energy Markets and End Use, the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting and the Office of Oil and Gas (Natural Gas Division). Specific questions about the report should be referred to Janice Poling (202/586-3823) or the following analysts. International data and statistics Karen Griffin (202/586-1357) International Energy Statistics Division Office of Energy Markets and End Use International price data Bruce Bawks (202/586-6579) International, Economic, and Greenhouse Gases Division Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting Country analysis and information Lowell Feld (202/586-9502) Energy Markets and Contingency Information Division Office of Energy Markets and End Use U.S. data and analysis Damien Gaul (202/586-2073) Natural Gas Division Office of Oil and Gas Forecasts Jim Kendell (202/586-9646) Phyllis Martin (202/586-9592) Oil and Gas Division Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting Company names and information Robert Schmitt (202/586-8644) Energy Markets and Contingency Information Division Office of Energy Markets and End Use Significant contributors to the report also include Colleen Sen, Senior LNG Advisor, Gas Technology Institute, and Jim Jensen, President, Jensen Associates, Inc. Other members of the EIA task force include Aloulou Fawzi, Barbara Mariner-Volpe, Mark Rodekohr, Gregory Priddy, and William Trapmann. EIA welcomes comments and updated information. Please address your comments and updates to Janice Poling ([email protected], 202/586-3823). Energy Information Administration/ The Global Liquefied Natural Gas Market: Status and Outlook 77iii 78 Energy Information Administration/ The Global Liquefied Natural Gas Market: Status and Outlook Preface Liquefied natural gas (LNG) is expected to play an increasingly important role in the natural gas industry and global energy markets in the next several years. The combination of higher natural gas prices, lower LNG costs, rising gas import demand, and the desire of gas producers to monetize their gas reserves is setting the stage for increased global LNG trade. The Global Liquefied Natural Gas Market: Status & Outlook was undertaken to characterize the global LNG market and to examine recent trends and future prospects in the LNG market. A variety of information and data was used in the compilation of this report. Sources included U.S. government sources (EIA and the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Fossil Energy); intergovernmental sources (the International Energy Agency); private sources (Petrostrategies, LNG Shipping Solutions, the Oil and Gas Journal, the International Institute of Energy Economics, BP, the LNG Express, the Groupe International des Importateurs de Gaz Natural Liquefie, and Cedigaz); and industry trade reports. The global nature of the LNG market is such that no single information source provides a complete and thorough characterization. Information sources are listed throughout the report. Energy Information Administration/ The Global Liquefied Natural Gas Market: Status and Outlook 79v 80 Energy Information Administration/ The Global Liquefied Natural Gas Market: Status and Outlook Contents Contacts .................................................................................................... iii Preface ...................................................................................................... v Overview ................................................................................................... 1 What is Liquefied Natural Gas? .................................................................... 3 Abundant World Natural Gas Reserves and LNG Potential ............................. 4 Growing World LNG Trade ........................................................................... 6 LNG Exporters ............................................................................................ 8 Pacific Basin Exporters ......................................................................................... 10 Middle East Exporters .......................................................................................... 12 Atlantic Basin Exporters ....................................................................................... 14 Potential New LNG Exporters .............................................................................. 16 LNG Importers .......................................................................................... 17 Pacific Basin Importers ........................................................................................ 19 Atlantic Basin Importers ...................................................................................... 22 Potential New LNG Importers .............................................................................. 24 United States: LNG Activity Expanding ....................................................... 25 Current United States LNG Facilities ................................................................... 26 United States LNG Expansion .............................................................................. 27 United States Natural Gas and LNG Outlook to 2010 ........................................... 28 United States Natural Gas and LNG Outlook: Beyond 2010 ................................. 29 World LNG Shipping Capacity Expanding.................................................... 30 World LNG Market Structure ...................................................................... 32 Atlantic and Pacific Basins Differ ......................................................................... 34 LNG Pricing Around the World ............................................................................ 35 Atlantic and Pacific Basin LNG Pricing ................................................................ 36 Recent Market Changes: Contracts and Pricing ................................................... 38 Recent Market Changes: Growth of the Short-Term Market ................................ 40 LNG Industry Costs Declining .................................................................... 42 Liquefaction Costs ................................................................................................ 43 Shipping Costs ...................................................................................................... 44 Regasification Terminal Costs .............................................................................. 46 Energy Information Administration/ The Global Liquefied Natural Gas Market: Status and Outlook 81vii Sources ..................................................................................................... 47 APPENDIX A Conversion Tables.......................................................................... 48 APPENDIX B Liquefaction and Regasification Capacity Measurements ............. 49 APPENDIX C LNG 2002 Trade Data ..................................................................... 50 APPENDIX D Summary Liquefaction Table......................................................... 51 APPENDIX E Summary Regasification Table....................................................... 52 APPENDIX F Existing LNG Liquefaction Plants .................................................. 53 APPENDIX G LNG Liquefaction Capacity Under Construction .......................... 55 APPENDIX H Proposed LNG Liquefaction Capacity ............................................ 57 APPENDIX I Existing LNG Regasification Terminals ......................................... 60 APPENDIX J LNG Regasification Capacity Under Construction ........................ 62 APPENDIX K Proposed LNG Regasification Capacity.......................................... 64 APPENDIX L LNG Tanker Fleet ........................................................................... 66 APPENDIX M Companies Based in the United States .......................................... 71 APPENDIX N Selected Private Companies Based Outside the United States ...... 72 APPENDIX O State-Owned Companies ................................................................ 73 82viii Energy Information Administration/ The Global Liquefied Natural Gas Market: Status and Outlook Overview The global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market is small but growing rapidly… k The combination of higher natural gas prices, lower LNG production costs, rising gas import demand, especially in North America, and the desire of gas producers to monetize their gas reserves is setting the stage for increased LNG trade in the years ahead. k In 2002, 12 countries shipped 5.4 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of natural gas, which is equivalent to 113 million metric tons of LNG – up from 9 exporting countries shipping less than 4 Tcf (84 million metric tons)
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