Decision-Making Under Ambiguity and Time Constraints Assessing the Multiple-Streams Framework
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Decision-Making under Ambiguity and Time Constraints Assessing the Multiple-Streams Framework Edited by Reimut Zohlnhöfer and Friedbert W. Rüb © Reimut Zohlnhöfer and Friedbert W. Rüb 2016 First published by the ECPR Press in 2016 The ECPR Press is the publishing imprint of the European Consortium for Political Research (ECPR), a scholarly association, which supports and encourages the training, research and cross-national co-operation of political scientists in institutions throughout Europe and beyond. ECPR Press Harbour House Hythe Quay Colchester CO2 8JF United Kingdom All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers. Typeset by Lapiz Digital Services Printed and bound by Lightning Source British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library ISBN: 978-1-785521-25-6 PDF ISBN: 978-1-785521-67-6 EPUB ISBN: 978-1785521-68-3 KINDLE ISBN: 978-1-785521-69-0 www.ecpr.eu/ecprpress ECPR Press Series Editors: Peter Kennealy (European University Institute) Ian O’Flynn (Newcastle University) Alexandra Segerberg (Stockholm University) Laura Sudulich (University of Kent) You may wish to explore the following ECPR Press titles on political theory: Concepts and Reason in Political Theory Iain Hampsher-Monk A selection of Hampsher-Monk’s writings on questions of historicity and rationality in political theory, with a substantial new introduction. The work revolves around two loci: the relationship between history and philosophy in the analysis of key concepts such as liberty, democracy and toleration, and the role of reason in political science’s explanations. Despite a background in PPE, the author played a major role in the ‘historical’ revolution in political theory and his contributions to and reflections on this are included in the volume. ISBN: 9781907301704 Varieties of Political Experience Gianfranco Poggi The management of contemporary public affairs involves many different centres of social power, engaged in complex and mutable relations, ranging from willing co-operation, to competition, to out-and-out conflict. This book emphasises the role played in these relations by political institutions in particular. But it also considers the relations between politics at one end, and law, the public sphere, citizenship, and religion at the other. ISBN: 9781907301759 Choice, Rules and Collective Action: The Ostroms on the study of institutions and governance Elinor Ostrom and Vincent Ostrom Edited by Filippo Sabetti and Paul Dragos Aligica Key works by Elinor Ostrom, co-recipient of the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences, and Vincent Ostrom, one of the originators of public-choice political economy. The selection represents the main analytical and conceptual vehicles articulated by the Ostroms to create the Bloomington School of Public Choice. The Ostroms’ endeavours sought to ‘re-establish the priority of theory over data collection and analysis’ and to better integrate theory and practice. ISBN: 9781910259139 Please visit www.ecpr.eu/ecprpress for up-to-date information about new and forthcoming publications. Table of Contents List of Figures and Tables vii List of Abbreviations ix Contributors xi Preface xv Chapter One – Introduction: Policy-Making under Ambiguity and Time Constraints 1 Reimut Zohlnhöfer and Friedbert W. Rüb PART ONE – THE THEORETICAL ASSUMPTIONS OF THE MULTIPLE-STREAMS FRAMEWORK 19 Chapter Two – Lost in Translation: Re-conceptualising the Multiple-Streams Framework Back to its Source of Inspiration 21 Harald Sætren Chapter Three – Clear Enough To Be Proven Wrong? Assessing the Influence of the Concept of Bounded Rationality within the Multiple-Streams Framework 35 Johanna Kuhlmann Chapter Four – Agenda-Setting and Policy-Making in Time: What the Multiple-Streams Approach Can Tell Us – and What It Cannot 51 Friedbert W. Rüb PART TWO – THE ELEMENTS OF THE MULTIPLE-STREAMS FRAMEWORK 71 Chapter Five – Kingdon à la Carte: A New Recipe for Mixing Stages, Cycles, Soups and Streams 73 Michael Howlett, Allan McConnell and Anthony Perl Chapter Six – Refining the Idea of Focusing Events in the Multiple-Streams Framework 91 Thomas A. Birkland and Megan K. Warnement vi Decision-Making under Ambiguity and Time Constraints Chapter Seven – Framing the Problem: Knowledge-Brokers in the Multiple-Streams Framework 109 Åsa Knaggård Chapter Eight – Clarifying the Concept of Policy-Communities in the Multiple-Streams Framework 125 Nicole Herweg Chapter Nine – Political Leadership, Multiple Streams and the Emotional Endowment Effect: A Comparison of American and Greek Foreign Policies 147 Nikolaos Zahariadis PART THREE – THE APPLICABILITY OF THE MULTIPLE-STREAMS FRAMEWORK IN PARLIAMENTARY AND MULTI-LEVEL SYSTEMS 167 Chapter Ten – How Well Does the Multiple-Streams Framework Travel? Evidence from German Case Studies 169 Reimut Zohlnhöfer and Christian Huß Chapter Eleven – The Expulsion of the Smokers from Paradise: A Multiple-Streams Analysis of German Non-Smoker-Protection Legislation 189 Iris Reus Chapter Twelve – Crisis Policy-Making: Traceable Processes of Multiple Streams 213 Dan Hansén Chapter Thirteen – Reinterpreting the Multiple-Streams Framework from a Process Approach: Decision-Making and Policy-Shift in Public Health Management in Catalonia, 2003–7 231 Raquel Gallego, Nicolás Barbieri and Sheila González Chapter Fourteen – Path-Departing Labour-Market Reforms in the United Kingdom and Sweden: An Analysis Combining the Multiple-Streams Framework and Historical Institutionalism 251 Florian Spohr Index 271 List of Figures and Tables Figures Figure 6.1: Conceptual map of focusing-event theory 97 Figure 6.2: Documentary sources for narrative policy analysis: key sources and subjects of policy-discourse in domains prone to focusing events 103 Figure 8.1: Number of representative offices of natural gas and electricity sector at European level 136 Figure 8.2: Number of meetings of Madrid Forum attended by participants I 140 Figure 8.3: Number of meetings of Madrid Forum attended by participants II 140 Tables Table 2.1: Decision streams as conceptualised by Cohen, March and Olsen (1972) and Kingdon (1984) 24 Table 2.2: Core theoretical concepts related to two versions of MS framework 25 Table 2.3: Implications of decision and access structures following from three ideal-typical organisational structures in GC model 25 Table 2.4: Patterns of activation and definition processes and how they affect likelihood of three types of organisational decision-models. 26 Table 3.1: Results of analysis 45 Table 8.1: Clusters of participants involved in specification of alternatives and agenda-setting 128 viii Decision-Making under Ambiguity and Time Constraints Table 8.2: Participants’ affiliation 139 Table 8.3: Weighted importance of participants in Madrid Forum in terms of possible contribution due to time of incorporation, September 1999 to May 2009 141 Table 11.1: Strictness of non-smokers-protection in German states and partisan composition of government 199 Table 11.2: Strictness of original/amended state laws and partisan composition of government 204 Table A1: Original state laws 210 Table A2: Amended state laws 211 Table 12.1: Typology of evolution of ideas 217 Table 12.2: Ideal-typical policy trajectories 219 Table 12.3: Policy trajectory in Palme murder/quest for NCTU 225 List of Abbreviations Abbreviation Long form Meaning A ACF Advocacy coalition framework APE Actor-promoted event C CBI Confederation of British Industry CDU/CSU Christlich Demokratische Christian Democratic Union of Germany / Union Deutschlands /Christlich- Christian Social Party in Bavaria, German Soziale Union in Bayern parliamentary group CEER Council of European Energy Regulators Cf. confer compare CiU Convergència i Unió Convergence and Union, Catalan Nationalist Coalition D DEHOGA Deutscher Hotel- und Federal Hotel and Restaurant Association Gaststättenverband DHS Department of Homeland Security E EAEC European Atomic Energy Community EC European Commission eds editors Editors EEC European Economic Community e.g. exempli gratia for example EITC Earned Income Tax Credit ERC Esquerra Republicana de Republican Left of Catalonia Catalunya ERGEG European Regulators’ Group for Electricity and Gas etc. et cetera and the others et al. et alii and others F FAA Federal Aviation Administration FDP Freie Demokratische Partei Free Democratic Party of Germany FEMA Federal Emergency Management Agency FYROM Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia x Decision-Making under Ambiguity and Time Constraints G GC Garbage can GTE Gas Transmission Europe H HI Historical institutionalism I ibid. ibidem in the same place (book, etc.) ICS Institut Català de la Salut Catalan Health Institute ICV Iniciativa per Catalunya Verds Eco-socialist coalition Initiative for Catalonia Greens i.e. id est that is; in other words IP Institutional processualism M MP Member of Parliament MSF Multiple-streams framework N NAPE Non-actor-promoted event NAF Narrative policy-analysis framework NCTU National Counter-Terrorism Unit n.d. no date NDYP New Deal for Young People O OPA Oil Pollution Act P PET Punctuated equilibrium theory PKK Partiya Karkerên Kurdistan Kurdish Labour Party PP Partit Popular / Partido Popular Conservative People’s Party of Catalonia / Spain PSC Partit dels Socialistes