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SICKENED MEXICO with Signs of a Totalitarian Regime

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SICKENED MEXICO with Signs of a Totalitarian Regime SICKENED MEXICO with signs of a Totalitarian Regime October 2020 SICKENED MEXICO :: 1 SICKENED MEXICO :: 2 VITAL SIGNS (SIGNOS VITALES) is a non-profit, non governmental organization that is structured by a Council built up of people with an outstanding track record, with high ethical and professional level, which have national and international recognition and with a firm commitment to democratic and freedom principles. The Council is structured with an Executive Committee, an Advisory Committee of Specialists and a Communication Advisory Committee, and an Executive Director coordinates the operation of these three Committees. One of the main objectives is the collection of reliable and independent informa- tion on the key variables of our economic, political and sociocultural context in order to diagnose, with a good degree of certainty, the state where the country is located. Vital Signs intends to serve as a light to show the direction that Mexico is taking through the dissemination of quarterly reports, with a national and international scope, to alert society and the policy makers of the wide variety of problems that require special attention. Weak or absent pulse can have many causes and represents a medical emergency. The more frequent causes are the heart attack and the shock condition. Heart attack occurs when the heart stops beating. The shock condition occurs when the organism suffers a considerable deterioration, which causes a weak pulse, fast heartbeat, shallow, breathing and loss of consciousness. It can be caused by different factors. Vital signs weaken and you have to be constantly taking the pulse. EXECUTIVE Committee María Amparo Casar Enrique Cárdenas* Julio Frenk María Elena Morera Federico Reyes Heroles Jorge Suárez Vélez Duncan Wood Carlos Lascurain Executive Director and Prosecretary *President 2020-2023 ¶¶ ADVISORY COMMITTEE SPECIALISTS Juan Carlos Belausteguigoitia Gonzalo Hernández Licona Alejandro Poiré José Ramón Cossío Alejandro Hope Francisco Rivas Salomón Chertorivsky Carlos Hurtado Hernán Sabau Luis De la Calle María Eugenia Ibarrarán José Sarukhan Kermez Carlos Elizondo Mayer-Serra Edna Jaime Sylvia Schmelkes Luis Foncerrada Pascal Carlos Mancera Carlos Serrano H. Ricardo Fuentes Nieva Lorenza Martínez Trigueros Eduardo Sojo Rogelio Gómez Hermosillo Lourdes Melgar Francisco Suárez Dávila Luis Raúl González Pérez Alfonso Mendoza Miguel Székely Eduardo González Pier Manuel Molano Graciela Teruel Tonatiuh Guillén Valeria Moy Luis Carlos Ugalde Carlos Heredia José Antonio Polo Oteyza ¶¶ TABLE of Contents Executive Summary . 10 General introduction . 15 FIRST PART Section 1 Diagnosis of the country state . 20 1 Steps towards totalitarianism, symptoms of a sick democracy . 22 2 A lost decade is on the horizon, economic outlook. 39 3 What medium-term social effects will the COVID-19 crisis bring? . 68 If we are “so well”, why is everything so wrong? . 74 Lessons from the handling of the pandemic . .78 Education in Mexico: A topic from a social perspective . 80 Final considerations . 82 SICKENED MEXICO :: 7 Section 2 Pandemic evolution in México and impact . 86 1 Management of the pandemic in the “New normalcy” . 87 2 The effect in the economy reached the bottom in May and is recovering slowly.. 100 3 Wellness deteriorated: loss of income and food concerns . 120 Final considerations . 127 second part Amputation of government capabilities: public servants at risk . 130 Institutional destruction: A self-inflicted injury to the state . 140 A new virus: New powers for the armed forces that do not correspond to them . 154 Petróleos Mexicanos La devastadora patología que enfrenta el país . 168 Business closure: el imparable contagio de cierre de empresas . 185 Emergencia en el Sector Educación Un Programa Sectorial sin signos vitales . 205 Ceguera gubernamental en los Programas Sociales Lo que no se ve del proyecto de la 4T . .222 “...today it is no longer enough, to tell the truth; moreover, lies must be destroyed, starting with those big lies that are manufactured with small truths and which are the worst lies, because they have the taste of truth”. Javier Cercas Spanish writer SICKENED MEXICO :: 9 EXECUTIVE Summary Mexico is experiencing the worst political, health, pandemic’s management. The second part presents and economic crisis in its modern history. Indica- seven alerts that, due to their importance, require ur- tors show that Mexico is heading towards becoming gent attention from the authorities, as well as a call a one-man country, mired in economic depression for attention from society. and with an increasingly impoverished, divided, and Mexican democracy, with unequal society, without eradicating corruption, The text indicates how all its imperfections, is threatened by the Execu- much less impunity. tive. The concentration of power from the Presidency The objective of the report “Sick Mexico: Indications has been accompanied by a series of legislative mo- of a Totalitarian Regime” is to demonstrate this si- difications to acquire at least nine legal capacities, tuation through the use of reliable information and among which are: the budgetary reorientation, the accurate and timely indicators. The document is prosecution of crimes of ordinary jurisdiction through composed of two parts; the first one recounts the the National Guard, and the domain extinction under country’s standing in terms of governance, economy, discretionary conditions. and social aspects; showing timely monitoring of the SICKENED MEXICO :: 10 Regarding the budget, only in 2019, 128 thousand it will be at the level we had in 2010. The collapse 960 million Mexican pesos were allowed to be in public and private investment, which began at the exercised at discretion. It is expected that on this end of 2018, is currently at the level of 16 years ago path, the President will dispose of around 140 billion (October 2004), which allows a glimpse of the reduc- Mexican pesos in 2020. On the other hand, the Exe- tion in future economic growth. The closure of almost cutive has assigned the Armed Forces 13 complemen- half a million businesses, the loss of just under half tary task. Hence its budget increased by more than of the income of two out of three households during 220 thousand million Mexican pesos due to the sin- the pandemic, the indebtedness of families, and un- gle construction of one of its 2020 projects. certainty in the future will prevent a rapid economic recovery. We are facing a lost decade. The decrease in constitutional counterweights is sum- med to the attacks on the media, journalists, and opi- The social impact is also devastating, and its nion leaders who disagree with the government. From ravages are already being felt. Hundreds of thou- March to April, 39 assaults were registered against sands of families have lost a relative, and the return journalists and the media covering issues related to of millions of people to the labor market does not the pandemic; 74.4% of the attacks come from the represent a return to their average income level. By State. An increasing intolerance from the President is July, 4 out of 10 people who were of working age fa- perceived, and red flags have been lifted on a regi- ced unemployment, and more than 4 million people me that shows signs of totalitarianism. These had not eligible to work, were not even looking for a job. Only been seen in Mexico in more than a century. 27% of the population have the peace of mind that they will obtain food, while 30% of adults have high Heightened by the catastrophic blow of the COVID-19 anxiety levels. pandemic, the economy is experiencing the worst crisis on record. A fall in GDP of almost 10% is fo- recasted in 2020 and a prolonged recovery for the fo- llowing years. Economic activity in 2020 will be simi- lar to that recorded in 2014, and in per capita terms, SICKENED MEXICO :: 11 The impact of COVID-19 has led to poverty to more pital conversion to attend the pandemic seems to than 12 million people, and the middle and upper be successful (on September 26th, only 38% of the classes have suffered decreases in their quality of life. beds were occupied and 34% of beds with respira- tory support), 42.5% of the total deaths in Mexico In terms of insecurity, the incidence of crime re- were recorded during the first four days after being mains high. The homicides registered in the June-July admitted to a hospital and 86% after 15 days. Thus, bimester increased by almost 1% compared to the hospital occupation will hardly be saturated. Also, previous bimester, but the femicides in that same pe- 48% of the people infected with COVID-19 that enter riod increased by nearly 20% compared to April-May an Intensive Care Unit (ICU) die. 2020. In the Global Impunity Index (IGI-2020), Mexico is ranked in the 60th place out of 69 countries. Health workers remain very vulnerable. With a cut- off until the end of August, about 100,000 cases of Regarding the management of the health crisis, infected health personnel and 1,320 deaths were the scenario is equally catastrophic. As of Sep- confirmed. Of this number of deaths, 49% refer to tember 26th, there are more than 76 thousand offi- medical personnel, 30% to other workers in the sec- cially registered deaths. Given the underreporting, tor, and 17% to nurses, where Mexico City, Puebla, already widely documented, the number of deaths di- Veracruz, and Tabasco are the entities with the hi- rectly or indirectly related to COVID-19 is around 230 ghest number of deaths. We estimate that the num- thousand people, which places Mexico in worldwide ber of deaths of health personnel for September fourth place in absolute numbers and eleventh place 16th would be more than 1,500, representing 2.04% per million inhabitants. of all deaths, and by December 31st, this number Health spending since 2012 has shown a decline would rise to 2,936 deaths.
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