The Political Culture of Democracy in Mexico and in the Americas, 2018/19: Taking the Pulse of Democracy

Total Page:16

File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb

The Political Culture of Democracy in Mexico and in the Americas, 2018/19: Taking the Pulse of Democracy The Political Culture of Democracy in Mexico and in the Americas, 2018/19: Taking the Pulse of Democracy By Vidal Romero, Ph.D. ITAM Pablo Parás, Ph.D. Georgetown University and Data Opinión Pública y Mercados Georgina Pizzolitto LAPOP Coordinator of Special Studies and Report Editor Vanderbilt University Elizabeth J. Zechmeister, Ph.D. LAPOP Director and Series Editor Vanderbilt University May 2020 This study is made possible by the support of the American People through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The contents of this study are the sole responsibility of the authors and LAPOP and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government. Table of Contents Table of Contents List of Figures and Tables ....................................................................................................................................... v Preface .......................................................................................................................................................................... ix Introduction to the 2018/19 AmericasBarometer ...................................................................................... xi Acknowledgements .............................................................................................................................................. xiii I. Introduction .................................................................................................................................. 1 II. Main Findings ............................................................................................................................. 4 III. Basic Tenets of Electoral Democracy ................................................................................. 4 Support for Democracy in the Abstract ...................................................................... 5 Rules of the Game: Tolerance of Military Coups ...................................................... 9 Tolerance of Executive Coups ..................................................................................... 13 IV. Evaluation of Democracy ...................................................................................................... 16 Satisfaction with Democracy ....................................................................................... 17 Democratic Status of Political System ...................................................................... 20 V. Conclusion ................................................................................................................................ 22 Appendix ......................................................................................................................................... 24 I. Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 25 II. Main Findings ........................................................................................................................... 27 III. System Support ...................................................................................................................... 28 IV. Specific Institutions and Actors ......................................................................................... 33 V. Political Tolerance .................................................................................................................. 38 VI. Dimensions of Democratic Legitimacy ............................................................................. 41 VII. Conclusion .............................................................................................................................. 44 Appendix ......................................................................................................................................... 46 I. Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 49 II. Main Findings ........................................................................................................................... 50 III. How Widely Used Are Social Media? ................................................................................. 51 IV. Who Uses Social Media? ...................................................................................................... 55 V. How Frequently Do They Use Social Media? ................................................................... 55 VI. Political Engagement on Social Media ............................................................................. 60 VII. Social Media Use and Political Attitudes ........................................................................ 63 Page | iii Political Culture of Democracy in Mexico, 2018/19 VIII. Conclusion ............................................................................................................................ 70 Appendix .......................................................................................................................................... 71 I. Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 75 II. Key Findings ............................................................................................................................. 76 III. Extortion in Mexico ............................................................................................................... 76 IV. Negative Impact of Extortion on the Evaluation of the Government and Democratic Regime ................................................................................................................ 78 Impact of Extortion ........................................................................................................ 82 V. Conclusion ................................................................................................................................ 86 I. Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 89 II. Key Findings ............................................................................................................................. 90 III. Trust in the Armed Forces and Presidential Approval ................................................. 90 IV. Support in Mexico for Military Coups .............................................................................. 97 V. Support in Mexico for Presidential Coups ........................................................................ 99 VI. Factors Associated with Executive Coups ..................................................................... 105 VII. Epilogue: The 2018-2019 Climate of Public Opinion in Mexico .............................. 109 VIII. Conclusion ........................................................................................................................... 113 I. Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 115 II. Key Findings ............................................................................................................................ 116 III. Personal Experiences with Corruption ............................................................................ 117 IV. Justification. Do Mexicans Believe that Corruption Is Justifiable? .......................... 125 V. Perception. How Much Corruption Do Mexicans Perceive Among Political Elites? ....................................................................................................................................... 130 VI. Conclusion .............................................................................................................................. 135 Appendices .................................................................................................................................... 137 References ................................................................................................................................................................143 Appendices ................................................................................................................................................................ 153 Appendix A. Understanding Figures in this Study .............................................................. 155 Appendix B. Study Information Sheet .................................................................................... 157 Appendix C. Questionnaire ...................................................................................................... 159 Page | iv List of Figures and Tables List of Figures and Tables Figure 1.1. State of Democracy in the LAC-18 Region ................................................................................... 3 Figure 1.2. Cross-National Support for Democracy ...................................................................................... 6 Figure 1.3. Support for Democracy and the Level of Democracy ............................................................... 7 Figure 1.4. Support for Democracy, Mexico, 2004-2019 .............................................................................. 8 Figure 1.5. Demographic and Socio-Economic Correlates of Support for Democracy, Mexico 2019 .......................................................................................................................................................
Recommended publications
  • MEXICO Dengue Fever
    MEXICO Dengue Fever Briefing note – 16 September 2019 Since the beginning of 2019, a regional epidemic cycle of dengue has broken out in Latin American and the Caribbean. According to the government, as of 2 September, Mexico has 11,593 confirmed cases of dengue, including 798 cases of severe dengue. However, the total number of probable cases is expected to be much higher by the end of 2019. 70% of the cases are primarily within five of Mexico’s provinces: Chiapas, Jalisco, Veracruz, Oaxaca, and Quintana Roo (GoM 02/09/2019) Veracruz de Ignacio de la Llave (Veracruz) a state with a population of over 8.1 million, has the highest total number of dengue (3,234) (GoM 02/09/2019 GoV 2017). As of 31 August, Veracruz has 3,234 confirmed cases of dengue, including 82 cases of severe dengue, and 2 confirmed deaths (GoM 02/09/2019). This number is already higher than the figure for the entirety of 2018 for Veracruz, which had 2,239 cases of dengue and 95 cases of severe dengue (GoM 12/2018). Given that the rainy season is expected to continue until October, this number could continue to increase. Incident rate of Dengue Fever across Mexico States (GoM 02/09/2019) Anticipated scope and scale Key priorities Humanitarian constraints The Government of Mexico predicts there will be 74,200 There are no access constraints directly + 2.1M probable cases of dengue by the end of 2019. In 2018 there related to the dengue fever outbreak. children living Veracruz were roughly 25,000.
    [Show full text]
  • Social Panorama of Latin America 2019
    2019 Social Panorama of Latin America Thank you for your interest in this ECLAC publication ECLAC Publications Please register if you would like to receive information on our editorial products and activities. When you register, you may specify your particular areas of interest and you will gain access to our products in other formats. www.cepal.org/en/publications ublicaciones www.cepal.org/apps Alicia Bárcena Executive Secretary Mario Cimoli Deputy Executive Secretary Raúl García-Buchaca Deputy Executive Secretary for Management and Programme Analysis Laís Abramo Chief, Social Development Division Rolando Ocampo Chief, Statistics Division Paulo Saad Chief, Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Centre (CELADE)- Population Division of ECLAC Mario Castillo Officer in Charge, Division for Gender Affairs Ricardo Pérez Chief, Publications and Web Services Division Social Panorama of Latin America is a publication prepared annually by the Social Development Division and the Statistics Division of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), headed by Laís Abramo and Rolando Ocampo, respectively, with the collaboration of the Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Centre (CELADE)-Population Division of ECLAC, headed by Paulo Saad, and the Division for Gender Affairs of ECLAC, under the supervision of Mario Castillo. The preparation of the 2019 edition was coordinated by Laís Abramo, who also worked on the drafting together with Alberto Arenas de Mesa, Catarina Camarinhas, Miguel del Castillo Negrete, Ernesto Espíndola, Álvaro Fuentes, Carlos Maldonado Valera, Xavier Mancero, Jorge Martínez Pizarro, Marta Rangel, Rodrigo Martínez, Iskuhi Mkrtchyan, Iliana Vaca Trigo and Pablo Villatoro. Ernesto Espíndola, Álvaro Fuentes, Carlos Howes, Carlos Kroll, Felipe López, Rocío Miranda and Felipe Molina worked on the statistical processing.
    [Show full text]
  • Militarization, Organized Crime, and Democratic Challenges in Mexico
    RESEARCH & ANALYSIS Militarization, Organized Crime, and Democratic Challenges in Mexico Roberto Zepeda, Jonathan D. Rosen and Thiago Rodrigues Introduction This paper examines the nexus between corruption, weak institu- tions, drug trafficking, and organized crime in Mexico. (Morris 2012; Zepeda, Rosen 2019). Historical legacy has determined the current events of contemporary Mexico, which is characterized by a transition from an authoritarian to a democratic regime (Velasco 2012). Despite its transition to democracy, Mexico has been plagued by high levels of corruption and impunity. This article utilizes data and qualitative analysis to examine the trends in corruption and insecurity as well as lack of trust in institutions. This chapter also analyzes organized crime in Mexico and how the country’s war on drugs has resulted in increases in violence and insecurity. Our main argument is that the PENSAMIENTO PROPIO 51 PENSAMIENTO 233 Militarization, Organized Crime, and Democratic Challenges in Mexico militarization of public safety, especially since Calderón’s administra- tion (2006-2012), and tough on crime policies in general have failed to address the underlying institutional challenges that the country faces connecting corruption, organized crime and political institutions. Democratization and Corruption: Fragile Institutions According to the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNO- DC), corruption is a complex social, political and economic phenom- enon that affects all countries, as it undermines democratic institu- tions, hinders economic development, and contributes to government instability. Corruption, according to the UNODC, attacks the basis of democratic institutions by distorting electoral processes, perverting the rule of law, and creating bureaucratic obstacles whose only reason for existence is to ask for bribes.
    [Show full text]
  • NAFTA in the Time of AMLO
    NACLA Report on the Americas ISSN: 1071-4839 (Print) 2471-2620 (Online) Journal homepage: https://www.tandfonline.com/loi/rnac20 NAFTA in the Time of AMLO Rebecca Watts To cite this article: Rebecca Watts (2019) NAFTA in the Time of AMLO, NACLA Report on the Americas, 51:1, 9-12, DOI: 10.1080/10714839.2019.1593681 To link to this article: https://doi.org/10.1080/10714839.2019.1593681 Published online: 29 Mar 2019. Submit your article to this journal Article views: 1 View Crossmark data Full Terms & Conditions of access and use can be found at https://www.tandfonline.com/action/journalInformation?journalCode=rnac20 AROUND THE REGION Rebecca Watts NAFTA in the Time of AMLO What does NAFTA 2.0 mean for Mexican president Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s reform agenda? exico is making a fortune on NAFTA... Mexico, the United States and Canada), or T-Mec. Whatever “ With all of the money they make from its name, it was signed on November 30, and, at the time of the U.S., hopefully they will stop people writing, is awaiting ratification in all three countries. from coming through their country and Version 2.0 largely includes the same terms as the intoM ours,” President Donald Trump tweeted this past April. original. But what is new is the recently-elected president of Since the beginning of his campaign and throughout his Mexico, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (frequently referred presidency, Trump has sought to channel the resentment to as AMLO), who has previously spoken out strongly that many U.S. workers feel toward the North American against NAFTA—though that criticism has softened in Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), painting Mexicans as recent years—who continues to condemn a failed neoliberal “bad hombres” that set the terms of the trade pact to benefit economic model, and whose election holds the promise of a Mexico at the expense of the United States.
    [Show full text]
  • The Future of Pemex: Return to the Rentier-State Model Or Strengthen Energy Resiliency in Mexico?
    THE FUTURE OF PEMEX: RETURN TO THE RENTIER-STATE MODEL OR STRENGTHEN ENERGY RESILIENCY IN MEXICO? Isidro Morales, Ph.D. Nonresident Scholar, Center for the United States and Mexico, Baker Institute; Senior Professor and Researcher, Tecnológico de Monterrey March 2020 © 2020 by Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy This material may be quoted or reproduced without prior permission, provided appropriate credit is given to the author and Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy. Wherever feasible, papers are reviewed by outside experts before they are released. However, the research and views expressed in this paper are those of the individual researcher(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the Baker Institute. Isidro Morales, Ph.D “The Future of Pemex: Return to the Rentier-State Model or Strengthen Energy Resiliency in Mexico?” https://doi.org/10.25613/y7qc-ga18 The Future of Pemex Introduction Mexico’s 2013-2014 energy reform not only opened all chains of the energy sector to private, national, and international stakeholders, but also set the stage for Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) to possibly become a state productive enterprise. We are barely beginning to discern the fruits and limits of the energy reform, and it will be precisely during Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s administration that these reforms will either be enhanced or curbed. Most analysts who have justified the reforms have highlighted the amount of private investment captured through the nine auctions held so far. Critics of the reform note the drop in crude oil production and the accelerated growth of natural gas imports and oil products.
    [Show full text]
  • Monarch News January/February 2020
    Monarch News January/February 2020 CEO’s Executive Summary Although the new USMCA awaits approval by the Canadian Parliament, it surmounted its toughest hurdle in the U.S. Congress late last year, allowing us to begin this newsletter on matters other than U.S.-Mexico relations for the first time since the middle of last year. The Mexican economy fell into a shallow recession in 2019, even as wages for average Mexicans increased. The outlook for 2020 is not much better, with independent growth estimates ranging from 0.5% to 1.5%. This is due to continuing high interest rates, low business confidence, and challenges at Pemex where AMLO appears unlikely to accept the reopening of private sector auctions or Pemex farmouts this year. This raises questions about the national oil company’s ability to avoid a downgrade of its bonds to junk, despite having stabilized production by the end of 2019. The sluggish economy also raises questions about the government’s broader capacity to sustain its social welfare programs and infrastructure projects while also protecting the fiscal stability that President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) so highly values. At the same time, the messy rollout of the new Institute for Health and Well-Being (INSABI) – designed to make primary and secondary health services free to all Mexicans – and Washington, D.C. | Los Angeles | Mexico City | Monterrey www.monarch-global.com new criticism of AMLO’s three-airport solution to Mexico City’s air transport problems, continue to raise questions about the viability of AMLO’s signature programs. Taking advantage of still sky-high approval, AMLO is pressing Congress to complete work on the legislative components of his “fourth transformation” program for Mexico.
    [Show full text]
  • MORENA and Mexico's Fourth Historical Transformation
    ARTICLE MORENA and Mexico’s Fourth Historical Transformation by Gerardo Otero | Simon Fraser University | [email protected] On July 1, 2018, Mexico elected a left-of-center root causes that make the ruling class turn to president for the first time since Lázaro Cárdenas repression, said Abel Barrera Hernández, of the was elected in 1934. Andrés Manuel López Obrador Tlachinollán Center for Human Rights in the (AMLO) and his National Regeneration Movement highlands of Guerrero State. He therefore contested (MORENA) won the elections by a landslide, with the proposition that “the struggle for human rights 53.2 percent of the vote and 64.3 percent citizen is the axis of all struggle” because their violation is participation, winning a majority in both chambers merely a symptom. Yet, concrete responses and of Congress. The mandate is therefore quite strong. solutions are needed. The new government must Significantly, both Congress and the cabinet have respect and promote human rights, said Father gender parity, a first for any Latin American country. Miguel Concha, acknowledged as the dean of the Given the importance of these elections, Diálogos human rights struggle. He posited the indivisibility por la Democracia at the National Autonomous of three aspects of human rights. First, transitional University of Mexico (UNAM) organized a three- justice, which should be accessible to all in order day conference in November 2018 to analyze to avoid revictimization. Spaces from the bottom the challenges for the new government, which up should become available. Second, we need a promised a “fourth transformation” for Mexico. paradigm shift in security and to stay away from The first historical transformation was Mexico’s militarization.
    [Show full text]
  • The Value of TRUTH a Third of the Way
    The value of TRUTH A third of the way MARCH 2021 THE VALUE OF TRUTH :: 1 https://www.elmundo.es/america/2013/01/08/mexico/1357679051html Is a non-profit, non governmental organization thats is structured by a Council built up of people with an outstanding track record, with high ethical and pro- fessional level, which have national and international recognition and with a firm commitment to democratic and freedom principles. The Council is structured with an Executive Committee, and Advisory Committee of Specialists and a Comunication Advisory Committee, and a Executive Director coordinates the operation of these three Committees. One of the main objectives is the collection of reliable and independent informa- tion on the key variables of our economic, political and sociocultural context in order to diagnose, with a good degree of certainty, the state where the country is located. Vital Signs intends to serve as a light to show the direction that Mexico is taking through the dissemination of quarterly reports, with a national and international scope, to alert society and the policy makers of the wide variety of problems that require special attention. Weak or absent pulse can have many causes and represents a medical emergency. The more frequent causes are the heart attack and the shock condition. Heart attack occurs when the heart stops beating. The shock condition occurs when the organism suffers a considerable deterioration, wich causes a weak pulse, fast heartbeat, shallow, breathing and loss of consciousness. It can be caused by different factors. Vital Signs weaken and you have to be constantly taking the pulse.
    [Show full text]
  • Protest for a Future II
    Protest for a future II Composition, mobilization and motives of the participants in Fridays For Future climate protests on 20-27 September, 2019, in 19 cities around the world Edited by Joost de Moor, Katrin Uba, Mattias Wahlström, Magnus Wennerhag, and Michiel De Vydt Table of Contents Copyright statement ......................................................................................................................... 3 Summary........................................................................................................................................... 4 Introduction: Fridays For Future – an expanding climate movement ................................................. 6 Background ................................................................................................................................... 7 Description of the survey collaboration and the survey methodology ............................................ 8 Age, gender and education .......................................................................................................... 11 Mobilization networks ................................................................................................................. 15 Emotions ..................................................................................................................................... 19 The “Greta effect” ....................................................................................................................... 23 Proposed solutions to the climate problem
    [Show full text]
  • Monarch News August 21, 2020
    Monarch News August 21, 2020 A Note from the Editorial Team With the unprecedented challenges created by the COVID-19 context, a different approach to the Monarch newsletter seems more appropriate to your needs. Rather than bimonthly, the new newsletter will appear more regularly, usually monthly, and it will be more focused and analytic with less emphasis on recapping the news. It is designed to give you a better sense of the most important developments in Mexico and their political, economic and business implications. We hope you enjoy this new format. CEO’s Executive Summary Recent events show that Mexico’s president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) is in a strong position politically despite the very difficult public health and economic situation in the country. These events also highlight once again AMLO’s deep-seeded nationalism, especially with regard to the energy sector, and his persistent mistrust of the private sector. But they also reveal a president whose actions are still tempered from time-to-time by a significant dose of pragmatism. Washington, D.C. | Los Angeles | Mexico City | Monterrey www.monarch-global.com I. COVID-19 and the Economy Mexico has registered nearly 60,000 deaths from COVID-19, the third highest national figure in the world. But even this number is estimated to be half to one-third of the real number because so many sick Mexicans prefer (and indeed have been encouraged by the president) to remain at home instead of going to the hospital. As a result, their malady does not add to the COVID-19 totals, even when this is the cause of their sickness and death.
    [Show full text]
  • The-Political-And-Social-Implications
    SPECIAL REPORT April 2, 2020 We are a consulting firm specializing in political risk, social conflict and strategic planning. This is a public version of a special report sent to Integralia’s clients For more imformation regarding our products and services, please contact [email protected] April 2, 2020 POLITICAL AND SOCIAL IMPLICATIONS OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC IN MEXICO Introduction 1. Government Capacity to Manage the Crisis a. The state of the health sector and public finances b. Government response to COVID-19 2. The economic and social impact of the crisis a. The 2008 experience as a reference b. The magnitude of the recession c. Government reaction d. How will the country emerge from this recession? 3. Social unrest a. Social protest b. Social polarization 4. Public security a. Public security and territory control b. The role of the Armed Forces 5. Legal certainty 6. Political consequences a. Drop in the president's approval ratings b. Impact on the financial sustainability of the Fourth Transformation's political project c. Weakening of the credibility of the government's project d. Distancing and eventual rupture in the relations between the business sector and the government 7. Short- and medium-term political risk scenarios 2 April 2, 2020 INTRODUCTION As of April 1, 1,378 cases and 37 deaths of COVID-19 had been confirmed in Mexico. Last Saturday, for the first time, the government made an urgent call for people to stay indoors. López Obrador’s administration anticipates a peak in infections after April 18. Authorities estimate that more than 250,000 people could be infected, and 10,528 of them would require intensive care.
    [Show full text]
  • Preliminary Injunction Is an “Extraordinary Remedy That May Only Be Awarded Upon a Clear Showing That the Plaintiff Is Entitled to Such Relief.” Winter V
    Case 3:19-cv-01743-SI Document 95 Filed 11/26/19 Page 1 of 48 IN THE UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT FOR THE DISTRICT OF OREGON JOHN DOE #1; et al., Case No. 3:19-cv-1743-SI Plaintiffs, OPINION AND ORDER v. DONALD TRUMP, et al., Defendants. Stephen Manning and Nadia Dahab, INNOVATION LAW LAB, 333 SW Fifth Avenue, Suite 200, Portland, OR 97204; Karen C. Tumlin and Esther H. Sung, JUSTICE ACTION CENTER, PO Box 27280, Los Angeles, CA 90027; Scott D. Stein and Naomi Igra, SIDLEY AUSTIN LLP, One South Dearborn Street, Chicago IL 60603. Of Attorneys for Plaintiffs. Joseph H. Hunt, Assistant Attorney General; Billy J. Williams, United States Attorney for the District of Oregon; August E. Flentje, Special Counsel; William C. Peachey, Director, Office of Immigration Litigation; Brian C. Ward, Senior Litigation Counsel; Courtney E. Moran, Trial Attorney; U.S. DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE, PO Box 868, Ben Franklin Station, Washington D.C., 20044. Of Attorneys for Defendants. Michael H. Simon, District Judge. On October 4, 2019, the President of the United States issued Proclamation No. 9945, titled “Presidential Proclamation on the Suspension of Entry of Immigrants Who Will Financially Burden the United States Healthcare System” (the “Proclamation”). The question presented in this case is not whether it is good public policy to require applicants for immigrant PAGE 1 – OPINION AND ORDER AILA Doc. No. 19103090. (Posted 11/26/19) Case 3:19-cv-01743-SI Document 95 Filed 11/26/19 Page 2 of 48 visas to show proof of health insurance before they may enter the United States legally, as the President directed in the Proclamation.
    [Show full text]