July 2020 THE PANDEMIC IN MEXICO The Scope of the Tragedy VITAL SIGNS (SIGNOS VITALES) is a non-profit, non governmental organization that is structured by a Council built up of people with an outstanding track record, with high ethical and professional level, which have national and international recognition and with a firm commitment to democratic and freedom principles. The Council is structured with an Executive Committee, an Advisory Committee of Specialists and a Communication Advisory Committee, and an Executive Director coordinates the operation of these three Committees. One of the main objectives is the collection of reliable and independent informa- tion on the key variables of our economic, political and sociocultural context in order to diagnose, with a good degree of certainty, the state where the country is located. Vital Signs intends to serve as a light to show the direction that Mexico is taking through the dissemination of quarterly reports, with a national and international scope, to alert society and the policy makers of the wide variety of problems that require special attention. Weak or absent pulse can have many causes and represents a medical emergency. The more frequent causes are the heart attack and the shock condition. Heart attack occurs when the heart stops beating. The shock condition occurs when the organism suffers a considerable deterioration, which causes a weak pulse, fast heartbeat, shallow breathing and loss of consciousness. It can be caused by different factors. Vital signs weaken and you have to be constantly taking the pulse. EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE María Amparo Casar Enrique Cárdenas* Julio Frenk María Elena Morera Federico Reyes Heroles Jorge Suárez Vélez Duncan Wood Jaime Zabludovsky Carlos Lascurain Executive Director and Prosecretary ¶¶ *President 2020-2023 ADVISORY COMMITTEE SPECIALISTS Juan Carlos Belausteguigoitia Lourdes Melgar José Ramón Cossío Alfonso Mendoza Salomón Chertorivsky Manuel Molano Luis De la Calle Valeria Moy Carlos Elizondo Mayer-Serra José Antonio Polo Oteyza Luis Foncerrada Pascal Alejandro Poiré Ricardo Fuentes Nieva Francisco Rivas Rogelio Gómez Hermosillo Hernán Sabau Luis Raúl González Pérez Lisa Sánchez Eduardo González Pier José Sarukhan Kermez Tonatiuh Guillén Sylvia Schmelkes Carlos Heredia Carlos Serrano H. Gonzalo Hernández Licona Eduardo Sojo Alejandro Hope Francisco Suárez Dávila Carlos Hurtado Miguel Székely María Eugenia Ibarrarán Graciela Teruel Edna Jaime Luis Carlos Ugalde Carlos Mancera Lorenza Martínez Trigueros ¶¶ TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 8 » Status of the economy before the health crisis 50 FIRST PART » The global context and the oil collapse 53 » Different countries response to the pandemic THE PANDEMIC IN MEXICO: MANAGEMENT AND IMPACT 12 55 INTRODUCTION 13 » The Mexican answer 57 The federal government and Bank of 1. THE MANAGEMENT OF THE PANDEMIC 16 Mexico 57 Initial government reaction 18 State governments 63 The government narrative 23 Civil society and the private sector 64 The health strategy 25 2. IMPACTS OF THE PANDEMIC UNTIL APRIL-MAY 2020 69 » The role of WHO and recommendations in The health impact 70 general and for Mexico 25 The economic impact 76 » The Mexican strategy 29 The impact on labor and poverty 83 The Sentinel Model 29 The impact on the education sector 90 Sampling 32 Domestic violence and depression during the pande- The confusion of the figures 34 mic 95 Lack of foresight and protests 36 Remittances and migration from The United States Communication campaign 44 of America 100 Social sector reactions to the pandemic The return to the "new normal" 102 47 The economic strategy 50 3. PANORAMA POST COVID-19. A FINAL THOUGHT 106 SECOND PART ALERTS: CONDITIONS REQUIRING IMMEDIATE ATTENTION 122 BUDGETARY HYPERPRESIDENTIALISM A latent tumor 123 FISCAL FEDERALISM The fight for budgetary power 133 MILITARIZATION AND PUBLIC SAFETY Another failed surgery 146 THE CONTROL OVER THE PUBLIC EXPRESSION A chronic illness 163 TRUSTS An operation with a machete instead of a scalpel 177 WELLNESS CENSUS, ORIGINALLY BIASED A diagnosis without specialists 183 EDUCATION IN THE TIMES OF COVID-19 The system in the emergency room 189 MIGRATION CONTAINMENT Serious Human Rights violations 207 THE ECONOMY IN A CRITICAL CONDITION The collapse of employment 222 THE COST OF UPHOLDING PEMEX Human lives and the environment 248 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Report THE PANDEMIC OF COVID-19 IN MEXICO, but especially those that have to do with the design THE SCOPE OF THE TRAGEDY, contains two parts. The of economic and social policy programs to confront it. first shows an analysis of the management and short- Unfortunately, the government narrative has been term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico, characterized by contradictory messages between while the second refers to a diagnosis of issues that, the President of the Republic and the authorities of due to their importance, significance, and the urgent the Ministry of Health. The first underestimating the need for attention within the current context in the danger and consequences of the epidemic in Mexi- country, we have called them Vital Signs Alerts. co, and the second offering protection measures The first response of the Mexican government to the that were not even addressed by the President. This COVID-19 pandemic was to downplay it, which resul- made it evident that many of these sanitary measu- ted in neither the Mexican health system nor the po- res were improvised and poorly designed due to the pulation being prepared to face this disease in what lack of budgetary support, or the necessary policies refers mainly to its seriousness and lethality, to the for effective coordination between federal govern- measures of health, hygiene, and social coexistence; ment entities or those of state governments. THE PANDEMIC IN MEXICO :: 8 The federal government’s strategy has been to mo- lemma between improving health and avoiding unne- nitor the pandemic through sampling, allowing herd cessary deaths, and reactivating economic activity as contagion, indicating that the case fatality rate was soon as possible to avoid serious social consequen- very low, considering at all times the contradictory ces, would be faced. The government’s response to tradeoff between health and economics. Thus, mas- the pandemic was weak, late, and segmented. The sive tests would not be applied to identify sources response to the sanitary and economic proposals of of contagion or isolation mechanisms for those who the very diverse groups, institutions, and specialists were infected and their recent contacts, considering was an emphatic no. Thus, the government and the it expensive and useless. In the same way, social country were caught in the dilemma of improving sa- distancing measures would not be applied strictly, nitation or improving economics. nor was action taken in time to avoid the spread of Economically and socially, the outlook is just as de- contagion. It was considered that doing so would be solate. Economic activity is forecast to contract at an attempt against the economic activity, so the go- least 8% in 2020 and to recover very slowly in 2021 vernment refused to grant income to people to stay and subsequent years. The fall in industrial activity at home. This is where health versus economic di- and a good part of services such as hotels and res- lemma has been. Without that support for families, taurants (with a lot of employment) have collapsed. it was impossible for millions of people to observe According to INEGI (National Institute of Statistics social distancing. and Geography for its acronym in Spanish), on April There were strong and varied voices that recommen- 12 million people stopped having incomes for various ded measures to provide emergency income to the reasons; The Institute for Equity Studies of the Uni- population in the informal market, temporarily share versidad Iberoamericana estimates that by the end the cost of formal payroll among employers, workers, of 2020 there will be close to 95 million people in po- and the government, apply countercyclical macroeco- verty, with greater food deficiency, and it is women nomic measures to avoid the collapse of economic and children who bear the greatest weight of the cri- activity and design measures that would allow us to sis. Family violence has multiplied, as has food scar- get out of the crisis quickly. In this way, the false di- city. Therefore, poverty and inequality in Mexico are THE PANDEMIC IN MEXICO :: 9 getting even worse since April and will continue in anchored, fundamentally, in the disproportionality the coming months and years. of the fiscal system and the political control that the Federal Executive achieves thanks to the budget. The forecasts of various research institutes on the number of deaths from the first wave of the pande- 3. Militarization and public safety. The security stra- mic put it at least 45,000, and in some scenarios, it tegy with military support was initiated by the can reach 80,000 and even more than 100,000 peo- Felipe Calderón government and maintained and ple killed by COVID-19. The economic situation will replicated by the Enrique Peña Nieto government. be a prolonged recession. Poverty and inequality, al- Although the current administration promised to ready very serious in 2018, will continue to be a cons- return the armed forces to their barracks, the new tant in our country, probably worsened, for the next security strategy does the opposite. few years. 4. Control over public expression. The violence cou- pled with the fight against organized crime took The second part of the Report presents ten Signos Vi- with it the lives of many journalists who were si- tales (Vital Signs) Alerts that are summarized below. lenced along the way. During this government, vio- 1. Budgetary hyper-presidentialism. President lence against journalists and attacks by the media López Obrador has sought to concentrate his dis- on the media continues. The federal government cretionary power to exercise the federal budget.